Basketball Free For All

Coming into this NBA season, the New Jersey Net’s expectations were low.  However, no one expected them to challenge ineptitude of historic proportions.  The Nets recent loss to the Dallas Mavericks resulted in being associated with the distinct dishonor of the worst start by any franchise in NBA history.  Worse than any expansion team or some historical bad franchise like the Clippers.  Even though they’ve recently broken through with a win, will putting their worst leg(s) forward hurt the team beyond this season?

Just How Bad Have Things Been?

To put it bluntly, the Nets have been awful.  They have the worst offensive rating (94.7), the worst points per game (87.60), the worst FG% (41.0) and the worst assists (16.25).  Most of their losses haven’t even been close as their point differential stands a little over 10 points per game (only Minnesota is worse).

To be fair, at one point they only had one original starter available for a period of time.  Devin Harris, Yi Jianlian, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Courtney Lee have all missed time for various aliments.  One of these players, CDR, was the first NBA player infected with the swine flu.  Prior to their first win against Charlotte, this foursome had missed 34 games out of a possible 72.  Don’t forget that it takes time to get back into the swing of things such as chemistry and conditioning.

Can’t also discount they’ve had some key role players miss the majority of the season:  Tony Battie, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes and Eduardo Najera.  Without a solid bench, it’s no wonder this patchwork team has been tragic against the rest of the NBA.  The New Jersey Nets probably wish they had as many healthy legs as their cheerleaders.

Did Management Stoke the Fire?

Coming into the season, the Nets had no established veterans – star or even borderline.  Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter had all been traded away.  However, a number of followers and writers proclaimed this was a good thing.  New Jersey had some promising young talent including a potentially fantastic PG and C.  More importantly, they would have about 25 million in available cap space for 2010.  As you’re probably aware, there are some fantastic names that may be available in free agency including Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire.

There does lie a problem with this thinking – it’s a year away.  For 2009, most experts predicted they’d finish at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.  Nothing new here as I’m sure most of us felt the same.  With obvious turmoil looming, why then was Lawrence Frank fired?

I guess it’s Lawrence’s fault that they wanted to go young and [clear] cap space and that everybody got hurt,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said Sunday night, before his team beat another one that is dangerously walking the 2010 tightrope, the Knicks.  “Maybe he was banging them up in practice, taking a baseball bat to them or something.  I just know that with the lineups he’s had to put on the floor, I don’t think any coach would’ve done anything better than he’s done.”

Source:  CBS Sports

Pretty hard to disagree with Stan’s assessment when considering the roster and all the injuries they’ve had to deal with thusfar.  However, were there issues going on out of the public eye?  Apparently, yes.

Sources said Nets management had come to believe that Frank had lost much of the team, a fact that has played out in losses to Denver and Sacramento in the past week. Once the Nets played so poorly against the Kings – believed to be the most winnable game on the trip – management decided it could no longer go on with Frank as coach.

Despite the return of point guard Devin Harris and shooting guard Courtney Lee, the Nets have played long stretches of uninspired basketball. “Most of the guys have tuned him out,” one source with direct knowledge of the locker room environment said. “This isn’t all Lawrence’s fault, but everyone knows that this can’t go on anymore.”

Source: Adrian Wojnarowski

Beat writers close to the Nets also observed that Frank and Devin Harris were not seeing eye to eye.

“In the times I’ve been here, I’ve been so (angry) because of a lack of effort,” Frank said last week. “But these guys are giving virtually everything they’ve got.”

But they didn’t give him the effort lately and he had to go. Now, the next coach will have to coax more team play out of Devin Harris, who had problems with Frank’s controlling style and has gained the reputation of being a solo act.

“Last year we had Vince Carter and he was a positive influence on the young guys,” said one team official. “But he’s not here, and it hurts because the coach and point guard are not on the same page.”

Source:  Mitch Lawrence

Consequently, it’s not surprising the Nets let Frank go.  At least, they fired him before they set the all-time record so that his name wouldn’t have to be associated with it.

Therefore, on the surface, it would seem they’ve made the correct moves.  There is one thing still bothering me though.  Did they consider the consequences if this team loses too many games?

Will a really bad record have long term effects?

We’ll examine two aspects to gauge possible long term affect:

1) How historically poor teams fare with rosters primarily consisting of talented youth in following years.

2) How many big time free agents signed with historically bad teams in following seasons.

1) First, we’ll examine how promising teams reacted to severely disappointing seasons.  Specifically, we’ll look at the 1993-94 Dallas Mavericks, 1999-00 Chicago Bulls and the 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers.  These teams were chosen because they were all in the midst of serious rebuilding with promising youth with a significant stretch of poor play.

The 1993-94 Mavericks team finished with a 13-69 record, but they were best known for posting a 2-39 record (OUCH) through the midpoint of the season.  The team wasn’t completely devoid of talent as they had two promising but young 19 point scorers in Jim Jackson and Jamal Mashburn.  So how dire did it get?

You hear about it and read about it, but words cannot really describe the hopelessness down here. At one point last night, the Dallas Mavericks called a 20-second timeout and spent a good 15 seconds trudging back to the huddle, defeated.

At courtside, owner Donald Carter sat in his hideous shirt and his jeans and his 10-gallon hat, cheering his team wildly while it was 15 down. The latest news? Jimmy Jackson says he’ll never, ever, EVER sign with the Mavs, no matter how many faxes they send.

Source:  Encyclopedia.com

Well Jim ended up staying (contracts will do that to you), but the Mavericks continued to flounder by averaging close to a 27-55 record the next 4 years.  This is impressive despite drafting win-producer Jason Kidd.  It seemed that the 3 J’s were destined to be part of a great future, but this wasn’t the case.  In 1996-97, all three were traded away as the team decided to go in a new direction under Don Nelson.

The 1999-00 Chicago Bulls finished with a 17-65 record, a few seasons removed from the Jordan era.  The team did have some promising rookies in Elton Brand and Ron Artest while bringing in John Starks and Bruce Bowen after trading away Toni Kukoc during the season.  The following season the Bulls drafted/acquired Brad Miller, Jamal Crawford, Marcus Fizer and Ron Mercer, but this time they won only 15 games including losing a franchise worst 21 straight games on the road.

Overall, the promise never amounted to anything as the team averaged a 22-60 during the four year stretch after the 1999-2000 season.  The overriding theme seemed to be concentrating on youth without enough experience as they fell into a pattern gambling on youth that failed to pan out including Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler and Jay Williams.

The 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers were able to collect some talent after two horrendous years.  However, Lamar Odom, Derek Anderson, Maurice Taylor and Michael Olowokandi only managed 15 wins while starting the season with a then NBA record of 17 straight losses.

On paper, this team’s untapped talent and balance — four players averaging more than 13 points per game, and arguably the largest collection of “he’s-got-great-upside” players — belies its results.

Source: NBA.com

In the following years, they garnered an impressive amount of talent on paper: Darius Miles, Quentin Richardson, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand and Andre Miller.  Guess what, all these young guys managed to contribute an average W/L record of 31-51 the following four years.

Now, there have been some deviations from the norm when franchises have decided to completely entrust their future in youth.  Namely, the Portland Trail Blazers come to mind.  After blowing up the Jail Blazers and some troubling players the next few years, they appear to be ready to challenge the league’s best for years to come.  However, it would appear it takes a special bunch of players like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge among others to make it happen.

Therefore, where does this leave the current Nets?  Coming into this year, there were no illusions, but there was hope that the Nets had put together a solid young core.  However, Dave Berri of The Wages of Win Journal made an interesting analysis of the Net’s franchise.  Basically, when Jason Kidd has not been on their team, they’ve been a bad team and his predictions don’t have anything changing that.

In addition, their terrible start is already affecting their morale:

“We don’t have any heart,” Chris Douglas-Roberts, the second-year guard, said. “It’s like we’re laying down. Weak. It’s a sign of weakness.”

Douglas-Roberts said the word was out on his team: “All you got to do is come out, punch them in the mouth and they’ll give up and run with their tail between their legs.”

Although the Nets were decimated by injuries early in the streak, they are nearly back to whole. Yet the fight they briefly showed in close defeats in early November is nonexistent.

“The spirit’s been broken a little bit,” said guard Devin Harris, the Nets’ lone All-Star.

Source:  New York Times

Uh-oh – hopefully, this is just a fleeting attitude and the Nets can put together a lot of solid performances.  Otherwise, you’ve got to believe they’ll continue to be tested mentally as other historically bad teams and it will take all their effort to stay together and focused on a common goal.

2) A second method of attempting to change years of bad fortune is through free agency.  A key signing or two could significantly change a team’s outlook.  However, there are multiple obstacles to this theory.  Poorly performing teams seem to have trouble acquiring or keeping top talent.

Let’s look at the top 30 players by salary (all over $14M). 15 of them are on teams that had over a .600 win% (50+ wins), while just 3 of them are on sub-.400 teams. In other words, the most successful teams employed 1.67 of these elite players on average, while the worst teams employed just 0.375 elite players.

Source: Hawkonomics

These statistics were compiled from last year’s payroll and performance.  One can gleam two likely scenarios for this disparity.  One, top players usually have choices in their destination; thus, they choose to play for a winning team that gives them a shot for a championship.  Two, poor performing teams usually suffer from the lack of capital necessary to sign major free agents.  Media outlets aren’t interested to pay top dollar to carry broadcasts while businesses and fans aren’t interested in sinking money for tickets, suites and other endeavors.

In one of the other historically bad teams we analyzed, the Chicago Bulls attempted to go the free agency route:

Remember, the summer of 2000 was supposed to be it. Actually, scratch that, Chicago had big designs on the summer of 1999, if we’re honest. And, if we’re to be completely accurate, the summer of 1998 was supposed to see all sorts of free agents flock to Chicago to eat up the team’s cap space. The summer of 1998 didn’t happen, for anyone. GM Jerry Krause saw the writing on the wall when most FAs signed with their old teams for more money in the truncated post-lockout offseason, and after talking up the 1999 offseason, he decided to make a few more cap-clearing moves and parlay that money (and two lottery picks) to the 2000 offseason.

Source:  ChicagoNow

As we can observe, the free agency route failed the post-Jordan Bulls.  Players obviously had no desire to come to Chicago despite the apparent available capital.  Therefore, what is there to ensure the same won’t happen to the Nets?  They’re off to a horrendous start, have historically been a well below average team and have put all their faith into a roster comprised of largely unproven young players.

However, the Nets do have two things in their favor.  First, it appears the long proposed move to Brooklyn will definitely happen.  Second, the Nets also have a new principal owner – Mikhail Prokhorov – one of the wealthiest men in the world.  Playing in the most dynamic sports city in American coupled with the deepest pockets can potentially bring in a top player or two.

They want a basketball team in Brooklyn – but not this one.

After the New Jersey Nets broke the record Wednesday night for starting an NBA season with the most consecutive losses – 18 – some borough sports fans had a message for owner Bruce Ratner as he tries to bring the team to Brooklyn: Start winning or don’t bother.

“I don’t want an 0-and-18 team coming to New York, especially to Brooklyn,” said Assane Ethols, 21, a Canarsie security guard. “It’s go hard or go home here.”

Source:  New York Daily News

It looks like a lot DOES ride on this season so let’s hope the current group starts playing better.

From the very outset of media day, the 2009 training camp and preseason has been interesting to say the least. The first shots were fired in the Bay but it didn’t take long for others to follow suit. The Warriors’ neighbors to the north, the Portland Trailblazers, have had their own drama brewing in the form of a bona fide position battle for the starting point guard spot.

After missing out on both Hedo Turkoglu and Paul Millsap earlier this summer, the Blazers faithful were getting restless. Kevin Pritchard had to make a move this offseason. Not only that, he had to make an impact move to appease the fan base and help take the Blazers to the next level. The ultimate aim was to make a move to help guide the young team deep into the postseason.

The move Pritchard eventually settled on was signing unrestricted free agent point guard Andre Miller to a three year deal ($14 million guaranteed during the first two years and a team option for the third year). Logically, it was a very good move. The Blazers are a very young team and can use the calming presence that the seasoned veteran floor general can provide, especially in the postseason.

Prior to signing Miller, it appeared that the Blazers were clearing out minutes for second year point guard Jerryd Bayless to get some additional run next season. Remember, they had sent the occasionally disgruntled Sergio Rodriguez to Sacramento in a draft day trade in order to acquire rookie prospect Jeff Pendergraph, thus opening up the backup point guard spot for JB.

Now, with two point guards on the roster that started last season, Portland is in the midst of an old fashioned position battler. Surprisingly, Steve Blake landed the first punch (and second, for that matter). And he did so by proxy, in the form of All-Star guard Brandon Roy.

At the very onset of training camp, Roy lobbied hard for Blake to maintain starter status next season.  Brandon extolled Blake’s selfless nature and talked about how comfortable he is playing alongside Blake. Round one, Blake. So it looked like franchise player B-Roy was not ready to welcome Miller to the starting unit just yet.

But not having Roy’s support right off the bat is something than can be overcome pretty easily for an old hand like Miller. In a further setback, Miller was the only player with a guaranteed contract in training camp who didn’t pass the Trail Blazers conditioning test. But that’s only part of the story. Blake completed the test in record-breaking fashion, positively dazzling head coach Nate McMillan in the process. Round two, Blake.

Suddenly, the position battle is starting to look grim for the new addition. Luckily for Miller, training camp provided an opportunity for Miller to get on the court with Roy and try and win his support. The early returns from Roy are extremely positive.

Roy said he and Miller formed an instant connection and the team “didn’t miss a beat” with them on the court together. Roy also praised the point guard’s unselfish play, deft passing, strong defense, versatility and basketball IQ. The chemistry between these two stars is one of the most pressing issues of training camp and Roy said a bond might develop faster than some expect.

The article also mentions the defensive versatility a Roy-Miller backcourt would provide in addition to the ability of both guards to play both the point and off guard positions. Improved defense is a surefire way to win Coach McMillian’s heart (they were 13th in defensive efficiency last season) and is one of his stated goals this offseason. If Miller were to make the Blazers’ offense even better too, it would be a scary thought indeed, as Portland already had the league’s most efficient offense last season. The Blazers’ offense gets slept on largely because of the slow pace at which Portland plays (last in the league in pace).

So who is likely to come out on top of Portland’s point guard position battle?

In the end, it seems very likely that it is only a matter of time before Andre wins the position battle for starting point guard in Rip City for one simple reason alone: money. Portland has recently become one of the best teams in the league as far as managing their money despite the fact that Darius Miles is the Blazers highest paid player until Brandon Roy’s maximum salary contract extension takes effect in 201o-11.

For the Blazers to commit $21 million to Andre Miller over the next three years says that they are committed to playing him and that he is going to be key to taking them to the next level. With Blake scheduled to be a free agent next season, his future with the franchise at this point is very much in doubt.

Miller has the front office behind him, is slowly winning franchise player Roy over and has a good chance of winning Coach McMillian over as well. If you ask me, the smart money is on Andre Miller to win out the starting point guard position battle and to be in the starting five on opening night.