Everyone ready for the home stretch? We’ve got 3 weeks left before most fantasy playoffs begin in Week 22. However, don’t view this as a time to coast as it could be more important than ever to pay attention to your teams. Whether you’re fighting to make the playoffs or simply looking to make those final tweaks to bring home a championship, the moves you make now could potentially decide your entire seasons. So FOCUS! 
Before we get to the good stuff, I just wanted to mention that we’ve experienced some trouble on the website as hackers thought we were an enviable target. We have to assume they were unhappy with Plonden’s advice, but regardless, we lost Deebo’s post/comments and I’ve had to redo this week’s preview (that’s why it was late). Regardless, lesson to be learned – BACK UP everything you do somewhere!
After week twelve, we’ve officially reached the half-way point of the regular season, which means it is mid-season adjustment time. Now is a perfect time to evaluate your team’s cumulative performance and assess your strengths and weaknesses. For head-to-head leagues, check your punting strategy and consider whether it makes sense to adjust your strategy going forward. For roto leagues, now might be time to consider big trades to shore up any weaknesses. Any team can be improved with the right moves; just don’t make the classic mistake of making a move for the sake of, well, making a move.
Coming into this NBA season, the New Jersey Net’s expectations were low. However, no one expected them to challenge ineptitude of historic proportions. The Nets recent loss to the Dallas Mavericks resulted in being associated with the distinct dishonor of the worst start by any franchise in NBA history. Worse than any expansion team or some historical bad franchise like the Clippers. Even though they’ve recently broken through with a win, will putting their worst leg(s) forward hurt the team beyond this season?
Just How Bad Have Things Been?
To put it bluntly, the Nets have been awful. They have the worst offensive rating (94.7), the worst points per game (87.60), the worst FG% (41.0) and the worst assists (16.25). Most of their losses haven’t even been close as their point differential stands a little over 10 points per game (only Minnesota is worse).
To be fair, at one point they only had one original starter available for a period of time. Devin Harris, Yi Jianlian, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Courtney Lee have all missed time for various aliments. One of these players, CDR, was the first NBA player infected with the swine flu. Prior to their first win against Charlotte, this foursome had missed 34 games out of a possible 72. Don’t forget that it takes time to get back into the swing of things such as chemistry and conditioning.
Can’t also discount they’ve had some key role players miss the majority of the season: Tony Battie, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes and Eduardo Najera. Without a solid bench, it’s no wonder this patchwork team has been tragic against the rest of the NBA. The New Jersey Nets probably wish they had as many healthy legs as their cheerleaders.
Did Management Stoke the Fire?
Coming into the season, the Nets had no established veterans – star or even borderline. Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter had all been traded away. However, a number of followers and writers proclaimed this was a good thing. New Jersey had some promising young talent including a potentially fantastic PG and C. More importantly, they would have about 25 million in available cap space for 2010. As you’re probably aware, there are some fantastic names that may be available in free agency including Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire.
There does lie a problem with this thinking – it’s a year away. For 2009, most experts predicted they’d finish at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Nothing new here as I’m sure most of us felt the same. With obvious turmoil looming, why then was Lawrence Frank fired?
I guess it’s Lawrence’s fault that they wanted to go young and [clear] cap space and that everybody got hurt,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said Sunday night, before his team beat another one that is dangerously walking the 2010 tightrope, the Knicks. “Maybe he was banging them up in practice, taking a baseball bat to them or something. I just know that with the lineups he’s had to put on the floor, I don’t think any coach would’ve done anything better than he’s done.”
Source: CBS Sports
Pretty hard to disagree with Stan’s assessment when considering the roster and all the injuries they’ve had to deal with thusfar. However, were there issues going on out of the public eye? Apparently, yes.
Sources said Nets management had come to believe that Frank had lost much of the team, a fact that has played out in losses to Denver and Sacramento in the past week. Once the Nets played so poorly against the Kings – believed to be the most winnable game on the trip – management decided it could no longer go on with Frank as coach.
Despite the return of point guard Devin Harris and shooting guard Courtney Lee, the Nets have played long stretches of uninspired basketball. “Most of the guys have tuned him out,” one source with direct knowledge of the locker room environment said. “This isn’t all Lawrence’s fault, but everyone knows that this can’t go on anymore.”
Source: Adrian Wojnarowski
Beat writers close to the Nets also observed that Frank and Devin Harris were not seeing eye to eye.
“In the times I’ve been here, I’ve been so (angry) because of a lack of effort,” Frank said last week. “But these guys are giving virtually everything they’ve got.”
But they didn’t give him the effort lately and he had to go. Now, the next coach will have to coax more team play out of Devin Harris, who had problems with Frank’s controlling style and has gained the reputation of being a solo act.
“Last year we had Vince Carter and he was a positive influence on the young guys,” said one team official. “But he’s not here, and it hurts because the coach and point guard are not on the same page.”
Source: Mitch Lawrence
Consequently, it’s not surprising the Nets let Frank go. At least, they fired him before they set the all-time record so that his name wouldn’t have to be associated with it.
Therefore, on the surface, it would seem they’ve made the correct moves. There is one thing still bothering me though. Did they consider the consequences if this team loses too many games?
Will a really bad record have long term effects?
We’ll examine two aspects to gauge possible long term affect:
1) How historically poor teams fare with rosters primarily consisting of talented youth in following years.
2) How many big time free agents signed with historically bad teams in following seasons.
1) First, we’ll examine how promising teams reacted to severely disappointing seasons. Specifically, we’ll look at the 1993-94 Dallas Mavericks, 1999-00 Chicago Bulls and the 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers. These teams were chosen because they were all in the midst of serious rebuilding with promising youth with a significant stretch of poor play.
The 1993-94 Mavericks team finished with a 13-69 record, but they were best known for posting a 2-39 record (OUCH) through the midpoint of the season. The team wasn’t completely devoid of talent as they had two promising but young 19 point scorers in Jim Jackson and Jamal Mashburn. So how dire did it get?
You hear about it and read about it, but words cannot really describe the hopelessness down here. At one point last night, the Dallas Mavericks called a 20-second timeout and spent a good 15 seconds trudging back to the huddle, defeated.
At courtside, owner Donald Carter sat in his hideous shirt and his jeans and his 10-gallon hat, cheering his team wildly while it was 15 down. The latest news? Jimmy Jackson says he’ll never, ever, EVER sign with the Mavs, no matter how many faxes they send.
Source: Encyclopedia.com
Well Jim ended up staying (contracts will do that to you), but the Mavericks continued to flounder by averaging close to a 27-55 record the next 4 years. This is impressive despite drafting win-producer Jason Kidd. It seemed that the 3 J’s were destined to be part of a great future, but this wasn’t the case. In 1996-97, all three were traded away as the team decided to go in a new direction under Don Nelson.
The 1999-00 Chicago Bulls finished with a 17-65 record, a few seasons removed from the Jordan era. The team did have some promising rookies in Elton Brand and Ron Artest while bringing in John Starks and Bruce Bowen after trading away Toni Kukoc during the season. The following season the Bulls drafted/acquired Brad Miller, Jamal Crawford, Marcus Fizer and Ron Mercer, but this time they won only 15 games including losing a franchise worst 21 straight games on the road.
Overall, the promise never amounted to anything as the team averaged a 22-60 during the four year stretch after the 1999-2000 season. The overriding theme seemed to be concentrating on youth without enough experience as they fell into a pattern gambling on youth that failed to pan out including Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler and Jay Williams.
The 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers were able to collect some talent after two horrendous years. However, Lamar Odom, Derek Anderson, Maurice Taylor and Michael Olowokandi only managed 15 wins while starting the season with a then NBA record of 17 straight losses.
On paper, this team’s untapped talent and balance — four players averaging more than 13 points per game, and arguably the largest collection of “he’s-got-great-upside” players — belies its results.
Source: NBA.com
In the following years, they garnered an impressive amount of talent on paper: Darius Miles, Quentin Richardson, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand and Andre Miller. Guess what, all these young guys managed to contribute an average W/L record of 31-51 the following four years.
Now, there have been some deviations from the norm when franchises have decided to completely entrust their future in youth. Namely, the Portland Trail Blazers come to mind. After blowing up the Jail Blazers and some troubling players the next few years, they appear to be ready to challenge the league’s best for years to come. However, it would appear it takes a special bunch of players like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge among others to make it happen.
Therefore, where does this leave the current Nets? Coming into this year, there were no illusions, but there was hope that the Nets had put together a solid young core. However, Dave Berri of The Wages of Win Journal made an interesting analysis of the Net’s franchise. Basically, when Jason Kidd has not been on their team, they’ve been a bad team and his predictions don’t have anything changing that.
In addition, their terrible start is already affecting their morale:
“We don’t have any heart,” Chris Douglas-Roberts, the second-year guard, said. “It’s like we’re laying down. Weak. It’s a sign of weakness.”
Douglas-Roberts said the word was out on his team: “All you got to do is come out, punch them in the mouth and they’ll give up and run with their tail between their legs.”
Although the Nets were decimated by injuries early in the streak, they are nearly back to whole. Yet the fight they briefly showed in close defeats in early November is nonexistent.
“The spirit’s been broken a little bit,” said guard Devin Harris, the Nets’ lone All-Star.
Source: New York Times
Uh-oh – hopefully, this is just a fleeting attitude and the Nets can put together a lot of solid performances. Otherwise, you’ve got to believe they’ll continue to be tested mentally as other historically bad teams and it will take all their effort to stay together and focused on a common goal.
2) A second method of attempting to change years of bad fortune is through free agency. A key signing or two could significantly change a team’s outlook. However, there are multiple obstacles to this theory. Poorly performing teams seem to have trouble acquiring or keeping top talent.
Let’s look at the top 30 players by salary (all over $14M). 15 of them are on teams that had over a .600 win% (50+ wins), while just 3 of them are on sub-.400 teams. In other words, the most successful teams employed 1.67 of these elite players on average, while the worst teams employed just 0.375 elite players.
Source: Hawkonomics
These statistics were compiled from last year’s payroll and performance. One can gleam two likely scenarios for this disparity. One, top players usually have choices in their destination; thus, they choose to play for a winning team that gives them a shot for a championship. Two, poor performing teams usually suffer from the lack of capital necessary to sign major free agents. Media outlets aren’t interested to pay top dollar to carry broadcasts while businesses and fans aren’t interested in sinking money for tickets, suites and other endeavors.
In one of the other historically bad teams we analyzed, the Chicago Bulls attempted to go the free agency route:
Remember, the summer of 2000 was supposed to be it. Actually, scratch that, Chicago had big designs on the summer of 1999, if we’re honest. And, if we’re to be completely accurate, the summer of 1998 was supposed to see all sorts of free agents flock to Chicago to eat up the team’s cap space. The summer of 1998 didn’t happen, for anyone. GM Jerry Krause saw the writing on the wall when most FAs signed with their old teams for more money in the truncated post-lockout offseason, and after talking up the 1999 offseason, he decided to make a few more cap-clearing moves and parlay that money (and two lottery picks) to the 2000 offseason.
Source: ChicagoNow
As we can observe, the free agency route failed the post-Jordan Bulls. Players obviously had no desire to come to Chicago despite the apparent available capital. Therefore, what is there to ensure the same won’t happen to the Nets? They’re off to a horrendous start, have historically been a well below average team and have put all their faith into a roster comprised of largely unproven young players.
However, the Nets do have two things in their favor. First, it appears the long proposed move to Brooklyn will definitely happen. Second, the Nets also have a new principal owner – Mikhail Prokhorov – one of the wealthiest men in the world. Playing in the most dynamic sports city in American coupled with the deepest pockets can potentially bring in a top player or two.
They want a basketball team in Brooklyn – but not this one.
After the New Jersey Nets broke the record Wednesday night for starting an NBA season with the most consecutive losses – 18 – some borough sports fans had a message for owner Bruce Ratner as he tries to bring the team to Brooklyn: Start winning or don’t bother.
“I don’t want an 0-and-18 team coming to New York, especially to Brooklyn,” said Assane Ethols, 21, a Canarsie security guard. “It’s go hard or go home here.”
Source: New York Daily News
It looks like a lot DOES ride on this season so let’s hope the current group starts playing better.
As expected, week one was full of surprises and story lines with some of the League’s young players making serious noise. Denver’s Carmelo Anthony is off to an head start in the battle to secure this season’s scoring title, averaging 35.5 points in his first two games. New York’s Danilo Gallinari is proving why he deserved to be a lottery pick (and sleeper) draining a whopping five treys per in his first two games. Milwaukee’s Brandon Jennings put everyone on notice with his near triple double NBA debut (17 points, 9 rebounds, 9 assists).
With one exciting week down and many more to go, it’s never too soon to start planning for next week.
Week Two Schedules
Four Games: ATL, BOS, DEN, DET, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, NOR, NYK, ORL, PHO, SAC, UTA, WAS
Three Games: CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, OKC, PHI, POR, TOR
Two Games: SAS
Cut List
Antonio McDyess — It looks like it is going to take a front court injury to make Dice fantasy relevant this season. Feel free to cut bait on Antonio for a hot hand. Decision that much easier with the Spurs the only team playing two games next week (against Utah and Portland on the road; both teams play much better at home).
Peja Stojakovic — Apparently people drafted Peja this season and are still holding on to him (60 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues). Look for cheap threes elsewhere.
Corey Maggette — Maggette is still owned in the majority of Yahoo! leagues, despite his terrible start. While still providing help in free throw percentage, Corey has been a drag on field goal percentage due to his relentless chucking. In case you need any more convincing, Maggette still plays for fantasy basketball’s most frustrating coach, Don Nelson.
Watch List / Add List
* Note: Percentages in parentheses denote ownership rates in Yahoo! leagues.
Larry Hughes (38%) — While certainly not known for his shot selection (well, actually he is, for all the wrong reasons), Hughes is certainly a scorer. Hughes 2009-10 debut against the Sixers was a nice showing, dropping 18 points on .636/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, 1 block and 4 turnovers. Still not convinced? Hughes is in a contract year this season (see 2004-05 season).
Kelenna Azubuike (37%) — Azubuike has quietly put together the same line that put him in the top-100 last season, giving him a Basketball Monster rank of 65th in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 71st in per game value. Kelenna will get you scoring on good percentages and will have a few big games this season. He also gets you solid defensive production from a guard-eligible player, which is always a plus.
Marreese Speights (30%) — If any of the bigs in Philly have benefited from Eddie Jordan’s much-heralded Princeton offense, it appears to be Speights (BBM: 38th; Ziguana 41st). Averaging a 16.7 points on a scorching .750/.824 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 7.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers per game. Obviously his field goal percentage will come back to earth but his offensive aggresiveness is paying dividends for owners. Pick him up while he’s hot.
Anthony Parker (30%) — With Delonte West making his triumphant return to the Cavs’ rotation, Parker’s top-100 fantasy value now faces stiffer competition. Definitely a situation to monitor and both players could end up canceling each others’ value out in the long in the dreaded time-share situation.
Ty Lawson (25%) — Think any teams are regretting passing on Lawson yet? If not, they will be. Outside of deep leagues and keeper/dynasty formats, Lawson is another guy to keep on your radar. If veteran point guard Chauncey Billups misses any time, run to the waiver wire and pickup Ty.
Hakim Warrick (24%) –Warrick will most likely carve out a decent amount of minutes in the Bucks’ front court rotation. Whether starting or providing a spark off the bench, Warrick should provide end of the bench fantasy value. Worth a speculative add if you have dead weight on your roster.
Terrence Williams (19%) — Another guy to pickup for speculative purposes is Terrence Williams. Playing for the woeful New Jersey Nets, he is slated to get plenty of burn as the Nets look to maximize their ping-pong balls next summer.
Chris Douglas-Roberts (11%) — Similar to Williams, CDR is also due for some big burn this season and has a chance to muscle his way into the top-100 (currently ranked 115th in per game value according to BBM and 111th according to Ziguana). With Devin Harris out for a few games with a minor injury (surprise, surprise), CDR should get a slight boost of minutes in the short term.
Stay the Course
D.J. Augustin — Augustin’s season has been a bit of a roller coaster already. He (and the Bobcats in general) laid an egg in Boston for their season opener. He followed up with a nice scoring outing against the New York Knicks, which should be taken with a hearty dose of salt. With that being said, it is a little too early to discard D.J. to the trash heap just yet. Give him another week before making any rash decisions.
Chris Andersen — The Birdman has disappointed fantasy managers so far this season. He was drafted as a one category contributer and has provided below average returns on managers; investment (0.5 blocks per game versus 2.5 last season). The blocks will return, as Andersen’s role is to be a game changing defender in the paint for the Nuggets.
Injury Adds
Rafer Alston — As alluded to earlier, Harris is out for an unknown amount of time with a ticky-tack injury. Nothing new here. In his absence, Alston stepped up dropping 20 points on .727/.500 percent shooting, 3 threes, 2 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 steal, o blocks and 4 turnovers against the Wizards on Halloween. Skip to My Lou is a nice short term add for scoring, assists and threes while Harris nurses his wounds.
Buy Low
John Salmons — At this point in the season, there are probably a decent amount of fantasy managers that are nervous with Salmons’ performance. His .172 field goal percentage is probably at the top of their list of worries. However, keep in mind that Salmons is still getting adjusted to being the Man with Ben Gordon now playing in Detroit. It is important to note that the Bulls only two games so far this season have come against Boston and San Antonio, two of the league’s best defensive teams out there. Time to send out lowball offers to Salmons owners before he drops his signature lines.
Sell High
Tim Duncan — It is completely conceivable that Duncan has already had his best game of the season against the Chicago Bulls (28 points on .684/.500 percent shooting, 16 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks and 2 turnovers). The Chicago game should be considered an aberration with his other two performances more likely the norm. As the Spurs clinch a playoff spot, Duncan’s minutes will only decrease and surprise DNP’s will make him harder and harder to move. Sell him now based on his monster second game if you can find a decent deal.
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