Basketball Free For All

Well, week 2 has come and gone but at a major cost as a number of key players went down.  Among some of the bigger names slated to miss a ton of time are Yi Jianlian, Kevin Martin, Tyrus Thomas and Tayshaun Prince.  Tony Parker, Kenyon Martin and Andris Biedrins look to miss at least a game or two themselves.  Even the swine flu decided to stop by and say hello by claiming the first victim from the NBA – Chris Douglas-Roberts.  In fact, it’s gotten so bad for the New Jersey Nets that they have the league minimum available right now (8) with Brook Lopez the only starter left standing.

Week Three Schedules

Four Games: DAL, GSW, HOU, LAC, MIN, NOH, OKC, PHI, PHO, POR, TOR, UTA

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DEN, DET, LAL, MEM, MIA, NJN, NYK, ORL, SAS

Two Games: IND, MIL, SAC, WAS

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Quentin Richardson — The slimmed down version of Q might be worth owning this year as the Heat are in need of consistent production at SF while he plays for another contract.  Over the last 3 games, he’s averaged over 16 pts, 3 3ptm and 9 boards.  Naturally, he’ll on occasion put up some horrid efficiency numbers, but it shouldn’t be as bad as years past.

Beno Udrih — Coming into the year, I’m pretty sure even Slovenian fans wrote him off.  However, with Kmart going down in flames again, it’s opened the door for Beno.  The last 4 games he’s averaged a little over 16 pts, 1 3ptm and 4 assists on solid percentages.

Chuck Hayes/Carl Landry — Decided to pair up this duo as they both play for the Rockets giving solid boards and FG%.  Go with Hayes if you’re looking for a significant boost in steals (2.3 per game) or choose Landry for points scored (14.3 per game).

Anthony Morrow — Last years 3 point shooting wunderkind, has been on a decent 3 game roll knocking in 17.7 points per game to go along with 2.7 threes.  With Golden State struggling out of the gate, I expect Amo’s role to increase at some point.  GSW will continue to shop Sjax behind closed doors while Nellie will slowly become more drawn to Morrow’s proficient shooting with the passing of each loss.

Corey Brewer — If you don’t mind a horrendous FG%, this former Gator is probably for you.  He’s currently averaging 12.7 points, 4.3 boards, 2.3 steals and almost 1 block a game.  In addition, he’s hit 4 3’s the last two games.

Cut List

Ryan Anderson — Nice run by the kid but expect inconsistent production when he finally gets over his ankle injury.  Vince Carter will be back and Rashard Lewis not too far behind him pushing the new Pat Garrity back to the bench where he’ll have to fight for minutes with Bass, Pietrus and Barnes.

Allen Iverson — Well, the AI experiment in Memphis didn’t last long.  Just a few games under his belt, and Allen is already grumbling about his role.  Also, it can’t be anything good that he just left the team indefinitely to deal with a personal matter.  If it was truly a death in the family or something similar, don’t you think that news would have been released as to avoid speculation?

Martell Webster/Travis Outlaw — It was already bad enough both of these guys were sucking out each other’s fantasy values with a pretty solid timeshare.  Now, it’s gotten progressively worse as Nate McMillan has decided to go with a 3 guard lineup.  With both of them coming off the bench for at least the short term, I’m sure you can find a better option on the waiver wire.

Watch List

Peja Stojakovic — Earlier today, the Hornets stated that Peja will be moved back into the starting lineup.  Not too surprising considering the lackadaisical play by the Hornets wingmen (especially Julian Wright).  Not suggesting he be picked up yet as he still looks stiff as a board and doesn’t offer much to fantasy owners if his shot isn’t dropping.

Omri Casspi — This Israeli-born player seems to be going places.  First, Garcia goes down with a significant injury and then Desmond Mason does so poorly that the Kings just recently decided to waive him.  During preseason, those close to the team raved about his intensity and ability to put the ball in the basket.  Well not much has changed so far in the regular season as he’s definitely worth an add in deeper leagues.  In the near future, he might be worth a pickup in standard leagues too if the Kings decide to limit Nocioni at SF.

Stay the Course

Anthony Randolph — Yeah, many of us who decided to bite the forbidden fruit from the Nellie tree are currently paying the price.  However, I don’t advocate jumping ship quite yet.  First, it appears that Randolph will still manage to get on the court as both Biedrins and Turiaf are struggling with injuries.  Second, in what already looks like a lost season, fans and management might push Nellie to play the young guys as to better prepare them for following seasons.

Deep League Specials

Taj Gibson — When Tyrus Thomas’ bone snapped, Gibson became an intriguing pickup in deeper leagues.  Del Negro prefers to keep Brad Miller as the first big coming off the bench so Taj will get some decent run.  Although he is still quite raw, he has some nice athleticism that should translate to some points, boards and defensive numbers.

Ersan Ilyasova — Say yes to Ersan!  The Bucks’ forwards have not surprisingly been a mess to start the year.  However, Ilyasova offers some hope as he appears to be getting his feet under him in the NBA.  Ilyasova has the ability to fill up the stat sheet as witnessed by his performance in the recent European Championship.

Marcus Thornton — By default, Marcus appears to be in line for an increased role in New Orleans.  Recently, Morris Peterson was put on the inactive list (CHEER) due to his poor play.  Now Byron Scott is giving Devin Brown a shot.  Well, with Devin, it’s only a question of when.  Since Scott has announced Thornton is next on the list, I wouldn’t be surprised if Marcus starts getting solid run by the end of this week.

The NBA basketball season is underway and with that a number of us are participating in various fantasy leagues.  It’s obviously an exciting time as we get to see how our newly drafted teams kick off the year.  A few will be happy with the initial results, but most of us will have qualms about at least a player or two on our roster.  To add to the confusion, there are several guys just sitting on the waiver wire begging to picked up after putting up an enticing line or two.  Should we jump the gun and pick them up?  Or will we regret our decision and feel like the league’s laughing stock?

Since most of us play in standard sized leagues (12 teams each with 13 players), I’m going to gear the examples in this article towards them.  Before you pick up that alluring free agent, I want you to ask yourself 3 questions.

First, regarding the player in question, will he have an opportunity to put up serviceable numbers consistently for at least the near future?  The main thing you want to examine is minutes.  Inconsistent time on the court is almost always going to lead to spotty production.

There are numerous indicators that point to solid time.  Perhaps the player just fell into a solid role due to a teammate’s injury.  Maybe he emerged as the leading candidate from a position battle.  Or he could be a young guy or a non-playoff team who improved significantly over the the summer.

Off the top of my head, some guys who come to mind so far this season that fit the bill are Andray Blatche, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Andres Nocioni, Danilo Gallinari, Ben Wallace, Corey Brewer, Roy Hibbert and Channing Frye.

On the other hand, guys like DeJuan Blair, Ty Lawson, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams and Jason Williams should probably be left on the waiver wire.  They have all had a solid line or two, but in all their cases it is unlikely to continue.  For instance, promising rookies like Blair and Lawson have had some eye-popping numbers but it came in blowouts where the starters played significantly less.

Next, you need to ask what is the free agent’s prior history? There are always a few players in the league who continue to entice owners year after year because they show a glimpse of good value.  For example, this season, already Larry Hughes, Erick Dampier and Travis Outlaw have probably lured a few fantasy managers to pick them up.

However, it’s probably not a good idea.  Hughes has a solid history of putting up an occasionally stellar line the last few years, but he can never sustain any consistent production.  Moreover, he is currently getting quite a bit of run at the expense of Nate Robinson’s short term injury.  Don’t forget Larry DEFINITELY-NOT-A Legend, made 1 of 23 shots in preseason.

Erick Dampier has currently enjoyed several solid lines, but I don’t think he’s turned back the clock.  His numbers have been in steady decline since the Mavericks landed him 5 years.  Also, newly signed Drew Gooden has missed several games due to a pulled rib cage muscle.

Travis Outlaw has the ability to score in bunches, but Portland is so deep that even with Nicolas Batum’s shoulder injury he’ll be more off than on.  Martell Webster is still the starter and most nights they’ll cancel out one another’s value with the dreaded fantasy time share.

Third, how useful will the free agent be on my team? For Rotisserie and Points leagues, this may not be that large of an issue since every player has similar value to every other manager in the league.  However, if you’ve already got two solid 3 point shooting guards on your bench, does it really make sense to add a third and thereby really limiting your team’s flexibility?

On the contrary, in Head to Head leagues, managers need to also examine whether the free agent will help their strengths.  Many owners don’t (and rightfully so) try to be competitive in all the categories in their league.  It just doesn’t make sense to try to win them all when it substantially reduces the odds of winning the majority of categories week in and week out.  Thus, when picking up a free agent, a manager should always be aware of his strengths and improve on those, rather than fruitlessly worry about their weaknesses.

Naturally, you should ignore the last two paragraphs if the free agent in question looks like they’ll post top 100 value for an extended period of time.  Even though the player may not suit your team, he will surely be coveted by someone else and would make excellent trade bait.

Over the course of the season, I’m going to try to touch on a few subjects focusing on particular strategies everyone should be aware of in fantasy basketball.  If any of you would like to see a particular topic discussed, feel free to email me or leave a comment at the end of the article.