Wondering what will be the effects of all the major deals prior to today’s deadline? Well, worry no more as Justin and I are here to help clear up any confusion. I’ll handle the relevant fantasy perspective while Justin will tackle the realistic implications in a subsequent article. If we happen to miss anything or you simply have a question, as always, feel free to leave a comment below.
Well, week 2 has come and gone but at a major cost as a number of key players went down. Among some of the bigger names slated to miss a ton of time are Yi Jianlian, Kevin Martin, Tyrus Thomas and Tayshaun Prince. Tony Parker, Kenyon Martin and Andris Biedrins look to miss at least a game or two themselves. Even the swine flu decided to stop by and say hello by claiming the first victim from the NBA – Chris Douglas-Roberts. In fact, it’s gotten so bad for the New Jersey Nets that they have the league minimum available right now (8) with Brook Lopez the only starter left standing.
Week Three Schedules
Four Games: DAL, GSW, HOU, LAC, MIN, NOH, OKC, PHI, PHO, POR, TOR, UTA
Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DEN, DET, LAL, MEM, MIA, NJN, NYK, ORL, SAS
Two Games: IND, MIL, SAC, WAS
Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)
Quentin Richardson — The slimmed down version of Q might be worth owning this year as the Heat are in need of consistent production at SF while he plays for another contract. Over the last 3 games, he’s averaged over 16 pts, 3 3ptm and 9 boards. Naturally, he’ll on occasion put up some horrid efficiency numbers, but it shouldn’t be as bad as years past.
Beno Udrih — Coming into the year, I’m pretty sure even Slovenian fans wrote him off. However, with Kmart going down in flames again, it’s opened the door for Beno. The last 4 games he’s averaged a little over 16 pts, 1 3ptm and 4 assists on solid percentages.
Chuck Hayes/Carl Landry — Decided to pair up this duo as they both play for the Rockets giving solid boards and FG%. Go with Hayes if you’re looking for a significant boost in steals (2.3 per game) or choose Landry for points scored (14.3 per game).
Anthony Morrow — Last years 3 point shooting wunderkind, has been on a decent 3 game roll knocking in 17.7 points per game to go along with 2.7 threes. With Golden State struggling out of the gate, I expect Amo’s role to increase at some point. GSW will continue to shop Sjax behind closed doors while Nellie will slowly become more drawn to Morrow’s proficient shooting with the passing of each loss.
Corey Brewer — If you don’t mind a horrendous FG%, this former Gator is probably for you. He’s currently averaging 12.7 points, 4.3 boards, 2.3 steals and almost 1 block a game. In addition, he’s hit 4 3’s the last two games.
Cut List
Ryan Anderson — Nice run by the kid but expect inconsistent production when he finally gets over his ankle injury. Vince Carter will be back and Rashard Lewis not too far behind him pushing the new Pat Garrity back to the bench where he’ll have to fight for minutes with Bass, Pietrus and Barnes.
Allen Iverson — Well, the AI experiment in Memphis didn’t last long. Just a few games under his belt, and Allen is already grumbling about his role. Also, it can’t be anything good that he just left the team indefinitely to deal with a personal matter. If it was truly a death in the family or something similar, don’t you think that news would have been released as to avoid speculation?
Martell Webster/Travis Outlaw — It was already bad enough both of these guys were sucking out each other’s fantasy values with a pretty solid timeshare. Now, it’s gotten progressively worse as Nate McMillan has decided to go with a 3 guard lineup. With both of them coming off the bench for at least the short term, I’m sure you can find a better option on the waiver wire.
Watch List
Peja Stojakovic — Earlier today, the Hornets stated that Peja will be moved back into the starting lineup. Not too surprising considering the lackadaisical play by the Hornets wingmen (especially Julian Wright). Not suggesting he be picked up yet as he still looks stiff as a board and doesn’t offer much to fantasy owners if his shot isn’t dropping.
Omri Casspi — This Israeli-born player seems to be going places. First, Garcia goes down with a significant injury and then Desmond Mason does so poorly that the Kings just recently decided to waive him. During preseason, those close to the team raved about his intensity and ability to put the ball in the basket. Well not much has changed so far in the regular season as he’s definitely worth an add in deeper leagues. In the near future, he might be worth a pickup in standard leagues too if the Kings decide to limit Nocioni at SF.
Stay the Course
Anthony Randolph — Yeah, many of us who decided to bite the forbidden fruit from the Nellie tree are currently paying the price. However, I don’t advocate jumping ship quite yet. First, it appears that Randolph will still manage to get on the court as both Biedrins and Turiaf are struggling with injuries. Second, in what already looks like a lost season, fans and management might push Nellie to play the young guys as to better prepare them for following seasons.
Deep League Specials
Taj Gibson — When Tyrus Thomas’ bone snapped, Gibson became an intriguing pickup in deeper leagues. Del Negro prefers to keep Brad Miller as the first big coming off the bench so Taj will get some decent run. Although he is still quite raw, he has some nice athleticism that should translate to some points, boards and defensive numbers.
Ersan Ilyasova — Say yes to Ersan! The Bucks’ forwards have not surprisingly been a mess to start the year. However, Ilyasova offers some hope as he appears to be getting his feet under him in the NBA. Ilyasova has the ability to fill up the stat sheet as witnessed by his performance in the recent European Championship.
Marcus Thornton — By default, Marcus appears to be in line for an increased role in New Orleans. Recently, Morris Peterson was put on the inactive list (CHEER) due to his poor play. Now Byron Scott is giving Devin Brown a shot. Well, with Devin, it’s only a question of when. Since Scott has announced Thornton is next on the list, I wouldn’t be surprised if Marcus starts getting solid run by the end of this week.
Houston, do we have a problem? Perhaps. This season, the Rockets will be starting the year without any star players on the court. Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are, what else, taking another injury vacation. Ron Artest left town for the greener pastures of Los Angeles. So what can the beloved Rocket faithful expect from a team full of solid complimentary players and a bunch of unprovens?
John Hollinger predicts they’ll finish 9th in the Western Conference while ESPN analysts as a whole have them finishing around 10th. Dave Berri of Wages of Win Journal thinks they have a good chance of finishing with over 40 wins and gives them a chance to make the playoffs.
Why are these NBA analysts so high on a team that seems to be lacking so much firepower? Well, they’re believers in the rest of the roster. The Rockets have a lot of excellent complimentary players in Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry and Luis Scola. Specifically, these guys, coined ‘low usage high efficiency players’, all post above average Wins Produced by doing a lot of stuff outside of putting up huge scoring numbers.
Many of these analysts think they’ll be able to keep up similar production with a simple increase in minutes. Herein lies the problem in my opinion. Asking a few solid players to step up is probably sound. Asking most of these low usage guys to become high usage guys? I have a hard time believing it’s as simple as a linear equation. They are going to have to spend more time on the court but produce AT LEAST at the same rate as prior years. Don’t forget more than a few of them are also going to have to develop a high volume FG mentality.
When you remove both a McGrady and Ming, what happens?
Opposing defenses now don’t have to concentrate on the highly skilled offensive player(s). All of a sudden, the complimentary guys become the focal point as they can’t pass off the ball anymore to the star to make something happen. The onus is in Ariza’s, Scola’s or whomever’s hands to beat that shot clock. Now, these players who are not adept at handling solid defensive pressure will be called on to make plays possession after possession.
To help illustrate this fact, I took a look at 2006-07 Rockets team? Why? They had a multitude of solid win producers like the current Rocket’s team, but more importantly, had 5 games in which both McGrady and Yao Ming missed. Dikembe Mutombo, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Luther Head, Rafer Alston, Kirk Snyder and Juwan Howard were the 7 primary guys besides the two stars. Based on their Wins Produced, they should have been close to an average team coming in with 37 wins.
Do you know what they did in those 5 games? They shot a putrid 38.3% (150-392) from the field and posted an abysmal assists to turnover ratio (71 assists compared to 65 turnovers). Since they were solid players, they were able to stay close in most of the games (avg loss of 7.2 points) and were only out-rebounded by 4.4 boards. However, not to win a single game against squads like the 40-win Clippers, 32-win Portland or, my favorite, a 24-win Boston Celtic team? Yikes!
This years Rocket’s main 7 (Ariza, Battier, Hayes, Landry, Scola, Lowry and Aaron Brooks) have a combined 36.2 wins based on last year’s statistics. Sounds a lot like the 2006-07 group as they both have solid complimentary players but appear to lack at least a couple of proven scoring mentalities.
If preseason is any indicator, Rockets may indeed be in trouble as they put up a mediocre 4-4 record. The team combined to shoot a respectable 44% (283-641) from the field but their assists (151) and turnovers (140) were pretty bad. In addition, new team member, Trevor Ariza, saw his efficiency and rebounding go down from last season.
So far, through two games this season, the Rockets have managed one very fortunate win against the Warriors last night. They needed every bit of the 12 of 26 shots from 3 point range to eek out a 1 point win. Despite that peformance, they still have a dismal 41.9% overall field goal percentage on the young season.
Also, it can’t be oversimplified what consistent hardship and failure must do to one’s overall game after enjoying success the last several years. Consistently putting up more shots than one’s accustomed to while becoming much less adept. Less cheering/excitement for home games. Local media outlets start talking about the lottery. The overall lack of positive feelings have a good chance to eventually weigh on the psyche’s on most of the players during the course of 82 games.
I like Ball Don’t Lie’s prediction of a record of 37-45 which precludes Tracy making it back at some point. This team will not have a chance on sniffing the playoffs unless Tracy McGrady shows a return to All-Star form in the majority of this season’s games. Or I guess a young player like Aaron Brooks could try and don some wings and a halo too.
With Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, and to some extent Trevor Ariza getting all the headlines in Houston, there is one player nobody is talking about: Carl Landry. And people probably should be talking about him as he is poised for a breakout season in 2009.
Landry has had some brief moments in the spotlight during his two years playing for the Rockets. He’s had 22 point games and he’s even pulled down eleven boards in a game. Hell, he’s even taken a bullet for the team.
But now, with Yao Ming down and out for the entire 2009-10 season, there is suddenly a 33 minute hole in the Rockets’ rotation at center. Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes should both see a boost of minutes, as they were the other two Rockets to log significant minutes at the five last season.
With Scola and Hayes playing primarily at the five, Landry should see a significant spike in minutes holding down the power forward position for the Rockets next season . For reference, he averaged 21.3 minutes per game last season. Next season, Landry looks poised to earn about 30 minutes a game, with David Andersen and Joey Dorsey picking up the remainder of the minutes at the four and five.
per-36 minute statistics from last season were nice with Landry averaging 15.7 points on .574/.813 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.4 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.7 turnovers. If you factor in some slight gains due to improvement entering his third season in the NBA, and Landry’s promise becomes quite clear.
For certain fantasy teams, Landry is a perfect fit. For teams looking to beef up their field goal percentage without having to sacrifice free throw percentage should look no further than Landry. In fact, Landry was one of ten players last season to average .500+ field goal percentage and .800+ free throw percentage (restricted to players who logged more than 1000 minutes). He also provides rebounds, points and a little bit of defensive category production as well.
On top of everything, Landry can be had very late, including the last round of all standard size leagues. Landry’s Buser Sport’s average draft position is 160 and his Yahoo! O-Rank is nearly identical at 161st overall. He is almost a sure bet to outproduce his average draft position in the 13th round of most drafts.
In Landry, we have the especially rare convergence of a few factors to create a development sleeper and an injury sleeper.
The development sleepers are sleepers in their purest form. Development sleepers are guys who improve based upon their own skills, athleticism and acclimation to professional basketball. Generally, development sleepers make the leap from below-average to above-average in their first three seasons in the league, although there are outliers who make the leap much later (Hedo Turkoglu for example).
Possible development sleepers are around every season and this season is no exception. Guys like Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert are all possible development sleepers for next season. These guys are all being drafted higher than their production from the 2008-09 season would warrant. This is largely based on expectations that these players have will take steps forward in their fantasy production next season.
…
Injury sleepers are when an injury occurs to a starter ahead of the potential injury sleeper (bench player) on the depth chart. Thus, the player moves ahead and experiences a sudden and protracted boost in minutes, often resulting in a surge for that player’s fantasy value as well. As we all know, the allocation of minutes is a strong factor in determining fantasy value. Last season, Paul Millsap was a perfect example of an injury sleeper, as he gained fantasy value when Carlos Boozer went down with a knee injury. The other thing to note is that, unlike development sleepers, an injury sleeper is often a temporary sleeper. When the injured player returns to the court, the injury sleeper usually returns to his bench role with reduced minutes and reduced fantasy production.
Source: Fantasy Basketball Cafe
Why is this situation so rare?
Offseason injuries that sideline a starter are rare indeed. When an offseason injury occurs that sidelines a guy for the entire season, that is even more rare. When said injury opens up minutes for a potential development sleeper, that is even rarer.
Even more shockingly, all but the most saavy of fantasy managers have not seemed to notice the immense opportunity. Landry truly is a sleeper in the most traditional sense; he is a player that is flying well under the radar while maintaining great potential to out produce his draft position.
Don’t sleep on the LandRover.
After years of humiliating first round playoff losses, the Houston Rockets finally made it to the Western Conference semifinals where they took the Lakers to seven games. The team and its fans had reason to be optimistic about heading into next season.
The Rockets had become a venerable force in the Western Conference and they shook off the “they can’t get out of the first round” stigma. It seemed as though their strategy had worked. They refused to submit to rebuilding in years past and continued to built around a core of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. But now it appears they may be without their All-Star center for an extended period of time.
The Rockets have privately told league peers it could be a full season before Yao might be able to return to basketball. Multiple league executives, officials close to Yao and two doctors with knowledge of the diagnoses are describing a troubling re-fracture of his navicular bone. Three pins were inserted a year ago, but the foot cracked in the playoffs and isn’t healing.
Source: Yahoo! Sports
This is devastating news for the Rockets, who view Yao as the face of the franchise and the main building block with which they planned to move forward. Now it seems highly possible that Yao may have played his last game in Houston. He simply is not able to stay on the court an entire season. Think about that for a second, and let the signifcance fully set in.
Yao managed to play in 77 games this season after missing a combined 86 games in the previous three seasons. It looked as though he had finally broken his injury curse when he was sidelined with the most recent foot injury during the Lakers playoff series. Now with word that the foot injury isn’t healing and the possibility of Yao missing yet another season, what can the Rockets do?
They have been competitive with Yao out before but this is not a team that can pretend to make a championship push with Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry holding down the front court. Tracy McGrady isn’t the athlete and superstar he once was and the team has already conceded that he is no longer their go-to-guy heading forward. The Rockets have been actively shopping McGrady, whose massive $22 million expiring contract will be attractive to some teams.
Assuming McGrady is at best in his last year in Houston and Yao is out for the 2009-2010 season, the Rockets are in dire straights. They now have to decide if they will continue to wait for Yao’s foot or if they will move in another direction and rid themselves of Ming and all his ailments.
Rebuilding is a logical conclusion. In my opinion it is the only option the Rockets have at this point. Cut your loses and start over. Yao is not the type of player you can expect to ride all the way to a championship. True: he is an extremely gifted 7 foot 6 inch completely dominating force in the paint. He can block shots, grab rebounds, defend and is one of the best free throw shooters on the team.
One minor detail… he is completely made of glass. Those fragile bones in his feet keep on breaking every season because they are under so much stress (7′6″ and 310 pounds). Yao may be great, but his extreme penchant for injuries limits what he can offer the Rockets.
They have Ron Artest (if they can re-sign him), Scola and Aaron Brooks to build around. They have some recent draft picks Chase Budinger and Jermaine Taylor to help offensively. Beyond that, the Rockets really are at square one. For a team that showed so much resilience to the glut of injuries that always seemed to be lurking around the corner, Yao’s most recent one may be the fatal fracture to a team that had so much potential.
Yahoo! Sports – NBA ESPN – NBA CBS Sports – NBA NBA.com Rotoworld Rotowire Basketbawful Inside Hoops Hoop Data