Basketball Free For All

During a recent Suns-Jazz game back in January, Suns color announcer Eddie Johnson mentioned that Utah is one of the toughest places to play on the road. While this is merely one isolated example, it represents a common perception throughout the League and there are loads of anecdotes that mirror EJ’s comment. The notion of Utah as an elite home team is a perception that is worth investigating to determine whether it is actually true both historically and currently and also to examine the reasons for home court advantage in general. It is also relevant because Utah happens to be one of the two hottest teams in the League right now and is poised to make some noise in the playoffs.

Continue reading

It appears much of the Hornets’ remaining season will hinge on Darren Collison (Dimes) and Marcus Thornton (Buckets).  If you’ve followed the Hornets closely either at At The Hive or Hornets 247, you would have picked up on these novel but very appropriate nicknames given to New Orleans rookie back court.  However, if you haven’t, don’t worry, I’ll more than introduce you to the league’s best young yet mostly unknown duo.

Continue reading

Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

Well we’re more than a quarter through the season so it’s probably going to get more difficult finding significantly helpful players if you participate in active leagues.  Instead, now is the time to keep a close eye on injuries.  When a player goes down or is just hobbling, it usually means something positive for at least one of his teammates.  Another item to keep in mind is that December 15th is the first day players signed this past off season can be dealt.  Between now and the trade deadline (February 18th), expect teams to maneuver to either put themselves in better position for the playoffs or wave the white flag and start thinking about next year.

Week Eight Schedules

Four Games: CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, NOH, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, TOR, WAS, UTA

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, GSW, MIA, MIL, PHX, SAS

Two Games: NONE

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Erick Dampier (C – 34%) – If your team needs help with rebounds or blocks, Dampier is your man.  Despite the glitch with his arm over a few weeks ago, he’s played extremely well when he’s gotten the minutes, as evidenced by the 35 rebounds the last two games.  Without a doubt, he appears to be a contract year player so take advantage of him the rest of this season.  Just keep in mind there will be matchups that limit him in certain games like against the Suns, Warriors or Knicks.

Jarrett Jack (PG/SG – 27%) – If your team is in need of guard help, you should pounce on Jack  immediately.  There is a good chance Jose Calderon might be missing a ton of time in the coming future as his hip is giving him problems.  If he does miss significant time, the Jack-of-all-trades will be a wonderful source of points, assists, 3’s and FT% – everything you want out of a starting PG.

Joel Przybilla (C – 36%) – It’s rare to have possibly two excellent center prospects sitting on the waiver wire, but that’s what you may have this week.  With just a 36% ownership, it’s obvious a number of fantasy managers haven’t jumped all over the Vanilla Gorilla upon hearing about Greg Oden going down for the rest of the year.  When Oden has missed time in the past, Joel has stepped up and contributed excellent boards and solid blocks.  Portland will lean on him heavily the rest of the year; consequently, so should you.

Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 23%) – So far this season, Brandon has done everything in his power to try to force himself off of most rosters.  However, he continues to be a tough habit to kick.  Why?  Opportunity.  Danny Granger is in the midst of missing anywhere from 4 to 6 weeks at the least.  Meanwhile, Mike Dunleavy is going to continue to slowly be worked back into starter-like usage.  Lastly, Dahntay Jones doesn’t possess a strong perimeter game, but more importantly, took a hard fall in last night’s game hurting his shoulder.  Although he says he’s fine, he could be slowed down enough this week whereby Rush emerges as a fantastic contributor during the upcoming 4 game week.

CJ Watson (PG/SG – 15%) – I’m confused by the low ownership of Mr. Watson.  I guess we need to call into Sherlock Holmes to solve this mystery, even though it doesn’t appear too mystifying.  Since getting over the swine flu, CJ Watson has played fantastic ball.  In the last 8 games, ziguana.com has him ranked as the 33rd best player as he’s put up solid numbers in all 9 standard categories.  With the minutes he’s been getting, it’s obvious Nellie and crew have an affinity for him so go ride this guy while he’s hot!

CUT LIST

Will Bynum (PG/SG – 31%) – The last few games, “Will the Thrill” has been sidelined with a bum ankle.  More troubling, with the Pistons on the verge of getting Richard Hamilton and Ben Gordon back and Rodney Stuckey finally hitting shots, Bynum’s minutes appear headed back to the low 20 range.  If you do the math, his nice run appears to be over.  Just keep him in mind the next time you hear about any injury/trade rumors regarding the Piston’s back court.

Nate Robinson (PG/SG – 36%) – If the 5 straight DNP’s haven’t helping you decide, let me tell you it’s time to move on.  The final straw appeared to be fraternizing with Dwight Howard prior to the start of a game against the Magic.  D’Antoni has recently stated he doesn’t plan on changing things either.  Why should he?  The Knicks are currently on their best winning streak since D’Antoni’s arrival in the Big Apple.  I don’t have to remind anyone that Nate should be picked up at the first signs of court time considering his fantasy explosiveness.

Al Thornton (SF/PF – 58%) – This drop is more in line with the thinking that owners should be preparing to cut ties with Al in the coming weeks.  Although Blake Griffin’s return has recently been delayed, Coach Dunleavy has expressed he might be the teams new starting forward.  If Camby doesn’t get traded, that should spell the end for Thornton’s significance in standard leagues.

WATCH LIST

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 5%) – It’s a shame the Israeli sensation can’t get off the watch list, but the depth of the Sacramento Kings is to blame.  Regardless, he should continue to be an asset for points, 3’s, FG% and rebounds.  Lately his defensive numbers have vanished, but I expect him to start contributing in these areas again considering his length and style of play.  The big question mark is the inevitable return of Kevin Martin, but worry about that when the time comes.

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 9%) – “Pyscho T”  appears to have carved a consistent role off the Pacers bench.  The last 3 games, he’s averaged over 17 points, 7 boards and 1.6 steals.  Think DeJuan Blair here because low minutes (low 20s) won’t kill his value.  This guy gets it done and he could help you if you’re pressed for forward production.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (SF/PF – 4%) – Usually when you’re one of the coaches favorites and get over 30 minutes a game, you’re worth owning in standard leagues.  However, this Prince isn’t the case.  He is the Bucks no glory guy where he’ll play tough defense and bring fantastic intensity – too bad that rarely translates well for fantasy purposes.  However, despite this, he’s bound to fall into some numbers.  Deep leaguers should definitely considering owning him, but standard leagues should probably just pay attention to whether he can get into any kind of groove regarding any type of production in coming games.

Luke Ridnour (PG – 39%) – There is no other explanation other than Luke has found the force.  Through more than the quarter of this season, he just can’t miss as evidenced by the 51.8 FG%.  His previous season high?  43.3%.  The reason he’s on the watch list though is playing time.  As the Bucks have gotten healthier, his minutes have dropped measurably (under 18 the last 4 games).  Most players can’t do a whole lot with limited time so expect Luke to follow suit shortly.

Martell Webster (SG/SF – 10%) – I’m kind of getting tired about writing about this guy, but due to the rash of Portland injuries, he’s borderline worth owning in standard leagues.  He’s semi-capable of doing a lot of things:  scoring, 3’s, rebounds and defensive stats, but, for whatever reason, he can’t do any of them consistently.  Perhaps someone/something will get through to him where that’ll change, however, don’t hold your breath as I expect his maddening play to continue.

STAY THE COURSE

Mario Chalmers (PG – 65%) – Admittedly Mario hasn’t found his groove for much of the entire first quarter of the season, but don’t give up hope.  I expect Coach Spo’ to attempt to get him going as the season progresses plus Rio will probably stop getting into so much foul trouble early on in games.  His outside jumper is much more efficient this season and with no real challengers to his skill set, Chalmers will continue to be given significant time.

Boris Diaw (SF/PF – 77%) – The arrival of Stephen Jackson has perhaps put Diaw into a noticeable funk, as evidenced by a drop in his numbers across the board.  It’s not too surprising that his usage would suffer, but don’t make too much out of this in such a small sample size.  First and foremost, realize that he’s currently in the midst of a significant slump as his shot hasn’t been falling.  Considering the Bobcats have no other decent options at PF his minutes will continue to be strong so just ride this out.

COMING BACK FROM INJURY

Plonden’s mentions of Yi Jianlian (PF – 1%) and Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 40%) still apply.  Also, now is the time to probably grab Jameer Nelson (PG – 66%) if he happens to be available.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jose Juan Barea (PG – 5%) – Recently, Mr. Barea has supplanted Rodrigue Beaubois in the Maverick’s starting lineup.  Prior to that, he had a 3 game stretch of non-existent play so it’s conceivable another owner let him go.  Considering Howard’s still coming back from injury and the Coach’s penchant for Jose, he could be useful in the short term for some points, 3’s, assists and steals.

Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 4%) – Really wanted to put “Buckets” on the watch list, but considering that many deep leaguers probably have recently let him go, I wanted him in this section of the article.  Thornton has a 4 game week coming up and his shot has recently returned.  I expect at least solid points and 3’s out of him, but look for more.  Chris Paul has been enamoured with this kid since he was drafted and is recently trying to get him to do more – rebound, drive to the basket, etc.  Hopefully this translates into better boards, steals and a more meaningful FT% in the near future.

Damien Wilkins (SG/SF – 1%) – If Ryan Gomes‘ ankle/knee injury last night forces him to miss any time, Damien looks to be the beneficiary.  He’ll give a little bit of everything, but most likely it’ll be short lived as Gomes’ injury didn’t appear to be serious.

Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 1%) – Almost forgot to add this guy – thanks for the reminder Andrew!  Recently, Wright has gotten solid run for a few reasons.  One, Quentin Richardson continues to miss time due to injury.  Two, Wright seems to have improved his play including an improved jumper and better decision making.  He may be indeed be worth a speculative add if you have the roster space.

The big news coming out of Week Six was unequivocally Greg Oden’s latest major injury (fractured left patella), which has most likely put his season to an abrupt end. All fantasy ramifications aside, you have to feel terrible for the young Blazer and hope he can overcome this latest setback and salvage his promising career. The worst part about the entire situation is that Oden has been playing by far the best basketball of his career when he went down Saturday night. Of course, this once again brings the elephant in the room to the forefront: what if Portland had selected Kevin Durant instead of Oden (there, I said it)? Tough break for both the organization and the fans.

Week Seven Schedules

Four Games: CHI, CLE, DEN, GSW, MIN, NJN, POR, SAS, TOR, UTA

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, DAL, DET, HOU, IND, LAL, MEM, MIL, NOR, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, SAC

Two Games: LAC, MIA, NYK, WAS

Add List

Joel Przybilla (C – 26%) It’s official: Greg Oden legitimately deserves the  “injury-prone big man” label, which does not bode well for his career trajectory. With Oden down and out, it is Vanilla Godzilla time for the foreseeable future. Przybilla provides very specific fantasy help, giving solid value in boards and blocks and modest value in field goal percentage (the impact of his very high percentage is moderated by his low number of attempts) with low turnovers. His career per-36 minute averages are 7.3 points on .555/.557 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 2.7 blocks and 1.7 turnovers so run out and snag him off the wire if you need big man help.

Luke Ridnour (PG/SG – 37%) Luke makes a second consecutive appearance on our add list based upon his extremely strong play recently for the Bucks. Over the past two weeks (eight games), Ridnour has averaged 13.8 points on .518/1.00 percent shooting, 1.1 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers per game. Many managers have avoided Luke until this point because they are worried about how Michael Redd’s return will affect Ridnour’s PT. Those numbers are good for top fifty value so grab him while you can and enjoy the hot streak while it lasts.

C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 7%) It is always dangerous recommending a player who is lives in Nellie’s World and is subject to the Coach’s whims. The X-Factor now is that the Warriors are so short-handed that Nelson can only do so much damage by playing Frankenstein with his rotation. Watson is just starting to hit his stride this season after suffering a strained MCL during the offseason and overcoming the H1N1. Over the past week, he has averaged 15.3 points, .558/.875 percent shooting, 1.5 threes, 4.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Those are some excellent numbers off the wire and are good for 30th in per game value according to Basketball Monster.

Vladimir Radmanovic (SF/PF – 9%) Re-read the above Nellie disclaimer and proceed with caution. Over the past week, Vlad-Rad has also shown enough to warrant a roster spot. As a further incentive, the Warriors play four games next week, which makes Radmanovic a nice pickup for a manager that needs threes, boards and steals. Over the past week, Vladimir averaged 11.8 points on .475/1.00 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. Based on these numbers, Radmanovic deserves a roster space until his next snowboarding accident.

Watch List

Carlos Delfino (SG/SF – 7%) Not sure yet if I’m convinced that Delfino will be worth a roster spot but his recent play lands him on my watch list. Playing almost exclusively at the three this season, Delfino has played well enough to stay out of Coach Scott Skiles’ doghouse. He has regularly seen over 30 minutes per night and has responded with some decent production. Over the past week, Delfino has averaged 12.5 points on .426/.600 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. The biggest threat to Delfino’s playing time (and thus fantasy value) is teammate Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s recent return from a foot injury. Keep an eye on the Bucks’ forward rotation over the next few games for any changes in fantasy values.

Mickael Pietrus (SG/SF – 17%) As a team, the Magic have been rolling lately (seemed to coincide with the return of Rashard Lewis — coincidence? — I think not) and Pietrus is no exception. Over the season, he has averaged right about 30 minutes per game, which is enough minutes to make an impact. He has been inconsistent throughout this season and his career in general but seemed to come into his own during last season’s playoffs. What was most impressive, however, was that Pietrus made his presence known on the defensive end of the floor, which certainly puts him in a good position with Coach Stan Van Gundy. Last week, Air France’s play was particularly strong with averages of 15.3 points on .556/.667 percent shooting, 3.3 threes, 3.o rebounds, 0.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.7 turnovers over the course of three games (33rd in per game value). Did I mention that these three games were against the Knicks (twice) and the Warriors? That reason alone demoted Mickael from the Add List to the Watch List. If he can translate the recent success into solid lines against quality opponents, pick Pietrus up.

Andres Nocioni (SF/PF – 14%) Pretty much everyone, including Sacramento fans, has to be surprised that the Kings’ record has been hovering right around .500 this season. Especially considering the fact that their franchise shooting guard, Kevin Martin, went down for an extended period of time with an injured wrist. The team response to Martin’s injury has been commendable and Andres has played a role in helping Sacramento over-acheive. On the court, Nocioni spreads the floor while providing toughness and the occasional dirty play (every team needs at least a couple of scrappy guys out there). Over the past week, Nocioni has played very well (56th in per game value) putting up 15.3 points on .472/1.00 percent shooting, 3.3 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Players putting up 15 points a night with over three threes per game don’t spend a lot of time on the wire so pick him up now if you need threes from the forward positions.

Delonte West (PG/SG – 18%) – Don’t look now, but Mr. West has had 3 solid games in the last four.  Considering how significant he was to their team last season and Anthony Parker hasn’t been anything more than adequate, Delonte will be given every chance to succeed.  While it’s highly unlikely he’ll garner starter’s minutes, he should be able to put up enough positives in 26-29 minutes for those looking for PG help.

Coming Back From Injury

Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 41%) With the Bulls under-achieving so far this season (although to be fair they have had one of the hardest schedules in the league so far this season), Ty Thomas’ name has been swirling in trade rumors with the Knicks being the most commonly mentioned destination. Regardless of whether he is playing in a Bulls uniform or not, Thomas should hold decent value wherever he lands. If he does end up in New York, Thomas’ value could actually increase playing for Coach Mike D’Antoni in his fast-paced offensive system. With Thomas due back sometime soon, now is the time to pick him up and stash him away on your bench.

Yi Jianlian (PF – 21%) Of all the players taken in the the 2007 NBA Draft, Oden is clearly the most injury-prone player of the bunch. However, Yi is trying his damndest to usurp the most injury-prone-player-taken-in-the-2007-NBA-Draft mantle from Oden. While trying to get back into game shape after spraining his MCL in early November, Yi required 50 stitches in his lip and mouth courtesy of teammate Sean Williams. The silver lining might be that this prevents Jianlian from coming back too early from his MCL injury and buy him a few more days of rest while his mouth heals.

Cut List

Darren Collison (PG/SG – 11%) You’ve got to hand it to the rook — he had a hell of a run with Chris Paul out with a sprained ankle, but all good things must come to an end eventually. For managers that have CP3 and can store dead weight on their roster (roto leagues or H2H leagues with deep benches), Collison is a nice handcuff with Paul, as their fantasy values are more or less inversely proportional to one another’s. Collison proved during that stretch that he has a bright future in this League with performaces such as his 22 point, 11 assist game versus the Hawks or his 18 point, 7 rebound, 8 assist game against the Bucks.

Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 4%) Like teammate Darren Collison, it is about time to cut bait on Thornton and look for more productive fantasy players elsewhere. If Thornton is still on your roster at this point, look for a hotter player (such as C.J. Watson for example) and grab the player with the higher upside going forward. Just make sure and keep an eye on Thornton (and especially his minutes with CP3 back) as he has shown flashes of being a potential big-time scorer in the Association and would certainly benefit from playing alongside a healthy Chris Paul.

Steve Blake (PG/SG – 14%) Recently, Blake has certainly not made a very strong case for himself in his position battle with Andre Miller for Portland’s starting point guard position. Blake has not topped four assists or scored in double figures since November 21. In contrast, Miller scored 24 points on Saturday night in a tough, one point victory over the Houston Rockets (the same game the Blazers lost both Oden and all of their hope for the season). Also, Miller had 18 points and six assists in Portland’s prior game. It is safe to say that Miller has thoroughly outplayed Blake recently and the minute distribution has reflected that fact.

Stay the Course

Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 46%) Owners had to deal with a disappointing week by Ersan as he was in foul trouble for most of the last three games. However, don’t despair! The Bucks are in dire need of his production so they’ll stick with him and eventually he’ll learn to stay on the floor. Besides, there can’t be too many more potentially appealing options on the waiver wire that can fill up most of the stat sheet. His top-100 ranking for the season and averages of 11.3 points on .455/.789 percent shooting, 1.2 threes, 7.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks and 1.2 turnovers merit hanging on to him until he can buck this foul-prone streak.

Jarrett Jack (PG/SG – 19%) Jack has been struggling a bit since the big loss against the Atlanta Hawks (146 to 115 in case you forgot what a serious beat down it was). However, the encouraging sign has been that the minutes have been relatively steady for the other JJ. Even including the three mediocre games, Jack’s averages over the past two weeks haven’t been terrible — they’ve just been relatively pedestrian at 10.1 points on .478/.833 percent shooting, 1.1 threes, 2.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.9 turnovers. The upside is there (especially in the case of a Jose Calderon injury — another nice handcuff possibility) and the minutes are consistent, so ride out Jarrett’s mini-slump. Oh, yeah, and did I mention he has four games in Week Seven?

Deep League Specials

DeJuan Blair (SF/PF – 11%) – Chances are he’s sitting on your waiver wire.  After a monster preseason, he’s been quite uneventful for most of the regular season.  However, it seems he might be looking at a boost in minutes.  Barring last game due to a ton of early foul trouble, his minutes have been trending upwards.  In the Spurs recent loss to the Celtics, he was one of the lone bright spots.  Antonio McDyess, on the other hand, has been seemingly M-I-A. The upside is clearly there, as evidenced by his per-36 minute averages of 15.7 points on .607/.450 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.4 blocks and 2.8 turnovers. If you are looking for double-double potential off the wire, look no further the D. Blair.

Nick Collison (PF/C – 5%) – Nick appears to finally be healthy and ready to contribute in his typical fashion again.  However, some lucky owners may get rewarded even more as Nenad Krstic’s health is unknown at this point.  Nenad had been suffering from a sore Achilles, but several games ago, he twisted his ankle.  In that particular game against Philadelphia, Nick garnered 18 points (on 8/9 FG’s and 2/2 FT’s), 7 rebounds with 1 steal/block.  Last game against the Celtics, many prospective owners were probably turned off as he didn’t do anything in 11 lousy minutes.  However, I suggest you consider that an aberration.  Nenad will probably be given some time to get his ankle right so go ahead and cash in on Collison.

Legends are born the same way fortunes are made in basketball: through clutch late game heroics. Among active NBA players, Hedo Turkoglu has a reputation for being a late game assassin who will take and make big shots. After all, his nickname is the Michael Jordan of Turkey as a homage to the League’s undisputed king of clutch.

Since winning the Most Improved Player Award for the 2007-08 season, Turk’s stock has risen steadily, culminating in last season’s deep post-season run complete with an NBA Finals appearance. Along the way, Hedo has steadily become known for being a guy that can be relied upon to hit the big shot.

Shots like that game winner against the Celtics last season stick in our collective memory banks further reinforcing Turk’s mythical clutch status. They also helped Hedo get a nice payday from the Toronto Raptors, who paid a premium (over $50 million over five years) to obtain the six-foot-ten forward’s services.

Take a look at the following quote that was taken from a post from Hoop Doctors, as it is fairly representative of Hedo’s Turk perceived status as a clutch shooter. The post lists the NBA’s most clutch shooters and has Turk ranked fifth overall, ahead of truly clutch players such as Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony (neither of which make the list’s top fifteen clutch shooters).

Last season, Turk probably hit more clutch shots than anyone, but with a new home and a new team this season, it will be interesting if he still gets those same opportunities to be a game-saver. In the ’09 playoffs, Turkoglu showed he understands the moment by increasing his free throw, field goal, and 3-point percentages.

With that in mind, let’s first examine Turk’s shooting efficiency numbers.

Hedo’s shooting statistics are important because clutch shooting doesn’t only occur in the fourth quarter when the game is on the line. On the contrary, there are a number of important moments throughout a game that can be considered clutch. Coming out of a timeout in a must-score scenario involves clutch play whether in the first quarter of fourth. In fact, considering how precious each and every possession is in a basketball game, each play is rather significant and affects the outcome of the game.

So what do Hedo’s shooting statistics tell us about Hedo the shooter?

A lot actually.

In general, Hedo is not an elite shooter, no matter how you slice and dice the numbers. Looking at the raw shooting statistics, Turk is actually a below average shooter from the field, shooting .439 from the field this season this season and .413 last season. From deep, Turk is a fairly average shooter relative to all players that play over 30 minutes a game, shooting .398 this season and .356 last season. The raw numbers don’t look so hot but couldn’t that be a function of Hedo taking a large number of threes (4.6 three point attempts this season and 4.9 attempts in 2008-09)?

To control for three point attempts when considering shooting efficiency, consider effective field goal percentage. Effective field goal percentage compensates three pointers by weighting them according to their value (1.5 times a normal field goal). This season, Turk’s effective field goal percentage is slightly higher than the league average for players playing over 30 minutes a night (.523 versus average of .501). Last season, Turk was slightly below average (.478 versus an average of .506). Nothing mind blowing here and Hedo can probably be considered an average shooter amongst NBA starters.

If you divide the NBA shooters loosely into tiers, Turkoglu would not qualify for elite status. For comparison’s sake, let’s take a look at two of the league’s leading shooters this season to have a benchmark for what elite shooting statistics look like. When talking about great shooters, there is no better poster child than two time MVP Steve Nash. The Canadian Kid’s raw shooting statistics this season are .529/.431/.942 percent shooting. He is on track to join the extremely selective 50/40/90 club (again). If you consider effective field goal percentage, Nash’s shooting looks even more impressive at .595 percent. For a more recent member to join the top tier of shooters in the NBA this season, look no further than sophomore swingman Anthony Morrow. Morrow’s raw statistics are extremely impressive at .529/.514/.885 percent. His ridiculous three point percentage is the main driver of his equally ludicrous .641 eFG%. Compared to top tier shooters, Turk pales in comparison.

So he may not be an elite shooter but what about Hedo the clutch shooter?

With that in mind, let’s boil Turk’s down to the most clutch of all moments: fourth quarter/overtime scenarios when the game is on the line. Using 82 Games’ clutch criterion, clutch play is furthered narrowed down to the last five minutes when neither team is ahead by more than five points. These plays are the essence of clutch and provide an objective way of sorting fact from fiction.

The data from 82 Games has not been updated for this season so we can only go off of last year’s data. Much of the data is provided in per-48 minute form, meaning the statistics are scaled to 48 minutes of clutch time (as defined earlier). In these 48 minutes of clutch time (based off of a sample size of 134 minutes for Turk), Hedo averaged 26.6 points, which was good for 51st overall. Not terrible, but certainly not elite. More damningly, however, is Turk’s efficiency from the field during clutch time (.357), which was significantly worse than his season average and was good for 156th overall.

Compare these clutch numbers to a player like Lebron James and the contrast is startling. In his 48 minutes (compiled from a sample size of 111 minutes), James averaged 55.9 points on .556 percent shooting from the field, which represents a marked improvement upon his normal field goal percentage of .489. A truly clutch player rises to the occasion and elevates their performance to another level when the game is on the line. Turkoglu’s statistical track record just doesn’t mesh with people’s percetptions of Hedo the fourth quarter assassin.

It appears Hedo’s clutch shooting might have been a bit overblown. How can you explain that?

At risk of getting too philosophical, the problem lies within each of our minds as humans (don’t say I didn’t warn you). People have selective memories where we remember events that coincide with our preexisting beliefs and ignore events that contradict our beliefs. When we see Turk hit a buzzer beater on Sports Center it reinforces the idea that he is a clutch shooter. When we see Hedo miss a clutch three, it goes down as a non-event because it doesn’t gel with our preexisting perception that Turk is a clutch shooter.

For a real life example, check out the following quote from the New York Times that was written during the 2008-09 NBA Finals.

The line between success and setback blurred again for Turkoglu, who has developed into a clutch shooter for the Magic. With little time left in the game, Turkoglu has come up big for the Magic. His résumé includes a game-winning shot in the first round against the Philadelphia 76ers and several game-winners the past two regular seasons.

On Sunday Turkoglu delivered everything but the win.

“I saw an opening and threw it up,” Turkoglu said of his inbounds floater to Lee. “It would have been great for us because we played good.”

In this quote, you’ll notice that the author is paying homage to Turk’s reputation as a clutch shooter in a game that Turk didn’t even hit the game winner. In fact, the final shot wasn’t even put into his hands. Instead, the play was drawn up for Courtney Lee who infamously missed the wide open alley-oop. If Hedo was the clutch shooter as advertised, you can guarantee Coach Van Gundy would have drawn up the final play for Turk to shoot and not pass.

In the end, a lot of the blame for Turk’s inflated reputation as a clutch shooter lies with the media, who glorifies his late-game heroics (event) but ignores his failures (non-event). Once designated clutch, the media picks up the story and runs with it, creating a feedback loop. It parallels the talk from before this season’s draft, which had fans, announcers, coaches, players and everyone in between talking about what a weak draft pool it was. With Brandon Jennings increasingly the next anointed superstar, Tyreke Evans putting the Kings franchise on his back and first pick overall Blake Griffin having not even played a single minute yet this season, it is clear that the draft class of 2009 had bona fide superstars in its midst despite the media writing the entire class off as weak.

Before declaring Turkoglu one of the top five clutch shooters in the NBA based upon glowing accounts in the media, analyze the empirical evidence and make your own informed decision.

According to Yahoo! Rankings, guess who was the most valuable player during week 5?  Old unreliable Marcus Camby.  Hard to argue though considering he averaged (over a 4 game span) 12.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2.5 steals and 3.0 blocks.  You want efficiency too?  How about a 58 FG% and only 1.3 TO’s?  Lesson here is to start thinking about selling high (if you haven’t already).  He’s injury prone, 35 years old and a Blake Griffin return is on the horizon.

Week Six Schedules

Four Games: CHI, DAL, GSW, IND, MIA, MIL, NYK, PHO, TOR, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DEN, DET, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, PHI, SAC, UTA

Two Games: LAC, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, SAS

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Ersan Ilyasova – We’ve been touting this guy for 3 weeks now but he’s still only owned in 40% of all yahoo leagues.  This past week, he averaged 14.5 points (on 42.6 FG% and 77.8 FT%), 1.3 3ptm, 8.8 rebounds, 1.5 stls with only .5 TO’s.  With Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut still disabled and the Bucks enjoying a 4 game week, he could be a serious monster.

Luke Ridnour – As previously stated, Redd is still looking at missed games due to a sore knee. In his stead, Luke has been hot when given solid run.  He’s averaged 15 points (on 54.5 FG% and 100 FT%), .8 3ptm, 3.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and .8 steals.  He has the makings of a very good short term pickup so go ahead and take advantage.

Jamaal Tinsley – Never would have imagined I’d be touting the Tinman, but he has emerged as the best PG in Memphis.  Although he hasn’t officially been named the starter, it appears it’s only a matter of time.  His minutes are on a nice upward trend as Mike Conley is still mired in a season long funk.  Jamaal will give a boost in points, assists and steals with occasional 3’s.

Martell Webster – He’s probably been tossed between the waiver wire and a roster more than once, but he’s worth owning again.  Brandon Roy has spoken so no more 3 guard starting lineups.  Over the past five games, he has also shown he’s over his shooting funk with a 50 FG%.  In that span, he’s put up 14 points, 2.8 3’s, 5.8 rebounds and .8 blocks.

Nick Young – With Mike Miller’s recent injury, his DNP’s are long gone.  This time, he seems to be taking advantage of it as in 3 games he’s averaged 17.3 points and 1.3 3ptm.  Moreover, in watching the Wizards play the Heat, he impressed me.  His game has expanded beyond just scoring as I saw him compete defensively, make the right play and look for teammates.  It should translate into quite a few more boards, assists and defensive numbers than seasons past.

CUT LIST

Mike Conley – If Tinsley is on the add list, Conley definitely deserves to be on the cut list.  He hasn’t been able to snap out of a season long funk as he’s shooting 37.5% from the field (27.8% from 3) while posting a career worst 2.4 TO’s.  There is a good chance Mike will have a chance to regain significant time at the point down the line as Jamaal has been susceptible to injury or bad slumps himself.  However, no reason to wait for this to happen with him on your roster.

Randy Foye – At this point, it seems he can’t even beat out Earl Boykins/Nick Young.  If you picked him up when M&M went down, time to go back to the drawing board (unless 16 minutes of playing time is your cup of tea).

Brad Miller – Still owned in 50% of the leagues, uh why?  Barring some extreme matchups or foul trouble by teammates, his minutes are clearly going towards Taj Gibson and company.  Also, don’t forget that Tyrus Thomas will be in the mix in the not too distant future.

WATCH LIST

Omri Casspi/Donte Greene/Beno Udrih – Paul Westphal is still experimenting with lineups (until Kevin Martin returns) so the playing time and production of these 3 guys continues to waver.  I expect Donte Greene to be the short term loser (even though he’s started the last 3 games).  If he’s not hot, he’ll be sitting most 4th quarters to at least 1 if not both of the other guys.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see Beno also recapture a starting gig next to Tyreke Evans.

Allen Iverson – AI’s been beating on owners going back to last year but that may be changing in the near future.  His recent hasty retirement sparked some controversy in NBA circles as many (Larry Brown, John Thompson, countless of teammates) felt he acted too abruptly.  In my opinion, he is going to land on another roster (maybe Philly?) and could quite possibly turn out to be VERY relevant.  AI was ready to take on the world at the start of this year, but it didn’t work out.  Now with his supporters getting vocally behind him, I think it could give him the incentive to succeed this time round.

Jonas Jerebko – This Swede partially owes thanks to one of our loyal readers, John-O.  I was going to include him in the Deep League Specials area, but with others noticing his production, he deserves to be on everyone’s watch list.  Sunday, John Kuester changed his starting lineup to snap the Pistons out of their funk.  Lo and behold, it wasn’t the rookie getting the short end of the stick but rather Charlie Villaneuva.  To make matters even more appealing Charlie apparently broke his nose.  Jonas won’t overwhelm as the guards rule the team but he’ll continue to see 30+ minutes a game in the short term while giving solid boards and chipping in points, 3’s and defensive numbers on occasion.

STAY THE COURSE

Jared Dudley – Jared has cooled considerably since his strong start, but I advise owners who still haven’t punted him to stick with him.  First, Leandro Barbosa just hurt his ankle against the Raptors and appears he’ll be out anywhere from 2 games to 2 weeks.  Second, the Suns have a 4 game schedule this week.  Owners should prepare to be rewarded with solid 3’s and steals with decent points and boards.

Marcus Thornton – I know “buckets” hasn’t exactly set the world on fire the last 2 games but I don’t think his run is over.  First, he’s still the Hornets most explosive wingman.  Second, Peja has suddenly left the team for personal reasons.  If you can withstand another 2 game week, I think he’ll satisfy owners down the road as Chris Paul will soon be in control of his destiny.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Robin Lopez – The other twin is back from injury and in his first game back, he had an immediate impact for the Suns (8 points, 7 boards, 1 steal, 2 blocks).  Considering the need for a legitimate backup to Amare Stoudemire and Channing Frye, Robin should fill the role immediately.  Announcers noticed in that first game, he was quite winded early so once his conditioning gets in order, he has a good chance to increase productivity and consistency.

Damien Wilkins – Kurt Rambis promised to shake up the lineup and in Sunday’s game Wilkins started for the first time since the start of the season.  Considering the Wolves upset the Nuggets at their place while he contributed 15 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists, I’d say he’s earned at least a few more starts.

Every year there are players who will begin the season at a torrid pace. They rebound, steal, block and shoot their way to the top of the fantasy rankings right out of the gate. Conversely, on the less exciting side, there are also players you drafted early hoping they will have a stellar season for your team only to find out that they are anything but the great player you had hoped for.

This dichotomy can be so maddening for some owners that it will cause them to make rash decisions that savvy managers can exploit for their own selfish purposes (winning). Everyone likes a good deal and the fantasy community is no different. If you can find a manager who is tired of watching one of their star players under-perform, offer him a trade for a player(s) of less clout. The idea is to trade for a top-notch type player while he is at his statistical worst, buy low. Or trade away your over-achiever for a slumping stud, sell high.

The Buy Low

Before any trades are proposed, you need to consider a few things about the player(s) you are giving up as well as the player(s) you are receiving. When buying low, consider that you are essentially hunting in the bargain-bin at your local thrift store. The items (players) may have been nice at one time but now are used and a little worn out.

A few things to consider. Is the player coming off a down season that was an anomaly when compared to the rest of his career? Think Josh Smith last year, a year where he had career-lows in basically every statistical category (points, blocks, assists, rebounds) versus his play this year. Hopefully that year was just that, an anomaly, and the player will hopefully bounce back to his previous success of seasons past. Also, consider any injury history. Any player coming off of a major injury or surgery is surely going to have his value discounted at draft time. Finally, the true buy low player, a guy who just flat-out is not playing well at all but has a strong past track record to use as a reference point.

Here are a few buy low candidates to consider early on in the season.

The Injured Player. Kevin Martin and Chris Paul are two fantastic fantasy players that are viable buy low candidates at this point in the season and illustrate the injury aspect well.  No one wants to have an injured player on their roster. Its no fun watching one of your premier players accumulate zeros across the board night after night. After a few days or weeks of having to sit through an injury it can be beneficial to approach a slumping manager with a trade proposal for an injured star.

The other K-Mart has a hairline fracture in his left wrist that required surgery on November 9th. He is due out anywhere from 6-8 weeks but could be out longer as he doesn’t have the best track record for staying healthy. Owners needing a lift in threes, points, and free throw percentage may want to make a play for him. With a guy like Martin, it may make sense to wait a while to let the owner’s frustration grow to the breaking point.

Chris Paul is also out of action due to an ankle sprain and the initial prognoses is that he will be out for approximately one month. Making a trade proposal for CP3 requires a little bit more effort and tact. It is no easy process to get an owner to give up his number one pick, let alone the first or second overall pick in the draft. Paul is most likely only out a few weeks not an extended period so one would have to give up a quality player(s) that are not only healthy but are also producing top tier value. The key here is to not go too overboard in who you are willing to give up. Sure Paul can easily win a number of categories and possibly it all for your team but he isn’t worth it if you have to strip your roster to the bear bones just to acquire him. If Paul’s owner is losing bad it could benefit you to make a play for him ASAP while he is still out for a few weeks and the owner is still antsy to get a productive body in his lineup.

This type of buy low is especially effective when tried on managers at the bottom of the standings. They are more likely to be willing to deal an injured stud for lesser value in order to keep from falling too far behind and out of the playoff hunt.

The Player Returning from Injury. Pretty self explanatory here. Target a player who is just getting ready or has just returned from injury. Anytime a player has an injury that forces them to miss extended amounts of time, he usually comes back rusty and has a few bad games early on. Currently, there are multiple players that fit this bill including Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Pau Gasol. Gordon and Love are still injured but are due back sooner rather than later and Gasol should be back to return Thursday night against the Bulls.

All three players are productive and can help virtually any team. When they do finally suit up, be sure to monitor their first couple of games. If they start out slow, send a trade proposal to open up tentative trade talks (nothing insulting). Most likely they will regain their form in a few games and will be right back to where they were before their injury. Just don’t wait too long because once they do fully recover, their value will drastically increase and your opportunity to buy low will be closed forcing you to pay full market value to obtain him.

Note: Be more cautious with major structural injuries that require months of rehabilitation as effects can often linger. Think Elton Brand trying to come back from his Achilles injury over the past couple of seasons.

The Slumping Player. Simple, go after any player who is performing below their career averages or your expected averages for this season. The idea here is the law of averages. If a player has performed at a certain (high) level for many years and is currently under-performing, he most likely will pick his game up at some point and eventually will end up performing at or near his career averages. A few players to consider under this model are Brand, Jose Calderon, Thaddeus Young and John Salmons.

All are in major slumps compared to their historical production and could be had on the cheap (well Brand’s window may be closed after his vintage performance against the Bobcats last night: 19 points on .471/.750 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 6 blocks and 1 turnover). One major caveat here is to be careful for a player currently slumping that also just signed a major extension, think Luol Deng in 2008-09, minus the stress fracture. Sometimes players just don’t have that fire in them after the big pay day and it can affect their entire season. For an excellent more in-depth article on Salmons,  check out the latest Great Debate piece.

Other buy lows to consider: Caron Butler, Al Jefferson.

The Sell High

If one of your players is playing such great basketball that it seems unlikely that he will continue to keep pace, then selling high is your best option to get positive returns on your player investment.

The Injury Fill-In. Anytime a starter goes down he opens up a spot for a bench player to shine. They can often be great pick-ups for the short term but will quickly lose their value once the starter returns. One player to unload immediately, like as in yesterday, is Andray Blatche. With a Basketball Monster rank of 65th overall in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 53rd overall in per game value, Blatche’s value is as high as it ever will be. Antawn Jamison is back from a shoulder injury and the party is officially over for Andray. In Jamison’s first game back, Blatche had 6 points and zero rebounds in just over 17 minutes.

Rookies. Rookies have become more intriguing over the past couple of years and are capable of making an immediate fantasy impact. Guys like O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose had managers salivating last season. This year, Tyreke Evans, Blake Griffin (even though he hasn’t even played a game yet) and Brandon Jennings have all been hot commodities. Jennings in particular appears to have been the steal of the draft (in both real life and in fantasy) with an average draft position of 126th overall in Yahoo! leagues. His 55 point outburst against Golden State last week got everyone’s attention and if you are skeptical of his ability to continue at such a high rate, now is the time to start shopping him. His current Ziguana rank is 15th overall. I’m not saying he won’t be great the rest of the year because he easily can be, but consider that it is early in a long season.

Rookies are not used to the physical demands of the NBA and its grueling 82 game schedule. The fabled “rookie wall” is very important to consider. Usually sometime mid-season around the 45-50 game mark, rookies start to slow down and their production drops. It is part of the game, learning how to keep your body healthy for the length of the season and rookies sometimes forget that the season is a marathon not a sprint. Watch out for the rookie wall and consider selling high before it happens to your rooks, especially if you can get a proven stud in return.

The Injury-Prone Player. The classic sell high candidate is the injury-prone player. A guy who always seems to miss time each season but is a strong player when healthy. To look at it from another perspective, they have high per game values but low cumulative values. There are  many players that fall into this category and it can often be tough to cut ties with a player who is playing to his full potential. This season there have been a number of players you could label as injury-prone who are healthy and are rewarding their owners.

Two of the best example are Staples Center big men Chris Kaman and Andrew Bynum. Over the past two seasons combined, they have missed 77 and 79 games respectively. But this year they are both healthy so far and are producing a per game Ziguana rank of 49th and 12th overall, respectively. When they are healthy they can carry your team in blocks and rebounding while providing solid percentages and points. But with multiple, serious injuries in the past, their durability is definitely an issue to consider. Kaman seems to have found his rhythm and is playing very well. Ongoing nagging injuries and simply being old could keep Marcus Camby “day-to-day” for longer than expected making Kaman’s production sustainable for the foreseeable future. Even with Blake Griffin due back next month from injury, expect Kaman’s value to hold strong. Bynum is a little more of a wild card. Two major knee surgeries in the past are signs owners might be a little scared of. However his 20.3 points on .591/.717 percent shooting, 0.0 threes,  11.8 rebounds 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.8 blocks and 2.3 turnovers make Bynum a major sell high candidate, just be sure you get quality value in return for the young center. Also, just remember that Bynum has posted these numbers with Pau on the floor this season, which is another reason to consider selling high on Andrew.

Other sell highs to consider: Marc Gasol, Channing Frye.

Yet another week has passed and there were more changes to the fantasy landscape.  Chris Paul, Travis Outlaw, Josh Howard, Kelenna Azubuike and Marreese Speights went down this week.  Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, Eric Gordon, Courtney Lee and Troy Murphy continued their Mr. Invisible impressions.  At least Antwan Jamison and Rashard Lewis will be sure to return this week.  Also, can’t go without mentioning Brandon Jennings.  He is the reason why NBA League Pass just might be worth it as it’s highly unlikely most of us will even have an opportunity to watch Bucks’ games.

Week Four Schedules

Four Games: ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, MIA, MIL, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, TOR

Three Games: BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, LAC, LAL, MEM, NJN, NYK, PHI, PHI, SAC, SAS, UTA, WAS

Two Games: MIN

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Will Bynum – He’s got a juicy four game schedule and both  Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton are not expected to play during the road trip.  Although Bynum’s numbers will likely take a hit when Rip gets back, he still might be worth owning as he’ll probably still get around 25 minutes a game and contribute decent scoring stats, assists and steals.

Toney Douglas – Over the last week, Toney has been the Knicks best guard.  It’s not saying much when you check the competition but it is very noteworthy.  D’Antoni’s grey is becoming more noticeable by the day and he’s tired of it.  Currently, he is re-evaluating the entire rotation and it is expected he’ll go with the youth.  I expect Toney to continue to get strong playing time and help fantasy owners in scoring stats, efficiency and steals.

Rudy Fernandez/Martell Webster – Funny how in one week Martell goes from the drop list to the add list.  Thanks Outlaw!  With Travis sidelined for at least 6 weeks, both of these guys will probably be worth owning.  Martell has a golden opportunity to really seize some time as it’s not expected the Blake/Miller/Roy trio to continue starting.  If Webster is able to start knocking his shot down with any regularity, he’ll put up very serviceable numbers across the board.  Rudy on the other hand is a perfect fit for the 6th man so that should continue.  However, his minutes are going to get a bump up so nab him if you really need help with 3’s and steals.

Chris Douglas-Roberts – He licked the swine flu in no time and has already logged 35 minutes in the Nets last game.  Pick him up if he’s available because the Nets are in dire need of his potential contributions.  He’ll be rewarding owners as soon as this coming week in points, efficiency, steals and rebounds.

Thabo Sefolosha – There is no denying it, he has a major role in the Thunder’s rotation because of his defensive abilities.  It’s a great sign that he’s still been getting a ton of time even though his shot has been way off of late (6-25 in the last 4 games).  While he’ll never be a volume shooter, he will help fantasy managers in 3’s, boards and defensive categories.

CUT LIST

DJ Augustin – Seems DJ is going through the motions of a second year player.  There were high hopes entering the season but he’s gotten off to a slow start and it appears Larry Brown won’t help him.  The other night, DJ took a shot off a pick and roll instead of passing to the open player and Coach promptly yanked him.  With Raja Bell attempting to play through his injuries and Flip Murray back, Augustin will be pressed to find consistent minutes.

Chris Duhon – Chris was never meant to be a fantasy relevant player, but that changed the day he put on a Knick uniform.  While he has the ability to put up some nice numbers on occasion, he hasn’t even been close thus far this season.  D’Antoni hasn’t kicked him to the curb yet, but I expect the next game or two to be a nice barometer for the next few months.  If he shows signs of snapping out of it, hang on to him as Coach will undoubtedly stick with him.  If not, send him packing.

Josh Howard - Well that didn’t take long.  Howard is already out indefinitely with rumors claiming he’ll be out until the end of December.  Considering the surgery was back in May and he’s still not right, I don’t suggest standard leagues to stick by this brittle body.

WATCH LIST

Darren Collison – Darren might be a nice plug in option for at least this upcoming week, but I’m not sold on him.  He struggled in his first start against the Hawks and scary as it sounds, Bobby Brown outplayed him.  It’s easy to envision him going from a bad game to average to bad to good to bad again.  Also, after this week, the Hornets will have two straight weeks of just 2 games so I assume there should be a better interim option out there at this time.

JJ Hickson – The Cavaliers moved him into the starting lineup to shake things up a bit after a disappointing start to the year.  Somewhat surprisingly, JJ has come through with flying colors.  In their last game against Utah, he put up 20 points, but more importantly, he received 38 minutes on the floor.  If this continues, then he’ll most likely be worthy of ownership in standard sized leagues.

Marcus Thornton - Last week, I had him in my Deep League Specials section, but this week he gets a bump up.  It’s no secret that the Hornets are struggling especially on the offensive end.  Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Devin Brown and James Posey have looked awful too many times.  With Jeff Bower responsible for drafting Marcus, I believe he’ll get his share of chances at significant playing time rewarding owners with points, 3’s, FT% and steals.

STAY THE COURSE

Andris Biedrins – Horrid start for sure.  Combine that with a lousy back injury that seemed to be perpetuated by Nellie’s lack of sense, he’s giving fantasy owners absolutely nothing right now.  However, according to Ziguana,  he put up Round 5 value last season.  Considering the Warriors have no other viable center, he’ll jump back into the rotation once he’s deemed healthy.

John Salmons – He couldn’t have gotten off to a worst start – under 32% from the field thus far.  However, don’t make the mistake on either dropping him or selling low as he’s a proven efficient shooter.  Despite his struggles, he’s averaging 38 minutes a game so it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a valuable asset on your team.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Eddy Curry, Jordan Hill – I’ve got a strong feeling one of these two guys will be relevant as soon as this coming week.  David Lee at center seems worse than last year as his opposition is running layup drills around him.  With Darko Milicic apparently not a factor, one can expect D’Antoni to next look to these two guys.  Hill has shown flashes of late that he’s got some game but he still has a number of things to learn (as indicated by his foul rate).  Curry has been a laughing stock for such a long time but the Knicks are desperate.  He’s lost a ton of weight and might be serviceable until his next injury.

CJ Watson – In the world of Nellie, even fodder can turn into gold.  Not surprisingly, Stephen Curry has already landed on the end of the bench so CJ has been able to receive some fantastic minutes the last two games (27 and 34).  Subsequently, he has taken full advantage of it by playing very well and there is a decent chance it’ll continue in the short term.

Players earn their fantasy value in different ways. Some players provide well-rounded stat lines that are more or less without weakness. Other players’ fantasy value is derived from strengths in a few categories or even just one category. The flip side is that some players can hurt a fantasy team with large negative values in one or more categories. These large negative values often occur in the efficiency categories (shooting percentages and turnovers).

Over the past few years, no other player has embodied the spirit of the Cat Carrier and the Cat Killer than Orlando’s own superhero, Dwight Howard. D12 is a Cat Carrier for three categories; rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage. At the same time, Howard is also a Cat Killer in two categories; free throw percentage and turnovers.

When constructing a winning Roto or Head-to-Head team, it is important to build a cohesive team while finding value throughout the draft. In H2H it is much easier to overcome weaknesses than it is in a Roto league, thus allowing for managers to take on Cat Killers without completely destroying their team’s chance of success. In Roto leagues, the Cat Killers are much harder to handle.

But in determining which Cat Carriers to draft or which Cat Killers to avoid, it is important to have a method of comparing Carriers or Killers in different categories to each other. Enter player valuation systems such as Basketball Monster or Ziguana.

Player valuation systems commonly rely on Z-Scores to allow us to compare apples (counting statistics, such as blocks) to oranges (efficiency statistics, such as field goal percentage). Since all counting statistics are on different scales, they also allow us to compare one type of apple (rebounds) to another type of apple (threes). Z-Scores do this generally by using standard deviations to rank all players against the average of a particular category. These individual Z-Scores are aggregated to assign an overall value for each player.

In trying to predict future fantasy production, past production is one of the biggest factors that comes in to play. As with most statistics, the more data you have the more reliable your conclusions. Thus, by using multiple years of data, you can better control for suspensions, injuries, down seasons and other outliers.

What follows is a list of the largest Cat Carriers and Cat Killers based on cumulative values over the past three seasons based on Basketball Monster’s Player Rankings in the nine standard categories. To eliminate any fringe players, a minimum of fifty games played was enacted. I relied on BBM’s valuations over Ziguana’s because BBM has a simple filter to limit the data to the past three seasons. Three seasons of data was used to help control for anomalies while also allowing some of the younger players to make the list.

And now, the rankings.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Over the course of the last three seasons, the single largest positive contributor to any one category has been Marcus Camby in blocks (averaged 3.1 blocks over the past three seasons). The next three top dogs were a trio of elite point guards in Steve Nash (10.8 assists), Chris Paul (10.2 assists) and Deron Williams (10.1 assists). Rounding out the top five is Amare Stoudemire with his highly efficient scoring from the field (.572 percent shooting on 14.1 attempts per game) due in part to Nash’s aforementioned dimes.

In simply perusing the top five players on this list, it becomes apparent why punting assists is so popular in H2H leagues. If you miss a top shelf point guard in the draft, you will have trouble competing against the managers that get one of the assist Cat Carriers. If you broaden the scope to the top ten players, Jason Kidd makes an appearance at seventh overall for assists as well (9.3 assists).

If you re-sort the data to put the values in ascending order, Dwight Howard takes the top spot, also know as the best of the worst. Howard’s free throw percentage (.590 percent on 9.9 attempts per game) is the single biggest category contributor in fantasy basketball over the past three seasons, period. Unfortunately for Howard and his Roto owners, this contribution is negative. In a close second is Shaquille O’Neal’s free throw percentage impact (.524 percent shooting on 6.5 attempts per game).

To reiterate, these two values are by far the biggest single category contributions in fantasy basketball, whether positive or negative. Either of these two negative free throw percentage contributions dwarfs Camby’s positive value in blocks in comparison. For rookie managers, the lesson should now be crystal clear. When dealing with percentages, attempts matter. A lot. That is why Andris Biedrins‘ free throw percentage (.565 percent shooting on only 2.6 attempts per game) is not nearly as damaging as Howard’s or Shaq’s. It still hurts a team, but is much more managebale than Howard’s.

Another lesson that managers of all experience levels can learn from examining Cat Carriers and Cat Killers is that Cat Carriers that are not also Cat Killers are always in high demand. These players are much easier to move than Cat Carriers that are also Cat Killers. For Roto leagues, and to a lesser degree H2H teams, Cat Killers are difficult to incorporate into a team after the draft because teams need to have a specific means of moderating the impact of a Cat Killer. Thus, targeting Cat Carriers can give you lots of trade value because these players can almost singlehandedly make a team competitive in a certain category. Oftentimes, managers are looking to trade for players that help deficiencies and not players that provide solid across the board value.

By looking at these values and comparing them against each other, it is apparent why winning a Roto league with Dwight Howard is such a difficult task that few have accomplished in competitive fantasy leagues. Moreso than any other player in the league, Howard was built for H2H play and should only be drafted in Roto leagues by managers who have a clear-cut plan in place of reducing the harm caused by Superman’s free throw shooting and the chutzpah to take the plunge.