When one door closes, another one opens — or so the saying goes, anyways. With the trading period closed in the NBA, it is time to scour the waiver wire and see if the trades opened up any doors for your fantasy teams. As my distinguished colleague Oleh pointed out in his breakdown of the fantasy fallout from last week’s trades, there is plenty of value to be had as a result of trades, injuries and everything in between.
Wondering what will be the effects of all the major deals prior to today’s deadline? Well, worry no more as Justin and I are here to help clear up any confusion. I’ll handle the relevant fantasy perspective while Justin will tackle the realistic implications in a subsequent article. If we happen to miss anything or you simply have a question, as always, feel free to leave a comment below.
All the hype surrounding the collaboration between Mark Cuban and Jerry Jones in bringing the 2010 All-Star Game to Dallas wasn’t completely misguided, as the event drew a record crowd of 108,713 people to Cowboys Stadium. The entirety of the weekend proved to be more of a letdown than anything though, with two events in particular standing out as big-time busts.
Before we get to the good stuff, I just wanted to mention that we’ve experienced some trouble on the website as hackers thought we were an enviable target. We have to assume they were unhappy with Plonden’s advice, but regardless, we lost Deebo’s post/comments and I’ve had to redo this week’s preview (that’s why it was late). Regardless, lesson to be learned – BACK UP everything you do somewhere!
After week twelve, we’ve officially reached the half-way point of the regular season, which means it is mid-season adjustment time. Now is a perfect time to evaluate your team’s cumulative performance and assess your strengths and weaknesses. For head-to-head leagues, check your punting strategy and consider whether it makes sense to adjust your strategy going forward. For roto leagues, now might be time to consider big trades to shore up any weaknesses. Any team can be improved with the right moves; just don’t make the classic mistake of making a move for the sake of, well, making a move.
Yet another week has passed and there were more changes to the fantasy landscape. Chris Paul, Travis Outlaw, Josh Howard, Kelenna Azubuike and Marreese Speights went down this week. Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, Eric Gordon, Courtney Lee and Troy Murphy continued their Mr. Invisible impressions. At least Antwan Jamison and Rashard Lewis will be sure to return this week. Also, can’t go without mentioning Brandon Jennings. He is the reason why NBA League Pass just might be worth it as it’s highly unlikely most of us will even have an opportunity to watch Bucks’ games.
Week Four Schedules
Four Games: ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, MIA, MIL, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, TOR
Three Games: BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, LAC, LAL, MEM, NJN, NYK, PHI, PHI, SAC, SAS, UTA, WAS
Two Games: MIN
ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)
Will Bynum – He’s got a juicy four game schedule and both Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton are not expected to play during the road trip. Although Bynum’s numbers will likely take a hit when Rip gets back, he still might be worth owning as he’ll probably still get around 25 minutes a game and contribute decent scoring stats, assists and steals.
Toney Douglas – Over the last week, Toney has been the Knicks best guard. It’s not saying much when you check the competition but it is very noteworthy. D’Antoni’s grey is becoming more noticeable by the day and he’s tired of it. Currently, he is re-evaluating the entire rotation and it is expected he’ll go with the youth. I expect Toney to continue to get strong playing time and help fantasy owners in scoring stats, efficiency and steals.
Rudy Fernandez/Martell Webster – Funny how in one week Martell goes from the drop list to the add list. Thanks Outlaw! With Travis sidelined for at least 6 weeks, both of these guys will probably be worth owning. Martell has a golden opportunity to really seize some time as it’s not expected the Blake/Miller/Roy trio to continue starting. If Webster is able to start knocking his shot down with any regularity, he’ll put up very serviceable numbers across the board. Rudy on the other hand is a perfect fit for the 6th man so that should continue. However, his minutes are going to get a bump up so nab him if you really need help with 3’s and steals.
Chris Douglas-Roberts – He licked the swine flu in no time and has already logged 35 minutes in the Nets last game. Pick him up if he’s available because the Nets are in dire need of his potential contributions. He’ll be rewarding owners as soon as this coming week in points, efficiency, steals and rebounds.
Thabo Sefolosha – There is no denying it, he has a major role in the Thunder’s rotation because of his defensive abilities. It’s a great sign that he’s still been getting a ton of time even though his shot has been way off of late (6-25 in the last 4 games). While he’ll never be a volume shooter, he will help fantasy managers in 3’s, boards and defensive categories.
CUT LIST
DJ Augustin – Seems DJ is going through the motions of a second year player. There were high hopes entering the season but he’s gotten off to a slow start and it appears Larry Brown won’t help him. The other night, DJ took a shot off a pick and roll instead of passing to the open player and Coach promptly yanked him. With Raja Bell attempting to play through his injuries and Flip Murray back, Augustin will be pressed to find consistent minutes.
Chris Duhon – Chris was never meant to be a fantasy relevant player, but that changed the day he put on a Knick uniform. While he has the ability to put up some nice numbers on occasion, he hasn’t even been close thus far this season. D’Antoni hasn’t kicked him to the curb yet, but I expect the next game or two to be a nice barometer for the next few months. If he shows signs of snapping out of it, hang on to him as Coach will undoubtedly stick with him. If not, send him packing.
Josh Howard - Well that didn’t take long. Howard is already out indefinitely with rumors claiming he’ll be out until the end of December. Considering the surgery was back in May and he’s still not right, I don’t suggest standard leagues to stick by this brittle body.
WATCH LIST
Darren Collison – Darren might be a nice plug in option for at least this upcoming week, but I’m not sold on him. He struggled in his first start against the Hawks and scary as it sounds, Bobby Brown outplayed him. It’s easy to envision him going from a bad game to average to bad to good to bad again. Also, after this week, the Hornets will have two straight weeks of just 2 games so I assume there should be a better interim option out there at this time.
JJ Hickson – The Cavaliers moved him into the starting lineup to shake things up a bit after a disappointing start to the year. Somewhat surprisingly, JJ has come through with flying colors. In their last game against Utah, he put up 20 points, but more importantly, he received 38 minutes on the floor. If this continues, then he’ll most likely be worthy of ownership in standard sized leagues.
Marcus Thornton - Last week, I had him in my Deep League Specials section, but this week he gets a bump up. It’s no secret that the Hornets are struggling especially on the offensive end. Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Devin Brown and James Posey have looked awful too many times. With Jeff Bower responsible for drafting Marcus, I believe he’ll get his share of chances at significant playing time rewarding owners with points, 3’s, FT% and steals.
STAY THE COURSE
Andris Biedrins – Horrid start for sure. Combine that with a lousy back injury that seemed to be perpetuated by Nellie’s lack of sense, he’s giving fantasy owners absolutely nothing right now. However, according to Ziguana, he put up Round 5 value last season. Considering the Warriors have no other viable center, he’ll jump back into the rotation once he’s deemed healthy.
John Salmons – He couldn’t have gotten off to a worst start – under 32% from the field thus far. However, don’t make the mistake on either dropping him or selling low as he’s a proven efficient shooter. Despite his struggles, he’s averaging 38 minutes a game so it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a valuable asset on your team.
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS
Eddy Curry, Jordan Hill – I’ve got a strong feeling one of these two guys will be relevant as soon as this coming week. David Lee at center seems worse than last year as his opposition is running layup drills around him. With Darko Milicic apparently not a factor, one can expect D’Antoni to next look to these two guys. Hill has shown flashes of late that he’s got some game but he still has a number of things to learn (as indicated by his foul rate). Curry has been a laughing stock for such a long time but the Knicks are desperate. He’s lost a ton of weight and might be serviceable until his next injury.
CJ Watson – In the world of Nellie, even fodder can turn into gold. Not surprisingly, Stephen Curry has already landed on the end of the bench so CJ has been able to receive some fantastic minutes the last two games (27 and 34). Subsequently, he has taken full advantage of it by playing very well and there is a decent chance it’ll continue in the short term.
As the upcoming NBA season approaches it is never too early to begin to think about which players to target to help your fantasy squad. Everyone is looking to find potential sleepers, the players that will outperform their draft position and potentially lead your team to fantasy glory. This year is no different and one player to keep a close eye on early is the New York Knick’s Danilo Gallinari.
No, this is not a Basketball Free For All original.
Gallinari came to New York via Italy as the sixth overall draft pick in the 2008 NBA Draft. He came into the league as another unknown European player with lots of potential, a word that is so often thrown around that it has become trivial. It is also a word that is strongly correlated with the dreaded b-word (bust).
After a rookie season in which he missed 54 games due to a back injury sustained in summer league play, Gallinari is now poised to start for the Knicks. After undergoing back surgery in April, Danilo is healthy and should be given plenty of minutes to prove he is worthy of a lottery pick.
Speaking recently at a Knicks charity event Gallinari touched on his health and his expectations for the coming season: “I feel good…I want to see the expectations, I want to feel the pressure, because that’s what makes you a really good player,” he said. “So I’m happy that there is pressure and people have expectations.”
Coach D’Antoni also gave Gallinari rave reviews saying he looked “good” and “He’s taken a lot of hits and fallen down and gotten back up. He’s getting in better shape as each day goes by.”
Source: The New York Times
The article also suggests that the Rooster will most likely be a starter this season. The Knicks are a team that is looking to develop its young core with well known hopes of making a big acquisition in next summer’s free agent market. However, no superstar wants to join a team that is lottery-bound, so Coach Mike D’Antoni and the Knicks have to showcase their young talent next season as a draw to Lebron James any potential free agent acquisitions.
Gallinari, along with Wilson Chandler, seems to be at the forefront of this player development movement in Madison Square Garden. As a result, he should earn somewhere around 30 minutes per game next season. Examining last season’s limited data set, his per 36 minute averages were 14.9 points on .448/.963 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 4.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers.
Not bad for a player in his rookie season, playing injured, and having to adjust to not only rookie NBA life, but life in a new country as well. With his new-found health and a tumultuous rookie season out of the way, what can we expect this year from Gallinari?
Assuming he earns at least 30 minutes a game (for reference he played 14.7 minutes per game last season), he should approach 13.5 points, 2.3 threes, 4.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.2 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. He should again provide strong free throw percentages (90%+) and should continue to hover near or improve upon his rookie field goal percentage.
The break-neck pace (the second highest in the league last season) of Coach D’Antoni’s fantasy-friendly offense should only help to reinforce stability in Gallinari’s numbers. He is also an excellent three point shooter and should contribute quite a few threes here and there. According to early mock drafts, Gallinari is going in the 13th round with an average draft position of 155.4. Yahoo! has given the Rooster an O-Rank of 166th overall.
Guys with limited upside such as: Andres Nocioni, Grant Hill and Peja Stojakovic are all going before Danilo. For the most part we have seen what those guys are capable of producing and barring some injury, trade or massive resurgence, they have nowhere near the potential (there’s that word again) that Gallinari offers.
His main competition at the small forward spot will be Wilson Chandler. As alluded to earlier, he is another young and talented player who is also said to be in the future plans for the post-2010 Knicks. Chandler and Gallinari should compete for minutes but they are both too talented to be relegated to small roles next season. Both Gallinari and Chandler should see plenty of PT with a complimentary lineup of Chris Duhon, David Lee, Jared Jeffries, Al Harrington, Nate Robinson, Larry Hughes, Darko Milicic and even possibly Eddy Curry (if only to showcase him to boost his trade value) seeing the majority of the remaining play time.
No matter how the rotation shakes out in New York, Gallinari will be featured prominently as a key piece of the Knicks’ future plans. Don’t sleep on the Rooster as he is almost assured to outperform his 13th round draft position and provide wise managers with solid fantasy dividends.
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