Basketball Free For All

Golden State Warriors fans had to be displeased watching Brandon Jennings take the League by storm right out of the gates this season knowing that their team passed him up to draft another promising young guard. However, they now understand why, as Stephen Curry has been playing at an incredibly high level amidst incredible adversity. Over the past month, Curry has posted first round value while averaging 19.5 points on .484/.879 percent shooting, 2.4 threes, 4.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.6 turnovers. Congratulations if you drafted Curry or snagged him off the wire early on in the season but this kid definitely deserves to be recognized for his outstanding play as of late.

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As we arrive at the mid-point of the season, it becomes apparent that the early season success of a few players is more than just a fluke hot start. These players may have been decent contributors in the past but never gained mainstream attention outside of their own team’s fan base. These are the players that should be considered for the Most Improved Player Award.

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Before we get to the good stuff, I just wanted to mention that we’ve experienced some trouble on the website as hackers thought we were an enviable target.  We have to assume they were unhappy with Plonden’s advice, but regardless, we lost Deebo’s post/comments and I’ve had to redo this week’s preview (that’s why it was late).  Regardless, lesson to be learned – BACK UP everything you do somewhere!

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Everything that follows is said with the utmost respect, as a true fan of Amare Stoudemire and the Phoenix Suns. After all, he has recovered from both the dreaded microfracture and an even more devastating freak eye injury, either of which would probably cause some players to consider retirement. The guy has been through a lot in his eight years of service on the front lines of the NBA. That’s what makes everything that has to be said that much more difficult.

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Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

According to Yahoo! Rankings, guess who was the most valuable player during week 5?  Old unreliable Marcus Camby.  Hard to argue though considering he averaged (over a 4 game span) 12.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2.5 steals and 3.0 blocks.  You want efficiency too?  How about a 58 FG% and only 1.3 TO’s?  Lesson here is to start thinking about selling high (if you haven’t already).  He’s injury prone, 35 years old and a Blake Griffin return is on the horizon.

Week Six Schedules

Four Games: CHI, DAL, GSW, IND, MIA, MIL, NYK, PHO, TOR, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DEN, DET, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, PHI, SAC, UTA

Two Games: LAC, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, SAS

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Ersan Ilyasova – We’ve been touting this guy for 3 weeks now but he’s still only owned in 40% of all yahoo leagues.  This past week, he averaged 14.5 points (on 42.6 FG% and 77.8 FT%), 1.3 3ptm, 8.8 rebounds, 1.5 stls with only .5 TO’s.  With Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut still disabled and the Bucks enjoying a 4 game week, he could be a serious monster.

Luke Ridnour – As previously stated, Redd is still looking at missed games due to a sore knee. In his stead, Luke has been hot when given solid run.  He’s averaged 15 points (on 54.5 FG% and 100 FT%), .8 3ptm, 3.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and .8 steals.  He has the makings of a very good short term pickup so go ahead and take advantage.

Jamaal Tinsley – Never would have imagined I’d be touting the Tinman, but he has emerged as the best PG in Memphis.  Although he hasn’t officially been named the starter, it appears it’s only a matter of time.  His minutes are on a nice upward trend as Mike Conley is still mired in a season long funk.  Jamaal will give a boost in points, assists and steals with occasional 3’s.

Martell Webster – He’s probably been tossed between the waiver wire and a roster more than once, but he’s worth owning again.  Brandon Roy has spoken so no more 3 guard starting lineups.  Over the past five games, he has also shown he’s over his shooting funk with a 50 FG%.  In that span, he’s put up 14 points, 2.8 3’s, 5.8 rebounds and .8 blocks.

Nick Young – With Mike Miller’s recent injury, his DNP’s are long gone.  This time, he seems to be taking advantage of it as in 3 games he’s averaged 17.3 points and 1.3 3ptm.  Moreover, in watching the Wizards play the Heat, he impressed me.  His game has expanded beyond just scoring as I saw him compete defensively, make the right play and look for teammates.  It should translate into quite a few more boards, assists and defensive numbers than seasons past.

CUT LIST

Mike Conley – If Tinsley is on the add list, Conley definitely deserves to be on the cut list.  He hasn’t been able to snap out of a season long funk as he’s shooting 37.5% from the field (27.8% from 3) while posting a career worst 2.4 TO’s.  There is a good chance Mike will have a chance to regain significant time at the point down the line as Jamaal has been susceptible to injury or bad slumps himself.  However, no reason to wait for this to happen with him on your roster.

Randy Foye – At this point, it seems he can’t even beat out Earl Boykins/Nick Young.  If you picked him up when M&M went down, time to go back to the drawing board (unless 16 minutes of playing time is your cup of tea).

Brad Miller – Still owned in 50% of the leagues, uh why?  Barring some extreme matchups or foul trouble by teammates, his minutes are clearly going towards Taj Gibson and company.  Also, don’t forget that Tyrus Thomas will be in the mix in the not too distant future.

WATCH LIST

Omri Casspi/Donte Greene/Beno Udrih – Paul Westphal is still experimenting with lineups (until Kevin Martin returns) so the playing time and production of these 3 guys continues to waver.  I expect Donte Greene to be the short term loser (even though he’s started the last 3 games).  If he’s not hot, he’ll be sitting most 4th quarters to at least 1 if not both of the other guys.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see Beno also recapture a starting gig next to Tyreke Evans.

Allen Iverson – AI’s been beating on owners going back to last year but that may be changing in the near future.  His recent hasty retirement sparked some controversy in NBA circles as many (Larry Brown, John Thompson, countless of teammates) felt he acted too abruptly.  In my opinion, he is going to land on another roster (maybe Philly?) and could quite possibly turn out to be VERY relevant.  AI was ready to take on the world at the start of this year, but it didn’t work out.  Now with his supporters getting vocally behind him, I think it could give him the incentive to succeed this time round.

Jonas Jerebko – This Swede partially owes thanks to one of our loyal readers, John-O.  I was going to include him in the Deep League Specials area, but with others noticing his production, he deserves to be on everyone’s watch list.  Sunday, John Kuester changed his starting lineup to snap the Pistons out of their funk.  Lo and behold, it wasn’t the rookie getting the short end of the stick but rather Charlie Villaneuva.  To make matters even more appealing Charlie apparently broke his nose.  Jonas won’t overwhelm as the guards rule the team but he’ll continue to see 30+ minutes a game in the short term while giving solid boards and chipping in points, 3’s and defensive numbers on occasion.

STAY THE COURSE

Jared Dudley – Jared has cooled considerably since his strong start, but I advise owners who still haven’t punted him to stick with him.  First, Leandro Barbosa just hurt his ankle against the Raptors and appears he’ll be out anywhere from 2 games to 2 weeks.  Second, the Suns have a 4 game schedule this week.  Owners should prepare to be rewarded with solid 3’s and steals with decent points and boards.

Marcus Thornton – I know “buckets” hasn’t exactly set the world on fire the last 2 games but I don’t think his run is over.  First, he’s still the Hornets most explosive wingman.  Second, Peja has suddenly left the team for personal reasons.  If you can withstand another 2 game week, I think he’ll satisfy owners down the road as Chris Paul will soon be in control of his destiny.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Robin Lopez – The other twin is back from injury and in his first game back, he had an immediate impact for the Suns (8 points, 7 boards, 1 steal, 2 blocks).  Considering the need for a legitimate backup to Amare Stoudemire and Channing Frye, Robin should fill the role immediately.  Announcers noticed in that first game, he was quite winded early so once his conditioning gets in order, he has a good chance to increase productivity and consistency.

Damien Wilkins – Kurt Rambis promised to shake up the lineup and in Sunday’s game Wilkins started for the first time since the start of the season.  Considering the Wolves upset the Nuggets at their place while he contributed 15 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists, I’d say he’s earned at least a few more starts.

Each year, there is always a group of players that start off hotter than the devil’s underwear.  Amongst them, there are several guys that really do come out of nowhere.  If you’re lucky, you’ve got at least one of them on your roster.  Or, perhaps, you’re being offered one of them by an owner looking to sell high.  Either way, now is a good time to contemplate what you can expect from them in the future. Playing your cards right can go a long way in determining the rest of your season so we’ll hopefully help breakdown 5 of the largest surprises this early NBA season.

* The following rankings are based on Ziguana 9-cat rankings.

1.  Larry Hughes – currently 12th

Who hasn’t owned “Smooth” (yeah that’s his nickname) at one time or another?  In his best year (2004-05), he averaged 22 points (on 43 FG% and 77 FT%), 1 3ptm, 6.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 2.9 steals.  Very nice!  Too bad that season has turned out to be an aberration as he’s failed to come close to duplicating those numbers again.  No matter though as Larry is once again tempting fantasy owners with a line thus far of 14 points (on 50 FG% and 70 FT%), 1.3 3ptm, 4.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.2 steals.  The million dollar question is, can he keep it up?

One thing in Hughes favor though is the pocketbook argument.  It has been published by authors like Kevin Stiroh that NBA players performance do spike in contract years.  Well, at age 31, Larry is playing for the future so he might be putting up a one last hoorah.

However, I’m definitely on the other side of the fence as he’s got several factors working against him.  First, he is a career 41% FG shooter who is known for being as streaky as a Leonid Meteor Shower.  He’ll string along a few nice games, then promptly kick your team’s efficiency in the groin.  Second, his penchant for injury isn’t a secret to anyone – from ankles to shoulders to wrists.  Third, he is playing for the hapless Knicks.  D’Antoni will probably continue to experiment with lineups as to maximize wins and playing time for the youngsters.

Conclusion:  he’s a perfect sell high candidate so don’t wait too long to attempt to move him before he reverts back to ‘expected form.’

2.  Marc Gasol – currently 13th

I’d be willing to wager that “La Tanqueta” was the last picked starting Memphis Grizzly in every fantasy league this year.  Whoops!  He’s made a fool of all of us by putting up averages of 15.2 points (on 61.1 FG% and 74.7 FT%), 11.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.7 blocks.  He’s easily been the better Gasol in the family in the earlygoings, but the important question is will it continue?

From my perspective, I don’t see any reason why he won’t.  First, have you seen him lately?  He lost half a Spaniard – well, not really, but 30 pounds is nothing to scoff at!  It is apparent he is moving MUCH better on the court and that added quickness is translating to a solid increase in most statistical categories.  Second, playing alongside potent names like OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph has taken all the focus away from him; consequently, he’s been free to roam in the paint and clean up on the glass.

Conclusion:  Marc Gasol owner’s should hang onto him unless they receive a very good offer.

3.  Brandon Jennings – currently 21st

“Young money” has started off the season with a bang and simultaneously has many Knick fans headed for the Brooklyn Bridge.  This spectacular lefty has posted averages of 25.3 points (on 47.9 FG% and 77.2 FT%), 2.6 3ptm, 4.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 1.0 steals.  His unexpected goodness has made the Milwaukee region relevant again as fans all over the country are tuning in to see what he’ll do next.  Unless you were on an expedition to the South Pole, I’m sure you heard about his recent 55 point performance.  So amongst all the hoopla, should there be any cause for concern?

Simply put, yes, as his feet have to touch the ground at some point.  Coming into the season, he gave every indication his shot was going to work:  43 games in Euope last year – approximately 38 FG%/22 3PT%,  NBA summer league – 37.9 FG%/42.9 3PT% and in the NBA preseason – 33 FG%/25 3pt%.  Currently, he’s at 47.9 FG%/49.1 3PT% with an eFG% on jumpshots of 55.9%.  I’m sorry, but that’s an unsustainable level.  Steve Nash’s eFG% is currently at 55.2% and last year it was 54.7%.  I refuse to believe he’s anywhere as adept as the 2 time NBA MVP.

Conclusion:  Sell high (in non-keeper leagues).  Although I expect him to still put up solid lines, they won’t be at current levels.  He will cool off and hit quite a few slumps as the law of averages tend to be cruel.  In addition, opposing teams now know who he is so they’ll key on him defensively.

4.  Channing Frye – currently 22nd

Channing should be nicknamed “rollercoaster” – from promising rookie to bench fodder to a fantasy owner’s dream.  This Phoenix Suns starting center is averaging 12.9 points (on 44.4 FG% and 79 FT%), 2.7 3ptm, 5.7 rebounds and close to 1 block/steal per game.  Simply marvelous when you consider he probably wasn’t even drafted in your league, but is he someone you keep for the long haul?

Yes.  While Channing does possess solid NBA talent, it’s the fact that he’ll continue to see big minutes in the Valley of the Suns.  The Frye guy was born to play center when Steve Nash is at the helm as he’s very proficient at shooting the perimeter shot and quicker than 90% of the opposition.  He’ll never wow you with the rebounds nor blocked shots, but if your team is small ball orientated he’ll fit like a glove.

Conclusion:  Jumpshooters are streaky so sell while the going is good; otherwise, hang onto him for what looks like will be a rewarding ride.

5.  Dahntay Jones -  currently 95th

Who says the NBA isn’t one big family?  Dahntay, a cousin of Al Harrington, is enjoying his finest NBA season to date.  He is currently averaging 17.6 points (on 48.2 FG% and 78.1 FT%), 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks.  Thought he was only a defensive stopper?  Welcome to the club.  However, if one looked closely enough, you’d have discovered he does know how to put the ball in the hoop.  In 10 games in the NBDL 2 years ago, Dahntay averaged 24.4 points with close to 1 steal/block per game and his senior year at Duke 17.7 points.  So can he keep it going?

This prediction isn’t as clear cut as the others as he’s got what seems to be a similar number of pro’s and con’s.  Regarding the pro’s, he plays for the 2nd best team in terms of pace.  Both Larry Bird and Coach O’brien are high on this kid as he’s got a bulldog defensive mentality.  Lastly, he has demonstrated he possesses an aggressive yet pretty efficient offensive approach (6.6 FTA a game).

As far as the con’s, it would seem he’s been playing on borrowed time.  Both Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy have missed most of the games played this season.  Once they’re both back and healthy, it would dictate a few players will get squeezed for minutes in a fair amount of games.

Conclusion:  Sell high if you can, but don’t despair.  The likelihood that Brandon Rush takes his game to another level and Dunleavy/Murphy (and even Danny Granger) remain healthy here on out seem very remote.  There may be a few periods where his production wanes, but don’t fear, he’ll get back on the court one way or another.

Every year there are players who will begin the season at a torrid pace. They rebound, steal, block and shoot their way to the top of the fantasy rankings right out of the gate. Conversely, on the less exciting side, there are also players you drafted early hoping they will have a stellar season for your team only to find out that they are anything but the great player you had hoped for.

This dichotomy can be so maddening for some owners that it will cause them to make rash decisions that savvy managers can exploit for their own selfish purposes (winning). Everyone likes a good deal and the fantasy community is no different. If you can find a manager who is tired of watching one of their star players under-perform, offer him a trade for a player(s) of less clout. The idea is to trade for a top-notch type player while he is at his statistical worst, buy low. Or trade away your over-achiever for a slumping stud, sell high.

The Buy Low

Before any trades are proposed, you need to consider a few things about the player(s) you are giving up as well as the player(s) you are receiving. When buying low, consider that you are essentially hunting in the bargain-bin at your local thrift store. The items (players) may have been nice at one time but now are used and a little worn out.

A few things to consider. Is the player coming off a down season that was an anomaly when compared to the rest of his career? Think Josh Smith last year, a year where he had career-lows in basically every statistical category (points, blocks, assists, rebounds) versus his play this year. Hopefully that year was just that, an anomaly, and the player will hopefully bounce back to his previous success of seasons past. Also, consider any injury history. Any player coming off of a major injury or surgery is surely going to have his value discounted at draft time. Finally, the true buy low player, a guy who just flat-out is not playing well at all but has a strong past track record to use as a reference point.

Here are a few buy low candidates to consider early on in the season.

The Injured Player. Kevin Martin and Chris Paul are two fantastic fantasy players that are viable buy low candidates at this point in the season and illustrate the injury aspect well.  No one wants to have an injured player on their roster. Its no fun watching one of your premier players accumulate zeros across the board night after night. After a few days or weeks of having to sit through an injury it can be beneficial to approach a slumping manager with a trade proposal for an injured star.

The other K-Mart has a hairline fracture in his left wrist that required surgery on November 9th. He is due out anywhere from 6-8 weeks but could be out longer as he doesn’t have the best track record for staying healthy. Owners needing a lift in threes, points, and free throw percentage may want to make a play for him. With a guy like Martin, it may make sense to wait a while to let the owner’s frustration grow to the breaking point.

Chris Paul is also out of action due to an ankle sprain and the initial prognoses is that he will be out for approximately one month. Making a trade proposal for CP3 requires a little bit more effort and tact. It is no easy process to get an owner to give up his number one pick, let alone the first or second overall pick in the draft. Paul is most likely only out a few weeks not an extended period so one would have to give up a quality player(s) that are not only healthy but are also producing top tier value. The key here is to not go too overboard in who you are willing to give up. Sure Paul can easily win a number of categories and possibly it all for your team but he isn’t worth it if you have to strip your roster to the bear bones just to acquire him. If Paul’s owner is losing bad it could benefit you to make a play for him ASAP while he is still out for a few weeks and the owner is still antsy to get a productive body in his lineup.

This type of buy low is especially effective when tried on managers at the bottom of the standings. They are more likely to be willing to deal an injured stud for lesser value in order to keep from falling too far behind and out of the playoff hunt.

The Player Returning from Injury. Pretty self explanatory here. Target a player who is just getting ready or has just returned from injury. Anytime a player has an injury that forces them to miss extended amounts of time, he usually comes back rusty and has a few bad games early on. Currently, there are multiple players that fit this bill including Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Pau Gasol. Gordon and Love are still injured but are due back sooner rather than later and Gasol should be back to return Thursday night against the Bulls.

All three players are productive and can help virtually any team. When they do finally suit up, be sure to monitor their first couple of games. If they start out slow, send a trade proposal to open up tentative trade talks (nothing insulting). Most likely they will regain their form in a few games and will be right back to where they were before their injury. Just don’t wait too long because once they do fully recover, their value will drastically increase and your opportunity to buy low will be closed forcing you to pay full market value to obtain him.

Note: Be more cautious with major structural injuries that require months of rehabilitation as effects can often linger. Think Elton Brand trying to come back from his Achilles injury over the past couple of seasons.

The Slumping Player. Simple, go after any player who is performing below their career averages or your expected averages for this season. The idea here is the law of averages. If a player has performed at a certain (high) level for many years and is currently under-performing, he most likely will pick his game up at some point and eventually will end up performing at or near his career averages. A few players to consider under this model are Brand, Jose Calderon, Thaddeus Young and John Salmons.

All are in major slumps compared to their historical production and could be had on the cheap (well Brand’s window may be closed after his vintage performance against the Bobcats last night: 19 points on .471/.750 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 6 blocks and 1 turnover). One major caveat here is to be careful for a player currently slumping that also just signed a major extension, think Luol Deng in 2008-09, minus the stress fracture. Sometimes players just don’t have that fire in them after the big pay day and it can affect their entire season. For an excellent more in-depth article on Salmons,  check out the latest Great Debate piece.

Other buy lows to consider: Caron Butler, Al Jefferson.

The Sell High

If one of your players is playing such great basketball that it seems unlikely that he will continue to keep pace, then selling high is your best option to get positive returns on your player investment.

The Injury Fill-In. Anytime a starter goes down he opens up a spot for a bench player to shine. They can often be great pick-ups for the short term but will quickly lose their value once the starter returns. One player to unload immediately, like as in yesterday, is Andray Blatche. With a Basketball Monster rank of 65th overall in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 53rd overall in per game value, Blatche’s value is as high as it ever will be. Antawn Jamison is back from a shoulder injury and the party is officially over for Andray. In Jamison’s first game back, Blatche had 6 points and zero rebounds in just over 17 minutes.

Rookies. Rookies have become more intriguing over the past couple of years and are capable of making an immediate fantasy impact. Guys like O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose had managers salivating last season. This year, Tyreke Evans, Blake Griffin (even though he hasn’t even played a game yet) and Brandon Jennings have all been hot commodities. Jennings in particular appears to have been the steal of the draft (in both real life and in fantasy) with an average draft position of 126th overall in Yahoo! leagues. His 55 point outburst against Golden State last week got everyone’s attention and if you are skeptical of his ability to continue at such a high rate, now is the time to start shopping him. His current Ziguana rank is 15th overall. I’m not saying he won’t be great the rest of the year because he easily can be, but consider that it is early in a long season.

Rookies are not used to the physical demands of the NBA and its grueling 82 game schedule. The fabled “rookie wall” is very important to consider. Usually sometime mid-season around the 45-50 game mark, rookies start to slow down and their production drops. It is part of the game, learning how to keep your body healthy for the length of the season and rookies sometimes forget that the season is a marathon not a sprint. Watch out for the rookie wall and consider selling high before it happens to your rooks, especially if you can get a proven stud in return.

The Injury-Prone Player. The classic sell high candidate is the injury-prone player. A guy who always seems to miss time each season but is a strong player when healthy. To look at it from another perspective, they have high per game values but low cumulative values. There are  many players that fall into this category and it can often be tough to cut ties with a player who is playing to his full potential. This season there have been a number of players you could label as injury-prone who are healthy and are rewarding their owners.

Two of the best example are Staples Center big men Chris Kaman and Andrew Bynum. Over the past two seasons combined, they have missed 77 and 79 games respectively. But this year they are both healthy so far and are producing a per game Ziguana rank of 49th and 12th overall, respectively. When they are healthy they can carry your team in blocks and rebounding while providing solid percentages and points. But with multiple, serious injuries in the past, their durability is definitely an issue to consider. Kaman seems to have found his rhythm and is playing very well. Ongoing nagging injuries and simply being old could keep Marcus Camby “day-to-day” for longer than expected making Kaman’s production sustainable for the foreseeable future. Even with Blake Griffin due back next month from injury, expect Kaman’s value to hold strong. Bynum is a little more of a wild card. Two major knee surgeries in the past are signs owners might be a little scared of. However his 20.3 points on .591/.717 percent shooting, 0.0 threes,  11.8 rebounds 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.8 blocks and 2.3 turnovers make Bynum a major sell high candidate, just be sure you get quality value in return for the young center. Also, just remember that Bynum has posted these numbers with Pau on the floor this season, which is another reason to consider selling high on Andrew.

Other sell highs to consider: Marc Gasol, Channing Frye.

The NBA basketball season is underway and with that a number of us are participating in various fantasy leagues.  It’s obviously an exciting time as we get to see how our newly drafted teams kick off the year.  A few will be happy with the initial results, but most of us will have qualms about at least a player or two on our roster.  To add to the confusion, there are several guys just sitting on the waiver wire begging to picked up after putting up an enticing line or two.  Should we jump the gun and pick them up?  Or will we regret our decision and feel like the league’s laughing stock?

Since most of us play in standard sized leagues (12 teams each with 13 players), I’m going to gear the examples in this article towards them.  Before you pick up that alluring free agent, I want you to ask yourself 3 questions.

First, regarding the player in question, will he have an opportunity to put up serviceable numbers consistently for at least the near future?  The main thing you want to examine is minutes.  Inconsistent time on the court is almost always going to lead to spotty production.

There are numerous indicators that point to solid time.  Perhaps the player just fell into a solid role due to a teammate’s injury.  Maybe he emerged as the leading candidate from a position battle.  Or he could be a young guy or a non-playoff team who improved significantly over the the summer.

Off the top of my head, some guys who come to mind so far this season that fit the bill are Andray Blatche, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Andres Nocioni, Danilo Gallinari, Ben Wallace, Corey Brewer, Roy Hibbert and Channing Frye.

On the other hand, guys like DeJuan Blair, Ty Lawson, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams and Jason Williams should probably be left on the waiver wire.  They have all had a solid line or two, but in all their cases it is unlikely to continue.  For instance, promising rookies like Blair and Lawson have had some eye-popping numbers but it came in blowouts where the starters played significantly less.

Next, you need to ask what is the free agent’s prior history? There are always a few players in the league who continue to entice owners year after year because they show a glimpse of good value.  For example, this season, already Larry Hughes, Erick Dampier and Travis Outlaw have probably lured a few fantasy managers to pick them up.

However, it’s probably not a good idea.  Hughes has a solid history of putting up an occasionally stellar line the last few years, but he can never sustain any consistent production.  Moreover, he is currently getting quite a bit of run at the expense of Nate Robinson’s short term injury.  Don’t forget Larry DEFINITELY-NOT-A Legend, made 1 of 23 shots in preseason.

Erick Dampier has currently enjoyed several solid lines, but I don’t think he’s turned back the clock.  His numbers have been in steady decline since the Mavericks landed him 5 years.  Also, newly signed Drew Gooden has missed several games due to a pulled rib cage muscle.

Travis Outlaw has the ability to score in bunches, but Portland is so deep that even with Nicolas Batum’s shoulder injury he’ll be more off than on.  Martell Webster is still the starter and most nights they’ll cancel out one another’s value with the dreaded fantasy time share.

Third, how useful will the free agent be on my team? For Rotisserie and Points leagues, this may not be that large of an issue since every player has similar value to every other manager in the league.  However, if you’ve already got two solid 3 point shooting guards on your bench, does it really make sense to add a third and thereby really limiting your team’s flexibility?

On the contrary, in Head to Head leagues, managers need to also examine whether the free agent will help their strengths.  Many owners don’t (and rightfully so) try to be competitive in all the categories in their league.  It just doesn’t make sense to try to win them all when it substantially reduces the odds of winning the majority of categories week in and week out.  Thus, when picking up a free agent, a manager should always be aware of his strengths and improve on those, rather than fruitlessly worry about their weaknesses.

Naturally, you should ignore the last two paragraphs if the free agent in question looks like they’ll post top 100 value for an extended period of time.  Even though the player may not suit your team, he will surely be coveted by someone else and would make excellent trade bait.

Over the course of the season, I’m going to try to touch on a few subjects focusing on particular strategies everyone should be aware of in fantasy basketball.  If any of you would like to see a particular topic discussed, feel free to email me or leave a comment at the end of the article.

At this point, everyone in the know knows Brook Lopez and the unique set of skills he brings to both his team, the New Jersey Nets, and the lucky fantasy owners who draft him. There is also another less-known member of the Lopez family who may also be relevant this coming season. Robin Lopez is his name and until recently, sitting on the bench has been his game.

RoLo became a member of the Association last season after being selected 15th overall by the Phoenix Suns. He spent most of the 2008-09 season buried deep on the Suns’ bench. His PT was an innocent bystander caught in the crossfire of the Shaquille O’Neal experiment in Phoenix. Plus, the fact that he couldn’t stay on the floor without fouling (5.7 fouls per 36-minutes) didn’t help his cause either.

Now that the Shaqtus is in Cleveland and Terry Porter is well, wherever he currently is, Lopez finds himself in position to at least earn some decent minutes this season (at least improve upon the meager 10.2 minutes per game he averaged in his rookie campaign). With no “true centers” on the Suns roster other than Lopez, Robin should see decent runs based upon matchups.

Who is Lopez competing against for minutes?

First, there’s the slightly undersized-for-the-position Amare Stoudemire. As the alpha male of the Suns big men, it goes without saying that Amare will be on the floor when the game starts (and ends for that matter) at either the four or the five. If Amare ends up manning the four, Lopez has a much better shot of earning enough PT to be fantasy relevant. Lopez has the possibility of either starting or coming off the bench as the first big man.

While the Suns roster is by no means set in stone at this point in the offseason, we can already predict that Lopez will see a much bigger role this season. The loss of Shaq alone should guarantee that. However, the situation is further complicated by the addition of mobile big man Channing Frye to the roster as well as the continued development of Jared Dudley and Lou Amundson. How these three play will play a big factor in determining the extent of Lopez’s fantasy value this coming season.

As of now, the Suns depth chart is poised to look something like this:

PG: Steve Nash, Goran Dragic
SG: Jason Richardson, Leandro Barbosa, Alando Tucker
SF: Grant Hill, Earl Clark, Sasha Pavlovic
PF: Amar’e Stoudemire, Jared Dudley, Louis Amundson
C: Robin Lopez, Channing Frye

As mentioned earlier, Amare could be moved back to his unnatural position of center. If this is the case, then expect Lopez to be the first big off the bench to spell Amare, with Frye most likely starting at the four. In this scenario, Stoudemire and Frye could play the four and five interchangebly with both players preferring to shoot (and attack the rim in Amare’s case) instead of playing with their back to the basket.

However, what if the Suns decide to keep Amare in his Shaq-era position of power forward would open up the opportunity to have a true center (term used loosely here) in Lopez starting at the five. The other possibility to consider is that Lopez and Frye could both end up starting a decent number of games based upon matchups.

So let’s assume Lopez does indeed get more minutes. What kind of production could we expect?

Lopez’s per-36 minute numbers from last season were 11.1 points on .518/.691 percent shooting, 6.9 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.6 steals, 2.4 blocks, and 1.6 turnovers. So going into his second year where he could actually improve (at least a little bit) with increased playing time and confidence, Lopez becomes a potential third or fourth center for a fantasy team. His value lies with his rebounding to a certain degree and shot blocking ability to a large degree; his offensive game just isn’t there yet.

After watching Lopez battle in Las Vegas Summer League, he looks poised to make a definite impact on the defensive end (insert disclaimer about basing opinions on summer league play here). He was trying to reject every shot he could and did a solid job of making his presence known on the boards (even had a beastly 24 point, 16 rebound, 2 block game). On a side note, his summer league averages were remarkably similar to his per-36 minute stats from his rookie season. Remarkably similar.

If he is given starter status, and more importantly, minutes, expect Lopez to provide for those in need of a boost in rebounds and blocks with a respectable field goal percentage.

The Suns brought in Channing Frye as their lone unrestricted free agent prize this off-season (Grant Hill and Steve Nash also were re-signed as restricted free agents). Frye brings a well-rounded set of skills to the team as well as a high basketball IQ. He is a great mid-range shooter, capable defender against quicker big men and an underrated passer. He is quick on his feet and comfortable with the run-and-gun system the Suns will be getting back to this season under Alvin Gentry.

Frye can play either the four or the five but is much better suited to play the four. He will most likely have a career year with the Suns next season, earning ample playing time, somewhere in the 25-27 minute per game range. He will earn his keep off Nash pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop opportunities, just like Amare has done in years past. Amare and Frye are similar style players and could be a potent force together on the floor.

It will be up to Gentry to decide if he wants to emphasize defense early on and start Lopez or to go with the option of putting the most offensive firepower possible on the floor early on by starting both Frye and Stoudemire. It could change night-to-night with Lopez starting when the Suns play against bigger centers like Dwight Howard, Shaq or Kendrick Perkins.

As with Lopez, Frye’s playing time could hinge on the production of Jared The Junkyard Dog Dudley and Lou Sweet N’Lou Amundson. Yeah, those are both real nicknames. Both are pure hustle players who work hard on both ends of the floor on every possession. Dudley is more of a complete package who does all of the little things that role players should do. He has the shooting touch to go along with the defensive heart and ability.

Amundson is more of a defensive role player and rebounding specialist. He’s a lunch pail guy that every team needs. Plus, he is an absolute fan favorite in the Valley of the Suns. Both of these young players could end up earning minutes and cutting into both Lopez’s and Frye’s playing time. The extent to which this occurs is not known at least until training camp begins and we start to get a clearer picture of the new pecking order. Neither will be fantasy commodities except for in the deep leagues.

The Suns front court position battle is certainly one to keep an eye on this fall in training camp.

No matter how the rotation shakes out in the next few weeks, the Suns will have new-found depth in the front court. No matter what shakes out, one thing’s for certain: this team will be very different from the Seven Seconds or Shaq model of last year.