Basketball Free For All

With yet another NBA trade deadline coming and going, a lot of excitement and hope was generated among the fans and media.  Some teams were looking for that final piece that makes them championship material.  Others simply were looking for a player that helps them get into the postseason.  Lastly, there were a few who look at this time of the year as the highlight of the season as their team struggles to even be competitive on a nightly basis so might as well position themselves for the upcoming lottery.  Whatever the reasons, all fans hoped their team would have made a trade or two that improved future prospects.  Question is, how often can these deadline deals really be coined successful?

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Wondering what will be the effects of all the major deals prior to today’s deadline?  Well, worry no more as Justin and I are here to help clear up any confusion.  I’ll handle the relevant fantasy perspective while Justin will tackle the realistic implications in a subsequent article.  If we happen to miss anything or you simply have a question, as always, feel free to leave a comment below.

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All the hype surrounding the collaboration between Mark Cuban and Jerry Jones in bringing the 2010 All-Star Game to Dallas wasn’t completely misguided, as the event drew a record crowd of 108,713 people to Cowboys Stadium. The entirety of the weekend proved to be more of a letdown than anything though, with two events in particular standing out as big-time busts.

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Week 11 was dominated by the Gilbert Arenas saga finally coming to a head, leaving owners with tough decisions to make about whether to hold or fold their Agent Zero hand. More on that dilemma and the fantasy fallout below. Beyond that, we saw Danny Granger and Troy Murphy return to the starting lineup for the Pacers, altering the fantasy landscape in Indy for the thousandth time this season. Along with the Golden State Warriors, the Pacers have been one of the most unpredictable fantasy teams so far this season.

Season Tracker

The 2009-10 season is 44 percent complete.

Week 12 Schedules

Four Games: DET, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, NOR, NYK, OKC, PHX, SAS, UTA, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, ORL, PHI, SAC, TOR

Two Games: NJN, POR

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 38%) For some inexplicable reason, Hinrich is still under the 40% ownership threshold despite being moved into the starting unit recently. In his eight starts this season, Hinrich averaged 12.1 points on .412/.769 percent shooting, 2.1 threes, 4.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Another key statistic to look at with Captain Kirk is his three point percentage, as the Bulls are desperate for outside shooting. As a reserve, he has shot a pedestrian .322 percent from downtown. As a starter, he has shot an impressive .459 from long range. Hinrich deserves pretty much universal roster consideration.

Erick Dampier (C – 37%) For the entire season, Dampier is putting up top-100 value while providing decent production for a third or fourth string center. His season averages are 8.0 points on .667/.582 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 turnovers. Dampier is a four category specialist (FG%, REB, BLK, TOs) while being a negative in the remaining five categories. He finally appears to be getting healthy again after having to deal with “wear-and-tear” of the left knee. Give Damp a go if you are looking for traditional big man stats and can handle his low scoring.

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 27%) There has been widespread speculation that Gomes would be moved into Minnesota’s starting five sometime relatively soon. Regardless of whether or not he is starting, Ryan should get enough burn to provide fantasy value, especially for those looking for decent scoring off the waiver wire. Over the past two games, Gomes has averaged 15.0 points on .458/.875 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Gomes, while normally primarily simply a scorer, has shown flashes of stat-stuffing. Add Ryan if you have a dropable player to see if he can improve upon his recent strong play.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 21%) Some players just don’t get much respect, whether it be in real life or in fantasy basketball. Apparently, Rasual Butler is one of those players as his actual value and ownership percentage are definitely out of whack. Over the past two weeks, a period that saw Butler play in six games and average over 34 minutes per game, he posted top-50 value. During that period Rasual averaged 12.8 points on .467/.857 percent shooting, 2.5 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. Butler is a nice glue guy, providing a nice boost in threes on low turnovers while also providing decent blocks for a guard-eligible player.

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 21%) Another player that has had a nice run over the past two weeks is Matt Barnes. You may recall Barnes being featured in last week’s preview article by my distinguished colleague, RedHopeful. Pretty much everything Oleh said then still stands. Over the past two weeks, Matt has averaged 13.4 points on .600/.778 percent shooting,1.1 threes, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.4 turnovers.

Rafer Alston (PG – 18%) Alston has to feel like the luckiest player in the NBA right now; it is an absolute certainty. Rafer was waived by the league’s worst team, the 3-33 New Jersey Nets, and signed with the 18-16 Miami Heat, who are currently the fifth best team in the East. In his first game in a Heat uniform (this season), he immediatley leap-frogged both Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers and joined the starting unit. Skip is in line for big minutes for the Heat and should be a good choice for threes, assists and steals if you can handle his offensive field goal percentage.

Ronny Turiaf (PF/C – 6%) It’s always a gamble recommending any Golden State Warrior these days but Turiaf feels like a very strong player for a couple of reasons. First, Anthony “Everyone’s Favorite Sleeper” Randolph recently went down with an ankle injury with no official timetable released yet. However, the injury appears to be relatively serious so we can assume he’ll miss all of this week’s games. Second, fellow big man Andris Biedrins has struggled getting up to speed since returning from his groin injury that sidelined him for most of the season. By default, Turiaf becomes one of the Warriors primary big men in the rotation and he should be an excellent source of blocks off the wire.

Watch List

J.J. Redick (PG/SG – 16%) With Vince Carter out with an injured shoulder, Redick immediately gets upgraded to watch list status. In Carter’s absence, Redick posted a strong line against the Atlanta Hawks dropping 17 points on .583 percent shooting, 3 threes, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. He has even been praised by Coach Stan Van Gundy recently for his play throughout the entire season. In fact, Redick has been really solid over the past four games seeing over 28 minutes per and averaging 16.5 points on .422/.895 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.5 turnovers.

Flip Murray (SG – 5%) If you are looking for cheap scoring off the waiver wire, there may not be a better option out there than Murray. RIght now, Flip is locked-in and playing excellent basketball for the Bobcats. Over the past week, Ronald is ranked well inside of the top fifty players averaging 17.3 points on .550/.933 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.5 turnovers in four games. His percentages are excellent, making his scoring and threes that much more valuable.

A.J. Price (PG/SG – 1%) A.J. officially proved that he belonged in this league after being selected in the second round of this season’s draft. Price set multiple career-highs against the Thunder on Saturday including minutes played, points scored and threes made. In that watershed game, Price posted 23 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 3 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, o blocks and 2 turnovers. With the Pacers going nowhere this season and both Earl Watson and T.J. Ford playing themselves out of the rotation, Price is poised to carve himself a nice niche for the Pacers.

Deep League Special

Donte Greene (SG/SF – 4%) Greene’s window of opportunity is rapidly closing. With Kevin Martin due back sometime relatively soon, Greene will likely take a hit in touches, minutes and production. Thus, Donte should only be viewed as a short-term band-aid in deeper leagues. Over the past two weeks, he has put up top-100 value, making him an extremely valuable pickup in deep formats. In that same span, he averaged11.4 points on .489/1.00 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.0 turnovers.

Keyon Dooling (PG – 2%) At this point in his career, Dooling is a proven commodity, with a decade of experience in the Association. Playing for a relatively young and inconsistent team, he is a veteran presence on and off the court. While he is still rounding into game shape after having offseason hip surgery, Dooling finally showed signs of life recently when he dropped 21 points on the Hornets on Friday. His career per-36 minute stats are 13.3 points on .420/.798 percent shooting, 1.o threes, 2.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.1 turnovers and are a good guide if Dooling were to consistently get big minutes either due to injury of a teammate or simply due to the inconsistent play of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts.

Jon Brockman (SF/PF – 1%) If awesome nicknames were a fantasy category, the Brockness Monster would be a category carrier. But alas, we are left with having to rely on actual production on the basketball court. In that respect, Brockman’s toughness and football-like build have translated to him being an absolute beast on the boards and earning his fresh nickname (12.8 rebounds per-36 minutes). Recently, Brockman even got the starting nod against Denver pushing teammate and general fantasy disappointment Spencer Hawes to the bench. Grab the rebounding monster if you need help on the glass.

Cut List

Larry Hughes (SG/SF – 39%) The Knicks have won three of their last four games. Hughes has seen four consecutive DNP-CDs. Coincidence? I think not. Larry, welcome to Coach Mike D’Antoni’s dog house. Make yourself comfortable; you’re gonna be here a while.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 20%) It is hard to recommend a player for cutting who posted such nice fantasy value earlier in the season. However, barring a trade involving either Elton Brand or Samuel Dalembert, Speights is most likely going to be without fantasy value. If you want further proof that his run is (for now) over, check out his minute totals for his past four games: 6:22; 9:51; 12:01 and 11:11.

Luther Head (PG/SG – 12%) What a difference a week can make. Last week, he was on our Add List. This week he is on our Cut List. That is Luther Head’s career in a nutshell.

Buy Low

Caron Butler (SG/SF – 98%) With Agent Zero suspended indefinitely, Butler has moved up the food chain a notch in Washington. Butler’s best seasons of fantasy value have come with Arenas on the sidelines so there is hope to believe that he will resume his productive ways of the past (top five in per game value in 2007-08 when Arenas only played 13 games; top 30 in per game in 2008-09 when Arenas only played two games). At this point in the season, Butler has posted only top-75 value so it is a decent bet that he will have a much better second half of the season with Arenas most like done for the year.

Pau Gasol (PF/C – 99%) It may be hard to consider top ten player a buy low but that is exactly the case with Pau. Having missed a decent number of games this season with hamstring injuries on both legs, many owners are getting tired of the Lakers’ kid glove treatment of Gasol. When owners are frustrated or are struggling in the standings, you can often get a good deal for the right player. Throw out a solid second-round talent for Pau and see if the other owner bites. You may end up with one of the best big men in both fantasy and in real life.

Sell High

Samuel Dalembert (C – 64%) The problem with selling high is that nobody wants to do it because owning a hot player is so much fun. It’s why we play fantasy sports. However, with a guy like Sammie, if you can get enough value for him you have to pull the trigger. Over the past two weeks, Dally has been a top five talent. Stop and let that sink in. TOP FIVE. During that span, he has averaged 10.9 points on .667/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. He will never be able to keep this pace up for the rest of the season, especially not with Eddie Jordan waiting in the wings to screw everything up. SD is the qunitessential sell high right now.

Lamar Odom (SF/PF – 89%) With Pau out for at least one more game, your window to move Odom for maximum value is limited. Over the past week, Odom has been positively beastly, putting up a rugged 14.0 points on .548/.700 percent shooting, 0.8 threes, 15.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 turnover. Wow. In that span of four games, Odom has been a top ten player in per game value so throw out some trade offers and see if you can get a bona fide stud in return for Mr. Kardashian.

Mystery Man

Gilbert Arenas (PG – 73%) At only 73 percent ownership, the Great Arenas Exodus of 2010 has begun. Let’s face it, the chances of Gilbert playing again this season are slim. However, it is not so cut and dried as to whether he should be simply kicked to the curb; thus, Agent Zero is this week’s Mystery Man. In standard sized, non-keeper, head-to-head leagues Arenas can probably be safely dropped at this point. In roto leagues, where it is easier to carry dead weight, it probably makes sense to stick it out with Gil for a bit until we have more concrete timelines. In deeper formats, it makes more sense to hang on to Gibert if your team can afford to maintain a dead roster spot. Finally, in keeper and dynasty formats, dropping Arenas is not recommended until we hear exactly how harsh his final punsihment will be. Gilbert’s future with the Wizards and the League is truly a mystery at this point so weigh your options carefully before you decide to part ways with this dynamic guard.

This season was supposed to be one that marked the return of the Washington Wizards into the thick of the playoff picture.  Flip Saunders was to be the answer to their coaching problems bringing a veteran presence with a solid postseason record.  For the first time in three years, Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison were going to get to play the majority of the season and prove why management was right to wait for the Big 3.  Unfortunately, two months into the season, it is once again on  the verge of being lost.

The Wizards are currently 10-21, the cellar in the Southeast Division.  They are below average both defensively (20th) and offensively (22nd).  2 of their 3 main cogs, Butler (42.7 FG%, 29.3 3FG%) and Arenas (41.1 FG% and 3.8 TO’s, are obviously having terribly inefficient seasons.  Moreover, these two had an apparent rift come to light in November where Gilbert called out Caron.

However, that has become a distant memory as much more has since transpired.  First, with the Wizards posting a losing record in the month of December of 5-9, Flip Saunders finally openly criticized the Wizard’s play this past Tuesday:

After 30 games, Saunders unloaded on his team like never before, with the most scathing criticism of his players all season. It was arguably the most scathing criticism I’ve ever heard a coach give his team — in person. Saunders kept his cool and never raised his voice, so it does not rank up there with some infamous meltdowns by NFL coaches Jim Mora (Playoffs?! & Couldn’t do diddly-poo), Mike Ditka (Next!) or Dennis Green (They are who we thought they were!). But this was the first time I ever heard a coach tell a room full of reporters that he could put five of them on the floor against his team and have success. It was the first time I heard coach say that, at age 54, he could take any player on his team one-on-one.

Source – Wizards Insider:  Michael Lee

Second, and more importantly, Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton were discovered to be a part of a dispute over the holidays that involved the use of handguns.  Specifically, the incident occurred in the locker room of the Verizon center!  While it is unclear at this time the penalties that will be incurred, undoubtedly something will happen.

Regardless of the details, though, Arenas could be in a world of trouble — with the District and Federal governments, with the league and with the Wizards — with the possibility, remote for now but still there, that the team could ultimately seek to void the remainder of his $111 million contract, signed in 2008.

Source:  David Aldridge

Do you know what makes this more painful to loyal Wizards fans?  The fact it’s a complete slap in the face by their superstar to the once proud owner, Abe Pollin.  Management patiently stood by him during his difficult rehabilitation as evidenced by a completely undeserved new contract.  Then this year, after a lot of substandard play, Agent Zero brought a ton of shame to an organization that changed their nickname in 1995 because of gun violence.

Abe Pollin decided months ago that it was wrong to call his Washington basketball team the Bullets. He pushed up the announcement the other day after flying back from the funeral of a friend, a hero, who had been killed by bullets.

I stood in the spot when Rabin was killed,” Pollin said the other day.

Yitzhak Rabin, the Prime Minister of Israel, was assassinated a week ago Saturday in Tel Aviv. His life was no more precious than the lives of children killed by flying bullets as they cower in apartments in the District of Columbia, or teen-agers gunned down in the heat of an argument. Yitzhak Rabin’s death reinforced Abe Pollin’s belief that something must be done about the nickname.

Source:  New York Times

Guess what – it gets even better:

Arenas was suspended for Washington’s season opener in 2004 because he failed to maintain proper registration of a handgun while living in California in 2003. Arenas formerly played for the Golden State Warriors.

Source:  Huffington Post

Wow, so he was aware of the responsibility of gun ownership, Abe’s take and resulting NBA suspensions yet he thought that his locker was the best place for his guns?  You mean to tell me he couldn’t trouble any one of his countless friends to hang onto them for awhile?  Better yet, if you don’t need them anymore – go sell them, give them away or at least drop them off at the police station!

To no one’s surprise, it appears the Wizard’s organization wants to be done with the embattled guard.  Supposedly the team has inquired about whether other teams are interested in his services.   Most notably, Washington was even willing to trade him for cap relief – Tracy McGrady.  However, according to David Aldridge, “the new investigation also has put any notion of trade talks between Washington, which is resigned to performing radical surgery on its roster and is now willing to trade anyone — including Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison — and other teams on hold indefinitely.”

Since the Wizards are in a holding pattern, what should you be contemplating as a fantasy owner?

Ultimately, it appears licensed-to-ill Agent Zero is going to miss games at some point.  It is anyone’s guess at this time as to when or how many, but expect the worst.  Besides the tough stance by the District of Columbia, the NBA expressed their sentiments in the past which resulted in an amendment to the 2006 Collective Bargaining Agreement banning firearms in a number of places.  David Stern was particularly adamant about his thoughts on guns:

Before the 2006-07 season, David Stern called the trend of pro athletes carrying weapons to defend themselves “an alarming subject” and went on record as saying that if it were not part of the collective bargaining agreement, he wouldn’t allow players to carry guns, short of “being able to have a firearm to protect your home. Period.”

Source:  New York Daily News

Consequently, even if Arenas manages to evade legal prosecution, I expect at a minimum, a hefty fine and suspension.  However, the NBA and the Wizards organizations have stated they will reserve judgement until the authorities have concluded their investigations and/or a court of law has had its say.  Thus, Gilbert will continue to play.  For those unlucky few who drafted him, look for an opportunity to try to trade him after a nice stretch of a few games.  This is really applicable to keeper leagues as the short end of the stick could occur next season.  Definitely avoid buying low on him as something like this will hang over his and the team’s head until it’s resolved.  With the pathetic start the Wizards have gotten off to, it’ll be magnified.

Every year there are players who will begin the season at a torrid pace. They rebound, steal, block and shoot their way to the top of the fantasy rankings right out of the gate. Conversely, on the less exciting side, there are also players you drafted early hoping they will have a stellar season for your team only to find out that they are anything but the great player you had hoped for.

This dichotomy can be so maddening for some owners that it will cause them to make rash decisions that savvy managers can exploit for their own selfish purposes (winning). Everyone likes a good deal and the fantasy community is no different. If you can find a manager who is tired of watching one of their star players under-perform, offer him a trade for a player(s) of less clout. The idea is to trade for a top-notch type player while he is at his statistical worst, buy low. Or trade away your over-achiever for a slumping stud, sell high.

The Buy Low

Before any trades are proposed, you need to consider a few things about the player(s) you are giving up as well as the player(s) you are receiving. When buying low, consider that you are essentially hunting in the bargain-bin at your local thrift store. The items (players) may have been nice at one time but now are used and a little worn out.

A few things to consider. Is the player coming off a down season that was an anomaly when compared to the rest of his career? Think Josh Smith last year, a year where he had career-lows in basically every statistical category (points, blocks, assists, rebounds) versus his play this year. Hopefully that year was just that, an anomaly, and the player will hopefully bounce back to his previous success of seasons past. Also, consider any injury history. Any player coming off of a major injury or surgery is surely going to have his value discounted at draft time. Finally, the true buy low player, a guy who just flat-out is not playing well at all but has a strong past track record to use as a reference point.

Here are a few buy low candidates to consider early on in the season.

The Injured Player. Kevin Martin and Chris Paul are two fantastic fantasy players that are viable buy low candidates at this point in the season and illustrate the injury aspect well.  No one wants to have an injured player on their roster. Its no fun watching one of your premier players accumulate zeros across the board night after night. After a few days or weeks of having to sit through an injury it can be beneficial to approach a slumping manager with a trade proposal for an injured star.

The other K-Mart has a hairline fracture in his left wrist that required surgery on November 9th. He is due out anywhere from 6-8 weeks but could be out longer as he doesn’t have the best track record for staying healthy. Owners needing a lift in threes, points, and free throw percentage may want to make a play for him. With a guy like Martin, it may make sense to wait a while to let the owner’s frustration grow to the breaking point.

Chris Paul is also out of action due to an ankle sprain and the initial prognoses is that he will be out for approximately one month. Making a trade proposal for CP3 requires a little bit more effort and tact. It is no easy process to get an owner to give up his number one pick, let alone the first or second overall pick in the draft. Paul is most likely only out a few weeks not an extended period so one would have to give up a quality player(s) that are not only healthy but are also producing top tier value. The key here is to not go too overboard in who you are willing to give up. Sure Paul can easily win a number of categories and possibly it all for your team but he isn’t worth it if you have to strip your roster to the bear bones just to acquire him. If Paul’s owner is losing bad it could benefit you to make a play for him ASAP while he is still out for a few weeks and the owner is still antsy to get a productive body in his lineup.

This type of buy low is especially effective when tried on managers at the bottom of the standings. They are more likely to be willing to deal an injured stud for lesser value in order to keep from falling too far behind and out of the playoff hunt.

The Player Returning from Injury. Pretty self explanatory here. Target a player who is just getting ready or has just returned from injury. Anytime a player has an injury that forces them to miss extended amounts of time, he usually comes back rusty and has a few bad games early on. Currently, there are multiple players that fit this bill including Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Pau Gasol. Gordon and Love are still injured but are due back sooner rather than later and Gasol should be back to return Thursday night against the Bulls.

All three players are productive and can help virtually any team. When they do finally suit up, be sure to monitor their first couple of games. If they start out slow, send a trade proposal to open up tentative trade talks (nothing insulting). Most likely they will regain their form in a few games and will be right back to where they were before their injury. Just don’t wait too long because once they do fully recover, their value will drastically increase and your opportunity to buy low will be closed forcing you to pay full market value to obtain him.

Note: Be more cautious with major structural injuries that require months of rehabilitation as effects can often linger. Think Elton Brand trying to come back from his Achilles injury over the past couple of seasons.

The Slumping Player. Simple, go after any player who is performing below their career averages or your expected averages for this season. The idea here is the law of averages. If a player has performed at a certain (high) level for many years and is currently under-performing, he most likely will pick his game up at some point and eventually will end up performing at or near his career averages. A few players to consider under this model are Brand, Jose Calderon, Thaddeus Young and John Salmons.

All are in major slumps compared to their historical production and could be had on the cheap (well Brand’s window may be closed after his vintage performance against the Bobcats last night: 19 points on .471/.750 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 6 blocks and 1 turnover). One major caveat here is to be careful for a player currently slumping that also just signed a major extension, think Luol Deng in 2008-09, minus the stress fracture. Sometimes players just don’t have that fire in them after the big pay day and it can affect their entire season. For an excellent more in-depth article on Salmons,  check out the latest Great Debate piece.

Other buy lows to consider: Caron Butler, Al Jefferson.

The Sell High

If one of your players is playing such great basketball that it seems unlikely that he will continue to keep pace, then selling high is your best option to get positive returns on your player investment.

The Injury Fill-In. Anytime a starter goes down he opens up a spot for a bench player to shine. They can often be great pick-ups for the short term but will quickly lose their value once the starter returns. One player to unload immediately, like as in yesterday, is Andray Blatche. With a Basketball Monster rank of 65th overall in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 53rd overall in per game value, Blatche’s value is as high as it ever will be. Antawn Jamison is back from a shoulder injury and the party is officially over for Andray. In Jamison’s first game back, Blatche had 6 points and zero rebounds in just over 17 minutes.

Rookies. Rookies have become more intriguing over the past couple of years and are capable of making an immediate fantasy impact. Guys like O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose had managers salivating last season. This year, Tyreke Evans, Blake Griffin (even though he hasn’t even played a game yet) and Brandon Jennings have all been hot commodities. Jennings in particular appears to have been the steal of the draft (in both real life and in fantasy) with an average draft position of 126th overall in Yahoo! leagues. His 55 point outburst against Golden State last week got everyone’s attention and if you are skeptical of his ability to continue at such a high rate, now is the time to start shopping him. His current Ziguana rank is 15th overall. I’m not saying he won’t be great the rest of the year because he easily can be, but consider that it is early in a long season.

Rookies are not used to the physical demands of the NBA and its grueling 82 game schedule. The fabled “rookie wall” is very important to consider. Usually sometime mid-season around the 45-50 game mark, rookies start to slow down and their production drops. It is part of the game, learning how to keep your body healthy for the length of the season and rookies sometimes forget that the season is a marathon not a sprint. Watch out for the rookie wall and consider selling high before it happens to your rooks, especially if you can get a proven stud in return.

The Injury-Prone Player. The classic sell high candidate is the injury-prone player. A guy who always seems to miss time each season but is a strong player when healthy. To look at it from another perspective, they have high per game values but low cumulative values. There are  many players that fall into this category and it can often be tough to cut ties with a player who is playing to his full potential. This season there have been a number of players you could label as injury-prone who are healthy and are rewarding their owners.

Two of the best example are Staples Center big men Chris Kaman and Andrew Bynum. Over the past two seasons combined, they have missed 77 and 79 games respectively. But this year they are both healthy so far and are producing a per game Ziguana rank of 49th and 12th overall, respectively. When they are healthy they can carry your team in blocks and rebounding while providing solid percentages and points. But with multiple, serious injuries in the past, their durability is definitely an issue to consider. Kaman seems to have found his rhythm and is playing very well. Ongoing nagging injuries and simply being old could keep Marcus Camby “day-to-day” for longer than expected making Kaman’s production sustainable for the foreseeable future. Even with Blake Griffin due back next month from injury, expect Kaman’s value to hold strong. Bynum is a little more of a wild card. Two major knee surgeries in the past are signs owners might be a little scared of. However his 20.3 points on .591/.717 percent shooting, 0.0 threes,  11.8 rebounds 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.8 blocks and 2.3 turnovers make Bynum a major sell high candidate, just be sure you get quality value in return for the young center. Also, just remember that Bynum has posted these numbers with Pau on the floor this season, which is another reason to consider selling high on Andrew.

Other sell highs to consider: Marc Gasol, Channing Frye.

Regardless of league type or scoring settings, one should always consider the relative risk factors associated with drafting a player who is considered injury prone. You have to consider the type of production you can expect relative to what round he is being drafted in. If the player is heavily injury prone you may not get full value out of your pick.

A great example from last season would be Amare Stoudemire. He was universally considered a top four pick last season and was drafted as such. After missing 29 games due to a retina injury, he failed to produce value even close to a first round pick, let alone top five value. If a top pick goes down due to injury, even the most savvy fantasy manager can find themselves in a predicament.

In order to ease some of the confusion and turmoil associated with draft day, consider some of the league’s most injury prone players. Guys you might want to think twice about before drafting. Not to say that they are bad players, but they can’t help your team sitting on the bench in street clothes (I’m looking at you Mr. Arenas and your fancy ascot).

Now the criteria to determine who is an “injury risk” and who is not is no clear-cut science. It is not as simple as saying that if you missed x number of games the last season(s) then you automatically go on to a list. Conversely, we also are not saying that just because you have only missed a few games doesn’t mean that you are not an injury risk.

There is simply no substitute for doing your own research and reading up on players yourself.

Instead of looking at many of the more well-known injury-prone players such as Gilbert Arenas, Carlos Boozer, Caron Butler, Manu Ginobili, Andrew Bynum, Kevin Garnett, Dwayne Wade, etc. This list is reserved for some of the less obvious players who still have the unique ability to either lead a team to victory or tear down a fantasy franchise if injured.

The first player on our list is not only the highest ranked player but probably one of the more well-known injury prone players that we will comment on. This spot is reserved for Indiana Pacer Danny Granger. Going into his fifth NBA season Granger has established himself as one of the best go-to-guys in the league.

As the Pacer’s number one option, he holds plenty of fantasy value and will be a top ten fantasy pick this year in virtually every format. He can score from the inside or beyond the three point line. He has size, athleticism, passing ability, and is only 26 years old. Most importantly he has incredible heart and hustle.

He has increased his scoring average output by five points in three consecutive seasons (the first player in NBA history to do so) and was an All-Star last season. With 2008-09 season averages of 25.8 points on .447/.878 percent shooting, 5.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists,1.o steals, 1.5 blocks and 2.5 turnovers per game it is easy to see why he is such a hot fantasy commodity.

Another aspect of Danny’s game that has also increased incrementally each season since his rookie year is his minutes per game. His rookie year Granger averaged over 22 MPG and during the past two seasons he has averaged over 36 MPG. This is a substantial amount of minutes for any NBA player to average over the course of an 82 game season.

Granger has a history of ailments dating back to his college days. His junior year at the University of New Mexico he had surgery on his shoulder. He had arthroscopic knee surgery on his left knee as a senior, which caused him to miss a few games.  Last year Granger missed 15 games including a stretch in February and March where he missed eleven straight games. This comes after only missing a total of six games in his first three seasons combined.

What caused him to miss the eleven straight games was a tendon tear he sustained in his right foot. As a result, he was constantly hampered by soreness in his right knee during the second half of last season. With at least 36 minutes per game coming to him again this season, be sure to monitor Granger’s health routinely.

Don’t not avoid Danny on draft day because of his injury history because he will more than likely be fantasy gold next season. Just realize that you are most likely drafting a few DNP’s throughout the season if you go with Granger in the first round. This is one of the main reasons it makes sense to draft Kevin Durant ahead of Granger in most formats.

The second player on the injury docket is Brazil’s own Nene. Now Nene is the true definition of an injury risk and has only been able to complete 80 or more games once in his seven year career (his rookie season in 2002-03). Going into his eighth season, Nene has managed to miss a staggering 204 games, or an average of just over 29 games missed per season.

Last year he played in 77 games and had his greatest fantasy year by far (and a career year in real life) after averaging 14.6 points per game on .604/.723 percent shooting, 7.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.3 blocks and 1.9 turnovers per game. This stat line probably represents Nene at, or very near, his fantasy ceiling. With well-rounded production like that it is easy to see the value in drafting Nene in the early middle rounds of drafts.

But be careful; his injury istory is no laughing matter and is not overstated. In 2004-05, Nene missed 23 games due to injury (he suspended for four games). Damage to his left knee’s MCL caused him to be out thirteen games. Then he was out ten games due to a right hip contusion and a strained left hamstring.

On opening night in 2005-06, he tore his ACL three minutes into the season and went on to miss the entire rest of the season. In 2006 he missed 18 games, 16 of which were directly related to inflammation from a right knee contusion.

And to keep the injury streak alive and strong, in 2007-08, he managed to play in just 16 games. This time a combination of testicular cancer  (he is more than just injury prone), a right groin strain and a torn ulner collateral ligament  in his left thumb. These ailments kept Nene out of action for a combined 66 games.

These are major injuries and illnesses that should not be taken lightly. Just keep all of this in mind when reviewing Nene’s statistics from last season. Nene needs to stay healthy in order to justify this years average draft position, which is 51 according to Busersports, making him an early fifth round selection.

In the end, no one can predict which players will miss a significant amount of time next season. There are always freak injuries that simply cannot be predicted (see Francisco Garcia’s recent weightlifting accident). Just make sure that if you are drafting a player with a significant injury history you know exactly what you selecting (and how many games you are likely to miss out on).

With the upcoming NBA season still a few months away, it’s time to take an early look at the fantasy prospects for a team that threatens to be very relevant: the Washington Wizards. Last season was a forgettable one for the Wizards (to say the least).

Washington finished the season with an embarrassing 19-63 record, making them the second worst team in the league behind Sacramento’s lowly mark of 17-65. They began last season with a record of 1 and 10, which prompted the firing of then head coach Eddie Jordan. The team never managed to recover from the rough start, finishing out the year with a string of insipid performances.

Sure, they had a rough go of it last year, injuries caused their best player, Gilbert Arenas, to miss all but two games (he did average 13 and 10 though, technically speaking). Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood both missed a significant amount of games as well. Outside of DC, it is rarely mentioned what an impact Haywood has for the Wizards, both on and off the court.

That being said, it is a new season for the Wizards and their outlook is significantly better for 2009-10.

The Wizards were one of the most active teams this off-season. They began their roster tune-up with a pre-draft trade with Minnesota, sending Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, Oleksiy Pecherov and the 5th overall selection in the 2009 draft, in exchange for guard/forward Mike Miller and guard Randy Foye. This was a big time move by the Wizards aimed at vaulting them back to contender status in the East.

The Bullets Wizards have entered the arms race in the Eastern Conference.

They traded spare parts (and a rotation player in Songaila) and their lottery pick, which turned out to be Ricky Rubio, to bring in a few veterans to help right away. The move should definitely improve their win total significantly next season while helping take some of the offensive load off the oft-injured and aging core of: Arenas, Butler and Antawn Jamison.

With a new-and-improved squad heading into next season, the Wizards should provide a variety of quality fantasy options for managers to tap. The key is to correctly identify which Wiz will be in the rotation, as Coach Saunders has made it known that his rotation only consists of eight players.

Take a look at the Wizards roster:

PG: Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton, Mike James
SG: Randy Foye, Nick Young, DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Caron Butler, Mike Miller, Dominic McGuire
PF: Antawn Jamison, Andray Blatche
C: Brendan Haywood, JaVale McGee, Francisco Oberto

The 2009-10 team is very guard heavy. Six of their fourteen players currently under contract are pure guards. Arenas is the starting point guard and is a lock to receive steady minutes, at least 35 per game, as long as he is healthy. He is obviously a great fantasy player when not being hindered by his surgically repaired knee (first round ceiling if healthy). Expect Gilbert to have a bounce back year this coming season after basically missing out on the previous two seasons due to injury.

This guy is a competitor and he wants to win, especially when LeBron James‘ Cavs are in town. Plus, he’s been working out with Tim Grover, who has helped guys like Dwayne Wade recover from injury. Hopefully he will be the guy who could drain threes from anywhere on the court and blow by a defender with ease.

If he is completely healthy I would expect Arenas to provide healthy numbers for his owners somewhere along the lines of 20.5 points per game on 43/80 percent shooting, 2.0 threes, 5.7 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 0.2 blocks and 3.0 turnovers.

The rest of the Wizard’s guards won’t hold as much value as Arenas, but some will still be fantasy relevant. Mike Miller (who can also play forward) should improve on the rather forgettable season last year. With plenty of other offensive options for defenses to worry about, Miller should get a good number of decent looks from the perimeter where he is not afraid to fire away.

Expect his three point percentage to rise from last year’s 37 percent mark back up to somewhere near his career average of 40 forty. Miller could average close to 12.0 points per game on 45/75 percent shooting, 2.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists with under a couple of turnovers.

Randy Foye should either start at shooting guard or be the first guard off the bench to backup Arenas. Foye had the best year of his career last year while playing big minutes for the woeful Timberwolves. Expect his production to be reduced this year as he will see fewer minutes in his reserve role. Although good in real life, depth is a fantasy killer as it means stiffer competition for the limited supply of minutes.

His ability to find playing time really rests upon the health of Arenas’ knee. If he is only getting around 20-25 minutes per night he may be worth a very late round selection in leagues of 12 teams or more. I expect Foye to have a much bigger impact on the Wizard’s win/loss column than he will in the fantasy world.

The other Wizard guards are most likely fantasy casualties of the recent trade and Arenas’ new-found health. Mike James and DeShawn Stevenson will see drastic minute reductions as well and should hold no fantasy value next season. Nick Young could see a major reduction from his 22.4 minutes he averaged last season, as his role was instant offfense off the bench.  He may not make it into Saunders’ eight man group next season. Beware.

Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison will continue to hold a lot of fantasy value next season. Jamison is pretty much a lock for 20/8 with a steal and close to two assists for good measure all on 45 percent shooting from the field and 35 percentfrom beyond the arc. He is getting older (he turned 33 this year) and one has to wonder when the drop-off in production will occur. However, the thing to remember is that Jamison is an old school gamer and competes night in and night out.

Butler’s fantasy relevance relies heavily on his health. He’s had an outstanding couple of fantasy seasons for the past few years now and should continue to do so as long as he can stay on the court. Caron missed fifteen games last year, 24 games in 2007-08 and 19 games in 2006-07. That is not exactly the “Cal Ripken Jr model of health” that the Wizards would hope for from one of the cornerstones of their franchise.

Butler has had the biggest work load placed on his shoulders the past two seasons as he attempted to carry the team’s offense in the wake of Arenas’ injuries. The heavy minutes combined with his penchant for taking contact really wore Butler down over the course of the season. The biggest knock on him the past few years was his absence during the final stretch of the fantasy season, when head-to-head owners needed him most.

If he stays healthy this year he will reward his fantasy owners handsomely, somewhere along the lines of 20.0 points per game on 46/85 percent shooting, 6.0 rebounds, 3.o assists, 1.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.7 turnover. He’ll also chip in a three pointer per game.

With all of the talent they now have in the Capitol, the Wizards will offer many servicable fantasy options, while undoubtedly improving on last season’s awful disappointing record.