Basketball Free For All

It’s the final countdown!  Before I get into this week’s list, I’ve got to keep harping over these guys whose ownership is just over 40%:  Carlos Delfino, George Hill, Taj Gibson and Drew Gooden.  Hill looks to be primed to finish the year like a beast thanks to Tony Parker’s broken hand.  Gibson has excellent prospects as well as Joakim Noah isn’t even close to being a force in the paint anytime soon.  Lastly, Gooden and Delfino seem they’ll be able to continue their multi-cat ways.

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When one door closes, another one opens — or so the saying goes, anyways. With the trading period closed in the NBA, it is time to scour the waiver wire and see if the trades opened up any doors for your fantasy teams. As my distinguished colleague Oleh pointed out in his breakdown of the fantasy fallout from last week’s trades, there is plenty of value to be had as a result of trades, injuries and everything in between.

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Wondering what will be the effects of all the major deals prior to today’s deadline?  Well, worry no more as Justin and I are here to help clear up any confusion.  I’ll handle the relevant fantasy perspective while Justin will tackle the realistic implications in a subsequent article.  If we happen to miss anything or you simply have a question, as always, feel free to leave a comment below.

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As we arrive at the mid-point of the season, it becomes apparent that the early season success of a few players is more than just a fluke hot start. These players may have been decent contributors in the past but never gained mainstream attention outside of their own team’s fan base. These are the players that should be considered for the Most Improved Player Award.

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Week Eight brought it’s fair share of drama and story lines on the court. On the injury front, a group of players eaither came back from injury early or announced their intention to return from injury early (see below). On the bizarre injury front, Dirk Nowitzki’s elbow had an appointment with five of Carl Landry’s teeth, with Dirk walking away with pieces of Carl’s teeth lodged in his elbow. That injury sounds excruciating for both players, who were both coincidentally having phenomenal seasons.Hopefully these guys make it back from injury quickly and resume their productive ways on the court.

HOUSEKEEPING

Basketball Free For All is looking for a few good men or women to join the crew. Specifically, we are looking for new writers to contribute on a weekly basis. If you read BFFA regularly you should know the skills required: knowledge of statistics, general basketball knowledge, fantasy basketball knowledge, quality writing skills, a willingness to question commonly held views and being awesome in general. If you are interested in inquiring further, shoot me an email at plonden [at] basketballfreeforall.com (obviously replacing [at] with @ before you send the email) and we’ll talk specifics. Also, we would obviously welcome others with unique skills (web skills, programming, statistics, marketing, business, whatever) who are interested in contributing to the Free For All so just inquire if you are interested.

WEEK NINE SCHEDULES

Two Games: CHA, MEM, NJN, NOR, PHI, TOR

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, LAL, MIA, MIL, MIN, NYK, OKC, ORL, POR, SAC, UTA, WAS

Four Games: CLE, HOU, IND, LAC, PHO, SAS

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Joel Przybilla (C – 39%) As a starter, Przybilla has averaged 5.7 points on .500/.625 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.5 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers. His offensive efficiency has nose-dived this season but his defense is just as good if not better than last season. His mass alone will keep him on the court this season so give Ghostface Przybilla a look for blocks and boards.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 26%) If one thing is certain in Philly, it is that Speights is the type of big man that excels in Eddie Jordan’s offensive system. Speights has picked up right where he left off since returning from his MCL injury. Over his past three games, Marreese has posted extremely solid averages of 19.7 points on .468/.682 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 7.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers, effectively crushing the previously burgeoning fantasy value of Samuel Dalembert, who played 14.7 minutes per game during the same span (although foul trouble played a role as well). Your window to sell high on Dally has been effectively closed until he gets moved or an injury to another Sixers big man occurs. The only downside is the Philadelphia only plays two games next week, although it is mitigated by the fact that Speights is an excellent pickup for the long-term.

C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 18%) Over the past two weeks, Watson has been a top fifty player, which has been extremely surprising. The odds are greatly stacked against C.J. being able to produce at such a high level for the remainder of the season, as the Warriors offense is run almost exclusively through Monta Ellis. For evidence, check out Watson’s usage percentage of a mere 14.0 percent compared to Ellis’ 29.4 usage percentage. As a result, Watson’s steals (1.5 per game this season and 2.0 per game over the past two weeks) make up the lion’s share of his fantasy value so give Watson an add if you are looking for a low turnover steal specialist.

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 13%) So far, Casspi has proven to be one of the early surprises of the 2009 NBA Draft for the Sacramento Kings. Based on his recent strong play, Omri has moved into the Kings’ starting lineup and looks to remain there at least until Kevin Martin returns from his wrist injury. For an idea of what his numbers would look like if given extended burn, check his per-36 minute averages of 17.3 points on .513/.577 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 5.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. As the season has progressed, Casspi has also improved each month from the free throw line, meaning his early struggles from the line were probably confidence-related and that we can expect continued improvement over time.

Jose Juan Barea (PG – 12%) In his fourth season in the NBA, Barea is posting career-highs across the board. Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle has noticed, increasing J.J.’s minutes largely at the expense of rookie guard Rodrigue Beaubois, who has the physical tools to carve out a nice role for himself in this league one day. Over the past four games, Barea has averaged 16.3 points on .553/.857 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers per game. Players that are putting up over fifteen points per game don’t wallow on the wire for very long so grab J.J. and hope his hot hand can continue.

WATCH LIST

Jerryd Bayless (PG – 9%) In true Arizonan fashion, Bayless dropped the best line of his short NBA career against the Phoenix Suns last Thursday, while doing his part to push the Suns winless streak on TNT to 17 games. On Thursday, Bayless put up 29 points in a game that ended up being decided by only two points. Without a doubt, he is a big part of why the short-handed Blazers upset the Suns. The following game, Bayless saw his minutes increased to over thirty minutes against Orlando. Most notably, Jerryd played more minutes than Steve Blake. In short, Bayless is on his way to becoming a big time scorer. For reference, check his per-36 minute stats of 21.7 points on .530/.764 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 3.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks and 1.9 turnovers. The one thing that jumps out is that Bayless has poor defensive statistics and subpar threes for a guard. This combination does not bode well for fantasy value, as elite guards usually need to do more than simply score in order to maintain their fantasy value.

Kyle Lowry (PG/SG – 8%) Lowry qualifies for the watch list this week based upon his monster line against the Mavericks on Friday even though he put up a stinker on Saturday. Lowry’s line was so impressive, it bears repeating here to marvel. With Landry out with the aforementioned dental injury, Lowry stepped up and dropped 26 points on .615/.778 percent shooting, 3 threes, 6 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 steals, 1 block and 2 turnovers. If only there were some way to predict when these random epic fantasy lines were going to occur? That, my friends, is the proverbial fantasy holy grail, the pursuit of which is a quixotic mission. Just remember to run to the wire and pickup Lowry if Aaron Brooks ever misses significant time.

Earl Watson (PG – 4%) Watson has moved ahead of T.J. Ford on the Pacers depth chart, stealing the starting point guard honors from Ford on Saturday night. With the Pacers struggling this season and missing franchise player, Danny Granger, lineup shakeups were to be expected. Monitor the situation closely over the next week and move Watson from the watch list to your roster should the upward trend on his minutes continue and he produces in his time on the floor. That second caveat was necessary after Earl’s 3 point, 5 rebound, 5 assist showing on Saturday night. Worst case scenario, the Pacers point guard spot will be a time share with Ford and Watson killing each other’s value.

Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 3%) Over the past few games Wright has finally started to turn his potential into production. Wright has been (incorrectly) picked as a breakout player over the last couple of years but has been derailed by a series of injuries. Recently, however, Wright has finally been putting everything together and has been seeing increasing minutes as a result. Over the past five games, Wright has played 27.8 minutes per game posting averages of 13.2 points on .583/1.00 percent shooting, 1.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.4 turnovers. Wright has been doing two things on the court that really make coaches happy, notably playing active defense and taking care of the ball.

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 26%) Captain Kirk has never been the most efficient scorer on the floor, but he certainly has never had such a terrible shooting season like he has this year. However, Hinrich’s early troubles this season were strongly related to his thumb injury from November and are thus not just a regular shooters’ slump. With the Bulls in desperate need of three point shooting (28th in three point percentage, 30th in both three pointer made and attempted), Hinrich should earn his keep from downtown, as he is a career .377 percent shooter from behind the arc. Don’t expect elite fantasy production from Kirk at this point but more outings similar to his game against the Hawks on Saturday night are on the horizon: 13 points on .556/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 0 turnovers.

C.J. Miles (SG/SF – 3%) Miles has had an up and down season thus far, which started terribly after tearing a ligament in his thumb. While he was out, rookie guard Wesley Matthews stepped up and played well for the Jazz causing speculation that Miles’ starting job was lost for good. However, Miles recently showed up and played an instrumental role for the Jazz in securing a win against the Bobcats on Saturday night. Miles dropped 20 points on .500/.500 percent shooting, 3 threes, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks and 1 turnover. Most notably, Miles topped the 30 minute mark for the first time this season with the undrafted Matthews only seeing seven minutes of game time despite getting the starting nod. With another performance or two like last night’s, Miles will be scooped off the wire in most leagues.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jared Jeffries (SG/SF – 3%) Like Chuck Hayes at the start of this season, Jeffries’ fantasy line is not fashionable but rather purely functional. JJ is a nice player that is essentially a defensive specialist, especially if you are punting points or are already dominant in points and can carry a negative contributer for scoring. As he is being showcased for potential trades, Jeffries has logged 33.3 minutes per game over the past two weeks and has averaged 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks over the same span. Again, Jared should only be added in deep leagues that are looking to beef up the defensive categories.

Goran Dragic (PG/SG – 1%) Second year Slovenian point guard Goran Dragic looks to finally be getting comfortable playing basketball at the NBA level. In the past week, Dragic played the best basketball of his career against the Suns’ arch-nemesis (setting a career high 18 points against the team that drafted him), the San Antonio Spurs. Most impressively, Dragic played tough defense holding Spurs shooting guard Manu Ginobili to only seven points while also visibly frustrating him. With the Suns making a long home stand and being the only undefeated team at home in the NBA, Dragic should see increased burn during both close games and garbage time.

Serge Ibaka (C – 1%) Ibaka’s minutes are trending upward as this season progresses, as he has really impressed Coach Scott Brooks with his hustle when given playing time. Over the past couple of games, Ibaka has been given nearly 23 minutes per game and has responded with a decent fantasy line of 11 points on .786/0.00 percent shooting (on zero free throw attempts), 0.0 threes, 6.5 rebounds, 0.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Ibaka is largely specialized in the big man categories but could really pile up the blocks if given enough PT (2.6 blocks per 36 minutes). For deep dynasty leagues, Ibaka is a player that should probably be rostered at this point based upon his potential alone.

Jonathan Bender (SF/PF – 0%) Taken fifth overall out of high school in the 1999 NBA Draft, Bender has widely been recognized as one of the biggest draft busts in the NBA as knee injuries cut his career short. Nearly four years later, Bender is back and is playing for the New York Knicks. In his first game back in the NBA, Bender put up 9 points on .500/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, o steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. With zero percent ownership, Bender is available everywhere and should be monitored to see if he can flourish and make the cut for Coach Mike D’Antoni’s short rotation.

COMING BACK FROM INJURY

Lou Williams (PG/SG – 41%) He’s baaack and way ahead of schedule to boot. In his first game back he played over 23 minutes although admittedly showing his rust on the court. It was reported that Williams lost a few pounds while on his liquid diet (courtesy of Antawn Jamison). Look for Williams to return to the starting unit soon and get back on track with his breakout season. Based upon his early season play, he should not be on a single waiver wire.

Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 39%) TT is targeting a December 26th return to game action after fracturing his arm in a weightlifting accident. He is slated to return to practice today so pay attention to any updated timelines in the next couple of days.

Leandro Barbosa (PG/SG – 53%) Merry Christmas! Barbosa is planning on returning to game action on December 25th against the Clippers, nearly a full month after he severely sprained his ankle against the Raptors. Barbosa was finally starting to string a few solid games together when he went down so look for him to resume his strong play sometime in early January.

Yi Jianlian (PF – 21%) Out since early November with an MCL injury, Yi is slated to return to game action this Wednesday against Minnesota. His retun was delayed a couple of weeks after a vicious Sean Williams elbow during practice that required 50 stitches. Hopefully, the elbow was a blessing in disguise as it kept Jianlian sidelined a bit longer and made sure his MCL injury was fully healed to prevent further injury. Yi is cruising dangerously close to earning the “injury-prone” label, which is stigma that is not easily erased.

STAY THE COURSE

Tyson Chandler – (C – 46%) It’s hard to understate how disappointing Tyson has been this season. His season averages of 6.5 points on .490/.727 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 6.8 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. The jump in turnovers was expected, as he is no longer playing with the game’s best point guard, Chris Paul. However, no one was expecting such a dramatic drop-off in almost every other category. Recently, he pulled down twelve or more rebounds in two of his past three games. After being called out by his teammates for his lack of heart and lack of effort, look for Chandler to respond to the challenge and pickup his subpar play.

Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 53%) Widely touted as a breakout player or sleeper before this season started, New Jersey’s Courtney Lee has had an unusual season playing for the league’s worst team. Don’t give up on this young swingman and expect his season averages of 11.0 points on .381/.810 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.0 turnovers to increase. Lee’s shooting efficiency has suffered greatly from his move from a deep and talented team to a thin and awful team has caused opposing defenses to turn greater attention to forcing him to take bad shots. However, his low turnovers coupled with nice steal numbers have made Lee a decent options for teams that can handle his poor shooting.

Anthony Morrow (SG/SF – 62%) One of the league’s best pure shooters has suddenly lost his stroke. Since missing time for a funeral, A-Mo has gone absolutely frigid from the field. On the season, he is shooting a respectable .487 from the field,  a scorching .462 from downtown and an elite .900 from the free throw line. Morrow has serious .500/.400/.900 potential. Over the past six games, however, Anthony has shot a miserable .268/.292/1.00. Hey, at least his free throws are still falling. Being a pure shooter, Morrow will come around doing what he does best: hoisting ‘em at the rim.

CUT LIST

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 12%) Psycho T has proven a lot in his short NBA career. Most importantly, he has proven to the doubters that he will be an effective player at the NBA level one day. However, he has proven that he has not developed the go-to moves necessary to be an efficient scorer in the Association. These moves will come in time, as Hansbrough has proven to be a relentless worker during his tenure at North Carolina and with the Pacers. However, outside of teams that are punting field goal percentage, Tyler’s .372 percent shooting from the field on 8.2 attempts per game is too crippling for widespread roster consideration.

Anderson Varejao (PF/C – 47%) Sideshow Bob’s fantasy value tends to go the way of his defensive production. AV’s real life and fantasy value never has and never will be predicated on his offensive production. Instead, his value comes from boards, blocks and steals. Recently, his rebounds have stayed somewhat stable but his blocks and steals have dried up, crippling his worth to fantasy teams.

MYSTERY MAN

Mario Chalmers (PG – 61%) This week sees another first for the Preview post: the Mystery Man selection. And there is no better player to be the inaugural Mystery Man than Miami’s Mario Chalmers. Heading into this season after a surprisingly strong rookie season that saw Chalmers post top-75 per game value and nearly top-50 cumulative value, Chalmers has disappointed virtually across the board. A sophomore slump, perhaps? Not only has he failed to progress in multiple categories, but he has actually regressed as well, most notably in steals (from 2.0 last season to 1.5 this season), which accounted for the vast majority of Mario’s fantasy value last season. As a result, Chalmers has recently been demoted to the second unit and his play has even caused speculation that Mario is not the point guard of the future for Miami. The next few games and weeks will be pivotal for Chalmer’s fantasy value this season so this is definitely a very interesting situation to monitor. How this position battle between Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo plays out remains a mystery for now.

Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

Well, week 2 has come and gone but at a major cost as a number of key players went down.  Among some of the bigger names slated to miss a ton of time are Yi Jianlian, Kevin Martin, Tyrus Thomas and Tayshaun Prince.  Tony Parker, Kenyon Martin and Andris Biedrins look to miss at least a game or two themselves.  Even the swine flu decided to stop by and say hello by claiming the first victim from the NBA – Chris Douglas-Roberts.  In fact, it’s gotten so bad for the New Jersey Nets that they have the league minimum available right now (8) with Brook Lopez the only starter left standing.

Week Three Schedules

Four Games: DAL, GSW, HOU, LAC, MIN, NOH, OKC, PHI, PHO, POR, TOR, UTA

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DEN, DET, LAL, MEM, MIA, NJN, NYK, ORL, SAS

Two Games: IND, MIL, SAC, WAS

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Quentin Richardson — The slimmed down version of Q might be worth owning this year as the Heat are in need of consistent production at SF while he plays for another contract.  Over the last 3 games, he’s averaged over 16 pts, 3 3ptm and 9 boards.  Naturally, he’ll on occasion put up some horrid efficiency numbers, but it shouldn’t be as bad as years past.

Beno Udrih — Coming into the year, I’m pretty sure even Slovenian fans wrote him off.  However, with Kmart going down in flames again, it’s opened the door for Beno.  The last 4 games he’s averaged a little over 16 pts, 1 3ptm and 4 assists on solid percentages.

Chuck Hayes/Carl Landry — Decided to pair up this duo as they both play for the Rockets giving solid boards and FG%.  Go with Hayes if you’re looking for a significant boost in steals (2.3 per game) or choose Landry for points scored (14.3 per game).

Anthony Morrow — Last years 3 point shooting wunderkind, has been on a decent 3 game roll knocking in 17.7 points per game to go along with 2.7 threes.  With Golden State struggling out of the gate, I expect Amo’s role to increase at some point.  GSW will continue to shop Sjax behind closed doors while Nellie will slowly become more drawn to Morrow’s proficient shooting with the passing of each loss.

Corey Brewer — If you don’t mind a horrendous FG%, this former Gator is probably for you.  He’s currently averaging 12.7 points, 4.3 boards, 2.3 steals and almost 1 block a game.  In addition, he’s hit 4 3’s the last two games.

Cut List

Ryan Anderson — Nice run by the kid but expect inconsistent production when he finally gets over his ankle injury.  Vince Carter will be back and Rashard Lewis not too far behind him pushing the new Pat Garrity back to the bench where he’ll have to fight for minutes with Bass, Pietrus and Barnes.

Allen Iverson — Well, the AI experiment in Memphis didn’t last long.  Just a few games under his belt, and Allen is already grumbling about his role.  Also, it can’t be anything good that he just left the team indefinitely to deal with a personal matter.  If it was truly a death in the family or something similar, don’t you think that news would have been released as to avoid speculation?

Martell Webster/Travis Outlaw — It was already bad enough both of these guys were sucking out each other’s fantasy values with a pretty solid timeshare.  Now, it’s gotten progressively worse as Nate McMillan has decided to go with a 3 guard lineup.  With both of them coming off the bench for at least the short term, I’m sure you can find a better option on the waiver wire.

Watch List

Peja Stojakovic — Earlier today, the Hornets stated that Peja will be moved back into the starting lineup.  Not too surprising considering the lackadaisical play by the Hornets wingmen (especially Julian Wright).  Not suggesting he be picked up yet as he still looks stiff as a board and doesn’t offer much to fantasy owners if his shot isn’t dropping.

Omri Casspi — This Israeli-born player seems to be going places.  First, Garcia goes down with a significant injury and then Desmond Mason does so poorly that the Kings just recently decided to waive him.  During preseason, those close to the team raved about his intensity and ability to put the ball in the basket.  Well not much has changed so far in the regular season as he’s definitely worth an add in deeper leagues.  In the near future, he might be worth a pickup in standard leagues too if the Kings decide to limit Nocioni at SF.

Stay the Course

Anthony Randolph — Yeah, many of us who decided to bite the forbidden fruit from the Nellie tree are currently paying the price.  However, I don’t advocate jumping ship quite yet.  First, it appears that Randolph will still manage to get on the court as both Biedrins and Turiaf are struggling with injuries.  Second, in what already looks like a lost season, fans and management might push Nellie to play the young guys as to better prepare them for following seasons.

Deep League Specials

Taj Gibson — When Tyrus Thomas’ bone snapped, Gibson became an intriguing pickup in deeper leagues.  Del Negro prefers to keep Brad Miller as the first big coming off the bench so Taj will get some decent run.  Although he is still quite raw, he has some nice athleticism that should translate to some points, boards and defensive numbers.

Ersan Ilyasova — Say yes to Ersan!  The Bucks’ forwards have not surprisingly been a mess to start the year.  However, Ilyasova offers some hope as he appears to be getting his feet under him in the NBA.  Ilyasova has the ability to fill up the stat sheet as witnessed by his performance in the recent European Championship.

Marcus Thornton — By default, Marcus appears to be in line for an increased role in New Orleans.  Recently, Morris Peterson was put on the inactive list (CHEER) due to his poor play.  Now Byron Scott is giving Devin Brown a shot.  Well, with Devin, it’s only a question of when.  Since Scott has announced Thornton is next on the list, I wouldn’t be surprised if Marcus starts getting solid run by the end of this week.

Houston, do we have a problem?  Perhaps.  This season, the Rockets will be starting the year without any star players on the court.  Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are, what else, taking another injury vacation.  Ron Artest left town for the greener pastures of Los Angeles.  So what can the beloved Rocket faithful expect from a team full of solid complimentary players and a bunch of unprovens?

John Hollinger predicts they’ll finish 9th in the Western Conference while ESPN analysts as a whole have them finishing around 10th.  Dave Berri of Wages of Win Journal thinks they have a good chance of finishing with over 40 wins and gives them a chance to make the playoffs.

Why are these NBA analysts so high on a team that seems to be lacking so much firepower?  Well, they’re believers in the rest of the roster.  The Rockets have a lot of excellent complimentary players in Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry and Luis Scola.  Specifically, these guys, coined ‘low usage high efficiency players’, all post above average Wins Produced by doing a lot of stuff outside of putting up huge scoring numbers.

Many of these analysts think they’ll be able to keep up similar production with a simple increase in minutes.  Herein lies the problem in my opinion.  Asking a few solid players to step up is probably sound.  Asking most of these low usage guys to become high usage guys?  I have a hard time believing it’s as simple as a linear equation.  They are going to have to spend more time on the court but produce AT LEAST at the same rate as prior years.  Don’t forget more than a few of them are also going to have to develop a high volume FG mentality.

When you remove both a McGrady and Ming, what happens?

Opposing defenses now don’t have to concentrate on the highly skilled offensive player(s).  All of a sudden, the complimentary guys become the focal point as they can’t pass off the ball anymore to the star to make something happen.  The onus is in Ariza’s, Scola’s or whomever’s hands to beat that shot clock.  Now, these players who are not adept at handling solid defensive pressure will be called on to make plays possession after possession.

To help illustrate this fact, I took a look at 2006-07 Rockets team?  Why?  They had a multitude of solid win producers like the current Rocket’s team, but more importantly, had 5 games in which both McGrady and Yao Ming missed.  Dikembe Mutombo, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Luther Head, Rafer Alston, Kirk Snyder and Juwan Howard were the 7 primary guys besides the two stars.  Based on their Wins Produced, they should have been close to an average team coming in with 37 wins.

Do you know what they did in those 5 games?  They shot a putrid 38.3% (150-392) from the field and posted an abysmal assists to turnover ratio (71 assists compared to 65 turnovers).  Since they were solid players, they were able to stay close in most of the games (avg loss of 7.2 points) and were only out-rebounded by 4.4 boards.  However, not to win a single game against squads like the 40-win Clippers, 32-win Portland or, my favorite, a 24-win Boston Celtic team?  Yikes!

This years Rocket’s main 7 (Ariza, Battier, Hayes, Landry, Scola, Lowry and Aaron Brooks) have a combined 36.2 wins based on last year’s statistics.  Sounds a lot like the 2006-07 group as they both have solid complimentary players but appear to lack at least a couple of proven scoring mentalities.

If preseason is any indicator, Rockets may indeed be in trouble as they put up a mediocre 4-4 record.  The team combined to shoot a respectable 44% (283-641) from the field but their assists (151) and turnovers (140) were pretty bad.  In addition, new team member, Trevor Ariza, saw his efficiency and rebounding go down from last season.

So far, through two games this season, the Rockets have managed one very fortunate win against the Warriors last night.  They needed every bit of the 12 of 26 shots from 3 point range to eek out a 1 point win.  Despite that peformance, they still have a dismal 41.9% overall field goal percentage on the young season.

Also, it can’t be oversimplified what consistent hardship and failure must do to one’s overall game after enjoying success the last several years.  Consistently putting up more shots than one’s accustomed to while becoming much less adept.    Less cheering/excitement for home games.  Local media outlets start talking about the lottery.  The overall lack of positive feelings have a good chance to eventually weigh on the psyche’s on most of the players during the course of 82 games.

I like Ball Don’t Lie’s prediction of a record of 37-45 which precludes Tracy making it back at some point.  This team will not have a chance on sniffing the playoffs unless Tracy McGrady shows a return to All-Star form in the majority of this season’s games.  Or I guess a young player like Aaron Brooks could try and don some wings and a halo too.

With Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, and to some extent Trevor Ariza getting all the headlines in Houston, there is one player nobody is talking about: Carl Landry. And people probably should be talking about him as he is poised for a breakout season in 2009.

Landry has had some brief moments in the spotlight during his two years playing for the Rockets. He’s had 22 point games and he’s even pulled down eleven boards in a game. Hell, he’s even taken a bullet for the team.

But now, with Yao Ming down and out for the entire 2009-10 season, there is suddenly a 33 minute hole in the Rockets’ rotation at center. Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes should both see a boost of minutes, as they were the other two Rockets to log significant minutes at the five last season.

With Scola and Hayes playing primarily at the five, Landry should see a significant spike in minutes holding down the power forward position for the Rockets next season . For reference, he averaged 21.3 minutes per game last season. Next season, Landry looks poised to earn about 30 minutes a game, with David Andersen and Joey Dorsey picking up the remainder of the minutes at the four and five.

per-36 minute statistics from last season were nice with Landry averaging 15.7 points on .574/.813 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.4 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.7 turnovers. If you factor in some slight gains due to improvement entering his third season in the NBA, and Landry’s promise becomes quite clear.

For certain fantasy teams, Landry is a perfect fit. For teams looking to beef up their field goal percentage without having to sacrifice free throw percentage should look no further than Landry. In fact, Landry was one of ten players last season to average .500+ field goal percentage and .800+ free throw percentage (restricted to players who logged more than 1000 minutes). He also provides rebounds, points and a little bit of defensive category production as well.

On top of everything, Landry can be had very late, including the last round of all standard size leagues. Landry’s Buser Sport’s average draft position is 160 and his Yahoo! O-Rank is nearly identical at 161st overall. He is almost a sure bet to outproduce his average draft position in the 13th round of most drafts.

In Landry, we have the especially rare convergence of a few factors to create a development sleeper and an injury sleeper.

The development sleepers are sleepers in their purest form. Development sleepers are guys who improve based upon their own skills, athleticism and acclimation to professional basketball. Generally, development sleepers make the leap from below-average to above-average in their first three seasons in the league, although there are outliers who make the leap much later (Hedo Turkoglu for example).

Possible development sleepers are around every season and this season is no exception. Guys like Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert are all possible development sleepers for next season. These guys are all being drafted higher than their production from the 2008-09 season would warrant. This is largely based on expectations that these players have will take steps forward in their fantasy production next season.

…

Injury sleepers are when an injury occurs to a starter ahead of the potential injury sleeper (bench player) on the depth chart. Thus, the player moves ahead and experiences a sudden and protracted boost in minutes, often resulting in a surge for that player’s fantasy value as well. As we all know, the allocation of minutes is a strong factor in determining fantasy value. Last season, Paul Millsap was a perfect example of an injury sleeper, as he gained fantasy value when Carlos Boozer went down with a knee injury. The other thing to note is that, unlike development sleepers, an injury sleeper is often a temporary sleeper. When the injured player returns to the court, the injury sleeper usually returns to his bench role with reduced minutes and reduced fantasy production.

Source: Fantasy Basketball Cafe

Why is this situation so rare?

Offseason injuries that sideline a starter are rare indeed. When an offseason injury occurs that sidelines a guy for the entire season, that is even more rare. When said injury opens up minutes for a potential development sleeper, that is even rarer.

Even more shockingly, all but the most saavy of fantasy managers have not seemed to notice the immense opportunity. Landry truly is a sleeper in the most traditional sense; he is a player that is flying well under the radar while maintaining great potential to out produce his draft position.

Don’t sleep on the LandRover.

After years of humiliating first round playoff losses, the Houston Rockets finally made it to the Western Conference semifinals where they took the Lakers to seven games. The team and its fans had reason to be optimistic about heading into next season.

The Rockets had become a venerable force in the Western Conference and they shook off the “they can’t get out of the first round” stigma. It seemed as though their strategy had worked. They refused to submit to rebuilding in years past and continued to built around a core of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. But now it appears they may be without their All-Star center for an extended period of time.

The Rockets have privately told league peers it could be a full season before Yao might be able to return to basketball. Multiple league executives, officials close to Yao and two doctors with knowledge of the diagnoses are describing a troubling re-fracture of his navicular bone. Three pins were inserted a year ago, but the foot cracked in the playoffs and isn’t healing.

Source: Yahoo! Sports

This is devastating news for the Rockets, who view Yao as the face of the franchise and the main building block with which they planned to move forward. Now it seems highly possible that Yao may have played his last game in Houston. He simply is not able to stay on the court an entire season. Think about that for a second, and let the signifcance fully set in.

Yao managed to play in 77 games this season after missing a combined 86 games in the previous three seasons. It looked as though he had finally broken his injury curse when he was sidelined with the most recent foot injury during the Lakers playoff series. Now with word that the foot injury isn’t healing and the possibility of Yao missing yet another season, what can the Rockets do?

They have been competitive with Yao out before but this is not a team that can pretend to make a championship push with Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry holding down the front court. Tracy McGrady isn’t the athlete and superstar he once was and the team has already conceded that he is no longer their go-to-guy heading forward. The Rockets have been actively shopping McGrady, whose massive $22 million expiring contract will be attractive to some teams.

Assuming McGrady is at best in his last year in Houston and Yao is out for the 2009-2010 season, the Rockets are in dire straights. They now have to decide if they will continue to wait for Yao’s foot or if they will move in another direction and rid themselves of Ming and all his ailments.

Rebuilding is a logical conclusion. In my opinion it is the only option the Rockets have at this point. Cut your loses and start over. Yao is not the type of player you can expect to ride all the way to a championship. True: he is an extremely gifted 7 foot 6 inch completely dominating force in the paint. He can block shots, grab rebounds, defend and is one of the best free throw shooters on the team.

One minor detail… he is completely made of glass. Those fragile bones in his feet keep on breaking every season because they are under so much stress (7′6″ and 310 pounds). Yao may be great, but his extreme penchant for injuries limits what he can offer the Rockets.

They have Ron Artest (if they can re-sign him), Scola and Aaron Brooks to build around. They have some recent draft picks Chase Budinger and Jermaine Taylor to help offensively. Beyond that, the Rockets really are at square one. For a team that showed so much resilience to the glut of injuries that always seemed to be lurking around the corner, Yao’s most recent one may be the fatal fracture to a team that had so much potential.