Basketball Free For All

Everyone ready for the home stretch?  We’ve got 3 weeks left before most fantasy playoffs begin in Week 22.  However, don’t view this as a time to coast as it could be more important than ever to pay attention to your teams.  Whether you’re fighting to make the playoffs or simply looking to make those final tweaks to bring home a championship, the moves you make now could potentially decide your entire seasons.  So FOCUS! 

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When one door closes, another one opens — or so the saying goes, anyways. With the trading period closed in the NBA, it is time to scour the waiver wire and see if the trades opened up any doors for your fantasy teams. As my distinguished colleague Oleh pointed out in his breakdown of the fantasy fallout from last week’s trades, there is plenty of value to be had as a result of trades, injuries and everything in between.

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Week Eight brought it’s fair share of drama and story lines on the court. On the injury front, a group of players eaither came back from injury early or announced their intention to return from injury early (see below). On the bizarre injury front, Dirk Nowitzki’s elbow had an appointment with five of Carl Landry’s teeth, with Dirk walking away with pieces of Carl’s teeth lodged in his elbow. That injury sounds excruciating for both players, who were both coincidentally having phenomenal seasons.Hopefully these guys make it back from injury quickly and resume their productive ways on the court.

HOUSEKEEPING

Basketball Free For All is looking for a few good men or women to join the crew. Specifically, we are looking for new writers to contribute on a weekly basis. If you read BFFA regularly you should know the skills required: knowledge of statistics, general basketball knowledge, fantasy basketball knowledge, quality writing skills, a willingness to question commonly held views and being awesome in general. If you are interested in inquiring further, shoot me an email at plonden [at] basketballfreeforall.com (obviously replacing [at] with @ before you send the email) and we’ll talk specifics. Also, we would obviously welcome others with unique skills (web skills, programming, statistics, marketing, business, whatever) who are interested in contributing to the Free For All so just inquire if you are interested.

WEEK NINE SCHEDULES

Two Games: CHA, MEM, NJN, NOR, PHI, TOR

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, LAL, MIA, MIL, MIN, NYK, OKC, ORL, POR, SAC, UTA, WAS

Four Games: CLE, HOU, IND, LAC, PHO, SAS

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Joel Przybilla (C – 39%) As a starter, Przybilla has averaged 5.7 points on .500/.625 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.5 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers. His offensive efficiency has nose-dived this season but his defense is just as good if not better than last season. His mass alone will keep him on the court this season so give Ghostface Przybilla a look for blocks and boards.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 26%) If one thing is certain in Philly, it is that Speights is the type of big man that excels in Eddie Jordan’s offensive system. Speights has picked up right where he left off since returning from his MCL injury. Over his past three games, Marreese has posted extremely solid averages of 19.7 points on .468/.682 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 7.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers, effectively crushing the previously burgeoning fantasy value of Samuel Dalembert, who played 14.7 minutes per game during the same span (although foul trouble played a role as well). Your window to sell high on Dally has been effectively closed until he gets moved or an injury to another Sixers big man occurs. The only downside is the Philadelphia only plays two games next week, although it is mitigated by the fact that Speights is an excellent pickup for the long-term.

C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 18%) Over the past two weeks, Watson has been a top fifty player, which has been extremely surprising. The odds are greatly stacked against C.J. being able to produce at such a high level for the remainder of the season, as the Warriors offense is run almost exclusively through Monta Ellis. For evidence, check out Watson’s usage percentage of a mere 14.0 percent compared to Ellis’ 29.4 usage percentage. As a result, Watson’s steals (1.5 per game this season and 2.0 per game over the past two weeks) make up the lion’s share of his fantasy value so give Watson an add if you are looking for a low turnover steal specialist.

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 13%) So far, Casspi has proven to be one of the early surprises of the 2009 NBA Draft for the Sacramento Kings. Based on his recent strong play, Omri has moved into the Kings’ starting lineup and looks to remain there at least until Kevin Martin returns from his wrist injury. For an idea of what his numbers would look like if given extended burn, check his per-36 minute averages of 17.3 points on .513/.577 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 5.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. As the season has progressed, Casspi has also improved each month from the free throw line, meaning his early struggles from the line were probably confidence-related and that we can expect continued improvement over time.

Jose Juan Barea (PG – 12%) In his fourth season in the NBA, Barea is posting career-highs across the board. Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle has noticed, increasing J.J.’s minutes largely at the expense of rookie guard Rodrigue Beaubois, who has the physical tools to carve out a nice role for himself in this league one day. Over the past four games, Barea has averaged 16.3 points on .553/.857 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers per game. Players that are putting up over fifteen points per game don’t wallow on the wire for very long so grab J.J. and hope his hot hand can continue.

WATCH LIST

Jerryd Bayless (PG – 9%) In true Arizonan fashion, Bayless dropped the best line of his short NBA career against the Phoenix Suns last Thursday, while doing his part to push the Suns winless streak on TNT to 17 games. On Thursday, Bayless put up 29 points in a game that ended up being decided by only two points. Without a doubt, he is a big part of why the short-handed Blazers upset the Suns. The following game, Bayless saw his minutes increased to over thirty minutes against Orlando. Most notably, Jerryd played more minutes than Steve Blake. In short, Bayless is on his way to becoming a big time scorer. For reference, check his per-36 minute stats of 21.7 points on .530/.764 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 3.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks and 1.9 turnovers. The one thing that jumps out is that Bayless has poor defensive statistics and subpar threes for a guard. This combination does not bode well for fantasy value, as elite guards usually need to do more than simply score in order to maintain their fantasy value.

Kyle Lowry (PG/SG – 8%) Lowry qualifies for the watch list this week based upon his monster line against the Mavericks on Friday even though he put up a stinker on Saturday. Lowry’s line was so impressive, it bears repeating here to marvel. With Landry out with the aforementioned dental injury, Lowry stepped up and dropped 26 points on .615/.778 percent shooting, 3 threes, 6 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 steals, 1 block and 2 turnovers. If only there were some way to predict when these random epic fantasy lines were going to occur? That, my friends, is the proverbial fantasy holy grail, the pursuit of which is a quixotic mission. Just remember to run to the wire and pickup Lowry if Aaron Brooks ever misses significant time.

Earl Watson (PG – 4%) Watson has moved ahead of T.J. Ford on the Pacers depth chart, stealing the starting point guard honors from Ford on Saturday night. With the Pacers struggling this season and missing franchise player, Danny Granger, lineup shakeups were to be expected. Monitor the situation closely over the next week and move Watson from the watch list to your roster should the upward trend on his minutes continue and he produces in his time on the floor. That second caveat was necessary after Earl’s 3 point, 5 rebound, 5 assist showing on Saturday night. Worst case scenario, the Pacers point guard spot will be a time share with Ford and Watson killing each other’s value.

Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 3%) Over the past few games Wright has finally started to turn his potential into production. Wright has been (incorrectly) picked as a breakout player over the last couple of years but has been derailed by a series of injuries. Recently, however, Wright has finally been putting everything together and has been seeing increasing minutes as a result. Over the past five games, Wright has played 27.8 minutes per game posting averages of 13.2 points on .583/1.00 percent shooting, 1.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.4 turnovers. Wright has been doing two things on the court that really make coaches happy, notably playing active defense and taking care of the ball.

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 26%) Captain Kirk has never been the most efficient scorer on the floor, but he certainly has never had such a terrible shooting season like he has this year. However, Hinrich’s early troubles this season were strongly related to his thumb injury from November and are thus not just a regular shooters’ slump. With the Bulls in desperate need of three point shooting (28th in three point percentage, 30th in both three pointer made and attempted), Hinrich should earn his keep from downtown, as he is a career .377 percent shooter from behind the arc. Don’t expect elite fantasy production from Kirk at this point but more outings similar to his game against the Hawks on Saturday night are on the horizon: 13 points on .556/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 0 turnovers.

C.J. Miles (SG/SF – 3%) Miles has had an up and down season thus far, which started terribly after tearing a ligament in his thumb. While he was out, rookie guard Wesley Matthews stepped up and played well for the Jazz causing speculation that Miles’ starting job was lost for good. However, Miles recently showed up and played an instrumental role for the Jazz in securing a win against the Bobcats on Saturday night. Miles dropped 20 points on .500/.500 percent shooting, 3 threes, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks and 1 turnover. Most notably, Miles topped the 30 minute mark for the first time this season with the undrafted Matthews only seeing seven minutes of game time despite getting the starting nod. With another performance or two like last night’s, Miles will be scooped off the wire in most leagues.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jared Jeffries (SG/SF – 3%) Like Chuck Hayes at the start of this season, Jeffries’ fantasy line is not fashionable but rather purely functional. JJ is a nice player that is essentially a defensive specialist, especially if you are punting points or are already dominant in points and can carry a negative contributer for scoring. As he is being showcased for potential trades, Jeffries has logged 33.3 minutes per game over the past two weeks and has averaged 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks over the same span. Again, Jared should only be added in deep leagues that are looking to beef up the defensive categories.

Goran Dragic (PG/SG – 1%) Second year Slovenian point guard Goran Dragic looks to finally be getting comfortable playing basketball at the NBA level. In the past week, Dragic played the best basketball of his career against the Suns’ arch-nemesis (setting a career high 18 points against the team that drafted him), the San Antonio Spurs. Most impressively, Dragic played tough defense holding Spurs shooting guard Manu Ginobili to only seven points while also visibly frustrating him. With the Suns making a long home stand and being the only undefeated team at home in the NBA, Dragic should see increased burn during both close games and garbage time.

Serge Ibaka (C – 1%) Ibaka’s minutes are trending upward as this season progresses, as he has really impressed Coach Scott Brooks with his hustle when given playing time. Over the past couple of games, Ibaka has been given nearly 23 minutes per game and has responded with a decent fantasy line of 11 points on .786/0.00 percent shooting (on zero free throw attempts), 0.0 threes, 6.5 rebounds, 0.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Ibaka is largely specialized in the big man categories but could really pile up the blocks if given enough PT (2.6 blocks per 36 minutes). For deep dynasty leagues, Ibaka is a player that should probably be rostered at this point based upon his potential alone.

Jonathan Bender (SF/PF – 0%) Taken fifth overall out of high school in the 1999 NBA Draft, Bender has widely been recognized as one of the biggest draft busts in the NBA as knee injuries cut his career short. Nearly four years later, Bender is back and is playing for the New York Knicks. In his first game back in the NBA, Bender put up 9 points on .500/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, o steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. With zero percent ownership, Bender is available everywhere and should be monitored to see if he can flourish and make the cut for Coach Mike D’Antoni’s short rotation.

COMING BACK FROM INJURY

Lou Williams (PG/SG – 41%) He’s baaack and way ahead of schedule to boot. In his first game back he played over 23 minutes although admittedly showing his rust on the court. It was reported that Williams lost a few pounds while on his liquid diet (courtesy of Antawn Jamison). Look for Williams to return to the starting unit soon and get back on track with his breakout season. Based upon his early season play, he should not be on a single waiver wire.

Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 39%) TT is targeting a December 26th return to game action after fracturing his arm in a weightlifting accident. He is slated to return to practice today so pay attention to any updated timelines in the next couple of days.

Leandro Barbosa (PG/SG – 53%) Merry Christmas! Barbosa is planning on returning to game action on December 25th against the Clippers, nearly a full month after he severely sprained his ankle against the Raptors. Barbosa was finally starting to string a few solid games together when he went down so look for him to resume his strong play sometime in early January.

Yi Jianlian (PF – 21%) Out since early November with an MCL injury, Yi is slated to return to game action this Wednesday against Minnesota. His retun was delayed a couple of weeks after a vicious Sean Williams elbow during practice that required 50 stitches. Hopefully, the elbow was a blessing in disguise as it kept Jianlian sidelined a bit longer and made sure his MCL injury was fully healed to prevent further injury. Yi is cruising dangerously close to earning the “injury-prone” label, which is stigma that is not easily erased.

STAY THE COURSE

Tyson Chandler – (C – 46%) It’s hard to understate how disappointing Tyson has been this season. His season averages of 6.5 points on .490/.727 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 6.8 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. The jump in turnovers was expected, as he is no longer playing with the game’s best point guard, Chris Paul. However, no one was expecting such a dramatic drop-off in almost every other category. Recently, he pulled down twelve or more rebounds in two of his past three games. After being called out by his teammates for his lack of heart and lack of effort, look for Chandler to respond to the challenge and pickup his subpar play.

Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 53%) Widely touted as a breakout player or sleeper before this season started, New Jersey’s Courtney Lee has had an unusual season playing for the league’s worst team. Don’t give up on this young swingman and expect his season averages of 11.0 points on .381/.810 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.0 turnovers to increase. Lee’s shooting efficiency has suffered greatly from his move from a deep and talented team to a thin and awful team has caused opposing defenses to turn greater attention to forcing him to take bad shots. However, his low turnovers coupled with nice steal numbers have made Lee a decent options for teams that can handle his poor shooting.

Anthony Morrow (SG/SF – 62%) One of the league’s best pure shooters has suddenly lost his stroke. Since missing time for a funeral, A-Mo has gone absolutely frigid from the field. On the season, he is shooting a respectable .487 from the field,  a scorching .462 from downtown and an elite .900 from the free throw line. Morrow has serious .500/.400/.900 potential. Over the past six games, however, Anthony has shot a miserable .268/.292/1.00. Hey, at least his free throws are still falling. Being a pure shooter, Morrow will come around doing what he does best: hoisting ‘em at the rim.

CUT LIST

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 12%) Psycho T has proven a lot in his short NBA career. Most importantly, he has proven to the doubters that he will be an effective player at the NBA level one day. However, he has proven that he has not developed the go-to moves necessary to be an efficient scorer in the Association. These moves will come in time, as Hansbrough has proven to be a relentless worker during his tenure at North Carolina and with the Pacers. However, outside of teams that are punting field goal percentage, Tyler’s .372 percent shooting from the field on 8.2 attempts per game is too crippling for widespread roster consideration.

Anderson Varejao (PF/C – 47%) Sideshow Bob’s fantasy value tends to go the way of his defensive production. AV’s real life and fantasy value never has and never will be predicated on his offensive production. Instead, his value comes from boards, blocks and steals. Recently, his rebounds have stayed somewhat stable but his blocks and steals have dried up, crippling his worth to fantasy teams.

MYSTERY MAN

Mario Chalmers (PG – 61%) This week sees another first for the Preview post: the Mystery Man selection. And there is no better player to be the inaugural Mystery Man than Miami’s Mario Chalmers. Heading into this season after a surprisingly strong rookie season that saw Chalmers post top-75 per game value and nearly top-50 cumulative value, Chalmers has disappointed virtually across the board. A sophomore slump, perhaps? Not only has he failed to progress in multiple categories, but he has actually regressed as well, most notably in steals (from 2.0 last season to 1.5 this season), which accounted for the vast majority of Mario’s fantasy value last season. As a result, Chalmers has recently been demoted to the second unit and his play has even caused speculation that Mario is not the point guard of the future for Miami. The next few games and weeks will be pivotal for Chalmer’s fantasy value this season so this is definitely a very interesting situation to monitor. How this position battle between Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo plays out remains a mystery for now.

Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

The big news coming out of Week Six was unequivocally Greg Oden’s latest major injury (fractured left patella), which has most likely put his season to an abrupt end. All fantasy ramifications aside, you have to feel terrible for the young Blazer and hope he can overcome this latest setback and salvage his promising career. The worst part about the entire situation is that Oden has been playing by far the best basketball of his career when he went down Saturday night. Of course, this once again brings the elephant in the room to the forefront: what if Portland had selected Kevin Durant instead of Oden (there, I said it)? Tough break for both the organization and the fans.

Week Seven Schedules

Four Games: CHI, CLE, DEN, GSW, MIN, NJN, POR, SAS, TOR, UTA

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, DAL, DET, HOU, IND, LAL, MEM, MIL, NOR, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, SAC

Two Games: LAC, MIA, NYK, WAS

Add List

Joel Przybilla (C – 26%) It’s official: Greg Oden legitimately deserves the  “injury-prone big man” label, which does not bode well for his career trajectory. With Oden down and out, it is Vanilla Godzilla time for the foreseeable future. Przybilla provides very specific fantasy help, giving solid value in boards and blocks and modest value in field goal percentage (the impact of his very high percentage is moderated by his low number of attempts) with low turnovers. His career per-36 minute averages are 7.3 points on .555/.557 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 2.7 blocks and 1.7 turnovers so run out and snag him off the wire if you need big man help.

Luke Ridnour (PG/SG – 37%) Luke makes a second consecutive appearance on our add list based upon his extremely strong play recently for the Bucks. Over the past two weeks (eight games), Ridnour has averaged 13.8 points on .518/1.00 percent shooting, 1.1 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers per game. Many managers have avoided Luke until this point because they are worried about how Michael Redd’s return will affect Ridnour’s PT. Those numbers are good for top fifty value so grab him while you can and enjoy the hot streak while it lasts.

C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 7%) It is always dangerous recommending a player who is lives in Nellie’s World and is subject to the Coach’s whims. The X-Factor now is that the Warriors are so short-handed that Nelson can only do so much damage by playing Frankenstein with his rotation. Watson is just starting to hit his stride this season after suffering a strained MCL during the offseason and overcoming the H1N1. Over the past week, he has averaged 15.3 points, .558/.875 percent shooting, 1.5 threes, 4.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Those are some excellent numbers off the wire and are good for 30th in per game value according to Basketball Monster.

Vladimir Radmanovic (SF/PF – 9%) Re-read the above Nellie disclaimer and proceed with caution. Over the past week, Vlad-Rad has also shown enough to warrant a roster spot. As a further incentive, the Warriors play four games next week, which makes Radmanovic a nice pickup for a manager that needs threes, boards and steals. Over the past week, Vladimir averaged 11.8 points on .475/1.00 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. Based on these numbers, Radmanovic deserves a roster space until his next snowboarding accident.

Watch List

Carlos Delfino (SG/SF – 7%) Not sure yet if I’m convinced that Delfino will be worth a roster spot but his recent play lands him on my watch list. Playing almost exclusively at the three this season, Delfino has played well enough to stay out of Coach Scott Skiles’ doghouse. He has regularly seen over 30 minutes per night and has responded with some decent production. Over the past week, Delfino has averaged 12.5 points on .426/.600 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. The biggest threat to Delfino’s playing time (and thus fantasy value) is teammate Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s recent return from a foot injury. Keep an eye on the Bucks’ forward rotation over the next few games for any changes in fantasy values.

Mickael Pietrus (SG/SF – 17%) As a team, the Magic have been rolling lately (seemed to coincide with the return of Rashard Lewis — coincidence? — I think not) and Pietrus is no exception. Over the season, he has averaged right about 30 minutes per game, which is enough minutes to make an impact. He has been inconsistent throughout this season and his career in general but seemed to come into his own during last season’s playoffs. What was most impressive, however, was that Pietrus made his presence known on the defensive end of the floor, which certainly puts him in a good position with Coach Stan Van Gundy. Last week, Air France’s play was particularly strong with averages of 15.3 points on .556/.667 percent shooting, 3.3 threes, 3.o rebounds, 0.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.7 turnovers over the course of three games (33rd in per game value). Did I mention that these three games were against the Knicks (twice) and the Warriors? That reason alone demoted Mickael from the Add List to the Watch List. If he can translate the recent success into solid lines against quality opponents, pick Pietrus up.

Andres Nocioni (SF/PF – 14%) Pretty much everyone, including Sacramento fans, has to be surprised that the Kings’ record has been hovering right around .500 this season. Especially considering the fact that their franchise shooting guard, Kevin Martin, went down for an extended period of time with an injured wrist. The team response to Martin’s injury has been commendable and Andres has played a role in helping Sacramento over-acheive. On the court, Nocioni spreads the floor while providing toughness and the occasional dirty play (every team needs at least a couple of scrappy guys out there). Over the past week, Nocioni has played very well (56th in per game value) putting up 15.3 points on .472/1.00 percent shooting, 3.3 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Players putting up 15 points a night with over three threes per game don’t spend a lot of time on the wire so pick him up now if you need threes from the forward positions.

Delonte West (PG/SG – 18%) – Don’t look now, but Mr. West has had 3 solid games in the last four.  Considering how significant he was to their team last season and Anthony Parker hasn’t been anything more than adequate, Delonte will be given every chance to succeed.  While it’s highly unlikely he’ll garner starter’s minutes, he should be able to put up enough positives in 26-29 minutes for those looking for PG help.

Coming Back From Injury

Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 41%) With the Bulls under-achieving so far this season (although to be fair they have had one of the hardest schedules in the league so far this season), Ty Thomas’ name has been swirling in trade rumors with the Knicks being the most commonly mentioned destination. Regardless of whether he is playing in a Bulls uniform or not, Thomas should hold decent value wherever he lands. If he does end up in New York, Thomas’ value could actually increase playing for Coach Mike D’Antoni in his fast-paced offensive system. With Thomas due back sometime soon, now is the time to pick him up and stash him away on your bench.

Yi Jianlian (PF – 21%) Of all the players taken in the the 2007 NBA Draft, Oden is clearly the most injury-prone player of the bunch. However, Yi is trying his damndest to usurp the most injury-prone-player-taken-in-the-2007-NBA-Draft mantle from Oden. While trying to get back into game shape after spraining his MCL in early November, Yi required 50 stitches in his lip and mouth courtesy of teammate Sean Williams. The silver lining might be that this prevents Jianlian from coming back too early from his MCL injury and buy him a few more days of rest while his mouth heals.

Cut List

Darren Collison (PG/SG – 11%) You’ve got to hand it to the rook — he had a hell of a run with Chris Paul out with a sprained ankle, but all good things must come to an end eventually. For managers that have CP3 and can store dead weight on their roster (roto leagues or H2H leagues with deep benches), Collison is a nice handcuff with Paul, as their fantasy values are more or less inversely proportional to one another’s. Collison proved during that stretch that he has a bright future in this League with performaces such as his 22 point, 11 assist game versus the Hawks or his 18 point, 7 rebound, 8 assist game against the Bucks.

Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 4%) Like teammate Darren Collison, it is about time to cut bait on Thornton and look for more productive fantasy players elsewhere. If Thornton is still on your roster at this point, look for a hotter player (such as C.J. Watson for example) and grab the player with the higher upside going forward. Just make sure and keep an eye on Thornton (and especially his minutes with CP3 back) as he has shown flashes of being a potential big-time scorer in the Association and would certainly benefit from playing alongside a healthy Chris Paul.

Steve Blake (PG/SG – 14%) Recently, Blake has certainly not made a very strong case for himself in his position battle with Andre Miller for Portland’s starting point guard position. Blake has not topped four assists or scored in double figures since November 21. In contrast, Miller scored 24 points on Saturday night in a tough, one point victory over the Houston Rockets (the same game the Blazers lost both Oden and all of their hope for the season). Also, Miller had 18 points and six assists in Portland’s prior game. It is safe to say that Miller has thoroughly outplayed Blake recently and the minute distribution has reflected that fact.

Stay the Course

Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 46%) Owners had to deal with a disappointing week by Ersan as he was in foul trouble for most of the last three games. However, don’t despair! The Bucks are in dire need of his production so they’ll stick with him and eventually he’ll learn to stay on the floor. Besides, there can’t be too many more potentially appealing options on the waiver wire that can fill up most of the stat sheet. His top-100 ranking for the season and averages of 11.3 points on .455/.789 percent shooting, 1.2 threes, 7.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks and 1.2 turnovers merit hanging on to him until he can buck this foul-prone streak.

Jarrett Jack (PG/SG – 19%) Jack has been struggling a bit since the big loss against the Atlanta Hawks (146 to 115 in case you forgot what a serious beat down it was). However, the encouraging sign has been that the minutes have been relatively steady for the other JJ. Even including the three mediocre games, Jack’s averages over the past two weeks haven’t been terrible — they’ve just been relatively pedestrian at 10.1 points on .478/.833 percent shooting, 1.1 threes, 2.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.9 turnovers. The upside is there (especially in the case of a Jose Calderon injury — another nice handcuff possibility) and the minutes are consistent, so ride out Jarrett’s mini-slump. Oh, yeah, and did I mention he has four games in Week Seven?

Deep League Specials

DeJuan Blair (SF/PF – 11%) – Chances are he’s sitting on your waiver wire.  After a monster preseason, he’s been quite uneventful for most of the regular season.  However, it seems he might be looking at a boost in minutes.  Barring last game due to a ton of early foul trouble, his minutes have been trending upwards.  In the Spurs recent loss to the Celtics, he was one of the lone bright spots.  Antonio McDyess, on the other hand, has been seemingly M-I-A. The upside is clearly there, as evidenced by his per-36 minute averages of 15.7 points on .607/.450 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.4 blocks and 2.8 turnovers. If you are looking for double-double potential off the wire, look no further the D. Blair.

Nick Collison (PF/C – 5%) – Nick appears to finally be healthy and ready to contribute in his typical fashion again.  However, some lucky owners may get rewarded even more as Nenad Krstic’s health is unknown at this point.  Nenad had been suffering from a sore Achilles, but several games ago, he twisted his ankle.  In that particular game against Philadelphia, Nick garnered 18 points (on 8/9 FG’s and 2/2 FT’s), 7 rebounds with 1 steal/block.  Last game against the Celtics, many prospective owners were probably turned off as he didn’t do anything in 11 lousy minutes.  However, I suggest you consider that an aberration.  Nenad will probably be given some time to get his ankle right so go ahead and cash in on Collison.