Basketball Free For All

The All Star break is always a good time to start reviewing and analyzing the current season, as we are starting to acquire large enough of a sample size to begin to make decent judgments. With the season over 60 percent complete, the Coach of the Year (COTY) race is starting to take shape, with two coaches in particular rising above the rest of the pack: Atlanta’s Mike Woodson and Oklahoma City’s Scott Brooks. However, this season there are a decent number of qualified coaches so we’ll break down the other hopefuls and also examine the COTY’s recent (and in some ways dubious) history to get a full picture of this season’s race.

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I must admit, originally this post was intended to analyze Allen Iverson playing in Memphis and whether this was a good or bad thing (take your pick), in both real life and in fantasy basketball. But things often change quickly in the basketball world (if you want proof just ask Byron Scott)  and the Answer has left us with nothing but questions.

Take a look at the Grizzlies’ recent track record.

The Memphis Grizzlies haven’t been to the playoffs in two years – not even close – and in fact, how their last winning season (2006) coincidentally was the last time they made the NBA’s second season. There is also the fact that the Grizzlies have turned over every single player from that last playoff roster (although I’m sure they managed to save a little money by recycling those items with the last name “Gasol” on them).

So with a group of fresh new faces and young talent, the Memphis Grizzlies, along with countless fantasy managers, looked forward to a bright future in a new season. This year was the year they would showcase up-and-coming talent such as Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, and O.J. Mayo. This year was going to be the year they would make a run at the playoffs.

But a funny thing happened to Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley at the end of last season – he made a stop by his accountant’s office and saw the books. And he wasn’t happy.

The Grizzlies weren’t making money. And how does an NBA franchise go about making money in this day and age? It sells tickets. But the Grizzlies finished 29th out of 30 teams in league attendance for the 2008-09 season, both in averages and totals. No tickets – no money. Simple formula. And Heisley knew it all too well.

So, he immediately decided to become one of a dozen NBA owners who are currently tapped into a $200 million dollar line of credit offered up by the NBA (yes…that’s 200, followed by six zeros). His franchise would receive anywhere between $13 to $20 million dollars to use in any way he saw fit – no limitations, no special clauses. However he wanted.

Now he had the cash and the desire to go looking for a player – someone to help bolster this roster, to push it over the top. Heisley goes out and signs Zach Randolph, a high usage guy (28.2 percent, which is good for ninth overall among active players), but a high caliber player nonetheless.

“Ah,” thought the masses, “now he’s done. He’s found the combination he was looking for – a high quality player, with a young, up-and-coming supporting cast. Now he’s primed to make a run back into the playoffs.”

But Heisley had something else in mind. Heisley still had that account ledger burned into his memory. Heisley still felt he needed to sell tickets. And no matter how you spin it, Zach Randolph is not a high marketable ticket-selling commodity. “Z-Bo” doesn’t put warm bodies in the seats with his charm and debonair.

Enter AI.

Remember, Iverson himself said in a recent interview with ESPN, that he wasn’t happy coming off the bench in Detroit. In fact, he was very specific about it:

Allen Iverson calls his one season in Detroit the “worst year of my career” and claims team officials and coach Michael Curry “lied” to him about coming off the bench instead of starting.

“They told me, straight up, ‘Allen, we would never disrespect you or your career like that,’ by making me come off the bench,” Iverson said in an interview with ESPN.com Page 2 columnist Scoop Jackson. “That’s what they told me to my face. And after that, I never thought about it again. I just went back to playing. Then, they came to me saying that they felt it would be in the ‘best interest of the team’ if I came off of the bench behind Rip [Richard Hamilton].

“… After that, they told me that if I didn’t come off the bench, the team was going to lie down on [not play with] me. … When he told me that, that’s when I felt that this was the worst career move I’d ever made and it was the worst year of my career.”

Source: ESPN

Flash forward to November 7th of this year:

A frustrated Allen Iverson has left the Memphis Grizzlies and is not expected to return anytime soon, if at all, a source close to the situation told Yahoo! Sports on Saturday.

The Grizzlies granted Iverson a leave of absence to allow him to return to his offseason home in Atlanta. The source said Iverson wants to clear his head and is extremely unhappy about the lack of communication with Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins over his playing time and role with the team.

Source: Yahoo! Sports

Sound familiar? Like, maybe the Grizzlies “lied” to Allen Iverson about potentially starting him in Memphis?

Think about it – Iverson himself has never changed his story. He’s never changed the perception he has of himself as a starter. Compare what he said in his ESPN interview to what he said later in the Yahoo! Sports article:

“I’m not a reserve basketball player,” Iverson said. “I’ve never been a reserve all my life and I’m not going to start looking at myself as a reserve.”

Source: Yahoo! Sports

As high and mighty as we may all want to be when talking about Allen Iverson, the fact of the matter is he’s never passed himself off as something he’s not – a role player, a “sixth man”, a “glue guy”. He’s never flip-flopped, saying one thing and doing another. And as conceited as he sounds, he has never once indicated that he didn’t mind not starting.

And now, he’s extremely frustrated that he’s not getting what he wants.

Spoiled? Yes. Conceited? Quite possibly.But you know what? He may be right.

There’s that signpost up ahead – yes, we’re crossing into The Twilight Zone.

It wasn’t Iverson who went to the Grizzlies looking desperately for a job. It wasn’t Iverson who felt he needed to be in Memphis to resurrect his career. It wasn’t Iverson looking for one last opportunity to get into the playoffs, when even the snowball had a better chance in hell. It wasn’t Iverson who felt he needed to sell tickets.

No tickets – no money. Simple formula.

This recent chain of events in Allen Iverson’s “saga” should surprise no one. It certainly doesn’t surprise him. He feels written off by most of the media anyway. Posts and news flashes had him contemplating retirement and walking away from the game for good the day he left the Grizzlies for Atlanta!

But who wouldn’t walk away? After being “lied” to, what now seems to be a second time? After being used as a gimmick to simply boost ticket sales for a team that has been losing money since 2001? A team who might break even this year?

I dare say that Allen Iverson may actually be doing the right thing in walking away from the Grizzlies, and possibly the NBA. He’s standing up for something. He’s making a statement.

But it’s not a statement for egotistical, self-centered, spoiled brats to say they’re right, and we’re all wrong. It’s not a message that being conceited is good, while showing humbleness is not.

It’s a statement about the truth. And it’s a truth that has been laid out there since day one – since the first time Allen Iverson stepped onto that floor in Philadelphia – since his roller coaster days in Denver – since “the worst time of his career” in Detroit. And now, during his short stint with the Grizzlies.

“I’m not a reserve basketball player,” Iverson said. “I’ve never been a reserve all my life and I’m not going to start looking at myself as a reserve.”

We can sit here all day and debate Allen Iverson’s character with regards to that statement. But the fact is, it’s the truth! And it’s a truth that nobody seems interested in reporting – Not Yahoo! Sports, not ESPN, and certainly not Heisley and the Memphis Grizzlies.

So dear reader, since you now know the entire set of circumstances that caused events to play out the way they did, does it change your perception of the situation? It shouldn’t change your perception of Allen Iverson the person – even I have a few choice, colorful metaphors with regards to AI, which could easily get me in trouble with my editor while testing the boundaries of free speech.

But who is to blame here? Who is really to blame? Allen Iverson? A man who has worn his ego like a badge his entire career, never once trying to hide the fact – or Heisley and the Memphis Grizzlies, for trying to be something they just aren’t – a suitable fit for a player the likes of Allen Iverson.

And while you read, and re-read, and fact check, and do your own research and digging in order to come to your own conclusion, the question will remain: is this the end for Allen Iverson?

At this point, only he knows. He is, after all, The Answer.

For those of you who think Emeka Okafor will be the only new significant contributor for the New Orleans Hornets this season, think again!  Joining the big man in the middle in the starting lineup will be Julian Wright.  With the team in desperate need of some youthful athleticism, he is poised to have a nice breakout in 2009-10.

Julian’s first two years in the NBA were pretty uneventful as he mainly participated in garbage time.  However, some of you may remember towards the end of his rookie year, he showed some glimpses of his potential.  In particular, during the 4th game of the playoffs against Dallas, Julian came into the game and helped deflate the Mavericks momentum with his energy and hustle.  The Hornets went on to finish off Dallas and then almost knocked off the Spurs.

Subsequently, last year, many Hornets fans expected to see Wright emerge as a major cog in the rotation.  Sadly, it didn’t happen as the wrath of young player hater Byron Scott buried him on the bench.  Many fans expressed their concern over the course of the 2008-09 campaign and pointed to losing young promising talent like J.R. Smith and Brandon Bass.  Then, somewhat surprisingly, rumors started circulating that Wright was going to become a starter this upcoming season, and at the start of training camp, it became official:

“Right now Julian is the starting three, ” Scott said. “It’s his position to lose. He’s comfortable and he has a lot of confidence in himself. I think he knows we have a lot of confidence in him.”

Source:  Nola.com

So why the sudden turn around Byron?  Have a change of heart?

I seriously doubt it as I think the issue was two-fold.  First, a lot of it boiled down to hard economics.  The Hornets were stuck between a rock and hard place this offseason as they needed to get better but were well over the salary cap.  Why else would they deal Tyson Chandler (a CP3 favorite), Rasual Butler (for a 2nd round pick) and Antonio Daniels (decent veteran backup PG)?

Second, they had just gone through a season in which the immovable Peja Stojakovic wasn’t physically 100% for the majority of the season.  Consequently, the only obvious solution was to play him less minutes in order to help maintain his effectiveness.

So now the Hornets have to fill both the starting SG and SF positions.  One look at the remaining roster and you’ll see why the Hornets appear to have the “wright change of heart.”  Besides our sleeper candidate, they could have gone with Devin Brown (do you really need an explanation), James Posey (easily his best role is off the bench) and Morris Peterson (someone not a rookie needs to play SG).  It’s no surprise why the Hornets have a ton of confidence in the youngster.

Good thing for fantasy owners is this kid has some game.  Despite not having solid support his first two seasons, his career per-36  minute averages are 11.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.0 turnovers, 1.6 steals and .8 blocks.  His field goal percentage is a hefty 49.4%.  His FT shooting and 3 point contributions are dismal but let’s not completely write them off considering he still is young enough to improve upon them.

The biggest question will be whether the aforementioned line serves either as a baseline or a ceiling.  In the past, the Hornets have made a mistake of treating Wright like a number of their other wings – a shooter with an experienced IQ.  Guess what – he’s NOT that type of player.

Instead, think Gerald Wallace – a high-riser with amazing all around athleticism and excellent length (6′8”) and wingspan (7′1”).  I believe that the Hornets will finally realize his strengths as they can’t bury their heads in the sand anymore.  They’ll have to rely on his above the rim game with Tyson in Charlotte, his excellent rebounding numbers for a wingman and very good vision to hit a number of excellent Hornet spot up shooters.  When you couple this opportunity with what many scouts consider a good work ethic, you can see why Wright has all the makings of a special sleeper.

When the Oklahoma City Thunder rescinded the deal they had orchestrated to acquire Tyson Chandler due to a nasty case of turf toe, it seemed almost laughable. Now, it turns out the joke was on the New Orleans Hornets. With basically no depth in the middle and little salary cap flexibility, the Hornets’ fate next season is tied to Chandler and his left foot.

In a press release, the team reports Chandler had a procedure performed on his left ankle to relieve inflammation. In addition, he also had a procedure done on his left toe to improve function. Both procedures were performed in New York City.

Posey had a corrective procedure performed on his right knee in Miami.

The Hornets report that both players will be fully recovered prior to training camp. But that fact that they are rehabbing significant injuries means New Orleans would have a hard time trading either player in any attempts to shake up their roster after a disappointing 2008-09 season.

Source: New Orleans Hornets, May 26, 2009

Scott also added that surgery revealed center Tyson Chandler’s injured ankle was worse than thought, and Chandler’s rehabilitation could take four months, close to the beginning of training camp in October.

Source: The Times-Picayune, June 5, 2009

The fact that Hornets head coach Byron Scott admitted the severity of Chandler’s injury is important for a few reasons. First, it means that Chandler is damaged goods and will most likely not be traded until he returns to the court and proves that he can stay healthy. This has major implications for the Hornets’ salary situation, as it is widely reported that they are in a very difficult fiscal financial straits and are actively trying to shed salary by any means necessary short of getting rid of All Star floor general Chris Paul.

Second, Chandler most likely aggravated his ankle and toe injury in trying to rush back and help New Orleans advance in the playoffs last season. Whether it was his own desire to help his team advance or due to pressure from the front office, Chandler clearly should not have been trying to play. The aforementioned lack of depth at the center position essentially doomed the Hornets’ playoff hopes without a healthy Chandler. When your choice for starting center is between Sean Marks, Hilton Armstrong or Melvin Ely, you are definitely in deep shit.

Without salary flexibility to sign a solid backup center, the fate of the Hornets franchise is tied to the health of Chandler’s feet and ankles and it appears that their desire to win last season meant that they were irresponsible in how the handled his injury.

But what about Chandler’s fantasy value for next season?

Chandler’s fantasy value season is certainly hard to gauge at this point but a few things are clear when you look at the numbers. There are certain players who are much better in real life than they are in fantasy basketball. Tyson is one of these players. There are also other players who will be drafted higher than they should merely based upon name recognition alone. Tyson is also one of these players.

Look at his average value last season compared to where he was drafted. In 2008-09, Chandler’s average draft position was 70th overall in Yahoo! fantasy basketball leagues. According to Basketball Monster’s Player Rankings, Chandler’s value last season wasn’t even close to that ADP.

Per game, 2008-09 = 181st
Cumulative, 2008-09 = 233rd

2008-09 averages: 8.8 points on 56.5/57.9 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.7 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 1.6 turnovers.

Obviously, Chandler was hobbled by injury last season and his value took a very serious hit as a result. What about Chandler’s per game and cumulative rankings from the previous season (2007-08)? These averages and rankings were indicative of the fantasy production and value managers expected to get from drafting Chandler. They also give a better impression of what Chandler’s true fantasy value is.

Per game, 2007-08 = 83rd
Cumulative, 2007-08 = 62nd

2007-08 averages: 11.8 points on 62.3/59.3 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.7 turnovers.

So an ADP of 70th overall seems reasonable based upon his 2007-08 numbers, right?

Wrong.

In my opinion, Chandler’s 2007-08 fantasy value represents his ceiling. As a player with limited offensive skills, Chandler’s scoring probably will not advance significantly beyond his 2007-08 statistics. Most of his points where created by Chris Paul or off of putbacks anyways, so a trade to virtually any other team would negatively affect his fantasy value as well. As far as his other stats, he most likely was at or near his ceiling as well. His field goal percentage has little or no room for improvement. He could probably gain more blocks (Dwyane Wade averaged more blocks than Chandler last season) and I don’t really understand why he doesn’t. Again, more reason to believe that Chandler will not exceed his 2007-08 numbers and fantasy value.

Drafting a player close to or at their fantasy ceiling is not a formula for success. The idea is to draft players well below their ceiling so that they outperform their draft position by a wide margin (the most common example of this is trying to identify and draft sleepers). Do yourself a favor next season and steer clear of drafting Chandler, as he is most likely to be taken at or above his ceiling. You are better off to draft a mid-level center who has less injury concerns and more of that ever-elusive upside (Al Horfod for example).