Golden State Warriors fans had to be displeased watching Brandon Jennings take the League by storm right out of the gates this season knowing that their team passed him up to draft another promising young guard. However, they now understand why, as Stephen Curryhas been playing at an incredibly high level amidst incredible adversity. Over the past month, Curry has posted first round value while averaging 19.5 points on .484/.879 percent shooting, 2.4 threes, 4.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.6 turnovers. Congratulations if you drafted Curry or snagged him off the wire early on in the season but this kid definitely deserves to be recognized for his outstanding play as of late.
Before we get to the good stuff, I just wanted to mention that we’ve experienced some trouble on the website as hackers thought we were an enviable target. We have to assume they were unhappy with Plonden’s advice, but regardless, we lost Deebo’s post/comments and I’ve had to redo this week’s preview (that’s why it was late). Regardless, lesson to be learned – BACK UP everything you do somewhere!
Against all odds, it appears the Memphis Grizzlies are no longer one of the worst teams in basketball this season. Wednesday’s overtime victory against the Cleveland Cavaliers showed exactly how far this young team has progressed since last year. As evidenced by his performance against the Cavs, Zach Randolph (34 points on .526/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three on 1.00 percent shooting, 14 rebounds including 7 offensive boards, 2 assists, 4 steals, 1 blocks and 1 turnover) has emerged as one the Grizzlies’ primary weapons and leaders on the court.
Gulp.
Anyone who watches basketball knows that over the years, Randolph has accumulated quite a rap sheet from his off the court antics. Shoplifting, battery, underage drinking, fighting with teammates, driving while under the influence of marijuana, reckless driving, etc. On the court, Zandolph has also built up a solid resume of selfish play and boneheaded mistakes that has caused him to bounce around since the Jailblazers era. He is a lock for 20 and 10 almost every night but his quest to “get his” has often come at the expense of wins for his teams.
Exhibit A: Worst. Possession. Ever.
On young teams, veteran leadership is crucial to team success. At 28 years of age on one of the younges teams in the league, Randolph has to be considered a veteran leader, for better or worse. Take a look at the ages of the other starters for Memphis: Mike Conley (22), O.J. Mayo (22), Rudy Gay (23) and Marc Gasol (25). In addition, the rotation also includes two rookies in DeMarre Carroll(23) and Hasheem Thabeet (22), second-year project center Hamed Haddadi (24) and fourth year point guard Marcus Williams (24). The only other main rotation player older than Randolph is Jamaal Tinsley (31) who also comes with his own set of on and off the court baggage.
When a front office takes such a young and promising roster and makes Randolph the primary veteran leader on the floor and in the locker room, it raises more than a few eyebrows. Most people (myself included) expected an absolute train wreck from day one. In reality, just the opposite has occurred. The Grizz so far have improved their winning percentage from last season (.293 in 2008-09 compared to .429 this season). They’ve managed to win eight out of their last twelve games including wins over quality opponents such as Cleveland, Dallas and Portland.
But why should we think Randolph is a major reason for the Grizzlies’ success this season?
First, the Grizzlies have had a relatively stable roster since last season with Z-Bo being the main addition. The Grizzlies added a couple of rotation rookies via the draft this offseason, but certainly not immediate impact players, like Tyreke Evansor Brandon Jennings. The Grizzlies also dabbled in free agency, including Jamaal Tinsley and Allen Iverson(spectacular fail), and trades (Z-Bo). But Memphis’ main core was largely intact. Last season, the combination of Mayo, Gay, Gasol, Conley, Darrell Arthur and Haddadi accounted for 64 percent of Memphis’ minutes. This season, that same crew is responsible for 58 percent of the Grizz’s minutes, with the difference being Arthur’s 7 percent out of the rotation due to injury. Randolph represents the single biggest addition this season and has logged 15 percent of the team’s minutes.
Second, there has been a strong correlation between how Randolph performs and whether the Grizzlies win. It seems that every team has at least one “barometer” player that they depend on to play well in order to win basketball games. For example, for the Suns it is Jason Richardson; for the Thunder it is Jeff Green. For the Grizzlies this season, it has been Zach. In the ten games in which Randolph has tallied twenty or more points, Memphis is 7-3. Clearly there is some anecdotal evidence supporting the claim that Randolph is a major reason for why the Grizzlies have improved this season.
So what does Randolph bring to the table and has his game changed this season?
Randolph brings a legitimate scoring threat from the four position, which the Grizzlies sorely lacked last season. It is also important to note that Z-Bo can create his own shot in iso situations, which again Memphis lacked from it’s big men ranks. About half of his shot attempts are jump shots and half are close (at the rim and tip-ins). His close attempts are largely a result of his excellent work on the offensive glass (ZR currently ranks first in total offensive rebounds and fourth in offensive rebound percentage). He also ranks among the league leaders in field goals (12th), field goal attempts (19th), total rebounds (8th), points (20th), rebounds per game (10th), PER (17th) and total rebound percentage (15th). Zach is clearly an asset on the offensive side of the floor, although it should be noted that he has ranked among the league’s worst outlet passers when it comes to igniting the fast break.
Zach’s liabilities are exposed on the defensive end of the floor. This season, the Grizzlies have allowed opponents to score 1.5 more points when Randolph is on the floor than when he sits. In addition, he doesn’t really do anything exceptionally on the defensive end. He doesn’t steal the ball (0.7 steals per game, career), he doesn’t block shots (0.3 blocks per game, career) and he doesn’t draw many charges (0.05 charge rate; for reference Steve Nashhas a charge rate of 0.50). One of his positives on the defensive end of the floor is that Z-Bo rarely fouls (2.4 per game over his career). It is clear that Memphis did not bring Randolph in to be a defensive game-changer.
This season, there have been some noticeable changes to Randolph’s game. His usage has dropped considerably from his career average of 28.1 percent to 23.7 percent this season, which represents his lowest usage since 2002-03. Most surprisingly, he has accepted this lower usage rate gracefully which has no doubt contributed to better team chemistry on and off the court. His shot selection has also experienced minor changes; most notably he has cut down on three point attempts (down to 0.2 per game this season from 1.9 last season) with positive effects on his field goal percentage.
It is also interesting to note that his field goal percentage is over .500 on the season for the first time since 2002-03, the same season in which he saw his lowest usage percentage. This combination of lower usage and less three point attempts has allowed Randolph to score more efficiently this season, which is always a good thing. These two trends can most likely be attributed to the influence of Coach Lionel Hollins as it is doubtful that Zach would make these changes on his own. The result has been a net positive for Zach and the young Grizz squad.
But what about team success? We’ve always known Randolph could ‘get his’ but is it leading to more wins this season?
To evaluate team success, Dean Oliver provided us with a simple and powerful means of breaking down offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in his seminal book on advanced basketball statistics, Basketball on Paper. If you haven’t read Dean’s book, I highly recommend it, as he is largely responsible for kicking advanced basketball metrics into high gear. The Four Factors Oliver came up with to explain team success (or lack thereof) can loosely be thought of as shooting (eFG%), turnovers (TOV%), rebounding (ORB%) and free throws (FT/FGA). Oliver used these simple categories to analyze teams on both the offensive and defensive end of the floor.
Let’s examine Memphis’ Offensive Four Factors from last season and compare them to this season.
On offense, it appears that Randolph did help make the Grizzlies better. In particular his .505 effective field goal percentage (on 15.1 attempts) has helped provide modest increases in Memphis’ team effective field goal percentage. Z-Bo has had the biggest effect on the offensive glass, as we would expect from his league leading numbers in offensive rebounding. However, Memphis leaping to the number one spot in the league from 20th overall last season is what is really impressive. Obviously, Randolph is not solely responsible for the increase (Marc Gasol?) but he is no doubt a key player in these two improvements to the Grizzlies’ offensive efficiency.
Thus, the argument that Randolph has helped the Grizzlies on the offensive end appears to be backed up by the offensive efficiency numbers. Now take a look at the Defensive Four Factors for Memphis.
2009-10 Defensive Four Factors
eFG%: .531 (29th, same)
TOV%: .129 (24th, MUCH WORSE)
ORB%: .267 (13th, same)
FT/FGA: .201 (5th, MUCH BETTER)
On the defensive end, it is more of a mixed bag for the Grizz. On the positive side, Memphis has been better about not fouling on defense. As mentioned earlier, Randolph does not foul very much, which has had a positive effect on the team as a whole. He is most likely only partly responsible for this improvement but you can probably also credit the progression of the young Grizzlies players in general. Learning how to play defense in the NBA without fouling takes experience; simple as that. They area in which the Grizzlies regressed defensively this season is in forcing turnovers, something which Randolph does not do very well at all. Randolph is most likely partly culpable as he doesn’t steal the ball, take charges or force defenders into making bad passes.
Some concluding thoughts.
It appears that this season, Z-Bo’s personal success is finally starting to translate into more team wins. Randolph’s skills fill a need for the Grizz; they needed a guy that can create his own shot and clean up the offensive glass. In the end, it appears that the gains on the offensive ends have outweighed the losses on the defensive end. With Gasol and Randolph beasting it for the young Grizzlies squad, maybe Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace might be a bit savvier than most people have given him credit for?
Legends are born the same way fortunes are made in basketball: through clutch late game heroics. Among active NBA players, Hedo Turkoglu has a reputation for being a late game assassin who will take and make big shots. After all, his nickname is the Michael Jordan of Turkey as a homage to the League’s undisputed king of clutch.
Since winning the Most Improved Player Award for the 2007-08 season, Turk’s stock has risen steadily, culminating in last season’s deep post-season run complete with an NBA Finals appearance. Along the way, Hedo has steadily become known for being a guy that can be relied upon to hit the big shot.
Shots like that game winner against the Celtics last season stick in our collective memory banks further reinforcing Turk’s mythical clutch status. They also helped Hedo get a nice payday from the Toronto Raptors, who paid a premium (over $50 million over five years) to obtain the six-foot-ten forward’s services.
Take a look at the following quote that was taken from a post from Hoop Doctors, as it is fairly representative of Hedo’s Turk perceived status as a clutch shooter. The post lists the NBA’s most clutch shooters and has Turk ranked fifth overall, ahead of truly clutch players such as Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony (neither of which make the list’s top fifteen clutch shooters).
Last season, Turk probably hit more clutch shots than anyone, but with a new home and a new team this season, it will be interesting if he still gets those same opportunities to be a game-saver. In the ’09 playoffs, Turkoglu showed he understands the moment by increasing his free throw, field goal, and 3-point percentages.
With that in mind, let’s first examine Turk’s shooting efficiency numbers.
Hedo’s shooting statistics are important because clutch shooting doesn’t only occur in the fourth quarter when the game is on the line. On the contrary, there are a number of important moments throughout a game that can be considered clutch. Coming out of a timeout in a must-score scenario involves clutch play whether in the first quarter of fourth. In fact, considering how precious each and every possession is in a basketball game, each play is rather significant and affects the outcome of the game.
So what do Hedo’s shooting statistics tell us about Hedo the shooter?
A lot actually.
In general, Hedo is not an elite shooter, no matter how you slice and dice the numbers. Looking at the raw shooting statistics, Turk is actually a below average shooter from the field, shooting .439 from the field this season this season and .413 last season. From deep, Turk is a fairly average shooter relative to all players that play over 30 minutes a game, shooting .398 this season and .356 last season. The raw numbers don’t look so hot but couldn’t that be a function of Hedo taking a large number of threes (4.6 three point attempts this season and 4.9 attempts in 2008-09)?
To control for three point attempts when considering shooting efficiency, consider effective field goal percentage. Effective field goal percentage compensates three pointers by weighting them according to their value (1.5 times a normal field goal). This season, Turk’s effective field goal percentage is slightly higher than the league average for players playing over 30 minutes a night (.523 versus average of .501). Last season, Turk was slightly below average (.478 versus an average of .506). Nothing mind blowing here and Hedo can probably be considered an average shooter amongst NBA starters.
If you divide the NBA shooters loosely into tiers, Turkoglu would not qualify for elite status. For comparison’s sake, let’s take a look at two of the league’s leading shooters this season to have a benchmark for what elite shooting statistics look like. When talking about great shooters, there is no better poster child than two time MVP Steve Nash. The Canadian Kid’s raw shooting statistics this season are .529/.431/.942 percent shooting. He is on track to join the extremely selective 50/40/90 club (again). If you consider effective field goal percentage, Nash’s shooting looks even more impressive at .595 percent. For a more recent member to join the top tier of shooters in the NBA this season, look no further than sophomore swingman Anthony Morrow. Morrow’s raw statistics are extremely impressive at .529/.514/.885 percent. His ridiculous three point percentage is the main driver of his equally ludicrous .641 eFG%. Compared to top tier shooters, Turk pales in comparison.
So he may not be an elite shooter but what about Hedo the clutch shooter?
With that in mind, let’s boil Turk’s down to the most clutch of all moments: fourth quarter/overtime scenarios when the game is on the line. Using 82 Games’ clutch criterion, clutch play is furthered narrowed down to the last five minutes when neither team is ahead by more than five points. These plays are the essence of clutch and provide an objective way of sorting fact from fiction.
The data from 82 Games has not been updated for this season so we can only go off of last year’s data. Much of the data is provided in per-48 minute form, meaning the statistics are scaled to 48 minutes of clutch time (as defined earlier). In these 48 minutes of clutch time (based off of a sample size of 134 minutes for Turk), Hedo averaged 26.6 points, which was good for 51st overall. Not terrible, but certainly not elite. More damningly, however, is Turk’s efficiency from the field during clutch time (.357), which was significantly worse than his season average and was good for 156th overall.
Compare these clutch numbers to a player like Lebron James and the contrast is startling. In his 48 minutes (compiled from a sample size of 111 minutes), James averaged 55.9 points on .556 percent shooting from the field, which represents a marked improvement upon his normal field goal percentage of .489. A truly clutch player rises to the occasion and elevates their performance to another level when the game is on the line. Turkoglu’s statistical track record just doesn’t mesh with people’s percetptions of Hedo the fourth quarter assassin.
It appears Hedo’s clutch shooting might have been a bit overblown. How can you explain that?
At risk of getting too philosophical, the problem lies within each of our minds as humans (don’t say I didn’t warn you). People have selective memories where we remember events that coincide with our preexisting beliefs and ignore events that contradict our beliefs. When we see Turk hit a buzzer beater on Sports Center it reinforces the idea that he is a clutch shooter. When we see Hedo miss a clutch three, it goes down as a non-event because it doesn’t gel with our preexisting perception that Turk is a clutch shooter.
The line between success and setback blurred again for Turkoglu, who has developed into a clutch shooter for the Magic. With little time left in the game, Turkoglu has come up big for the Magic. His résumé includes a game-winning shot in the first round against the Philadelphia 76ers and several game-winners the past two regular seasons.
On Sunday Turkoglu delivered everything but the win.
“I saw an opening and threw it up,” Turkoglu said of his inbounds floater to Lee. “It would have been great for us because we played good.”
In this quote, you’ll notice that the author is paying homage to Turk’s reputation as a clutch shooter in a game that Turk didn’t even hit the game winner. In fact, the final shot wasn’t even put into his hands. Instead, the play was drawn up for Courtney Lee who infamously missed the wide open alley-oop. If Hedo was the clutch shooter as advertised, you can guarantee Coach Van Gundy would have drawn up the final play for Turk to shoot and not pass.
In the end, a lot of the blame for Turk’s inflated reputation as a clutch shooter lies with the media, who glorifies his late-game heroics (event) but ignores his failures (non-event). Once designated clutch, the media picks up the story and runs with it, creating a feedback loop. It parallels the talk from before this season’s draft, which had fans, announcers, coaches, players and everyone in between talking about what a weak draft pool it was. With Brandon Jennings increasingly the next anointed superstar, Tyreke Evans putting the Kings franchise on his back and first pick overall Blake Griffin having not even played a single minute yet this season, it is clear that the draft class of 2009 had bona fide superstars in its midst despite the media writing the entire class off as weak.
Before declaring Turkoglu one of the top five clutch shooters in the NBA based upon glowing accounts in the media, analyze the empirical evidence and make your own informed decision.
Each year, there is always a group of players that start off hotter than the devil’s underwear. Amongst them, there are several guys that really do come out of nowhere. If you’re lucky, you’ve got at least one of them on your roster. Or, perhaps, you’re being offered one of them by an owner looking to sell high. Either way, now is a good time to contemplate what you can expect from them in the future. Playing your cards right can go a long way in determining the rest of your season so we’ll hopefully help breakdown 5 of the largest surprises this early NBA season.
Who hasn’t owned “Smooth” (yeah that’s his nickname) at one time or another? In his best year (2004-05), he averaged 22 points (on 43 FG% and 77 FT%), 1 3ptm, 6.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 2.9 steals. Very nice! Too bad that season has turned out to be an aberration as he’s failed to come close to duplicating those numbers again. No matter though as Larry is once again tempting fantasy owners with a line thus far of 14 points (on 50 FG% and 70 FT%), 1.3 3ptm, 4.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.2 steals. The million dollar question is, can he keep it up?
One thing in Hughes favor though is the pocketbook argument. It has been published by authors like Kevin Stiroh that NBA players performance do spike in contract years. Well, at age 31, Larry is playing for the future so he might be putting up a one last hoorah.
However, I’m definitely on the other side of the fence as he’s got several factors working against him. First, he is a career 41% FG shooter who is known for being as streaky as a Leonid Meteor Shower. He’ll string along a few nice games, then promptly kick your team’s efficiency in the groin. Second, his penchant for injury isn’t a secret to anyone – from ankles to shoulders to wrists. Third, he is playing for the hapless Knicks. D’Antoni will probably continue to experiment with lineups as to maximize wins and playing time for the youngsters.
Conclusion: he’s a perfect sell high candidate so don’t wait too long to attempt to move him before he reverts back to ‘expected form.’
I’d be willing to wager that “La Tanqueta” was the last picked starting Memphis Grizzly in every fantasy league this year. Whoops! He’s made a fool of all of us by putting up averages of 15.2 points (on 61.1 FG% and 74.7 FT%), 11.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.7 blocks. He’s easily been the better Gasol in the family in the earlygoings, but the important question is will it continue?
From my perspective, I don’t see any reason why he won’t. First, have you seen him lately? He lost half a Spaniard – well, not really, but 30 pounds is nothing to scoff at! It is apparent he is moving MUCH better on the court and that added quickness is translating to a solid increase in most statistical categories. Second, playing alongside potent names like OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph has taken all the focus away from him; consequently, he’s been free to roam in the paint and clean up on the glass.
Conclusion: Marc Gasol owner’s should hang onto him unless they receive a very good offer.
“Young money” has started off the season with a bang and simultaneously has many Knick fans headed for the Brooklyn Bridge. This spectacular lefty has posted averages of 25.3 points (on 47.9 FG% and 77.2 FT%), 2.6 3ptm, 4.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 1.0 steals. His unexpected goodness has made the Milwaukee region relevant again as fans all over the country are tuning in to see what he’ll do next. Unless you were on an expedition to the South Pole, I’m sure you heard about his recent 55 point performance. So amongst all the hoopla, should there be any cause for concern?
Simply put, yes, as his feet have to touch the ground at some point. Coming into the season, he gave every indication his shot was going to work: 43 games in Euope last year – approximately 38 FG%/22 3PT%, NBA summer league – 37.9 FG%/42.9 3PT% and in the NBA preseason – 33 FG%/25 3pt%. Currently, he’s at 47.9 FG%/49.1 3PT% with an eFG% on jumpshots of 55.9%. I’m sorry, but that’s an unsustainable level. Steve Nash’s eFG% is currently at 55.2% and last year it was 54.7%. I refuse to believe he’s anywhere as adept as the 2 time NBA MVP.
Conclusion: Sell high (in non-keeper leagues). Although I expect him to still put up solid lines, they won’t be at current levels. He will cool off and hit quite a few slumps as the law of averages tend to be cruel. In addition, opposing teams now know who he is so they’ll key on him defensively.
Channing should be nicknamed “rollercoaster” – from promising rookie to bench fodder to a fantasy owner’s dream. This Phoenix Suns starting center is averaging 12.9 points (on 44.4 FG% and 79 FT%), 2.7 3ptm, 5.7 rebounds and close to 1 block/steal per game. Simply marvelous when you consider he probably wasn’t even drafted in your league, but is he someone you keep for the long haul?
Yes. While Channing does possess solid NBA talent, it’s the fact that he’ll continue to see big minutes in the Valley of the Suns. The Frye guy was born to play center when Steve Nash is at the helm as he’s very proficient at shooting the perimeter shot and quicker than 90% of the opposition. He’ll never wow you with the rebounds nor blocked shots, but if your team is small ball orientated he’ll fit like a glove.
Conclusion: Jumpshooters are streaky so sell while the going is good; otherwise, hang onto him for what looks like will be a rewarding ride.
Who says the NBA isn’t one big family? Dahntay, a cousin of Al Harrington, is enjoying his finest NBA season to date. He is currently averaging 17.6 points (on 48.2 FG% and 78.1 FT%), 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks. Thought he was only a defensive stopper? Welcome to the club. However, if one looked closely enough, you’d have discovered he does know how to put the ball in the hoop. In 10 games in the NBDL 2 years ago, Dahntay averaged 24.4 points with close to 1 steal/block per game and his senior year at Duke 17.7 points. So can he keep it going?
This prediction isn’t as clear cut as the others as he’s got what seems to be a similar number of pro’s and con’s. Regarding the pro’s, he plays for the 2nd best team in terms of pace. Both Larry Bird and Coach O’brien are high on this kid as he’s got a bulldog defensive mentality. Lastly, he has demonstrated he possesses an aggressive yet pretty efficient offensive approach (6.6 FTA a game).
As far as the con’s, it would seem he’s been playing on borrowed time. Both Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy have missed most of the games played this season. Once they’re both back and healthy, it would dictate a few players will get squeezed for minutes in a fair amount of games.
Conclusion: Sell high if you can, but don’t despair. The likelihood that Brandon Rush takes his game to another level and Dunleavy/Murphy (and even Danny Granger) remain healthy here on out seem very remote. There may be a few periods where his production wanes, but don’t fear, he’ll get back on the court one way or another.
Every year there are players who will begin the season at a torrid pace. They rebound, steal, block and shoot their way to the top of the fantasy rankings right out of the gate. Conversely, on the less exciting side, there are also players you drafted early hoping they will have a stellar season for your team only to find out that they are anything but the great player you had hoped for.
This dichotomy can be so maddening for some owners that it will cause them to make rash decisions that savvy managers can exploit for their own selfish purposes (winning). Everyone likes a good deal and the fantasy community is no different. If you can find a manager who is tired of watching one of their star players under-perform, offer him a trade for a player(s) of less clout. The idea is to trade for a top-notch type player while he is at his statistical worst, buy low. Or trade away your over-achiever for a slumping stud, sell high.
The Buy Low
Before any trades are proposed, you need to consider a few things about the player(s) you are giving up as well as the player(s) you are receiving. When buying low, consider that you are essentially hunting in the bargain-bin at your local thrift store. The items (players) may have been nice at one time but now are used and a little worn out.
A few things to consider. Is the player coming off a down season that was an anomaly when compared to the rest of his career? Think Josh Smith last year, a year where he had career-lows in basically every statistical category (points, blocks, assists, rebounds) versus his play this year. Hopefully that year was just that, an anomaly, and the player will hopefully bounce back to his previous success of seasons past. Also, consider any injury history. Any player coming off of a major injury or surgery is surely going to have his value discounted at draft time. Finally, the true buy low player, a guy who just flat-out is not playing well at all but has a strong past track record to use as a reference point.
Here are a few buy low candidates to consider early on in the season.
The Injured Player.Kevin Martin and Chris Paul are two fantastic fantasy players that are viable buy low candidates at this point in the season and illustrate the injury aspect well. No one wants to have an injured player on their roster. Its no fun watching one of your premier players accumulate zeros across the board night after night. After a few days or weeks of having to sit through an injury it can be beneficial to approach a slumping manager with a trade proposal for an injured star.
The other K-Mart has a hairline fracture in his left wrist that required surgery on November 9th. He is due out anywhere from 6-8 weeks but could be out longer as he doesn’t have the best track record for staying healthy. Owners needing a lift in threes, points, and free throw percentage may want to make a play for him. With a guy like Martin, it may make sense to wait a while to let the owner’s frustration grow to the breaking point.
Chris Paul is also out of action due to an ankle sprain and the initial prognoses is that he will be out for approximately one month. Making a trade proposal for CP3 requires a little bit more effort and tact. It is no easy process to get an owner to give up his number one pick, let alone the first or second overall pick in the draft. Paul is most likely only out a few weeks not an extended period so one would have to give up a quality player(s) that are not only healthy but are also producing top tier value. The key here is to not go too overboard in who you are willing to give up. Sure Paul can easily win a number of categories and possibly it all for your team but he isn’t worth it if you have to strip your roster to the bear bones just to acquire him. If Paul’s owner is losing bad it could benefit you to make a play for him ASAP while he is still out for a few weeks and the owner is still antsy to get a productive body in his lineup.
This type of buy low is especially effective when tried on managers at the bottom of the standings. They are more likely to be willing to deal an injured stud for lesser value in order to keep from falling too far behind and out of the playoff hunt.
The Player Returning from Injury. Pretty self explanatory here. Target a player who is just getting ready or has just returned from injury. Anytime a player has an injury that forces them to miss extended amounts of time, he usually comes back rusty and has a few bad games early on. Currently, there are multiple players that fit this bill including Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Pau Gasol. Gordon and Love are still injured but are due back sooner rather than later and Gasol should be back to return Thursday night against the Bulls.
All three players are productive and can help virtually any team. When they do finally suit up, be sure to monitor their first couple of games. If they start out slow, send a trade proposal to open up tentative trade talks (nothing insulting). Most likely they will regain their form in a few games and will be right back to where they were before their injury. Just don’t wait too long because once they do fully recover, their value will drastically increase and your opportunity to buy low will be closed forcing you to pay full market value to obtain him.
Note: Be more cautious with major structural injuries that require months of rehabilitation as effects can often linger. Think Elton Brand trying to come back from his Achilles injury over the past couple of seasons.
The Slumping Player. Simple, go after any player who is performing below their career averages or your expected averages for this season. The idea here is the law of averages. If a player has performed at a certain (high) level for many years and is currently under-performing, he most likely will pick his game up at some point and eventually will end up performing at or near his career averages. A few players to consider under this model are Brand, Jose Calderon, Thaddeus Young and John Salmons.
All are in major slumps compared to their historical production and could be had on the cheap (well Brand’s window may be closed after his vintage performance against the Bobcats last night: 19 points on .471/.750 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 6 blocks and 1 turnover). One major caveat here is to be careful for a player currently slumping that also just signed a major extension, think Luol Deng in 2008-09, minus the stress fracture. Sometimes players just don’t have that fire in them after the big pay day and it can affect their entire season. For an excellent more in-depth article on Salmons, check out the latest Great Debate piece.
If one of your players is playing such great basketball that it seems unlikely that he will continue to keep pace, then selling high is your best option to get positive returns on your player investment.
The Injury Fill-In. Anytime a starter goes down he opens up a spot for a bench player to shine. They can often be great pick-ups for the short term but will quickly lose their value once the starter returns. One player to unload immediately, like as in yesterday, is Andray Blatche. With a Basketball Monster rank of 65th overall in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 53rd overall in per game value, Blatche’s value is as high as it ever will be. Antawn Jamison is back from a shoulder injury and the party is officially over for Andray. In Jamison’s first game back, Blatche had 6 points and zero rebounds in just over 17 minutes.
Rookies. Rookies have become more intriguing over the past couple of years and are capable of making an immediate fantasy impact. Guys like O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose had managers salivating last season. This year, Tyreke Evans, Blake Griffin (even though he hasn’t even played a game yet) and Brandon Jennings have all been hot commodities. Jennings in particular appears to have been the steal of the draft (in both real life and in fantasy) with an average draft position of 126th overall in Yahoo! leagues. His 55 point outburst against Golden State last week got everyone’s attention and if you are skeptical of his ability to continue at such a high rate, now is the time to start shopping him. His current Ziguana rank is 15th overall. I’m not saying he won’t be great the rest of the year because he easily can be, but consider that it is early in a long season.
Rookies are not used to the physical demands of the NBA and its grueling 82 game schedule. The fabled “rookie wall” is very important to consider. Usually sometime mid-season around the 45-50 game mark, rookies start to slow down and their production drops. It is part of the game, learning how to keep your body healthy for the length of the season and rookies sometimes forget that the season is a marathon not a sprint. Watch out for the rookie wall and consider selling high before it happens to your rooks, especially if you can get a proven stud in return.
The Injury-Prone Player. The classic sell high candidate is the injury-prone player. A guy who always seems to miss time each season but is a strong player when healthy. To look at it from another perspective, they have high per game values but low cumulative values. There are many players that fall into this category and it can often be tough to cut ties with a player who is playing to his full potential. This season there have been a number of players you could label as injury-prone who are healthy and are rewarding their owners.
Two of the best example are Staples Center big men Chris Kaman and Andrew Bynum. Over the past two seasons combined, they have missed 77 and 79 games respectively. But this year they are both healthy so far and are producing a per game Ziguana rank of 49th and 12th overall, respectively. When they are healthy they can carry your team in blocks and rebounding while providing solid percentages and points. But with multiple, serious injuries in the past, their durability is definitely an issue to consider. Kaman seems to have found his rhythm and is playing very well. Ongoing nagging injuries and simply being old could keep Marcus Camby “day-to-day” for longer than expected making Kaman’s production sustainable for the foreseeable future. Even with Blake Griffin due back next month from injury, expect Kaman’s value to hold strong. Bynum is a little more of a wild card. Two major knee surgeries in the past are signs owners might be a little scared of. However his 20.3 points on .591/.717 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11.8 rebounds 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.8 blocks and 2.3 turnovers make Bynum a major sell high candidate, just be sure you get quality value in return for the young center. Also, just remember that Bynum has posted these numbers with Pau on the floor this season, which is another reason to consider selling high on Andrew.
Four Games: ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, MIA, MIL, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, TOR
Three Games: BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, LAC, LAL, MEM, NJN, NYK, PHI, PHI, SAC, SAS, UTA, WAS
Two Games: MIN
ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)
Will Bynum – He’s got a juicy four game schedule and both Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton are not expected to play during the road trip. Although Bynum’s numbers will likely take a hit when Rip gets back, he still might be worth owning as he’ll probably still get around 25 minutes a game and contribute decent scoring stats, assists and steals.
Toney Douglas – Over the last week, Toney has been the Knicks best guard. It’s not saying much when you check the competition but it is very noteworthy. D’Antoni’s grey is becoming more noticeable by the day and he’s tired of it. Currently, he is re-evaluating the entire rotation and it is expected he’ll go with the youth. I expect Toney to continue to get strong playing time and help fantasy owners in scoring stats, efficiency and steals.
Rudy Fernandez/Martell Webster – Funny how in one week Martell goes from the drop list to the add list. Thanks Outlaw! With Travis sidelined for at least 6 weeks, both of these guys will probably be worth owning. Martell has a golden opportunity to really seize some time as it’s not expected the Blake/Miller/Roy trio to continue starting. If Webster is able to start knocking his shot down with any regularity, he’ll put up very serviceable numbers across the board. Rudy on the other hand is a perfect fit for the 6th man so that should continue. However, his minutes are going to get a bump up so nab him if you really need help with 3’s and steals.
Chris Douglas-Roberts – He licked the swine flu in no time and has already logged 35 minutes in the Nets last game. Pick him up if he’s available because the Nets are in dire need of his potential contributions. He’ll be rewarding owners as soon as this coming week in points, efficiency, steals and rebounds.
Thabo Sefolosha – There is no denying it, he has a major role in the Thunder’s rotation because of his defensive abilities. It’s a great sign that he’s still been getting a ton of time even though his shot has been way off of late (6-25 in the last 4 games). While he’ll never be a volume shooter, he will help fantasy managers in 3’s, boards and defensive categories.
CUT LIST
DJ Augustin – Seems DJ is going through the motions of a second year player. There were high hopes entering the season but he’s gotten off to a slow start and it appears Larry Brown won’t help him. The other night, DJ took a shot off a pick and roll instead of passing to the open player and Coach promptly yanked him. With Raja Bell attempting to play through his injuries and Flip Murray back, Augustin will be pressed to find consistent minutes.
Chris Duhon – Chris was never meant to be a fantasy relevant player, but that changed the day he put on a Knick uniform. While he has the ability to put up some nice numbers on occasion, he hasn’t even been close thus far this season. D’Antoni hasn’t kicked him to the curb yet, but I expect the next game or two to be a nice barometer for the next few months. If he shows signs of snapping out of it, hang on to him as Coach will undoubtedly stick with him. If not, send him packing.
Josh Howard- Well that didn’t take long. Howard is already out indefinitely with rumors claiming he’ll be out until the end of December. Considering the surgery was back in May and he’s still not right, I don’t suggest standard leagues to stick by this brittle body.
WATCH LIST
Darren Collison – Darren might be a nice plug in option for at least this upcoming week, but I’m not sold on him. He struggled in his first start against the Hawks and scary as it sounds, Bobby Brown outplayed him. It’s easy to envision him going from a bad game to average to bad to good to bad again. Also, after this week, the Hornets will have two straight weeks of just 2 games so I assume there should be a better interim option out there at this time.
JJ Hickson – The Cavaliers moved him into the starting lineup to shake things up a bit after a disappointing start to the year. Somewhat surprisingly, JJ has come through with flying colors. In their last game against Utah, he put up 20 points, but more importantly, he received 38 minutes on the floor. If this continues, then he’ll most likely be worthy of ownership in standard sized leagues.
Marcus Thornton- Last week, I had him in my Deep League Specials section, but this week he gets a bump up. It’s no secret that the Hornets are struggling especially on the offensive end. Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Devin Brown and James Posey have looked awful too many times. With Jeff Bower responsible for drafting Marcus, I believe he’ll get his share of chances at significant playing time rewarding owners with points, 3’s, FT% and steals.
STAY THE COURSE
Andris Biedrins – Horrid start for sure. Combine that with a lousy back injury that seemed to be perpetuated by Nellie’s lack of sense, he’s giving fantasy owners absolutely nothing right now. However, according to Ziguana, he put up Round 5 value last season. Considering the Warriors have no other viable center, he’ll jump back into the rotation once he’s deemed healthy.
John Salmons – He couldn’t have gotten off to a worst start – under 32% from the field thus far. However, don’t make the mistake on either dropping him or selling low as he’s a proven efficient shooter. Despite his struggles, he’s averaging 38 minutes a game so it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a valuable asset on your team.
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS
Eddy Curry, Jordan Hill – I’ve got a strong feeling one of these two guys will be relevant as soon as this coming week. David Lee at center seems worse than last year as his opposition is running layup drills around him. With Darko Milicicapparently not a factor, one can expect D’Antoni to next look to these two guys. Hill has shown flashes of late that he’s got some game but he still has a number of things to learn (as indicated by his foul rate). Curry has been a laughing stock for such a long time but the Knicks are desperate. He’s lost a ton of weight and might be serviceable until his next injury.
CJ Watson – In the world of Nellie, even fodder can turn into gold. Not surprisingly, Stephen Curry has already landed on the end of the bench so CJ has been able to receive some fantastic minutes the last two games (27 and 34). Subsequently, he has taken full advantage of it by playing very well and there is a decent chance it’ll continue in the short term.
As expected, week one was full of surprises and story lines with some of the League’s young players making serious noise. Denver’s Carmelo Anthony is off to an head start in the battle to secure this season’s scoring title, averaging 35.5 points in his first two games. New York’s Danilo Gallinari is proving why he deserved to be a lottery pick (and sleeper) draining a whopping five treys per in his first two games. Milwaukee’s Brandon Jennings put everyone on notice with his near triple double NBA debut (17 points, 9 rebounds, 9 assists).
With one exciting week down and many more to go, it’s never too soon to start planning for next week.
Week Two Schedules
Four Games: ATL, BOS, DEN, DET, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, NOR, NYK, ORL, PHO, SAC, UTA, WAS
Three Games: CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, OKC, PHI, POR, TOR
Two Games: SAS
Cut List
Antonio McDyess — It looks like it is going to take a front court injury to make Dice fantasy relevant this season. Feel free to cut bait on Antonio for a hot hand. Decision that much easier with the Spurs the only team playing two games next week (against Utah and Portland on the road; both teams play much better at home).
Peja Stojakovic — Apparently people drafted Peja this season and are still holding on to him (60 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues). Look for cheap threes elsewhere.
Corey Maggette — Maggette is still owned in the majority of Yahoo! leagues, despite his terrible start. While still providing help in free throw percentage, Corey has been a drag on field goal percentage due to his relentless chucking. In case you need any more convincing, Maggette still plays for fantasy basketball’s most frustrating coach, Don Nelson.
Watch List / Add List
* Note: Percentages in parentheses denote ownership rates in Yahoo! leagues.
Larry Hughes (38%) — While certainly not known for his shot selection (well, actually he is, for all the wrong reasons), Hughes is certainly a scorer. Hughes 2009-10 debut against the Sixers was a nice showing, dropping 18 points on .636/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, 1 block and 4 turnovers. Still not convinced? Hughes is in a contract year this season (see 2004-05 season).
Kelenna Azubuike (37%) — Azubuike has quietly put together the same line that put him in the top-100 last season, giving him a Basketball Monster rank of 65th in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 71st in per game value. Kelenna will get you scoring on good percentages and will have a few big games this season. He also gets you solid defensive production from a guard-eligible player, which is always a plus.
Marreese Speights (30%) — If any of the bigs in Philly have benefited from Eddie Jordan’s much-heralded Princeton offense, it appears to be Speights (BBM: 38th; Ziguana 41st). Averaging a 16.7 points on a scorching .750/.824 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 7.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers per game. Obviously his field goal percentage will come back to earth but his offensive aggresiveness is paying dividends for owners. Pick him up while he’s hot.
Anthony Parker (30%) — With Delonte West making his triumphant return to the Cavs’ rotation, Parker’s top-100 fantasy value now faces stiffer competition. Definitely a situation to monitor and both players could end up canceling each others’ value out in the long in the dreaded time-share situation.
Ty Lawson (25%) — Think any teams are regretting passing on Lawson yet? If not, they will be. Outside of deep leagues and keeper/dynasty formats, Lawson is another guy to keep on your radar. If veteran point guard Chauncey Billups misses any time, run to the waiver wire and pickup Ty.
Hakim Warrick (24%) –Warrick will most likely carve out a decent amount of minutes in the Bucks’ front court rotation. Whether starting or providing a spark off the bench, Warrick should provide end of the bench fantasy value. Worth a speculative add if you have dead weight on your roster.
Terrence Williams (19%) — Another guy to pickup for speculative purposes is Terrence Williams. Playing for the woeful New Jersey Nets, he is slated to get plenty of burn as the Nets look to maximize their ping-pong balls next summer.
Chris Douglas-Roberts (11%) — Similar to Williams, CDR is also due for some big burn this season and has a chance to muscle his way into the top-100 (currently ranked 115th in per game value according to BBM and 111th according to Ziguana). With Devin Harris out for a few games with a minor injury (surprise, surprise), CDR should get a slight boost of minutes in the short term.
Stay the Course
D.J. Augustin — Augustin’s season has been a bit of a roller coaster already. He (and the Bobcats in general) laid an egg in Boston for their season opener. He followed up with a nice scoring outing against the New York Knicks, which should be taken with a hearty dose of salt. With that being said, it is a little too early to discard D.J. to the trash heap just yet. Give him another week before making any rash decisions.
Chris Andersen — The Birdman has disappointed fantasy managers so far this season. He was drafted as a one category contributer and has provided below average returns on managers; investment (0.5 blocks per game versus 2.5 last season). The blocks will return, as Andersen’s role is to be a game changing defender in the paint for the Nuggets.
Injury Adds
Rafer Alston — As alluded to earlier, Harris is out for an unknown amount of time with a ticky-tack injury. Nothing new here. In his absence, Alston stepped up dropping 20 points on .727/.500 percent shooting, 3 threes, 2 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 steal, o blocks and 4 turnovers against the Wizards on Halloween. Skip to My Lou is a nice short term add for scoring, assists and threes while Harris nurses his wounds.
Buy Low
John Salmons — At this point in the season, there are probably a decent amount of fantasy managers that are nervous with Salmons’ performance. His .172 field goal percentage is probably at the top of their list of worries. However, keep in mind that Salmons is still getting adjusted to being the Man with Ben Gordonnow playing in Detroit. It is important to note that the Bulls only two games so far this season have come against Boston and San Antonio, two of the league’s best defensive teams out there. Time to send out lowball offers to Salmons owners before he drops his signature lines.
Sell High
Tim Duncan — It is completely conceivable that Duncan has already had his best game of the season against the Chicago Bulls (28 points on .684/.500 percent shooting, 16 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks and 2 turnovers). The Chicago game should be considered an aberration with his other two performances more likely the norm. As the Spurs clinch a playoff spot, Duncan’s minutes will only decrease and surprise DNP’s will make him harder and harder to move. Sell him now based on his monster second game if you can find a decent deal.
