Basketball Free For All

I compiled a quick list of some guys who might be of use in the short term to help your teams this week.  Hopefully everyone is already aware of guys like Toney Douglas, Jrue Holiday and Anthony Tolliver.  Good luck!

Matt Bonner (PF, C – 7%) – His role has increased a bit of late so he could help the deeper league team in a few cat’s but mainly 3’s.

James Harden (PG, SG – 26%) – see Phil’s article.

Chris Hunter (SF/PF/C – 2%) – As Golden State’s only true center still standing, expect Chris to see decent time down the stretch.  On his productive nights, expect points (on great FG%), boards and an occasional block.

Serge Ibaka (C – 5%) – He’s playing with a lot of confidence right now and can help you with boards/blocks.

Kyle Lowry (PG/SG – 9%) – As his ankle has strengthened, he’s gone back to being more effective again.  In addition, Battier continues to miss time to a hyper extended knee.  Kyle will help with points, assists and steals.

Jason Maxiell (PF/C – 23%) – Don’t let his last game scare you off as he got into foul trouble.  By many accounts, Ben Wallace is done so Max will get a lot of run putting up great boards with decent points/blocks.

Wesley Matthews (PG/SG – 12%)/CJ Miles (SG/SF – 13%) – Points, 3’s and steals available here but expectations should be tempered a bit as Andrei Kirilenko is slated to return Friday.

Darko Milicic (PC/C – 12%) – Over his last 4 games, he’s averaging just over 30 minutes.  Boards/blocks are good with decent points and FG%.

James Singleton (SF/PF – 8%) – Flip just stated he’s going to be inserted into the starting lineup.  He’s a rebounding machine but can help in points and defensive categories on certain nights.  Must add for those looking for boards as he’s got a very fantasy friendly schedule down the stretch.

Bill Walker (SG/SF – 8%) – Juicy matchup against PHO and going forward the Knicks play 10 games with Wilson Chandler still sidelined and Tracy McGrady always ready to go down.  With decent run, he’s usually good for points, 3’s and steals.

Earl Watson (PG – 19%) -  TJ Ford continues to miss games so Earl could be a good source of assists/steals with a 3 or two.  However, do so as a last resort as Ford is slated to be back any day now.

Reggie Williams (SF – 19%) – Nellie loves anyone who can put the ball in the hoop and currently Reggie is converting at a very efficient clip (sorry Anthony Morrow owners).  Get his scoring (on good percentages), 3’s and rebounds while he’s still hot!

It’s the final countdown!  Before I get into this week’s list, I’ve got to keep harping over these guys whose ownership is just over 40%:  Carlos Delfino, George Hill, Taj Gibson and Drew Gooden.  Hill looks to be primed to finish the year like a beast thanks to Tony Parker’s broken hand.  Gibson has excellent prospects as well as Joakim Noah isn’t even close to being a force in the paint anytime soon.  Lastly, Gooden and Delfino seem they’ll be able to continue their multi-cat ways.

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Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

The NBA basketball season is underway and with that a number of us are participating in various fantasy leagues.  It’s obviously an exciting time as we get to see how our newly drafted teams kick off the year.  A few will be happy with the initial results, but most of us will have qualms about at least a player or two on our roster.  To add to the confusion, there are several guys just sitting on the waiver wire begging to picked up after putting up an enticing line or two.  Should we jump the gun and pick them up?  Or will we regret our decision and feel like the league’s laughing stock?

Since most of us play in standard sized leagues (12 teams each with 13 players), I’m going to gear the examples in this article towards them.  Before you pick up that alluring free agent, I want you to ask yourself 3 questions.

First, regarding the player in question, will he have an opportunity to put up serviceable numbers consistently for at least the near future?  The main thing you want to examine is minutes.  Inconsistent time on the court is almost always going to lead to spotty production.

There are numerous indicators that point to solid time.  Perhaps the player just fell into a solid role due to a teammate’s injury.  Maybe he emerged as the leading candidate from a position battle.  Or he could be a young guy or a non-playoff team who improved significantly over the the summer.

Off the top of my head, some guys who come to mind so far this season that fit the bill are Andray Blatche, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Andres Nocioni, Danilo Gallinari, Ben Wallace, Corey Brewer, Roy Hibbert and Channing Frye.

On the other hand, guys like DeJuan Blair, Ty Lawson, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams and Jason Williams should probably be left on the waiver wire.  They have all had a solid line or two, but in all their cases it is unlikely to continue.  For instance, promising rookies like Blair and Lawson have had some eye-popping numbers but it came in blowouts where the starters played significantly less.

Next, you need to ask what is the free agent’s prior history? There are always a few players in the league who continue to entice owners year after year because they show a glimpse of good value.  For example, this season, already Larry Hughes, Erick Dampier and Travis Outlaw have probably lured a few fantasy managers to pick them up.

However, it’s probably not a good idea.  Hughes has a solid history of putting up an occasionally stellar line the last few years, but he can never sustain any consistent production.  Moreover, he is currently getting quite a bit of run at the expense of Nate Robinson’s short term injury.  Don’t forget Larry DEFINITELY-NOT-A Legend, made 1 of 23 shots in preseason.

Erick Dampier has currently enjoyed several solid lines, but I don’t think he’s turned back the clock.  His numbers have been in steady decline since the Mavericks landed him 5 years.  Also, newly signed Drew Gooden has missed several games due to a pulled rib cage muscle.

Travis Outlaw has the ability to score in bunches, but Portland is so deep that even with Nicolas Batum’s shoulder injury he’ll be more off than on.  Martell Webster is still the starter and most nights they’ll cancel out one another’s value with the dreaded fantasy time share.

Third, how useful will the free agent be on my team? For Rotisserie and Points leagues, this may not be that large of an issue since every player has similar value to every other manager in the league.  However, if you’ve already got two solid 3 point shooting guards on your bench, does it really make sense to add a third and thereby really limiting your team’s flexibility?

On the contrary, in Head to Head leagues, managers need to also examine whether the free agent will help their strengths.  Many owners don’t (and rightfully so) try to be competitive in all the categories in their league.  It just doesn’t make sense to try to win them all when it substantially reduces the odds of winning the majority of categories week in and week out.  Thus, when picking up a free agent, a manager should always be aware of his strengths and improve on those, rather than fruitlessly worry about their weaknesses.

Naturally, you should ignore the last two paragraphs if the free agent in question looks like they’ll post top 100 value for an extended period of time.  Even though the player may not suit your team, he will surely be coveted by someone else and would make excellent trade bait.

Over the course of the season, I’m going to try to touch on a few subjects focusing on particular strategies everyone should be aware of in fantasy basketball.  If any of you would like to see a particular topic discussed, feel free to email me or leave a comment at the end of the article.

For years now the man behind the mask, Richard Hamilton, has been a staple of the overachieving Piston’s backcourt. In 2002, Hamilton was traded from Washington to Detroit in a package deal centered around Hamilton for Jerry Stackhouse. Ever since, he has been a vital cog in the Piston’s war machine, a team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals an amazing six years in a row after Rip’s arrival and won it all in 2003-04. Now after many productive years in Detroit, it seems that a tide of change is in the proverbial air.

Last season, we saw Hamilton’s backcourt running mate and trusted floor general, Chauncey Billups, get shipped out to Denver in exchange for Allen Iverson. Acquiring ‘the Answer’ was one of Piston’s President Joe Dumars’ attempts (he also fired head coach Flip Saunders) to reshape his elite roster into another Championship-caliber team to compete for years to come.

Well, we saw how that worked out. Now that the dust has finally settled from last season’s implosion, Hamilton has begun to (uncharacteristically) speak out about the A.I. situation and the team’s lack of strong leadership from the coaching position.

“It could have worked out,” said Hamilton. “I just thought the coach we had at the time (didn’t) put us in situations where we all could be at our best. When you don’t have that, it makes it difficult. All the guys are trying to figure it out on the floor, on the fly, rather than putting us in situations where we could be better.”

Source: The Detroit News

Hamilton is really going out on a limb here to backup Iverson for his troubled season last year in Detroit. Iverson took a lot of heat for all of the Piston’s shortcomings and was basically a scapegoat for the franchise (and Dumars) as they ran him out of town.

Hamilton bashes then head coach Michael Curry saying he failed to maximize the potential of the team by bringing both Iverson and he off the bench at various times throughout the season.This instead of allowing them to both start together in the backcourt from day one.

Rip is right for defending Iverson. He and A.I. starting together would have made quite a potent tandem. The fact that the Pistons were intent on developing Rodney Stuckey came at the expense of their All-Star and future Hall of Famer that was ready to contribute right away. Make no mistake, Stuckey is the future of the team and does need playing time to develop, but not at the expense of hindering your star player that you just traded for. Moreover, as it’s been widely rumored, someone promised AI a starting type of role. How did you expect he was going to react when he suddenly was tossed aside.

By taking Rip and Iverson away from their customary starting roles, Curry hurt their egos and caused them to compete against each other instead of the opposing teams. When they did share the court together personal agendas seemed to be the primary goal, as each player seemed intent to show what they could do and not what the team could do (for Iverson, this trait has followed him to his new team). The result was a roller coaster ride from start to finish resulting in a playoff appearance in which the Piston’s failed to win a game in the first round of the playoffs.

Now Rip, Ben Wallace and Tayshaun Prince are the sole remaining starters from their championship team in 2003-04. No, Chucky Atkins’ corpse doesn’t count. With the Piston’s bringing in younger talent, i.e. Ben Gordon, Will Bynum, Stuckey, Austin Daye and Charlie Villanueva, one has to wonder what the future holds for the aging Piston veterans.

The fact that Rip is speaking out could spell trouble for his relationship with the franchise. The team has relied and continues to rely heavily on Hamilton for all aspects of its offense. As evidence, his career usage percentage is 28th of all time. The Pistons have also been considerably better across the board with Hamilton on the floor. There is no doubt Rip has been a loyal soldier for D-Town and has been one of the primary stabilizing forces both on and off the court.

Despite all of this, you can’t help but get the feeling that Rip is on his way out of the Motor City sooner rather than later (by the trade deadline perhaps). His production has been very consistent for years, sporting strong career averages of 17.9 points per game on .454/.853 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 3.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.2 turnovers.  Stats like this would be attractive to a number of teams seeking an upgrade at the two guard position.

Offseason acquisition Ben Gordon is a younger shooting guard who is ready to move into the starting lineup and can easily supply Hamilton’s twenty points a game. Emerging guard Will Bynum could then fulfill Gordon’s role as instant offense off the bench, making Hamilton more or less expendable. If the Pistons can obtain a post presence or dynamic forward in return, the current crop of Pistons guards can certainly step up and fill Rip’s shoes.

Working against Rip changing addresses, however, are both his age (he will turn 32 next February) and his salary (he is scheduled to make over $11 million in 2010 and then $12.5 million per year through 2013) may make him less attractive to potential suitors. In these oh so tough economic times, contracts such as Rip’s are becoming harder and harder to move.

But his reputation as an upstanding citizen (he participates in numerous charity events and frequently donates to local youth campaigns for his hometown in Pennsylvania), and his abilities on the court will always provide a market for Hamilton. If the Piston’s decide to really strip the roster down and completely start anew, they will look to provide more time for the youth of the future (Stuckey, Bynum, Gordon) expect Rip to be one of the first players on the trading block.

He logged major minutes in the season opener but has been MIA ever since with . For as long as he remains a Piston, Rip should see steady minutes on the court. However, the only certain thing in Rip’s future is uncertainty as the Pistons continue their quest to remodel the franchise.

It is truly rare to be able to sense a catastrophic event before it happens. However, for those carefully attuned to the recent offseason developments in the NBA, Detroit seems poised on the brink of the abyss.

Talk about piling on. It’s no secret that Detroit is in trouble in these oh-so-tough economic times (median sale price for a house in Detroit these days is $8,000; and no, that number is not missing any zeroes).

But taking a step back and examining the moves the Pistons have made to assemble the 2009-10 Pistons, it is clear that the old Pistons are truly gone. With Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups gone, the perennial Eastern Conference Finalists have been forever changed, and most certainly for the worse.

It is understandable that Joe Dumars and the Pistons wanted change. After so much disappointment and so many letdowns following their 2004 NBA Championship, it was inevitable that they would overhaul their roster. But change for the sake of change is not improvement and that is exactly what the Pistons’ roster moves have felt.

The point of any change is to make the team better. Any roster move (applies to both fantasy and real life) that does not make the team better, either in the present or future, was a bad move.

So let’s break down the Pistons’ offseason moves to see if there is reason to believe this team has improved during the 2009 offseason.

Coaching Change

After a disappointing 2008-09 season, rookie head coach Michael Curry was canned in favor of another rookie head coach, John Kuester. But what do we know about John Kuester and can we expect his tenure to be different from Curry’s rookie season as a coach?

Kuester has a long track record as an assistant coach in the NBA, including working for Hall of Fame Head Coach Larry Brown on the Pistons’ 2004 championship squad and for Brown’s entire tenure as head coach in Philadelphia. More recently, Kuester worked with the Pistons’ Eastern Conference rival the Cleveland Cavaliers under head coach Mike Brown.

Kuester’s most recent, and most famous role was of Mike Brown’s offensive coordinator with the Cavaliers last season, a season that saw the team jump from 19th (and a very ugly 19th, at that) in offensive efficiency to fourth last season with Kuester joining Cleveland’s ranks.

Yes, the Cavaliers enjoyed a solid season from new addition Mo Williams, Lebron James improves, and the club also got a full year’s run out of Delonte West; but the shape of the Cleveland offense was markedly different with Kuester on board, something you couldn’t completely pin on personnel changes and internal development. Kuester had these guys in the right places.

Source: Yahoo!

No doubt about it, the 2008-09 Cavaliers were much better offensively than the 2007-08 version. That is a statistical fact. What is up for debate is how much of that is due to the continued development of Lebron James, how much is due to the addition of Mo Williams and first full season of Delonte West and how much is due to Kuester’s X’s and O’s.

Watching Cleveland’s offensive sets last season, basically every play revolved around putting the ball in Lebron’s hands and clearing out the lane. Lebron was the primary playmaker and rarely played off the ball, where his athleticism allows him to be deadly. Don’t underestimate the impact of the addition of Mo to the Cavalier’ success. With Williams on board, James had another guy he could trust to take big shots and initiate the offense instead of relying solely on himself.

One word is notably absent from discussions of Kuester’s assistant coaching gigs: defense. With all of his experience assisting Coach Larry Brown, you hope that Brown’s defensive philosophy has rubbed off on Kuester. For defense more so than any other factor is going to be the key to the fate of the Pistons’ 2009-10 season. And that is mainly due to the roster changes that were made over the last few months in Detroit.

Roster Changes

The current Detroit roster marks the start of the new era (i.e. end of the Rasheed Wallace era in Detroit).

Out: Rasheed Wallace; Allen Iverson; Antonio McDyess; Amir Johnson; Arron Afflalo; and Walter Herrmann.

In: Charlie Villanueva; Ben Gordon; Chris Wilcox; and Ben Wallace.
Rookies: Austin Daye; Deron Washington.

With all the changes, the depth chart looks fairly different from last season. (Not seeing Sheed on the Pistons roster just seems strange; beware).

PG: Rodney Stuckey, Will Bynum
SG: Richard Hamilton, Ben Gordon, Deron Washington
SF: Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye
PF: Charlie Villanueva, Jason Maxiell
C: Chris Wilcox, Kwame Brown, Ben Wallace

The main problem with the Pistons new makeup is that most of the players they lost were known to be decent defenders, especially Wallace and McDyess. And the players they took on, Villanueva,  Gordon and Wilcox, are not known for being great defenders (to be politically correct). But that is all opinion.

What do the numbers say?

In trying to compare the outgoing players, offensive and defensive efficiencies are useful for comparing players on different teams that play at different paces, which can skew raw statistics. Comparing the net difference between a player’s offensive efficiency (O-Rating) and defensive efficiency (D-Rating) to show their net impact on the court.

Looking at the minutes is very important when consulting statistics such as these because in general a small sample is much less reliable than a larger sample.  It’s probably wise to take any advanced statistics with a grain of salt for any player who logged less than a thousand minutes. Like most statistics, the bigger the sample size the better.

First take a look at the players the Pistons have added to the roster.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

And compare them to the outgoing players.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

On the face of it, the exchange of players seems like it would be a negligible difference (excluding players who played less than 1000 minutes last season). The incoming players are a combined +8 and the outgoing players are a combined +8 as well. Everything seems to be in perfect harmony, right?

Wrong.

There are two main reasons why: Ben Wallace and Chauncey Billups.

First, let’s deal with Big Ben. Wallace’s career is clearly on its last legs and thus he can be expected to play a rapidly diminishing role on the team as time progresses. As the single biggest positive on the incoming side, this means that the incoming +8 is actually skewed and is only positive solely because of Wallace.

The more bearish you are on Wallace’s future performance, the worse this exchange of players looks. To put it in perspective, the exchange made the Pistons defensively worse off in the medium and long term (-4 excluding Big Ben).

Continuing with the long term perspective, let’s revisit the franchise altering trade of Billups for Iverson. Yes, I know McDyess was a part of that trade but he ended up back with the Pistons after negotiating a buyout and returning to D-Town. So this trade was Billups for Iverson, straight up.

Using mathematical properties, we can substitute Billups for Iverson in the outgoing chart.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

With the Billups effect accounted for as well, suddenly the outgoing players are a +20 (again excluding players with less than 1000 minutes) and the incoming players are either a +8 or -4 depending upon how you view the impact of Ben Wallace for both next season and the future. This gives the entire transaction a net impact of either a -12 overall or a shocking -24.

The Verdict

On paper, it appears that the Pistons’ recent makeover has actually made them worse off overall. The big x-factor will be rookie head coach John Kuester. Teams can overcome having poor defensive players on them through superb coaching. In some cases, however, the defensive liabilities are just too great to overcome. This might be one of those cases. But make no mistake, Kuester has a chance to be a truly great coach one day.

Regardless, it is clear that the 2009-10 Pistons have huge potential. Train wreck potential (see also Memphis Grizzlies, 2009-10). For the Pistons faithful, let’s just hope that Joe Dumars hasn’t taken the D out of Detroit once and for all.

The depth charts and free agents pages have been updated to reflect rosters at the start of free agency (negotiations opened on July 1st at midnight). The depth charts will be continually updated to reflect offseason moves when teams are allowed to officially cut deals beginning next week. Until then, just enjoy the steady churning of the rumor mill and hope your team lands an emerging talent (Paul Millsap or Trevor Ariza anyone?) that puts them over the top. Like if the Suns could somehow land Marcin Gortat (after buying out Ben Wallace of course). That would be a very nice way to close the book on the Shaq era in the valley of the Suns.

This past Saturday, the ever-present NBA trade rumors began to swirl again. This time talks were centered around one of the NBA’s biggest stars (literally), Shaquille O’Neal of the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns and the Cleveland Cavaliers are rumored to be engaged in preliminary trade talks that would send O’Neal to the Cavs for the expiring contracts of Ben Wallace ($14 million) and Sasha Pavlovic ($4.95 million with $1.5 million guaranteed). This is strictly a cost cutting move as far as the Suns are concerned.

The team does not want to go deep into luxury tax territory, especially considering that this is a team that failed to even reach the playoffs in 2009. Bloated with the league’s sixth largest payroll last season and an aging core of superstars, the Shaq trade could really help free up some money for Phoenix as well as allow them to return to their run and gun offense.

Here is the breakdown:

With O’Neal’s $20 million salary (but a $21 million salary-cap number due to a trade kicker), the trade could save the Suns $9.9 million or even more if Wallace wants a buyout. The trade would save the Suns $3.1 million in payroll and projected luxury tax. Cutting Pavlovic, who has $1.5 million guaranteed in his final contract year’s $4.95 million salary, could save another $6.8 million in payroll and tax.

From a straight basketball perspective this is a home run for the Cavaliers. The Cavs made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals this year but ultimately fell short of their goal of winning a championship. The Cavs were exposed for their lack of a true interior presence. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (whose foot is full of metal plates and screws from multiple surgeries) was nowhere near up to the task of providing a defensive answer to the man-child that is Dwight Howard in the paint.

Adding Shaq to the mix allows Cleveland to match-up with the Howards, the Elton Brands and the KGs of the Eastern Conference. They would immediately have a post presence to go to late in games when Mo Williams‘ and Delonte West’s jump shots aren’t falling.

Lebron James can’t possibly be expected to carry the offensive load every single night can he? Putting Shaq in the middle clogs the lane and gives you a legitimate defensive stopper as well as a more than capable offensive option (60% field goal percentage last season).

As evidenced by his time in Phoenix, Shaq’s biggest defensive flaw might be defending the pick-and-roll. However, he would still command double teams in the post freeing up the rest of the Cav’s shooters. Cleveland, with Shaq and a couple other key additions, would be in great position for a title run next season.

One thing is for sure though. Shaq still has a little diesel left in that huge tank of his.

One of the big rumors near the trade deadline this season was the Phoenix Suns sending Shaquille O’Neal to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic.

“The Phoenix Suns discussed a potential trade with the Cleveland Cavaliers which would have paired Shaquille O’Neal with LeBron James for a run at the NBA title, two NBA executives familiar with the talks said Thursday morning. A Cavs official, however, said any talks regarding O’Neal have since ended.

One agent said the Suns told him they weren’t doing a deal. The Cavs’ discussions with Phoenix centered on sending Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic to the Suns.”

Source: Yahoo! Sports

Anyone think the Cavs would want a take-back on this one?

After watching them get man-handled by Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic, do you think the Cavs brass are dying to hit reset? Shaq is one of the few centers that can guard Howard one-on-one without getting annihilated. He also can get into Howard’s head, causing him to make poor decisions and to get into foul trouble (using that all important ‘veteran saavy’).

Wallace does a decent enough job guarding Howard, but is such an assent on the offensive end that the Magic don’t really have to guard him. This allows his man to act as a help defender or weak-side shot blocker. When guarding Wallace, Howard doesn’t get into foul trouble as much, which is critical to slowing down the Magic (although Marcin Gortat has proven to be a force off the bench as well).

With Lebron James, Shaq and Mo Williams the Cavaliers would have three players in the starting lineup capable of dropping twenty points on any given night. Even if they had to throw Wally Szczerbiak into the deal to make it sweet enough for the Suns, the Cavs would still be in much better shape and would probably not be facing elimination at the hands of the Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Hindsight is 20/20 — which coincidentally is what the Cavs need to avoid elimination (20 points and 20 boards from the center position).

What makes a team truly great?

Obviously having talent is a prerequisite to having a great team if you are talking about playing basketball at the professional level. If you are at the high school or collegiate level, sometimes heart and pure effort can make up for talent deficiencies. Or a team that is well-coached can play above the sum the individual parts’ talent levels and become a truly great team.

When you watch a team that is truly great play basketball, they often make the extra pass in order to get the highest percentage look at the rim. “Making the extra pass” can often be heard by broadcasters when a team is really clicking and playing great basketball.

So what is the role of ball movement in the NBA?

To illustrate, let’s look at a simple statistic to compare the thirty teams in the NBA to each other. The teams are ranked according to their field goal-to-assist ratio. This simple ratio takes a team’s total field goals made and divides them by their total assists during the course of a season.

A perfect 1.00 ratio would mean that the team would have to made up of all Chris Pauls. Or it would have to feature excellent passers all positions (like Paul, Wade, James, Diaw, B. Miller). Actually, forget about it because that would be impossible.

A pitiful 0.00 ratio would be like the Houston Rockets with Tracy McGrady and four Ben Wallaces.  Every play would be an iso for T-Mac after he walked the ball across half-court. I imagine a first round playoff exit for this Rockets squad…

Is this field goal-to-assist ratio the best possible representative of ball movement? Definitely not but it is a simple way of approximating which teams move the ball more than others. Using what statistics are publicly available (I can’t wait until NBA teams have to publish all their data, similar to how a company is forced to file certain sensitive financial information with the SEC that is ultimately given to the general public).

Before compiling the list, my assumption was that the best teams in the NBA would generally cluster towards the top of the list and the worst teams would cluster towards the bottom. To me, ball movement is absolutely critical to team success. But what does the data say?

1. Washington Wizards (0.64)
2. Los Angeles Lakers** (0.61)
3. New Jersey Nets (0.61)
4. Los Angeles Clippers (0.61)
5. Milwaukee Bucks (0.61)
6. Philadelphia 76ers* (0.60)
7. Toronto Raptors ( 0.59)
8. Denver Nuggets** (0.59)
9. Golden State Warriors (0.58)
10. New Orleans Hornets* (0.58)
11. Memphis Grizzlies (0.57)
12. Detroit Pistons* (0.57)
13. Atlanta Hawks* (0.57)
14. Minnesota Timberwolves (0.57)
15. Cleveland Cavaliers** (0.57)
16. Miami Heat* (0.56)
17. Boston Celtics* (0.56)
18. Charlotte Bobcats (0.56)
19. Indiana Pacers (0.55)
20. Chicago Bulls* (0.55)
21. Portland Trail Blazers* (0.55)
22. Oklahoma City Thunder (0.55)
23. Sacramento Kings (0.55)
24. Utah Jazz* (0.54)
25. Houston Rockets* (0.54)
26. Phoenix Suns (0.53)
27. New York Knickerbockers (0.53)
28. Dallas Mavericks* (0.52)
29. Orlando Magic** (0.51)
30. San Antonio Spurs* (0.50)

* Made the playoffs
**Still in the playoffs

There were some definite surprises to me and good and bad teams are intermingled throughout. Seven of the sixteen playoff teams were in the top half of the list. Not even the majority of the top sixteen teams this season were in the upper half in terms of field goals-to-assist ratio. However, three of the four remaining teams in the playoffs (LAL, DEN, CLE, ORL) are in the top half with the Lakers having the second best ratio overall.

The only team with a better field goal-to-assist ratio than the Lakers was the Washington Wizards. I know, I know — the entire list just lost complete credibility. But the ratio is not meant to perfectly rank the teams from top to bottom. It is simply meant to give another colored lens through which to compare teams and analyze the game. All teams are not created equally. Actually though, the Wizards do play extremely unselfish, albeit awful, basketball.

Look at the Orlando Magic, who come in at twenty-ninth place. Objectively, they are a great team and have a legitimate title shot this season and for years to come but their field goal-to-assist ratio is bad. Does that mean that their ball movement is bad?

No, they have plenty of decent ball handlers at all positions and an unselfish group of players. Blessed with incredible talent at the five, they don’t need a lot of ball movement. Their team runs lots of isolations for Dwight Howard on the low block in order to exploit any man who is abandoned to try and guard the beast by themselves. If they double (or triple) Superman, they open up the perimeter shooters and Orlando capitalizes (that’s when they earn their assists).

No matter how much we wish the opposite, there is no one recipe for a successful team. However, effective ball movement is often a hallmark of a championship caliber squad and three out of the four teams in the Conference Finals rank above average in terms of field goal-to-assist ratio. A Lakers-Magic Finals would be especially interesting because it would pit two great, strategically different (in terms of field goal-to-assist ratio) teams against each other.