Basketball Free For All

With yet another NBA trade deadline coming and going, a lot of excitement and hope was generated among the fans and media.  Some teams were looking for that final piece that makes them championship material.  Others simply were looking for a player that helps them get into the postseason.  Lastly, there were a few who look at this time of the year as the highlight of the season as their team struggles to even be competitive on a nightly basis so might as well position themselves for the upcoming lottery.  Whatever the reasons, all fans hoped their team would have made a trade or two that improved future prospects.  Question is, how often can these deadline deals really be coined successful?

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Sorry for the delay guys, but there was a football game yesterday and it happened to include my favorite team – the New Orleans Saints.  With their monumental win, there had to be an equally impressive celebration on my part.  Laissez le bon temps rouler!

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Well we’re more than a quarter through the season so it’s probably going to get more difficult finding significantly helpful players if you participate in active leagues.  Instead, now is the time to keep a close eye on injuries.  When a player goes down or is just hobbling, it usually means something positive for at least one of his teammates.  Another item to keep in mind is that December 15th is the first day players signed this past off season can be dealt.  Between now and the trade deadline (February 18th), expect teams to maneuver to either put themselves in better position for the playoffs or wave the white flag and start thinking about next year.

Week Eight Schedules

Four Games: CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, NOH, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, TOR, WAS, UTA

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, GSW, MIA, MIL, PHX, SAS

Two Games: NONE

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Erick Dampier (C – 34%) – If your team needs help with rebounds or blocks, Dampier is your man.  Despite the glitch with his arm over a few weeks ago, he’s played extremely well when he’s gotten the minutes, as evidenced by the 35 rebounds the last two games.  Without a doubt, he appears to be a contract year player so take advantage of him the rest of this season.  Just keep in mind there will be matchups that limit him in certain games like against the Suns, Warriors or Knicks.

Jarrett Jack (PG/SG – 27%) – If your team is in need of guard help, you should pounce on Jack  immediately.  There is a good chance Jose Calderon might be missing a ton of time in the coming future as his hip is giving him problems.  If he does miss significant time, the Jack-of-all-trades will be a wonderful source of points, assists, 3’s and FT% – everything you want out of a starting PG.

Joel Przybilla (C – 36%) – It’s rare to have possibly two excellent center prospects sitting on the waiver wire, but that’s what you may have this week.  With just a 36% ownership, it’s obvious a number of fantasy managers haven’t jumped all over the Vanilla Gorilla upon hearing about Greg Oden going down for the rest of the year.  When Oden has missed time in the past, Joel has stepped up and contributed excellent boards and solid blocks.  Portland will lean on him heavily the rest of the year; consequently, so should you.

Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 23%) – So far this season, Brandon has done everything in his power to try to force himself off of most rosters.  However, he continues to be a tough habit to kick.  Why?  Opportunity.  Danny Granger is in the midst of missing anywhere from 4 to 6 weeks at the least.  Meanwhile, Mike Dunleavy is going to continue to slowly be worked back into starter-like usage.  Lastly, Dahntay Jones doesn’t possess a strong perimeter game, but more importantly, took a hard fall in last night’s game hurting his shoulder.  Although he says he’s fine, he could be slowed down enough this week whereby Rush emerges as a fantastic contributor during the upcoming 4 game week.

CJ Watson (PG/SG – 15%) – I’m confused by the low ownership of Mr. Watson.  I guess we need to call into Sherlock Holmes to solve this mystery, even though it doesn’t appear too mystifying.  Since getting over the swine flu, CJ Watson has played fantastic ball.  In the last 8 games, ziguana.com has him ranked as the 33rd best player as he’s put up solid numbers in all 9 standard categories.  With the minutes he’s been getting, it’s obvious Nellie and crew have an affinity for him so go ride this guy while he’s hot!

CUT LIST

Will Bynum (PG/SG – 31%) – The last few games, “Will the Thrill” has been sidelined with a bum ankle.  More troubling, with the Pistons on the verge of getting Richard Hamilton and Ben Gordon back and Rodney Stuckey finally hitting shots, Bynum’s minutes appear headed back to the low 20 range.  If you do the math, his nice run appears to be over.  Just keep him in mind the next time you hear about any injury/trade rumors regarding the Piston’s back court.

Nate Robinson (PG/SG – 36%) – If the 5 straight DNP’s haven’t helping you decide, let me tell you it’s time to move on.  The final straw appeared to be fraternizing with Dwight Howard prior to the start of a game against the Magic.  D’Antoni has recently stated he doesn’t plan on changing things either.  Why should he?  The Knicks are currently on their best winning streak since D’Antoni’s arrival in the Big Apple.  I don’t have to remind anyone that Nate should be picked up at the first signs of court time considering his fantasy explosiveness.

Al Thornton (SF/PF – 58%) – This drop is more in line with the thinking that owners should be preparing to cut ties with Al in the coming weeks.  Although Blake Griffin’s return has recently been delayed, Coach Dunleavy has expressed he might be the teams new starting forward.  If Camby doesn’t get traded, that should spell the end for Thornton’s significance in standard leagues.

WATCH LIST

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 5%) – It’s a shame the Israeli sensation can’t get off the watch list, but the depth of the Sacramento Kings is to blame.  Regardless, he should continue to be an asset for points, 3’s, FG% and rebounds.  Lately his defensive numbers have vanished, but I expect him to start contributing in these areas again considering his length and style of play.  The big question mark is the inevitable return of Kevin Martin, but worry about that when the time comes.

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 9%) – “Pyscho T”  appears to have carved a consistent role off the Pacers bench.  The last 3 games, he’s averaged over 17 points, 7 boards and 1.6 steals.  Think DeJuan Blair here because low minutes (low 20s) won’t kill his value.  This guy gets it done and he could help you if you’re pressed for forward production.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (SF/PF – 4%) – Usually when you’re one of the coaches favorites and get over 30 minutes a game, you’re worth owning in standard leagues.  However, this Prince isn’t the case.  He is the Bucks no glory guy where he’ll play tough defense and bring fantastic intensity – too bad that rarely translates well for fantasy purposes.  However, despite this, he’s bound to fall into some numbers.  Deep leaguers should definitely considering owning him, but standard leagues should probably just pay attention to whether he can get into any kind of groove regarding any type of production in coming games.

Luke Ridnour (PG – 39%) – There is no other explanation other than Luke has found the force.  Through more than the quarter of this season, he just can’t miss as evidenced by the 51.8 FG%.  His previous season high?  43.3%.  The reason he’s on the watch list though is playing time.  As the Bucks have gotten healthier, his minutes have dropped measurably (under 18 the last 4 games).  Most players can’t do a whole lot with limited time so expect Luke to follow suit shortly.

Martell Webster (SG/SF – 10%) – I’m kind of getting tired about writing about this guy, but due to the rash of Portland injuries, he’s borderline worth owning in standard leagues.  He’s semi-capable of doing a lot of things:  scoring, 3’s, rebounds and defensive stats, but, for whatever reason, he can’t do any of them consistently.  Perhaps someone/something will get through to him where that’ll change, however, don’t hold your breath as I expect his maddening play to continue.

STAY THE COURSE

Mario Chalmers (PG – 65%) – Admittedly Mario hasn’t found his groove for much of the entire first quarter of the season, but don’t give up hope.  I expect Coach Spo’ to attempt to get him going as the season progresses plus Rio will probably stop getting into so much foul trouble early on in games.  His outside jumper is much more efficient this season and with no real challengers to his skill set, Chalmers will continue to be given significant time.

Boris Diaw (SF/PF – 77%) – The arrival of Stephen Jackson has perhaps put Diaw into a noticeable funk, as evidenced by a drop in his numbers across the board.  It’s not too surprising that his usage would suffer, but don’t make too much out of this in such a small sample size.  First and foremost, realize that he’s currently in the midst of a significant slump as his shot hasn’t been falling.  Considering the Bobcats have no other decent options at PF his minutes will continue to be strong so just ride this out.

COMING BACK FROM INJURY

Plonden’s mentions of Yi Jianlian (PF – 1%) and Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 40%) still apply.  Also, now is the time to probably grab Jameer Nelson (PG – 66%) if he happens to be available.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jose Juan Barea (PG – 5%) – Recently, Mr. Barea has supplanted Rodrigue Beaubois in the Maverick’s starting lineup.  Prior to that, he had a 3 game stretch of non-existent play so it’s conceivable another owner let him go.  Considering Howard’s still coming back from injury and the Coach’s penchant for Jose, he could be useful in the short term for some points, 3’s, assists and steals.

Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 4%) – Really wanted to put “Buckets” on the watch list, but considering that many deep leaguers probably have recently let him go, I wanted him in this section of the article.  Thornton has a 4 game week coming up and his shot has recently returned.  I expect at least solid points and 3’s out of him, but look for more.  Chris Paul has been enamoured with this kid since he was drafted and is recently trying to get him to do more – rebound, drive to the basket, etc.  Hopefully this translates into better boards, steals and a more meaningful FT% in the near future.

Damien Wilkins (SG/SF – 1%) – If Ryan Gomes‘ ankle/knee injury last night forces him to miss any time, Damien looks to be the beneficiary.  He’ll give a little bit of everything, but most likely it’ll be short lived as Gomes’ injury didn’t appear to be serious.

Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 1%) – Almost forgot to add this guy – thanks for the reminder Andrew!  Recently, Wright has gotten solid run for a few reasons.  One, Quentin Richardson continues to miss time due to injury.  Two, Wright seems to have improved his play including an improved jumper and better decision making.  He may be indeed be worth a speculative add if you have the roster space.

Of all of this season’s early story lines, the big constants have been Golden State’s descent into the abyss and Chicago swingman John Salmons‘ poor shooting. Fantasy managers that drafted him expected efficient scoring and across the board production. Instead, owners have been rewarded with a roto-crippling field goal percent of .317 through the Bulls’ first nine games. If Salmons were to keep shooting at this clip for the entire season, it would easily qualify as a career worst for him.

With owners stuck with less than what they bargained for from their middle-round pick (average draft position of 73.7 in Yahoo! leagues), each manager must evaluate their situation and decide what course of action should be taken. For owners lucky enough not to have drafted John, they are left wondering whether he is a nice buy low target or whether he should be treated like he has the H1N1.

Throughout his career, nothing has ever been given to Salmons and he has hung around the league until injuries opened up increased PT. And with an increased role, he truly broke out and took the fantasy world by storm becoming a fast favorite for those lucky enough to snag him off the waiver wire. In casual NBA circles, Salmons’ rise to prominence, like many of his young teammates, was the epic Celtics-Bulls first round playoff series of 2008-09 that will go down as one of the greatest of all time.

With a basketball resume spanning eight seasons in the NBA, Salmons’ production is a relatively known quantity (or at least we thought it was), previously providing sneaky-good roto contributions that was good for 50th overall in per game value according to Basketball Monster and 53rd in per game value according to Ziguana. His cumulative value was also top notch at 34th according to BBM and 33rd according to Ziguana. Last season, his per-36 minute averages were 17.6 points on .472/.830 percent shooting, 1.5 threes (on .417 percent shooting), 4.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. When managers spent a eighth round pick on average on Salmons, those were the numbers they expecting in return.

But what went wrong? And more importantly, will he turn it around in time to salvage the season?

For Salmons, the situation is complex and there are various competing theories for what could be causing his shooting woes. In his case, there probably isn’t one right answer but instead a combination of contributing factors and competing theories that provide insight as to why Salmons has been shooting so poorly this season.

Let’s dive right in, analyze and discuss how each of them affect John’s outlook for the remainder of the season.

Theory One: Baby Watch

Salmons definitely had an interesting offseason dealing with a sore groin that dates back to the aforementioned epic Celtics playoff series. In addition, Salmons also dealt with the birth of his daughter. If you are wondering whether the birth of Salmons’ child could really be a contributing factor to his poor shooting, take a look at an NBC Sports player update blurb posted during the offseason.

John Salmons missed Friday’s game due to the birth of his child. He will rejoin the team on Sunday. This birth has been lingering for weeks and he can now focus on the Bulls now that it’s over. Congratulations, John. Now let’s play ball.

Source: NBA Sports

Lacking focus during the offseason can have negative effects at the beginning of the season as a player will have to play catch-up or struggle with things that he should have worked on when games didn’t matter. If this were the case, you would expect to see his shooting percentages down across the board, which is exactly the case with Salmons.

Those of you not buying the argument that the birth of a child could be that much of a distraction obviously don’t have any children or don’t know anyone with kids. Don’t worry; you’ll see for yourself one day. Managers that buy into this theory should hang on to Salmons if they own him or try to buy low, as he is bound to turn it around eventually once he regains his focus and conditioning.

Theory Two: Law of Averages

Another theory with a more optimistic outlook for John’s fantasy relevance centers around the law of averages, or more formally regression to the mean. In it’s most simplest form, regression to the mean can be boiled down to the idea that statistics like shooting percentages tend to gravitate towards their averages. In this case, Salmons has just had an extremely negative string of performances early on and each subsequent performance will tend to gravitate toward his career averages.

In this case, offseason distractions, roster changes and individual matchups so far this season don’t really matter. What matters are the numbers and Salmons’ established track record in eight seasons in the NBA. With a large enough sample size we can be confident that Salmons is a .444 percent field goal shooter, a .357 percent three point shooter and a .798 percent free throw shooter and not the .317/.267/.742 percent shooter we’ve seen so far this season.

Again, this time for dramatic purposes, the only really important things to examine with the theory of the law of averages is John’s current production versus his established averages. His numbers will return to normalcy at some point this season, salvaging John’s fantasy value and making him a roto-stud, as expected. For those that believe this, Salmons is a serious buy low that could pay huge dividends down the line.

Theory Three: Three Point Shooting

It’s no secret; the Bulls need help with their three point shooting this season. Desperately. For a little perspective, they rank 29th in three point attempts, 30th in threes made and 30th in three point shooting percentage. Officially, the Bulls are hands down the worst three point shooting team in the league this season. Compared to last year, the Bulls are significantly worse from behind the arc (23rd/22nd/6th, respectively, in 2008-09).

Which begs the question, what’s the main difference between last year’s three point shooting and this season’s?

Ben Gordon’s departure is the single biggest reason for the drop-off as a team. However, John Salmons’ and the other Bulls guards’ regression is another (John’s three point shooting percentage dropped from .415 in 2008-09 with Chicago to .267 this season while his attempts increased from 4.5 per game to 5.0 attempts). Chicago’s two other main rotation guards, sophomore point guard Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich, have not been getting it done from downtown either. Rose just doesn’t have three point range yet, as his .213 career and .000 current season three point shooting percentages attest. Hinrich, like Salmons, has been slumping so far this season shooting a career worst .267 from deep.

Gordon’s proficiency from downtown and propensity to launch bombs has been missed in Chicago thus far. However, none of Chicago’s guards have increased their attempts per game except for Salmons. Sometimes when players increase their shot attempts they not only take more shots but they also take more bad shots. It’s the opposite of the commonly quoted phrase letting the game come to you. When you ignore the common adage, overall efficiency suffers, which could be what is going on with John right now.

If you are persuaded by this theory, the Bulls as a team (ahem Coach Vinny Del Negro) will either need to find a solution to replace Gordon’s three point shooting or Salmons will need to reduce the number of threes he takes per game. Either one would help alleviate some of the pressure on Salmons’ shooting efficiency and make his fantasy line more palatable. Or so the Theory Three goes. According to this Theory, Salmons would be a buy low until Coach Del Negro or Salmons himself makes the necessary adjustments.

Theory Four: Different Shots

The fourth theory of interest is that Salmons is getting different looks than he was getting last year, with a negative result. The solution would be a coaching change that allowed John to get the looks he was seeing last season and the expected result would be a return to his efficient scoring ways. But does the evidence support this claim?

Examining shot data from 2008-09 and from this season, you can see a subtle shift in the pattern of shots Salmons is taking. His is relying on his jump shot more and is relying on his teammates to set him up more. At the same time, he is taking less attempts close to the basket and inside. These changes could all be expected to contribute to a lower field goal percentage. Looking at the shot data in a different way, what is the reason for the change in Salmons’ shot selection?

At 30 years of age, the changes evidenced in Salmons’ shot data could be the result of losing just a bit of his athleticism. Losing a step forces him to rely more heavily on his jumper, which was never John’s strongest part of his game, instead of slashing and getting higher percentage looks closer to the rim. Call this Theory 4.1. Or, the changes in Salmons’ shot selection could be a result of the emergence of Joakim Noah as a legitimate force in the paint, forcing Salmons farther away from the hoop into lower percentage looks. Call that Theory 4.2. The final variation is that John’s different looks could be solely Coach Del Negro’s fault, as he is ultimately the one who coordinates the Bulls offense and orchestrates the Bulls’ attack. For those keeping track that would be Theory 4.3.

If you buy 4.1, John’s atrophy is only going to accelerate so wait for Salmons’ next big game and see what you can get for him. Cut your losses, as they say. However, if you happen to be believers of Theory 4.2 or 4.3, coaching changes could allow Salmons to become an efficient scoring machine once again. The question then becomes, how much faith do you have in second year head coach, Vinny Del Negro, to make the necessary adjustments?

Theory Five: Higher Usage

The last, and probably most commonly cited theory, is the idea that Salmons is now forced to shoulder a heavier burden on offense with Gordon in Mo-Town and his efficiency has suffered as a result. With Gordon gone, Salmons has to take more shots on offense (increased usage) while simultaneously receiving greater defensive attention and pressure. Unfortunately for us, there are no freely-available statistics that track double teams or defensive pressure. Teams probably track statistics that could shed some light on this issue but they are not available to the public at this point. Not yet at least.

However, there are metrics that track usage percentage, which is simply an estimate of the number of team plays a player uses while he is on the floor. Contrary to the common wisdom, Salmons is actually shouldering a lighter load this season with a usage percentage of 19.8 percent down slightly from 20.2 last season. In this case, the numbers just don’t back up the theory that a higher usage is responsible for John’s decreased efficiency. And with no means of objectively testing the amount of defensive pressure Salmons is receiving this season, Theory Five is looking to be more or less debunked.

Conclusion

Of all the theories that attempt to explain Salmons’ poor efficiency, none clearly stand out as the definitive explanation for John’s shooting woes. More realistically, Salmons is suffering from the perfect storm of offseason distractions, team dynamics, roster changes, coaching issues, tough scheduling early on, confidence problems or a myriad of other possible contributing factors.

Of all the possible explanations, the higer usage theory is the one with the least amount of supporting evidence. Similar to the Elton Brand situation in Philadelphia, we as fantasy managers cannot know what is actually causing Salmons’ poor efficiency this season. As a result, the burden lies on each of us to examine each argument individually and weigh it against the facts. Based upon how you are swayed and by which argument, it totally changes whether you should cut your losses or try and buy low.

For years now the man behind the mask, Richard Hamilton, has been a staple of the overachieving Piston’s backcourt. In 2002, Hamilton was traded from Washington to Detroit in a package deal centered around Hamilton for Jerry Stackhouse. Ever since, he has been a vital cog in the Piston’s war machine, a team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals an amazing six years in a row after Rip’s arrival and won it all in 2003-04. Now after many productive years in Detroit, it seems that a tide of change is in the proverbial air.

Last season, we saw Hamilton’s backcourt running mate and trusted floor general, Chauncey Billups, get shipped out to Denver in exchange for Allen Iverson. Acquiring ‘the Answer’ was one of Piston’s President Joe Dumars’ attempts (he also fired head coach Flip Saunders) to reshape his elite roster into another Championship-caliber team to compete for years to come.

Well, we saw how that worked out. Now that the dust has finally settled from last season’s implosion, Hamilton has begun to (uncharacteristically) speak out about the A.I. situation and the team’s lack of strong leadership from the coaching position.

“It could have worked out,” said Hamilton. “I just thought the coach we had at the time (didn’t) put us in situations where we all could be at our best. When you don’t have that, it makes it difficult. All the guys are trying to figure it out on the floor, on the fly, rather than putting us in situations where we could be better.”

Source: The Detroit News

Hamilton is really going out on a limb here to backup Iverson for his troubled season last year in Detroit. Iverson took a lot of heat for all of the Piston’s shortcomings and was basically a scapegoat for the franchise (and Dumars) as they ran him out of town.

Hamilton bashes then head coach Michael Curry saying he failed to maximize the potential of the team by bringing both Iverson and he off the bench at various times throughout the season.This instead of allowing them to both start together in the backcourt from day one.

Rip is right for defending Iverson. He and A.I. starting together would have made quite a potent tandem. The fact that the Pistons were intent on developing Rodney Stuckey came at the expense of their All-Star and future Hall of Famer that was ready to contribute right away. Make no mistake, Stuckey is the future of the team and does need playing time to develop, but not at the expense of hindering your star player that you just traded for. Moreover, as it’s been widely rumored, someone promised AI a starting type of role. How did you expect he was going to react when he suddenly was tossed aside.

By taking Rip and Iverson away from their customary starting roles, Curry hurt their egos and caused them to compete against each other instead of the opposing teams. When they did share the court together personal agendas seemed to be the primary goal, as each player seemed intent to show what they could do and not what the team could do (for Iverson, this trait has followed him to his new team). The result was a roller coaster ride from start to finish resulting in a playoff appearance in which the Piston’s failed to win a game in the first round of the playoffs.

Now Rip, Ben Wallace and Tayshaun Prince are the sole remaining starters from their championship team in 2003-04. No, Chucky Atkins’ corpse doesn’t count. With the Piston’s bringing in younger talent, i.e. Ben Gordon, Will Bynum, Stuckey, Austin Daye and Charlie Villanueva, one has to wonder what the future holds for the aging Piston veterans.

The fact that Rip is speaking out could spell trouble for his relationship with the franchise. The team has relied and continues to rely heavily on Hamilton for all aspects of its offense. As evidence, his career usage percentage is 28th of all time. The Pistons have also been considerably better across the board with Hamilton on the floor. There is no doubt Rip has been a loyal soldier for D-Town and has been one of the primary stabilizing forces both on and off the court.

Despite all of this, you can’t help but get the feeling that Rip is on his way out of the Motor City sooner rather than later (by the trade deadline perhaps). His production has been very consistent for years, sporting strong career averages of 17.9 points per game on .454/.853 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 3.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.2 turnovers.  Stats like this would be attractive to a number of teams seeking an upgrade at the two guard position.

Offseason acquisition Ben Gordon is a younger shooting guard who is ready to move into the starting lineup and can easily supply Hamilton’s twenty points a game. Emerging guard Will Bynum could then fulfill Gordon’s role as instant offense off the bench, making Hamilton more or less expendable. If the Pistons can obtain a post presence or dynamic forward in return, the current crop of Pistons guards can certainly step up and fill Rip’s shoes.

Working against Rip changing addresses, however, are both his age (he will turn 32 next February) and his salary (he is scheduled to make over $11 million in 2010 and then $12.5 million per year through 2013) may make him less attractive to potential suitors. In these oh so tough economic times, contracts such as Rip’s are becoming harder and harder to move.

But his reputation as an upstanding citizen (he participates in numerous charity events and frequently donates to local youth campaigns for his hometown in Pennsylvania), and his abilities on the court will always provide a market for Hamilton. If the Piston’s decide to really strip the roster down and completely start anew, they will look to provide more time for the youth of the future (Stuckey, Bynum, Gordon) expect Rip to be one of the first players on the trading block.

He logged major minutes in the season opener but has been MIA ever since with . For as long as he remains a Piston, Rip should see steady minutes on the court. However, the only certain thing in Rip’s future is uncertainty as the Pistons continue their quest to remodel the franchise.

It is truly rare to be able to sense a catastrophic event before it happens. However, for those carefully attuned to the recent offseason developments in the NBA, Detroit seems poised on the brink of the abyss.

Talk about piling on. It’s no secret that Detroit is in trouble in these oh-so-tough economic times (median sale price for a house in Detroit these days is $8,000; and no, that number is not missing any zeroes).

But taking a step back and examining the moves the Pistons have made to assemble the 2009-10 Pistons, it is clear that the old Pistons are truly gone. With Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups gone, the perennial Eastern Conference Finalists have been forever changed, and most certainly for the worse.

It is understandable that Joe Dumars and the Pistons wanted change. After so much disappointment and so many letdowns following their 2004 NBA Championship, it was inevitable that they would overhaul their roster. But change for the sake of change is not improvement and that is exactly what the Pistons’ roster moves have felt.

The point of any change is to make the team better. Any roster move (applies to both fantasy and real life) that does not make the team better, either in the present or future, was a bad move.

So let’s break down the Pistons’ offseason moves to see if there is reason to believe this team has improved during the 2009 offseason.

Coaching Change

After a disappointing 2008-09 season, rookie head coach Michael Curry was canned in favor of another rookie head coach, John Kuester. But what do we know about John Kuester and can we expect his tenure to be different from Curry’s rookie season as a coach?

Kuester has a long track record as an assistant coach in the NBA, including working for Hall of Fame Head Coach Larry Brown on the Pistons’ 2004 championship squad and for Brown’s entire tenure as head coach in Philadelphia. More recently, Kuester worked with the Pistons’ Eastern Conference rival the Cleveland Cavaliers under head coach Mike Brown.

Kuester’s most recent, and most famous role was of Mike Brown’s offensive coordinator with the Cavaliers last season, a season that saw the team jump from 19th (and a very ugly 19th, at that) in offensive efficiency to fourth last season with Kuester joining Cleveland’s ranks.

Yes, the Cavaliers enjoyed a solid season from new addition Mo Williams, Lebron James improves, and the club also got a full year’s run out of Delonte West; but the shape of the Cleveland offense was markedly different with Kuester on board, something you couldn’t completely pin on personnel changes and internal development. Kuester had these guys in the right places.

Source: Yahoo!

No doubt about it, the 2008-09 Cavaliers were much better offensively than the 2007-08 version. That is a statistical fact. What is up for debate is how much of that is due to the continued development of Lebron James, how much is due to the addition of Mo Williams and first full season of Delonte West and how much is due to Kuester’s X’s and O’s.

Watching Cleveland’s offensive sets last season, basically every play revolved around putting the ball in Lebron’s hands and clearing out the lane. Lebron was the primary playmaker and rarely played off the ball, where his athleticism allows him to be deadly. Don’t underestimate the impact of the addition of Mo to the Cavalier’ success. With Williams on board, James had another guy he could trust to take big shots and initiate the offense instead of relying solely on himself.

One word is notably absent from discussions of Kuester’s assistant coaching gigs: defense. With all of his experience assisting Coach Larry Brown, you hope that Brown’s defensive philosophy has rubbed off on Kuester. For defense more so than any other factor is going to be the key to the fate of the Pistons’ 2009-10 season. And that is mainly due to the roster changes that were made over the last few months in Detroit.

Roster Changes

The current Detroit roster marks the start of the new era (i.e. end of the Rasheed Wallace era in Detroit).

Out: Rasheed Wallace; Allen Iverson; Antonio McDyess; Amir Johnson; Arron Afflalo; and Walter Herrmann.

In: Charlie Villanueva; Ben Gordon; Chris Wilcox; and Ben Wallace.
Rookies: Austin Daye; Deron Washington.

With all the changes, the depth chart looks fairly different from last season. (Not seeing Sheed on the Pistons roster just seems strange; beware).

PG: Rodney Stuckey, Will Bynum
SG: Richard Hamilton, Ben Gordon, Deron Washington
SF: Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye
PF: Charlie Villanueva, Jason Maxiell
C: Chris Wilcox, Kwame Brown, Ben Wallace

The main problem with the Pistons new makeup is that most of the players they lost were known to be decent defenders, especially Wallace and McDyess. And the players they took on, Villanueva,  Gordon and Wilcox, are not known for being great defenders (to be politically correct). But that is all opinion.

What do the numbers say?

In trying to compare the outgoing players, offensive and defensive efficiencies are useful for comparing players on different teams that play at different paces, which can skew raw statistics. Comparing the net difference between a player’s offensive efficiency (O-Rating) and defensive efficiency (D-Rating) to show their net impact on the court.

Looking at the minutes is very important when consulting statistics such as these because in general a small sample is much less reliable than a larger sample.  It’s probably wise to take any advanced statistics with a grain of salt for any player who logged less than a thousand minutes. Like most statistics, the bigger the sample size the better.

First take a look at the players the Pistons have added to the roster.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

And compare them to the outgoing players.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

On the face of it, the exchange of players seems like it would be a negligible difference (excluding players who played less than 1000 minutes last season). The incoming players are a combined +8 and the outgoing players are a combined +8 as well. Everything seems to be in perfect harmony, right?

Wrong.

There are two main reasons why: Ben Wallace and Chauncey Billups.

First, let’s deal with Big Ben. Wallace’s career is clearly on its last legs and thus he can be expected to play a rapidly diminishing role on the team as time progresses. As the single biggest positive on the incoming side, this means that the incoming +8 is actually skewed and is only positive solely because of Wallace.

The more bearish you are on Wallace’s future performance, the worse this exchange of players looks. To put it in perspective, the exchange made the Pistons defensively worse off in the medium and long term (-4 excluding Big Ben).

Continuing with the long term perspective, let’s revisit the franchise altering trade of Billups for Iverson. Yes, I know McDyess was a part of that trade but he ended up back with the Pistons after negotiating a buyout and returning to D-Town. So this trade was Billups for Iverson, straight up.

Using mathematical properties, we can substitute Billups for Iverson in the outgoing chart.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

With the Billups effect accounted for as well, suddenly the outgoing players are a +20 (again excluding players with less than 1000 minutes) and the incoming players are either a +8 or -4 depending upon how you view the impact of Ben Wallace for both next season and the future. This gives the entire transaction a net impact of either a -12 overall or a shocking -24.

The Verdict

On paper, it appears that the Pistons’ recent makeover has actually made them worse off overall. The big x-factor will be rookie head coach John Kuester. Teams can overcome having poor defensive players on them through superb coaching. In some cases, however, the defensive liabilities are just too great to overcome. This might be one of those cases. But make no mistake, Kuester has a chance to be a truly great coach one day.

Regardless, it is clear that the 2009-10 Pistons have huge potential. Train wreck potential (see also Memphis Grizzlies, 2009-10). For the Pistons faithful, let’s just hope that Joe Dumars hasn’t taken the D out of Detroit once and for all.

People are naturally more comfortable with the familiar. Whether it be taking the same route to work every morning or watching your favorite movie fifty times, people like things to be predictable. I would have to guess that NBA players have the same comfort levels that we possessors of average athletic ability hold as well. They are not super heroes or somehow above the rest of us (although sometimes the media and the public’s perception points to this).

So why does it seem like there is such a lack of true loyalty among NBA players to one’s franchise, fans and city?

There used to be true loyalty among players in the league years ago. Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul Jabaar, Tim Duncan and Larry Bird all won multiple championships with one team. They stayed around through free agency and rebuilding periods and they got it done for their respective teams time and time again. Today it seems that there isn’t quite the same sense of devotion.

Players are too quick to bolt for a rival team if the pasture is greener on the other side (greener more often than not means more money). Think about all of the time, resources and effort a team has to put into a player that it views as the future of the franchise. The team is completely invested in the player from the scouting period, to the point when they sign their contract. Teams want that player to feel comfortable and at home in their city. They should feel important and desired and that is why NBA teams pull out all the stops when it comes to courting and retaining a franchise player.

Too often today teams and their loyal fans are being spurned by the same athletes they once cheered for. Take Hedo Turkoglu for example. After leading his Orlando Magic all the way to the franchise’s best season and a trip to the Finals, what does Hedo do in the off season? He leaves his championship caliber team and signs a deal (tentative) with the Toronto Raptors.

Why leave a team that obviously wants him and one that is in much better position to contend for a title than Toronto? It has to be money. The almighty dollar, especially in today’s economy, seems to have more pull than ever.

Ben Gordon has spent his entire career with the Chicago Bulls. After reportedly rejecting a 5 year $50 million deal from Chicago last season, he signed with the Pistons for 5 years and $55 million. Why not stay with the team that drafted you and allowed you to showcase your unique skill set instead of acting like a mercenary and leaving for which ever squad can pay you only a few million more?  I do realize it is disgusting and totally ridiculous to say “only a few million more,” but for an NBA player and their tax bracket it is only a drop in the bucket.

Trevor Ariza, after winning it all with the Lakers this year, bolts for Houston. Ron Artest took the Rockets farther in the playoffs than they had been in years. After Yao Ming went down, the Rockets were in need of someone to step in and take control of the young cast of talented role players they had assembled. Why not offer to make Artest one of your franchise cornerstones? Well you can’t if he signs with the Lakers, which turned out to be the case.

Dwayne Wade has been in the news recently talking about his future in Miami, or potential lack thereof. Wade basically stated that he would like to hold off on signing a multi-year extension with the Heat until he knows that they are working to put themselves in position to win a championship. Wade wants to make sure he is playing for a team that can contend for a title every year and is not just content to make the playoffs as a fifth seed.

I completely get this. Wade is entering the prime of his career, he can completely dominate a game and he wants to make sure his skills aren’t wasted on an average team. This guy is a winner and I respect his stance, but I am hoping he stays in Miami and wins another ring or two. It would be nice to see that level of commitment to a team that he once led to a championship and now has the opportunity to build a dynasty with. That is assuming the Heat do their part and bring in some talent.

With a number of the league’s brightest stars (Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar’e Stoudemire, for example) potentially going into free agency next season where will their loyalties fall? Will it be with their currnet team or will they follow the dollar to another city and fan base? I can only hope to see some of these players stay with the current teams and build a legacy in the tradition of some of the games biggest stars of years past.

To the Charlotte Bobcats faithful (if such a group actually exists): be afraid. Be very afraid. The rumor mill has unrestricted free agent Allen Iverson re-uniting with Hall of Fame Coach Larry Brown in Charlotte to make one more run at winning an elusive championship ring. As a result of last season’s failed Detroit experiment and Iverson’s attitude throughout, he is quickly becoming the league’s number one pariah.

Former Piston Allen Iverson needs a team, and ex-Pistons coach Larry Brown needs a scorer. Just think, they could reunite.

Seven years after his famous rant in Philadelphia during a feud with Brown over missing practice, Iverson is set to become unrestricted free agent. Brown is coaching the low-scoring Bobcats, and Iverson was recently spotted in Charlotte. It’s fueled speculation Iverson, who had a difficult season in Detroit, could be paired with Brown again. Iverson’s agent, Leon Rose, said his client would be willing to play for Brown again.

“I love Allen,” Brown said.

Source: The Detroit News

If last season proved anything about AI, its that he can completely destroy team chemistry and alter the fate of franchises. Simply compare last season’s Detroit Pistons against the Denver Nuggets. Granted, that comparison provides as much insight into the character of Chauncey Billups as it does Iverson so take it with a grain of salt.

But what does Iverson really have to offer the Bobcats?

He is a definite liability on defense but would be surrounded by defensive-oriented players (in typical Coach Brown fashion) that can help cover for AI. Last season, the Bobcats struggled to put points on the board, as they were 27th in offensive efficiency (compared to 7th in defensive efficiency). So on the surface Iverson seems to address Charlotte’s biggest deficiency. But is he the right type of scorer the Bobcats need?

Iverson is not the Answer for Charlotte. He is a 33 year old undersized shooting guard in a point guard’s body who has entered the post-prime stage of his career. He can no longer be “the man” on any team and yet is at the same time unwilling to accept any other role. To cap it all off, AI has always been a high volume, low efficiency scorer (career field goal percentage of .425), which is not ideal when paired with adeclining abilities.

So, is Iverson worth the gamble?

No. Even considering the fact that there will not be as much interest in Iverson this offseason, his chemistry-disrupting potential is way too high for a team with as much talent as Charlotte has. This summer’s free agent class has a few other options that make more sense for the Bobcats if they are looking for instant offense. Ben Gordon or Carlos Boozer are both guys that have proven that they can score over twenty points a game.

Hell, if the Bobcats are committed to signing an undersized, inefficient guard just sign Nate Robinson (career field goal percentage of .427) or Jamal Crawford (career field goal percentage of .404). At least they are younger and have better attitudes (they might even show up to every practice too).