Basketball Free For All

I compiled a quick list of some guys who might be of use in the short term to help your teams this week.  Hopefully everyone is already aware of guys like Toney Douglas, Jrue Holiday and Anthony Tolliver.  Good luck!

Matt Bonner (PF, C – 7%) – His role has increased a bit of late so he could help the deeper league team in a few cat’s but mainly 3’s.

James Harden (PG, SG – 26%) – see Phil’s article.

Chris Hunter (SF/PF/C – 2%) – As Golden State’s only true center still standing, expect Chris to see decent time down the stretch.  On his productive nights, expect points (on great FG%), boards and an occasional block.

Serge Ibaka (C – 5%) – He’s playing with a lot of confidence right now and can help you with boards/blocks.

Kyle Lowry (PG/SG – 9%) – As his ankle has strengthened, he’s gone back to being more effective again.  In addition, Battier continues to miss time to a hyper extended knee.  Kyle will help with points, assists and steals.

Jason Maxiell (PF/C – 23%) – Don’t let his last game scare you off as he got into foul trouble.  By many accounts, Ben Wallace is done so Max will get a lot of run putting up great boards with decent points/blocks.

Wesley Matthews (PG/SG – 12%)/CJ Miles (SG/SF – 13%) – Points, 3’s and steals available here but expectations should be tempered a bit as Andrei Kirilenko is slated to return Friday.

Darko Milicic (PC/C – 12%) – Over his last 4 games, he’s averaging just over 30 minutes.  Boards/blocks are good with decent points and FG%.

James Singleton (SF/PF – 8%) – Flip just stated he’s going to be inserted into the starting lineup.  He’s a rebounding machine but can help in points and defensive categories on certain nights.  Must add for those looking for boards as he’s got a very fantasy friendly schedule down the stretch.

Bill Walker (SG/SF – 8%) – Juicy matchup against PHO and going forward the Knicks play 10 games with Wilson Chandler still sidelined and Tracy McGrady always ready to go down.  With decent run, he’s usually good for points, 3’s and steals.

Earl Watson (PG – 19%) -  TJ Ford continues to miss games so Earl could be a good source of assists/steals with a 3 or two.  However, do so as a last resort as Ford is slated to be back any day now.

Reggie Williams (SF – 19%) – Nellie loves anyone who can put the ball in the hoop and currently Reggie is converting at a very efficient clip (sorry Anthony Morrow owners).  Get his scoring (on good percentages), 3’s and rebounds while he’s still hot!

When discussing the best shooters in the game today, two names are commonly mentioned more often than others: Steve Nash and Ray Allen. Both are proficient from virtually anywhere on the court, including from the free throw line and from downtown. They are often in the games during clutch situations and both players have an impressive portfolio of clutch shots on their resume. Even more telling, both players are often heralded for their jump shots by coaches and analysts alike.

Continue reading

Week Eight brought it’s fair share of drama and story lines on the court. On the injury front, a group of players eaither came back from injury early or announced their intention to return from injury early (see below). On the bizarre injury front, Dirk Nowitzki’s elbow had an appointment with five of Carl Landry’s teeth, with Dirk walking away with pieces of Carl’s teeth lodged in his elbow. That injury sounds excruciating for both players, who were both coincidentally having phenomenal seasons.Hopefully these guys make it back from injury quickly and resume their productive ways on the court.

HOUSEKEEPING

Basketball Free For All is looking for a few good men or women to join the crew. Specifically, we are looking for new writers to contribute on a weekly basis. If you read BFFA regularly you should know the skills required: knowledge of statistics, general basketball knowledge, fantasy basketball knowledge, quality writing skills, a willingness to question commonly held views and being awesome in general. If you are interested in inquiring further, shoot me an email at plonden [at] basketballfreeforall.com (obviously replacing [at] with @ before you send the email) and we’ll talk specifics. Also, we would obviously welcome others with unique skills (web skills, programming, statistics, marketing, business, whatever) who are interested in contributing to the Free For All so just inquire if you are interested.

WEEK NINE SCHEDULES

Two Games: CHA, MEM, NJN, NOR, PHI, TOR

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, LAL, MIA, MIL, MIN, NYK, OKC, ORL, POR, SAC, UTA, WAS

Four Games: CLE, HOU, IND, LAC, PHO, SAS

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Joel Przybilla (C – 39%) As a starter, Przybilla has averaged 5.7 points on .500/.625 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.5 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers. His offensive efficiency has nose-dived this season but his defense is just as good if not better than last season. His mass alone will keep him on the court this season so give Ghostface Przybilla a look for blocks and boards.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 26%) If one thing is certain in Philly, it is that Speights is the type of big man that excels in Eddie Jordan’s offensive system. Speights has picked up right where he left off since returning from his MCL injury. Over his past three games, Marreese has posted extremely solid averages of 19.7 points on .468/.682 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 7.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers, effectively crushing the previously burgeoning fantasy value of Samuel Dalembert, who played 14.7 minutes per game during the same span (although foul trouble played a role as well). Your window to sell high on Dally has been effectively closed until he gets moved or an injury to another Sixers big man occurs. The only downside is the Philadelphia only plays two games next week, although it is mitigated by the fact that Speights is an excellent pickup for the long-term.

C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 18%) Over the past two weeks, Watson has been a top fifty player, which has been extremely surprising. The odds are greatly stacked against C.J. being able to produce at such a high level for the remainder of the season, as the Warriors offense is run almost exclusively through Monta Ellis. For evidence, check out Watson’s usage percentage of a mere 14.0 percent compared to Ellis’ 29.4 usage percentage. As a result, Watson’s steals (1.5 per game this season and 2.0 per game over the past two weeks) make up the lion’s share of his fantasy value so give Watson an add if you are looking for a low turnover steal specialist.

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 13%) So far, Casspi has proven to be one of the early surprises of the 2009 NBA Draft for the Sacramento Kings. Based on his recent strong play, Omri has moved into the Kings’ starting lineup and looks to remain there at least until Kevin Martin returns from his wrist injury. For an idea of what his numbers would look like if given extended burn, check his per-36 minute averages of 17.3 points on .513/.577 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 5.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. As the season has progressed, Casspi has also improved each month from the free throw line, meaning his early struggles from the line were probably confidence-related and that we can expect continued improvement over time.

Jose Juan Barea (PG – 12%) In his fourth season in the NBA, Barea is posting career-highs across the board. Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle has noticed, increasing J.J.’s minutes largely at the expense of rookie guard Rodrigue Beaubois, who has the physical tools to carve out a nice role for himself in this league one day. Over the past four games, Barea has averaged 16.3 points on .553/.857 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers per game. Players that are putting up over fifteen points per game don’t wallow on the wire for very long so grab J.J. and hope his hot hand can continue.

WATCH LIST

Jerryd Bayless (PG – 9%) In true Arizonan fashion, Bayless dropped the best line of his short NBA career against the Phoenix Suns last Thursday, while doing his part to push the Suns winless streak on TNT to 17 games. On Thursday, Bayless put up 29 points in a game that ended up being decided by only two points. Without a doubt, he is a big part of why the short-handed Blazers upset the Suns. The following game, Bayless saw his minutes increased to over thirty minutes against Orlando. Most notably, Jerryd played more minutes than Steve Blake. In short, Bayless is on his way to becoming a big time scorer. For reference, check his per-36 minute stats of 21.7 points on .530/.764 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 3.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks and 1.9 turnovers. The one thing that jumps out is that Bayless has poor defensive statistics and subpar threes for a guard. This combination does not bode well for fantasy value, as elite guards usually need to do more than simply score in order to maintain their fantasy value.

Kyle Lowry (PG/SG – 8%) Lowry qualifies for the watch list this week based upon his monster line against the Mavericks on Friday even though he put up a stinker on Saturday. Lowry’s line was so impressive, it bears repeating here to marvel. With Landry out with the aforementioned dental injury, Lowry stepped up and dropped 26 points on .615/.778 percent shooting, 3 threes, 6 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 steals, 1 block and 2 turnovers. If only there were some way to predict when these random epic fantasy lines were going to occur? That, my friends, is the proverbial fantasy holy grail, the pursuit of which is a quixotic mission. Just remember to run to the wire and pickup Lowry if Aaron Brooks ever misses significant time.

Earl Watson (PG – 4%) Watson has moved ahead of T.J. Ford on the Pacers depth chart, stealing the starting point guard honors from Ford on Saturday night. With the Pacers struggling this season and missing franchise player, Danny Granger, lineup shakeups were to be expected. Monitor the situation closely over the next week and move Watson from the watch list to your roster should the upward trend on his minutes continue and he produces in his time on the floor. That second caveat was necessary after Earl’s 3 point, 5 rebound, 5 assist showing on Saturday night. Worst case scenario, the Pacers point guard spot will be a time share with Ford and Watson killing each other’s value.

Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 3%) Over the past few games Wright has finally started to turn his potential into production. Wright has been (incorrectly) picked as a breakout player over the last couple of years but has been derailed by a series of injuries. Recently, however, Wright has finally been putting everything together and has been seeing increasing minutes as a result. Over the past five games, Wright has played 27.8 minutes per game posting averages of 13.2 points on .583/1.00 percent shooting, 1.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.4 turnovers. Wright has been doing two things on the court that really make coaches happy, notably playing active defense and taking care of the ball.

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 26%) Captain Kirk has never been the most efficient scorer on the floor, but he certainly has never had such a terrible shooting season like he has this year. However, Hinrich’s early troubles this season were strongly related to his thumb injury from November and are thus not just a regular shooters’ slump. With the Bulls in desperate need of three point shooting (28th in three point percentage, 30th in both three pointer made and attempted), Hinrich should earn his keep from downtown, as he is a career .377 percent shooter from behind the arc. Don’t expect elite fantasy production from Kirk at this point but more outings similar to his game against the Hawks on Saturday night are on the horizon: 13 points on .556/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 0 turnovers.

C.J. Miles (SG/SF – 3%) Miles has had an up and down season thus far, which started terribly after tearing a ligament in his thumb. While he was out, rookie guard Wesley Matthews stepped up and played well for the Jazz causing speculation that Miles’ starting job was lost for good. However, Miles recently showed up and played an instrumental role for the Jazz in securing a win against the Bobcats on Saturday night. Miles dropped 20 points on .500/.500 percent shooting, 3 threes, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks and 1 turnover. Most notably, Miles topped the 30 minute mark for the first time this season with the undrafted Matthews only seeing seven minutes of game time despite getting the starting nod. With another performance or two like last night’s, Miles will be scooped off the wire in most leagues.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jared Jeffries (SG/SF – 3%) Like Chuck Hayes at the start of this season, Jeffries’ fantasy line is not fashionable but rather purely functional. JJ is a nice player that is essentially a defensive specialist, especially if you are punting points or are already dominant in points and can carry a negative contributer for scoring. As he is being showcased for potential trades, Jeffries has logged 33.3 minutes per game over the past two weeks and has averaged 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks over the same span. Again, Jared should only be added in deep leagues that are looking to beef up the defensive categories.

Goran Dragic (PG/SG – 1%) Second year Slovenian point guard Goran Dragic looks to finally be getting comfortable playing basketball at the NBA level. In the past week, Dragic played the best basketball of his career against the Suns’ arch-nemesis (setting a career high 18 points against the team that drafted him), the San Antonio Spurs. Most impressively, Dragic played tough defense holding Spurs shooting guard Manu Ginobili to only seven points while also visibly frustrating him. With the Suns making a long home stand and being the only undefeated team at home in the NBA, Dragic should see increased burn during both close games and garbage time.

Serge Ibaka (C – 1%) Ibaka’s minutes are trending upward as this season progresses, as he has really impressed Coach Scott Brooks with his hustle when given playing time. Over the past couple of games, Ibaka has been given nearly 23 minutes per game and has responded with a decent fantasy line of 11 points on .786/0.00 percent shooting (on zero free throw attempts), 0.0 threes, 6.5 rebounds, 0.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Ibaka is largely specialized in the big man categories but could really pile up the blocks if given enough PT (2.6 blocks per 36 minutes). For deep dynasty leagues, Ibaka is a player that should probably be rostered at this point based upon his potential alone.

Jonathan Bender (SF/PF – 0%) Taken fifth overall out of high school in the 1999 NBA Draft, Bender has widely been recognized as one of the biggest draft busts in the NBA as knee injuries cut his career short. Nearly four years later, Bender is back and is playing for the New York Knicks. In his first game back in the NBA, Bender put up 9 points on .500/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, o steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. With zero percent ownership, Bender is available everywhere and should be monitored to see if he can flourish and make the cut for Coach Mike D’Antoni’s short rotation.

COMING BACK FROM INJURY

Lou Williams (PG/SG – 41%) He’s baaack and way ahead of schedule to boot. In his first game back he played over 23 minutes although admittedly showing his rust on the court. It was reported that Williams lost a few pounds while on his liquid diet (courtesy of Antawn Jamison). Look for Williams to return to the starting unit soon and get back on track with his breakout season. Based upon his early season play, he should not be on a single waiver wire.

Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 39%) TT is targeting a December 26th return to game action after fracturing his arm in a weightlifting accident. He is slated to return to practice today so pay attention to any updated timelines in the next couple of days.

Leandro Barbosa (PG/SG – 53%) Merry Christmas! Barbosa is planning on returning to game action on December 25th against the Clippers, nearly a full month after he severely sprained his ankle against the Raptors. Barbosa was finally starting to string a few solid games together when he went down so look for him to resume his strong play sometime in early January.

Yi Jianlian (PF – 21%) Out since early November with an MCL injury, Yi is slated to return to game action this Wednesday against Minnesota. His retun was delayed a couple of weeks after a vicious Sean Williams elbow during practice that required 50 stitches. Hopefully, the elbow was a blessing in disguise as it kept Jianlian sidelined a bit longer and made sure his MCL injury was fully healed to prevent further injury. Yi is cruising dangerously close to earning the “injury-prone” label, which is stigma that is not easily erased.

STAY THE COURSE

Tyson Chandler – (C – 46%) It’s hard to understate how disappointing Tyson has been this season. His season averages of 6.5 points on .490/.727 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 6.8 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. The jump in turnovers was expected, as he is no longer playing with the game’s best point guard, Chris Paul. However, no one was expecting such a dramatic drop-off in almost every other category. Recently, he pulled down twelve or more rebounds in two of his past three games. After being called out by his teammates for his lack of heart and lack of effort, look for Chandler to respond to the challenge and pickup his subpar play.

Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 53%) Widely touted as a breakout player or sleeper before this season started, New Jersey’s Courtney Lee has had an unusual season playing for the league’s worst team. Don’t give up on this young swingman and expect his season averages of 11.0 points on .381/.810 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.0 turnovers to increase. Lee’s shooting efficiency has suffered greatly from his move from a deep and talented team to a thin and awful team has caused opposing defenses to turn greater attention to forcing him to take bad shots. However, his low turnovers coupled with nice steal numbers have made Lee a decent options for teams that can handle his poor shooting.

Anthony Morrow (SG/SF – 62%) One of the league’s best pure shooters has suddenly lost his stroke. Since missing time for a funeral, A-Mo has gone absolutely frigid from the field. On the season, he is shooting a respectable .487 from the field,  a scorching .462 from downtown and an elite .900 from the free throw line. Morrow has serious .500/.400/.900 potential. Over the past six games, however, Anthony has shot a miserable .268/.292/1.00. Hey, at least his free throws are still falling. Being a pure shooter, Morrow will come around doing what he does best: hoisting ‘em at the rim.

CUT LIST

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 12%) Psycho T has proven a lot in his short NBA career. Most importantly, he has proven to the doubters that he will be an effective player at the NBA level one day. However, he has proven that he has not developed the go-to moves necessary to be an efficient scorer in the Association. These moves will come in time, as Hansbrough has proven to be a relentless worker during his tenure at North Carolina and with the Pacers. However, outside of teams that are punting field goal percentage, Tyler’s .372 percent shooting from the field on 8.2 attempts per game is too crippling for widespread roster consideration.

Anderson Varejao (PF/C – 47%) Sideshow Bob’s fantasy value tends to go the way of his defensive production. AV’s real life and fantasy value never has and never will be predicated on his offensive production. Instead, his value comes from boards, blocks and steals. Recently, his rebounds have stayed somewhat stable but his blocks and steals have dried up, crippling his worth to fantasy teams.

MYSTERY MAN

Mario Chalmers (PG – 61%) This week sees another first for the Preview post: the Mystery Man selection. And there is no better player to be the inaugural Mystery Man than Miami’s Mario Chalmers. Heading into this season after a surprisingly strong rookie season that saw Chalmers post top-75 per game value and nearly top-50 cumulative value, Chalmers has disappointed virtually across the board. A sophomore slump, perhaps? Not only has he failed to progress in multiple categories, but he has actually regressed as well, most notably in steals (from 2.0 last season to 1.5 this season), which accounted for the vast majority of Mario’s fantasy value last season. As a result, Chalmers has recently been demoted to the second unit and his play has even caused speculation that Mario is not the point guard of the future for Miami. The next few games and weeks will be pivotal for Chalmer’s fantasy value this season so this is definitely a very interesting situation to monitor. How this position battle between Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo plays out remains a mystery for now.

Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

Legends are born the same way fortunes are made in basketball: through clutch late game heroics. Among active NBA players, Hedo Turkoglu has a reputation for being a late game assassin who will take and make big shots. After all, his nickname is the Michael Jordan of Turkey as a homage to the League’s undisputed king of clutch.

Since winning the Most Improved Player Award for the 2007-08 season, Turk’s stock has risen steadily, culminating in last season’s deep post-season run complete with an NBA Finals appearance. Along the way, Hedo has steadily become known for being a guy that can be relied upon to hit the big shot.

Shots like that game winner against the Celtics last season stick in our collective memory banks further reinforcing Turk’s mythical clutch status. They also helped Hedo get a nice payday from the Toronto Raptors, who paid a premium (over $50 million over five years) to obtain the six-foot-ten forward’s services.

Take a look at the following quote that was taken from a post from Hoop Doctors, as it is fairly representative of Hedo’s Turk perceived status as a clutch shooter. The post lists the NBA’s most clutch shooters and has Turk ranked fifth overall, ahead of truly clutch players such as Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony (neither of which make the list’s top fifteen clutch shooters).

Last season, Turk probably hit more clutch shots than anyone, but with a new home and a new team this season, it will be interesting if he still gets those same opportunities to be a game-saver. In the ’09 playoffs, Turkoglu showed he understands the moment by increasing his free throw, field goal, and 3-point percentages.

With that in mind, let’s first examine Turk’s shooting efficiency numbers.

Hedo’s shooting statistics are important because clutch shooting doesn’t only occur in the fourth quarter when the game is on the line. On the contrary, there are a number of important moments throughout a game that can be considered clutch. Coming out of a timeout in a must-score scenario involves clutch play whether in the first quarter of fourth. In fact, considering how precious each and every possession is in a basketball game, each play is rather significant and affects the outcome of the game.

So what do Hedo’s shooting statistics tell us about Hedo the shooter?

A lot actually.

In general, Hedo is not an elite shooter, no matter how you slice and dice the numbers. Looking at the raw shooting statistics, Turk is actually a below average shooter from the field, shooting .439 from the field this season this season and .413 last season. From deep, Turk is a fairly average shooter relative to all players that play over 30 minutes a game, shooting .398 this season and .356 last season. The raw numbers don’t look so hot but couldn’t that be a function of Hedo taking a large number of threes (4.6 three point attempts this season and 4.9 attempts in 2008-09)?

To control for three point attempts when considering shooting efficiency, consider effective field goal percentage. Effective field goal percentage compensates three pointers by weighting them according to their value (1.5 times a normal field goal). This season, Turk’s effective field goal percentage is slightly higher than the league average for players playing over 30 minutes a night (.523 versus average of .501). Last season, Turk was slightly below average (.478 versus an average of .506). Nothing mind blowing here and Hedo can probably be considered an average shooter amongst NBA starters.

If you divide the NBA shooters loosely into tiers, Turkoglu would not qualify for elite status. For comparison’s sake, let’s take a look at two of the league’s leading shooters this season to have a benchmark for what elite shooting statistics look like. When talking about great shooters, there is no better poster child than two time MVP Steve Nash. The Canadian Kid’s raw shooting statistics this season are .529/.431/.942 percent shooting. He is on track to join the extremely selective 50/40/90 club (again). If you consider effective field goal percentage, Nash’s shooting looks even more impressive at .595 percent. For a more recent member to join the top tier of shooters in the NBA this season, look no further than sophomore swingman Anthony Morrow. Morrow’s raw statistics are extremely impressive at .529/.514/.885 percent. His ridiculous three point percentage is the main driver of his equally ludicrous .641 eFG%. Compared to top tier shooters, Turk pales in comparison.

So he may not be an elite shooter but what about Hedo the clutch shooter?

With that in mind, let’s boil Turk’s down to the most clutch of all moments: fourth quarter/overtime scenarios when the game is on the line. Using 82 Games’ clutch criterion, clutch play is furthered narrowed down to the last five minutes when neither team is ahead by more than five points. These plays are the essence of clutch and provide an objective way of sorting fact from fiction.

The data from 82 Games has not been updated for this season so we can only go off of last year’s data. Much of the data is provided in per-48 minute form, meaning the statistics are scaled to 48 minutes of clutch time (as defined earlier). In these 48 minutes of clutch time (based off of a sample size of 134 minutes for Turk), Hedo averaged 26.6 points, which was good for 51st overall. Not terrible, but certainly not elite. More damningly, however, is Turk’s efficiency from the field during clutch time (.357), which was significantly worse than his season average and was good for 156th overall.

Compare these clutch numbers to a player like Lebron James and the contrast is startling. In his 48 minutes (compiled from a sample size of 111 minutes), James averaged 55.9 points on .556 percent shooting from the field, which represents a marked improvement upon his normal field goal percentage of .489. A truly clutch player rises to the occasion and elevates their performance to another level when the game is on the line. Turkoglu’s statistical track record just doesn’t mesh with people’s percetptions of Hedo the fourth quarter assassin.

It appears Hedo’s clutch shooting might have been a bit overblown. How can you explain that?

At risk of getting too philosophical, the problem lies within each of our minds as humans (don’t say I didn’t warn you). People have selective memories where we remember events that coincide with our preexisting beliefs and ignore events that contradict our beliefs. When we see Turk hit a buzzer beater on Sports Center it reinforces the idea that he is a clutch shooter. When we see Hedo miss a clutch three, it goes down as a non-event because it doesn’t gel with our preexisting perception that Turk is a clutch shooter.

For a real life example, check out the following quote from the New York Times that was written during the 2008-09 NBA Finals.

The line between success and setback blurred again for Turkoglu, who has developed into a clutch shooter for the Magic. With little time left in the game, Turkoglu has come up big for the Magic. His résumé includes a game-winning shot in the first round against the Philadelphia 76ers and several game-winners the past two regular seasons.

On Sunday Turkoglu delivered everything but the win.

“I saw an opening and threw it up,” Turkoglu said of his inbounds floater to Lee. “It would have been great for us because we played good.”

In this quote, you’ll notice that the author is paying homage to Turk’s reputation as a clutch shooter in a game that Turk didn’t even hit the game winner. In fact, the final shot wasn’t even put into his hands. Instead, the play was drawn up for Courtney Lee who infamously missed the wide open alley-oop. If Hedo was the clutch shooter as advertised, you can guarantee Coach Van Gundy would have drawn up the final play for Turk to shoot and not pass.

In the end, a lot of the blame for Turk’s inflated reputation as a clutch shooter lies with the media, who glorifies his late-game heroics (event) but ignores his failures (non-event). Once designated clutch, the media picks up the story and runs with it, creating a feedback loop. It parallels the talk from before this season’s draft, which had fans, announcers, coaches, players and everyone in between talking about what a weak draft pool it was. With Brandon Jennings increasingly the next anointed superstar, Tyreke Evans putting the Kings franchise on his back and first pick overall Blake Griffin having not even played a single minute yet this season, it is clear that the draft class of 2009 had bona fide superstars in its midst despite the media writing the entire class off as weak.

Before declaring Turkoglu one of the top five clutch shooters in the NBA based upon glowing accounts in the media, analyze the empirical evidence and make your own informed decision.

Well, week 2 has come and gone but at a major cost as a number of key players went down.  Among some of the bigger names slated to miss a ton of time are Yi Jianlian, Kevin Martin, Tyrus Thomas and Tayshaun Prince.  Tony Parker, Kenyon Martin and Andris Biedrins look to miss at least a game or two themselves.  Even the swine flu decided to stop by and say hello by claiming the first victim from the NBA – Chris Douglas-Roberts.  In fact, it’s gotten so bad for the New Jersey Nets that they have the league minimum available right now (8) with Brook Lopez the only starter left standing.

Week Three Schedules

Four Games: DAL, GSW, HOU, LAC, MIN, NOH, OKC, PHI, PHO, POR, TOR, UTA

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DEN, DET, LAL, MEM, MIA, NJN, NYK, ORL, SAS

Two Games: IND, MIL, SAC, WAS

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Quentin Richardson — The slimmed down version of Q might be worth owning this year as the Heat are in need of consistent production at SF while he plays for another contract.  Over the last 3 games, he’s averaged over 16 pts, 3 3ptm and 9 boards.  Naturally, he’ll on occasion put up some horrid efficiency numbers, but it shouldn’t be as bad as years past.

Beno Udrih — Coming into the year, I’m pretty sure even Slovenian fans wrote him off.  However, with Kmart going down in flames again, it’s opened the door for Beno.  The last 4 games he’s averaged a little over 16 pts, 1 3ptm and 4 assists on solid percentages.

Chuck Hayes/Carl Landry — Decided to pair up this duo as they both play for the Rockets giving solid boards and FG%.  Go with Hayes if you’re looking for a significant boost in steals (2.3 per game) or choose Landry for points scored (14.3 per game).

Anthony Morrow — Last years 3 point shooting wunderkind, has been on a decent 3 game roll knocking in 17.7 points per game to go along with 2.7 threes.  With Golden State struggling out of the gate, I expect Amo’s role to increase at some point.  GSW will continue to shop Sjax behind closed doors while Nellie will slowly become more drawn to Morrow’s proficient shooting with the passing of each loss.

Corey Brewer — If you don’t mind a horrendous FG%, this former Gator is probably for you.  He’s currently averaging 12.7 points, 4.3 boards, 2.3 steals and almost 1 block a game.  In addition, he’s hit 4 3’s the last two games.

Cut List

Ryan Anderson — Nice run by the kid but expect inconsistent production when he finally gets over his ankle injury.  Vince Carter will be back and Rashard Lewis not too far behind him pushing the new Pat Garrity back to the bench where he’ll have to fight for minutes with Bass, Pietrus and Barnes.

Allen Iverson — Well, the AI experiment in Memphis didn’t last long.  Just a few games under his belt, and Allen is already grumbling about his role.  Also, it can’t be anything good that he just left the team indefinitely to deal with a personal matter.  If it was truly a death in the family or something similar, don’t you think that news would have been released as to avoid speculation?

Martell Webster/Travis Outlaw — It was already bad enough both of these guys were sucking out each other’s fantasy values with a pretty solid timeshare.  Now, it’s gotten progressively worse as Nate McMillan has decided to go with a 3 guard lineup.  With both of them coming off the bench for at least the short term, I’m sure you can find a better option on the waiver wire.

Watch List

Peja Stojakovic — Earlier today, the Hornets stated that Peja will be moved back into the starting lineup.  Not too surprising considering the lackadaisical play by the Hornets wingmen (especially Julian Wright).  Not suggesting he be picked up yet as he still looks stiff as a board and doesn’t offer much to fantasy owners if his shot isn’t dropping.

Omri Casspi — This Israeli-born player seems to be going places.  First, Garcia goes down with a significant injury and then Desmond Mason does so poorly that the Kings just recently decided to waive him.  During preseason, those close to the team raved about his intensity and ability to put the ball in the basket.  Well not much has changed so far in the regular season as he’s definitely worth an add in deeper leagues.  In the near future, he might be worth a pickup in standard leagues too if the Kings decide to limit Nocioni at SF.

Stay the Course

Anthony Randolph — Yeah, many of us who decided to bite the forbidden fruit from the Nellie tree are currently paying the price.  However, I don’t advocate jumping ship quite yet.  First, it appears that Randolph will still manage to get on the court as both Biedrins and Turiaf are struggling with injuries.  Second, in what already looks like a lost season, fans and management might push Nellie to play the young guys as to better prepare them for following seasons.

Deep League Specials

Taj Gibson — When Tyrus Thomas’ bone snapped, Gibson became an intriguing pickup in deeper leagues.  Del Negro prefers to keep Brad Miller as the first big coming off the bench so Taj will get some decent run.  Although he is still quite raw, he has some nice athleticism that should translate to some points, boards and defensive numbers.

Ersan Ilyasova — Say yes to Ersan!  The Bucks’ forwards have not surprisingly been a mess to start the year.  However, Ilyasova offers some hope as he appears to be getting his feet under him in the NBA.  Ilyasova has the ability to fill up the stat sheet as witnessed by his performance in the recent European Championship.

Marcus Thornton — By default, Marcus appears to be in line for an increased role in New Orleans.  Recently, Morris Peterson was put on the inactive list (CHEER) due to his poor play.  Now Byron Scott is giving Devin Brown a shot.  Well, with Devin, it’s only a question of when.  Since Scott has announced Thornton is next on the list, I wouldn’t be surprised if Marcus starts getting solid run by the end of this week.

If you feel your team is deficient in scoring and/or threes towards the end of a draft, I’d suggest you load up on some A-Mo.  No, not the stuff for the shotgun you’ve got stashed in the closet (or guitar case), but rather Anthony Morrow.  He’s the new rising gunslinger in the NBA who plays for the always entertaining Golden State Warriors.

This unheralded sharpshooter really came out of nowhere.  He played four years at Georgia Tech and while he led the team in scoring two of those years, he didn’t make much of an impact on the college scene.  Consequently, he wasn’t even picked in the 2008 NBA Draft.

He started to make a name for himself by participating in three summer leagues that included an MVP of the 2008 Rocky Mountain Revue.  In four games, he put up 21 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 2.75 3PTM while shooting just a hair under 50%.  That performance propelled him in landing a contract with the Golden State Warriors.

At the start of last year’s regular season, most fans still had no idea who Anthony Morrow was.  Well, all that changed on November 15th when Coach Don Nelson surprised A-Mo by giving him his first NBA start.  However, Nellie got the bigger surprise.  Against the Clippers, Mr. Undrafted put up 37 points, 11 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 TOs and 4 3PTM making an absurd 15 of 20 FG’s and 3 of 3 FT’s.  Morrow’s reaction?

“It was a fun game, man,” said a humble Morrow, who added 11 rebounds in his 42 minutes on the court. “I just wake up every day like, ‘I’m in the NBA.’ I thank God for it.

Source:  San Francisco Chronicle

Humble?  Talk about unpresumptuous!  Anthony just had the game of his life and he’s this modest?  It’s just simply amazing when you consider he just set a record for the most points by an undrafted rookie during the common draft era.  Moreover, Anthony didn’t stop there.  In spotty minutes (a Nellie staple), he went on to lead all NBA players in 3 point shooting percentage by putting up an impressive clip of 46.7%.

Still need some more convincing?  Ok, let’s give a mention of his performance in the 2009 Summer League.  While Anthony Randolph was drawing plenty of ooh’s and aah’s, A-Mo saved the best for last.  In Golden States’ last game, A-Mo went for 47 points including 7 of 9 3PTM – that’s the highest point total ever in the league’s six year history!

So far in six games of the preseason, Anthony has put up an impressive statline.  According to Dougstats.com, he is averaging 19.7 points, 3.2 3’s, 3.3 rebs, 1.3 steals and .8 TO’s in only 29.7 minutes!  He’s shooting an eye popping 55% from the field to go along with 95% from the foul line.  For those interested in 3 point percentages, how does 51% grab you?

Alright, now that I’ve got you salivating like a hungry dog, let’s talk about what you can expect out of A-Mo this season.  Last year, finding time on the court was a difficult proposition considering the Warriors had an overabundance of wingmen.

Well, this year, things got a little easier.  First, Jamal Crawford and Marco Belinelli are with other teams.  Second, Morrow gives the Warriors a true catch and shoot SG.  A Stephen Curry/Monta Ellis combo is vastly undersized plus Stephen probably isn’t ready to produce effectively enough as a starter.  Kelenna Azubuike will steal some time of the time at SG but will also have to play some SF and PF.

Third, and most importantly, Stephen Jackson has rocked the boat.  Although, there is news he has decided to amicably go along with the program, I’m not buying it.  Jackson made it pointedly obvious several times that he didn’t feel welcome in GSW.   Al Gore famously once said, “A zebra does not change it’s spots”.   Haha, nice try but we get the idea.

In my opinion, Golden State received terrible offers over the last few weeks so the only hope is to raise his value.  Both parties are going to put up a front that they’ve moved on and will try to prove that on the court.  Once they are able to show Jackson can still be an effective asset, they have a much better chance on moving him.  When that happens, A-Mo will be locked and loaded.

I know some of you have been burned by a player under Nellie a time or two.  However, this time, I think the outcome will be much more positive.  First, when Nellie gloated about players in the preseason like Belinelli or Mike Dunleavy in the past, they failed to live up to the hype on the court.  A-Mo has been on fire.  Second, Nellie also likes to make his point obtrusively obvious with players that don’t go along with his program (see Al Harrington or Jamal Crawford).  From all reports, Anthony Morrow is an extremely hard worker who has no discipline problems.

Just recently, Nellie has changed his stance regarding A-Mo.  At the start of preseason, Nellie was talking about keeping the SG spot fluid.  However, in recent days, he has changed his opinion about leaning towards including Morrow in the starting 5.  While Nellie is more than likely going to change his mind another half a dozen times, it is painfully obvious Anthony Morrow can play.

Even with limited minutes, it is obvious he will put up numbers that make him worth owning in standard leagues.  Last year, he had a 9 category ranking on Basketball Monster of 145 and on Ziguana of 156.  Factor in a few more minutes and standard improvement by a young player, that value is most certainly going to be higher.  However, don’t be upset if that value is exponentially higher when Nellie decides to really commit to Morrow.