Basketball Free For All

It wasn’t all that long ago that fans and analysts alike praised the outstanding play of the Lakers’ bench players, dubbed them the “Bench Mob” and put them among the league’s elite reserve units. This season, the Bench Mob was supposed to continue the tradition of wreaking havoc on opposing teams’ second units while spelling starters Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Ron Artest and Derek Fisher and maintaining or extending leads while the Lakers attempt to defend their title.

Over the past few years, the Bench Mob has been known for being aggressive during their stints on the court, sporting the swagger of a starting unit when they enter a game. The following account from the 2007-08 season summarizes the rise of L.A.’s Bench Mob and the respect they garnered.

A worthy next-generation supporting cast has suddenly appeared in the most appropriate of cities — Los Angeles — where a feisty band of extras serves at the pleasure of a genuine leading man. The Lakers’ Kobe Bryant, as Jordan once did, enriches these lesser lights figuratively (by the grandeur of his talent) and literally (backup point guard Jordan Farmar snagged a Louis Vuitton bag for Christmas), and so they aid him utterly and enthusiastically, while also making sure that their walk-on moments are duly recorded. “If we win a championship,” says reserve guard Sasha Vujacic, “we know it will be mainly because of Kobe. But we will have something to say about it too.”

Source: Jack McCallum, Sports Illustrated

Oh, how times have changed.

That era seems like a distant memory, as the 2009-10 version of the Bench Mob has been ineffective at best and downright detrimental at worst. Before looking at the numbers, let’s meet the Bench Mob first and see who has come and gone over the years.

Meet the Mob

When the Lakers are at full strength this season, the following players are the Lakers’ bench players (listed in descending order according to minutes played this season): Lamar Odom, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Josh Powell, D.J. Mbenga, Adam Morrison and Luke Walton (although Walton has been injured for most of the season with a bum back). If we limit the Lakers’ rotation to only ten guys, the top five bench players are Odom, Brown, Farmar, Vujacic and Powell.

From last season’s Championship squad, the Bench Mob’s top five consisted of Trevor Ariza, Vujacic, Farmar, Walton and Vladimir Radmanovic. From the 2007-08 version, it was Walton, Farmar, Vlad-Rad, Ronny Turiaf and Vujacic. While there has been some turnover with the Bench Mob, it is also clear that there have been some constants with the Bench Mob (Farmar, Vujacic, Walton being the mainstays) making year-to-year comparisons interesting, if not totally legitimate.

With that in mind, the one thing can be analyzed independently of the year-to-year comparisons is the Bench Mob’s performance on the court so far this season.

Bench Mob Production, 2009-10

Taking a look at bench production for this season, the numbers point to the Lakers’ Bench Mob being one of the weaker in the League, no matter how you choose to evaluate their performance. In nearly every category (turnovers being the main exception), the Bench Mob provides below average production relative to the other 29 benches in the League.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Data Source: Hoops Stats

When scrolling down the list, what strikes you most about this version of the Lakers’ Bench Mob is how they excel at nothing and are average to downright pitiful in almost every respect. For a major market team that leads the league in payroll, this should be absolutely unacceptable from their bench players. At the very least, they should excel (i.e. be in the top three) in a few categories and should be average in most others.

All of the categories listed in the table above are self explanatory except for Efficiency, which is Hoops Stats’ simple means of comparing the overall statistical impact of a team based upon numbers available in the standard box score. The comparison can either be cumulative or on a game-by-game basis. The formula itself is Efficiency = ((PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK) – ((FGA – FGM) + (FTA – FTM) + TOV)). By no means is this the perfect system for comparing teams (problems such as it values points/rebounds/assists/steals/blocks equally, does not account for pace, etc.), but it is a quick and dirty, but objective, way of measuring on court performance.

So now focusing on Efficiency, which can be thought of as a method of comparing the total impact of the bench unit, the Lakers are 24th in the League. If you compare the Bench Mob’s Efficiency rating of 29.3 to their opponents’ bench Efficiency rating of 38.0, you get a differential of -8.7. Compare this efficiency differential to prior seasons and you see how the Bench Mob has fallen off this season (2007-08: net efficiency of 0.9th good for 13th overall; 2008-09: net efficiency of 2.1 good for 9th overall). In the prior two seasons, the Lakers’ bench has had a positive impact for the team while on the floor. This season, the Bench Mob has been a net loss for the Lakers relative to other teams’ bench production. Simple as that.

Looking at the entire season’s numbers, the Bench Mob has clearly not been an elite bench unit for the defending world champs. But what kind of an impact does the bench have on the Lakers’ overall success?

A Closer Look: Game-by-Game Production

Taking Hoops Stats’ Efficiency rating one step further, we can break the Bench Mob’s success (and failure) down to a game-by-game basis. When looking at a game-by-game perspective, the Bench Mob is 11-22 in the Efficiency rating battle, meaning that the Lakers have had a greater Efficiency rating (using the same formula listed above) than their opponent’s bench 11 times and a lesser rating 22 times.

In the 11 games in which the Lakers bench won their matchups, the Lakers are 10-1 for a .909 winning percentage. In the 22 games in which the Lakers bench lost their matchups, the Lakers are 17-5 for a .773 winning percentage. The difference is startling. If you think of each of the two winning percentages relative to their overall winning percentage of .818 (27-6), the difference is even more pronounced. When the bench loses the Efficiency battle, it reduces the Lakers’ chance of victory from .818 to .773, for a net loss of -0.45 winning percentage. When the Bench Mob wins the Efficiency front, it boosts their chances to of picking up a W from .818 to a staggering .909, for a net gain of .091 winning percentage relative to the average.

Thus, the Lakers’ bench play affects their ability to win basketball games in a very significant and tangible way.

Payroll v. Production

As alluded to earlier, the Lakers’ salary situation makes their average (or poor, depending upon your perspective) bench play less palatable. The Lakers have the biggest payroll in the league, coming in at a whopping $91,341,066 (salary statistics via Sham Sports). The bench represents $28,452,691 of Los Angeles’ total salary, which is 31 percent of the team’s total salary. In a vacuum, the Lakers’ bench seems to be a decent bargain but a point of comparison would probably provide some insight.

For some perspective, let’s see how the Bench Mob stacks up against the League’s best bench, again measured in terms of net Efficiency. The San Antonio Spurs’ bench is far and away the Association’s best bench, with a net efficiency gain of +21.4 . For more perspective, the next most productive bench is Cleveland’s with a +11.3 so it is safe to say that the Spurs’ bench is the gold standard. In terms of salary, the Spurs bench players account for 32 percent of their total salary. In relative terms, the Spurs are spending the same ratio of their total amount of  team salary on their bench but getting a much better return on their investment. In absolute terms, it’s no contest.

Conclusion

The Lakers’ Bench Mob has been relatively pedestrian this season and has certainly been their weakest bench in three years. They’ve lost the aggressive brand of arrogance past Bench Mob versions have exhibited while on the floor in both crunch time and garbage time. The bench is critical to the any team’s success in the NBA but even more so to a team that is defending a title and gearing up for a deep postseason run. Just imagine if this team had San Antonio’s bench instead of their own! However, this Lakers team doesn’t need the League’s best bench to defend their title — they just need a bench that is slightly above average due to their league-leading starting five.

While their cumulative impact has been disappointing thus far this season, there is some hope for the Lakers faithful. On Sunday, the Lakers routed the Dallas Mavericks with the bench contributing a season-high 66 points and Jordan Farmar tying his career-high of 24 points. This game had the feel of a turning point for the Bench Mob, a game in which the regain their confidence and swagger. If that is the case, the Lakers’ chance of repeating will be infinitely greater than if their early-season woes continue.

Every year there are players who will begin the season at a torrid pace. They rebound, steal, block and shoot their way to the top of the fantasy rankings right out of the gate. Conversely, on the less exciting side, there are also players you drafted early hoping they will have a stellar season for your team only to find out that they are anything but the great player you had hoped for.

This dichotomy can be so maddening for some owners that it will cause them to make rash decisions that savvy managers can exploit for their own selfish purposes (winning). Everyone likes a good deal and the fantasy community is no different. If you can find a manager who is tired of watching one of their star players under-perform, offer him a trade for a player(s) of less clout. The idea is to trade for a top-notch type player while he is at his statistical worst, buy low. Or trade away your over-achiever for a slumping stud, sell high.

The Buy Low

Before any trades are proposed, you need to consider a few things about the player(s) you are giving up as well as the player(s) you are receiving. When buying low, consider that you are essentially hunting in the bargain-bin at your local thrift store. The items (players) may have been nice at one time but now are used and a little worn out.

A few things to consider. Is the player coming off a down season that was an anomaly when compared to the rest of his career? Think Josh Smith last year, a year where he had career-lows in basically every statistical category (points, blocks, assists, rebounds) versus his play this year. Hopefully that year was just that, an anomaly, and the player will hopefully bounce back to his previous success of seasons past. Also, consider any injury history. Any player coming off of a major injury or surgery is surely going to have his value discounted at draft time. Finally, the true buy low player, a guy who just flat-out is not playing well at all but has a strong past track record to use as a reference point.

Here are a few buy low candidates to consider early on in the season.

The Injured Player. Kevin Martin and Chris Paul are two fantastic fantasy players that are viable buy low candidates at this point in the season and illustrate the injury aspect well.  No one wants to have an injured player on their roster. Its no fun watching one of your premier players accumulate zeros across the board night after night. After a few days or weeks of having to sit through an injury it can be beneficial to approach a slumping manager with a trade proposal for an injured star.

The other K-Mart has a hairline fracture in his left wrist that required surgery on November 9th. He is due out anywhere from 6-8 weeks but could be out longer as he doesn’t have the best track record for staying healthy. Owners needing a lift in threes, points, and free throw percentage may want to make a play for him. With a guy like Martin, it may make sense to wait a while to let the owner’s frustration grow to the breaking point.

Chris Paul is also out of action due to an ankle sprain and the initial prognoses is that he will be out for approximately one month. Making a trade proposal for CP3 requires a little bit more effort and tact. It is no easy process to get an owner to give up his number one pick, let alone the first or second overall pick in the draft. Paul is most likely only out a few weeks not an extended period so one would have to give up a quality player(s) that are not only healthy but are also producing top tier value. The key here is to not go too overboard in who you are willing to give up. Sure Paul can easily win a number of categories and possibly it all for your team but he isn’t worth it if you have to strip your roster to the bear bones just to acquire him. If Paul’s owner is losing bad it could benefit you to make a play for him ASAP while he is still out for a few weeks and the owner is still antsy to get a productive body in his lineup.

This type of buy low is especially effective when tried on managers at the bottom of the standings. They are more likely to be willing to deal an injured stud for lesser value in order to keep from falling too far behind and out of the playoff hunt.

The Player Returning from Injury. Pretty self explanatory here. Target a player who is just getting ready or has just returned from injury. Anytime a player has an injury that forces them to miss extended amounts of time, he usually comes back rusty and has a few bad games early on. Currently, there are multiple players that fit this bill including Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Pau Gasol. Gordon and Love are still injured but are due back sooner rather than later and Gasol should be back to return Thursday night against the Bulls.

All three players are productive and can help virtually any team. When they do finally suit up, be sure to monitor their first couple of games. If they start out slow, send a trade proposal to open up tentative trade talks (nothing insulting). Most likely they will regain their form in a few games and will be right back to where they were before their injury. Just don’t wait too long because once they do fully recover, their value will drastically increase and your opportunity to buy low will be closed forcing you to pay full market value to obtain him.

Note: Be more cautious with major structural injuries that require months of rehabilitation as effects can often linger. Think Elton Brand trying to come back from his Achilles injury over the past couple of seasons.

The Slumping Player. Simple, go after any player who is performing below their career averages or your expected averages for this season. The idea here is the law of averages. If a player has performed at a certain (high) level for many years and is currently under-performing, he most likely will pick his game up at some point and eventually will end up performing at or near his career averages. A few players to consider under this model are Brand, Jose Calderon, Thaddeus Young and John Salmons.

All are in major slumps compared to their historical production and could be had on the cheap (well Brand’s window may be closed after his vintage performance against the Bobcats last night: 19 points on .471/.750 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 6 blocks and 1 turnover). One major caveat here is to be careful for a player currently slumping that also just signed a major extension, think Luol Deng in 2008-09, minus the stress fracture. Sometimes players just don’t have that fire in them after the big pay day and it can affect their entire season. For an excellent more in-depth article on Salmons,  check out the latest Great Debate piece.

Other buy lows to consider: Caron Butler, Al Jefferson.

The Sell High

If one of your players is playing such great basketball that it seems unlikely that he will continue to keep pace, then selling high is your best option to get positive returns on your player investment.

The Injury Fill-In. Anytime a starter goes down he opens up a spot for a bench player to shine. They can often be great pick-ups for the short term but will quickly lose their value once the starter returns. One player to unload immediately, like as in yesterday, is Andray Blatche. With a Basketball Monster rank of 65th overall in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 53rd overall in per game value, Blatche’s value is as high as it ever will be. Antawn Jamison is back from a shoulder injury and the party is officially over for Andray. In Jamison’s first game back, Blatche had 6 points and zero rebounds in just over 17 minutes.

Rookies. Rookies have become more intriguing over the past couple of years and are capable of making an immediate fantasy impact. Guys like O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose had managers salivating last season. This year, Tyreke Evans, Blake Griffin (even though he hasn’t even played a game yet) and Brandon Jennings have all been hot commodities. Jennings in particular appears to have been the steal of the draft (in both real life and in fantasy) with an average draft position of 126th overall in Yahoo! leagues. His 55 point outburst against Golden State last week got everyone’s attention and if you are skeptical of his ability to continue at such a high rate, now is the time to start shopping him. His current Ziguana rank is 15th overall. I’m not saying he won’t be great the rest of the year because he easily can be, but consider that it is early in a long season.

Rookies are not used to the physical demands of the NBA and its grueling 82 game schedule. The fabled “rookie wall” is very important to consider. Usually sometime mid-season around the 45-50 game mark, rookies start to slow down and their production drops. It is part of the game, learning how to keep your body healthy for the length of the season and rookies sometimes forget that the season is a marathon not a sprint. Watch out for the rookie wall and consider selling high before it happens to your rooks, especially if you can get a proven stud in return.

The Injury-Prone Player. The classic sell high candidate is the injury-prone player. A guy who always seems to miss time each season but is a strong player when healthy. To look at it from another perspective, they have high per game values but low cumulative values. There are  many players that fall into this category and it can often be tough to cut ties with a player who is playing to his full potential. This season there have been a number of players you could label as injury-prone who are healthy and are rewarding their owners.

Two of the best example are Staples Center big men Chris Kaman and Andrew Bynum. Over the past two seasons combined, they have missed 77 and 79 games respectively. But this year they are both healthy so far and are producing a per game Ziguana rank of 49th and 12th overall, respectively. When they are healthy they can carry your team in blocks and rebounding while providing solid percentages and points. But with multiple, serious injuries in the past, their durability is definitely an issue to consider. Kaman seems to have found his rhythm and is playing very well. Ongoing nagging injuries and simply being old could keep Marcus Camby “day-to-day” for longer than expected making Kaman’s production sustainable for the foreseeable future. Even with Blake Griffin due back next month from injury, expect Kaman’s value to hold strong. Bynum is a little more of a wild card. Two major knee surgeries in the past are signs owners might be a little scared of. However his 20.3 points on .591/.717 percent shooting, 0.0 threes,  11.8 rebounds 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.8 blocks and 2.3 turnovers make Bynum a major sell high candidate, just be sure you get quality value in return for the young center. Also, just remember that Bynum has posted these numbers with Pau on the floor this season, which is another reason to consider selling high on Andrew.

Other sell highs to consider: Marc Gasol, Channing Frye.

Regardless of league type or scoring settings, one should always consider the relative risk factors associated with drafting a player who is considered injury prone. You have to consider the type of production you can expect relative to what round he is being drafted in. If the player is heavily injury prone you may not get full value out of your pick.

A great example from last season would be Amare Stoudemire. He was universally considered a top four pick last season and was drafted as such. After missing 29 games due to a retina injury, he failed to produce value even close to a first round pick, let alone top five value. If a top pick goes down due to injury, even the most savvy fantasy manager can find themselves in a predicament.

In order to ease some of the confusion and turmoil associated with draft day, consider some of the league’s most injury prone players. Guys you might want to think twice about before drafting. Not to say that they are bad players, but they can’t help your team sitting on the bench in street clothes (I’m looking at you Mr. Arenas and your fancy ascot).

Now the criteria to determine who is an “injury risk” and who is not is no clear-cut science. It is not as simple as saying that if you missed x number of games the last season(s) then you automatically go on to a list. Conversely, we also are not saying that just because you have only missed a few games doesn’t mean that you are not an injury risk.

There is simply no substitute for doing your own research and reading up on players yourself.

Instead of looking at many of the more well-known injury-prone players such as Gilbert Arenas, Carlos Boozer, Caron Butler, Manu Ginobili, Andrew Bynum, Kevin Garnett, Dwayne Wade, etc. This list is reserved for some of the less obvious players who still have the unique ability to either lead a team to victory or tear down a fantasy franchise if injured.

The first player on our list is not only the highest ranked player but probably one of the more well-known injury prone players that we will comment on. This spot is reserved for Indiana Pacer Danny Granger. Going into his fifth NBA season Granger has established himself as one of the best go-to-guys in the league.

As the Pacer’s number one option, he holds plenty of fantasy value and will be a top ten fantasy pick this year in virtually every format. He can score from the inside or beyond the three point line. He has size, athleticism, passing ability, and is only 26 years old. Most importantly he has incredible heart and hustle.

He has increased his scoring average output by five points in three consecutive seasons (the first player in NBA history to do so) and was an All-Star last season. With 2008-09 season averages of 25.8 points on .447/.878 percent shooting, 5.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists,1.o steals, 1.5 blocks and 2.5 turnovers per game it is easy to see why he is such a hot fantasy commodity.

Another aspect of Danny’s game that has also increased incrementally each season since his rookie year is his minutes per game. His rookie year Granger averaged over 22 MPG and during the past two seasons he has averaged over 36 MPG. This is a substantial amount of minutes for any NBA player to average over the course of an 82 game season.

Granger has a history of ailments dating back to his college days. His junior year at the University of New Mexico he had surgery on his shoulder. He had arthroscopic knee surgery on his left knee as a senior, which caused him to miss a few games.  Last year Granger missed 15 games including a stretch in February and March where he missed eleven straight games. This comes after only missing a total of six games in his first three seasons combined.

What caused him to miss the eleven straight games was a tendon tear he sustained in his right foot. As a result, he was constantly hampered by soreness in his right knee during the second half of last season. With at least 36 minutes per game coming to him again this season, be sure to monitor Granger’s health routinely.

Don’t not avoid Danny on draft day because of his injury history because he will more than likely be fantasy gold next season. Just realize that you are most likely drafting a few DNP’s throughout the season if you go with Granger in the first round. This is one of the main reasons it makes sense to draft Kevin Durant ahead of Granger in most formats.

The second player on the injury docket is Brazil’s own Nene. Now Nene is the true definition of an injury risk and has only been able to complete 80 or more games once in his seven year career (his rookie season in 2002-03). Going into his eighth season, Nene has managed to miss a staggering 204 games, or an average of just over 29 games missed per season.

Last year he played in 77 games and had his greatest fantasy year by far (and a career year in real life) after averaging 14.6 points per game on .604/.723 percent shooting, 7.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.3 blocks and 1.9 turnovers per game. This stat line probably represents Nene at, or very near, his fantasy ceiling. With well-rounded production like that it is easy to see the value in drafting Nene in the early middle rounds of drafts.

But be careful; his injury istory is no laughing matter and is not overstated. In 2004-05, Nene missed 23 games due to injury (he suspended for four games). Damage to his left knee’s MCL caused him to be out thirteen games. Then he was out ten games due to a right hip contusion and a strained left hamstring.

On opening night in 2005-06, he tore his ACL three minutes into the season and went on to miss the entire rest of the season. In 2006 he missed 18 games, 16 of which were directly related to inflammation from a right knee contusion.

And to keep the injury streak alive and strong, in 2007-08, he managed to play in just 16 games. This time a combination of testicular cancer  (he is more than just injury prone), a right groin strain and a torn ulner collateral ligament  in his left thumb. These ailments kept Nene out of action for a combined 66 games.

These are major injuries and illnesses that should not be taken lightly. Just keep all of this in mind when reviewing Nene’s statistics from last season. Nene needs to stay healthy in order to justify this years average draft position, which is 51 according to Busersports, making him an early fifth round selection.

In the end, no one can predict which players will miss a significant amount of time next season. There are always freak injuries that simply cannot be predicted (see Francisco Garcia’s recent weightlifting accident). Just make sure that if you are drafting a player with a significant injury history you know exactly what you selecting (and how many games you are likely to miss out on).

In competitive fantasy leagues, it’s never too early to start to identify potential sleepers for next season. Even though almost anything can change over the next few months, some players are already emerging as potential studs or breakout candidates for 2009-10.

The recipe for a potential sleeper is never the same. Sometimes it is true progression as a player, other times a trade or injury opens up minutes for a player. It can even be a truly unexplainable phenomenon. Whatever the reason, breakout players are essential to securing the ever-elusive hardware when playing against other knowledgeable managers.

Let’s break the potential sleepers into three groups: the guards, the forwards and the centers. We’ve already seen some of the guards.

Now, let’s take a look at the forwards.

Anthony Randolph – This summer’s worst kept secret, unfortunately. If you play in even a mildly competitive league, you’ve no doubt already heard all about Randolph.

So, is he all hype or is Randolph for real?

AR is legit. There is nothing not to like about this kid. He is a must have in most keeper and all dynasty formats. First, he has the numbers. From last season, his rookie season, his per-36 minute statistics were 15.9 points on .462/.716 percent shooting, 11.6 rebounds (4.1 offensive), 0.0 threes, 1.6 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.4 blocks with 2.4 turnovers.

Assuming no progression as a player and simply an increase in minutes (played only 17.9 minutes per game last season), Randolph becomes fantasy relevant. The defensive production to go with everything else is what really clues you in to Randolph’s potential fantasy value. And if you assume production gains as he develops as a player, Anthony becomes even more intriguing of an option.

Oh, and did I mention he was the youngest player in the league last season too?

When I try and decipher how rookies will develop in the future, I examine two major factors. First is skill, which covers both basketball skills and physical gifts. Randolph has both in spades and will continue to develop both aspects as he acclimates to the NBA and continues to fill out his ridiculous frame (7′3″ wingspan).

The second major factor that shapes how young players develop is work ethic. This is what really separates Randolph from other potential sleepers. Randolph had been working diligently to improve his game and get stronger this offseason. He has the drive of a winner that really sets him apart from the average player.

With all that being said, Randolph is a slam dunk, right?

Well, not exactly. Anthony plays for the NBA’s most eccentric coach, Don Nelson. Also know to fantasy managers as that son of a bitch. With Nellie being notoriously fickle, most managers have learned to never rule anything out when it comes to Coach Nelson, no matter how inane it sounds.

Corey Maggette at power forward or center? Sure, why not?

Some people are not buying the “hype” with Randolph but in the end the ingredients necessary for the recipe for success are all there. With Coach Nelson’s contract up after next season, Randolph will be freed soon enough (if not next season). Soon, everyone will be on the bandwagon. But for next season, if you want Randolph, you must reach for him. Chances are that someone else is buying what Randolph is selling and will be aggressively pursuing him next season.

For keeper formats of more than four keepers, Randolph will not slip out of the first round. In competitive redraft leagues, his average draft position so far this season is 68th overall (Buser Sports) so to lock him up he should be targeted in the 6th-7th rounds.

Don’t Sleep on Anthony Randolph.

Michael Beasley — Oh, how the mighty have fallen. After Beasley seemed to be pulling everything together at the end of last season, he quickly is challenging Crazy Pills Ron Artest as the Association’s biggest headcase (Stephon Marbury doesn’t count as he, as he himself recently pointed out, is not under contract by any team and therefor not technically in the league anymore). His recent Twitter/weed/depression episode has certainly called his focus into question (and for good reason).

But why were people calling Beasley a potential sleeper anyway? Dude was only good for 176th in per game value and 141st in cumulative value.

His post-All Star break splits were nice, if only for the increased efficiency; his actual production was more or less static. He went from shooting .455/.382/.768 before the All-Star Game to shooting .501/.462/.779 after the break (not to mention a dip in turnovers per game as well). The efficiency gains were what piqued the interest of fantasy managers and led many to begin calling Beasley a potential sleeper for next season.

Then weedgate hit. And the rest, like talk of Beasley being a potential sleeper should be, is history.

There are two main ways players respond to adversity in their lives. One, is by focusing all their emotions from the difficult situation into basketball, which actually enhances their play. This requires maturity and focus, both of which Beasley lacks. This is how the true legends of the game deal with diversity. It is the much ballyhooed “heart of a champion.”

The second response is to give up and wallow in the face of adversity. This is Beasley’s most likely response, if his short history in the league is any indicator. Next season is looking more and more likely to be a lost season for Beasley, as his personal issues look to affect his basketball production. Do yourself a favor and let someone else deal with the headache of owning Bongsley Beasley next season.

Kevin Love – To be perfectly honest, Love is not going to be the next Dwight Howard. But, he has been more or less underrated (or just plain overlooked in basketball Purgatory, aka Minnesota). What many people fail to realize is that Love is an excellent rebounder. Therein lies his true value and potential as a sleeper.

WARNING: a comparison between two players’ career statistics is going to be made but by no means is it endorsing the idea that these two players will have similar career paths. The comparison is to illustrate exactly how good of a rebounder Love is and will be in the future.

Look at Dwight Howard’s career statistics compared to Kevin Love’s career statistics (and by career I mean his rookie season).  Their career per-36 minute rebounding statistics are remarkably similar, with Love having the advantage on the offensive boards (4.8 to 3.6)! Not surprisingly, their rebounding rates are similar, which measures the percentage of total boards a player grabs while on the floor.

Howard is a player that everyone can agree is an excellent rebounder. The fact that Love’s rebounding statistics compare favorably to Superman’s rebounding statistics in his rookie season certainly bodes well for Love’s future both immediate and long-term.

As far as next season, an increase in minutes should be in order as the Timberwolves continue their rebuilding effort without having added significant pieces to their frontcourt. Love and fellow rebounding machine Al Jefferson are the foundations of Minnesota’s frountcourt next season and for the future.

Next season, Love should build upon his rookie season’s success and increase his fantasy value. As far as possible projections for his production, averaging 15.0 points on .466/.792 percent shooting, 10.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.5 steals, and 0.7 blocks with 1.8 turnovers is within the realm of possibility.

The closer Love can get his field goal percentage to fifty percent, the more likely he is to really solidify his fantasy value. After all, Love will probably never be prone to producing big time numbers in the defensive categories. But, he will give you about a double-double (think David Lee with better rebounding and worse field goal percentage) and hopefully over a block a game and just under a steal a game.

What’s not to well, uhh, love about Love next season.

Wilson Chandler – One of 2008’s hottest sleepers is back, with a vengence. Although Chandler had stretches of solid fantasy production last season, he never really pulled it all together as many prescient managers expected.

For those who don’t know, Wilson Chandler was drafted by the Knicks with the 23rd pick in the 2007 draft out of DePaul University. Chandler played most of his mintutes at the small forward position last season but also played significant minutes at the four for Coach Mike D’Antoni (he even logged minutes at the shooting guard and center positions!). At 6′8″ and 220 pounds, Chandler is undersized at the four, although D’Antoni has never been shy to play guys out of position.

If anyone on the Knicks’ roster is untouchable, it might be Chandler. He is the type of player that thrives in D’Antoni’s uptempo offensive system. He will also be entering his third season in the league, which has traditionally been a year where players take great strides in their production. And since he is still on his rookie contract, his salary situation is nice and does not impinge on the Knicks’ 2010 hopes.

What fantasy production does Chandler have to offer?

Take a look at his per-36 minute statistics from Chandler’s 2008-09 season. He averaged 15.6 points on .431/.328/.795 percent shooting, 1.4 threes, 5.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. He has some serious steal-block-three per game club potential and is an across the board contributor. The only strike against him could be his sub-par field goal percentage, which he will hopefully improve upon as he develops further.

Source: Basketball Free For All

Entering the much discussed third season in the NBA, with the Knicks’ roster substantially unchanged at this point, expect Chandler to be a vital player for Mike D’Antoni next season. He should live up to the potential that has drawn the attention of diligent fantasy managers since his rookie season.

Gerald Wallace — As always, I try and disclose my biases when relevant. Basketball Free For All maintains a strict policy of full disclosure. To that end, it should be said that I am a full-blown Gerald Wallace fan. I love his game, his hustle and his heart. I love just about everything about him. Keep that in mind.

Not a sleeper in the traditional sense, Wallace still should be able to outproduce his draft position (early ADP of 29th overall, again according to Buser Sports). Last season, Wallace’s line was good for 14th in per game and 21st in cumulative value.

Let’s take a trip down memory lane. Last season was the year that saw Wallace missed seven games after suffering a collapsed lung courtesy of Lakers’ center Andrew Bynum. Think about that for a second. The man had his lung punctured, which resulted in it collapsing, and he only missed seven games. This dude is a warrior in the truest of senses.

Make no mistake, you don’t get the nickname  “Crash” for nothing. But being downgraded beyond the mid-third round is ludicrous. When healthy, Wallace has proven early-second round production and is entering his prime (will be only 27 years old next season). If he can put together a fully healthy season along with efficient shooting, Wallace could sneak his way into the first round in terms of per game and cumulative production.

One thing is for sure, though. Owning Wallace is not for the faint of heart. His reckless abandon on the basketball court is why he produces at the level he does. It is also the reason he frequently ends up in the hospital.If you are the type of manager who invests themselves heavily in their fantasy players, it is probably wise for your well-being to avoid watching the Bobcats play next season if you end up snagging G-Wall.

With the guards and forwards down, only the centers remain.

There is ample reason to celebrate in Orlando tonight with the Magic making their first NBA Finals appearance since 1995 when they had a young center named Shaquille O’Neal. Nowadays, the Magic have another young center roaming the paint but may have just been given another reason to celebrate. Rumors now have point guard Jameer Nelson possibly making a Finals appearance as he has made great strides since he dislocated his shoulder in February.

They are encouraged by Nelson’s rehabilitation so much that they will evaluate the possibility of the all-star playing if the club reaches the NBA Finals against the Lakers, the Sentinel has learned.

Vander Weide said the team is exploring whether Nelson can return after undergoing shoulder surgery Feb. 19. He hasn’t played since he was injured Feb. 3 against the Dallas Mavericks.

Although Nelson wouldn’t be in prime condition, Vander Weide said, “the chance to get an all-star point guard on the floor for 15 minutes a game…you’d have to look at that.”

Source: Orlando Sentinal

With the Magic playing incredible basketball right now, the question arises of whether the Magic even try and play Nelson at all? After all, if it ain’t broke then don’t break it. Both starting point guard Rafer Alston and backup veteran point guard Anthony Johnson have played well throughout the postseason. Is it worth messing with the successful tandem that has anchored the Orlando backcourt to bring Nelson back into the mix?

This past season Jameer was putting up really nice numbers, averaging16.7 points on 50.3/45.3/88.7 percent shooting, 3.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.1 blocks and 2.0 turnovers per game.  He scored efficiently from the field and was especially deadly from behind the arc. Most impressively, however, was Nelson’s defensive presence on the floor (compare Nelson with his counterpart’s per-48 minute production).

There is a serious risk in bringing Nelson in at this stage in the game. He is obviously going to be very rusty and will most definitely not be in game shape. With over four months of rest, Nelson may not be mentally prepared to step into the pressure of the Finals without having a few full contact practices under his belt. Also, trying to rotate three players for one position (see the Lakers with Derek Fisher, Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar; they can really only expect solid production from one of the three on any given night). When players do not know how many minutes there are going to play on any given night, it can have a negative effect on their play.

Another Lakers parallel seems relevant here. The 2007-08 Lakers trying to work Andrew Bynum back into the rotation during the playoffs had mixed success. There are mentle hurdles that players must overcome in order to truly play at full strength on a recently injured body part (for example a player can favor the healthy leg and actually damage their healthy leg in the process). Although the doctors may have cleared Nelson’s body to play basketball, there is no telling whether he is mentally prepared to play at full strength effectively.

Both Alston and Johnson have been effective enough to believe that the Magic can legitimately challenge the Lakers in this year’s NBA Finals with or without Jameer Nelson. Although Nelson would probably be the best suited to defend Derek Fisher, the Lakers’ point guards do not play as integral of a role in the Lakers offense than other point guards in the league. However it would probably be wise to get Nelson into the best shape possible to insure against an injury to either of the Magic’s other point guards. It’s hard to fault a team for having too much depth at the point.

With the top two seeds still alive and kicking in the Western Conference, both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets avoided upsets on their way to the Western Conference Finals. However, both teams took divergent routes this season to arrive at the same destination; the doorstep of the Promised Land.

For the Lakers, it seems as though their season was predestined from the moment training camp began. Kobe Bryant and company finished the season with the second best record in the league, second only to Eastern Conference power house, the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Lakers also sported high profile wins against some of the toughest competition this season and stole a game from the Cavs at the Q (39-2 record at home this season, with the Lakers being the only team able to dethrone the King at home;  The Philadelphia 76′ers beat the Cavaliers at home in the final game of the season by one point with Lebron James in street clothes).

For the Nuggets, the season started ominously with the front office kicking Marcus Camby to the curb for peanuts (well, salary cap relief). At that time, the Nuggets faithful were despairing the loss of their defensive anchor for nothing in return. Little did they know that the front office had an ace up their sleeve and would pull-off one of the best trades since the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol from Memphis last season.

In what has proven to be a franchise-altering move, the Nuggets shipped out Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess (who was ultimately waived and re-signed with Detroit for a better shot at winning a title… whoops). Since that time, the Nuggets have gone from possible lottery team to legitimate championship contender. If Allen Iverson truly is the Answer, the Denver Nuggets certainly weren’t interested in finding out what the question was. In contrast to the Lakers, this team has had to prove the doubters wrong every step of the way on their journey to being one of the last four teams standing.

So how do these two teams compare to one another?

Tale of the Tape: The Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 65-17
W-L%: .793
Rank: 2nd

The Lakers played consistently good basketball throughout the course of the regular season. Outside of Laker Nation, the Lakers probably didn’t get quite of enough credit for their accomplishments this season with Lebron James, and to a lesser extent Dwayne Wade and the Celtics’ Big Three garnering most of the media’s attention. They also maintained the best record in the West even with Andrew Bynum missing 32 games leading up to the playoffs.

Pace: 94.4, 5th
O-Rating: 112.7, 3rd
D-Rating: 104.6, 6th
Differential: +8.1 (O-Rating minus D-Rating)

Of the numerous basketball cliches out there, one in particular describes this Lakers team when they are firing on all cylinders. It is the well known saying that ‘their defense creates their offense.’  But for this Lakers squad it really holds true, with Trevor Ariza leading the charge (and earning himself a nice raise in the process going into free agency this season). Ariza, who is the Lakers’ defense personified, gets into the passing lanes, pushes the tempo and finishes way above the rim without ever giving up on a play. When Ariza and the Lakers play inspired basketball, they are really an exciting team to watch.

Offensively, you cannot overlook three time champion and former MVP Kobe Bryant. He draws a huge amount of attention from opposing teams’ defenses and makes life much easier for his teammates to get high-percentage looks. At the same time though, last season’s key acquisition, Pau Gasol, has made it much easier for Bryant to get good looks as well. Having Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum as your backup weapons makes the Lakers a very dangerous team. Add in great perimeter shooting and you have a team that punishes you for doubling to try and stop Bryant. They truly make you pick your poison.

First Round, v. UTA: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. HOU: 4-3

In the first round of the playoffs, the Lakers took care of business fairly efficiently in taking five games to dispatch of the Utah Jazz. However, the conference semifinals provided the Lakers with a much bigger challenge in the Tracy McGrady-less Houston Rockets. When Yao Ming went down for the season after game three, the Lakers and everyone else in the world counted the young and injured team out of the running.

The trouble for the Lakers was that the Rockets didn’t get the memo that everyone else in the world got that the series was over and they played like their (playoff) lives depended on it.  The simple fact that it took the Lakers seven games to move past the Rockets (refer to Lebron James, Mo Williams and the rest of the Cavs to see what a championship team truly looks like) has given legitimacy to the argument that this team is mentally focused enought to win a championship. However the 2007-08 Celtics didn’t exactly cruise to victory against the Hawks or Cavaliers in the first two rounds of the playoffs either.

Tale of the Tape: The Denver Nuggets

Record: 54-28
W-L%: .659
Rank: 5th

The Nuggets played like an entirely different team this season by both addition by subtraction and also by, well, addition. The Nuggets gained by subtracting Allen Iverson, who is the epitome of a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer in decline. Iverson is unwilling to admit that he can no longer carry a team on his back and unable to accept any lesser role. This is probably the ultimate chemistry killer in the locker room. Billups, in an absolute contrast to AI, is the consummate professional and a savvy, championship proven veteran (they don’t call him Mr. Big Shot for nothing). You replace an undersized and disgruntled shoot-first point guard with a professional, pass-first floor general who demands a commitment to defense from his teammates and you have a vastly improved Nuggets squad this year.

Pace: 94.3, 6th
O-Rating: 110.4, 7th
D-Rating: 106.8, 8th
Differential: +3.6

Much like the Lakers, the Nuggets play high tempo basketball and especially push the ball and force the issue on their home court. Defensively, both Nene and Kenyon Martin play physical defense in the paint and tend to force jump shooting big men like Dirk Nowitzki out of their element (although to Dirk’s credit he played phenomenal basketball against Denver in the Western Conference Semifinals). What really stands out when looking over this Denver Nuggets squad is that they played great team defense, which is exactly what they’ll need to do to try and limit Kobe Bryant. Dahntay Jones, despite earning minutes from George Karl based on his perimeter defense, is simply over-matched against Bryant. It must be a concentrated and carefully executed five man strategy if you hope to stop the Black Mamba.

Offensively, this team is a true partnership with Billups and Carmelo Anthony sharing the leadership onus for this team. Billups calls the plays and initiates the offense while Melo is the finisher. Off the bench, J.R. Smith provides instant fire and has matured from playing alongside Billups (although he is still J.R. Smith so keep that in mind). He is prone to occasionally taking ill-advised jumpers or pull-up threes. But when this guy is on, he can absolutely make it rain. Smith is the true X-Factor for the Nuggets offense.

First Round, v. NOH: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. DAL: 4-1

Melo could not being player better basketball this postseason (27.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists on 48/45/83 percent shooting). Him and Dirk really battled last series with Anthony rising to the challenge and hitting big baskets when they mattered most. Chauncey Billups is right there alongside Melo in terms of playoff production (22.1 points, 7.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds on 49/54/96 percent shooting) and impact on ball games. As a result, the Nuggets made quick work of both the Hornets and the Mavericks along the way.

Regular Season Matchups

The Lakers and Nuggets played four regular season games this year, with the Lakers holding the 3-1 advantage. But upon closer examination, the team’s head-to-head play is not so clear-cut.

• Game One: 11/01/08. Lakers 104, Nuggets 97 (No Billups).
• Game Two: 11/21/08. Nuggets 90, Lakers 104.
• Game Three: 02/27/09. Lakers 79, Nuggets 90 (No Bynum).
• Game Four: 04/09/09. Nuggets 102, Lakers 116.

One of the Lakers’ three wins came against an Iverson-led Nuggets team, which, as discussed earlier, is essentially a different team. Empty win, Lakers 0-0. The second Lakers win was played out by two teams at full strength. Lakers 1-0. The third game involves a Bynum-less Lakers team, which is a different team as well. Lakers 1-0. The fourth and final game was again played out at full strength and again resulted in a Lakers win. Lakers 2-0.

Slam dunk, the Lakers are going to sweep the Nuggets in this series then, right? Not so fast. If you look at regular season games one through four again, paying particular attention to home court (the second team listed above was the home team), the Lakers two wins at full strength were both at the Staples Center. The two games that were thrown out for missing key players both occurred in Denver, where Denver is much more likely to play better basketball. While not providing hard evidence in favor of Denver winning the series, these few games definitely don’t give me any reason to count out the Denver Nuggets yet.

Position Battles

Point Guard: Advantage Nuggets. Hands down, and it’s not even close. Billups is a vastly superior floor general to Derek Fisher, although Billups is a better defensive assignment for Fish than Aaron Brooks proved to be last series. Fisher was absolutely embarrassed at times by Brooks’ speed and looked his age (34). Not to take anything away from Fisher, who is a great piece for the Lakers, but  he is clearly overmatched here.

Shooting Guard: Advantage Lakers. Hands down, and it’s not even close (again). I’m sorry but Bryant is better than Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith combined. You better hope that Smith is ready to play lock-down defense, because Jones will be into early foul trouble in at least a couple of games in this series. One of the top five players on the planet and a nightmare to guard.

Small Forward: Advantage Nuggets. Again, not to take anything away from Trevor Ariza, but Anthony is clearly the better player. Ariza’s quickness may get the better of Melo at times, but Anthony’s strength will likewise cause problems for Trevor on the defensive end. Melo has forced his name into the discussion of best players in the postseason and I fully expect that trend to continue in the immediate future.

Power Forward: Advantage Lakers. Kenyon Martin is a very physical defender and could possibly cause Pau Gasol to lose his focus and start trying to get the referee’s ear. However, Gasol can stretch the floor and play with his back to the basket with equal skill. Martin is much more limited offensively which allows Gasol to conserve more of his energy for the offensive end.

Center: Push. Bynum has not fully proven that he is healthy and ready to be a factor in this series. Sure, he did play much improved basketball in the later games of the Rockets series, but he was also playing against a team without a true center or anyone who can body up on him (he is a beast). Nene has also not proven that he can be a consistent factor on the road in the post season, which is of crucial importance if the Nuggets hope to have a chance at upsetting the Lakers.

Bench: Push. This is a hard decision to make. Chris ‘the Birdman’ Andersen is the heart and sould of this Nuggets team and he, like Ariza, has earned himself a nice raise this season heading into free agency. He gets the crowd in the game. He blocks shots and alters way more shots than he actually touches. He provides highlight reel finishes in the open court. Besides him, the Nuggets have Anthony Carter, J.R. Smith and Linas Klieza to provide quality minutes.

The Lakers also have an extremely solid bench with depth at every position. Lamar Odom, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton all provide production off the bench and can step in if an injury were to occur to a starting teammate. The Lakers generally only need Odom and other of these guys to have a big game and they are virtually unbeatable. The bench (more so than even the Bynum v. Nene matchup) will be hugely important in this series.

Final Questions

Which team will show the mental toughtness of a championship team, even through adversity?

Can the Denver Nuggets overcome the Lakers’ home court advantage?

Where will game four be played?