Basketball Free For All

The big news coming out of Week Six was unequivocally Greg Oden’s latest major injury (fractured left patella), which has most likely put his season to an abrupt end. All fantasy ramifications aside, you have to feel terrible for the young Blazer and hope he can overcome this latest setback and salvage his promising career. The worst part about the entire situation is that Oden has been playing by far the best basketball of his career when he went down Saturday night. Of course, this once again brings the elephant in the room to the forefront: what if Portland had selected Kevin Durant instead of Oden (there, I said it)? Tough break for both the organization and the fans.

Week Seven Schedules

Four Games: CHI, CLE, DEN, GSW, MIN, NJN, POR, SAS, TOR, UTA

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, DAL, DET, HOU, IND, LAL, MEM, MIL, NOR, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, SAC

Two Games: LAC, MIA, NYK, WAS

Add List

Joel Przybilla (C – 26%) It’s official: Greg Oden legitimately deserves the  “injury-prone big man” label, which does not bode well for his career trajectory. With Oden down and out, it is Vanilla Godzilla time for the foreseeable future. Przybilla provides very specific fantasy help, giving solid value in boards and blocks and modest value in field goal percentage (the impact of his very high percentage is moderated by his low number of attempts) with low turnovers. His career per-36 minute averages are 7.3 points on .555/.557 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 2.7 blocks and 1.7 turnovers so run out and snag him off the wire if you need big man help.

Luke Ridnour (PG/SG – 37%) Luke makes a second consecutive appearance on our add list based upon his extremely strong play recently for the Bucks. Over the past two weeks (eight games), Ridnour has averaged 13.8 points on .518/1.00 percent shooting, 1.1 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers per game. Many managers have avoided Luke until this point because they are worried about how Michael Redd’s return will affect Ridnour’s PT. Those numbers are good for top fifty value so grab him while you can and enjoy the hot streak while it lasts.

C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 7%) It is always dangerous recommending a player who is lives in Nellie’s World and is subject to the Coach’s whims. The X-Factor now is that the Warriors are so short-handed that Nelson can only do so much damage by playing Frankenstein with his rotation. Watson is just starting to hit his stride this season after suffering a strained MCL during the offseason and overcoming the H1N1. Over the past week, he has averaged 15.3 points, .558/.875 percent shooting, 1.5 threes, 4.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Those are some excellent numbers off the wire and are good for 30th in per game value according to Basketball Monster.

Vladimir Radmanovic (SF/PF – 9%) Re-read the above Nellie disclaimer and proceed with caution. Over the past week, Vlad-Rad has also shown enough to warrant a roster spot. As a further incentive, the Warriors play four games next week, which makes Radmanovic a nice pickup for a manager that needs threes, boards and steals. Over the past week, Vladimir averaged 11.8 points on .475/1.00 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. Based on these numbers, Radmanovic deserves a roster space until his next snowboarding accident.

Watch List

Carlos Delfino (SG/SF – 7%) Not sure yet if I’m convinced that Delfino will be worth a roster spot but his recent play lands him on my watch list. Playing almost exclusively at the three this season, Delfino has played well enough to stay out of Coach Scott Skiles’ doghouse. He has regularly seen over 30 minutes per night and has responded with some decent production. Over the past week, Delfino has averaged 12.5 points on .426/.600 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. The biggest threat to Delfino’s playing time (and thus fantasy value) is teammate Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s recent return from a foot injury. Keep an eye on the Bucks’ forward rotation over the next few games for any changes in fantasy values.

Mickael Pietrus (SG/SF – 17%) As a team, the Magic have been rolling lately (seemed to coincide with the return of Rashard Lewis — coincidence? — I think not) and Pietrus is no exception. Over the season, he has averaged right about 30 minutes per game, which is enough minutes to make an impact. He has been inconsistent throughout this season and his career in general but seemed to come into his own during last season’s playoffs. What was most impressive, however, was that Pietrus made his presence known on the defensive end of the floor, which certainly puts him in a good position with Coach Stan Van Gundy. Last week, Air France’s play was particularly strong with averages of 15.3 points on .556/.667 percent shooting, 3.3 threes, 3.o rebounds, 0.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.7 turnovers over the course of three games (33rd in per game value). Did I mention that these three games were against the Knicks (twice) and the Warriors? That reason alone demoted Mickael from the Add List to the Watch List. If he can translate the recent success into solid lines against quality opponents, pick Pietrus up.

Andres Nocioni (SF/PF – 14%) Pretty much everyone, including Sacramento fans, has to be surprised that the Kings’ record has been hovering right around .500 this season. Especially considering the fact that their franchise shooting guard, Kevin Martin, went down for an extended period of time with an injured wrist. The team response to Martin’s injury has been commendable and Andres has played a role in helping Sacramento over-acheive. On the court, Nocioni spreads the floor while providing toughness and the occasional dirty play (every team needs at least a couple of scrappy guys out there). Over the past week, Nocioni has played very well (56th in per game value) putting up 15.3 points on .472/1.00 percent shooting, 3.3 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Players putting up 15 points a night with over three threes per game don’t spend a lot of time on the wire so pick him up now if you need threes from the forward positions.

Delonte West (PG/SG – 18%) – Don’t look now, but Mr. West has had 3 solid games in the last four.  Considering how significant he was to their team last season and Anthony Parker hasn’t been anything more than adequate, Delonte will be given every chance to succeed.  While it’s highly unlikely he’ll garner starter’s minutes, he should be able to put up enough positives in 26-29 minutes for those looking for PG help.

Coming Back From Injury

Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 41%) With the Bulls under-achieving so far this season (although to be fair they have had one of the hardest schedules in the league so far this season), Ty Thomas’ name has been swirling in trade rumors with the Knicks being the most commonly mentioned destination. Regardless of whether he is playing in a Bulls uniform or not, Thomas should hold decent value wherever he lands. If he does end up in New York, Thomas’ value could actually increase playing for Coach Mike D’Antoni in his fast-paced offensive system. With Thomas due back sometime soon, now is the time to pick him up and stash him away on your bench.

Yi Jianlian (PF – 21%) Of all the players taken in the the 2007 NBA Draft, Oden is clearly the most injury-prone player of the bunch. However, Yi is trying his damndest to usurp the most injury-prone-player-taken-in-the-2007-NBA-Draft mantle from Oden. While trying to get back into game shape after spraining his MCL in early November, Yi required 50 stitches in his lip and mouth courtesy of teammate Sean Williams. The silver lining might be that this prevents Jianlian from coming back too early from his MCL injury and buy him a few more days of rest while his mouth heals.

Cut List

Darren Collison (PG/SG – 11%) You’ve got to hand it to the rook — he had a hell of a run with Chris Paul out with a sprained ankle, but all good things must come to an end eventually. For managers that have CP3 and can store dead weight on their roster (roto leagues or H2H leagues with deep benches), Collison is a nice handcuff with Paul, as their fantasy values are more or less inversely proportional to one another’s. Collison proved during that stretch that he has a bright future in this League with performaces such as his 22 point, 11 assist game versus the Hawks or his 18 point, 7 rebound, 8 assist game against the Bucks.

Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 4%) Like teammate Darren Collison, it is about time to cut bait on Thornton and look for more productive fantasy players elsewhere. If Thornton is still on your roster at this point, look for a hotter player (such as C.J. Watson for example) and grab the player with the higher upside going forward. Just make sure and keep an eye on Thornton (and especially his minutes with CP3 back) as he has shown flashes of being a potential big-time scorer in the Association and would certainly benefit from playing alongside a healthy Chris Paul.

Steve Blake (PG/SG – 14%) Recently, Blake has certainly not made a very strong case for himself in his position battle with Andre Miller for Portland’s starting point guard position. Blake has not topped four assists or scored in double figures since November 21. In contrast, Miller scored 24 points on Saturday night in a tough, one point victory over the Houston Rockets (the same game the Blazers lost both Oden and all of their hope for the season). Also, Miller had 18 points and six assists in Portland’s prior game. It is safe to say that Miller has thoroughly outplayed Blake recently and the minute distribution has reflected that fact.

Stay the Course

Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 46%) Owners had to deal with a disappointing week by Ersan as he was in foul trouble for most of the last three games. However, don’t despair! The Bucks are in dire need of his production so they’ll stick with him and eventually he’ll learn to stay on the floor. Besides, there can’t be too many more potentially appealing options on the waiver wire that can fill up most of the stat sheet. His top-100 ranking for the season and averages of 11.3 points on .455/.789 percent shooting, 1.2 threes, 7.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks and 1.2 turnovers merit hanging on to him until he can buck this foul-prone streak.

Jarrett Jack (PG/SG – 19%) Jack has been struggling a bit since the big loss against the Atlanta Hawks (146 to 115 in case you forgot what a serious beat down it was). However, the encouraging sign has been that the minutes have been relatively steady for the other JJ. Even including the three mediocre games, Jack’s averages over the past two weeks haven’t been terrible — they’ve just been relatively pedestrian at 10.1 points on .478/.833 percent shooting, 1.1 threes, 2.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.9 turnovers. The upside is there (especially in the case of a Jose Calderon injury — another nice handcuff possibility) and the minutes are consistent, so ride out Jarrett’s mini-slump. Oh, yeah, and did I mention he has four games in Week Seven?

Deep League Specials

DeJuan Blair (SF/PF – 11%) – Chances are he’s sitting on your waiver wire.  After a monster preseason, he’s been quite uneventful for most of the regular season.  However, it seems he might be looking at a boost in minutes.  Barring last game due to a ton of early foul trouble, his minutes have been trending upwards.  In the Spurs recent loss to the Celtics, he was one of the lone bright spots.  Antonio McDyess, on the other hand, has been seemingly M-I-A. The upside is clearly there, as evidenced by his per-36 minute averages of 15.7 points on .607/.450 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.4 blocks and 2.8 turnovers. If you are looking for double-double potential off the wire, look no further the D. Blair.

Nick Collison (PF/C – 5%) – Nick appears to finally be healthy and ready to contribute in his typical fashion again.  However, some lucky owners may get rewarded even more as Nenad Krstic’s health is unknown at this point.  Nenad had been suffering from a sore Achilles, but several games ago, he twisted his ankle.  In that particular game against Philadelphia, Nick garnered 18 points (on 8/9 FG’s and 2/2 FT’s), 7 rebounds with 1 steal/block.  Last game against the Celtics, many prospective owners were probably turned off as he didn’t do anything in 11 lousy minutes.  However, I suggest you consider that an aberration.  Nenad will probably be given some time to get his ankle right so go ahead and cash in on Collison.

The NBA basketball season is underway and with that a number of us are participating in various fantasy leagues.  It’s obviously an exciting time as we get to see how our newly drafted teams kick off the year.  A few will be happy with the initial results, but most of us will have qualms about at least a player or two on our roster.  To add to the confusion, there are several guys just sitting on the waiver wire begging to picked up after putting up an enticing line or two.  Should we jump the gun and pick them up?  Or will we regret our decision and feel like the league’s laughing stock?

Since most of us play in standard sized leagues (12 teams each with 13 players), I’m going to gear the examples in this article towards them.  Before you pick up that alluring free agent, I want you to ask yourself 3 questions.

First, regarding the player in question, will he have an opportunity to put up serviceable numbers consistently for at least the near future?  The main thing you want to examine is minutes.  Inconsistent time on the court is almost always going to lead to spotty production.

There are numerous indicators that point to solid time.  Perhaps the player just fell into a solid role due to a teammate’s injury.  Maybe he emerged as the leading candidate from a position battle.  Or he could be a young guy or a non-playoff team who improved significantly over the the summer.

Off the top of my head, some guys who come to mind so far this season that fit the bill are Andray Blatche, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Andres Nocioni, Danilo Gallinari, Ben Wallace, Corey Brewer, Roy Hibbert and Channing Frye.

On the other hand, guys like DeJuan Blair, Ty Lawson, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams and Jason Williams should probably be left on the waiver wire.  They have all had a solid line or two, but in all their cases it is unlikely to continue.  For instance, promising rookies like Blair and Lawson have had some eye-popping numbers but it came in blowouts where the starters played significantly less.

Next, you need to ask what is the free agent’s prior history? There are always a few players in the league who continue to entice owners year after year because they show a glimpse of good value.  For example, this season, already Larry Hughes, Erick Dampier and Travis Outlaw have probably lured a few fantasy managers to pick them up.

However, it’s probably not a good idea.  Hughes has a solid history of putting up an occasionally stellar line the last few years, but he can never sustain any consistent production.  Moreover, he is currently getting quite a bit of run at the expense of Nate Robinson’s short term injury.  Don’t forget Larry DEFINITELY-NOT-A Legend, made 1 of 23 shots in preseason.

Erick Dampier has currently enjoyed several solid lines, but I don’t think he’s turned back the clock.  His numbers have been in steady decline since the Mavericks landed him 5 years.  Also, newly signed Drew Gooden has missed several games due to a pulled rib cage muscle.

Travis Outlaw has the ability to score in bunches, but Portland is so deep that even with Nicolas Batum’s shoulder injury he’ll be more off than on.  Martell Webster is still the starter and most nights they’ll cancel out one another’s value with the dreaded fantasy time share.

Third, how useful will the free agent be on my team? For Rotisserie and Points leagues, this may not be that large of an issue since every player has similar value to every other manager in the league.  However, if you’ve already got two solid 3 point shooting guards on your bench, does it really make sense to add a third and thereby really limiting your team’s flexibility?

On the contrary, in Head to Head leagues, managers need to also examine whether the free agent will help their strengths.  Many owners don’t (and rightfully so) try to be competitive in all the categories in their league.  It just doesn’t make sense to try to win them all when it substantially reduces the odds of winning the majority of categories week in and week out.  Thus, when picking up a free agent, a manager should always be aware of his strengths and improve on those, rather than fruitlessly worry about their weaknesses.

Naturally, you should ignore the last two paragraphs if the free agent in question looks like they’ll post top 100 value for an extended period of time.  Even though the player may not suit your team, he will surely be coveted by someone else and would make excellent trade bait.

Over the course of the season, I’m going to try to touch on a few subjects focusing on particular strategies everyone should be aware of in fantasy basketball.  If any of you would like to see a particular topic discussed, feel free to email me or leave a comment at the end of the article.

As the upcoming NBA season approaches it is never too early to begin to think about which players to target to help your fantasy squad. Everyone is looking to find potential sleepers, the players that will outperform their draft position and potentially lead your team to fantasy glory. This year is no different and one player to keep a close eye on early is the New York Knick’s Danilo Gallinari.

No, this is not a Basketball Free For All original.

Gallinari came to New York via Italy as the sixth overall draft pick in the 2008 NBA Draft. He came into the league as another unknown European player with lots of potential, a word that is so often thrown around that it has become trivial. It is also a word that is strongly correlated with the dreaded b-word (bust).

After a rookie season in which he missed 54 games due to a back injury sustained in summer league play, Gallinari is now poised to start for the Knicks. After undergoing back surgery in April, Danilo is healthy and should be given plenty of minutes to prove he is worthy of a lottery pick.

Speaking recently at a Knicks charity event Gallinari touched on his health and his expectations for the coming season: “I feel good…I want to see the expectations, I want to feel the pressure, because that’s what makes you a really good player,” he said. “So I’m happy that there is pressure and people have expectations.”

Coach D’Antoni also gave Gallinari rave reviews saying he looked “good” and “He’s taken a lot of hits and fallen down and gotten back up. He’s getting in better shape as each day goes by.”

Source: The New York Times

The article also suggests that the Rooster will most likely be a starter this season. The Knicks are a team that is looking to develop its young core with well known hopes of making a big acquisition in next summer’s free  agent market. However, no superstar wants to join a team that is lottery-bound, so Coach Mike D’Antoni and the Knicks have to showcase their young talent next season as a draw to Lebron James any potential free agent acquisitions.

Gallinari, along with Wilson Chandler,  seems to be at the forefront of this player development movement in Madison Square Garden. As a result, he should earn somewhere around 30 minutes per game next season. Examining last season’s limited data set, his per 36 minute averages were 14.9 points on .448/.963 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 4.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers.

Not bad for a player in his rookie season, playing injured, and having to adjust to not only rookie NBA life, but life in a new country as well. With his new-found health and a tumultuous rookie season out of the way, what can we expect this year from Gallinari?

Assuming he earns at least 30 minutes a game (for reference he played 14.7 minutes per game last season), he should approach 13.5 points, 2.3 threes, 4.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.2 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. He should again provide strong free throw percentages (90%+) and should continue to hover near or improve upon his rookie field goal percentage.

The break-neck pace (the second highest in the league last season) of Coach D’Antoni’s fantasy-friendly offense should only help to reinforce stability in Gallinari’s numbers. He is also an excellent three point shooter and should contribute quite a few threes here and there. According to early mock drafts, Gallinari is going in the 13th round with an average draft position of 155.4. Yahoo! has given the Rooster an O-Rank of 166th overall.

Guys with limited upside such as: Andres Nocioni, Grant Hill and Peja Stojakovic are all going before Danilo. For the most part we have seen what those guys are capable of producing and barring some injury, trade or massive resurgence, they have nowhere near the potential (there’s that word again) that Gallinari offers.

His main competition at the small forward spot will be Wilson Chandler. As alluded to earlier, he is another young and talented player who is also said to be in the future plans for the post-2010 Knicks. Chandler and Gallinari should compete for minutes but they are both too talented to be relegated to small roles next season.  Both Gallinari and Chandler should see plenty of PT with a complimentary lineup of  Chris Duhon, David Lee, Jared Jeffries, Al Harrington, Nate Robinson, Larry Hughes, Darko Milicic and even possibly Eddy Curry (if only to showcase him to boost his trade value) seeing the majority of the remaining play time.

No matter how the rotation shakes out in New York, Gallinari will be featured prominently as a key piece of the Knicks’ future plans. Don’t sleep on the Rooster as he is almost assured to outperform his 13th round draft position and provide wise managers with solid fantasy dividends.

Photo by Matthew West

Chicago’s veteran center Brad Miller was acquired from Sacramento last February in a trade that also netted fellow playoff standout and fantasy waiver wire standout John Salmons. In return, the Bulls sent Andres Nocioni and Drew Gooden. Both players would play vital roles in what would become one of the greatest, and longest, playoff series of all time.

That series was really a coming out party for Salmons. Prior to the trade to Chicago, Salmons had been wallowing in basketball hell.Where is basketball hell, you ask? Of course it’s Memphis Charlotte Sacramento.

In his first significant minutes in the playoffs of his career (the eight games with the Sixers don’t count; he only played 20 minutes total), Salmons proved that he deserves a starting spot on a contender in the NBA. And at 29 years of age, it couldn’t have come at a better time. Salmons (more or less) maintained his regular season averages of 18 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists. However, his efficiency from the field suffered. This is most likely a result of playing the Boston Celtics, which is known for having one of the better defenses in the league (good for second in the league in terms of defensive efficiency in 2008-09), despite Kevin Garnett’s absence.

Beyond the numbers, what was really impressive about Salmons from watching the Bulls-Celtics series was his composure, execution under pressure and hustle on both ends of the floor during the series. He played as a veteran should, despite it being his first (real) appearance on the national stage, and his play warrants universal recognition and respect among basketball fans and analysts.

Salmons’ teammate in both Sacramento and Chicago has faced a similar combination of disrespect and neglect throughout his career. At his prime, Miller was an All-Star caliber center, although not one of the top tier big men. From the recent aforementioned playoff series, Miller is most likely remembered for getting mugged by Boston’s Rajon Rondo in crunch time. And then also for subsequently bonking two free throws. It’s hard to blame the guy as he was visibly shaken from the flagrant foul hard foul from Rondo and subsequent medical treatment.

But people often overlook his follow-up performance in Game Six: 25 points while shooting 8 for 9 from the field, 2 for 2 from deep and 5 for 5 from the charity stripe. Oh, and he also chipped in 10 boards, 1 assist, 0 steals and 2 blocks with four turnovers. And Salmons also dropped 35 in that same game, which would end up being  a one point victory for the Celtics extending the series to a much anticipated and ultimately slightly disappointing Game Seven in Boston.

After close examination of Miller’s advanced statistics, it is clear that he is quite valuable to the Bulls. According to 82games’ statistics by position, Miller was good for a +7.4 PER advantage per-48 minutes than his counterpart on opposing teams. Compare Miller’s net gain with Drew Gooden’s positional statistics from last season while playing for the Bulls. At the power forward position, Gooden was a -4.4 PER drain on the team and an even worse -5.8 when playing the center position. Considering that these two players were swapped in the same trade, the statistical difference becomes even more clear.

Miller’s on/off court statistics from his time in Chicago were impressive as well. The on/off court statistics from 82games provides a comparison for how the team performs with a certain player on the court and how they performed without a player on the court. On a per-48 minute basis, the Bulls had a net gain of +7.2 points per-100 possessions. Chicago also had a net gain of +2.1 defensive rebounds per 100 possessions. In terms of per-100 possessions, these gains are actually quite significant.

In a nutshell, Game Six helps illustrate how valuable both Salmons and Brad Miller can be in the right system and with the right supporting cast. In hindsight, it is quite clear that Chicago hit the bulls eye with the trade that netted them Miller and Salmons from the Kings.