Few issues divide the fantasy fanatics these days more decisively than the Elton Brand conundrum. As in the I drafted Elton Brand now what the hell do I do with him conundrum. Those fortunate enough to not have drafted Brand remain on the sidelines trying to determine whether or not to target EB as a suitable buy low candidate.
Newcomers to fantasy basketball may not understand all the man-love and hype surrounding Brand. Over the prior two season, Elton played a total of 37 games, posting averages of 14.6 points on .449/.710 percent shooting, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.3 turnovers. Solid, for sure, but nothing to pine over. However, many managers have a strong affinity to owning Brand after some monster seasons in the not so distant past (Andrei Kirilenko, anyone?).
Step into the time machine and take a look at Brand’s 2005-06 season, which is probably the finest of his career, during which he played 79 games logging just under 40 minutes per. He posted 24.7 points on .527/.775 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 10.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.5 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. I’ll take two, please. Current Brand owners are hoping for a return to the dominant, first round stud of yesteryear. Although at this point, they’d definitely settle for third round production.
What’s not up for debate is the fact that Brand’s production has fallen off, and significantly so. This season, Brand’s averages are 10.1 points on .452/.833 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 5.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. These averages are good for 133rd in per game value according to Basketball Monster and 131st in per game value according to Ziguana. Pretty tough for a guy that was drafted 39th overall on average in Yahoo! leagues.
What is up for debate is the reason for Brand’s decreased production this season and his future outlook. There are two competing theories to explain his output this season, both of which are not mutually exclusive. Theory one is that Brand is old and his major injuries have permanently limited his ability to play basketball at the highest level. The second theory is that he simply isn’t fitting into Eddie Jordan’s Princeton offense. The two theories, however, do lead to different conclusions about the possible career trajectory for EB.
Theory One: Old and Injured
In basketball years, 30 means you qualify for AARP membership and can no longer relate to the youths. Your run isn’t necessarily over, but time is most definitely no longer on your side. There are some players that can play effectively late into life (John Stockton comes to mind), but big men with a history of serious injuries do not exactly fit the Stockton mold.
But what injuries did Brand suffer and how serious were they?
Brand has suffered four major injuries in his eleven seasons playing professional basketball. Over his first eight seasons, Brand missed a total of 50 games while suffering two moderate injuries. Brand’s first stint on the injured reserve list came in 2002-03 when he suffered a stress fracture in his left leg and missed 18 games. Brand’s second stint on the injured reserve list occurred the next season when he missed 13 of the Clippers’ first games with a hairline stress fracture of his right foot.
These two injuries early in Brand’s career were nothing too out of the ordinary for a big man playing physical basketball in the paint. However, everything would change for Brand in August 2007.
In the latest nasty injury blow for the Los Angeles Clippers, cornerstone forward Elton Brand ruptured his left Achilles tendon on Friday during his usual daily workout.
Brand, 28, is expected to undergo surgery next week and joins teammate Shaun Livingston on the list of long-term injury victims for the Clippers. Achilles tendon injuries typically sideline NBA players for at least a year, which would theoretically threaten Brand’s availability for all of the 2007-08 season.
Source: ESPN
Rupturing the Achilles tendon is a devastating injury and can sap the explosiveness of an athlete, potentially permanently. There is not even consensus on the best treatment for a ruptured Achilles. This type of injury is so devastating that there is even an online community dedicated to bringing together people who are recovering from a ruptured Achilles. The result for Brand was a disappointing 2007-08 campaign in which he only played in eight, mediocre games. If you stashed EB on your bench for most of the 2007-08 season, you probably lost. My condolences.
After a frustrating 2007-08 season, Brand bailed on the Clippers for greener pastures playing in Philadelphia. He was the marquee free agent signing of the summer of 2008, inking a five year, $80 million dollar deal. At the time, the Brand signing was widely seen as the piece that would push the Sixers from pretenders to contenders. Unfortunately for Elton, fate had other plans for him last season.
After a less than perfect union between Brand and the Sixers early on, the major injury bug would strike again. This time, Brand suffered a dislocated shoulder while committing a foul against the Bucks’ rookie forward out of UCLA, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. After missing 16 games, Brand returned for a handful of games before re-aggravating his injured shoulder. This time, he opted for season-ending surgery on his right shoulder.
That brings us to the current-day Elton Brand.
With these recent injuries, both have the potential to impact Brand’s ability to play basketball at the level at which he played in the 2005-06 season. Although there have been no reports confirming this fact (and why would the team choose to release this information anyways?), Brand’s range of motion and ability to hit mid range jumpers could be affected by his shoulder injuries last season. Elton is right-handed and his dislocated shoulder was his right shoulder. This would expect us to see lower shooting efficiency (check) and less rebounds (check). Circumstantial evidence seems to support the idea that Brand’s shoulder injury has left him with a limited range of motion, but we can’t know for sure.
As far as the Achilles rupture, Brand’s tendon should be similarly as strong as it was prior to injury while the risk of re-rupture should be almost non-existant.
Mendelbaum and colleagues showed that those undergoing direct repair lost only 2.6% of their strength when undergoing isokinetic testing and that 92% of athletes were able to return to their respective sports at a similar level at 6 months postoperatively.
Source: Medscape.com
However, there is a problem. The size of Brand’s calf muscle is noticeably smaller since the injury. Apparently, he suffered a lot of muscle atrophy which he hasn’t as yet been able to fully regain. A comparison could be made to Dominique Wilkins who suffered through an identical injury – Achilles tear and differently sized calf muscle. He went on to make a successful comeback earning two more All-star appearances.
What differentiates Brand from ‘nique is that he’s never relied on fantastic athleticism. Once Wilkins was able to rehab his tendon extremely well, he was able to showcase his talents (or almost all of it) again. On the other hand, for Brand, his game has been centered more around power. It is quite conceivable that the missing strength in Brand’s calf is having some influence on his game. In reading the aforementioned article, Brand finishes it by saying that “it’s still coming.” This obviously is an admittance he’s not able to do the same stuff he was prior to the Achilles rupture.
If you accept the conclusions of Theory One, EB’s possible career trajectory is average at best and pathetic at worst. Brand is destined to be an extremely highly paid role player, one that people will never believe a franchise was stupid enough to give an $80 million contract to. If you find yourself in this camp, do not attempt to buy low on Brand and if you already own him, cut your losses and sell him for whatever you can get. Every fantasy league has a Brand optimist or two.
Theory Two: System/Coach
According to this viewpoint, Brand’s pitiful production this season is more a result of poor coaching and a mismatch between player and system. Under this theory, Eddie Jordan and his motion offense are the antagonists and Brand is simply caught in the crossfire. There are a few variations on this general theory but the basic themes remain the same.
The first variation is that Coach Jordan is not getting Brand the shots he wants, where he wants them while playing him limited minutes. It seems plausible at first, especially if you’ve watched some of Philadelphia’s games this season. But if you look at the shot selection data from Brand’s vintage season, 2005-06, and compare it to the current season, some remarkable similarities emerge.
If you look at the percentage of attempts of different types of shots, you see that Brand is taking different types of shots at about the same rate now as in 2005-06. In his vintage season, 70 percent of EB’s shots were jump shots, versus 71 percent now. The similarity between percentage of shot attempts holds true for close (24 percent versus 23 percent now), dunks (4 percent versus 6 percent now) and tips (2 percent versus 0 percent now). In 2005-06, 30 percent of Brand’s attempts were from close range versus 29 percent now. Thus, the shot selection data from 82 Games does not support the claim of vastly different shot selection between Brand’s vintage seasons and now.
Looking more closely at the data, a couple of differences emerge. Brand v2009 had more of his shots blocked than Brand v2005, which actually provides mild support for Theory One. However, the truly interesting numbers are the assisted percentage number. This reflects the percentage of shot attempts that were setup by EB’s teammates. Across the board, these numbers are down in the current season meaning Brand has more responsibility to create his own shot. If you read between the lines, you come to the conclusion that EB might be struggling with having to create his own shots without a pure point guard on the roster.
Moreover, isn’t it curious that Brand is easily seeing the lowest minutes he’s ever had in his career (a little over 27)? It’s especially confusing when you consider how much better the team performs when he is ON the floor. This, supports the idea that Brand’s struggles are related to the system and minutes that Coach Jordan has employed in the early goings this season.
The second variation is that Eddie Jordan is playing two post players (Brand along with either Samuel Dalembert or Marreese Speights) when the basics of the Princeton offense dictate it should be only one. Currently, Brand has logged the majority of his minutes at the four. This variation insists that Brand is being utilized ineffectively and that sliding him to the five where he can play closer to the basket where he can work on the low block. There may be some that point to the 82 Games stats by position. However, it must be pointed out that this data is based upon a very small sample size (around 10 total minutes of Brand at C). Take with large doses of salt.
If you buy either of these variations of Theory Two, Brand’s possible career trajectory is much rosier. The solution to the Elton Brand conundrum is simply adjust the offensive scheme or give Eddie the boot. Installing a system more suitable to the 80 million dollar man would correct a lot of the problems with Brand this season. If you fall into this camp and do not buy Theory One, Brand is a serious buy low candidate (depending upon your outlook for Jordan figuring it out or getting the axe).
Conclusion
Depending on which theory you buy into, last season’s marquee offseason signing, Elton Brand, ranges from a decent signing who has had a rough start in the City of Brotherly Love to a mediocre player with an absolute albatross of a contract. With such a large contract and these being tough economic times and all, Brand’s huge contract means he is most likely staying put for better or worse.
In the end, no one except maybe Elton Brand himself really knows whether Theory One or Theory Two is true. We each have the burden of examining the facts and interpreting them based upon our own personal observations. In the end, the onus is on each fantasy manager to come to his own conclusions for the reasons for Brand’s disappointing play and his possible career trajectory.
As a result of his disappointing play, Brand is catching lots of flack for his paycheck versus his production. Really, the blame for this unfortunate situation falls squarely on the Sixers front office for giving him so much money after a devastating Achilles injury and without seeing him play at a high level for a sustained period. For this reason, Brand should not be remembered for his Achilles but rather for his role as Atlas, destined to carry the load of the Philly faithful or to be crushed trying.
