Basketball Free For All

Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

This is the second installment of BFFA’s injury risk series for the upcoming season (now only days away). As in Part One, the same disclaimers apply; not all in injury prone players will be covered and the criteria to determine who is an injury risk is not an exact science. Let’s take a look at a couple of Eastern Conference point guards in the latest edition of Injury Risks.

First up is New Jersey floor general Devin Harris. Harris burst onto the fantasy scene last year after being a backup in Dallas for a number of years. In his first full season as a starter for the Nets, Devin provided an extremely potent stat line for his fantasy owners, averaging 21.3 points on .438/.820 percent shooting, 0.9 threes, 6.9 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks and 3.1 turnovers. This year he is definitely not under the radar anymore and will be gone by the end of the second round in most leagues (Buser Sports average draft position of 18th overall and 24th in Yahoo! drafts). His production and value cannot be questioned but his ability to stay on the court can be.

Its only preseason but the past few weeks the word out of New Jersey has been that Harris has already been bothered by a few minor injuries. Currently, Harris is rehabbing a strained groin muscle sustained on Tuesday, which should keep him out a game or two of preseason action. He has also rolled his right ankle and sprained his left ankle already this preseason.

So for those of you keeping track, this is injury number three before we have even begun playing games that matter. Speaking recently about his injuries, Harris seems to be almost content to just be injured for an unspecified time, almost as if he is used to being hurt.

“I can only control what I can control on the floor,” Harris said of his reputation for being injury-prone. “Things happen. I don’t know why they happen. You put all the time in the summer. Sometimes nagging things happen.”

And as for his occasional tendency to turn the art of basketball into demolition derby, he replied, “That’s my thing. That’s just what I do. That’s how I play. I enjoy doing it. I enjoy the contact…”Small nagging ones like this, no,” Harris said. “Usually I’m like the big hurt.”

Source: New Jersey Star-Ledger

It seems like he is warming fans up to the idea that he is definitely not going to be playing anywhere near 82 games this season. His ability to be a fantasy standout comes from his quickness and his agility, which allows him to blow by opposing guards get into the lane and either score or earn a trip to the charity stripe. He is not an elite shooter (career 45 percent from the field), so his tendency for ankle and hamstring injuries really limits his explosiveness and therefore his effectiveness.

He has only played in 80 games only once in his five year career (his third season, 2006-07). This came after missing 26 games the previous season including 24 of which that were directly attributable to  strained right quadriceps. The past two seasons he has played in 64 and 69 games, an average of 66.5 games per season. That is an awfully low average for a number one point guard and could easily put your hopes of having a shiny fantasy trophy in jeopardy.

The next injury risk we will be touching on in this installment is another small-ish point guard, T.J. Ford. This year, Ford has a new lease on life. He no longer has to share the point guard duties with Jarrett Jack, who was shipped to Toronto (although Earl Watson was acquired). This season, the Pacers are his team to run and he seems ready to make full use of his new-found health and permanent starter status.

Ford had a career year last season while splitting time at the point with Jack; he averaged 14.9 points on .452/.872 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 5.3 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.4 turnovers. He also managed to stay healthy and played in 74 games, the second most of his career (he played in 75 his third season). He is slowly moving up draft boards this year (Buser Sports average draft position of 94.2) and is a highly targeted middle tier PG.

With his new-found starter status comes some fantasy disclaimers. Ford has a long list of very serious health problems to consider before drafting. He is afflicted with a condition known as spinal stenosis, which is a narrowing of the openings of the vertebra the spinal cord runs through. This condition causes a great amount of inflammation and pain in the back, obviously not good for a professional basketball player. This condition attributed to Ford missing the playoffs and the final 26 games of his rookie season in Milwaukee after he suffered a bruised spinal cord.

His other injuries are numerous. He went on to miss his entire sophomore campaign while recovering from neck surgery in 2004-05. He missed six games in ‘07 as the result of a “stinger” sustained to his left arm after colliding with Josh Howard. Then in December of 2007 while playing with the Raptors, Ford was the recipient of a hard flagrant foul by Al Horford which caused his head to be slammed into the court. Ford missed almost two months recovering from his injury, allowing Jose Calderon to slip in and pilfer his starting spot and gain widespread fantasy fame.

Coming off of one his most productive seasons in his career (2006-07 season was very solid as well), look for T.J. Ford to be healthy and ready to step in as full time starter. But with such a fragile frame (listed at 6′0 165 lbs.) and extensive injury history, even the smallest collision could lead to long-term injury. For that reason, Ford will be a lifetime member of the injury-prone club. Buyer beware.

When the Oklahoma City Thunder rescinded the deal they had orchestrated to acquire Tyson Chandler due to a nasty case of turf toe, it seemed almost laughable. Now, it turns out the joke was on the New Orleans Hornets. With basically no depth in the middle and little salary cap flexibility, the Hornets’ fate next season is tied to Chandler and his left foot.

In a press release, the team reports Chandler had a procedure performed on his left ankle to relieve inflammation. In addition, he also had a procedure done on his left toe to improve function. Both procedures were performed in New York City.

Posey had a corrective procedure performed on his right knee in Miami.

The Hornets report that both players will be fully recovered prior to training camp. But that fact that they are rehabbing significant injuries means New Orleans would have a hard time trading either player in any attempts to shake up their roster after a disappointing 2008-09 season.

Source: New Orleans Hornets, May 26, 2009

Scott also added that surgery revealed center Tyson Chandler’s injured ankle was worse than thought, and Chandler’s rehabilitation could take four months, close to the beginning of training camp in October.

Source: The Times-Picayune, June 5, 2009

The fact that Hornets head coach Byron Scott admitted the severity of Chandler’s injury is important for a few reasons. First, it means that Chandler is damaged goods and will most likely not be traded until he returns to the court and proves that he can stay healthy. This has major implications for the Hornets’ salary situation, as it is widely reported that they are in a very difficult fiscal financial straits and are actively trying to shed salary by any means necessary short of getting rid of All Star floor general Chris Paul.

Second, Chandler most likely aggravated his ankle and toe injury in trying to rush back and help New Orleans advance in the playoffs last season. Whether it was his own desire to help his team advance or due to pressure from the front office, Chandler clearly should not have been trying to play. The aforementioned lack of depth at the center position essentially doomed the Hornets’ playoff hopes without a healthy Chandler. When your choice for starting center is between Sean Marks, Hilton Armstrong or Melvin Ely, you are definitely in deep shit.

Without salary flexibility to sign a solid backup center, the fate of the Hornets franchise is tied to the health of Chandler’s feet and ankles and it appears that their desire to win last season meant that they were irresponsible in how the handled his injury.

But what about Chandler’s fantasy value for next season?

Chandler’s fantasy value season is certainly hard to gauge at this point but a few things are clear when you look at the numbers. There are certain players who are much better in real life than they are in fantasy basketball. Tyson is one of these players. There are also other players who will be drafted higher than they should merely based upon name recognition alone. Tyson is also one of these players.

Look at his average value last season compared to where he was drafted. In 2008-09, Chandler’s average draft position was 70th overall in Yahoo! fantasy basketball leagues. According to Basketball Monster’s Player Rankings, Chandler’s value last season wasn’t even close to that ADP.

Per game, 2008-09 = 181st
Cumulative, 2008-09 = 233rd

2008-09 averages: 8.8 points on 56.5/57.9 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.7 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 1.6 turnovers.

Obviously, Chandler was hobbled by injury last season and his value took a very serious hit as a result. What about Chandler’s per game and cumulative rankings from the previous season (2007-08)? These averages and rankings were indicative of the fantasy production and value managers expected to get from drafting Chandler. They also give a better impression of what Chandler’s true fantasy value is.

Per game, 2007-08 = 83rd
Cumulative, 2007-08 = 62nd

2007-08 averages: 11.8 points on 62.3/59.3 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.7 turnovers.

So an ADP of 70th overall seems reasonable based upon his 2007-08 numbers, right?

Wrong.

In my opinion, Chandler’s 2007-08 fantasy value represents his ceiling. As a player with limited offensive skills, Chandler’s scoring probably will not advance significantly beyond his 2007-08 statistics. Most of his points where created by Chris Paul or off of putbacks anyways, so a trade to virtually any other team would negatively affect his fantasy value as well. As far as his other stats, he most likely was at or near his ceiling as well. His field goal percentage has little or no room for improvement. He could probably gain more blocks (Dwyane Wade averaged more blocks than Chandler last season) and I don’t really understand why he doesn’t. Again, more reason to believe that Chandler will not exceed his 2007-08 numbers and fantasy value.

Drafting a player close to or at their fantasy ceiling is not a formula for success. The idea is to draft players well below their ceiling so that they outperform their draft position by a wide margin (the most common example of this is trying to identify and draft sleepers). Do yourself a favor next season and steer clear of drafting Chandler, as he is most likely to be taken at or above his ceiling. You are better off to draft a mid-level center who has less injury concerns and more of that ever-elusive upside (Al Horfod for example).