Pace and Possessions
For being such critical statistics, pace and possessions are rarely referenced except in the most general sense. For example, you often hear that the Golden State Warriors consistently play at one of the fastest paces in the league. Or, a team like the San Antonio Spurs is usually said to average a low number of possessions per game. From listening to the generalities, it is apparent that pace and possessions are related, but how so?
Pace is simply an estimation of the number of possessions a team has per-48 minutes (length of regulation game). Pace is tracked year by year at Basketball Reference, which is the gold standard for free online basketball statistics.
What then, precisely, is a possession? A possession is a team’s uninterrupted control of the basketball and can only end in a variety of ways (a possession is different than a play; a possession can encompass multiple plays). A possession can end with a made field goal, a defensive rebound, a turnover, or in a foul being called.
There are two ways to approximate the number of possessions in a game from statistics that can be viewed in a box score. These methods come from Dean Oliver’s groundbreaking and influential book, Basketball on Paper. If you haven’t read it and are interested in learning about advanced basketball statistics or just interested in gaining abetter understanding of the game, there is no better resource out there.
A simple approximation of the number of possessions is: FGA – OREB + TOV + (0.4 x FTA). The more accurate formula is as follows: FGA – ((OREB / (OREB + DDREB)) x (FGA – FGM) x 1.07) + TOV + (0.4 x FTA). In the latter formula DDREB refers to the opponent’s number of total defensive rebounds. The other values should be familiar to all basketball enthusiasts. If you are not a basketball enthusiast, you have somehow taken a google detour. Welcome and enjoy!
To make it more concrete, examine Game One of the 2009 of the NBA Finals, which featured a Magic beatdown care of Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers. In order to estimate the number of possessions, you simply pick one team and use their numbers from the box score to run the calculations. It doesn’t matter which team you use, as the number of possessions are roughly the same (although one team could have a couple of possessions more than the other team). Both the simpler and more accurate calculations provide similar numbers of 86.6 possessions and 85.0 possessions, respectively.
Where does this game fall in terms of pace relative to the league average in this season? According to Basketball Reference, the league average was 91.7 possessions per game. The Los Angeles Lakers played at the fifth fastest pace in the league, averaging 94.4 possessions per game. The Orlando Magic’s 92.3 possessions per game was good for the twelfth fastest pace in the league. With it being the postseason, it is understandable that the game’s pace has slowed a bit as defenses tighten up and teams play more in the half court.
With all that being said, why does the number of possessions or pace even important at all?
In general terms, it is important to recognize that pace can distort statistics by judging teams based upon different numbers of attempts, for example. It is important to recognize when to use pace-adjusted statistics (Offensive and Defensive Ratings for example) and when to use raw statistics (points per game or points allowed per game for example). For fantasy purposes, adjusting for pace is less important as what really matters is what was actually accumulated. For real life, pace-adjusted statistics allow for comparisons of different teams on an even scale, which deprives a team like the Warriors of it’s pace inflation.
On an individual game level, like examining Game One of the 2009 NBA Finals, pace gives another statistic to piece together why a certain team won and why the other team lost. Imagine the fastest paced team in the league and the slowest paced team played against each other. If the fastest team won the game and the game was played at a fast pace, you could point to the pace and say that the fastest team dictated the pace of them game to their advantage.
Understanding and being familiar with more diverse statistics allows you to marry argument and evidence. All too often arguments are decided by rhetoric backed by zealotry. Don’t fall into that common trap and look for the evidence to back up your opinions based on your personal observations.
