Basketball Free For All

In deep keeper leagues and dynasty formats, the players that come out on top year after year are those that relentlessly search for any advantage and leverage it fully. In that spirit, it is always nice to get the early word on a promising prospect to put on your watch list for the next couple of years. Look no further than rookie point guard, Rodrigue Beaubois.

The 6′2″, 182 pound playground phenom was discovered by Mikael Pietrus in in their native Guadeloupe, France. Air France took quick notice of Roddy and his impressive physical skills on the court. The first time you have the opportunity to see Beaubois run the floor, you get to see just how damn fast this kid is. We are talking Leandro Barbosa or Devin Harris quickness here. Anytime you see someone with that kind of explosiveness, you immediately think of the high potential for steals (fantasy gold).

As most NBA fans have never seen this kid play, what is the scouting report on Beaubois?

Unsatisfied with just Jose Juan Barea as a lightning-quick foreign point guard, the Mavericks used their first-round pick on 21-year-old Frenchman Rodrigue Beaubois. Beaubois has a fascinating set of physical tools at his disposal; at the pre-draft combine, his wingspan was measured at 6′ 9 3/4″ and he posted a 39-inch vertical leap. Where Beaubois is still apparently a work in progress us in terms of running an offense and creating for teammates. Still, he impressed at the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas, putting up a 34-point game and averaging 17.0 ppg and 3.8 apg with solid shooting numbers. If Beaubois plays well in camp, he’s got the chance to push Barea for backup minutes at the point. If not, he’s got time to learn as the heir apparent to Jason Kidd.

Source: 2009-10 Pro Basketball Prospectus

Beaubois’ amazing physical gifts will allow Roddy to be a big time scorer in the League one day. The only reservations are whether he can learn to distribute the ball and initiate an offense effectively. If he can learn to balance the two duties, in the Tony Parker or Devin Harris mold perhaps (although hopefully not as injury-prone), he will have a long career in the NBA.

Take a look at a recent preseason game against the Bullets. In just over 20 minutes Roddy tallied 14 points on .500/.667 percent shooting, 2 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 0 blocks and 1 turnover. From observing the damage Beaubois did in limited minutes against Washington, Roddy’s potential becomes apparent. Again, notice the penchant for steals, even in only 20 minutes.

So why isn’t Roddy a legitimate fantasy pick right now if he is so talented?

Two words: Jason Kidd.

At the young age of 35 last season, Kidd played a very respectable 35 minutes per game while appearing in 81 games. Beaubois is strictly limited to playing point, as he is certainly too frail and short to play the two guard. Thus, Roddy should not regularly see over twenty minutes again next season. Instead, he should see extended time in garbage time.

But the silver lining is that through all of this, Roddy gets to learn and practice against the best point guard of past ten years, Jason Kidd. As a rookie point guard in the NBA, backing up Kidd is akin to being chosen to be a Rhodes Scholar; you get to learn from the best.

Barring an injury to Kidd, Roddy should not see enough minutes to post solid fantasy value next season. Kidd, Barea and the criminally underrated Jason Terry will all also be logging minutes at the point for Dallas next season. In fact Beaubois will more than likely serve some time in the NBA equivalent of detention; the D-League.

For managers in dynasty or deep keeper formats looking for that extra edge, put Beaubois on your real life watch list and pay special attention to the Mavericks’ garbage time. As Beaubois develops and adjusts to the Association (and hopefully bulks up a bit too), he should be a fantasy asset for the managers wise enought to spot the proverbial diamond in the rough.

If you feel your team is deficient in scoring and/or threes towards the end of a draft, I’d suggest you load up on some A-Mo.  No, not the stuff for the shotgun you’ve got stashed in the closet (or guitar case), but rather Anthony Morrow.  He’s the new rising gunslinger in the NBA who plays for the always entertaining Golden State Warriors.

This unheralded sharpshooter really came out of nowhere.  He played four years at Georgia Tech and while he led the team in scoring two of those years, he didn’t make much of an impact on the college scene.  Consequently, he wasn’t even picked in the 2008 NBA Draft.

He started to make a name for himself by participating in three summer leagues that included an MVP of the 2008 Rocky Mountain Revue.  In four games, he put up 21 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 2.75 3PTM while shooting just a hair under 50%.  That performance propelled him in landing a contract with the Golden State Warriors.

At the start of last year’s regular season, most fans still had no idea who Anthony Morrow was.  Well, all that changed on November 15th when Coach Don Nelson surprised A-Mo by giving him his first NBA start.  However, Nellie got the bigger surprise.  Against the Clippers, Mr. Undrafted put up 37 points, 11 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 TOs and 4 3PTM making an absurd 15 of 20 FG’s and 3 of 3 FT’s.  Morrow’s reaction?

“It was a fun game, man,” said a humble Morrow, who added 11 rebounds in his 42 minutes on the court. “I just wake up every day like, ‘I’m in the NBA.’ I thank God for it.

Source:  San Francisco Chronicle

Humble?  Talk about unpresumptuous!  Anthony just had the game of his life and he’s this modest?  It’s just simply amazing when you consider he just set a record for the most points by an undrafted rookie during the common draft era.  Moreover, Anthony didn’t stop there.  In spotty minutes (a Nellie staple), he went on to lead all NBA players in 3 point shooting percentage by putting up an impressive clip of 46.7%.

Still need some more convincing?  Ok, let’s give a mention of his performance in the 2009 Summer League.  While Anthony Randolph was drawing plenty of ooh’s and aah’s, A-Mo saved the best for last.  In Golden States’ last game, A-Mo went for 47 points including 7 of 9 3PTM – that’s the highest point total ever in the league’s six year history!

So far in six games of the preseason, Anthony has put up an impressive statline.  According to Dougstats.com, he is averaging 19.7 points, 3.2 3’s, 3.3 rebs, 1.3 steals and .8 TO’s in only 29.7 minutes!  He’s shooting an eye popping 55% from the field to go along with 95% from the foul line.  For those interested in 3 point percentages, how does 51% grab you?

Alright, now that I’ve got you salivating like a hungry dog, let’s talk about what you can expect out of A-Mo this season.  Last year, finding time on the court was a difficult proposition considering the Warriors had an overabundance of wingmen.

Well, this year, things got a little easier.  First, Jamal Crawford and Marco Belinelli are with other teams.  Second, Morrow gives the Warriors a true catch and shoot SG.  A Stephen Curry/Monta Ellis combo is vastly undersized plus Stephen probably isn’t ready to produce effectively enough as a starter.  Kelenna Azubuike will steal some time of the time at SG but will also have to play some SF and PF.

Third, and most importantly, Stephen Jackson has rocked the boat.  Although, there is news he has decided to amicably go along with the program, I’m not buying it.  Jackson made it pointedly obvious several times that he didn’t feel welcome in GSW.   Al Gore famously once said, “A zebra does not change it’s spots”.   Haha, nice try but we get the idea.

In my opinion, Golden State received terrible offers over the last few weeks so the only hope is to raise his value.  Both parties are going to put up a front that they’ve moved on and will try to prove that on the court.  Once they are able to show Jackson can still be an effective asset, they have a much better chance on moving him.  When that happens, A-Mo will be locked and loaded.

I know some of you have been burned by a player under Nellie a time or two.  However, this time, I think the outcome will be much more positive.  First, when Nellie gloated about players in the preseason like Belinelli or Mike Dunleavy in the past, they failed to live up to the hype on the court.  A-Mo has been on fire.  Second, Nellie also likes to make his point obtrusively obvious with players that don’t go along with his program (see Al Harrington or Jamal Crawford).  From all reports, Anthony Morrow is an extremely hard worker who has no discipline problems.

Just recently, Nellie has changed his stance regarding A-Mo.  At the start of preseason, Nellie was talking about keeping the SG spot fluid.  However, in recent days, he has changed his opinion about leaning towards including Morrow in the starting 5.  While Nellie is more than likely going to change his mind another half a dozen times, it is painfully obvious Anthony Morrow can play.

Even with limited minutes, it is obvious he will put up numbers that make him worth owning in standard leagues.  Last year, he had a 9 category ranking on Basketball Monster of 145 and on Ziguana of 156.  Factor in a few more minutes and standard improvement by a young player, that value is most certainly going to be higher.  However, don’t be upset if that value is exponentially higher when Nellie decides to really commit to Morrow.

June 25, 2009, Madison Square Garden.

The eyes of the NBA world were all on a small group of young gentlemen, primed and ready to make a mark for themselves in a league full of hopes and dreams. It would start pretty much as expected for the likes of Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet, Tyreke Evans and others. But what was supposed to be the beginning of an illustrious career in the NBA, quickly turned into a roller coaster ride of despair, then excitement, for one such prospect.

Originally considered a lottery pick by several outlets, a total of 25 teams passed up on DeJuan Blair, some of them twice (four times by the Timberwolves alone!). It wasn’t until the second round, at pick number 37 overall, when the San Antonio Spurs made Blair’s dream of playing in the NBA a reality. But even with the adversity of falling to the second round, this strong-minded young man was able to put things in perspective:

Despite being taken in the second round of the NBA Draft last night, Pitt All-American DeJuan Blair has no regrets about turning professional after his sophomore season.

“No, this is what I wanted,” Blair said this morning on a conference call the day after the San Antonio Spurs drafted him with the No. 37 overall selection. “I think it was a good decision. I couldn’t have landed in a better situation than I am in now. [San Antonio] just traded Kurt Thomas, their starting forward. It’s a dream come true. I should have been a first-round pick, but God wanted me to drop to the second round.”

Source: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Oh yeah – DeJuan Blair is a Spur.

So now comes the hard part. In many ways, the same dis-service to DeJuan Blair is now replaying itself over and over again in fantasy drafts all across the land. DeJuan Blair has fallen off the radar, not even making the ADP lists or rankings of several high profile fantasy sites (BFFA included!).

But what is there not to like about this kid?

In two years at the University of Pittsburgh, he averaged 13.6 points on 56.4% shooting, with 10.7 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Even by college standards, those are pretty good numbers. He was a consensus First Team All-American, and was the 2008-09 Big East co-Player of the Year, sharing that title with the 2nd overall pick in this year’s draft, Hasheem Thabeet.

So what could have possibly happened to make 25 NBA teams pass on DeJuan Blair? He’s not a bad person. He’s not a bad player. What gives?

The answer is simple…minus two.

As in the number of ligaments DeJuan Blair is missing… in his knees!

Yes, if you haven’t heard the story by now, DeJuan Blair is missing, not one, but both ACLs in his knees. Apparently, 25 NBA general managers feel it’s important to have one’s ACLs if one intends to play basketball in the NBA. The blurb in Yahoo!’s draft night recap even said this:

One team official even said he couldn’t find Blair’s ACLs on the medical scans.

Source: Yahoo! Sports

Wow. Just the thought that such bias, such prejudice, towards a missing ligament could keep this young man from fulfilling his dream to play in the NBA. It’s simply unfathomable! And keeping him off your cheat sheet or ADP list – why, that’s undeniably inexcusable!

Alright, alright…yes, a bit much on the theatrics.

But the point is much the same – don’t sell DeJuan Blair short on draft day, especially in a deep league (14+ teams) or keeper and dyansty formats. In standard leagues, keep him on your watch list (unless you’ve taken a last round flier on him). And keep these points in mind when your friends are ragging on you for your lack of intelligence in taking DeJuan Blair:

• DeJuan Blair had surgery on both his ACLs in high school. Since that time, Blair has played injury-free, never once missing a practice or game.

• DeJuan Blair has numerous accolades throughout his high school and college career, including a high school state championship, and the 2007-08 Big East Tournament Championship.

• In two “official” pre-season games with the Spurs, DeJuan Blair’s lines have been 16/19 with one steal, and 28/4 with two steals, respectively.

And if you’re still on the fence about Blair, consider this – when commenting on the Spurs latest acquisition, columnist Buck Harvey wrote:

Still, one staffer in the draft room Thursday said there were “cartwheels and high-fives,” and R.C. Buford later gushed as he rarely does about any draft pick.

An especially daring prediction: Blair will play 20 minutes a night.

Source: mySA.com

And Gregg Popovich has said Blair will play this year. If he works his way into the rotation, he could be a very sneaky-good addition at the forward position.

He’s a player who could get the most out of 20 minutes plus per game. He’s a player who could easily average double digit scoring and rebounding. He’s a player with a strong conviction and strong work ethic – someone who will continue to fight for the ball, relentlessly, until he gets it.

And he’s a player with a chip on his shoulder the size of the great state he plays in.

To those 25 GM’s who passed on DeJuan Blair, Spurs fans have this to say…

“ACLs ?!? We don’t need no stinking ACLs!”

If nothing else, Dallas Mavericks billionaire Mark Cuban is certainly not gun shy about making major moves and shaking up his roster. After a disappointing 2008-09 campaign, Cuban declared that nobody was safe from being moved.

Despite the declaration, Dallas’ core stayed intact with Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and Josh Howard all still around. With the season just around the corner, the 2009-10 Mavericks are substantially similar to last season’s model, with versatile forward Shawn Marion and big man Drew Gooden being the main additions.

This was supposed to be a sleeper piece on Marcin Gortat or Brandon Bass. However, the Orlando Magic ended up locking down both players for very reasonable prices, which seemed to be one of the major themes of the summer of 2009. Man, it would have been awesome to finally see the Polish Sledgehammer unleashed. But it was not meant to be.

With Erick Dampier slowing down and showing his age (34), the Mavericks clearly needed an addition or two to the front court. What the Mavericks needed most was athleticism on the wing (Marion) and scoring from the paint (Gooden). Scoring in the paint is not exactly Dirk’s specialty, as he is much more of a jump shooter than Gooden.

If given minutes, Gooden has shown that he can produce and be fantasy relevant. His career per-36 minutes averages are 15.4 points on .471/.732 percent shooting, 10.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.1 turnovers. Light on the blocks and not a great field goal percentage for a PF/C player, but useful nonetheless.

In the Mavericks-Magic preseason game, Gooden showed how he can play a big role in limited minutes. He had 18 points and 6 boards and a block while shooting a high percentage in 22 minutes. Granted it is only preseason, but that also means that Gooden should most likely see more minutes as guys like Kris Humprhies, Jake Voshkuhl and James Singleton should not be seeing nearly as much court time during the regular season (they played a combined 47 mintes against the Magic).

Starting status doesn’t matter for fantasy basketball. What matters most is the distribution of minutes, as minutes are a prerequisite to having fantasy value. With Dampier approaching senior citizen status in the NBA while also being almost completely offensively inept, Gooden has a solid opportunity to carve out a 30+ minute per game role for himself.

In recent years, Gooden has not played alongside such a talented group of players. Say what you will about his age, but there are few floor generals as talented as Kidd. Throw in Dirk, Terry and Marion and Gooden should be seeing a lot of open looks as players double off of him. Drew is most effective as a complimentary, scoring big man off the bench, which appears to be exactly how Coach Carlisle plans on utilize him.

With the Mavericks looking like the legitimate third seed in the West (with the Lakers and Spurs taking the top two spots), Gooden looks like a solid late round pick (Buser Sports ADP of 170 and a Yahoo! O-Rank of 194) for managers looking to efficiently solidify their points and boards from a center-eligible player.

For those of you who think Emeka Okafor will be the only new significant contributor for the New Orleans Hornets this season, think again!  Joining the big man in the middle in the starting lineup will be Julian Wright.  With the team in desperate need of some youthful athleticism, he is poised to have a nice breakout in 2009-10.

Julian’s first two years in the NBA were pretty uneventful as he mainly participated in garbage time.  However, some of you may remember towards the end of his rookie year, he showed some glimpses of his potential.  In particular, during the 4th game of the playoffs against Dallas, Julian came into the game and helped deflate the Mavericks momentum with his energy and hustle.  The Hornets went on to finish off Dallas and then almost knocked off the Spurs.

Subsequently, last year, many Hornets fans expected to see Wright emerge as a major cog in the rotation.  Sadly, it didn’t happen as the wrath of young player hater Byron Scott buried him on the bench.  Many fans expressed their concern over the course of the 2008-09 campaign and pointed to losing young promising talent like J.R. Smith and Brandon Bass.  Then, somewhat surprisingly, rumors started circulating that Wright was going to become a starter this upcoming season, and at the start of training camp, it became official:

“Right now Julian is the starting three, ” Scott said. “It’s his position to lose. He’s comfortable and he has a lot of confidence in himself. I think he knows we have a lot of confidence in him.”

Source:  Nola.com

So why the sudden turn around Byron?  Have a change of heart?

I seriously doubt it as I think the issue was two-fold.  First, a lot of it boiled down to hard economics.  The Hornets were stuck between a rock and hard place this offseason as they needed to get better but were well over the salary cap.  Why else would they deal Tyson Chandler (a CP3 favorite), Rasual Butler (for a 2nd round pick) and Antonio Daniels (decent veteran backup PG)?

Second, they had just gone through a season in which the immovable Peja Stojakovic wasn’t physically 100% for the majority of the season.  Consequently, the only obvious solution was to play him less minutes in order to help maintain his effectiveness.

So now the Hornets have to fill both the starting SG and SF positions.  One look at the remaining roster and you’ll see why the Hornets appear to have the “wright change of heart.”  Besides our sleeper candidate, they could have gone with Devin Brown (do you really need an explanation), James Posey (easily his best role is off the bench) and Morris Peterson (someone not a rookie needs to play SG).  It’s no surprise why the Hornets have a ton of confidence in the youngster.

Good thing for fantasy owners is this kid has some game.  Despite not having solid support his first two seasons, his career per-36  minute averages are 11.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.0 turnovers, 1.6 steals and .8 blocks.  His field goal percentage is a hefty 49.4%.  His FT shooting and 3 point contributions are dismal but let’s not completely write them off considering he still is young enough to improve upon them.

The biggest question will be whether the aforementioned line serves either as a baseline or a ceiling.  In the past, the Hornets have made a mistake of treating Wright like a number of their other wings – a shooter with an experienced IQ.  Guess what – he’s NOT that type of player.

Instead, think Gerald Wallace – a high-riser with amazing all around athleticism and excellent length (6′8”) and wingspan (7′1”).  I believe that the Hornets will finally realize his strengths as they can’t bury their heads in the sand anymore.  They’ll have to rely on his above the rim game with Tyson in Charlotte, his excellent rebounding numbers for a wingman and very good vision to hit a number of excellent Hornet spot up shooters.  When you couple this opportunity with what many scouts consider a good work ethic, you can see why Wright has all the makings of a special sleeper.

With most of the attention in Philly on newly anointed head coach Eddie Jordan and his highly anticipated Princeton offense, one third year forward out of Georgia Tech is quietly building a name for himself. Thaddeus Young is making a case to be considered one of the best mid-draft picks of the 2007 NBA Draft after being taken twelfth overall.

Last season, Young was asked to shoulder a much bigger role and his minutes spiked from 21.0 minutes per game in his rookie season to 34.4 minutes per game last season in 74 games. Those are big time minutes for the lesser known sophomore. At the Sixers’ recent media day, Young was asked how he has grown heading into the upcoming season.

I think I’ve grown a lot going with each season. Going into this season, I’ve been working on a lot of different things. I have been trying to get better at ball handling and shoot the ball a little more. Right now it’s not really about me it’s about this team and we are going to go out there and continue to work hard and try to defend, that’s the most important part. You guys have seen us in transition, we are going to go out there and do the thing we know how to do. I don’t think anyone’s going to be prepared for what’s going to happen because they are not use to the Sixers being the team that’s going to do a lot of passing and cutting.

Source: Philadelphia 76ers

With a lot of the talk focusing on how Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert are going to be deployed down low, not much mention is being made of Young’s role next season. Young should be splitting time at the three and four next season and should be fine whether starting or coming off the bench.

The good news is that early indications from training camp point to Young being a starter, as he has been getting run with the first unit, sliding Andre Iguodala to the shooting guard position.

With Andre Miller failing physicals in the Pacific Northwest, the Sixers will no longer have a pure distributor on the floor. The current plan is to start Louis Williams at the one despite the fact that he is more of a shoot-first (or attack-the-rim-first) than a pass-first guard.

But in Jordan’s system, not having a distributing point guard doesn’t matter as much as it would in other systems. The ball-handling duties will be distributed more evenly, and thus we can expect a slight bump in assists across the board in Philly.

With that in mind, take a look at Thaddeus’ career per-36 minute averages. He has averaged 15.3 points on .510/.736 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.6 turnovers. As mentioned before, we can probably expect a bump in his assists next season as Jordan’s offensive scheme is adopted and implemented.

In addition to a slight assist bump, another reason to be bullish about Young’s prospects next season is his three point shooting. Hold up, you say. Young is definitely not a great three point shooter (career .339 percent shooter). However, on a team that was arguably the league’s worst three point shooting team last season, Young should have ample opportunities to make it rain.

How bad were the Sixers from behind the arc last season? They couldn’t be that bad could they?

No sugarcoating it here; the 76ers were absolutely awful from deep in 2008-09. They were dead last in three point shooting percentage (.318 percent relative to the league average of .367), second to last in attempts (1072 versus a league average of 1486) and second to last in threes made (341 versus a league average of 545). Yuck.

Let’s revisit Thad’s quote about what he’s been working on recently:

I think I’ve grown a lot going with each season. Going into this season, I’ve been working on a lot of different things. I have been trying to get better at ball handling and shoot the ball a little more. Right now it’s not really about me it’s about this team and we are going to go out there and continue to work hard and try to defend, that’s the most important part. You guys have seen us in transition, we are going to go out there and do the thing we know how to do. I don’t think anyone’s going to be prepared for what’s going to happen because they are not use to the Sixers being the team that’s going to do a lot of passing and cutting.

Young has worked this summer on skills (ball handling, shooting) that will help him succeed in Coach Jordan’s system. He has the skill, he has the drive and he has a proven record of recent fantasy relevance. Last season, Young ranked 74th in per game value and 69th in cumulative value according to Basketball Monster.

Granted, Elton Brand missed a significant portion of last season (missed 53 games) but once a young, talented player like Thaddeus breaks out, it is rare that they regress without suffering injury (unless his name is Rudy Gay that is). With a Buser Sports average draft position of 109 and a Yahoo! O-Rank of 102, Young can certainly be had late enough to outproduce his draft position by a round (or two).

If there is any coach that can successfully get his players to play their best basketball, Coach Jordan is definitely the man. Arguably that is one of the reasons why the Wizards Bullets continually fell short in the playoffs with EJ in charge. They were already playing their best basketball while teams like the Cavaliers kicked it up a notch in the playoffs. Hard to punish a guy after getting the best out of his players for all 82 games.

The real story is that Eddie became the scapegoat for an entire franchise that got Arenased out of over $100 million. If there’s any coach that can be relied upon to maximize his player’s values, it is certainly Jordan. For that reason alone, Young should be worth a gamble in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts.

With Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, and to some extent Trevor Ariza getting all the headlines in Houston, there is one player nobody is talking about: Carl Landry. And people probably should be talking about him as he is poised for a breakout season in 2009.

Landry has had some brief moments in the spotlight during his two years playing for the Rockets. He’s had 22 point games and he’s even pulled down eleven boards in a game. Hell, he’s even taken a bullet for the team.

But now, with Yao Ming down and out for the entire 2009-10 season, there is suddenly a 33 minute hole in the Rockets’ rotation at center. Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes should both see a boost of minutes, as they were the other two Rockets to log significant minutes at the five last season.

With Scola and Hayes playing primarily at the five, Landry should see a significant spike in minutes holding down the power forward position for the Rockets next season . For reference, he averaged 21.3 minutes per game last season. Next season, Landry looks poised to earn about 30 minutes a game, with David Andersen and Joey Dorsey picking up the remainder of the minutes at the four and five.

per-36 minute statistics from last season were nice with Landry averaging 15.7 points on .574/.813 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.4 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.7 turnovers. If you factor in some slight gains due to improvement entering his third season in the NBA, and Landry’s promise becomes quite clear.

For certain fantasy teams, Landry is a perfect fit. For teams looking to beef up their field goal percentage without having to sacrifice free throw percentage should look no further than Landry. In fact, Landry was one of ten players last season to average .500+ field goal percentage and .800+ free throw percentage (restricted to players who logged more than 1000 minutes). He also provides rebounds, points and a little bit of defensive category production as well.

On top of everything, Landry can be had very late, including the last round of all standard size leagues. Landry’s Buser Sport’s average draft position is 160 and his Yahoo! O-Rank is nearly identical at 161st overall. He is almost a sure bet to outproduce his average draft position in the 13th round of most drafts.

In Landry, we have the especially rare convergence of a few factors to create a development sleeper and an injury sleeper.

The development sleepers are sleepers in their purest form. Development sleepers are guys who improve based upon their own skills, athleticism and acclimation to professional basketball. Generally, development sleepers make the leap from below-average to above-average in their first three seasons in the league, although there are outliers who make the leap much later (Hedo Turkoglu for example).

Possible development sleepers are around every season and this season is no exception. Guys like Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert are all possible development sleepers for next season. These guys are all being drafted higher than their production from the 2008-09 season would warrant. This is largely based on expectations that these players have will take steps forward in their fantasy production next season.

…

Injury sleepers are when an injury occurs to a starter ahead of the potential injury sleeper (bench player) on the depth chart. Thus, the player moves ahead and experiences a sudden and protracted boost in minutes, often resulting in a surge for that player’s fantasy value as well. As we all know, the allocation of minutes is a strong factor in determining fantasy value. Last season, Paul Millsap was a perfect example of an injury sleeper, as he gained fantasy value when Carlos Boozer went down with a knee injury. The other thing to note is that, unlike development sleepers, an injury sleeper is often a temporary sleeper. When the injured player returns to the court, the injury sleeper usually returns to his bench role with reduced minutes and reduced fantasy production.

Source: Fantasy Basketball Cafe

Why is this situation so rare?

Offseason injuries that sideline a starter are rare indeed. When an offseason injury occurs that sidelines a guy for the entire season, that is even more rare. When said injury opens up minutes for a potential development sleeper, that is even rarer.

Even more shockingly, all but the most saavy of fantasy managers have not seemed to notice the immense opportunity. Landry truly is a sleeper in the most traditional sense; he is a player that is flying well under the radar while maintaining great potential to out produce his draft position.

Don’t sleep on the LandRover.

Moving forward with our quest to find the late round and waiver wire gold, we turn our focus to J.R. Smith. If there was some correlation between having a shitload of tattoos and being really good at basketball, then J.R. would be the next Michael Jordan and a guaranteed first round fantasy pick. As a team, the Nuggets would be a dynasty with Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony and the Birdman all on the roster and sporting quite a bit of ink.

Too bad for this guy...

Since that’s not how the world actually works, he’s a mid-round fantasy pick valued solely for his chucking offensive prowess.  Smith is a first round product of the 2004 NBA Draft originally drafted by New Orleans. He came straight out of high school with the reputation as a high-flyer and potent scorer. Five seasons later, we’re still waiting for him to live up to his enormous potential.

Last season, Smith was the sixth man for the Nuggets. He had the primary role of providing a spark off the bench with his ability to score and hit the long long ball (he has serious range and can light it up when he’s hot). J.R. really flourished with this role last season and he averaged about 27 minutes per game during both the regular season and the playoffs.

Since last season, the Nuggets have made a couple of moves that impact that allocation of minutes at the two and three. The Nuggets lost both Dahntay Jones (18.1 minutes per game last season) and Linas Kleiza (22.2 minutes per game last season) while adding Aaron Afflalo (16.7 minutes per game last season). J.R. should now be slated to earn at least 30-32 minutes a night and his breakout sleeper potential will finally be realized.

Last season, Smith was fifth in total three-pointers made. With a few extra minutes this year, there’s no reason he can’t lead the league in treys. He averaged 15.2 points per game last season and with more time on the court, 20 points per game is not out of the question. The biggest knock on Smith has been his consistently been his inconsistency.

He is the definition of a streaky shooter. He will fire away from anywhere on the court at any time. When he is hot fantasy owners will rejoice, but when he is cold he can’t buy a bucket (and your field goal percentage will take a serious hit). Owning J.R. Smith is not for the faint of heart.

As a sixth man, he was out there to score as much as possible as fast as possible. His new role should offer him the chance to settle down on offense a little bit and get into a nice rhythm early on. If Smith can elevate his game to a level where he is scoring and distributing the ball effectively to his teammates, then his fantasy value will reach new heights.

He needs to provide more than just raw offensive production and threes. If he is able to rack up a few assists and a steal or two along the way, he could vastly outperform his Buser Sports ADP of 93rd overall. For reference, Yahoo! has given Smith an O-Rank of 83rd overall.

Let’s take a look at Smith’s per-36 minute stats from last season; he averaged 19.8 points on .446/.754 percent shooting, 2.9 threes, 4.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 2.4 turnovers. Looking at the numbers, Smith’s three point shooting and scoring ability stand out. He has low percentages but that’s the caveat that comes with him (as well as a horrid driving record). If Smith can put a strangle hold on the starting two-guard spot, he could easily approach his 2008-09 per-36 minute numbers.

J.R. Smith is a calculated fantasy risk, as he is slated to miss the first seven games of the season due to his aforementioned driving issues. Despite missing the first seven games, Smith is a solid bet to outperform his draft position in the middle rounds due to a solid increase in PT.

As he has proven in his first five seasons in the Association, he can be hotheaded and volatile both on and off the court. But if he is given the chance to start and see respectable minutes (33 minutes or more per game) he can really be a diamond in the mid-round rough. Smith has the tendency to start off the season slow and then build momentum as the season progresses (check out his All-Star Game splits).

So if you draft him next season, be patient early on and he’ll come around and will eventually make if rain for your fantasy squad.

As the upcoming NBA season approaches it is never too early to begin to think about which players to target to help your fantasy squad. Everyone is looking to find potential sleepers, the players that will outperform their draft position and potentially lead your team to fantasy glory. This year is no different and one player to keep a close eye on early is the New York Knick’s Danilo Gallinari.

No, this is not a Basketball Free For All original.

Gallinari came to New York via Italy as the sixth overall draft pick in the 2008 NBA Draft. He came into the league as another unknown European player with lots of potential, a word that is so often thrown around that it has become trivial. It is also a word that is strongly correlated with the dreaded b-word (bust).

After a rookie season in which he missed 54 games due to a back injury sustained in summer league play, Gallinari is now poised to start for the Knicks. After undergoing back surgery in April, Danilo is healthy and should be given plenty of minutes to prove he is worthy of a lottery pick.

Speaking recently at a Knicks charity event Gallinari touched on his health and his expectations for the coming season: “I feel good…I want to see the expectations, I want to feel the pressure, because that’s what makes you a really good player,” he said. “So I’m happy that there is pressure and people have expectations.”

Coach D’Antoni also gave Gallinari rave reviews saying he looked “good” and “He’s taken a lot of hits and fallen down and gotten back up. He’s getting in better shape as each day goes by.”

Source: The New York Times

The article also suggests that the Rooster will most likely be a starter this season. The Knicks are a team that is looking to develop its young core with well known hopes of making a big acquisition in next summer’s free  agent market. However, no superstar wants to join a team that is lottery-bound, so Coach Mike D’Antoni and the Knicks have to showcase their young talent next season as a draw to Lebron James any potential free agent acquisitions.

Gallinari, along with Wilson Chandler,  seems to be at the forefront of this player development movement in Madison Square Garden. As a result, he should earn somewhere around 30 minutes per game next season. Examining last season’s limited data set, his per 36 minute averages were 14.9 points on .448/.963 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 4.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers.

Not bad for a player in his rookie season, playing injured, and having to adjust to not only rookie NBA life, but life in a new country as well. With his new-found health and a tumultuous rookie season out of the way, what can we expect this year from Gallinari?

Assuming he earns at least 30 minutes a game (for reference he played 14.7 minutes per game last season), he should approach 13.5 points, 2.3 threes, 4.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.2 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. He should again provide strong free throw percentages (90%+) and should continue to hover near or improve upon his rookie field goal percentage.

The break-neck pace (the second highest in the league last season) of Coach D’Antoni’s fantasy-friendly offense should only help to reinforce stability in Gallinari’s numbers. He is also an excellent three point shooter and should contribute quite a few threes here and there. According to early mock drafts, Gallinari is going in the 13th round with an average draft position of 155.4. Yahoo! has given the Rooster an O-Rank of 166th overall.

Guys with limited upside such as: Andres Nocioni, Grant Hill and Peja Stojakovic are all going before Danilo. For the most part we have seen what those guys are capable of producing and barring some injury, trade or massive resurgence, they have nowhere near the potential (there’s that word again) that Gallinari offers.

His main competition at the small forward spot will be Wilson Chandler. As alluded to earlier, he is another young and talented player who is also said to be in the future plans for the post-2010 Knicks. Chandler and Gallinari should compete for minutes but they are both too talented to be relegated to small roles next season.  Both Gallinari and Chandler should see plenty of PT with a complimentary lineup of  Chris Duhon, David Lee, Jared Jeffries, Al Harrington, Nate Robinson, Larry Hughes, Darko Milicic and even possibly Eddy Curry (if only to showcase him to boost his trade value) seeing the majority of the remaining play time.

No matter how the rotation shakes out in New York, Gallinari will be featured prominently as a key piece of the Knicks’ future plans. Don’t sleep on the Rooster as he is almost assured to outperform his 13th round draft position and provide wise managers with solid fantasy dividends.

There’s no denying that the San Antonio Spurs have been one of the most successful franchises in the last decade, compiling four championships in a span of ten years. The only other team to do that recently accomplished the feat this past season and featured some guy named Kobe.

But when talking fantasy, the Spurs are no juggernaut. Let’s face it –- if you’re drafting a fantasy team this year and you take a Spur, chances are his last name is Duncan, Parker or Ginobili.

However, that may all change next season due to several moves the Spurs have made that have put the words fantasy relevant back into the same sentence as San Antonio Spurs. One newly acquired Spur in particular has a good chance to exceed his current average draft position. What may surprise you though, is that this Spur isn’t named Richard Jefferson.

Try Antonio McDyess.

The Spurs have always had a player or two outside of the Big Three that dabbles with fantasy relevance each season. For example, Matt Bonner (no, that was not a typo) or Roger Mason both had fantasy value through several stretches last year. This year, it’s McDyess that stands to gain fantasy relevance by a simple formula — less is more.

Last season as a starter in 30 games with the Detroit Pistons, McDyess averaged 12.1 points on .514/.775 percent shooting, 11.0 boards, 1.6 assists, 0.6 assists, 1.2 blocks and 0.9 turnovers per game. But he did so playing close to 35 minutes a game. Sports writers, fantasy gurus and managers alike were all waiting to see the eventual break down of Antonio McDyess.

Fortunately for McDyess (and Spurs fans), the break down never came –- at least, not physically. It was more like he just ran out of gas. By the time the Pistons reached their first round playoff matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers, McDyess was unable to reach the level of play he did during the month of March, when he had a string of ten double digit scoring games in a row.

Unfortunately for the Pistons, he also played the most minutes of his season during that same stretch — four games of 41 minutes plus, including a marathon 51 minute effort against the Houston Rockets. And the Pistons lost, by the way.

Ouch.

Once the playoffs started, the Cavs easily clamped down on McDyess, allowing him only 26 points total through the first three games. To put things into perspective, McDyess scored 26 points in the Pistons’ game four loss alone. With that loss to the Cavaliers, the 2008-09 Pistons were swept into the history books.

Hey Antonio: want a take-back on the decision to negotiate a buyout with Denver to return to Detroit?

However, Dyess’s situation in San Antonio is better than it could be anywhere else. As a Spur, he could start at either the four or the five alongside Duncan. Theo Ratliff and Matt Bonner aren’t fantastic coming off the bench, but they can provide enough of that ever so important rest for a savvy vet like McDyess.

And with Gregg Popovich being the one head coach notorious for setting his rotations in stone (well, more or less), McDyess could see a steady run of 25-27 minute games, easily a work-load he could handle at this stage in his career.

And with those minutes, expect quality stats, especially in rebounding, blocks and field goal percentage. A line of 8.8 points and 8.2 rebounds on over fifty percent shooting from the field and low turnovers would be a safe bet with 26 minutes per game. Because the Big Three carry the primary offensive load, Mcdyess would be allowed to simply focus on boards and defense –- so it’s very possible his 1.2 blocks remain steady and his field goal percentage rises as a result of getting easy looks and put-backs.

If everything breaks just right, you’re looking at a very nice late round flier in standard leagues, or a solid late round value pick in deeper ones. Currently, McDyess’s Buser Sports average draft position is 147 and his Yahoo! O-rank is 150. This puts his preseason value at around the 13th round in a standard 12-team league.

But (there is always a “but” somewhere, right?), keep an eye on McDyess during training camp and the preseason. The Spurs have some youth in their ranks that they are very high about including DeJuan “I don’t need no stinking ACL’s!” Blair and Ian Mahinmi.

All joking aside, Mahinmi has shown flashes of athleticism, which the Spurs seriously lack in their front court. As a rookie, Blair has enough motivation after being snubbed in the first round of the 2009 NBA Draft to last a lifetime. Let’s just hope his medical miracles of knees can last as long as his will.

Coach Pop and the Spurs have made it no secret that they intend to play these two young big men next season. What will be of concern is whether they cut into those quality minutes McDyess was acquired to play. Training camp and the preseason should give us a better idea, although one must be careful not to read to deeply into preseason games.

But if all indications are correct and McDyess starts alongside Duncan and his minutes per game hit that magic number of 26 or more, it’s very possible ‘Dyess meets or exceeds expectations if drafted after the twelfth round.

Picking up Antonio McDyess in the later rounds of your draft could yield solid dividends from your third or fourth power forward or center, especially if you’re looking for a player to give you quality stats in limited minutes. He may not give you top 100 returns, but by the time the season starts, his average draft position could continue to plummet, making Antonio McDyess a true Sleeper in Seattle San Antonio.