Basketball Free For All

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Lakers who are the 2009 NBA Champions.

The story lines are endless with this championship. Lakers coach Phil Jackson earns his tenth championship ring (six with the Bulls and four with the Lakers) to pass the legendary Red Auerbach as the coach with the most rings in NBA history. Kobe Bryant finally silences the haters as he wins a ring without Shaquille O’Neal (which is an absurd criticism because nobody wins an NBA championship alone).

With the Larry O’Brien trophy in hand, the Lakers will return to L.A. as champions. So how did people react to the Lakers’ convincing defeat of the Orlando Magic in five games? In an all too familiary sequence of events, people rioted all over the world in anger Laker Nation rioted in Los Angeles to celebrate the team’s hard earned victory.

Huh?

Police say they have arrested two residents of a downtown L.A. loft for receiving stolen property after the couple picked up some athletic shoes that had been stolen from a looted shoe store. That would bring the total number of arrests in Sunday night’s post-Lakers-victory melee to 23.

Investigators also said they will be reviewing video to identify other people involved in the violence. Eight Los Angeles police offers suffered minor injuries and 21 people were arrested during Lakers victory celebrations that turned riotous outside the Staples Center, authorities said today.

Following the Lakers’ 99-86 win over the Orlando Magic on Sunday night, officers faced small groups of revelers in downtown Los Angeles who shook passing cars, threw debris and sparked fires.

Source: The Los Angeles Times

Ok, not exactly unprecedented territory here but ridiculous all the same. At least (so far) no one has died because of the revelry in Los Angeles. Can you imagine a more meaningless death than to to die celebrating your team’s championship? Having never experienced such a feeling personally (Suns fan), it is hard to imagine what drives someone to turn from celebrating to looting, but my guess is that it probably involves large quantities of alcohol.

To be reminded that basketball really is the red-headed stepchild of the three most popular American sports, just peruse the basketball coverage that major newspapers run on a daily basis. Take a look at this excerpt from an article in The Wall Street Journal:

But despite the absence of marquee superstars on the Magic, the ratings for the first two games of the finals have been surprisingly good, and early indications are that fans are finding a working-class hero in Orlando’s coach.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, “The Magic’s Coach Just Looks Ordinary”, June 9, 2009 (no link; WSJ articles cost money)

In the words of Mark Jackson: Are you kidding me?

Let’s look at some of the evidence that supports Dwight Howard’s claim to being a legitimate superstar.

2009-09 averages: 20.7 points on 57.2/59.4, 13.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.9 blocks and 3.1 turnovers.

Seems pretty good so far.

Led the NBA in blocks this past season?

Check.

Led the NBA in rebounds this past season?

Check

Led his team to it’s first NBA Finals in 15 years?

Check.

First team All-NBA?

Check.

Defensive player of the year?

Check.

All Star?

Check.

Oh and speaking of being an All Star…

Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard, this year’s leading vote-getter in the NBA All-Star Balloting program presented by T-Mobile with 3,150,181 votes, became the first player in balloting history to crack the 3 million-vote ceiling.

Source: NBA.com

Not only did he start in this season’s All-Star game, but he actually set a record for the most number of votes ever received. And that is even more impressive considering Yao Ming has a built-in fanbase of 1.3 billion people.

In five seasons, he has missed only three games (407/410 regular season games).

Oh, and he’s only 23.

I rest my case.

For being such critical statistics, pace and possessions are rarely referenced except in the most general sense. For example, you often hear that the Golden State Warriors consistently play at one of the fastest paces in the league. Or, a team like the San Antonio Spurs is usually said to average a low number of possessions per game. From listening to the generalities, it is apparent that pace and possessions are related, but how so?

Pace is simply an estimation of the number of possessions a team has per-48 minutes (length of regulation game). Pace is tracked year by year at Basketball Reference, which is the gold standard for free online basketball statistics.

What then, precisely, is a possession? A possession is a team’s uninterrupted control of the basketball and can only end in a variety of ways (a possession is different than a play; a possession can encompass multiple plays). A possession can end with a made field goal, a defensive rebound, a turnover, or in a foul being called.

There are two ways to approximate the number of possessions in a game from statistics that can be viewed in a box score. These methods come from Dean Oliver’s groundbreaking and influential book, Basketball on Paper. If you haven’t read it and are interested in learning about advanced basketball statistics or just interested in gaining abetter understanding of the game, there is no better resource out there.

A simple approximation of the number of possessions is: FGA – OREB + TOV + (0.4 x FTA). The more accurate formula is as follows: FGA – ((OREB / (OREB + DDREB)) x (FGA – FGM) x 1.07) + TOV + (0.4 x FTA). In the latter formula DDREB refers to the opponent’s number of total defensive rebounds. The other values should be familiar to all basketball enthusiasts. If you are not a basketball enthusiast, you have somehow taken a google detour. Welcome and enjoy!

To make it more concrete, examine Game One of the 2009 of the NBA Finals, which featured a Magic beatdown care of Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers. In order to estimate the number of possessions, you simply pick one team and use their numbers from the box score to run the calculations. It doesn’t matter which team you use, as the number of possessions are roughly the same (although one team could have a couple of possessions more than the other team).  Both the simpler and more accurate calculations provide similar numbers of 86.6 possessions and 85.0 possessions, respectively.

Where does this game fall in terms of pace relative to the league average in this season? According to Basketball Reference, the league average was 91.7 possessions per game. The Los Angeles Lakers played at the fifth fastest pace in the league, averaging 94.4 possessions per game. The Orlando Magic’s 92.3 possessions per game was good for the twelfth fastest pace in the league. With it being the postseason, it is understandable that the game’s pace has slowed a bit as defenses tighten up and teams play more in the half court.

With all that being said, why does the number of possessions or pace even important at all?

In general terms, it is important to recognize that pace can distort statistics by judging teams based upon different numbers of attempts, for example. It is important to recognize when to use pace-adjusted statistics (Offensive and Defensive Ratings for example) and when to use raw statistics (points per game or points allowed per game for example). For fantasy purposes, adjusting for pace is less important as what really matters is what was actually accumulated. For real life, pace-adjusted statistics allow for comparisons of different teams on an even scale, which deprives a team like the Warriors of it’s pace inflation.

On an individual game level, like examining Game One of the 2009 NBA Finals, pace gives another statistic to piece together why a certain team won and why the other team lost. Imagine the fastest paced team in the league and the slowest paced team played against each other. If the fastest team won the game and the game was played at a fast pace, you could point to the pace and say that the fastest team dictated the pace of them game to their advantage.

Understanding and being familiar with more diverse statistics allows you to marry argument and evidence. All too often arguments are decided by rhetoric backed by zealotry. Don’t fall into that common trap and look for the evidence to back up your opinions based on your personal observations.

The Orlando Magic’s Jameer Nelson made his return to action from shoulder surgery in game one of the Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday night. The results were not encouraging, although Nelson’s return to action is certainly not the sole reason. Nelson’s return had a negative effect on starting point guard Rafer Alston.

Rafer Alston helped guide the Orlando Magic to the NBA Finals, then helped them take a lead after the first quarter of Game 1.

Then he sat, for a long time — way too long.

By the time Alston got back in the game, his rhythm was gone, and so was Orlando’s lead. He never recovered and neither did the Magic, whose strong start quickly turned into a 100-75 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers.

On Friday, Alston acknowledged the difficulty of sitting the entire second quarter while Jameer Nelson played all 12 minutes — a decision Stan Van Gundy admitted was a mistake — in his return from a shoulder injury.

“It was odd. I mean, I think everyone can see that. That’s unusual to start the game and then you don’t even touch the court in the second quarter,” Alston said.

Source: Associated Press

As feared, Nelson’s return to the Magic’s rotation upset Alston’s rhythym and also affected his mental disposition. As mentioned earlier on these pages (A Finals Jameeracle?, May 31, 2009), not knowing how many minutes a player will get from game-to-game can have a serious negative effect on the player’s production. These negative mental side effects are compounded by the effects on the player’s rhythym. In short, Nelson’s return took something that wasn’t broken and busted it up. The fault for this is not Nelson’s; it actually lies on the Magic’s head coach Stan Van Gundy.

Van Gundy should definitely been more aware of how Nelson’s return would affect Alston. As a coach, Van Gundy has always been quick to admit when is wrong and he has already taken responsibility for not managing Nelson’s minutes effectively in game one. After all, Nelson and Alston have never played together in the same game on the same team as Rafer was acquired after Jameer’s regular season-ending shoulder injury.

Again, trying to rotate three players for one position is not an easy task and the simplest solution to the dilemma is to reduce the rotation to two players. This is precisely what is meant when a coach is said to be tightening up their playoff rotation. So who should be the odd man out between Nelson, Alston and Anthony Johnson in the Magic’s point guard rotation for the 2009 NBA Finals? As I’ve argued earlier, Nelson should be the odd man out and be used primarily as injury insurance to one of the two point guards that helped the Magic advance at each stage of the postseason. However, the damage is already done and it is up to Van Gundy to correct his error.

Let’s just hope this miracle mistake doesn’t end up costing the Magic franchise it’s first Larry O’Brien trophy.

When writing about the greatest of all time of anything (person, place or thing) it is difficult to not get pulled into certain traps. For Michael Jordan, the one true king of basketball, the classic trap is to try and identify ‘the next Jordan’ or to argue that another player is ‘better than Jordan.’ Trying to find ‘the next Jordan’ is fool’s gold as there will never be another quite like him; it’s borderline blasphemy.

Jordan means a lot of different things to different people (just ask a random sampling of people in both Chicago and in Salt Lake City what they think of Jordan and you will most likely hear contradictory statements). What do you associate with Jordan? Is it:

• Six rings (with six finals MVPs)?
• Five regular season MVPs?
• Clutch shooting?
• Slam dunk contests?
• Fourteen all star games?
• Style (tongue wagging or the fist pump)?
• Killer instinct?
• Money ($93,772,500 in salary and a small country’s GDP in endorsements)?
• The flu?

Or maybe someone will talk about his career averages of 30.1 points on 49.7/32.7/83.5 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.3 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 2.7 turnovers. Or maybe his best season? Hard to decide but from a fantasy perspective, I would probably take the 1987-88 season. In that year, Jordan played all 82 games and averaged 35.0 points on 53.5/13.2/84.1 percent shooting, 0.1 threes, 5.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 3.2 steals, 1.6 blocks, and 3.1 turnovers per game. His only real flaw was that he hadn’t yet developed his range out to the three point line. What is really striking though is his defensive production and his field goal percentage (anything above fifty percent from a guard is gravy).

Which begs the question: how often do you hear about Jordan’s defense?

Defense is what separates Jordan from all who have come after him. Half of what made Jordan the greatest of all time is that he played with such incredible intensity and passion on both ends of the floor. After all, he didn’t make nine All-Defensive teams for nothing. Or lead the league in steals in three different seasons (also second in career steal totals after only John Stockton).

Consider ‘the shot’ in Game Six of the 1998 NBA Finals. Heading into that game in the United Center in Salt Lake, the Bulls led the series 3-2. The score was 86-85 in favor of the Jazz, who had the ball and the last shot. Karl Malone had the ball in the post… Well, just see for yourself.

Every basketball fan (especially the Utah Jazz fans) remember that moment very clearly. It was to be Jordan’s lost shot as a Chicago Bull. It capped Jordan’s legacy as the greatest of all time. It is a shot for the ages. But what about his defense and hustle? Nobody talks about how Jordan came baseline in the low post and stripped the Mailman of his final precious delivery of the game (and ultimately of the season). Nobody talks about how Jordan recovers the loose ball, which ended the Jazz’s possibility of scoring on what would prove to be the second-to-last possession of the Jazz’s season.

Everybody remembers the devastatingly clutch shots Jordan hit along the way and the dreams of other greats that he personally crushed. Ironically, few remember the tenacious defense that gave him the opportunity to take the shot and crush the hopes and dreams of others. Remember, if he doesn’t steal the  ball from Malone, he never has the opportunity to hit ‘the shot.’ To this day, no one has been able to impose his will on the game of basketball like Jordan could in his prime. And it all started on the defensive end of the floor.

Do Michael justice; remember him for both ‘the shot’ and the steal.

There is ample reason to celebrate in Orlando tonight with the Magic making their first NBA Finals appearance since 1995 when they had a young center named Shaquille O’Neal. Nowadays, the Magic have another young center roaming the paint but may have just been given another reason to celebrate. Rumors now have point guard Jameer Nelson possibly making a Finals appearance as he has made great strides since he dislocated his shoulder in February.

They are encouraged by Nelson’s rehabilitation so much that they will evaluate the possibility of the all-star playing if the club reaches the NBA Finals against the Lakers, the Sentinel has learned.

Vander Weide said the team is exploring whether Nelson can return after undergoing shoulder surgery Feb. 19. He hasn’t played since he was injured Feb. 3 against the Dallas Mavericks.

Although Nelson wouldn’t be in prime condition, Vander Weide said, “the chance to get an all-star point guard on the floor for 15 minutes a game…you’d have to look at that.”

Source: Orlando Sentinal

With the Magic playing incredible basketball right now, the question arises of whether the Magic even try and play Nelson at all? After all, if it ain’t broke then don’t break it. Both starting point guard Rafer Alston and backup veteran point guard Anthony Johnson have played well throughout the postseason. Is it worth messing with the successful tandem that has anchored the Orlando backcourt to bring Nelson back into the mix?

This past season Jameer was putting up really nice numbers, averaging16.7 points on 50.3/45.3/88.7 percent shooting, 3.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.1 blocks and 2.0 turnovers per game.  He scored efficiently from the field and was especially deadly from behind the arc. Most impressively, however, was Nelson’s defensive presence on the floor (compare Nelson with his counterpart’s per-48 minute production).

There is a serious risk in bringing Nelson in at this stage in the game. He is obviously going to be very rusty and will most definitely not be in game shape. With over four months of rest, Nelson may not be mentally prepared to step into the pressure of the Finals without having a few full contact practices under his belt. Also, trying to rotate three players for one position (see the Lakers with Derek Fisher, Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar; they can really only expect solid production from one of the three on any given night). When players do not know how many minutes there are going to play on any given night, it can have a negative effect on their play.

Another Lakers parallel seems relevant here. The 2007-08 Lakers trying to work Andrew Bynum back into the rotation during the playoffs had mixed success. There are mentle hurdles that players must overcome in order to truly play at full strength on a recently injured body part (for example a player can favor the healthy leg and actually damage their healthy leg in the process). Although the doctors may have cleared Nelson’s body to play basketball, there is no telling whether he is mentally prepared to play at full strength effectively.

Both Alston and Johnson have been effective enough to believe that the Magic can legitimately challenge the Lakers in this year’s NBA Finals with or without Jameer Nelson. Although Nelson would probably be the best suited to defend Derek Fisher, the Lakers’ point guards do not play as integral of a role in the Lakers offense than other point guards in the league. However it would probably be wise to get Nelson into the best shape possible to insure against an injury to either of the Magic’s other point guards. It’s hard to fault a team for having too much depth at the point.

Mo Williams laid out a fantastic stat curse after Cleveland’s tough game three loss in Orlando. During his post-game remarks, Williams laid it all there:

“We’re the best team in basketball,” he said.

Really? The Cavaliers, winners of 66 regular-season games and their first eight straight in the playoffs, certainly haven’t looked superior to the Orlando Magic.

They can’t stop Dwight Howard inside. They can’t contain Orlando’s squadron of outside shooters. They are missing easy, open shots. They’re not giving Lebron James enough support, and they trail 2-1 in the Eastern Conference finals.

Williams remains confident.

“They deserve respect,” he said. “They are a good team. But we are the best team in basketball. I don’t feel that they’ve had to adjust to us one time in the series.”

So, Mo. You’re sure the Cavaliers will win Game 4 on Tuesday night and rally to win the best-of-seven series. Willing to guarantee it?

“Guarantee we’re going to win the series? Yeah, yeah,” he said. “We are down 2-1. But there is nobody on this team and definitely not myself that says we are not going to win this series. Yeah, it is going to be tough. We know that. We get this game tomorrow, go home, still got home-court advantage.

“We don’t see ourselves losing two out of three at home.”

Source: ESPN

So how did Williams respond to his own stat curse guarantee?

In nearly 46 minutes of action, Williams tallied 18 points on 33/00/89 percent shooting, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 0 blocks, 1 turnover and 2 fouls. Not exactly All Star caliber numbers and not what you would expect from a starting point guard (in overtime no less).

Makes you wonder what the fuss was about when he was supposedly snubbed for an All Star bid. After all, All Stars are supposed to play their best basketball when it matters most and last night it really mattered in so many ways, the least of which being to back up his guarantee.

As of now, I’d be more inclined to believe a guarantee from Lehman Brothers or Bernard Madoff.

One of the big rumors near the trade deadline this season was the Phoenix Suns sending Shaquille O’Neal to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic.

“The Phoenix Suns discussed a potential trade with the Cleveland Cavaliers which would have paired Shaquille O’Neal with LeBron James for a run at the NBA title, two NBA executives familiar with the talks said Thursday morning. A Cavs official, however, said any talks regarding O’Neal have since ended.

One agent said the Suns told him they weren’t doing a deal. The Cavs’ discussions with Phoenix centered on sending Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic to the Suns.”

Source: Yahoo! Sports

Anyone think the Cavs would want a take-back on this one?

After watching them get man-handled by Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic, do you think the Cavs brass are dying to hit reset? Shaq is one of the few centers that can guard Howard one-on-one without getting annihilated. He also can get into Howard’s head, causing him to make poor decisions and to get into foul trouble (using that all important ‘veteran saavy’).

Wallace does a decent enough job guarding Howard, but is such an assent on the offensive end that the Magic don’t really have to guard him. This allows his man to act as a help defender or weak-side shot blocker. When guarding Wallace, Howard doesn’t get into foul trouble as much, which is critical to slowing down the Magic (although Marcin Gortat has proven to be a force off the bench as well).

With Lebron James, Shaq and Mo Williams the Cavaliers would have three players in the starting lineup capable of dropping twenty points on any given night. Even if they had to throw Wally Szczerbiak into the deal to make it sweet enough for the Suns, the Cavs would still be in much better shape and would probably not be facing elimination at the hands of the Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Hindsight is 20/20 — which coincidentally is what the Cavs need to avoid elimination (20 points and 20 boards from the center position).

With the top two seeds still alive and kicking in the Western Conference, both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets avoided upsets on their way to the Western Conference Finals. However, both teams took divergent routes this season to arrive at the same destination; the doorstep of the Promised Land.

For the Lakers, it seems as though their season was predestined from the moment training camp began. Kobe Bryant and company finished the season with the second best record in the league, second only to Eastern Conference power house, the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Lakers also sported high profile wins against some of the toughest competition this season and stole a game from the Cavs at the Q (39-2 record at home this season, with the Lakers being the only team able to dethrone the King at home;  The Philadelphia 76′ers beat the Cavaliers at home in the final game of the season by one point with Lebron James in street clothes).

For the Nuggets, the season started ominously with the front office kicking Marcus Camby to the curb for peanuts (well, salary cap relief). At that time, the Nuggets faithful were despairing the loss of their defensive anchor for nothing in return. Little did they know that the front office had an ace up their sleeve and would pull-off one of the best trades since the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol from Memphis last season.

In what has proven to be a franchise-altering move, the Nuggets shipped out Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess (who was ultimately waived and re-signed with Detroit for a better shot at winning a title… whoops). Since that time, the Nuggets have gone from possible lottery team to legitimate championship contender. If Allen Iverson truly is the Answer, the Denver Nuggets certainly weren’t interested in finding out what the question was. In contrast to the Lakers, this team has had to prove the doubters wrong every step of the way on their journey to being one of the last four teams standing.

So how do these two teams compare to one another?

Tale of the Tape: The Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 65-17
W-L%: .793
Rank: 2nd

The Lakers played consistently good basketball throughout the course of the regular season. Outside of Laker Nation, the Lakers probably didn’t get quite of enough credit for their accomplishments this season with Lebron James, and to a lesser extent Dwayne Wade and the Celtics’ Big Three garnering most of the media’s attention. They also maintained the best record in the West even with Andrew Bynum missing 32 games leading up to the playoffs.

Pace: 94.4, 5th
O-Rating: 112.7, 3rd
D-Rating: 104.6, 6th
Differential: +8.1 (O-Rating minus D-Rating)

Of the numerous basketball cliches out there, one in particular describes this Lakers team when they are firing on all cylinders. It is the well known saying that ‘their defense creates their offense.’  But for this Lakers squad it really holds true, with Trevor Ariza leading the charge (and earning himself a nice raise in the process going into free agency this season). Ariza, who is the Lakers’ defense personified, gets into the passing lanes, pushes the tempo and finishes way above the rim without ever giving up on a play. When Ariza and the Lakers play inspired basketball, they are really an exciting team to watch.

Offensively, you cannot overlook three time champion and former MVP Kobe Bryant. He draws a huge amount of attention from opposing teams’ defenses and makes life much easier for his teammates to get high-percentage looks. At the same time though, last season’s key acquisition, Pau Gasol, has made it much easier for Bryant to get good looks as well. Having Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum as your backup weapons makes the Lakers a very dangerous team. Add in great perimeter shooting and you have a team that punishes you for doubling to try and stop Bryant. They truly make you pick your poison.

First Round, v. UTA: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. HOU: 4-3

In the first round of the playoffs, the Lakers took care of business fairly efficiently in taking five games to dispatch of the Utah Jazz. However, the conference semifinals provided the Lakers with a much bigger challenge in the Tracy McGrady-less Houston Rockets. When Yao Ming went down for the season after game three, the Lakers and everyone else in the world counted the young and injured team out of the running.

The trouble for the Lakers was that the Rockets didn’t get the memo that everyone else in the world got that the series was over and they played like their (playoff) lives depended on it.  The simple fact that it took the Lakers seven games to move past the Rockets (refer to Lebron James, Mo Williams and the rest of the Cavs to see what a championship team truly looks like) has given legitimacy to the argument that this team is mentally focused enought to win a championship. However the 2007-08 Celtics didn’t exactly cruise to victory against the Hawks or Cavaliers in the first two rounds of the playoffs either.

Tale of the Tape: The Denver Nuggets

Record: 54-28
W-L%: .659
Rank: 5th

The Nuggets played like an entirely different team this season by both addition by subtraction and also by, well, addition. The Nuggets gained by subtracting Allen Iverson, who is the epitome of a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer in decline. Iverson is unwilling to admit that he can no longer carry a team on his back and unable to accept any lesser role. This is probably the ultimate chemistry killer in the locker room. Billups, in an absolute contrast to AI, is the consummate professional and a savvy, championship proven veteran (they don’t call him Mr. Big Shot for nothing). You replace an undersized and disgruntled shoot-first point guard with a professional, pass-first floor general who demands a commitment to defense from his teammates and you have a vastly improved Nuggets squad this year.

Pace: 94.3, 6th
O-Rating: 110.4, 7th
D-Rating: 106.8, 8th
Differential: +3.6

Much like the Lakers, the Nuggets play high tempo basketball and especially push the ball and force the issue on their home court. Defensively, both Nene and Kenyon Martin play physical defense in the paint and tend to force jump shooting big men like Dirk Nowitzki out of their element (although to Dirk’s credit he played phenomenal basketball against Denver in the Western Conference Semifinals). What really stands out when looking over this Denver Nuggets squad is that they played great team defense, which is exactly what they’ll need to do to try and limit Kobe Bryant. Dahntay Jones, despite earning minutes from George Karl based on his perimeter defense, is simply over-matched against Bryant. It must be a concentrated and carefully executed five man strategy if you hope to stop the Black Mamba.

Offensively, this team is a true partnership with Billups and Carmelo Anthony sharing the leadership onus for this team. Billups calls the plays and initiates the offense while Melo is the finisher. Off the bench, J.R. Smith provides instant fire and has matured from playing alongside Billups (although he is still J.R. Smith so keep that in mind). He is prone to occasionally taking ill-advised jumpers or pull-up threes. But when this guy is on, he can absolutely make it rain. Smith is the true X-Factor for the Nuggets offense.

First Round, v. NOH: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. DAL: 4-1

Melo could not being player better basketball this postseason (27.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists on 48/45/83 percent shooting). Him and Dirk really battled last series with Anthony rising to the challenge and hitting big baskets when they mattered most. Chauncey Billups is right there alongside Melo in terms of playoff production (22.1 points, 7.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds on 49/54/96 percent shooting) and impact on ball games. As a result, the Nuggets made quick work of both the Hornets and the Mavericks along the way.

Regular Season Matchups

The Lakers and Nuggets played four regular season games this year, with the Lakers holding the 3-1 advantage. But upon closer examination, the team’s head-to-head play is not so clear-cut.

• Game One: 11/01/08. Lakers 104, Nuggets 97 (No Billups).
• Game Two: 11/21/08. Nuggets 90, Lakers 104.
• Game Three: 02/27/09. Lakers 79, Nuggets 90 (No Bynum).
• Game Four: 04/09/09. Nuggets 102, Lakers 116.

One of the Lakers’ three wins came against an Iverson-led Nuggets team, which, as discussed earlier, is essentially a different team. Empty win, Lakers 0-0. The second Lakers win was played out by two teams at full strength. Lakers 1-0. The third game involves a Bynum-less Lakers team, which is a different team as well. Lakers 1-0. The fourth and final game was again played out at full strength and again resulted in a Lakers win. Lakers 2-0.

Slam dunk, the Lakers are going to sweep the Nuggets in this series then, right? Not so fast. If you look at regular season games one through four again, paying particular attention to home court (the second team listed above was the home team), the Lakers two wins at full strength were both at the Staples Center. The two games that were thrown out for missing key players both occurred in Denver, where Denver is much more likely to play better basketball. While not providing hard evidence in favor of Denver winning the series, these few games definitely don’t give me any reason to count out the Denver Nuggets yet.

Position Battles

Point Guard: Advantage Nuggets. Hands down, and it’s not even close. Billups is a vastly superior floor general to Derek Fisher, although Billups is a better defensive assignment for Fish than Aaron Brooks proved to be last series. Fisher was absolutely embarrassed at times by Brooks’ speed and looked his age (34). Not to take anything away from Fisher, who is a great piece for the Lakers, but  he is clearly overmatched here.

Shooting Guard: Advantage Lakers. Hands down, and it’s not even close (again). I’m sorry but Bryant is better than Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith combined. You better hope that Smith is ready to play lock-down defense, because Jones will be into early foul trouble in at least a couple of games in this series. One of the top five players on the planet and a nightmare to guard.

Small Forward: Advantage Nuggets. Again, not to take anything away from Trevor Ariza, but Anthony is clearly the better player. Ariza’s quickness may get the better of Melo at times, but Anthony’s strength will likewise cause problems for Trevor on the defensive end. Melo has forced his name into the discussion of best players in the postseason and I fully expect that trend to continue in the immediate future.

Power Forward: Advantage Lakers. Kenyon Martin is a very physical defender and could possibly cause Pau Gasol to lose his focus and start trying to get the referee’s ear. However, Gasol can stretch the floor and play with his back to the basket with equal skill. Martin is much more limited offensively which allows Gasol to conserve more of his energy for the offensive end.

Center: Push. Bynum has not fully proven that he is healthy and ready to be a factor in this series. Sure, he did play much improved basketball in the later games of the Rockets series, but he was also playing against a team without a true center or anyone who can body up on him (he is a beast). Nene has also not proven that he can be a consistent factor on the road in the post season, which is of crucial importance if the Nuggets hope to have a chance at upsetting the Lakers.

Bench: Push. This is a hard decision to make. Chris ‘the Birdman’ Andersen is the heart and sould of this Nuggets team and he, like Ariza, has earned himself a nice raise this season heading into free agency. He gets the crowd in the game. He blocks shots and alters way more shots than he actually touches. He provides highlight reel finishes in the open court. Besides him, the Nuggets have Anthony Carter, J.R. Smith and Linas Klieza to provide quality minutes.

The Lakers also have an extremely solid bench with depth at every position. Lamar Odom, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton all provide production off the bench and can step in if an injury were to occur to a starting teammate. The Lakers generally only need Odom and other of these guys to have a big game and they are virtually unbeatable. The bench (more so than even the Bynum v. Nene matchup) will be hugely important in this series.

Final Questions

Which team will show the mental toughtness of a championship team, even through adversity?

Can the Denver Nuggets overcome the Lakers’ home court advantage?

Where will game four be played?