Basketball Free For All

2009 NBA Draft Results

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Mock drafts often seem like such pointless endeavors. The minute a team trades up or down, the sanctity of the entire mock has been violated. And this year, it is almost a guarantee that there will be movement on Thursday with many teams more focused on shedding salary instead of trying to improve. So instead of trying to predict that which cannot be predicted, let’s take a look at last year’s draft.

How will the class of 2008 be remembered when compared against the greatest classes of all time? 2003? 1996? 1984? One year later and the draft class of 2008 is looking very strong but definitely has a long ways to go before being mentioned in the same sentence as the aforementioned draft classes.

2008 NBA Draft

1. Derrick Rose
2. Michael Beasley
3. O.J. Mayo
4. Russell Westbrook
5. Kevin Love
6. Danilo Gallinari
7. Eric Gordon
8. Joe Alexander
9. D.J. Augustin
10. Brook Lopes
11. Jerryd Bayless
12. Jason Thompson
13. Brandon Rush
14. Anthony Randolph
15. Robin Lopez
16. Marreese Speights
17. Roy Hibbert
18. JaVale McGee
19. J.J. Hickson
20. Alexis Ajinca
21. Ryan Anderson
22. Courtney Lee
23. Kosta Koufas
24. Serge Ibaka
25. Nicolas Batum
26. George Hill
27. Darrell Arthur
28. Donte Greene
29. DJ White
30. JR Giddens

Second round notables: Mario Chalmers (#34), DeAndre Jordan (#35), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (#37), Chris Douglas-Roberts (#40), Sean Singletary (#42), Goran Dragic (#45), Bill Walker (#47), Mike Taylor (#55).

Besides a few head turners, the first round is stacked from top to bottom with guys who made an immediate impact in the NBA. That is a rare phenomenon in draft history. Looking back one year later we start to see which players might end up being busts and which players might end up being steals.

Potential Busts

As far as biggest busts (so far) of the 2008 NBA Draft, both Danilo Gallinari or Joe Alexander are making strong cases to be considered 2008’s top bottom dog. While it is clearly too early to be writing their professional basketball obituaries, both players are hindered by their high draft position (6th and 8th overall, respectively). Gallinari should probably be considered the second biggest bust after Alexander for two reasons.

First, Gallinari had legitimate medical reasons for not performing well in his rookie season (reoccurring back injury). With the back injury almost totally behind him, Gallinari now has to prove that he should not be considered a bust and that he belongs in the league. He has to take those flashes of brilliance he has shown on the court and turn them into consistent production. And second, Gallinari has an amazing nickname: The Rooster. If that doesn’t convince you that Joe Alexander should be considered a bigger bust, I don’t know what will.

Joe Alexander, on the other hand, does not have such convenient excuses. If you look at Alexander’s stats by position, he was clearly outplayed by his his opponent on the other team. Regardless of whether he played the three or four, Alexander ended up being a negative for the Bucks. He was less bad playing the four than the three but he was thoroughly outplayed (The Rooster’s stats by position for comparison’s sake).

In an interesting development, the Buck’s just traded Richard Jefferson to the Spurs for the carcasses (and expiring contracts) of Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas. In addition, Milwaukee moved Oberto to the Pistons for Amir Johnson. That just cleared up about 35 minutes per game at the small forward position and brought in more competition at the four. Obviously salary relief was one major concern for the Bucks, but they are also trying to free up some playing time for Alexander in order to try and prove that he wasn’t a total bust.

Steals of the Draft

One of the biggest steals of the draft came when New Jersey selected Brook Lopez with the tenth pick overall. Playing for a New Jersey Nets team in total transition, Lopez has been better than advertised and may end up being one of the top players in the 2008 Class. Before getting into it, let’s just get the obligitory Brook and Robin Lopez comparison out of the way. Now we can move on.

In looking at Brook stats from his rookie year, there are a couple of things that jump out. First, and most importantly, is his efficieny for a big man. Anytime you have a legit seven footer that shoots 53 percent from the field and 79 from the line it is a very good thing. Second, his block totals are very nice (1.9 per game) for a rookie center in the NBA and contain great promise. If you drafted Brook Lopez in your fantasy leagues last season, congratulations; you probably have a nice (fantasy) trophy to show for it.

The second biggest steal of the draft (22nd overall) may have actually come from the late second round: Orlando’s Courtney Lee. Lee played a pivotal role in the Magic’s NBA Finals appearance this season despite being remembered more for his missed shots. Lee will probably end up being a very solid player in the league and has already shown his all-around game. He can shoot, defend, pass the ball and take it to the rack and played very confident basketball during most of the regular season.

Second Round Studs

As in every draft, there are a handful of guys taken in the second round that turn out to have solid careers. Rashard Lewis and Gilbert Arenas are probably the two most commonly cited examples. The first player who might fit that bill is Mario Chalmers. Chalmers (selected34th  overall) did an admirable job as a rookie point guard for the Heat and helped get them into the Playoffs after a very disappointing season in 2007-08. That shooting guard of theirs might have had something to do with their playoff appearance as well…

The final potential second round stud is little-known Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Despite being offensively challenged, Mbah a Moute (drafted 37th overall) has found a way to stay on the court: through solid defense. On a team coached by Scott Skiles, that is pretty much all you need to earn a steady spot in the rotation. As Luc develops, he has the potential to develop into a valuable player in the league. For where he was taken in the draft, Luc should definitely outperform expectations.

There is an overall lesson that can be taken from looking back at past drafts. It doesn’t matter where your draft pick is; value can be found throughout the draft. What really matters is who is doing the picking. Isn’t it strange that certain teams seem to always kill the draft no matter where their picks are? What is really important is to have good management that does their due diligence. The scouting, the workouts, and the numbers are what really separates a team that sees the diamond in the rough from the team that goes for the flavor of the week.

The Los Angeles Clippers Memphis Grizzlies win the 2009 NBA Draft Lottery!

1. Los Angeles (17.7%)
2. Memphis (8.3%)
3. Oklahoma City (13.2%)
4. Sacramento (17.7%)
5. Washington (13.7%)
6. Minnesota (38.5%)
7. Golden State (60.0%)
8. New York (72.5%)
9. Toronto (81.3%)
10. Milwaukee (87.0%)
11. New Jersey (90.4%)
12. Charlotte (93.5%)
13. Indiana (96.0%)
14. Phoenix (98.2%)

Although the Clippers won the Blake Griffin Sweepstakes, the Memphis Grizzlies are the ones that really defied that odds and upgraded the most in the lottery. With only an 8.3 percent chance of landing the second pick in this year’s draft, Memphis overcame the biggest odds to secure its lottery pick. With the second pick, the player with the biggest upside is Spanish guard Ricky Rubio. However, the Grizzlies recently traded Kyle Lowry to Houston in a move that was widely interpreted as a sign of support for their young starting point guard out of Ohio State, Mike Conley.

A few months later, how would it look if Memphis turns around and drafts another point guard in this season’s draft? To look at it from another perspective, does it really matter what Conley thinks about the move at all? Well, yes and no. From management’s perspective, the team should take the best player available with the second pick of the draft (no). From a coach’s perspective, it is important to show public support for your point guard because he is the filter between the coaching staff and the players. He makes the entire offense and defense function (yes).

Positional needs can always be addressed during the offseason and even up until the trade deadline. However, a second pick overall allows you the opportunity to get premier talent on the cheap. If you draft by position instead of by talent and ceiling with the second pick in the draft, you end up with Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan. Although Memphis does lack size, passing on Rubio could end up being a “Bowie” moment for the Grizzlies franchise as Rubio has the potential to be a very special player.

Regarding the “real” winner of the draft lottery, the Clippers have an opportunity that they can’t screw up. They can’t screw this up, can they? The first step to success for L.A.’s other team is to draft Blake Griffin. No need to spend money on costly workouts or interviews this year. Second, get rid of Zach Randolph. Worst. Possession. Ever. If I am Clippers owner Donald Sterling (which, thankfully, I am not), I have already called, texted or twittered every other owner in the league to personally let them know that Z-Bo is available. That is addition by subtraction (Randolph) and just plain old addition (Griffin). Success!

One of the most anticipated and least understood hallmarks of the NBA season is rapidly approaching. In just over a month, the 2009 NBA Draft will take place at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Before teams can really start to strategize though, the Draft Lottery must first take place.

This year’s Draft Lottery will take place on May 17, 2009 and will alter the fate of franchises, as they have each year since the lottery’s inception in 1985. By most accounts, the lottery system was established to prevent intentional tanking, which many said the Houston Rockets did in order to acquire top draft prospect Hakeem Olajuwon. The irony of the situation is that the Chicago Bulls selected an athletic guard from North Carolina named Michael Jordan with the third pick overall.

So the Rockets’ perceived tanking did not even net them the best player of the 1984 draft class. However, you cannot fault the Rockets franchise for taking The Dream with the first overall pick. His size and athleticism were a slam dunk to translate immediately to the NBA. Almost nobody could have predicted that Jordan would eventually become the league’s best player of all time (well, maybe legendary UNC Coach Dean Smith might have been able to see what was to come or Jordan himself). But I digress…

For the fourteen teams that failed to make the playoffs this year, this Tuesday evening will be one of the most highly anticipated events of the off season. The fate of fourteen franchises rests upon fourteen ping-pong balls and a few independent accountants.

How the Lottery Actually Works

Everyone knows that the draft lottery involves ping-pong balls with teams being assigned a certain probability of obtaining the top three picks. However, few appreciate the subtleties of exactly how the draft lottery is carried out.

Each of the fourteen ping-pong balls is assigned a number, from one through fourteen. For each of the top three picks, four ping-pong balls are selected, with the order of the numbers being irrelevant. By not paying attention to the order in which the balls are selected, it reduces the number of different combinations from24,024 to 1,001 (the 1,001st  combination, 11-12-13-14, does not belong to any team; it is disregarded if it is ever chosen in order to provide a nice, even number for assigning odds).

These number combinations are assigned to the fourteen lottery teams with the team with the worst record “owning” 250 combinations and the team with the best record “owning” a paltry 5 combinations. Thus, this season the Sacramento Kings have a twenty-five percent chance of securing the first pick in this year’s draft and obtaining this year’s consensus number one pick, Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin. On the other end of the spectrum, the Phoenix Suns have a half of a percent chance of winning the 2009 Griffin Sweepstakes. For a complete listing of odds by team and by pick number, refer to the 2009 NBA Draft Wikipedia page.

But what happens if two teams end up with the same (bad) record? How are the number of combinations assigned? This season, there were three pairs of lottery teams that ended the regular season with the same records: Wizards and Clippers (19-63); Timberwolves and Grizzlies (24-58); and Bucks and Nets (34-48). Let’s use the example of the Wizards and Clippers to illustrate how tied records affect the distribution of ping-pong ball combinations.

The Wizards and Clippers tied for the second best-worst record in the league by notching up nineteen wins each in highly disappointing seasons for both franchises. Under normal circumstances, the second worst team is assigned 199 combinations and the third worst team is assigned 156 combinations (giving a combined total of 355). However, in a tie situation, the teams are assigned an almost even share with random drawing determining which team gains the additional ping pong ball (one team gets 178 ping-pong balls and the other team gets 177). This season, the Wizards won the tiebreaker and were awarded the 178th ping-pong ball combination.

So that is a crash course in how the 1,000 combinations are assigned to the fourteen lottery teams. With the combinations assigned, the next step is the lottery itself which is repeated three times to determine who will obtain the first, second and third picks. For the first pick overall, four ping-pong balls are selected with the team that “owns” the pulled combination being the big lottery winner. The balls are replaced. Rinse. Wash. Repeat. Once the first three picks are assigned, the remaining teams are assigned picks four through fourteen based solely upon records, with pick four going to the team of the remaining eleven with the worst record and so on (refer back to tie breakers for teams with the same records).

Final Thoughts

Although it matters a great deal, draft position is not the only thing that matters when it comes to drafting the next superstar. Although there is a strong correlation between draft position and career performance, there are plenty of examples of teams drafting a Sam Bowie before a Jordan or a team snagging a Gilbert Arenas or a Rashard Lewis in the second round of the draft. The single most important factor in a team’s ability to spot and draft the next superstar is the team’s front office and the due diligence they conduct between the lottery and the actual draft. This is where scouting, workouts, interviews, research and just plain intuition come into play and separate the great franchises from the average.