Basketball Free For All

Few issues divide the fantasy fanatics these days more decisively than the Elton Brand conundrum. As in the I drafted Elton Brand now what the hell do I do with him conundrum. Those fortunate enough to not have drafted Brand remain on the sidelines trying to determine whether or not to target EB as a suitable buy low candidate.

Newcomers to fantasy basketball may not understand all the man-love and hype surrounding Brand. Over the prior two season, Elton played a total of 37 games, posting averages of 14.6 points on .449/.710 percent shooting, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.3 turnovers. Solid, for sure, but nothing to pine over. However, many managers have a strong affinity to owning Brand after some monster seasons in the not so distant past (Andrei Kirilenko, anyone?).

Step into the time machine and take a look at Brand’s 2005-06 season, which is probably the finest of  his career, during which he played 79 games logging just under 40 minutes per. He posted 24.7 points on .527/.775 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 10.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.5 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. I’ll take two, please. Current Brand owners are hoping for a return to the dominant, first round stud of yesteryear. Although at this point, they’d definitely settle for third round production.

What’s not up for debate is the fact that Brand’s production has fallen off, and significantly so. This season, Brand’s averages are 10.1 points on .452/.833 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 5.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. These averages are good for 133rd in per game value according to Basketball Monster and 131st in per game value according to Ziguana. Pretty tough for a guy that was drafted 39th overall on average in Yahoo! leagues.

What is up for debate is the reason for Brand’s decreased production this season and his future outlook. There are two competing theories to explain his output this season, both of which are not mutually exclusive. Theory one is that Brand is old and his major injuries have permanently limited his ability to play basketball at the highest level. The second theory is that he simply isn’t fitting into Eddie Jordan’s Princeton offense. The two theories, however, do lead to different conclusions about the possible career trajectory for EB.

Theory One: Old and Injured

In basketball years, 30 means you qualify for AARP membership and can no longer relate to the youths. Your run isn’t necessarily over, but time is most definitely no longer on your side. There are some players that can play effectively late into life (John Stockton comes to mind), but big men with a history of serious injuries do not exactly fit the Stockton mold.

But what injuries did Brand suffer and how serious were they?

Brand has suffered four major injuries in his eleven seasons playing professional basketball. Over his first eight seasons, Brand missed a total of 50 games while suffering two moderate injuries. Brand’s first stint on the injured reserve list came in 2002-03 when he suffered a stress fracture in his left leg and missed 18 games. Brand’s second stint on the injured reserve list occurred the next season when he missed 13 of the Clippers’ first games with a hairline stress fracture of his right foot.

These two injuries early in Brand’s career were nothing too out of the ordinary for a big man playing physical basketball in the paint. However, everything would change for Brand in August 2007.

In the latest nasty injury blow for the Los Angeles Clippers, cornerstone forward Elton Brand ruptured his left Achilles tendon on Friday during his usual daily workout.

Brand, 28, is expected to undergo surgery next week and joins teammate Shaun Livingston on the list of long-term injury victims for the Clippers. Achilles tendon injuries typically sideline NBA players for at least a year, which would theoretically threaten Brand’s availability for all of the 2007-08 season.

Source: ESPN

Rupturing the Achilles tendon is a devastating injury and can sap the explosiveness of an athlete, potentially permanently. There is not even consensus on the best treatment for a ruptured Achilles. This type of injury is so devastating that there is even an online community dedicated to bringing together people who are recovering from a ruptured Achilles. The result for Brand was a disappointing 2007-08 campaign in which he only played in eight, mediocre games. If you stashed EB on your bench for most of the 2007-08 season, you probably lost. My condolences.

After a frustrating 2007-08 season, Brand bailed on the Clippers for greener pastures playing in Philadelphia. He was the marquee free agent signing of the summer of 2008, inking a five year, $80 million dollar deal. At the time, the Brand signing was widely seen as the piece that would push the Sixers from pretenders to contenders. Unfortunately for Elton, fate had other plans for him last season.

After a less than perfect union between Brand and the Sixers early on, the major injury bug would strike again. This time, Brand suffered a dislocated shoulder while committing a foul against the Bucks’ rookie forward out of UCLA, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. After missing 16 games, Brand returned for a handful of games before re-aggravating his injured shoulder. This time, he opted for season-ending surgery on his right shoulder.

That brings us to the current-day Elton Brand.

With these recent injuries, both have the potential to impact Brand’s ability to play basketball at the level at which he played in the 2005-06 season. Although there have been no reports confirming this fact (and why would the team choose to release this information anyways?), Brand’s range of motion and ability to hit mid range jumpers could be affected by his shoulder injuries last season. Elton is right-handed and his dislocated shoulder was his right shoulder. This would expect us to see lower shooting efficiency (check) and less rebounds (check). Circumstantial evidence seems to support the idea that Brand’s shoulder injury has left him with a  limited range of motion, but we can’t know for sure.

As far as the Achilles rupture, Brand’s tendon should be similarly as strong as it was prior to injury while the risk of re-rupture should be almost non-existant.

Mendelbaum and colleagues showed that those undergoing direct repair lost only 2.6% of their strength when undergoing isokinetic testing and that 92% of athletes were able to return to their respective sports at a similar level at 6 months postoperatively.

Source: Medscape.com

However, there is a problem. The size of Brand’s calf muscle is noticeably smaller since the injury. Apparently, he suffered a lot of muscle atrophy which he hasn’t as yet been able to fully regain. A comparison could be made to Dominique Wilkins who suffered through an identical injury – Achilles tear and differently sized calf muscle.  He went on to make a successful comeback earning two more All-star appearances.

What differentiates Brand from ‘nique is that he’s never relied on fantastic athleticism.  Once Wilkins was able to rehab his tendon extremely well, he was able to showcase his talents (or almost all of it) again.  On the other hand, for Brand, his game has been centered more around power. It is quite conceivable that the missing strength in Brand’s calf is having some influence on his game. In reading the aforementioned article, Brand finishes it by saying that “it’s still coming.” This obviously is an admittance he’s not able to do the same stuff he was prior to the Achilles rupture.

If you accept the conclusions of Theory One, EB’s possible career trajectory is average at best and pathetic at worst. Brand is destined to be an extremely highly paid role player, one that people will never believe a franchise was stupid enough to give an $80 million contract to. If you find yourself in this camp, do not attempt to buy low on Brand and if you already own him, cut your losses and sell him for whatever you can get. Every fantasy league has a Brand optimist or two.

Theory Two: System/Coach

According to this viewpoint, Brand’s pitiful production this season is more a result of poor coaching and a mismatch between player and system. Under this theory, Eddie Jordan and his motion offense are the antagonists and Brand is simply caught in the crossfire. There are a few variations on this general theory but the basic themes remain the same.

The first variation is that Coach Jordan is not getting Brand the shots he wants, where he wants them while playing him limited minutes. It seems plausible at first, especially if you’ve watched some of Philadelphia’s games this season. But if you look at the shot selection data from Brand’s vintage season, 2005-06, and compare it to the current season, some remarkable similarities emerge.

If you look at the percentage of attempts of different types of shots, you see that Brand is taking different types of shots at about the same rate now as in 2005-06. In his vintage season, 70 percent of EB’s shots were jump shots, versus 71 percent now. The similarity between percentage of shot attempts holds true for close (24 percent versus 23 percent now), dunks (4 percent versus 6 percent now) and tips (2 percent versus 0 percent now). In 2005-06, 30 percent of Brand’s attempts were from close range versus 29 percent now. Thus, the shot selection data from 82 Games does not support the claim of vastly different shot selection between Brand’s vintage seasons and now.

Looking more closely at the data, a couple of differences emerge. Brand v2009 had more of his shots blocked than Brand v2005, which actually provides mild support for Theory One. However, the truly interesting numbers are the assisted percentage number. This reflects the percentage of shot attempts that were setup by EB’s teammates. Across the board, these numbers are down in the current season meaning Brand has more responsibility to create his own shot. If you read between the lines, you come to the conclusion that EB might be struggling with having to create his own shots without a pure point guard on the roster.

Moreover, isn’t it curious that Brand is easily seeing the lowest minutes he’s ever had in his career (a little over 27)?  It’s especially confusing when you consider how much better the team performs when he is ON the floor. This, supports the idea that Brand’s struggles are related to the system and minutes that Coach Jordan has employed in the early goings this season.

The second variation is that Eddie Jordan is playing two post players (Brand along with either Samuel Dalembert or Marreese Speights) when the basics of the Princeton offense dictate it should be only one. Currently, Brand has logged the majority of his minutes at the four. This variation insists that Brand is being utilized ineffectively and that sliding him to the five where he can play closer to the basket where he can work on the low block. There may be some that point to the 82 Games stats by position. However, it must be pointed out that this data is based upon a very small sample size (around 10 total minutes of Brand at C). Take with large doses of salt.

If you buy either of these variations of Theory Two, Brand’s possible career trajectory is much rosier. The solution to the Elton Brand conundrum is simply adjust the offensive scheme or give Eddie the boot. Installing a system more suitable to the 80 million dollar man would correct a lot of the problems with Brand this season. If you fall into this camp and do not buy Theory One, Brand is a serious buy low candidate (depending upon your outlook for Jordan figuring it out or getting the axe).

Conclusion

Depending on which theory you buy into, last season’s marquee offseason signing, Elton Brand, ranges from a decent signing who has had a rough start in the City of Brotherly Love to a mediocre player with an absolute albatross of a contract. With such a large contract and these being tough economic times and all, Brand’s huge contract means he is most likely staying put for better or worse.

In the end, no one except maybe Elton Brand himself really knows whether Theory One or Theory Two is true. We each have the burden of examining the facts and interpreting them based upon our own personal observations. In the end, the onus is on each fantasy manager to come to his own conclusions for the reasons for Brand’s disappointing play and his possible career trajectory.

As a result of his disappointing play, Brand is catching lots of flack for his paycheck versus his production. Really, the blame for this unfortunate situation falls squarely on the Sixers front office for giving him so much money after a devastating Achilles injury and without seeing him play at a high level for a sustained period. For this reason, Brand should not be remembered for his Achilles but rather for his role as Atlas, destined to carry the load of the Philly faithful or to be crushed trying.

With Yao Ming officially down and out for the 2009-10 NBA season, fantasy managers in keeper and dynasty formats all have an interesting dilemma. Similar dilemmas play out each season, with recent examples being Elton Brand in 2007-08 and Gilbert Arenas in 2008-09. Dealing with injuries is one of the keys to fantasy success and is more complicated in dynasty and keeper formats.

In laying out the basics of keeper and dynasty strategy, the main thing to remember is that the fundamental goal every season is to win a championship. Anything less than a gold trophy can be considered a failure; there is no prize for rebuilding. However, winning the ultimate prize is easier said than done, especially when you lose one of your top players, such as Yao, for the entire season.

As always, league settings play a large role in how to handle the Ming Dilemma. Each individual situation is different and there is no one-size-fits-all approach to handling Yao Ming this season. The reason Yao Ming is such an interesting case study is because he is a bona fide first round talent in virtually every format when healthy. This makes the decision of whether to cut your losses and move on much more difficult.

Let’s take at some of the possible scenarios and examine the different methods of dealing with the Ming Dilemma.

Already Own Yao Ming

The greatest dilemma falls on the owners who already have Yao on their rosters as a keeper. In dynasty league formats, you have no choice but to hang on to Yao Ming and waste a roster spot carrying him all season. In dynasty formats, most managers have dead weight at the end of their rosters. Dynasty formats allow managers to carry project players for long periods of times as the players develop and improve.

In keeper leagues, the dilemma is more pronounced and is greatly affected by individual league settings and team makeup. In general, the more keepers a league allows, the more it makes sense to hang on to Yao. Extremely deep keeper leagues (10+ teams) are more akin to dynasty leagues than to shallow keeper leagues, which are strategically closer to redraft leagues.

Stacked teams are less likely to be forced into keeping Yao Ming or another injured superstar. These teams can sacrifice some long-term value for a worse player who will provide an immediate positive impact. At risk of sounding like a broken record, the point in any league is to win this season. Thus, if you have other viable keeper options, do not hesitate to get rid of Ming or another injured superstar.

One important caveat to note. For any league with an injured-reserve spot (or multiple IR spots), it almost universally makes sense to hang on to Yao Ming or another injured superstar. In these formats, Yao’s dead weight can be carried for most of the season without affecting your ability to compete for a title.

Yao is on the Waiver Wire

In some keeper leagues, Yao has already ended up on the waiver wire. Maybe he wasn’t drafted at all, or maybe he was jettisoned in favor of a guy who has played at a high level during the preseason. However he ended up there, inevitably managers start to wonder whether it makes sense to pick him up because it is a keeper league.

In most cases, it does not make sense to pickup Yao Ming if he is currently on the waiver wire. At this juncture in the season, your number one all-consuming goal should be winning the another trophy for your trophy case. Ming’s dead weight is a serious drag and greatly hinders this goal. In order to win, you need every advantage you can get.

I would recommend picking up Yao off the waiver wires in only two scenarios this season. The first is extremely positive medical news featuring a much quicker recovery timeline than expected. To take advantage of this, keep a close eye on any medical reports out of Houston and be prepared to act on a moment’s notice.

The second scenario occurs when your team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Once this occurs, it makes complete sense to drop no-upside players, such as Antonio McDyess, in order to make room for Yao. In keeper and dynasty leagues, the season is not over when you are eliminated from the playoffs. Instead, managers are greatly rewarded for picking up possible breakout candidates for next season and rostering them for the offseason. Then, you can monitor offseason developments and have more flexibility to make deals at the keeper deadline. A good example of this is owners who picked up Anthony Randolph at the end of last season for his scorching finish. Those managers were rewarded with a keeper quality player in leagues of five or more keepers.

Trade for Yao?

Similar to the situation in which Yao Ming is on the waiver wire, it can make sense to trade for Yao Ming. When mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, it is open season on lowball offers for injured studs. If the managers that owns an injured studs is competing for a trophy, they will most likely trade an injured stud for a much worse player in order to get production that can help them win now. In this case, a trade is mutually beneficial for both teams as one team improves in the short term and one team improves  in the long term.

Conclusion

From much injury experience, I can attest that it is very, very difficult to carry dead weight for an entire season and still win a championship. Thus, the Ming Dilemma is a serious one that will have serious ramifications on your team’s success in the short and long term. Keep Yao only when it makes sense to do so. These strategies don’t only apply to Yao Ming — they also work with any injured superstar.

This is the second installment of BFFA’s injury risk series for the upcoming season (now only days away). As in Part One, the same disclaimers apply; not all in injury prone players will be covered and the criteria to determine who is an injury risk is not an exact science. Let’s take a look at a couple of Eastern Conference point guards in the latest edition of Injury Risks.

First up is New Jersey floor general Devin Harris. Harris burst onto the fantasy scene last year after being a backup in Dallas for a number of years. In his first full season as a starter for the Nets, Devin provided an extremely potent stat line for his fantasy owners, averaging 21.3 points on .438/.820 percent shooting, 0.9 threes, 6.9 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks and 3.1 turnovers. This year he is definitely not under the radar anymore and will be gone by the end of the second round in most leagues (Buser Sports average draft position of 18th overall and 24th in Yahoo! drafts). His production and value cannot be questioned but his ability to stay on the court can be.

Its only preseason but the past few weeks the word out of New Jersey has been that Harris has already been bothered by a few minor injuries. Currently, Harris is rehabbing a strained groin muscle sustained on Tuesday, which should keep him out a game or two of preseason action. He has also rolled his right ankle and sprained his left ankle already this preseason.

So for those of you keeping track, this is injury number three before we have even begun playing games that matter. Speaking recently about his injuries, Harris seems to be almost content to just be injured for an unspecified time, almost as if he is used to being hurt.

“I can only control what I can control on the floor,” Harris said of his reputation for being injury-prone. “Things happen. I don’t know why they happen. You put all the time in the summer. Sometimes nagging things happen.”

And as for his occasional tendency to turn the art of basketball into demolition derby, he replied, “That’s my thing. That’s just what I do. That’s how I play. I enjoy doing it. I enjoy the contact…”Small nagging ones like this, no,” Harris said. “Usually I’m like the big hurt.”

Source: New Jersey Star-Ledger

It seems like he is warming fans up to the idea that he is definitely not going to be playing anywhere near 82 games this season. His ability to be a fantasy standout comes from his quickness and his agility, which allows him to blow by opposing guards get into the lane and either score or earn a trip to the charity stripe. He is not an elite shooter (career 45 percent from the field), so his tendency for ankle and hamstring injuries really limits his explosiveness and therefore his effectiveness.

He has only played in 80 games only once in his five year career (his third season, 2006-07). This came after missing 26 games the previous season including 24 of which that were directly attributable to  strained right quadriceps. The past two seasons he has played in 64 and 69 games, an average of 66.5 games per season. That is an awfully low average for a number one point guard and could easily put your hopes of having a shiny fantasy trophy in jeopardy.

The next injury risk we will be touching on in this installment is another small-ish point guard, T.J. Ford. This year, Ford has a new lease on life. He no longer has to share the point guard duties with Jarrett Jack, who was shipped to Toronto (although Earl Watson was acquired). This season, the Pacers are his team to run and he seems ready to make full use of his new-found health and permanent starter status.

Ford had a career year last season while splitting time at the point with Jack; he averaged 14.9 points on .452/.872 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 5.3 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.4 turnovers. He also managed to stay healthy and played in 74 games, the second most of his career (he played in 75 his third season). He is slowly moving up draft boards this year (Buser Sports average draft position of 94.2) and is a highly targeted middle tier PG.

With his new-found starter status comes some fantasy disclaimers. Ford has a long list of very serious health problems to consider before drafting. He is afflicted with a condition known as spinal stenosis, which is a narrowing of the openings of the vertebra the spinal cord runs through. This condition causes a great amount of inflammation and pain in the back, obviously not good for a professional basketball player. This condition attributed to Ford missing the playoffs and the final 26 games of his rookie season in Milwaukee after he suffered a bruised spinal cord.

His other injuries are numerous. He went on to miss his entire sophomore campaign while recovering from neck surgery in 2004-05. He missed six games in ‘07 as the result of a “stinger” sustained to his left arm after colliding with Josh Howard. Then in December of 2007 while playing with the Raptors, Ford was the recipient of a hard flagrant foul by Al Horford which caused his head to be slammed into the court. Ford missed almost two months recovering from his injury, allowing Jose Calderon to slip in and pilfer his starting spot and gain widespread fantasy fame.

Coming off of one his most productive seasons in his career (2006-07 season was very solid as well), look for T.J. Ford to be healthy and ready to step in as full time starter. But with such a fragile frame (listed at 6′0 165 lbs.) and extensive injury history, even the smallest collision could lead to long-term injury. For that reason, Ford will be a lifetime member of the injury-prone club. Buyer beware.

Quick question – when you think of Tracy McGrady what comes to mind?  A supremely talented basketball player?  An All-Star destined to never meet lofty expectations?  Or perhaps the posterchild for the most injury prone active athlete?

Well Tim Grover of Attack Athletics (the guy who fixed Dwyane Wade and is trying to do the same for a number of other players this year) undertook the difficult task of changing that perception almost three months ago and by all accounts, Tracy’s rehab was going well.  So well in fact that T-Mac was suddenly on pace to be ready for the start of this upcoming season.   Then, less than one week ago, the talk hope of possibly being ready to go for the start of training camp soured.

Rockets guard Tracy McGrady will not be cleared to practice with the team Tuesday when training camp begins, officials said Monday. McGrady will continue his rehabilitation from microfracture surgery on his knee through Nov. 23 when he will undergo an additional MRI examination to determine whether he can begin practicing.

Source:  The Houston Chronicle

Even though Tracy stated to Sports Illustrated, “Confidence-wise, running, cutting, jumping — I have that right now,” he claims there is no reason to rush things.  Wait, on the one hand, you’re telling us you have all the abilities you need on the court, but you’re not ready?  Excuse me, but that doesn’t make sense.

So what happened?  Did Grover *dare I say* fail T-Mac?

I don’t think so.

The problem unfortunately appears to be the effects of the microfracture surgery.  While it isn’t a very invasive surgery, recovery times vary greatly.  Usually, for a return to sports, the window is 6-to-9 months.  According to the aforementioned SI article, Tracy stated he was only 7 months removed from surgery.  He also stated that he’s still technically ahead of schedule but that his doctors said it could take a year.  Consequently, Knee-Mac never set a true return date.

Rather, it seems like the whole world latched onto the optimism of physical therapist David Reavy.  Tracy’s recovery was going so well that Reavy was buzzing with a little too much optimism in making such a bold statement.  Unfortunately, many of us (whether its the fantasy basketball crowd or the Rockets faithful) latch onto stuff like this like a moth to a flame.

So really there was no actual setback.  Just a few too many jumping the gun.

In reality, there should still be plenty of hope that Tracy’s return will be successful at some point this season.  First, there is no denying McGrady has made faster than anticpated progress thus far during rehab.

“[Tracy] took a hard fall seven years ago in 2002 and he said he was never able to dunk off his left leg [since]. We got him dunking off his left leg four and a half months post micro-fracture, which is basically unheard of,” Reavy says. “The results that we get here are basically unprecedented because we take the force off the injured area, we make the body absorb the force equally, so that it can heal properly and faster without the loading that it’s constantly getting before.

Source:  ESPN Chicago

Second, TMAC’s actual surgery revealed it was not nearly as risky as others.  Dr. Tom Clanton, Houston’s team doctor, stated: “the joint damage is in a “favorable location,” not near a weight-bearing area, and that McGrady’s knee is otherwise healthy.”

Third, Tracy and the doctors are being much more careful to avoid a relapse like last year.  Tracy has spent almost the entire post-surgery time (not just the few months with Grover) in Chicago doing all the right things.  Namely resting then rehabbing under close supervision.  Consequently, it appears Tim Grover is off the hook — at least temporarily.

On the other hand, the two players we all need to be watching in initially judging Grover’s effectiveness should be either Gilbert Arenas or Jermaine O’Neal.  Both of them are more than a year removed from surgery and both tried to rehab/comeback under different guidance.  Much to his dismay (as we all heard by now), Gilbert followed the direction of the Wizards’ team doctors.  Meanwhile, Jermaine rehabbed with a different trainer, Joe Abunassar, a summer ago.

It will be interesting to watch how well Grover’s clients perform. Currently, he’s on a pedestal thanks to the phenomenal season Wade turned in last year.  If most of his guys make it through this year, either healthy for the most part or exhibit explosiveness only seen prior to injury, we might have to put that pedestal atop Mount Everest.

For the guy who said that he is a moron if the Shaq trade doesn’t work (I’ll let you be the judge of this one), it must feel good to finally get something right. Steve Kerr’s treatment of Amar’e Stoudemire’s contract extension negotiations seems to be going much better than some of his other moves since being hired as General Manager of the Phoenix Suns.

“I think everything looks great, but before you make that kind of a financial commitment, or any commitment in this league, you have to know that your player is fine and ready to go,” Suns general manager Steve Kerr said on Tuesday. “I’m on the same page as Charlie [Grantham, Stoudemire's agent] and Amare. We need to see Amare on the court in October and see that everything’s going to be OK, which we fully expect. Before we make that kind of commitment, you’d better be sure.”

After a workout at U.S. Airways Center last week, Stoudemire said he believes he deserves a maximum extension.

Stoudemire can become a free agent after next season, but he has said he’d like to remain with the team that drafted him in the first round in 2002 — as long as the Suns are contenders. Phoenix missed the playoffs last season.

The Suns have fielded trade offers for Stoudemire this summer. But if they decide to keep him, they could sign him to an extension at any point next season.

Those talks could heat up if Stoudemire comes back strong from his surgery, as he has vowed to do.

“We need to see him play,” Kerr said. “Charlie knows that. Amare knows that. Obviously, the eye situation was more serious than what we first thought. The recovery time has taken longer.”

Source: ESPN

Whew!

It seems like the Suns have learned their lesson from the Gilbert Arenas saga in Washington. Remember, Arenas infamously inked a contract for six years and $111 million dollars in July 2008. In September of 2008, Arenas had ‘minor’ surgery and was surprised when there was a backlash at the announcement of his surgical procedure.

On crutches again, about to spend more time in physical therapy than he will in a gym, Gilbert Arenas actually doesn’t comprehend the fuss and worry.

“Why’s everybody tripping out?” he said from his cellphone yesterday, less than five hours after debris was removed from his surgically repaired left knee — the same knee that’s now been opened three times in 18 months.

“Big picture, if I start rehabbing now and get through the pain that prevented me from running or jumping this summer, I’ll be back on the court sooner,” he said. “How’s that a bad thing?”

Source: The Washington Post

The big deal was that the Wizards committed over a hundred million dollars and six years to Arenas and his bum knees. People were trippin’ because Arenas got paid over $14.5 million dollars in 2008-09 and he appeared in two games. That works out to a cool $7.25 million per game last season.

In waiting to see how Amar’e responds to the eye surgeries he has had before giving him a max deal, Kerr has ensured that the Suns don’t get Arenased (you heard it hear first folks) into paying a max contract to a player to rehab for a year.

After years of humiliating first round playoff losses, the Houston Rockets finally made it to the Western Conference semifinals where they took the Lakers to seven games. The team and its fans had reason to be optimistic about heading into next season.

The Rockets had become a venerable force in the Western Conference and they shook off the “they can’t get out of the first round” stigma. It seemed as though their strategy had worked. They refused to submit to rebuilding in years past and continued to built around a core of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. But now it appears they may be without their All-Star center for an extended period of time.

The Rockets have privately told league peers it could be a full season before Yao might be able to return to basketball. Multiple league executives, officials close to Yao and two doctors with knowledge of the diagnoses are describing a troubling re-fracture of his navicular bone. Three pins were inserted a year ago, but the foot cracked in the playoffs and isn’t healing.

Source: Yahoo! Sports

This is devastating news for the Rockets, who view Yao as the face of the franchise and the main building block with which they planned to move forward. Now it seems highly possible that Yao may have played his last game in Houston. He simply is not able to stay on the court an entire season. Think about that for a second, and let the signifcance fully set in.

Yao managed to play in 77 games this season after missing a combined 86 games in the previous three seasons. It looked as though he had finally broken his injury curse when he was sidelined with the most recent foot injury during the Lakers playoff series. Now with word that the foot injury isn’t healing and the possibility of Yao missing yet another season, what can the Rockets do?

They have been competitive with Yao out before but this is not a team that can pretend to make a championship push with Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry holding down the front court. Tracy McGrady isn’t the athlete and superstar he once was and the team has already conceded that he is no longer their go-to-guy heading forward. The Rockets have been actively shopping McGrady, whose massive $22 million expiring contract will be attractive to some teams.

Assuming McGrady is at best in his last year in Houston and Yao is out for the 2009-2010 season, the Rockets are in dire straights. They now have to decide if they will continue to wait for Yao’s foot or if they will move in another direction and rid themselves of Ming and all his ailments.

Rebuilding is a logical conclusion. In my opinion it is the only option the Rockets have at this point. Cut your loses and start over. Yao is not the type of player you can expect to ride all the way to a championship. True: he is an extremely gifted 7 foot 6 inch completely dominating force in the paint. He can block shots, grab rebounds, defend and is one of the best free throw shooters on the team.

One minor detail… he is completely made of glass. Those fragile bones in his feet keep on breaking every season because they are under so much stress (7′6″ and 310 pounds). Yao may be great, but his extreme penchant for injuries limits what he can offer the Rockets.

They have Ron Artest (if they can re-sign him), Scola and Aaron Brooks to build around. They have some recent draft picks Chase Budinger and Jermaine Taylor to help offensively. Beyond that, the Rockets really are at square one. For a team that showed so much resilience to the glut of injuries that always seemed to be lurking around the corner, Yao’s most recent one may be the fatal fracture to a team that had so much potential.

With the 2008-09 season officially in the rearview mirror, what else is there to do but look ahead to next season?

One of the most exciting and surprising teams of the 2008-09 season, the Houston Rockets, have finally gotten the one and done  playoff exit off of their collective backs (with Tracy McGrady being the notable exception). With the confidence of making it to the second round and pushing the NBA champion Lakers to the limit, the Rockets are looking ahead to next season. Had Yao Ming not fractured his foot, the Rockets may have advanced to the face the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals.

This, of course, begs the questions of whether the Rockets are better without T-Mac and what role will McGrady play for the Rockets next season?

Let’s look at what McGrady has gone through since being shut down in mid-February. Since being shut down last season, McGrady has undergone two surgeries:

Houston Rockets guard Tracy McGrady is recovering from arthroscopic left shoulder surgery, team officials said Saturday.

McGrady underwent the procedure Friday at an undisclosed location to end the discomfort he experienced in the last two seasons.

The 6-foot-8 inch McGrady was shut down Feb. 11 because of a knee injury before the Rockets qualified for the NBA playoffs. General Manager Daryl Morey told the Houston Chronicle reported the procedure, which followed earlier microfracture knee surgery, will allow more time for McGrady to bounce back.

“It is not an issue that would keep him longer than the other rehab,” Morey said. “They cleaned up the shoulder. It is something we talked about for awhile and they had some time now.”

Source: United Press International

With the shoulder and knee surgeries complete, McGrady hopes to be as close to healthy as he can possibly get. Coming off a season that saw him play in only 35 games (a career low in twelve seasons in the league), there have been reports this summer of McGrady training extremely hard already, which bodes well for him both in reality and fantasy.

I saw T Mac in Chicago at Tim Grover’s gym getting in some serious summer work. Haven’t seen him there before. Must be a contract year. I’d expect him to be in great shape and playing much better next year.

Source: ESPN’s Chad Ford

As mentioned in the above quote, Tracy McGrady is in fact entering a contract year. And this just isn’t any old contract year for the injury-prone star player. He is turning thirty years old next season and has not exactly known for being a model of health in his twelve seasons in the NBA. So this may be T-Mac’s last chance to secure a large contract for himself as a professional basketball player. Thus, McGrady has an extemely strong financial incentive to prove that he still deserves to start in the NBA and that he can be healthy and contribute successfully to a winning team.

So McGrady seems to be getting himself in shape to play and has a very strong (financial) incentive to play his best basketball of his life. But did last season prove that the Rockets better with or without McGrady?

To examine the most complete picture of McGrady’s effect on the Rockets, refer to his On/Off court numbers from 82games. The two numbers that stand out to me are offensive and defensive efficiency. These two measures of efficiency control the distorting effect of pace on statistics and provides a baseline with which to measure all teams/players against: points per 100 possessions.

Offensively, the Rockets were worse with McGrady on the floor (108.3 points/100 possessions) than with him on the bench (110.1/100). This is a net loss of -1.8 points per 100 possessions with McGrady on the floor. Defensively, the Rockets were also worse with McGrady on the floor (105.2/100) than with him on the bench (104.9/100). This nets the Houston -2.1 points per 100 possessions. There are other statistics that support the conclusion that the Rockets are better without McGrady (Rockets winning percentage with and without T-Mac, for example) but offensive and defensive efficiency statistics are the most damning.

McGrady’s effect on the Rockets team reminds me in some ways to Allen Iverson’s role on the Detroit Pistons last season. Granted, Iverson’s effect was much more negative and much more powerful (in a bad way) than McGrady’s effect on the Rockets. The similarities can be seen in their career statistics: both are high volume, low efficiency scorers that can be exploited on the defensive end. The results are the same in that both players erode team chemistry through questionable leadership, defensive lapses and supreme ball-hoggery.

It appears then that the Rockets are actually better without McGrady. If that is the case, what role will he play for them next seaon?

Ironically, McGrady’s role on this Rockets team is of the guy that is most likely to be traded. It’s addition by subtraction in its simplest form. T-Mac’s $23 million expiring contract is a lucrative prize in these oh so tough economic times. This large expiring contract coincidentally comes off the books in the much-heralded Summer of Lebron, freeing up lots of cash that can be thrown at the strong free agent class of 2010.

With the Rockets franchise known for being versed in statistics, the fact that the team is better off without McGrady is certainly not lost on the front office. The front office has also shown a willingness to make deals, pulling the trigger on the deal to acquire Ron Artest from the Sacramento Kings before the 2008-09 season and also shipping Rafer Alston out of town in a three team deal at the trade deadline. The Houston management is not gun shy when it comes to a willingness to shake up their roster.

McGrady’s value to the Rockets next season is not what he can produce on the court but rather what his coveted $23 million expiring contract can bring in salary relief and young talent.

When the Oklahoma City Thunder rescinded the deal they had orchestrated to acquire Tyson Chandler due to a nasty case of turf toe, it seemed almost laughable. Now, it turns out the joke was on the New Orleans Hornets. With basically no depth in the middle and little salary cap flexibility, the Hornets’ fate next season is tied to Chandler and his left foot.

In a press release, the team reports Chandler had a procedure performed on his left ankle to relieve inflammation. In addition, he also had a procedure done on his left toe to improve function. Both procedures were performed in New York City.

Posey had a corrective procedure performed on his right knee in Miami.

The Hornets report that both players will be fully recovered prior to training camp. But that fact that they are rehabbing significant injuries means New Orleans would have a hard time trading either player in any attempts to shake up their roster after a disappointing 2008-09 season.

Source: New Orleans Hornets, May 26, 2009

Scott also added that surgery revealed center Tyson Chandler’s injured ankle was worse than thought, and Chandler’s rehabilitation could take four months, close to the beginning of training camp in October.

Source: The Times-Picayune, June 5, 2009

The fact that Hornets head coach Byron Scott admitted the severity of Chandler’s injury is important for a few reasons. First, it means that Chandler is damaged goods and will most likely not be traded until he returns to the court and proves that he can stay healthy. This has major implications for the Hornets’ salary situation, as it is widely reported that they are in a very difficult fiscal financial straits and are actively trying to shed salary by any means necessary short of getting rid of All Star floor general Chris Paul.

Second, Chandler most likely aggravated his ankle and toe injury in trying to rush back and help New Orleans advance in the playoffs last season. Whether it was his own desire to help his team advance or due to pressure from the front office, Chandler clearly should not have been trying to play. The aforementioned lack of depth at the center position essentially doomed the Hornets’ playoff hopes without a healthy Chandler. When your choice for starting center is between Sean Marks, Hilton Armstrong or Melvin Ely, you are definitely in deep shit.

Without salary flexibility to sign a solid backup center, the fate of the Hornets franchise is tied to the health of Chandler’s feet and ankles and it appears that their desire to win last season meant that they were irresponsible in how the handled his injury.

But what about Chandler’s fantasy value for next season?

Chandler’s fantasy value season is certainly hard to gauge at this point but a few things are clear when you look at the numbers. There are certain players who are much better in real life than they are in fantasy basketball. Tyson is one of these players. There are also other players who will be drafted higher than they should merely based upon name recognition alone. Tyson is also one of these players.

Look at his average value last season compared to where he was drafted. In 2008-09, Chandler’s average draft position was 70th overall in Yahoo! fantasy basketball leagues. According to Basketball Monster’s Player Rankings, Chandler’s value last season wasn’t even close to that ADP.

Per game, 2008-09 = 181st
Cumulative, 2008-09 = 233rd

2008-09 averages: 8.8 points on 56.5/57.9 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.7 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 1.6 turnovers.

Obviously, Chandler was hobbled by injury last season and his value took a very serious hit as a result. What about Chandler’s per game and cumulative rankings from the previous season (2007-08)? These averages and rankings were indicative of the fantasy production and value managers expected to get from drafting Chandler. They also give a better impression of what Chandler’s true fantasy value is.

Per game, 2007-08 = 83rd
Cumulative, 2007-08 = 62nd

2007-08 averages: 11.8 points on 62.3/59.3 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.7 turnovers.

So an ADP of 70th overall seems reasonable based upon his 2007-08 numbers, right?

Wrong.

In my opinion, Chandler’s 2007-08 fantasy value represents his ceiling. As a player with limited offensive skills, Chandler’s scoring probably will not advance significantly beyond his 2007-08 statistics. Most of his points where created by Chris Paul or off of putbacks anyways, so a trade to virtually any other team would negatively affect his fantasy value as well. As far as his other stats, he most likely was at or near his ceiling as well. His field goal percentage has little or no room for improvement. He could probably gain more blocks (Dwyane Wade averaged more blocks than Chandler last season) and I don’t really understand why he doesn’t. Again, more reason to believe that Chandler will not exceed his 2007-08 numbers and fantasy value.

Drafting a player close to or at their fantasy ceiling is not a formula for success. The idea is to draft players well below their ceiling so that they outperform their draft position by a wide margin (the most common example of this is trying to identify and draft sleepers). Do yourself a favor next season and steer clear of drafting Chandler, as he is most likely to be taken at or above his ceiling. You are better off to draft a mid-level center who has less injury concerns and more of that ever-elusive upside (Al Horfod for example).

The Orlando Magic’s Jameer Nelson made his return to action from shoulder surgery in game one of the Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday night. The results were not encouraging, although Nelson’s return to action is certainly not the sole reason. Nelson’s return had a negative effect on starting point guard Rafer Alston.

Rafer Alston helped guide the Orlando Magic to the NBA Finals, then helped them take a lead after the first quarter of Game 1.

Then he sat, for a long time — way too long.

By the time Alston got back in the game, his rhythm was gone, and so was Orlando’s lead. He never recovered and neither did the Magic, whose strong start quickly turned into a 100-75 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers.

On Friday, Alston acknowledged the difficulty of sitting the entire second quarter while Jameer Nelson played all 12 minutes — a decision Stan Van Gundy admitted was a mistake — in his return from a shoulder injury.

“It was odd. I mean, I think everyone can see that. That’s unusual to start the game and then you don’t even touch the court in the second quarter,” Alston said.

Source: Associated Press

As feared, Nelson’s return to the Magic’s rotation upset Alston’s rhythym and also affected his mental disposition. As mentioned earlier on these pages (A Finals Jameeracle?, May 31, 2009), not knowing how many minutes a player will get from game-to-game can have a serious negative effect on the player’s production. These negative mental side effects are compounded by the effects on the player’s rhythym. In short, Nelson’s return took something that wasn’t broken and busted it up. The fault for this is not Nelson’s; it actually lies on the Magic’s head coach Stan Van Gundy.

Van Gundy should definitely been more aware of how Nelson’s return would affect Alston. As a coach, Van Gundy has always been quick to admit when is wrong and he has already taken responsibility for not managing Nelson’s minutes effectively in game one. After all, Nelson and Alston have never played together in the same game on the same team as Rafer was acquired after Jameer’s regular season-ending shoulder injury.

Again, trying to rotate three players for one position is not an easy task and the simplest solution to the dilemma is to reduce the rotation to two players. This is precisely what is meant when a coach is said to be tightening up their playoff rotation. So who should be the odd man out between Nelson, Alston and Anthony Johnson in the Magic’s point guard rotation for the 2009 NBA Finals? As I’ve argued earlier, Nelson should be the odd man out and be used primarily as injury insurance to one of the two point guards that helped the Magic advance at each stage of the postseason. However, the damage is already done and it is up to Van Gundy to correct his error.

Let’s just hope this miracle mistake doesn’t end up costing the Magic franchise it’s first Larry O’Brien trophy.

The New York Knicks’ Wilson Chandler will most likely be undergoing ankle surgery to remove a bone spur sometime this summer.

Wilson Chandler, the Knicks’ most pleasant surprise of last season, is expected to have surgery on his left ankle to remove a bone spur, a league source said last night.

Chandler played in all 82 games in his second year in the NBA and was planning on playing for the Knicks in the summer league starting July 10 in Las Vegas. But ankle surgery would keep him sidelined for six weeks.

Source: New York Post

It’s too bad Chandler won’t be participating in summer league due to the bone spurs. Any playing time he can get will help him develop more rapidly. However with bone spurs, it is best to get as much rest as possible, which will probably end up benefitting him in the long run.

For those who don’t know, Wilson Chandler was drafted by the Knicks with the 23rd pick in the 2007 draft out of DePaul University. Chandler played most of his mintutes at the small forward position last season but also played significant minutes at the four for Coach Mike D’Antoni (he even logged minutes at the shooting guard and center positions!). At 6′8″ and 220 pounds, Chandler is undersized at the four, although D’Antoni has never been shy to play guys out of position.

If anyone on the Knicks’ roster is untouchable, it might be Chandler. He is the type of player that thrives in D’Antoni’s uptempo offensive system. He will also be entering his third season in the league, which has traditionally been a year where players take great strides in their production. And since he is still on his rookie contract, his salary situation is nice and does not impinge on the Knicks’ 2010 hopes.

What fantasy production does Chandler have to offer?

Take a look at his per-36 minute statistics from Chandler’s 2008-09 season. He averaged 15.6 points on 43.1/32.8/79.5 percent shooting, 1.4 threes, 5.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. He has some serious steal-block-three per game club potential and is an across the board contributor. The only strike against him could be his sub-par field goal percentage, which he will hopefully improve upon as he develops further.

Despite the bone spur and forthcoming surgery, don’t sleep on Wilson Chandler next season. He should be good to go by the start of the 2009-10 NBA season and is due for productive fantasy gains in his third season.