Preview: Week 21
It’s almost shocking to hear it but the season is over 80 percent complete. That means the basketball world is focused on one thing and one thing only: the playoffs. Every single game is meaningful for the few teams that are lucky enough to still be in the mix for a playoff berth. Similarly, the fantasy managers that are clever enough (some might add lucky enough) to still be in the hunt for a title are focused on adding digits to the W column.
At risk of being called a homer, I’ve got to give Amare Stoudemire some love. Over the past two weeks he’s been averaging 30 and 10 and playing exciting basketball again. Welcome back, STAT. If there’s one thing to note with Amare at this point in his career, it’s that he is a post-ASB player. Check out his ASB splits from this season: 21.2 points and 8.6 rebounds pre-ASB and 26.4 and 9.8 post, for example. The post-ASB improvement applies to most of the seasons in his career. Mental note for next season. Buy Amare low during his early season “struggles.”
In a themed approach this week, take a look at some of the players doing work on awful teams. These guys can make your fantasy team a little less awful. Notice that these guys playing on terrible teams generally play in the Eastern Conference. Coincidence?
Guys playing for terrible teams
Jonas Jerebko (SF/PF – 24%) Yeah, the Pistons have been terrible since the moment Chauncey Billups left for the Rockies. Everyone knows it at this point. But they do have a couple of bright spots for the future after blowing their cap space on mid-level talent. The NBA’s sole Swede is proving that he belongs in the NBA while also proving that Joe Dumars can at least get something right.
Jason Maxiell (PF/C – 10%) Although Dumars overpaid him, Mad Max is starting to show some signs of life again. We’ve seen it before in his fledgling career but he’s never turned potential into production. He’s been having a very productive stretch lately and provides some big-man statistics for teams thin at center. With nothing left for the Pistons to play for, look for the kiddies to get burn for the stretch run.
Toney Douglas – (PG/SG – 7%) / Bill Walker (SG/SF – %) It’s often the secondary outcomes of real-life NBA trades that have large and often unexpected consequences in the fantasy realm. The arrival of Sergio Rodriguez has unintentionally opened up minutes for Toney, who is out-playing both Spanish Chocolate and the point guard that won’t be named. Boston throw-in Walker has been playing the best ball of his short career and was won over Coach Mike D with his offense. Snag either player for threes and points on good percentages.
Jrue Holiday (PG/SG – 25%) He’s been getting minutes lately and playing well enough to please his somewhat deranged coach. The Cancer is no longer with the team, freeing up guard minutes. The Sixers are terrible and have no reason to compete this season. In fact, the Sixers haven’t seemed that interested in competing much at all this year. Holiday is seen as an important piece for the future so look for the Sixers leadership (I assume someone is in charge there) to try and give their down-beaten fans some hope.
James Johnson (SF/PF – 1%) The Bulls just haven’t coalesced this season having dealt with nagging injuries to key front court players (Noah, Deng, Gibson). Bad for the Bullies and their playoff hopes, good for fantasy managers in deep leagues. Somebody has to suit up for the Bulls every night. Once the team’s playoffs dim just a bit more look for Chicago to give their first round picks more run to start preparing for next season.
Guy playing for a good team
Wesley Matthews (PG/SG – 5%) In the spirit of balanced reporting, we’ve got to consider at least one player from a not-so-horrible team. Enter undrafted (in both fantasy and real life) rookie Wesley Matthews. Until the Jazz end up selecting Evan Turner with the Knicks’ first round pick next season, Matthews is a decent play. After all, he wouldn’t be playing in Coach Sloan’s rotation at this point in the season as a rookie if he wasn’t a “Sloan guy.” He’ll net you points, steals and threes on good percentages for as long as he can stay out of Coach Sloan’s doghouse.
March 15th, 2010 at 1:05 am
Have some respect man, Iverson has issues right now. Reality matters, not fantasy. Nice bit nonetheless.
March 15th, 2010 at 9:26 am
I’m not even touching on anything related to his personal, off the court issues. I’m saying dude has been a chemistry killer on the last three teams he has been on. It’s simply a fact.
March 15th, 2010 at 9:50 am
Iverson is a cancer on and off the court, nothing wrong with that statement.
March 15th, 2010 at 10:04 am
I jumped on Shaun Livingston, Jarvis Hayes, and would recommend Jannero Pargo for certain teams in deep leagues with Rose being out and the Bulls looking like their playoff chances might be slim.
March 16th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
man i’m rostering channing frye, love, and beasley (who finally played tonight), this is killing me… whats the deal with FRYE more than anything? I read he’s splitting time with lopez, is he getting towards droppable? I was in first, now in second, last week and now i just really HAVE to make sure i keep my bye week… just a 10 teamer, H2H, thanks
March 17th, 2010 at 11:38 am
I don’t think Channing Frye is roster material at this point, especially in a 10 team league. He barely gets 20 minutes a game.
March 17th, 2010 at 1:58 pm
ya i’ve gotta make a decision, we do start 11 guys (3 utility) and we have a deep bench, like a 5 player bench? i guarantee i bounce him for someone who’s hot for 2 games and he’ll get his PT back and i’ll be ticked, arghhhh
March 17th, 2010 at 2:15 pm
Frye’s hot start came with RoLo in a walking boot. With RoLo in the rotation, Frye should only see big minutes when Robin gets in foul trouble. I think Yao is right — dump him for a hot FA. Frye will probably have a couple more big nights but predicting when he posts a dud and when he posts a huge line is a complete crap shoot.
March 18th, 2010 at 2:33 am
Frye’s also played more minutes this season than ever before, a lot more. Chances are he’s hit the wall & his legs are dead tired, which is bad news for a long range shooter.
March 17th, 2010 at 7:06 pm
Alonzo Gee’s interesting on the Wizards. Is an efficient scorer, going by both his D League stats and what he’s done in his few NBA games. Hits some threes, rebounds well, good steals. Its not like they’re stacked at SG anyway, so there’s a good chance he plays plenty of minutes going forward.
Just signed his second 10 day contract, will be interesting to see if they keep him beyond that.
March 17th, 2010 at 7:10 pm
Time for another news flash – Will Chandler’s persistent groin strain looks like sidelining him for the rest of the season. Kill Bill will take his place as starter.
March 18th, 2010 at 6:26 am
dropped frye for Q-rich. He’s been throwing up some good #’s, helps replace channings 3’s as well. I hate dropping a guy who helped me all year, BUT its almost playoff time baby!
March 18th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
I don’t know – I tend to think Matt Barnes & Tolliver would both be improvements on QRich. Depends who’s available in your league I guess.
March 18th, 2010 at 10:53 pm
Do you guys think I should drop Watson for Terrence Williams? It’s the playoffs, and Im losing to this guy 3-6, Ft%, fg%, Points, Turnovers and Rebounds are close.. Im only dominating blocks, and he’s dominating everything else..
March 19th, 2010 at 1:01 am
If CJ’s starting then I’d probably say no, though he didn’t do much his last game. If Curry’s back, TWill gives you more I think.
March 18th, 2010 at 11:03 pm
I’m talkin about CJ watson.
March 20th, 2010 at 1:04 pm
if tyreke evans goes down who fills in…
March 20th, 2010 at 6:42 pm
Tyreke’s out for only a week with bruising – no fracture.
My guess is Beno stays at point guard and Cisco gets the start at SG.
March 21st, 2010 at 3:52 am
One day to go, and with scores as they stand I’ll sneak into the playoffs by half a point …
March 21st, 2010 at 8:53 am
i shoulda kept Qrich instead of dropping him for cj miles, those 6 three’s last night woulda been nice…. hopefully i can get what i need today to jump into first!
March 23rd, 2010 at 1:22 pm
CJ had a nice game yesterday while Q not so much…
March 23rd, 2010 at 1:20 am
Well … I’m still around for another week, having overwhelmed my opponent 7-2 by virtue of stacking my team with 4 game players off the WW
Reggie Williams has his contract for the rest of the year and looks like he’ll be dynamite in the last few weeks, and Tolliver’s really heating up as well. CJ Watson and Morrow, both RFAs after this season, are seeing few minutes in order to try and dampen their value.
I like Maxiell and Jerebko for the last week (for any of us that reach the finals) as they’ll be unleashed with 6 games to play & nothing to lose, as will the aforementioned Warriors.
March 23rd, 2010 at 1:20 pm
Sweet! I’ve also got all my teams in the playoffs and am looking to take advantage of all the hot guys. People should also keep Houston in mind specifically Budinger. Battier out for a bit…
March 23rd, 2010 at 10:20 pm
Personally I think Budinger’s a year or two away from being reliable, though he’s certainly got the potential. He also needs starter’s minutes, which unfortunately he won’t get with Ariza playing.
March 23rd, 2010 at 10:55 pm
Completely agree. Failed to mention he might be a good play for the rest of this week for those needing a body.
March 23rd, 2010 at 9:14 am
Both my teams are in the semi finals right now. How come theres no week 22 update yet?
March 23rd, 2010 at 10:38 am
Sorry, Yao. Been dealing with personal stuff and completely overwhelmed at work so am unable to devote any time writing. You’re going to have to go it alone, I’m afraid.
Congrats and good luck!
March 23rd, 2010 at 1:21 pm
Likewise – too busy. Yao, you can always post your questions here and someone should get to them relatively quickly. Also, you guys can visit fantasy basketball cafe forums where both phil (plonden) and I (redhopeful) lurk.