Preview: Week 19
Everyone ready for the home stretch? We’ve got 3 weeks left before most fantasy playoffs begin in Week 22. However, don’t view this as a time to coast as it could be more important than ever to pay attention to your teams. Whether you’re fighting to make the playoffs or simply looking to make those final tweaks to bring home a championship, the moves you make now could potentially decide your entire seasons. So FOCUS! 
Week Nineteen Schedules
Four Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHO, SAC
Three Games: CHI, MIA, MIL, NJN, NOH, POR, SAS, TOR, UTA, WAS
Two Games: MIN
ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)
I won’t harp on the usual suspects as you guys should know by now that Taj Gibson (SF/PF – 36%), George Hill (PG/SG – 36%) and C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 30%) should not be floating around on so many waiver wires. If these guys aren’t available, you should strongly consider:
DeJuan Blair (PF/C – 19%) – Just a last minute addition here. Was watching the Spurs/Suns matchup and observed Antonio McDyess go down with an apparent injury to his left knee (the same one that has had several surgeries). Consequently, you’ve got to jump on Blair as his 36 per numbers are absolutely fantastic: 15.5 points (on 56 FG%), 12.4 rebounds, 1.2 steal and 1 block.
UPDATE: ABC reported McDyess has a hyperextended knee, but it’s not too severe as he’s back out on the floor (I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses a game or two if it tightens up). Regardless, Blair is a fine speculative pick as we know he doesn’t need much court time to produce. Much more important to note, the Spurs play the most games the last 5 weeks of the season. Pop has already mentioned that Timmy will see extra rest on back-to-backs. Now imagine if either starting big miss time to any injury: Blair = Gold.
Drew Gooden (PF/C – 36%) – Happy to say I pegged Gooden having a signficant role in Clipperland while others said he’d be behind Craig Smith and DeAndre Jordan. He has started the last two games and averaged 17.5 points and 11 rebounds in a little over 31 and a half minutes. Look for him to continue putting up nice numbers to go along with occasional defensive numbers.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (SF/PF – 14%) – The Prince has usually been more miss than hit thus far in his young career, but he seems to have turned a corner. He’s finally become a little more consistent with his production and thus warrants a look. This past month, he is averaging 9.5 points (on 63.3 FG% and 76.7 FT%), 8.2 rebounds, 1 assist, almost 1 block/steal and .9 turnovers. Also have to point out he has a very friendly schedule for the fantasy playoffs.
Sergio Rodriguez (PG – 22%) – So far his splash with the Knicks has been smaller than most expected, but I think he’s likely to significantly improve on his averages so far of 7.8 points, 1.0 3ptm, 2.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.6 steals. First, he is by far and away their best option as a true point guard. Second, the Knicks need to closely evaluate whether he should be a member of their team in the future.
CUT LIST (No need to shed a tear)
Marvin Williams (SF/PF – 62%) – We’re all aware of the drop in Marvin’s production this season, but unfortunately, it looks like it might have taken another turn for the worse. Lately, Mike Woodson has preferred to play Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford major minutes in the back court. Consequently, Joe Johnson has moved to SF and thus Marvin, meet the bench. I’m sure standard leagues can find more attractive options sitting on the waiver wire.
WATCH LIST (Deep Leagues pounce, but standard leagues first weigh the options)
Nicolas Batum (SG/SF – 7%) – I’m sure you’ve heard about Batum’s stellar line last night – 31 points, 5 3ptm, 7 rebounds, 7 assists and 3 steals. While it’s completely ludicrous to expect anything remotely similar, he’ll still put up serviceable numbers for deeper leagues as he has the ability to contribute in a variety of categories. However, I can’t urge everyone enough that standard leagues should really consider other options as he isn’t even the third option on that team. Also, bear in the mind that Portland plays the least amount of games the last 4 weeks of the season (13).
James Singleton (SF/PF – 4%)/JaVale McGee (PF/C – 15%) – Even though McGee emerged as a starter after the NBA trade deadline, I commented that he’d be at least as maddening to own as Roy Hibbert over at Fantasy Basketball Cafe. True enough, his minutes have been held in check and he even lost his starting gig to James in their last game. However, James happened to twist an ankle and JaVale ended up seeing the biggest minutes (and best line) he has all year. Going forward, I’d imagine Singleton gets more run as he’s simply able to better carry out Flip’s gameplan. McGee still has a lot of growing up to do, but he’ll definitely have his moments thanks to his freakish athleticism.
Anthony Tolliver (PF/C – 6%)/Ronny Turiaf (PF/C – 5%) - I was already liking Tolliver’s chances for a boost in production when it was announced Corey Maggette was going to be out at least until March 8. However, Andris Biedrins suffered a groin pull last night against the Pistons. At this point, there isn’t any word regarding the amount of time that Biedrins may be out, but considering his regression this season, it is prudent to look for more production out of Ronny. If Biedrins does miss significant time, I’d bump probably bump both of them onto the add list.
STAY THE COURSE (Don’t jump ship just yet)
Elton Brand (PF/C – 93%) – Elton’s last two game average has not been a thing of beauty: 6 points (on abysmal shooting too low to print), 3.5 rebounds, 1 steal and .5 blocks. It was revealed today that he’s dealing with a sore calf that forced him to miss Sunday’s practice. Owners should wait and see whether this clears up in a few days or limits him significantly the rest of the season. If the worst happens, Thaddeus Young’s value immediately goes up. What is unclear is whether Marreese Speights or Jason Smith would next benefit the most…
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS (Name(s) that could be flying under the radar in your deep league)
Darko Milicic (PF/C – 10%) – I never thought I’d be writing about Darko’s relevance in fantasy leagues as it wasn’t too long ago he stated he was looking forward to going back to Europe permanently. Funny thing happened though – the Timberwolves decided to trade for him prior to the deadline. Even more surprising is they’ve been giving the guy decent run (20 minutes a game). Subsequently, he might be able to help a deep league team as he’s got a five game average of 5 rebounds and 2.2 blocks going. More importantly, Al Jefferson has seen his minutes continue to dwindle. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is actually represents a trend as Rambis is more interested in experimenting for the future, management would like to improve their lottery position and an unhealthy Jefferson is headed for shutdown in a pointless season.
Bill Walker (SG/SF – 0%) – Admittedly, I’m taking a stab here, but that’s what this section is about, right? Recently, Mike D’Antoni mentioned he likes Bill Walker and he’ll give the kid run to see if he’d be a viable rotation for next year and beyond. Well, so far, Mike has been good on his word as Walker has seen court time with a high of 24 minutes in the Knicks last game. What’s important to remember is that those minutes might really look nice if Tmac has his moments where he misses time. As a bonus, Wilson Chandler is slated to at least miss tomorrow’s game for personal reasons…
MYSTERY MAN
Tracy McGrady (SG/SF – 75%) – Maybe I should have changed the title to mystery knee. McGrady’s fantasy value hinges on how his knee responds to court time. Surprise, surprise, the initial goings haven’t been stellar as Tmac’s minutes have gradually declined with a Knick low of 15 coming against Memphis. According to Alan Hahn, Tracy stated he didn’t want to push it as he was really fatigued, but that he’d be ready to go against Cleveland. It appears this will probably be the norm as I’m sure Tmac has been told by his financial advisors it’s in his best interests to make sure he finishes the year healthy so that he can cash in on a new contract. However, he knows he has to make sure he shows enough to receive decent offers. Deeper leagues should be able to handle the inconsistencies but I advise standard leagues to go ahead and make a move for a more reliable option if available.
February 28th, 2010 at 8:30 pm
Nice preview Oleh
Heh, now “Prince” has finally made the add list I expect him to suck royally & lose his starting spot to Ersan!
February 28th, 2010 at 10:28 pm
Lol, figures he put up a complete dud today. I’ll never make the same mistake again. I SWEAR!
February 28th, 2010 at 8:34 pm
Btw you could say the same things about Dice as you did Blair. Dice is back as a starter and playing well again, and Duncan’s rest games should benefit him just as much.
February 28th, 2010 at 10:30 pm
Very true Andrew. I still like Blair a little more though as I believe he can put up better lines than McDyess with almost half of court time.
February 28th, 2010 at 10:22 pm
Nice preview post, Oleh. As I’ve been slammed at my Clark Kent job I’ve had little time to devote to basketball the past week or so. Gonna take my cheatsheet to the waiver wire now and get ready for the home stretch!
I think Grizzly Blair is definitely a very solid speculative add going forward in most formats. The Spurs have lots of back-to-backs coming up and, like you mentioned, Pop has signaled that he will be giving Duncan some random DNPs coming up.
February 28th, 2010 at 10:32 pm
Thanks Phil. Clark Kent job? Can you rip off your clothes and fly out of the building too?
February 28th, 2010 at 10:37 pm
Couple new developments:
1) Al Jefferson got slapped with a 2 game suspension by the Wolves so Darko just got a little more appealing (as did K. Love and maybe even Hollins for the week).
2) Shaq needs surgery on the thumb. Usual timetable for these things are 6-8 weeks (effectively killing the rest of the regular season). Time to probably move on. In a deep league (where I’m safe to make the playoffs), I just picked up Big Zydrunas. There are strong rumors he’s going back to Cleveland so he should make for a nice play during the entire fantasy playoffs. Also, if Anderson V is floating around waiver wires, he makes for a fantastic play at least the next 3 weeks.
3) Love how Marvin Williams got 40 minutes tonight against the Bucks. Ugh. I guess it just signals that Coach Woody goes either with matchups or how well a particular guy (Bibby or Williams) is faring on a particular night.
February 28th, 2010 at 11:32 pm
Has Spencer Hawes suddenly become relevant, or is this just another brief flash in the pan before heading back to Westphal’s doghouse?
February 28th, 2010 at 11:39 pm
It’s all up to Hawes IMO. I had thought there was some animosity between the two until I saw this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVjwuCJfbeI
If dude plays tough in the paint, I don’t see any reason why Paul demotes him as soon as Thompson comes back…
March 1st, 2010 at 12:29 am
What do I do with Gallinari… He’s been horrible since that Tmac trade.. I need help in boards.. Yi is on the waiver wire.. and he just had a 20/19 game today.. You guys think i should take the risk and Pick up Yi for Gallinari?
March 1st, 2010 at 1:07 pm
Hey John – I’d probably stick with Gallo. When both are playing well, he is easily a better option than Yi. Also, I guess I’ve just got less confidence in Jianlian producing with any decent consistency than Gallo.
March 1st, 2010 at 12:57 am
This is really Gallo’s rookie season, and I think he’s run smack into the wall – he’s simply exhausted, and now he’s losing Dantoni’s confidence.
Depends what you’re looking for. Yi won’t give you many threes, but his upside is that of a good center’s. Gallo was a good rebounder and shot blocker so that may well be fine. Don’t expect Yi to be consistent, but you never know, this could be the start of a few good games for him.
March 1st, 2010 at 11:35 pm
Interesting – they started JJ Hickson at C tonight. Possibly it was because they prefer Sideshow coming off the bench, but it could also have something to do with the matchup against the non-defender avid Lee. Anyway, if it continues it pretty much guarantees JJ time on court, at least until Big Z is re-signed (if that happens), and he did pretty well tonight.
Also … Nic Batum had another productive night. Only 2 shots by halftime with the Blazers lagging behind, but they started fast breaks with Miller and Batum in the 3rd which won Portland the game and gave Nico a decent stat line. Two games in a row, both where he was instrumental in winning. Will they keep involving him in the offense, or will he continue having games where he only scores 5 points & just concentrates on defending?
March 2nd, 2010 at 12:55 am
Nic is obviously gaining the trust of his teammates. However, he’ll still have his quiet nights as a guy doesn’t flip a switch and all of a sudden he’s deadly every night (unless your name is Blatche
). The biggest Batum killer is the Blazer’s upcoming schedule; otherwise, I’d definitely be more fascinated by him.
I think you can start anyone at Center against the Knicks and they’ll have a season high. It was interesting to see Hickson get the nod, but I guess it does make sense. JJ had been starting so he and the others were comfortable with him. Similarly, AV is used to coming off the bench. Since it worked tonight, I expect the Cav’s to keep this rotation going. However, I know they can’t wait for Big Z. There will be plenty of games where JJ gets in trouble as he now has to face centers and be the #1 line of defense in the paint.
Btw, I’m pretty proud of the Bill Walker pick (well for at least as long as Chandler has to sit). Seriously, with him playing well and the Knicks playoff hopes all but dashed, he should get decent run here on out.
March 2nd, 2010 at 2:11 am
True re Bill Walker, but keep in mind he scored half his points in that game’s incredibly long garbage time. I haven’t seen him play, but he sounds like he has a similar game to Chandler.
I believe Nic has all the skills required to be a consistent scorer, plus he has fresh legs. Its just a question of whether the Blazers want to use him that way or not. If they play slow Roy & LMA dominated half-court sets Nic doesn’t feature much, but when they start running fast breaks he really comes into his own.
March 2nd, 2010 at 3:10 pm
Hey Drew, let’s not be too picky about deep league waiver wire guys.
March 2nd, 2010 at 7:53 pm
Heh, I was impressed you mentioned Bill, but if you brought him up knowing he’d do well because the game would be a blowout … wow, that’s just prescient
Is Nico a deep league player only? That’s what I’m trying to work out… Actually, now I’ve picked him up (for observation purposes, as Portland have four juicy games next week) he’ll probably revert to 20 minutes of fantasy invisibility
March 3rd, 2010 at 10:30 am
Haha – I did the same with Batum in 1 standard league I’m in. He’s at least got a decent week so why not give him a shot. However, I feel there is like a 90% chance he’ll be tossed for someone else after next week.
March 1st, 2010 at 1:09 pm
Shaq is indeed out 8 weeks so everyone should go ahead and drop the useless Superdud.
March 1st, 2010 at 6:51 pm
Ellis and Biedrins aren’t on the Warrior’s road trip. CJ and Tolliver should get substantial burn (and CJ was already killing it off the bench).
I’m still half persuaded that Ellis might be shutting it down. Biedrins though – I’d be surprised to see him play again this year.
March 2nd, 2010 at 1:00 am
Speaking of shutdown guys, Elton Brand sore calf is actually achilles tendonitis. Nothing has been said except that he’s day to day, but I’m thinking they might play it safe with him. Btw, 1 reason why you get tendonitis is weak calf muscles. Std leagues should perhaps be ready to ditch him…
March 2nd, 2010 at 11:01 am
so go with JJ or verajo or Z!?
I just snagged up marvin williams last night and i read on here to drop him? whats the deal?
I also picked up hawes the other night. He’s been solid…. for two games, ha…
my team was in first ALL YEAR and last week i was soundly beat by the 2nd place team, he jumped me, and now i have 3 weeks to make up 5.5 pts. NOT GOOD.
Gotta love a guy picking up Blatche and him scoring over 100 pts on you in a week….
March 2nd, 2010 at 3:14 pm
Hi TY. I’d recommend going with Varejao. He’s most likely to be most consistent play until the Big Z would be allowed to re-sign.
Regarding Marvin Williams, have you checked his game log? If you’re in a standard league, those February splits were pathetic. Going forward, he’ll easily post numbers more akin to these dismal averages than what he did last night.
March 2nd, 2010 at 3:51 pm
I need some last minute tips, the trade dead line is comming up (March 4) and I’m currently 4th place out of 12 with the following team..
Jason Terry
CJ Watson
Louis Williams
Eric Gordon
Danny Granger
Jeff Green
Rashard Lewis
David West
Tyrus Thomas
Gerald Wallace
Andrea Bargnani
David Lee
Jason Thompson
and I just finished off a last minute trade
I’m trading Gallinari for Jermaine O’neal..
I’m strong in Ft%, 3pt’s, Points.
Above average in Fg%, and Rebounds
I need some pointers on how to improve my team via trade.. There arnt any good waiver wire players..
Do you guys think I have what it takes to win it all?
David West
March 2nd, 2010 at 6:57 pm
Gallo for O’Neal was a great trade, especially seeing that your centres aren’t that strong. Its almost impossible to recommend trade ideas though, not knowing the other teams in your league & who’d be more likely to deal, and therefore which players would be available. There’s three guys I don’t especially trust on your team – Granger, Shard and West. Granger especially must be hurting you FG% wise. Perhaps you could look to package him with Shard or West and a top tier player (perhaps on a struggling team) in a 2 for 1 deal?
March 2nd, 2010 at 6:58 pm
Sorry, I meant “for a top tier player”, not “and a top tier player”.
March 2nd, 2010 at 5:23 pm
Rofl – I picked up Walker when Shaq had his season-ending thumb injury (which pisses me off because I just traded for him to try to win a championship).
The guys in my league were like “who the heck is that guy?” and then he proceeds to drop 21. The Knicks and Warriors continue to throw unpredictable knuckleballs on fantasy owners.
March 3rd, 2010 at 10:39 am
Lol – sweet. I live for those moments as well.
March 2nd, 2010 at 11:32 pm
Apparently (I didn’t see the game) Ben Wallace hurt his knee late in the 4th tonight. No idea if its serious or not. Jerebko’s now had two games in a row where he’s played down the stretch and gone over 40 minutes, and put up a nice double double tonight as well. If Wallace is injured it’ll be interesting to see who replaces him. Kwame and Wilcox aren’t seeing the court much these days, so you’d have to think it’d be Maxiell. If it is, I’d give both his and JJ’s fantasy prospects a significant boost.
March 3rd, 2010 at 1:21 am
Update on that – Ben’s injury has been described as minor, and “day to day”, which as we know can mean anything between playing against NY tomorrow and missing 3 weeks.
March 3rd, 2010 at 12:26 am
@ Andrew, I Took your advice, and I proposed Granger, and David West for Dirk, and Kaman.. and the other team accepted.. Was that a good deal?
March 3rd, 2010 at 12:49 am
On season average stats that’s an even trade. You lose on 3 pointers, assists and steals, but gain on rebounds, points and blocks as well as fg%.
Looking at their prospects for the rest of the season though – West and Granger have little to play for and no point to prove, and really aren’t in great form. Kaman should be ok with Gooden and Jordan playing well enough to help carry the load, and Dirk will keep being Dirk.
Well done, if only people in my league were so accomodating
March 3rd, 2010 at 10:38 am
Seems pretty good to me as well. For the playoffs, I think you just picked up two additional games played (as long as the guys play in it).
However, for those reading, I wouldn’t group West and Granger together. Danny is a definite shutdown candidate, but I don’t think David is. Chances are the Hornets are in it until at least the last week of the season.
March 3rd, 2010 at 10:12 pm
JJ Hickson is destroying Brook Lopez.
March 3rd, 2010 at 10:57 pm
… and two more good games for Bill Walker (starting at SG) and Jonas Jerebko. I was wondering what’d happen to Walker’s stats when Chandler returns, but if Chandler comes back at PF (he never plays at SF where he belongs) then there really shouldn’t be much conflict. I think Harrington’s 3 assists, which must be some kind of record for him, were all for Walker layups.
Ersan is really pushing to regain his starting spot. That Add recommendation for the Prince has ruined his career
March 4th, 2010 at 12:34 am
As a Chandler owner, should I swap him for Walker or Jerebko (or Marvin Williams?) or hold on hoping he’ll still get PT and return to his January form?
March 4th, 2010 at 1:24 am
Eh, I’d hold onto Wilson. Much like Gallo, the Knicks know where the future is so I expect him to still have at least decent opportunity.
Andrew, did you personally watch Hickson beat up on Lopez or did you just go by the box score?
March 4th, 2010 at 1:32 am
Boxscore and chat room comments – I’ll watch a replay when a I get the chance though. At half time Lopez had very few rebounds and had missed a ton of shots while JJ was rebounding well and scoring on either assisted dunks or putbacks.
It wasn’t until Varejao got an extended run at C in the 2nd half that Lopez really got going & made his box score look halfway respectable.
March 4th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
Ok, so he didn’t personally destroy Lopez (on defence anyway), as the Nets were trying to run their scoring through Brook & the Cavs were triple teaming him. On offense Brook couldn’t stop JJ though, and yes it obviously helps being on the end of James passes, same as it helps RoLo when he’s fed by Nash
Anyway, the important thing is that the Cavs look like they’ll keep playing him at the 5 and giving him good court time (more than Varejao even), and being that close to the hoop really does suit his game & give him more scoring/rebound/block opportunities.
March 4th, 2010 at 1:28 am
Tmac – instead of Mystery man – the Big Tease
Sigh. With his line tonight, people will be scrambling once again to pick him up. Even though I dropped him too, I swear I hope someone else picks him up. Fools gold in thinking that his knee will suddenly be ready to play 30+ minutes in the rest of their games. Right? {scared face}
March 4th, 2010 at 1:34 am
Heh, well for now Dantoni thinks TMac’s the man, and has given him the keys to drive the offense.
Btw I hit the nail on the head – Batum had 20 minutes of fantasy invisibility tonight
March 4th, 2010 at 7:42 pm
Wow, Terry is out for way longer than I thought he’d be… I figured he’d get a mask and be out there after just missing a few games.
I’m taking Beaubois over JJB since JJ is too short to play the 2… and Terry split time as a combo guard.
Also there was an article about Beaubois’s baller-ness on here a few months ago… which can only mean good things (unless your last name is Wright).
March 4th, 2010 at 7:47 pm
I hope you’re right John-o – commonsense says Beaubois should get more burn, but you’ve got to remember that Carlisle has an irrational love for JJB & likes to bench rookies after their first mistake.
March 4th, 2010 at 7:49 pm
If they’re available I’d take Kill Bill SkyWalker or Terrence T-Witter Williams, even Reggie “Miller” Williams over Beaubois, simply because they look like they’re assured decent PT.
March 4th, 2010 at 8:57 pm
Please, I beg you – DON’T BRING UP THE WRIGHT ARTICLE!
Haha, it’s a difficult call between the two backup PG’s in Dallas. Rick was ready to make R. Beaubois the permanent backup around a month ago but we see how well that worked out. I’m sure he’ll get another chance as coach now has to figure out a rotation he can rely on the rest of the season + probably at least a few weeks of the playoffs.
Next few games will be crucial, but I think Barea, RB and even Stevenson all get solid looks. Deep down, I feel Barea will win out while Stevenson gets some minutes if a bigger ‘2′ is needed on the court. In crucial games, I expect heavy minutes for Kidd/Butler.
March 4th, 2010 at 9:58 pm
What the – now the reports say Terry could be out as little as 7 to 10 days? Maybe Cuban has access to some medical stuff that lesser NBA teams could only dream about.
March 5th, 2010 at 12:12 am
Sounds like someone mixed up days and weeks. I mean 7-10 weeks or 7-10 days? I’m willing to be it’s in days as earlier today I read Terry tweeted he won’t be out long…
March 6th, 2010 at 10:45 pm
I’ll gladly eat crow here – Beaubois is getting playing time & making very good use of it. Pity the Mavs have such a sparse schedule over the next two weeks!
March 6th, 2010 at 1:51 am
Hmm. Couple more guys that may be of deep league interest. Krstic looks like he’s improving over the last few games, as does Matt Barnes (though he’s still at 24 minutes of PT).
March 6th, 2010 at 9:34 pm
I could also mention the dreaded QRich. He looked really good against the Lakers, and his stats show a bit of a surge lately. Four games next week too.
March 6th, 2010 at 10:54 pm
Oh, and Yi went down injured tonight. I don’t know how bad it was, but if he’s out for a while that opens things up for someone … my guess is TWill, who has already been on the improve.
March 7th, 2010 at 9:20 pm
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