Preview: Week 18

Phil Londen

When one door closes, another one opens — or so the saying goes, anyways. With the trading period closed in the NBA, it is time to scour the waiver wire and see if the trades opened up any doors for your fantasy teams. As my distinguished colleague Oleh pointed out in his breakdown of the fantasy fallout from last week’s trades, there is plenty of value to be had as a result of trades, injuries and everything in between.

The big story of the past weekend has to be the New York Knicks, post-trade deadline. For the first time in a long, long time, the Knicks are exciting and relevant again. Not only did they nearly knock-off the streaking Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night, but they did so in a way that got the crowd at MSG on their feet and into the game. A lot of that credit has to got to the new additions Eddie House, Sergio Rodriguez and of course Tracy McGrady. For the first time since the Superstar-X-to-sign-with-the-Knicks-in-the-Summer-of-2010 rumors started, it actually looks like they might be somewhat plausible.

WEEK 18 SCHEDULES

Five Games: MIL

Four Games: ATL, CHI, DAL, DET, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIN, NOR, NYK, OKC, PHO, POR, UTA, WAS

Three Games: BOS, CHA, CLE, DEN, GSW, HOU, MIA, NJN, ORL, PHI, SAC, SAS, TOR

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less of standard Yahoo! leagues)

Eddie House (PG/SG – 12%) During his debut as a New York Knickerbocker Friday night, House tallied 24 points on 57/100 percent shooting, 4 threes, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 2 turnovers. Notably, House played big minutes during crunch time and orchestrated huge plays keeping the Knicks in the game and almost willing them to victory. With that performance under his belt and considering his prior relationship with head coach Mike D’Antoni in Phoenix, House looks like a must-add until he shows signs of slowing down.

Sergio Rodriguez (PG – 9%) Like Eddie House, Spanish Chocolate is primed to experience a boost in fantasy value as a result of his recent change of address. D’Antoni’s long-standing desire (hat-tip to Oleh) to have Sergio running the point finally came true so expect him to get plenty of run for the balance of the season. With House and Sergio on board, it is time to finally cut Chris Duhon for good (still 45 percent owned), who sat from the mid-point of the third quarter through the end of the Thunder game, including all of overtime. As he acclimates to his new team, get ready for big minutes as he works his way into the starting lineup for New York.

C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 30%) Watson has had the best stretch of his young career this past week (first round per game value post-All-Star break), as a result of Golden State’s thin roster. More importantly, the absence of Monta Ellis contributed to Watson’s surprising success, which bodes well considering head coach Don Nelson has stated that he plans on limiting Ellis’ minutes down the stretch. In the three games he’s played since the All-Star break, Watson has posted 27.3 points (including a career-high 40 points against Sacramento) on 59/90 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 4.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.3 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Those numbers are fantasy gold and you have to roster C.J. in case he can keep up this kind of production with Monta playing closer to 40 minutes a game and playing a high usage role on offense.

Taj Gibson (SF/PF – 24%) There are two major factors that work in favor of Gibson’s fantasy value for the home stretch this season. The first factor is that Joakim Noah is one of the more recent NBA players to be diagnosed with the dreaded plantar fasciitis, which is a reoccurring ailment that usually requires extended periods of rest to heal. The second factor was the expulsion of Tyrus Thomas to the Charlotte Bobcats for a couple of expiring contracts and a future draft pick. That has opened up the door for a steady 30 minutes a night for Taj and so far he has responded to the challenge. In four games last week, Gibson posted top 25 per game value with an average of 13.5 points on 63/57 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 12.0 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 1.0 steal, 2.3 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. If you can handle his poor free throw percentage, Taj will be a nice addition for points, boards and blocks.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 31%) In what is becoming a theme this season, Rasual Butler just doesn’t get any respect, whether it be in real life or in fantasy basketball. He’s been getting it done all season long but continues to have lower than expected ownership levels. Since the All-Star break, Butler has been scoring well above his season average while providing tons of threes and almost no turnovers, putting him in the top 50 in per game value over the past week. In that same span, he averaged 16.7 points on 44/100 percent shooting, 3,7 threes, 3.3. rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.7 blocks and 0.3 turnovers. These numbers coupled with the trading away of Al Thornton warrant near-universal consideration for the NBA’s neglected son.

WATCH LIST

Jonas Jerebko (SF/PF – 9%) Another player that has bounced in and out of lineups this season (as well as our weekly preview pieces) is the Swedish rookie, Jonas Jerebko. The 19-34 Detroit Pistons are firmly out of the playoff picture this season so have nothing to do but play for the future, meaning a youth movement is in order at the Palace of Auburn Hills. Since the ASB, the other JJ has posted top 50 per game value, averaging 15.3 points on 63/83 percent shooting, 0.3 threes, 3.3 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.7 blocks and 0.7 turnovers in 27 minutes per game. Expect his rebounds to come up a bit and the minutes to stay steady from here on out.

Omri Casspi (SG/SF/PF – 33%) Casspi is another guy whose value was indirectly affected by a deadline trade. The Kings trading Kevin Martin was huge for his value because Wal-Mart is a high usage player on offense, sometimes to the detriment of the other four players on the floor. Sacramento’s main piece coming back for Martin was Carl Landry, who doesn’t directly compete with Casspi for minutes and therefor poses no threat to the Israeli’s PT. In the three games he played last week, he averaged 15.0 points on 49/64 percent shooting, 1.3 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Casspi’s been one of the true surprises this season so pick him up while you still can.

Hakim Warrick (SF/PF – 14%) Warrick is proving to be quite the journey-man in the NBA, as he found himself sporting his third  jersey in two years. However, he is a good fit with this Chicago team, as he fills the role of athletic forward previously filled by Ty Thomas while also providing instant offense off the bench. And this is offense Chicago can certainly use, as they are one of the league’s bottom three team in offensive efficiency. In two games as a Chicago Bull, Hack has averaged 12.5 points on 46/75 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, o.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers in 28 minutes per game. He’s mainly a specialist (points, boards) although he doesn’t really hurt you anywhere else.

James Harden (PG/SG – 33%) Harden gets a boost because the Thunder didn’t add anyone who plays his position so he should see the same amount of minutes as he has seen all season long (24 minutes per game). The Thunder are gearing up for their first playoff run since relocating to Oklahoma and will therefor be tightening and refining their playoff rotation, meaning all core players’ minutes will be safe. And perhaps a few days of rest was all the rookie needed, as he has averaged 15.5 points on 56/82 percent shooting, 2.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks and 3.0 turnovers. If you can handle the high turnovers, Harden is a great player to add down the stretch run as he contributes across the board.

Mario Chalmers (PG – 33%) Chalmers’ high ownership rate at this point is based more in potential than in actual production, as he has been a profound disappointment this season. However, he’s had strong showings against Memphis and Dallas recently, leading to post-ASB averages of 14.5 points on 50/100 percent shooting, 2.5 threes, 4.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.0 blocks and 3.0 turnovers (2 games, 36 minutes). If he proves in a couple more games that he truly is out of the doghouse after his early season banishment, add Chalmers to your roster if you are looking for a fresh PG3 option.

CUT LIST

Spencer Hawes (C – 69%) Hands down one of the most frustrating and disappointing players to own this season. Without a doubt. With the season about 70 percent complete, Hawes’ is 141st in per game value and 117th in cumulative value and yet he is 69 percent owned. With Carl Landry now on board sopping up big minutes at the four and Jason Thompson splitting time at center and power forward, Hawes is left begging for the big man scraps at the Kings’ table. For further proof, just check the distribution of minutes against the Suns: Hawes 11 minutes; Thompson 30; and Landry 38 minutes, although Spencer was admittedly dealing with a bout of foul trouble. Do yourself a favor and kick Spencer to the curb for any of the guys listed above and you’ll sleep much better tonight.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIAL

Donte Greene (SG/SF – 6%) Any guy that is listed at 6-11 and has shooting guard eligibility has my attention. He is also a coach’s favorite, as he causes all sorts of matchup problems for opposing defenses. In Sunday’s game against Phoenix, Greene played a game high 42 minutes on his way to 16 points and 5 rebounds in the tough loss. With the Kings lottery-bound (again), the youth movement is in full effect in California’s capital so grab Greene in deeper formats for a player with decent upside for the remainder of the season.


4 Responses to “Preview: Week 18”

  • Egon Says:

    The Howizter(Eddie House) returns!

  • Andrew Says:

    Good call on cutting Spencer – looks like Westphal’s followed your advice. Tonight Spence was dressed in a suit & tie, the coach saying he wanted Hawes to be clear about his role on the team. I kid you not.

    CJ Watson’s going strong & Sergio put in a good game tonight as well, hopefully he’s finding his feet. Gallo looks exhausted (I’d be looking to offload him if he has any value at all), as does Omri. Batum and Webster are platooned now, with neither playing much part in the Blazers offense.

    And lastly, I keep pointing him out, but I’ll bring him up again: Mbah a Moute (9%) started to hit regular big minutes on the 5th Feb and is playing very well as a result. With the exception of Feb 19th’s game, where he was only given 15 minutes, he’s averaging 13 points, 9.4 reb, 73% FG and FT, 70.9 TOs, a steal and a block over that period. He’s not a C, but were I looking for one off the WW I’d be very happy to find a player with those stats. He can defend SFs and SGs as well, which means he isn’t losing time to Ersan (nor to Warrick now he’s gone).

  • Andrew Says:

    RED ALERT

    Sources indicate Monta Ellis is “done” as a Warrior – he’s apparently not playing tonight due to back problems. CJ Watson immediately becomes a must-add.

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