The League’s Best Shooters
When discussing the best shooters in the game today, two names are commonly mentioned more often than others: Steve Nash and Ray Allen. Both are proficient from virtually anywhere on the court, including from the free throw line and from downtown. They are often in the games during clutch situations and both players have an impressive portfolio of clutch shots on their resume. Even more telling, both players are often heralded for their jump shots by coaches and analysts alike.
Discussions of great shooters ultimately lead to a few questions. Who is the better shooter now? Who has been the better shooter over the course of their career? And how does the better of the two shooters stack up against some of the other historically great shooters of the three point era? And what can we learn about the players from looking at the numbers?
Ray Allen versus Steve Nash
They are often referred to as natural shooters ostensibly because they have some innate abilities that allow them to shoot the ball at an exceptional clip. But that is only part of the story. Both Ray and Steve are renowned for their work ethic and their practice routines. Allen routinely knocks down 247 out of 250 shots before every game and credits a lot of his practice work ethic to his college coach at UConn, Jim Calhoun. Nash credits his work ethic during practices and the offseason as one of the primary reasons he was even able to be successful in the League, as he wasn’t blessed with extraordinary athleticism or size that is normally a prerequisite for NBA hopefuls.
Currently, both players are still extremely effective shooters from all over the court, although Allen has been slumping a bit recently perhaps as a result of the rampant trade rumors swirling around the struggling Celtics. It’s hard to gauge the full effect of the epidemic trade rumors at this part of the season but there has to be some sort of fallout, whether positive or negative. As non-professional athletes, we’ll never experience it ourselves and can only guess what it must be like. Allen is posting a pretty average season (for him, that is) in terms of shooting percentages, shooting .450 from the field, .338 from three and .892 at the stripe giving him a true shooting percentage of .568. His peak season was actually last season with the Celtics, where he put up .480/.409/.952 on his way to a true shooting percentage of .624 during an all-around excellent shooting campaign.
Nash, on the other hand, is still putting up incredible percentages across the board, shooting .522 percent from the field, .438 from downtown and .939 from the line. He is also averaging the second highest true shooting percentage of his entire career at .635. During his peak shooting season of 2006-07, he shot .532/.455/.899 for a true shooting percentage of .654.
In terms of career numbers, Nash has percentages of .489 from the floor, .432 percent from downtown and .903 percent from the line. These are nearly career averages of 50/40/90 in fourteen seasons and over 30,000 minutes played. His career true shooting percentage is .606. All of Nash’s career numbers are pretty mind-blowing and definitely put him amongst the elite shooters in the three point era. In nearly 37,000 minutes over a fifteen year career, Ray Allen has posted percentages of .448/.396/.893 and a true shooting percentage of .574. Again, Ray’s numbers are extremely impressive in their own right, but he falls just short of Nash’s ridiculous percentages.
In terms of current production, Nash has the edge. In terms of peak production, Nash again has the edge. And finally, in terms of career percentages, Nash once again has the edge. Nash is the clear-cut winner, making a strong case to be considered the best active shooter in the NBA.
But there is more.
Breaking it down even further by range using shot data location for both Steve Nash and Ray Allen, we can chop the floor into zones and compare their shooting percentages in each midrange area to see where each player excelled during their peak seasons (2006-07 for Nash, 2008-09 for Allen). At the rim, Nash shot a scorching 67 percent with Ray shooting 60 percent. From less than ten feet, Allen shot 60 percent, trumping Nash’s 59 percent. From ten-to-fifteen, Nash shot 53 percent and Ray shot 47 percent. Finally, from 16-to-23 feet (a.k.a the long two a.k.a the worst shot in basketball), Steve shot 50 percent with Allen barely trailing at 49 percent; pretty much a push with the Canadian having the slight edge. Again, Steve is the overall better shooter in most areas of the floor with the area from the rim to ten feet belonging to Allen.
With Nash seemingly the better shooter based upon the statistics alone, is there any possible explanation as to why Nash’s percentages may be inflated relative to Allen’s?
Perhaps it is related to the positions each player plays on the court? Steve plays the point, meaning opposing players expect him to distribute, possibly giving him easier looks when he does decide to shoot (initiates the offense). He may also only choose to shoot when he has high percentage looks at the rim (shot selection). Ray plays the two guard, meaning opposing players expect him to shoot possibly giving him more difficult looks as players are hesitant to give him any space whatsoever (defined role). He is also subject to the point guard’s whims which can result in being forced into taking lower percentage shots (designated gunner). While these counter-points are valid, they are not enough to explain away the statistical dominance of Steve Nash’s shooting numbers over Ray Allen’s shooting numbers.
Now, with that debate more or less settled, the question becomes how does Nash stack up against some of the all time great shooters of the three point era?
The 50-40-90 Club
The mark of an elite shooter is their ability to shoot well from the field, the free throw line and from behind the three point line. The gold standard of elite shooters in each of these three areas is 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from the free three and 90 percent from the line. Hitting all of these milestones and sustaining those averages over an 82 game season presents the challenge that separates the historically great shooters from the merely the above-average shooters.
Before proceeding, a disclaimer. The 50-40-90 Club is definitely not the ultimate measure of elite shooters in the League. It is simply one means of comparing players objectively in the three major areas of shooting, from the field, from the three point line and from the free throw line. Plus, the results pass the laugh test, as the Club members includes names everybody mentions when discussing the great shooters of the three point era.
Take a look at the current list of members of the 50-40-90 Club. Since the inception of the three point line in 1979, only seven players have obtained membership to the Club (total of eleven separate seasons). Only two players have ever joined the list more than once with Steve Nash appearing four separate times (2005-06; 2007-08; 2008-09; 2009-10) and Larry Bird appearing twice (1986-87; 1987-88). The other single season members are Dirk Nowitzki (2006-07), Steve Kerr (1995-96), Jose Calderon (2007-08), Mark Price (1988-89) and Reggie Miller (1993-94). Notice that Ray Allen has never made the 50-40-90 Club in his career, which further reinforces the notion that Nash is probably the better shooter of the two.
Not bad company at all, especially considering Nash’s four appearances in the Club double the nearest competitor (Larry Legend). Without taking too much away from Nash, changes to hand checking rules among other rules have probably greatly benefited Nash (not to mention Calderon and Dirk as well) making it a bit easier to join the 50-40-90 Club. The point of mentioning this isn’t to detract from Nash or the others that joined the Club since the hand-checking rules but instead to highlight what an achievement it is for Larry Legend, Mark, Steve and Reggie. Just imagine Miller’s or Bird’s numbers if opposing defenders weren’t allowed to touch him when he was facing the basket?
This season, Nash is the only current member of the 50-40-90 Club. However, if you loosen the terms a bit to 47/37/87 percent, you see that there are a few other players on the cusp of joining the 50-40-90 Club including Anthony Morrow, Kevin Durant, Luke Ridnour and Beno Udrih. Also, Dirk is on the cusp of joining Nash and Bird in the elite group of players making multiple appearances in the 50-40-90 Club under those same loosened terms. Mike Miller receives the honorable mention for joining the on-the-cusp group with Miller being deficient in only free throw percentage (.828 this season). At the same time, if he qualified (minimum 700 points scored in season), he would be posting a League-best true shooting percentage of .714, based largely upon his absurd three point percentage of .538.
Conclusions
After reviewing the data, a few things are fairly clear. In the debate of Ray Allen versus Steve Nash, Nash is most likely the superior shooter, with Nash topping Ray during the current season, during their respective peak seasons and during their entire careers. As mentioned before, there are perhaps positional explanations for why Nash may have gotten easier looks than Ray throughout his career. It is also clear that Nash is one of the elite shooters of the three point era. However, being unable to compare the careers of the pre- and post-hand-checking rule eras, it is almost impossible to definitively so one way or the other so Nash is relegated to only being one of the best shooters of the three point era as a four-time member of the 50-40-90 Club.
February 12th, 2010 at 1:16 pm
Check it out made it to True Hoops Friday’s bullets, great analysis Phil. As a suns fan: go Nash!
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/13109/friday-bullets-144
February 12th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
Nice find Deebo. That’s cool!
February 12th, 2010 at 5:35 pm
Thanks for the heads-up, Deebo!
February 12th, 2010 at 1:48 pm
Nash will soon be joined by Durant methinks.
February 12th, 2010 at 5:36 pm
Judging by how good of a shooter he is already, Durant has great potential to join the ranks of elite shooters in the League. Good call, Valas!
February 12th, 2010 at 2:47 pm
Comparing pre and post handcheck, just extrapolate by comparing what the avg. players’ %s are in each era.
February 12th, 2010 at 5:38 pm
Excellent point. I had not thought of this, if you can believe that. But it could be a nice means of adjusting for the difference of the pre- and post-hand checking rules. I will look into it and may have some follow-up observations. Thanks for the comment, Mike.
February 12th, 2010 at 3:10 pm
What a well written article. All English 101 student should study this piece of writing. BRAVO
February 12th, 2010 at 5:39 pm
I’m flattered! Thanks for the high praise, Andrew. I think all English 101 classes should have a section devoted to reading basketball articles. That would certainly be more interesting.
February 12th, 2010 at 5:00 pm
I will note that players that have a higher usage percentage typically shoot lower percentages–the opposition covers them more tightly. This makes KD’s percentages even more impressive.
February 12th, 2010 at 5:25 pm
Agreed – good observation. It’ll really be interesting once his body fully develops and the extra weight helps stop him from being pushed around.
February 12th, 2010 at 5:40 pm
Echoing RedHopeful: that is indeed a good observation and probably worth a post of it’s own… Thanks for the comment, DSMok1.
February 12th, 2010 at 7:01 pm
Great article. I think Steve Nash isn’t given enough credit as a shooter. His percentages are probably as exceptional as any other part of his game. I have one problem however with the article. Ray Allen shoots a lot more threes than Nash does, and he is in fact on pace to become the all time leader in 3pt shots made. It shouldn’t be the deciding factor, but I think in trying to gauge who the better shooter is, a fact like that should definitely come up. They entered the league at the same time but Allen has made almost 1000 more 3pt shots!
February 13th, 2010 at 12:47 am
Matt, I actually considered the three point discrepancy and that is partially why I chose to include true shooting percentage into the discussion (accounts for threes and free throw percentage) and the 50-40-90 Club. The three point discrepancy only negatively affects FG% of the three factors. But definitely a valid point and something that I did not overtly acknowledge in the post.
February 12th, 2010 at 8:39 pm
Great analysis. I think there are a couple of other factors in Nash’s favor. He has the added responsibilities of playing the point and he is often playing against a larger player where Allen is probably avg to above avg height for a 2 guard. As for defenders keying in on Allen because he is a 2 guard, he often runs off 2 or 3 screens in a designed play and often pretty open looks. Granted Nash plays pick and roll plenty as well. Nash’s shooting is definitely underrated because he is such an unbelievable passer!
February 13th, 2010 at 12:51 am
Thanks for the comment, Steve! It would be a really interesting to sub Nash into some of those Celtics plays were they run those 2 or 3 down screens to give Ray enough separation to get a clean, open look in a catch and shoot situation. I would imagine (like you mentioned) that Steve doesn’t get a lot of looks like that and that he’d hit those at a very high clip. But unfortunately, no way of actually carrying this out.
And also the point about his passing helping create open looks for himself is well-taken.
February 13th, 2010 at 6:43 am
Nash’s career 3 point percentage is almost as high as Ray Allens’ from the field overall. Don’t forget that Nash is usually taking horse like shots over defenders who are taller than he is. Rarely does a point guard cover him, and he doesn’t get the benefit of illegal screens from the Celtic’s bigs.
Nash also has the whole burden of making everyone on his team better while figuring out when to pass and when to shoot. Nash is a superior shooter.
February 13th, 2010 at 1:45 pm
The point about the Celtics’ bigs (mainly KG) setting illegal screens is valid but only affects Ray Allen’s last couple of shooting seasons and incidentally his peak shooting season occurred in Boston. Coincidence?
February 13th, 2010 at 6:49 am
awesome article, thoroughly enjoyed reading it…just one typo chief,
“The gold standard of elite shooters in each of these three areas is 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from the free throw line and 90 percent from the line”
keep up the good work
February 13th, 2010 at 1:46 pm
Thanks, Adam. I corrected the typo you pointed out.
February 13th, 2010 at 10:18 am
All in all a good article but some Info that speak in Rays favor could have been mentioned. First for me a good shooter also is adept at getting free and getting his shots. The way Ray maintained high percentages his early career with no big to draw defenders and with him being the focal point of the offense is worth mentioning. And as an aside usage% and last minute possesions. It seems obvious to me that Rays percentages suffered when he wasn´t a celtic because he had to take so many shots and so many bad ones because there was no one else.
February 13th, 2010 at 1:54 pm
The usage argument is interesting. Ray Allen is a career 25.0 percent usage and Steve Nash is a career 21.2 percent usage. So their usage is in the same ballpark but with Ray having to should a heavier burden. The talent argument is interesting as well as Steve has on the whole probably had better teammates than Ray but I’d say it is relatively close. Having good teammates allows you to get easier looks as it keeps the opposing defenses honest. Thanks for the comment, Zeiramsy.
February 13th, 2010 at 1:33 pm
While Nash is definitely better in percentages, Ray Allen has more total threes made. Also he has to take a massive amount of contested shots because guards play beyond the three on him. Nash also plays in an uptempo offense, which creates more open shots. But Nash is still a better shooter
February 13th, 2010 at 2:03 pm
Thanks for the comment, t. The contested shots issue is definitely interesting but is nearly impossible to objectively analyze using the statistics that are publicly available.
February 14th, 2010 at 3:25 pm
Steve Nash as a point guard has a host of responsibilities greater than his scoring to worry about; Allen is allowed to mostly focus on shooting period. IMO Nash’s shooting is even more difficult because of his focus which has to cover so many facets of the game.
February 15th, 2010 at 5:45 pm
Good point, Charlie. The fact that he does all those things so well is simply just another feather in his cap.
February 15th, 2010 at 3:10 am
It’s amazing how much we often take Steve Nash for granted, but he certainly has been one of the best shooters of this or any era.
February 15th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
Thanks for the comment, Michael. Couldn’t agree more about how he is taken for granted.
February 17th, 2010 at 2:02 am
Just wondering, how does the comparison look if we remove shots at the basket – i.e. layups and close shots?
It feels as though Nash attempts many more layups than Allen, due to his role as plucky point guard. Surely layups would not come under the category of “pure shooter.” Is my assumption borne out by the data?
March 11th, 2010 at 1:09 am
I’m sure you guys saw this already: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100309. Two things: 1. He came to the exact same conclusion of Nash being the GOAT shooter. 2. Apparently John Hollinger gets his takes from basketballfreeforall!