Preview: Week 16
Sorry for the delay guys, but there was a football game yesterday and it happened to include my favorite team – the New Orleans Saints. With their monumental win, there had to be an equally impressive celebration on my part. Laissez le bon temps rouler!
As you’ll notice with this upcoming week’s schedule, it’s a short week (yeah it’s the All-Star game!) In addition, NBA teams will be pressured to make a trade or two with the deadline less than two weeks away. Likewise, you should be making your final adjustments with your fantasy lineups. Whether you’re looking to add extra firepower for the upcoming playoffs, improve on a category or two or just looking to upgrade possible keepers, now is the time to act.
Week Sixteen Schedules
Four Games: NONE
Three Games: ORL
Two Games: ATL, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, LAC, LAL, MIA, MIL, MIN, NJN, NOH, PHI, POR, SAC, SAS, UTA
One Game: BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, PHX, TOR, WAS
ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)
Taj Gibson (SF/PF – 11%) – With Tyrus Thomas continuing to fall out of favor, look for Taj to maintain his solid run. Sure he’s dealing with plantar fasciitis, but this injury has been with him since the summer and it looks like it won’t knock him out like it did Joakim Noah. Consequently, expect him to have strong rebounding/block games many a night with the occasional solid FG% and points.
Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 27%) – The last six games, Ryan has averaged 14.2 points (on 53.6 FG% and 76.9 FT%), 2.5 3ptm, 4.0 rebounds, 1.0 steals and a minuscule .3 TO’s. With the Timberwolves riding a previously thought impossible 4 game winning streak, look for his usage to continue to be solid.
George Hill (PG/SG – 29%) – Sure Tony Parker may be back, but it appears it isn’t going to dent Mr. Hill too much as Popovich will continue to start him at SG. Case in point, the last two games, he’s averaged 33.5 minutes which includes 19 points and 2.5 3ptm per contest. Usually he’s also good for solid percentages and a few defensive numbers.
Antonio McDyess (PF/C – 21%) – Nothing flashy here, but if you’re interested in consistent rebounds and FG% with almost zero turnovers, Antonio is your man. His last 7 game average: 10.4 points (on 56.5 FG%), 6.7 rebounds and .7 TO’s. If he’s truly feeling in better condition, I also expect his defensive numbers to pick up somewhat. However, just be sure to temper expectations just a bit. He plays next to Tim Duncan plus I don’t see any reason why Popovich won’t continue to give the bench solid minutes (DeJuan Blair, Matt Bonner).
CUT LIST (No need to shed a tear)
Lou Williams (PG – 61%) – Provided Allen Iverson’s kid was really sick and he returns, many owners should consider dropping Sweet Lou. When Eddie Jordan has it out for you, you’re not going to play. Just ask Elton Brand owner’s earlier in the year. Or how about presently hopeful Marreese Speights‘ fans? Even Willie Green is ahead of Williams at the moment so being the 4th Philly guard in the rotation for a team that has just won 4 straight, I don’t like his chances at solid fantasy production for at least the next few weeks.
WATCH LIST (Deep Leagues pounce, but standard leagues first weigh the options)
TJ Ford (PG – 31%) – TJ’s two game audition since his benching went VERY well over the weekend as he averaged 15.5 points (on 72.2 FG% and 100 FT%), 1.5 3ptm (!?!), 3.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.0 steals. Jim O’Brien now faces a very difficult decision, but it’s hard to imagine TJ not being back in the rotation after his stellar play. If you’ve got room, he makes for a solid speculative pick at this point.
Donte Greene (SG/SF – 5%) – Donte is relevant again (averaging over 31 minutes the last 5 games – 13.8 points, 1.4 3ptm and 5.2 boards), but it’s anyone’s guess as to how long it’ll last. Personally, I don’t trust Paul Westphal much and neither should you. Outside of Tyreke Evans and Kevin Martin, seems like everyone else must prove they deserve court time come each game. Ride him if need be but be prepared to move on.
Ryan Hollins (PF/C – 4%) – Since moving into the starting lineup (4 games), Ryan has averaged 13.5 points (on 61.8 FG%) and 1.0 blocks but little else (3.5 rebounds – ick!) He’s definitely worth a flier in deeper leagues but I’m very hesitant to recommend him in standard leagues. Playing next to Al Jefferson and Kevin Love doesn’t leave too many paint scraps so expect this type of production to continue.
Ramon Sessions (PG – 23%) – Don’t look now, but Ramon is making a push for the majority of minutes at point guard in Minnesota. The last eight games, Ramon has averaged 11.0 points (on 50 FG% and 81.5 FT%), 2.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.1 steals with only 1.3 TO’s. It’s apparent to many fans that he should replace Jonny Flynn as the team’s starter as he gives them their best chance to win. It’ll be interesting to see if Rambis gets the blessing by the front office to go this obvious route.
STAY THE COURSE (Don’t jump ship just yet)
Mike Conley (PG – 61%) – In a league or two, I’ve noticed fellow managers have jettisoned this Memphis point guard. No doubt he’s strung together some very poor performances (5 game stretch: 7.2 points (on 27.1 FG%) 0 3ptm, 2.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists). However, it should be taken with a grain of salt as I fully expect him to get back into the swing of things. Conley has been an instrumental part of the Grizzlies resurgence this season and he’s not about to be benched in favor of either of their backup point guards.
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIAL (Name(s) that could be flying under the radar in your deep league)
Rodrigue Beaubois (PG/SG – 1%) – This past week, Maverick’s coach Carlisle stated that Rodrigue would at least start getting all the backup minutes at point guard (move over JJ Barea). Then, in the Maverick’s last game, the rookie almost helped the Mavericks beat the Timberwolves by putting up 17 points (on 6 of 10 from the field, 4 of 5 from downtown) and 2 steals. Looks like Phil was right to promote him this preseason!
The Mavs brass is almost as enamored of Beaubois’ attitude as his unique athleticism. And that’s saying something, considering the kid has a 6-10 wingspan, quickness that compared favorably with Devin Harris‘ during predraft tests and a 39-inch vertical leap.
Source: ESPN
Anthony Tolliver (PF/C – 2%) – Yeah, we’ve been here before, but I still really like him. This past Saturday, the Golden State Warriors decided to sign Anthony for the rest of the season while disposing of Speedy Claxton’s 5.2 million dollar expiring contract. While a questionable choice for sure, it shouldn’t take away from how the organization thinks he’ll help this team the rest of the year. Opportunity knocks! Factoring in Nellie’s VladRad disdain, Tolliver not having to look over his back for a contract and more time to get comfortable in GSW, I think he’ll put up some very serviceable numbers throughout the rest of the year.
MYSTERY MAN
Ben Gordon (SG – 86%) – Although he’s admittedly still not 100%, Ben claims he is getting close. A recent outburst of 26 points with 4 3ptm against Indiana seem to support this notion, but should you trust him? I have a hard time saying yes. Groin injuries for quite high jump shooters are a bad mix. More importantly, as the article mentions, the playoffs most likely aren’t happening so why should Gordon continue to play with pain and suffer further setbacks?
February 8th, 2010 at 12:49 pm
Oh Btw, didn’t really have anyone jump out at me for Buy Low/Sell High (not to mention pressed for time). I was thinking Andrei Kirilenko as a sell high since he’s playing ungodly right now. Who you guys like?
February 8th, 2010 at 12:51 pm
I was waiting for this when I got up this morning. : )
Tough week for good teams though. Very short, which means the margin for error is very tiny and you could get outplayed by quite a bit with so few games coming up.
February 8th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
Haha, sorry Jimmy. I blame New Orleans – funny how that excuse almost always works too!
February 8th, 2010 at 3:10 pm
Nice piece, as always, Oleh. Glad to see my man Roddy getting some minutes and some love. Also, I would say Lamar Odom is a sell high candidate, as Andrew pointed out in the comments for last week’s preview piece.
For buy lows, I would consider guys to benefit from trade scenarios that have a decent chance of working out. One that comes to mind is Kevin Martin. If moved, his numbers could increase (just need that damn FG% to head back up).
February 8th, 2010 at 4:49 pm
Yeah – I did consider Kevin Martin, but it’s hard to condone him when I think his future is quite murky (I’m not sold he gets moved). Plus, a few owners I targeted seem to still believe he’ll snap out of it and seem to be asking too much in return.
Just read that Maggette is out several games. Be interesting to see who benefits the most. Morrow or Tolliver? Heck, maybe even Karl??
February 8th, 2010 at 5:48 pm
Thanks for the preview Oleh
Blatche is one guy I’ve firmly got on a watch list, but in this case its watching for either Haywood or AJ (especially AJ) to be traded. Once they’re moved Blatche looks bound to get a ton of PT, and his early season form looked very promising.
Another to look out for is Ty Lawson. Billups looks like he’s suffering a bit of wear & tear, and if there’s any indication he’ll miss significant time Lawson becomes a must-add, similar to Collison at New Orleans.
Perhaps Al Harrington could be a buy low? His PT’s declined at the Bricks, partly due to a nagging injury, and he is a trade candidate. His owners have got to be feeling pretty frustrated with him right now.
February 8th, 2010 at 10:52 pm
Also, Portland probably want to move Steve Blake & get a big in return. Their natural trade partner is Washington, who are reportedly quibbling over wanting Rudy. Anyway … if Blake does become a wizard, who starts/gets minutes out of him & Foye?
Were Blake to become a Knick he’d definitely start, but that seems an unlikely destination.
February 8th, 2010 at 11:35 pm
Thanks Andrew. Definitely agree about watching the Washington situation VERY closely. Blatche could be an extremely nice pick-up. Not so sure about Harrington. He’s become such a chucker that when he comes into a game, the ball movement really comes to a grinding halt. You can tell D’Antoni isn’t happy but he’s got no one else he’d rather go with.
I really think Portland will try to land Kurt Thomas to help the front court.
Btw, the buy low window on Vince Carter has closed. He’s been spectacular against my beloved Hornets thus far.
February 9th, 2010 at 12:32 am
If only Damps was traded or something. Gooden would be such a useful pickup … all those rebounds _and_ he hits a ton of free-throws. Right now he’s running amok through the Warriors like a bull in a china shop.
February 9th, 2010 at 12:37 am
Looks like Morrow’s back as well.
February 9th, 2010 at 10:08 am
Damps as a trade target is interesting. I know he has a quirky contract where if he meets certain performance measures his contract becomes guaranteed (like a certain number of games played, for example) next season. Not sure what the status is on that one but if he misses the milestones and is in fact expiring next season, he could be highly likely to get moved in the next week or two meaning Gooden is not a bad speculative add at this point if you have dead roster space. With the Mavs struggling and Cuban being Cuban, I could see them definitely making a move or two to try and make a postseason run.
Thanks for the heads up on Ammo, Andrew.
February 9th, 2010 at 10:13 am
Deep leaguers take note: Darrell Arthur to play tonight.
February 9th, 2010 at 11:01 am
Deep leaguers take note: Reggie Evans to play tomorrow.
February 9th, 2010 at 11:06 am
Perhaps C.J. Watson may be relevant again with Monta Ellis’ latest injury, especially if his MRI results are bad.
Also word on the street is that Delonte West will play tonight.
February 9th, 2010 at 12:01 pm
One guy that should be mentioned for deep leagues is Joey Dorsey. Put up some serviceable big man stats the last two games in limited minutes.
Also going to be interesting to see what O’Brien does tonight regarding the Pacer’s PG situation.
February 9th, 2010 at 5:47 pm
Re Morrow, I think he did so spectacularly well due in large part to Maggette’s absense. When Bad Porn was playing Morrow saw a lot less of the ball. Will have to wait & see…
Re Dampier, there’s a thread on the realgm Mavs forum called “DUST update” that keeps track of his contract status. Basically there’s no way now he’ll play enough time to guarantee his contract. They may still keep him though, on the basis that his defence around the hoop will be vital in the playoffs.
February 9th, 2010 at 6:18 pm
Ellis on sprained left knee: “It’s not as bad as it looks or I made it seem. … It was the knee I had surgery on, so it was a little scary.”
Doesn’t sound like it’ll keep him out for long.
February 9th, 2010 at 10:44 pm
Prince (the Bucks one) is really starting to put up some nice efficient numbers recently. Delfino OTOH has forgotten how to shoot.
February 9th, 2010 at 11:00 pm
Kevin Martin off the bench today as Westphal continues his perpetually changing lineup experiment. Casspi, Greene and of course Evans are the dominant scorers. Beno & Hawes also started, but were benched after 5 minutes and rode pine the rest of the game. JT had a good run off the bench and put up nice numbers for a change. Fantasy-wise this really sucks – you like seeing new guys get opportunities but you never know if good play will be rewarded in subsequent games (case in point I’m playing Hawes this week!).
Anyway, Greene and Casspi really did well. Greene’s really looking like he’s putting it together lately – I’m considering picking one of them up … but which???
February 9th, 2010 at 11:42 pm
Nico Batum with the start…
February 10th, 2010 at 1:57 am
… and he did better than his boxscore might indicate, as he was run ragged trying to defend Durant all night. He scored all 12 points in the first quarter, but was only given two shot opportunities from then on. Its worth following him to see what happens, as he really has considerable talent.
February 10th, 2010 at 2:35 am
Greene/Casspi – was going to pair up both in the preview but decided not to. Haha – would have definitely been apt! Which one to pick up? Flip your favorite coin. IF pressed, I’d have to give the nod to Casspi. He seems to have a certain fire + IQ that will allow him to get more minutes when they’re both struggling.
Agree about Batum – world of talent. Also, I think he’ll benefit the most when Roy gets back. A lot more wide open shots, etc…
February 10th, 2010 at 1:17 pm
I’d pick Casspi just because he put a cheap shot to the face of Austin Daye during Summer League. Basically showed the skinny guy out of Gonzaga why he should have stayed in school another year.
February 10th, 2010 at 6:02 pm
I actually held Casspi, but dropped him when Martin returned. I’m actually leaning more towards Greene due to his FG%. Casspi’s never played anything like this amount of basketball in his life, and he’s already feeling a lot of fatigue, which is why his shot is suffering. I think that’ll continually limit the number of minutes he gets on court, as he’ll be more effective in shorter bursts. Next year, assuming they have a clearer roster without logjams @ SF, Casspi will be set to explode.
February 10th, 2010 at 10:25 pm
Nico Batum benched again, as Nate wants Blake to start this game. No idea when or whether Batum will see starter’s minutes again.
February 11th, 2010 at 12:33 am
Batum basically a non-factor in tonight’s game against the Suns to free up a spot for Steve Blake, who killed us.
February 10th, 2010 at 11:14 pm
What does everyone think of Nazr Mohammed? He’s certainly turned in some stunning statlines recently. Is it the start of some semi-reliable production, or just a short lived flash in the pan?
February 11th, 2010 at 12:37 am
I think Nazr has been surprisingly effective for the Bobcats but I think his days are numbered after the All-Star break as Tyson Chandler gets more involved and gets his legs back. With that being said, it is pretty tough to discount his extremely strong play so if I had dead weight I would probably add him in deeper formats. However, I have no expectations that he can keep producing at such and effective pace going forward.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:33 am
Thanks Phil. I haven’t seen any Bobcats games so I all had to go off are box scores and comments on forums, which are often very misleading.
Btw look at the Curry/Morrow/Tolliver show tonight – Clips don’t know what’s hit ‘em. I’ve heard many criticisms of Morrow (slow, one-trick pony, can’t create own shot etc), but his last couple of games have begged to differ. I can only imagine what he’d do as a focal point on offense rather than a spot-up role player getting occasional shots while other players dominate.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:47 am
Agreed about Nazr. Larry Brown still sits him quite a bit more than expected against many an opponent. Considering how much LB has raved over Tyson’s interior defense/rebounding, Nazr doesn’t stand much of chance IMO.
Yeah curry/morrow/tolliver really killing it. Too bad Ellis and Maggette will be back in the blink of an eye.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:53 am
Perhaps LB is saving Nazr’s legs for the business end of the season. Then again, he’s had no hesitation playing Crash & Diaw 40 minutes a night, which perhaps is responsible for GW’s recent slump.
I’m looking at those guys (Tolliver/Morrow) as WW pickups towards the last couple of weeks. Maggette & Ellis are bound to be rested at some point, and when they are … party time
February 12th, 2010 at 12:56 am
Dice started out well tonight, but gets sat down after 6 minutes for Bonner … and Pops goes with a series of smallball lineups for the rest of the half. Grizzly was only given 6 minutes as well.
This has become quite a (losing) habit of Pops lately, and it doesn’t bode well for either Blair’s or Dice’s fantasy prospects.
February 12th, 2010 at 2:16 am
Dice got a longer run in the 3rd quarter, again played well, again sat out the rest of the game. Blair saw a bit more of the court, and fortunately for him doesn’t need much time to rack up double-doubles.
February 12th, 2010 at 11:40 am
Thanks for the Spurs updates, Andrew.
February 12th, 2010 at 10:48 pm
You’re welcome. I’m trying to decide whether its worth dropping McDyess for Nazr, Tolliver or Hawes – not an easy decision right now.
February 13th, 2010 at 12:07 am
In one league, I dropped Dice for Tolliver…
February 13th, 2010 at 12:09 am
First trade just prior to the deadline:
Caron Butler/Stevenson for Josh Howard…Haywood and a few Dallas players (Tim Thomas or Drew Gooden) might be added to it as well.
I picked up Blatche in a few leagues for speculative purposes…
February 13th, 2010 at 8:59 am
Gooden’s also a decent spec pickup. He’s playing with a lot of hustle in a contract year, and might earn himself the starting job ahead of Blatche.
February 13th, 2010 at 10:53 am
Absolutely. Reason no Gooden love is because every league I’m in, he’s already owned.