Preview: Week 15
Golden State Warriors fans had to be displeased watching Brandon Jennings take the League by storm right out of the gates this season knowing that their team passed him up to draft another promising young guard. However, they now understand why, as Stephen Curry has been playing at an incredibly high level amidst incredible adversity. Over the past month, Curry has posted first round value while averaging 19.5 points on .484/.879 percent shooting, 2.4 threes, 4.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.6 turnovers. Congratulations if you drafted Curry or snagged him off the wire early on in the season but this kid definitely deserves to be recognized for his outstanding play as of late.
Season Tracker
The season is 56 percent complete.
Week 15 Schedules
Four Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DEN, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIL, NJN, NOR, POR, SAC, WAS
Three Games: CHA, CLE, DAL, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, SAS, TOR, UTA
Two Games: MIN
Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)
Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 37%) Since being included in last week’s preview post, Rush’s ownership rate has jumped eleven percent, meaning managers are starting to take notice and add him to rosters. If he is still available in any of your competitive leagues, now is your last chance to grab him. Over the past week, Brandon has averaged 14.8 points on .452/.800 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 5.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.4 blocks and 1.6 turnovers in 36.4 minutes per game. His response to being promoted into the starting lineup has been encouraging as evidence by the upward trend with his minutes. [TOR DET @MIL]
Drew Gooden (PF/C – 26%) For a third or fourth center, you can do a lot worse than Drew Gooden these days. Over the past six games, he has made a solid impact in limited minutes (22.4 per game). Over that span, he has averaged 11.4 points on .548/.833 percent shooting, 0.2 threes, 7.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Plus, Gooden is just one Erick Dampier injury away from seeing 35 minutes a night so stash him away if you can make room on your bench. [@UTA GSW MIN]
Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 20%) Since Devin Brown departed for the Windy City, Thornton has been on an offensive tear as the Hornets’ starting shooting guard. In the three games since, he has averaged 19.0 points on .556/.889 percent shooting, 3.0 threes, 2.7 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Most importantly for New Orleans, two of these three games were wins so Marcus should be locked into the starting lineup for the foreseeable future. The rookie’s value comes from threes, points, field goal percentage, turnovers and free throw percentage so snag him if you need a scoring guard off of the waiver wire. [PHX OKC PHI @CHA]
George Hill (PG/SG – 20%) Hill’s been on our radar for a while now but the latest Tony Parker injury has really solidified his role over the next couple of weeks and makes him a good short-to-medium term play. In his ten starts this season, Hill has averaged 15.9 points on .472/.711 percent shooting, 1.2 threes, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.1 turnovers. The sophomore from IUPUI provides similar value to Thornton, although I’d probably roll the dice with Marcus first as his role looks more secure for the long term. [@SAC @POR @LAC]
Nicolas Batum (SG/SF – 6%) Batum has looked really good for the Trailblazers in the three games he’s played since returning from his shoulder injury. He’s played so well, in fact, that he has outplayed starter Martell Webster, who is playing at an extremely high level lately himself, and has many calling for him to be moved into the starting unit. This season, he has averaged 21.7 minutes per game, 11.3 points on .667/1.00 percent shooting, 1.0 threes, 4.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.7 turnovers. Before you rush right out and pick him up, consider a couple of factors. One, it was all done without Brandon Roy and two, head coach Nate McMillan loves his offensive spark off the bench. But if you have anyone you can safely cut at this point, Batum makes a nice prospect to stash on your bench. [CHA @UTA SAS LAL]
Watch List
Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 30%) Butler just keeps getting it done this season and has been a mainstay of our weekly previews at BFFA this season. Over the past week, he put up top 75 value while averaging 12.3 points on .391/1.00 percent shooting, 1.5 threes, 2.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. On the season, he has posted cumulative value just outside the top 1oo and yet only has 30 percent ownership. Pick him up if you need a three point specialist who contributes slightly in the defensive categories without bringing turnovers. [@CHI @ATL SAS]
Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 28%) Just when you thought his early-season run was over, Ersan has quietly been putting up solid numbers again in limited minutes. Recently, Ilyasova has been seeing between 15 and 25 minutes per game and has posted some marginal lines, including a 15 point, 6 rebound effort against Philadelphia in only 20 minutes. Right now, all he needs is for his minutes to return and he’ll provide quality stats once again so keep him on your watch list until you see his minutes rise into the 30’s again. [@MIA @ORL @NYK IND]
Antonio McDyess (PF/C – 20%) The veteran big man is finally finding his niche in San Antonio and his production is increasing as a result. He has been moved back into the starting lineup during the past two games and has averaged 28.0 minutes per game, 14.0 points on .813/.400 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.0 steals, 0.5 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. Overall, he provides decent big man production off the wire so give him a look if you can handle his poor free throw percentage (albeit on low attempts). [@SAC @POR @LAC]
Goran Dragic (PG/SG – 17%) The Slovenian lefty has played the best basketball of his career lately and single-handily willed the Suns to a victory against the Golden State Warriors. He has also set (and then re-set his career high) in scoring (32 points) over the past few games. He is playing with a ton of confidence lately and has at times has led some extremely productive stretches for the Suns second unit. Watch Goran’s minutes closely over the next few games, as they have been in flux lately as the slumping Suns try and remember how to win basketball games. [@NOR @DEN @SAC]
Arron Afflalo (SG – 13%) It’s rare to find someone who is putting up top-60 value over the past month with such low ownership levels. However, Afflalo’s numbers don’t jump out at you but instead are based upon his efficient statistical line. Over the past month (14 games), Arron has averaged 29.3 minutes per game, 11.9 points per game on .517/.842 percent shooting, 2.2 threes, 3.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.4 blocks and 1.4 turnovers. Pick up AA if you need a nice boost in threes while providing positive value in the efficiency categories (field goal percentage, free throw percentage, turnovers). [SAC PHX @LAL @UTA]
Taj Gibson (SF/PF – 11%) If you are looking for help in boards and blocks, look no further than rookie Taj Gibson. Gibson has had decent stretches of fantasy value this season and at this point it is clear that he is ahead of Tyrus Thomas in Chicago’s pecking order. If you need proof, just peruse their respective game logs and compare their minutes in recent games. With TT’s contract expiring, it is clear they are trying to move him for another piece and that Gibson is a player they are trying to develop for the future. If Thomas gets moved and no big man comes back in the deal, Taj should see an increased role and will provide good value in boards and blocks going forward. [LAC @PHI @MIA ATL]
Ryan Anderson (SF/PF – 10%) Keep an eye on Ryan Anderson after Saturday night’s victory over the Atlanta Hawks. Anderson put up a decent line of 16 points on .636 percent shooting, 2 threes, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, o steals, 0 blocks and 0 turnovers. With the Magic under-performing and the wing rotation far from set in stone, head coach Stan Van Gundy could shake up the rotation and minutes with Ryan being a main beneficiary. [MIL WAS @BOS]
Deep League Special
Terrence Williams (SG/SF/PF – 8%) In deep leagues, finding top 100 value off the waiver wire can often be difficult and requires constant vigilance, foresight and some luck. Rookie Terrence Williams has been beginning to show some signs of life recently in New Jersey. On the season, his minutes have generally been trending downward. However, with nothing to play for except ping-pong balls this season, the Nets will increasingly give their young pieces more minutes. Scanning Williams’ game log, you begin to see some evidence of this with T-Will the Thrill getting 15 minutes, 30 minutes and 28 minutes in his last three games. With minutes, comes production so keep an eye on this situation or make a move if you are in a deep league. [DET @TOR @BOS @DET]
Keyon Dooling (PG – 2%) Never underestimate the injury-proneness of New Jersey’s Devin Harris, who is currently sidelined nursing a sore wrist. Harris has a history of taking extended periods of time off with weak injuries so Dooling’s run may be longer than initially expected. Keyon holds decent value for deep leagues with Devin ailing, averaging 9.3 points on .423/1.00 percent shooting, 1.3 threes, 2.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.0 blocks and 2.3 turnovers per game. [DET @TOR @BOS @DET]
Cut List
Mike Bibby (PG – 76%) It is pretty safe to say that Bibby’s best years (in fantasy and real life) are in the rear view mirror. However, many owners are still clinging to past memories instead of current production. Over the past month, Bibby has been outside of the top 200, with pedestrian averages of 24.9 minutes per game, 7.3 points on .396/.727 percent shooting, 1.1 threes, 1.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.0 blocks and 0.9 turnovers. This kind of production does not justify 76 percent ownership so it stands to reason that owners are clinging to name recognition instead. Outside of the deepest of leagues, there are probably better options out on the waiver wire so cut ties with the aging floor general and get some fresh blood. [@OKC LAC CHI @WAS]
Stay the Course
Robin Lopez (PF/C – 40%) Last week, Channing Frye reminded owners that his run isn’t quite over yet. But does that mean Robin Lopez’s run is over then? Not necessarily. With the promise he showed recently, you should give the FroLo experiment a few more games before throwing in the towel on it. Tonight, the Suns play the Houston Rockets, which is a gold-mine for opposing centers. If you can hold on to Robin until the Amare Stoudemire saga plays out, you could be greatly rewarded for your patience as Lopez would be a huge beneficiary of any Stoudemire trade that does not net a big man in return. [@NOR @DEN @SAC]
Buy Low
Brandon Roy (PG/SG – 99%) Brandon Roy has proven to (paradoxically) been both injury-prone and a warrior at the same time. He does not have a body that can routinely take the punishment of an 82 game schedule without breaking down at some point. However, he is one of those guys that would do anything to stay on the court including playing through injuries and ailments to give his team the best chance of winning games. With Roy currently sidelined with a hamstring injury with a murky timeline, you might be able to pry Roy from his owners based upon fear of this injury being more serious than initially expected. With that in mind, you don’t want to pay fair value for Roy in case this happens, making BRoy a solid buy-low candidate. [CHA @UTA SAS LAL]
Sell High
Andrew Bogut (C – 86%) When an injury-prone big man starts posting first round value, it is a warning sign that now might be a good time to sell high for a more consistent and less injury-prone player. Remember that when selling high, you want to take advantage of a player who is performing well above a level you can reasonably expect them to sustain for the remainder of the season. Bogut is a classic example right now. Over the past two weeks, he has posted top ten value averaging 18.9 points on .648/.767 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 10.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 3.1 blocks and 2.8 turnovers per game. It is pretty unreasonable to expect this to continue for the next few months so move him for a first or second round talent if you can get another manager to bite on his unbelievable recent production. [@MIA @ORL @NYK IND]
Mystery Man
Paul Millsap (SF/PF – 80%) It’s pretty much mandatory that you mention Carlos Boozer anytime you mention Paul Millsap these days. Carlos Boozer. Glad we got that out of the way. Anyways, Millsap has been producing more consistently recently and went absolutely bananas with Boozer sidelined with a calf strain. In Carlos’ absence, he put up 32 points on .647/.909 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 14 rebounds, 7 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks and 2 turnovers. Wow. Although Boozer is most likely going to be around for the rest of the season, head coach Jerry Sloan recently commented on the need to get more minutes for Paul. Millsap is this week’s mystery man because it is hard to say whether this is a sell high moment or whether Paul will be able to continue to produce at such a high level. Millsap has proved that he can produce at a high level when he is given the minutes. [DAL POR DEN]
Golden State Warriors fans had to be displeased watching Brandon Jennings take the League by storm right out of the gates this season knowing that their team passed him up to draft another promising young guard. However, they now understand why, as Stephen Curry has been playing at an incredibly high level amidst incredible adversity. Over the past month, Curry had posted first round value while averaging 19.5 points on .484/.879 percent shooting, 2.4 threes, 4.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.6 turnovers. Congratulations if you drafted Curry or snagged him off the wire early on in the season but this kid definitely deserves to be recognized for his outstanding play as of late.
Week 15 Schedules
Four Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DEN, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIL, NJN, NOR, POR, SAC, WAS
Three Games: CHA, CLE, DAL, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHO, SAS, TOR, UTA
Two Games: MIN
Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)
Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 37%) Since being included in last week’s preview post, Rush’s ownership rate has jumped eleven percent, meaning managers are starting to take notice and add him to rosters. If he is still available in any of your competitive leagues, now is your last chance to grab him. Over the past week, Brandon has averaged 14.8 points on .452/.800 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 5.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.4 blocks and 1.6 turnovers in 36.4 minutes per game. His response to being promoted into the starting lineup has been encouraging as evidence by the upward trend with his minutes.
Drew Gooden (PF/C – 26%)
Past six games, 22.4 minutes per game, 11.4 points on .548/.833 percent shooting, 0.2 threes, 7.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers.
Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 20%) Since Devin Brown departed for the Windy City, Thornton has been on an offensive tear as the Hornets’ starting shooting guard. In the three games since, he has averaged 19.0 points on .556/.889 percent shooting, 3.0 threes, 2.7 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Most importantly for New Orleans, two of these three games were wins so Marcus should be locked into the starting lineup for the foreseeable future. The rookie’s value comes from threes, points, field goal percentage, turnovers and free throw percentage so snag him if you need a scoring guard off of the waiver wire.
George Hill
Watch List
Nicolas Batum
Arron Afflalo
Rasual Butler
Cut List
Matt Barnes
Deep League Special
Keyon Dooling (
Stay the Course
Robin Lopez
Buy Low
Brandon Roy
Sell High
Andrew Bogut
Mystery Man
Paul Millsap
January 31st, 2010 at 9:09 pm
Great preview as always Phil
Good call re Dice – I was thinking about him as well. Looking at his game log for last year, he really only got going in February & kept it up until April. I’ve seen comments from people saying that he looks faster & more agile now than earlier in the season, so perhaps he’s rounding into form.
Late mail for the watch list perhaps … Jonas Jerebko’s back as a starter, but this time at PF (which should mean more rebounds & less time defending against the LeBrons). He was added to spark the offense, which means he’ll see the ball, and CV’s out with back spasms.
January 31st, 2010 at 9:14 pm
Ryan Hollins is another watch list candidate, though not much use this week (Minny have only two games). Starting at C for the 2nd game in a row, as I write he has 14 points on 5-6 shooting, 4-6 at the FT line at half time. That’s after he scored 19 against the clippers. Not much in the way of rebounds or blocks yet, but he’s 7 foot tall – you’d think they’d come with the increased playing time.
January 31st, 2010 at 9:43 pm
… though Hollins did start earlier in the season with mixed results. I’d like to see how he goes against a decent defensive C.
January 31st, 2010 at 9:45 pm
Sorry to spam, but I read a comment by Dragic that said he was exhausted towards the end of his 31 minute game vs Utah, as he wasn’t used to playing long minutes. I’d say that explains why his PT’s been scaled back & its definitely something potential owners should be aware of.
February 1st, 2010 at 12:00 am
MUST ADD ALERT: Darren Collison
Just been released that Chris Paul is set to have surgery on his knee: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ys-paulsurgery013110&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
February 1st, 2010 at 12:38 am
No worries, Andrew. Glad you enjoy the preview pieces. And your comments definitely aren’t spam, more like news reports from the front lines. We definitely appreciate the heads up. We can’t read/watch everything. The credit for Dice definitely goes to RedHopeful; he brought AMcD’s recent play to my attention. Jerebko had another solid outing today — good call. Hollins is definitely someone to keep on eye on this week and the two game week is a good reason not to pick him up this week. Also, another game with a weak line for Goran. I’ve moved on at this point opting for George Hill/Darren Collison or other hot pickups instead.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:52 am
Oleh, clutch red alert. Your tip off netted me DC in my money league. You are the man!
February 1st, 2010 at 9:52 pm
Foye seems to have totally lost it. His scoring’s stopped, he’s not even looking to score, just distribute which he isn’t that good at, and he’s losing PT to Boykins again. I thought Miller’s return would have freed Foye from having to be the playmaker & let him pour on the points, but its had the opposite effect :\
February 2nd, 2010 at 8:45 pm
I just offered Bogut and Foye for Gerald Wallace, and it got accepted.. Did I win the trade? I’m also looking to pick up Brandon Rush, or Batum with my empty spot.. What do you guys think?
February 2nd, 2010 at 9:39 pm
Gerald Wallace, 8th in cumulative value and 7th in per game value this season. IMO, no way Bogut keeps posting first round-ish value for rest of season. As Andrew pointed out, Foye is coming back to earth a bit. I think you got a great deal.
February 2nd, 2010 at 10:45 pm
What Phil said – John you did well. Rush is delivering steady but unspectacular stats right now, and his shooting woes seem to be behind him. I hope.
Batum looks like an amazing talent, but he’s not starting and Outlaw’s going to be back soon. When Roy returns, that leaves 10 minutes between Rudy and Batum at SG, and the 48 SF minutes split between Rudy, Batum and Webster. Webster will play a little PF behind Aldridge as will Outlaw. Unless Portland trades one or more of their wings for a big, its hard to see any of the above players getting fantasy-worthy minutes on a consistent basis.
February 2nd, 2010 at 11:15 pm
So much for my Jerebko tip. He played badly, got into foul trouble & was benched most of the game. This may be a learning experience & he’ll come back strong next game, but … meh, he’s a rookie.
February 2nd, 2010 at 11:24 pm
Mind if I ask for trade advice? I’m struggling for treys & assists, need a PG, and Okafor’s poor games & FT% is killing me. I also hold Gay & am worried about the long minutes he’s playing and the slow decline I’m seeing in his stats. I want to pickup Dice while he’s still available. So …
Would Okafor + Gay for Brooks (plus Dice from WW) be a decent trade? I’m narrowly leading the comp, with the trade partner being 2nd last & needing depth. Oh, and both Dice & Brooks have a 4 4 6 finals schedule.
February 3rd, 2010 at 1:07 am
Andrew, are you from Michigan? You seem to follow the Pistons, which you would only do if you are a) from Michigan or b) are a masochist. No other explanation this season.
I think you’d be giving up too much for Brooks. Roto or H2H?
February 3rd, 2010 at 1:35 am
H2H. FWIW the trade works on basketballmonster.com… I actually ripped this guy off earlier in the season – got him to trade me Boozer for Jeff Green & Drew Gooden, so I owe him a generous trade. Yeah its good to win, but not at the cost of turning friends into enemies who’ll never trade with you again
BTW Mek’s really hurting me. Whenever I’m losing by a few rebounds, he puts in a 2 reb game. Whenever I’m close in FT% he bricks from the charity line. Ugh.
I’m Australian actually, and I try to follow what happens on pretty much every team, especially rebuilding ones with a fluctuating start lineup. Just so fascinating trying to follow what’s happening & why, and predict which players will come out on top.
February 4th, 2010 at 8:15 pm
AJ Price starting for Pacers next two games. Earl Watson’s not playing due to private matters or something. I’m sure its nothing to do with Watson’s recent criticism of JOB’s “push push push” coaching
February 5th, 2010 at 1:41 am
(Mike Wells twitter being the source for the above btw)
February 5th, 2010 at 1:33 pm
I’m actually more intrigued by what TJ Ford does. Will he show JOB that he deserves to be in the rotation? Will his play inspire some team to trade for him?
February 5th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
Ford did OK. Hard to tell really given the opposing team & the fact that it was a blowout. I like how Rush is coming on though.
Bogus goes down with a migraine and Ersan explodes! I wonder if this will result in a return to the starting lineup? He doesn’t really seem to play that well alongside Bogut though.
February 7th, 2010 at 4:04 am
Jonas with a nice bounce-back game, and Tolliver’s been signed for the rest of the season & put up a double-double today. Hmmm.
February 7th, 2010 at 8:04 pm
On top of Odom’s huge game yesterday (and Bynum’s hip injury about which I can’t find any news), Phil Jackson’s commented on his players getting worn down. Add in Kobe’s multiple nagging injuries and Pau’s indifferent form, and in the short term at least it looks like Odom might be getting a lot more PT. Perhaps he’s worthwhile considering as a trade target? Or OTOH, if he gets a couple more starts while Bynum rests & puts in more good games, he could be a sell high prospect.
I’m quite pleased with McDyess (who I’m holding on the bench). He’s playing good defence for the Spurs, which should keep him starting ahead of Blair, and pulling down 10 rebounds in two straight games is another signal he’s rounding into form.
February 8th, 2010 at 12:20 am
With Odom, I am probably leaning towards a sell high. I only own him in one league and I am not looking to increase my Odom holdings, as he has been unbelievably frustrating to own.
Dice has been definitely looking like he has turned the corner. Props again to Oleh for picking up on that one early.