Preview: Week 14
Before we get to the good stuff, I just wanted to mention that we’ve experienced some trouble on the website as hackers thought we were an enviable target. We have to assume they were unhappy with Plonden’s advice, but regardless, we lost Deebo’s post/comments and I’ve had to redo this week’s preview (that’s why it was late). Regardless, lesson to be learned – BACK UP everything you do somewhere!
Okay, enough about the weasels as we’re here to talk about basketball! First off, we’ve got games galore as most teams are playing 4 games this week. Second, we’ve got tons of player issues that still need to be resolved. The following players have all recently missed a game and if they miss anymore, look for the guys in parentheses to be useful in the short interim: Joakim Noah (Brad Miller, Taj Gibson), David West (Darius Songaila), Delonte West (Daniel Gibson). Also, supposedly we’ll discover the fate of Gilbert Arenas for the rest of the season while JR Smith is having problems in Denver (at least he’s slated to play tonight!)
Week Fourteen Schedules
Four Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DEN, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIN, NOH, NYK, ORL, PHI, PHO, POR, SAS
Three Games: CHI, DAL, DET, MIL, NJN, OKL, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS
Two Games: NONE
ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)
Carlos Delfino (34%) – Not sure why owners have been so slow to flock to this cash cow as Ziguana has him ranked 5th overall the last 10 days. I guess averages of 18.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 3.6 3ptm and 2.0 steals aren’t worth a spot on your roster. Granted, in no way do I think he’ll sustain these averages the rest of the year, but it appears he’s emerged as one of Skile’s favorites. In addition, with Michael Redd done for the year and Ersan Ilyasova continuing to struggle, the Bucks will keep giving him plenty of opportunity to contribute.
George Hill (9%) – This dynamic young guy has started the last 3 games and it looks like he may stick. Coach Popovich has lately been dropping praises his way so it’s obvious he’s moved ahead of Keith Bogans and Roger Mason on the depth chart. Also, don’t forget Tony Parker has been struggling with the everyone-seems-to-be-getting-it plantar fasciitis. In the meantime, there is a good chance he’ll continue to put up solid points and 3ptm on strong shooting percentages to go along with useful rebounds, assists and steals.
Brandon Rush (27%) – Funny thing has happened in Indiana. With the return of Danny Granger, it appears Mr. Rush has decided to finally cash in on some of his preseason sleeper status. We know he’s already been good for the surprising rebounds and defensive numbers on occasion to go with little TO’s, but, now he’s found his shooting touch. Over five of the last six games (discounting one game due to 5 fouls limiting him to under 15 minutes), he’s averaged 14.4 points (on 65.8 FG% and 100 FT%), 2.4 3ptm, 4.6 rebounds and 1 block. Might as well enjoy the ride with him while it lasts.
Marcus Thornton (5%) – He’s certainly been back on everyone’s radar as he’s been averaging 12.4 points (on 48.3 FG% and 92.9 FT%), 1.4 3ptm, 3.4 rebounds, .8 steals and .8 TO’s the last 9 games. However, that production is about to go up as Devin Brown was traded to Chicago today for Aaron Gray. Considering James Posey will likely be kept as a reserve and Morris Peterson is irrelevant, Thornton will see a nice spike in his minutes (last 9 games – 22.3 min) to probably something in the neighborhood of 30 a game – probably enough to be pickup worthy in standard leagues.
Anthony Tolliver (3%) – What? I’m advocating a guy fresh out of the D-League? You betcha! The Warriors currently field around 8 healthy bodies and that includes 3 D-Leaguers’. However, one of them has enough game to help you in fantasy leagues. World meet Mr. Tolliver. He’s supposedly the most NBA-ready Development League Player, and, thus far, he’s shown it in his limited stint as a member of the fantasy friendly Golden State Warriors. In watching Saturday’s GSW-PHO matchup, he easily bested his opponent – Amare Stoudemire. Another fantastic sign – Don Nelson loves this kid. With Vladimir Radmanovic still out and GSW lacking any kind of true power forward, it seems highly likely the Warriors are going to sign him for the rest of the season and, in the short term, he’ll help out any fantasy owner with multi-cat awards of points, threes, rebounds to go along with solid %’s and decent defensive numbers.
CUT LIST (No need to shed a tear)
Ronnie Brewer (60%) – Ronnie deserves mention here because his role seems to be getting reduced by the day. His minutes have decreased with each passing month: November (37.12) to December (31.41) to January (26.41). With Kyle Korver, CJ Miles, Wesley Matthews and Andrei Kirilenko all healthy, they’ll continue to steal more minutes as Brewer remains a bigger than usual offensive liability. In addition, it appears the Memphis Grizzlies are very interested in trading for him whereby he’d be relegated to the bench.
WATCH LIST (Deep Leagues pounce, but standard leagues first weigh the options)
Arron Afflalo (6%) – He’s worth a look now as J.R. Smith has been in a massive slump of late where this past Saturday it came to a head as he played a season low 12 minutes. It was reported he walked off the court and Denver contemplated suspending him. However, news was just released that danger was avoided, but he’s not out of the woods yet. If he continues to play poorly, George Karl will have no choice but go with Afflalo who has easily had his best month as a member of the Nuggets: 11.8 points (on 52.2 FG% and 81.3 FT%), 2.1 3ptm, 2.9 rebounds, .9 steals and 1.4 TO’s.
Rudy Fernandez (22%) – Seems a perfect storm is brewing in Portland, whereby Rudy could come out a short-term winner. Brandon Roy is in the midst of missing at least 4 games, Jerryd Bayless is dealing with a recently injured ankle and Steve Blake has strong potential to vanish most games. If Rudy happens to snap out of his shooting funk, he could put up fantastic points, 3ptm and steals with decent rebounds and assists.
Goran Dragic (2%) – Leandro Barbosa underwent surgery to have his troublesome cyst removed so he’ll be out at least a month. Jason Richardson hasn’t been firing on all cylinders meanwhile Steve Nash has mentioned feeling arthritic. Combine all this with Dragic’s surprising effective play of late and we’ve got a potential fantasy commodity on our hands as he’s bound to get a sizable boost in minutes going forward. Check out his 36 minute averages this year: 16.3 points (on 46 FG%), 1.8 3ptm, 4.4 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.6 steals. Me likey.
Marreese Speights (14%) – No, pre-injury Marreese hasn’t shown up yet, but there is still hope going forward. First, his minutes have been trending upward and he recently put up 14 points with 3 steals and 3 blocks in only 25 minutes of play. Second, he is the Sixers main back up to Elton Brand (injury risk) and Samuel Dalembert (foul prone/trade risk). Concievably at any time, the floodgates could open so it might make sense to pack away this fantasy force. In the meantime, he should at least put up serviceable numbers.
STAY THE COURSE (Don’t jump ship just yet)
Channing Frye (73%) – Recently, Alvin Gentry inserted Robin Lopez into the starting lineup thereby demoting Channing to the bench. As a reserve in 4 games, he’s only averaged about 17.5 minutes, scary indeed. However, I wouldn’t suggest punting Frye to the curb – especially if he fits your fantasy team’s needs. Robin Lopez is bound to struggle at times while Frye will emerge out of his January funk (37.9 FG%) to where at worst it’ll be an effective timeshare between the two big men.
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIAL (Name(s) that could be flying under the radar in your deep league)
Jerry Stackhouse (2%) – If he’s still available in your larger than standard league, I’d advise you to pick him up. First, it appears he still has game as evidenced in his first 3 appearances. Second, Skiles has increased his minutes every time out with a high of 28 their last game. Third, there isn’t much resistance on the roster as his main competition are guys like Charlie Bell and rookie Jodie Meeks.
BUY LOW
Jason Thompson (81%) – Simply put, he isn’t as bad as the January splits would lead you to believe. His main issue has been too many personal fouls; consequently, his erratic playing time has put him into a shooting slump. The Kings have shown a much higher tolerance to his growing pains rather than Spencer Hawes so they will stick by the young fellas’ side. As long as you don’t mind his questionable FT shooting, he is currently an excellent buy low candidate as I fully expect him to get back in the saddle.
SELL HIGH
Corey Maggette (85%) – This one is fairly obvious, but I feel too many owners have become TOO enamored with his recent astounding play. Sure over the last month per game averages, Yahoo has him ranked 5th. That’s what 27.9 points (on 58.2 FG% and 90.6 FT%), 6.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists and .8 steals will do for you. However, I think there isn’t a good chance of it continuing for most of the rest of the season. First, Maggette has steadily missed a decent chunk of games every year due to injury. Even Don Nelson has mentioned he’d rather keep him to around 30 minutes a game. Second, the Warriors will get healthier consequently his minutes and thus his usage (like shot attempts) will invariably go down. Go ahead and see if you can swing him for a top player before the window closes ala Brandon Jennings style.
MYSTERY MAN
Chris Duhon (53%) – I’m not even sure if Chris Duhon knows what to expect anymore. We’ve seen the highs and low from him last year, but it hasn’t been anything like this season. In October and November, he never even came close to sniffing a 30FG%. Then in December we saw it jump to 43.2% and basketballmonster.com had him ranked 64th in per game stats. Flip the calender and in January he’s back to another mendoza number – 30.8%. My feeling is that the Knicks continue to keep him in the starting role simply because they have no one else suitable to run the offense to D’Antoni’s liking. They continue to support him hoping that his confidence magically reappears. However, my gut feeling is the longer the paltry play continues the more likely Donnie Walsh brings in anybody to finish the season. If you’re in a roto league, you can chance him on the bench. However, in H2H, I’d assume you can find a better option so make the move.
January 25th, 2010 at 10:48 pm
Props to Red for writing the same post twice. And again, sorry about the delay, fellas. Like Oleh mentioned, extenuating circumstances this week.
I fully endorse adding Dragic right now by the way. He is looking good so far against the Jazz tonight.
January 26th, 2010 at 1:19 am
Didn’t you have a post with Marc Gasol in it? I didn’t read it but I saw it when I glanced at your page before you got hacked.
I just assumed it was an article about how some big man is stealing boards from ZBo preventing nightly 20/20 games.
January 26th, 2010 at 6:54 am
Looking good was perhaps an understatement Phil
He’d have done even better if Gentry had started him in the 3rd, and if Nash hadn’t started hogging the ball – Dragic had only 5 shots in the 2nd half.
I’d like to add him, but would have to drop Nate to do so. Decisions decisions.
Congrats putting Tolliver on the list Red
He looks a lot more promising to me than RoLo, who reminds me of Hickson earlier in the season (being fed easy points & it wasn’t going to last).
Amare may be a sell high now. If I owned him I’d be shopping him like crazy. Chances are he’ll be traded, and if he is he won’t have Nash feeding him easy buckets anymore. Could Brook Lopez be another? What’s the possibility he’ll at some point stop putting the effort in or may be get closed down for the year rather than risking a pointless injury?
January 26th, 2010 at 11:26 am
Completely agree about Amare that he’s got a good chance to be moved. In watching them lose yet another double digit lead last night, he was easily bested by Carlos Boozer. At this point, I’d almost rather see PHX go with RoLo and Frye since they’d have a solid paint defender/rebounder with a guy who can stretch the floor to the 3 point line.
I fell in love with Tolliver watching him on Saturday. His hustle was ridiculous and he completely plays under control (very rare considering lack of NBA experience). If his 3 point shooting becomes a little more proficient, Don Nelson will want to bear his children.
January 26th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
@John-o: Yeah, you were not hallucinating. We had a post about Marc Gasol and Carl Landry and the Most Improved Player race written by Deebo but it was lost during the hacker ordeal. Oh well.
January 26th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
drop nate rob for delfino? i’ve got a couple guys i hate owning…
January 26th, 2010 at 4:30 pm
@TY – probably yes. Delfino is safer as his role is solid even though he doesn’t have Nate’s explosive abilities. Also, N8 is very dependent on Duhon and D’Antoni’s whims. Considering DuDu went through a terrible spell early in the season but never lost his job to N8, I don’t think it’ll happen now. Expect the roller coaster of production to continue as Duhon either snaps back to life or the Knicks look elsewhere (Douglas/trade for PG).
January 26th, 2010 at 9:52 pm
Anyone got advice what to do with Bayless?
How long can I expect to see anything out of him? Not sure whether to hold him, my waiver wire picks are getting low.
January 26th, 2010 at 11:14 pm
@Egon, the wing depth is getting very crowded at Portland. Once Roy’s back, expect Bayless to get far less playing time.
January 27th, 2010 at 8:48 am
ended up dropping naterob for m. thornton, delfino was already snagged up like 3 days ago and i didn’t know that at the time… nate robinson is great when he’s playing and on, when he’s not he scores 0-4 pts and it just ticks you off…
January 27th, 2010 at 11:06 am
Good call on Frye as a stay the course player, Red. He had another solid outing last night against the Bobcats.
Egon, knowing how dire your move situation is, I would recommend keeping Bayless for a while. There is some speculation that BRoy is hurt worse than was initially let on and he is slated to miss at least the next few games. There is also always the possibility the Blazers make a move before the deadline, possibly shedding guard depth for a big man. Doubtful, as Portland tends to be more active around the draft, but possible.
January 27th, 2010 at 11:06 am
@TY: Nice move. Thornton looks locked in for the remainder of the season.
January 27th, 2010 at 12:59 pm
@egon – what do you mean your waiver wire picks are getting low? Do you have a set amount of moves you can make in a season or are you just referring to the quality of free agents left?
As plonden, mentioned riding Bayless until Roy gets back isn’t the worst thing. Pretty sure he’s getting the start tonight (last game his ankle limited him to 13 minutes).
January 27th, 2010 at 2:19 pm
Dr. Egon is in my money league. He has used 20 of 30 moves for the season so his situation is getting dire.
January 27th, 2010 at 9:33 pm
Yeah, the trophy may be passed this year… Hey at least I’m beating Mike though!
January 28th, 2010 at 12:25 am
Well that was brutal. Tolliver’s out of the Warrior’s lineup, and out of my team too
January 28th, 2010 at 2:09 am
… but CJ Watson’s back @ SF and putting up good numbers. Whenever he’s put some good games together in the past though its inevitably been followed by some quiet outings and then an injury.
Nico Batum looked really good tonight too. Like the Kings, they’ve got too many wings!
January 28th, 2010 at 11:31 am
I’m not giving up on Tolliver yet in deeper leagues. Nellie obviously tried to beat NO by going small ball and he failed. It was sad to see them outrebounded by 15 by a team well below average in nabbing the boards!
Also, Vlad looked pretty helpless and hopeless and even admitted his Achilles will probably bother him the rest of the year.
Batum did look good and was the only good thing to happen for Portland in yesterday’s first half. I can easily envision him taking over for Webster at SF at some point since he’s just a better all around player.
The big happening yesterday had to be Tony Parker’s ankle injury (looked to be pretty bad). If George Hill is still around, GET HIM.
January 29th, 2010 at 12:47 am
For some reason Dragic’s not getting much time on court. In the first half today he was exclusively the backup PG, playing a very productive 7 minutes while JRich & Nash slogged out 16. Happened in their previous game too. He appears to be bursting with fantasy potential, but its not much use if Gentry won’t play him.
January 29th, 2010 at 2:00 am
Same pattern in the 2nd half, despite Dragic leading a rally that erased the Mav’s lead. Its not like he couldn’t guard Terry @ SG either. 15 minutes won’t cut it, no matter how well he plays. If Gentry keeps playing him this way, despite his recent breakout games, his only value will be as insurance in case Nash gets hurt.
January 29th, 2010 at 2:32 am
Agreed Andrew. I thought Gentry did a wonderful job with substitutions INCLUDING keeping Amare on the bench the entire 4th, but not playing Dragic was a total head-scratcher. He was on fire, playing with a ton of emotion and would have matched up well with Dallas going small.
January 30th, 2010 at 5:03 am
I’ve seen it strongly rumoured that Iggy’s available for expirings provided Dalembert accompanies him on the trade.
If it does happen, Young and Speights suddenly jump in value & could be worth picking up (if available – both are in my league). Any thoughts on this, whether its likely to happen and which of the above would become a starter in Jordan’s system?
Also today’s Kings game shows how clearly they need a good starting SF. With Garcia perhaps only a week away now, there’s a chance he could slot straight in like KMart did…
January 31st, 2010 at 12:34 pm
Ignore what I said about Garcia. Doesn’t look like he’ll be back any time soon, if at all this season.
Another one to watch is Blatche. He’s played well in his last couple of games, and the probability of Haywood being traded for expirings & picks has got to be reasonably high.