Preview: Week 12
Week 11 was dominated by the Gilbert Arenas saga finally coming to a head, leaving owners with tough decisions to make about whether to hold or fold their Agent Zero hand. More on that dilemma and the fantasy fallout below. Beyond that, we saw Danny Granger and Troy Murphy return to the starting lineup for the Pacers, altering the fantasy landscape in Indy for the thousandth time this season. Along with the Golden State Warriors, the Pacers have been one of the most unpredictable fantasy teams so far this season.
Season Tracker
The 2009-10 season is 44 percent complete.
Week 12 Schedules
Four Games: DET, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, NOR, NYK, OKC, PHX, SAS, UTA, WAS
Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, ORL, PHI, SAC, TOR
Two Games: NJN, POR
Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)
Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 38%) For some inexplicable reason, Hinrich is still under the 40% ownership threshold despite being moved into the starting unit recently. In his eight starts this season, Hinrich averaged 12.1 points on .412/.769 percent shooting, 2.1 threes, 4.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Another key statistic to look at with Captain Kirk is his three point percentage, as the Bulls are desperate for outside shooting. As a reserve, he has shot a pedestrian .322 percent from downtown. As a starter, he has shot an impressive .459 from long range. Hinrich deserves pretty much universal roster consideration.
Erick Dampier (C – 37%) For the entire season, Dampier is putting up top-100 value while providing decent production for a third or fourth string center. His season averages are 8.0 points on .667/.582 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 turnovers. Dampier is a four category specialist (FG%, REB, BLK, TOs) while being a negative in the remaining five categories. He finally appears to be getting healthy again after having to deal with “wear-and-tear” of the left knee. Give Damp a go if you are looking for traditional big man stats and can handle his low scoring.
Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 27%) There has been widespread speculation that Gomes would be moved into Minnesota’s starting five sometime relatively soon. Regardless of whether or not he is starting, Ryan should get enough burn to provide fantasy value, especially for those looking for decent scoring off the waiver wire. Over the past two games, Gomes has averaged 15.0 points on .458/.875 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Gomes, while normally primarily simply a scorer, has shown flashes of stat-stuffing. Add Ryan if you have a dropable player to see if he can improve upon his recent strong play.
Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 21%) Some players just don’t get much respect, whether it be in real life or in fantasy basketball. Apparently, Rasual Butler is one of those players as his actual value and ownership percentage are definitely out of whack. Over the past two weeks, a period that saw Butler play in six games and average over 34 minutes per game, he posted top-50 value. During that period Rasual averaged 12.8 points on .467/.857 percent shooting, 2.5 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. Butler is a nice glue guy, providing a nice boost in threes on low turnovers while also providing decent blocks for a guard-eligible player.
Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 21%) Another player that has had a nice run over the past two weeks is Matt Barnes. You may recall Barnes being featured in last week’s preview article by my distinguished colleague, RedHopeful. Pretty much everything Oleh said then still stands. Over the past two weeks, Matt has averaged 13.4 points on .600/.778 percent shooting,1.1 threes, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.4 turnovers.
Rafer Alston (PG – 18%) Alston has to feel like the luckiest player in the NBA right now; it is an absolute certainty. Rafer was waived by the league’s worst team, the 3-33 New Jersey Nets, and signed with the 18-16 Miami Heat, who are currently the fifth best team in the East. In his first game in a Heat uniform (this season), he immediatley leap-frogged both Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers and joined the starting unit. Skip is in line for big minutes for the Heat and should be a good choice for threes, assists and steals if you can handle his offensive field goal percentage.
Ronny Turiaf (PF/C – 6%) It’s always a gamble recommending any Golden State Warrior these days but Turiaf feels like a very strong player for a couple of reasons. First, Anthony “Everyone’s Favorite Sleeper” Randolph recently went down with an ankle injury with no official timetable released yet. However, the injury appears to be relatively serious so we can assume he’ll miss all of this week’s games. Second, fellow big man Andris Biedrins has struggled getting up to speed since returning from his groin injury that sidelined him for most of the season. By default, Turiaf becomes one of the Warriors primary big men in the rotation and he should be an excellent source of blocks off the wire.
Watch List
J.J. Redick (PG/SG – 16%) With Vince Carter out with an injured shoulder, Redick immediately gets upgraded to watch list status. In Carter’s absence, Redick posted a strong line against the Atlanta Hawks dropping 17 points on .583 percent shooting, 3 threes, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. He has even been praised by Coach Stan Van Gundy recently for his play throughout the entire season. In fact, Redick has been really solid over the past four games seeing over 28 minutes per and averaging 16.5 points on .422/.895 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.5 turnovers.
Flip Murray (SG – 5%) If you are looking for cheap scoring off the waiver wire, there may not be a better option out there than Murray. RIght now, Flip is locked-in and playing excellent basketball for the Bobcats. Over the past week, Ronald is ranked well inside of the top fifty players averaging 17.3 points on .550/.933 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.5 turnovers in four games. His percentages are excellent, making his scoring and threes that much more valuable.
A.J. Price (PG/SG – 1%) A.J. officially proved that he belonged in this league after being selected in the second round of this season’s draft. Price set multiple career-highs against the Thunder on Saturday including minutes played, points scored and threes made. In that watershed game, Price posted 23 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 3 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, o blocks and 2 turnovers. With the Pacers going nowhere this season and both Earl Watson and T.J. Ford playing themselves out of the rotation, Price is poised to carve himself a nice niche for the Pacers.
Deep League Special
Donte Greene (SG/SF – 4%) Greene’s window of opportunity is rapidly closing. With Kevin Martin due back sometime relatively soon, Greene will likely take a hit in touches, minutes and production. Thus, Donte should only be viewed as a short-term band-aid in deeper leagues. Over the past two weeks, he has put up top-100 value, making him an extremely valuable pickup in deep formats. In that same span, he averaged11.4 points on .489/1.00 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.0 turnovers.
Keyon Dooling (PG – 2%) At this point in his career, Dooling is a proven commodity, with a decade of experience in the Association. Playing for a relatively young and inconsistent team, he is a veteran presence on and off the court. While he is still rounding into game shape after having offseason hip surgery, Dooling finally showed signs of life recently when he dropped 21 points on the Hornets on Friday. His career per-36 minute stats are 13.3 points on .420/.798 percent shooting, 1.o threes, 2.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.1 turnovers and are a good guide if Dooling were to consistently get big minutes either due to injury of a teammate or simply due to the inconsistent play of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts.
Jon Brockman (SF/PF – 1%) If awesome nicknames were a fantasy category, the Brockness Monster would be a category carrier. But alas, we are left with having to rely on actual production on the basketball court. In that respect, Brockman’s toughness and football-like build have translated to him being an absolute beast on the boards and earning his fresh nickname (12.8 rebounds per-36 minutes). Recently, Brockman even got the starting nod against Denver pushing teammate and general fantasy disappointment Spencer Hawes to the bench. Grab the rebounding monster if you need help on the glass.
Cut List
Larry Hughes (SG/SF – 39%) The Knicks have won three of their last four games. Hughes has seen four consecutive DNP-CDs. Coincidence? I think not. Larry, welcome to Coach Mike D’Antoni’s dog house. Make yourself comfortable; you’re gonna be here a while.
Marreese Speights (PF/C – 20%) It is hard to recommend a player for cutting who posted such nice fantasy value earlier in the season. However, barring a trade involving either Elton Brand or Samuel Dalembert, Speights is most likely going to be without fantasy value. If you want further proof that his run is (for now) over, check out his minute totals for his past four games: 6:22; 9:51; 12:01 and 11:11.
Luther Head (PG/SG – 12%) What a difference a week can make. Last week, he was on our Add List. This week he is on our Cut List. That is Luther Head’s career in a nutshell.
Buy Low
Caron Butler (SG/SF – 98%) With Agent Zero suspended indefinitely, Butler has moved up the food chain a notch in Washington. Butler’s best seasons of fantasy value have come with Arenas on the sidelines so there is hope to believe that he will resume his productive ways of the past (top five in per game value in 2007-08 when Arenas only played 13 games; top 30 in per game in 2008-09 when Arenas only played two games). At this point in the season, Butler has posted only top-75 value so it is a decent bet that he will have a much better second half of the season with Arenas most like done for the year.
Pau Gasol (PF/C – 99%) It may be hard to consider top ten player a buy low but that is exactly the case with Pau. Having missed a decent number of games this season with hamstring injuries on both legs, many owners are getting tired of the Lakers’ kid glove treatment of Gasol. When owners are frustrated or are struggling in the standings, you can often get a good deal for the right player. Throw out a solid second-round talent for Pau and see if the other owner bites. You may end up with one of the best big men in both fantasy and in real life.
Sell High
Samuel Dalembert (C – 64%) The problem with selling high is that nobody wants to do it because owning a hot player is so much fun. It’s why we play fantasy sports. However, with a guy like Sammie, if you can get enough value for him you have to pull the trigger. Over the past two weeks, Dally has been a top five talent. Stop and let that sink in. TOP FIVE. During that span, he has averaged 10.9 points on .667/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. He will never be able to keep this pace up for the rest of the season, especially not with Eddie Jordan waiting in the wings to screw everything up. SD is the qunitessential sell high right now.
Lamar Odom (SF/PF – 89%) With Pau out for at least one more game, your window to move Odom for maximum value is limited. Over the past week, Odom has been positively beastly, putting up a rugged 14.0 points on .548/.700 percent shooting, 0.8 threes, 15.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 turnover. Wow. In that span of four games, Odom has been a top ten player in per game value so throw out some trade offers and see if you can get a bona fide stud in return for Mr. Kardashian.
Mystery Man
Gilbert Arenas (PG – 73%) At only 73 percent ownership, the Great Arenas Exodus of 2010 has begun. Let’s face it, the chances of Gilbert playing again this season are slim. However, it is not so cut and dried as to whether he should be simply kicked to the curb; thus, Agent Zero is this week’s Mystery Man. In standard sized, non-keeper, head-to-head leagues Arenas can probably be safely dropped at this point. In roto leagues, where it is easier to carry dead weight, it probably makes sense to stick it out with Gil for a bit until we have more concrete timelines. In deeper formats, it makes more sense to hang on to Gibert if your team can afford to maintain a dead roster spot. Finally, in keeper and dynasty formats, dropping Arenas is not recommended until we hear exactly how harsh his final punsihment will be. Gilbert’s future with the Wizards and the League is truly a mystery at this point so weigh your options carefully before you decide to part ways with this dynamic guard.
January 10th, 2010 at 11:53 pm
Wooo, another weekly preview – thanks Phil
Along with Mr Mystery Man is, of course, Randy Foye. If Arenas returns, kiss Foye’s blazing stats goodnight. Maybe he should be a sell high candidate, particularly if Price is in free agency.
It’d be a brave man to buy Caron Butler at the moment, unless you had room on your bench for him to sit on until he comes good (if he does). His play this year has basically been brainless and selfish.
Great review as always. I wish I knew more about Barnes’s injury status as that’d make me feel a lot more comfortable about holding him.
January 10th, 2010 at 11:57 pm
Oh, and no mention of the pinball wizard Martell Webster? He’s put together several nice games now, perhaps he could be worth a serious look.
January 11th, 2010 at 1:06 am
Let me quote RedHopeful from the week eight preview: “I’m kind of getting tired about writing about this guy”. My sentiments exactly. Although he certainly deserves roster consideration.
Good point about Foye being a potential sell high but I happen to be in the pessimistic camp in terms of how I view the Arenas saga playing out this season so I might be more inclined to hang on to him.
Thanks for the comments, Andrew.
January 11th, 2010 at 2:59 am
No, thanks for the article – I bet it takes an hour or more to put it together each week, compared to a few minutes (and not much thought) to post a throwaway comment
I’m holding Foye, and am debating on whether to pursue a trade for Gay with him (the guy needs a PG), especially as I can then maybe nab Price.
January 11th, 2010 at 3:01 am
Btw another sell high – Luol Deng. Playing with a broken thumb that’ll take a couple of months to heal properly if it forces him to sit. Its already affecting his shot & his ability to practise.
Been there & done that before with Luolz.
January 11th, 2010 at 4:17 pm
Nicely done Phil.
With Deng possibly ailing, Salmons is a nice buy low, huh? Most owners should be happy to get rid of him. Either Luol shuts it down due to injury or the Bulls fall out of the playoff race and we don’t see him during the ever important H2H playoffs.
Redick is interesting as their is also talk of demoting VC to a 6th man role. I highly doubt this ever happens (Orlando would really have to continue their poor play for an extended time with their big 4).
January 11th, 2010 at 6:41 pm
Michael Redd torn ACL/MCL. Done for season, possibly career. Luke Ridnour now looks like a nice pickup to resume his hot start to the season.
January 11th, 2010 at 6:44 pm
Andrew said: “I bet it takes an hour or more to put it together each week”
Over.
No worries, Andrew. We do this because we enjoy doing it but it is always nice to hear that people enjoy our stuff!
January 11th, 2010 at 6:46 pm
Oh and if you can snag Rudy Gay for Randy Foye, you have my blessing to make the move.
January 11th, 2010 at 7:09 pm
Definitely a shame for Redd. Personally I was lost why he and the doctors had him come back so early. ACL and MCL tears usually required 1 year. What was he doing on the court in preseason?
While Ridnour should see a boost, I expect Skiles to play matchups and go with the hot hand. I expect Bell and even Meeks to get just as much, if not more time at SG.
January 11th, 2010 at 11:43 pm
Hehe, as soon as I put the hard word on Deng he comes through with a big game – just like Barnes last week
January 11th, 2010 at 11:44 pm
Anthony Randolph has an avulsion fracture to go along with 3 torn ligaments in ankle. Most likely he’s out at least 2 months…
January 12th, 2010 at 12:49 pm
Being hit with a dash of insomnia, I thought I’d review the Stay the Course recommendations. Have those players eventually come through, or did they become complete washouts? Let’s see:-
Successes:
Jarret Jack (largely due to Calderon injury)
John Salmons
Ant Randolph (until latest injury)
Stephen Curry
Jury Still Out:
Andris Biedrins, though your patience would have to be wearing thin!
Chris Andersen
CV
Ersan (I don’t like the signs – minutes decreasing & Warrick playing well)
Washouts:
Marreese Speights (now on cut list)
Mario Chalmers (now on cut list)
Boris Diaw
Jared Dudley
Marcus Thornton
DJ Augustin
My feeling is that, for the most part, Stay the Course players are inches away from being cut, and more often than not end up in that category. Perhaps I’m too impatient with non-performers though
January 12th, 2010 at 8:25 pm
Wilcox getting his 2nd consecutive start. Anyone know the reasons behind it & whether it might continue?
January 12th, 2010 at 9:01 pm
Don’t look now, but Diaw’s started well tonight, and his recent key stats (rebounds, assists and FG attempts) have all been on the up. Perhaps he’s finally coming out of his season-long slump?
January 12th, 2010 at 9:44 pm
@Andrew – regarding Wilcox, Coach Kuester is looking for anything that may work to end the Piston’s horrible losing streak. Even when Chris was getting solid minutes in his career, he’s been only borderline worth owning as he only contributes in several categories.
Haha – was going to mention bumping Diaw from that washout list. Chalmers deserves to be there but I’m positive Speights will be worthwhile at some point. Rotation guys like Thornton and Dudley will consistently be up and down unless an injury/trade opens things up ahead of them.
Just a last point about Ersan – it’s been his troublesome fouls that have hurt him more than Hakim. With Redd gone, I fully expect him to have plenty of solid games going forward. Ilyasova is the future, not Warrick.
January 12th, 2010 at 10:55 pm
I had Ersan in my team during his good run earlier in the season, but what I started to see was Skiles pulling him off the court for no apparent reason. The games where Skiles was suspended were even worse, as the assistant coach obviously didn’t like Ersan at all.
Over the last 5 games he’s rarely been in foul trouble yet his PT has decreased markedly. Only 17 minutes, 6 I think in garbage time, vs Phoenix and he had just one foul. The games against the Nets and the Lakers were very similar, so either he’s on the outer or Skiles is cutting his time for “matchups”. Neither’s great for his fantasy potential.
January 13th, 2010 at 6:31 pm
Now I’ve said all that, I fully expect Ersan to play 40 minutes & hit 25 pts, 4 threes and 11 rebounds in his next game
January 14th, 2010 at 1:24 am
Should I drop Nate Robinson for Barnes or Gomes?
January 14th, 2010 at 2:03 am
24 points, 4 threes, but only 5 rebounds. Yeah, Ersan’s a washout :p
January 14th, 2010 at 2:58 am
Here’s a pic of Grizzly Blair smashing the rookie wall tonight:- http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/11/03/article-1082530-025611A7000005DC-977_468×315_popup.jpg
January 14th, 2010 at 10:55 am
@Andrew: You’ll notice we stat-curse ourselves quite a bit. When we put up the Preview posts like this we often pick guys that put up a dud within the next day. It happens — just shake it off, LOL. And nice pic — Grizzly Blair was a straight beast last night. He is going to be a solid play anytime Tim Duncan sits (second of back-to-backs). Problem is it is going to be hard to predict.
@John: I would drop Nate Robinson for Matt Barnes. Barnes has put up top fifty value over the past couple of weeks and had another very strong line last night.
January 14th, 2010 at 11:20 am
I’ve added/dropped Blair too many times now so this better be it. I know last night’s line is more of a mirage but is 12/10 in 22 minutes many a night too much to ask? Come on BEAST!
Another guy I nabbed in my deepest league – Jodie Meeks. When he’s hot, he’s deadly from beyond the arc. Bell is almost always unimpressive and I’m not sure Delfino can be that adept at the 2 either. Worth a look either way.
Poor Blake Griffin. Was really looking forward to just watching the kid play with all that passion. So next year is going to be his rookie season – while it should be good, expectations should be tempered a bit (really just hope he stays healthy all year). Btw, Phil, I fully expect you to pick him up in the Bonanza.
January 14th, 2010 at 11:23 am
Red, I think someone else will swoop him up but I have already put in my waiver request for him.
I might be making a move in the next few days here too so keep a look-out.
January 14th, 2010 at 6:35 pm
Gilbert charged with felony gun possession: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/14/AR2010011403502_2.html?hpid=topnews
Been a busy week so far.
January 16th, 2010 at 1:55 am
I’m not going to talk about Martell Webster. Did you see how many threes he … no, nothing to see here, move along
January 16th, 2010 at 4:55 am
First game with Kevin Martin back – Greene played 2 minutes in garbage time, and Casspi’s shot attempts decline. Hard to say if that’s KMart’s influence or just an off night for the Casspinator, but he certainly seemed to disappear. Then again whole team dropped in intensity and the chemistry wasn’t there with KMart back. Beno saw 25 minutes as the 6th man, not a lot to read into that yet, and Tyreke continued his mini slump.
Garcia is apparently practicing with the team, though still a couple of weeks from playing. Given that Westphal started KMart immediately and benched the rookie Greene, what’s the chances of that happening with Garcia/Casspi as well?
January 17th, 2010 at 6:15 am
Dantoni sat Duhon for most of the second half as he continues his lousy play, and Nate was PG down the stretch & didn’t do too badly as the Knicks surged. Shortly before Nate was infamously benched, Dantoni said he was thinking of starting him at PG. Any chance he might be considering it again?
January 18th, 2010 at 1:33 am
Thanks for the comments, Andrew. I’ve incorporated some of your ideas in the latest preview piece (just published).
Regarding Webster, he finally broke through the 40 percent threshold so now we don’t have to take any heat for not writing about him, LOL. His recent play has been impressive; that’s for sure.
January 19th, 2010 at 5:50 pm
Do you guys think I should hold onto Tyrus Thomas?
and If Robin Lopez starts doing consistently well, should I drop Tyrus Thomas for Robin Lopez?