Preview: Week 11
Did we really have to learn it’s not cool pulling a gun on a teammate in the locker room? I’m looking at you Gilbert Arenas! There are rumors flying around that he’s going to miss serious time as it could be measured in months. Consequently, it’s no surprise this week’s mystery man has to be Randy Foye. He’s been a starter in the past so I’d assume Flip would be encouraged to go with him over any of Washington’s other point guards.
Week Eleven Schedules
Four Games: ATL, CHI, LAL, MEM, MIA, NJN, NOH, ORL, POR, UTA, WAS
Three Games: BOS, CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, MIL, MIN, OKC, PHI, PHO, SAC, SAS, TOR
Two Games: NYK
ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)
Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 16%) – Matt’s stock has recently gone up since he was moved into the starting lineup. Stan Van Gundy has been singing his praises too so expect him to stick in place of Mickael Pietrus. In his 3 recent starts, he’s averaged 16.7 points, 1.7 3ptm, 7 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.3 TO’s. He’ll also contribute the occasional defensive numbers.
Omri Casspi (SG/SF/PF – 33%) – Casper has just been on a tear lately so I’m shocked he’s not more universally owned. In the last 13 games, he’s averaged a very cool 16.2 points, 1.8 3ptm, 5,8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, .6 steals and .4 blocks. With over 32 minutes a game, he’s also been very efficient shooting 48% from the field and 77.4% from the charity stripe with only 1.4 turnovers. I don’t see a return of Kevin Martin ending his value either as Westy is likely to move him over to SF.
Nick Collison (PF/C – 5%) – If you don’t mind anti-glamor types, give Nick a look. Since returning from injury, his minutes have been steadily trending upwards and it appears Scott Brooks is most comfortable with him over both Nenad Krstic and Serge Ibaka. In the last 5 games, he’s averaged 9.4 points (on 70.8 FG% and 68.4 FT%), 7 rebounds and 1 block.
Luther Head (PG/SG – 9%) – Here we go recommending another Pacer again but you gotta figure we’re due to get one right! Actually, there is a good chance he’ll revert back into some sort of inconsistent mess considering his track record, but why not ride him now? He’s easily been the most productive wing player for O’Brien so look for him to continue to get minutes. The last 3 games as a starter he’s averaged 23 points, 2.3 3ptm, 4.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 steals.
Juwan Howard (SF/PF/C – 10%) – Here is what I like to call a “process of elimination” player. Simply put, the Blazers best big man is this 36 year old who was drafted by the Washington Bullets. The last 6 games, Juwan has averaged 9 points (on 57.4 FG%), 7.8 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.8 TO’s. Considering LaMarcus Aldridge is hobbled with an ankle sprain, Howard is well worth a spin during this upcoming 4 game week.
CUT LIST
Mario Chalmers (PG – 49%) – Sadly, it’s about time for owners to let Mario go as one of my favorite preseason targets has been an enormous letdown. Most likely, his fate is about to be sealed as Miami is probably going to guarantee Carlos Arroyo’s contract for the rest of the season. When that happens, Mario’s role as a reserve (6.3 points, .4 3ptm, 1.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists) looks to be close to permanent.
TJ Ford (PG – 43%) – Seems like Ford has finally hit rock bottom as he’s recently been demoted to 3rd string point guard for the lowly Indiana Pacers. What’s worse is he claims in the linked article that he didn’t get an explanation for being removed from the rotation. Uh, TJ, quit playing dumb.
Peja Stojakovic (SG/SF – 67%) – Since Christmas, Peja has fallen off a cliff (averaging under 5 points a game, 1 three, 3 rebounds and 1 assist in 4 games). In addition to the obvious slump, his back has started to act up on him again. Considering, he’s had chronic problems the last few years, don’t hold your breath he’ll be right as rain after a few days of rest.
WATCH LIST
DeJuan Blair (SF/PF/C – 14%) – Blair’s adjustment as a starter hasn’t gone as smoothly as most of us had hoped as his minutes and numbers have been up and down since being handed this juicy role back on December 21. His uninspiring averages of 7.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, .6 steals and .7 blocks over that period have resulted in Theo Ratliff getting the start in Sunday’s game against Toronto. However, it’s hard to throw in the towel on a kid who usually doesn’t need much time to put a fantasy worthy line.
Andray Blatche (PF/C – 33%) – “Seven Day Dray” started the season off with a bang thanks to an Antawn Jamison shoulder injury. However, as expected, he faded back into obscurity when he became a role player again. With the Wizards lackluster play, Flip gave Blatche a start in their last game against the Spurs. Coach is looking for an increase in paint production, but we all know Dray loves to shoot too many jumpers. If he does heed Flip’s wishes, he could be worth owning again.
Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 15%) – Managers looking for an interim boost in scoring should look Rasual’s way. Over the last ten games, he’s averaged 14.5 points, 2.4 3ptm, 3.2 rebounds and 1 block on excellent shooting (48.7 FG% and 91.7 FT%). More importantly, he has replaced Al Thornton as the team’s starting small forward. Just remember to temper your expectations as Butler likes to disappear and Blake Griffin’s return is getting nearer.
Quentin Richardson (SG/SF – 18%) – Q has got to be this season’s Jekyll/Mr. Hyde winner. Case in point, just glance at the boxscore of his last two games. Against the Spurs, 0 points and 3 rebounds. Against the Bobcats, 20 points (6 3ptm) and 5 rebounds. I literally prefer to just watch Qrich, but he could be worth a look for a team either feeling lucky or in dire need of 3ptm.
STAY THE COURSE
Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 50%) – Mr. Lee’s averages have been quite pedestrian thus far this season: 11.5 points, .6 3ptm, 3.7 rebounds and 1.9 assists. Lately, his numbers have shown a bit of a decline which is most likely due to the fact that Yi Jianlian and Chris Douglas-Roberts are back playing big minutes to go alongside Devin Harris and Brook Lopez. Despite this, I still recommend you hang onto him. That perimeter shooting is bound to improve as he’s always been considered an excellent shot. Moreover, he provides a significant amount of steals (1.7) to go along with very low turnvoers (1.1).
Charlie Villanueva (SF/PF – 84%) – Without a doubt, there is cause for alarm as his recent 6 game averages are woeful: 4.7 points, .3 3ptm, 3.5 rebounds and .5 blocks. As the roster is finally getting healthy around him, Kuester’s manlove for Jonas Jerebko and his plantar fasciitis are all attempting to stand in his way of solid production. However, things will turn around as he sat down with the Coach and figured out what he needed to do. The outcome? He played 28 minutes in the Piston’s last game against the Bulls while Jerebko 19.
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS
Glen Davis (PF/C – 4%) – With Kevin Garnett out for a minimum of 10 days, the Celtic’s need Big Baby. Rasheed Wallace isn’t accustomed to playing huge starter’s minutes and Kendrick Perkins usually struggles with foul trouble. Expect at least a few games of solid points, boards and steals in the near future.
Wayne Ellington (PG/SG – 1%) – Are we ready to proclaim it Wayne’s World? No, but his role is undeniably increasing in Minnesota as evidenced by the uptick in his minutes recently. Considering how the team is in need of a solid perimeter threat, Coach Rambis must be excited this rookie is finally putting things together. If you’re in a deep league and would like to bump up the scoring categories, give him a try. He set a new season high of 16 points and 3 3ptm in their last game.
MYSTERY MAN
Randy Foye (PG/SG – 31%) – As I mentioned earlier, Gilbert Arenas supposedly pulled the knucklehead move of the year by playing with a gun in the Wizard’s locker room. Consequently, stiff penalties await and he could leave a mammoth hole for a lengthy period of time. Enter Randy. Even though Flip has shown a preference to Earl Boykins certain games, it is highly unlikely the 5 foot 5 inch guard could handle the starting duties. Meanwhile Randy has played huge minutes at the point in Minnesota providing solid points, 3ptm, assists and steals. Be ready to pounce if any new developments regarding any suspensions crop up.
January 5th, 2010 at 6:10 am
Thanks for the preview!
Hypothetically, if you had Luther Head & Foye was available, would you drop Head & take a chance with Foye or keep Head knowing he’ll sooner or later go bust?
Also, is there any substance behind Webster’s two good games (neither of them televised here)? Is it likely to continue, is it a fluke, or is it just a function of Aldridge’s absence?
January 5th, 2010 at 11:02 am
Stick with Head for right now. It’ll probably take awhile for the whole Arenas debacle to play out so Foye won’t be viable for awhile.
I know last night, Martell stepped it up because Roy tweaked a hammy during the game. Sure missing LMA hurts too as the offense has to come from somewhere. What’s funny is as soon as Martell gets recommended he goes as quiet as a church mouse. Most nights what stops Webster is himself.
January 5th, 2010 at 12:47 pm
I think Red may have mentioned this earlier but Martell probably wins the waiver wire pinball award for this season, as he has bounced around so much based upon his inconsistency. His per game averages mask the inconsistency — something that has always annoyed me about averages. There needs to be some sort of measure of consistency of averages as well. For example, when I am playing roto, I want to know when I plug in a player and use one of my limited games played that he is going to play close to his average. How confident can I be that player X will put up solid numbers? This has always been on my fantasy basketball wish list.
January 5th, 2010 at 3:31 pm
Grand jury most likely going to hear Gilbert’s evidence today so things are moving quicker than expected…
January 5th, 2010 at 7:49 pm
If you needed another reason to cut Chalmers the Heat are going to sign Alston when he clears waivers.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4799178
January 5th, 2010 at 8:24 pm
I’m still sad at the Chalmers thing since he helped me win a championship last year (he was awesome in the steals category).
BTW, what’s your Over-Under for the # of games Gilbert is initially suspended by the league? And then the # after the investigation…
I’m leaning towards 10 games initially and it becoming 20 after the details are released. No way he goes out for the full year… he didn’t shoot the gun (Plaxico) and he didn’t punch a fan during a brawl.
January 6th, 2010 at 6:28 am
Just a thought on the weekly previews – perhaps a couple more categories could be interesting: Sell High and Buy Low.
January 6th, 2010 at 10:45 am
Andrew, thanks for the suggestion. If you look at the early previews, a couple of them actually include Buy Low/Sell Highs. At the time, they were actually pretty well-liked and we got some comments to that effect. Based upon your comment we might resurrect that segment going forward…
Feel free to throw out any other suggestions you have as well.
January 6th, 2010 at 11:09 am
Arenas may have had an unloaded weapon but it doesn’t deter from the main issue. Athletes with weapons acting in an irresponsible manner. As I said on fantasybasketballcafe, he broke a DC statutory law, NBA collective bargaining agreement and it sounds like an assault charge is likely. Regardless of the legal outcome, Stern and sports in general come down hard on felonious behavior. It’s going to be MUCH more than 10 games.
January 6th, 2010 at 12:01 pm
Marshawn Lynch got 3 games after his gun-toting idiocy… (that’d be about 15 NBA games). Chris Henry got 8 NFL games as the result of four separate arrests. Barry Switzer took a gun into an airport and was hit with a monetary fine.
I don’t think Iverson even got 1 game after he surrendered his gun to police after they found it illegally stored in the passenger compartment.
January 6th, 2010 at 6:03 pm
Well, Arenas suspended indefinitely now, with Stern saying he’s not fit to play in the NBA.
January 6th, 2010 at 6:18 pm
What a horrible outcome for Arenas, he finally gets healthy and then squanders his season by acting like an idiot.
January 6th, 2010 at 7:01 pm
Now Gilbert had better hope his contract doesn’t get ripped up. If it does, is this the biggest blunder by an athlete?
January 6th, 2010 at 7:52 pm
Boykins is Flip’s preferred starting PG. Bit of a slap in the face for Foye I’d have thought.
January 6th, 2010 at 8:41 pm
Boykins starting is indeed odd…
Gilbert’s new nickname – “IQ Zero?”
January 6th, 2010 at 11:40 pm
Red … while I think Michael Vick has the consensus #1 – he still has a slight window of opportunity to salvage his career.
So I think the #1 goes to everyone’s favorite Buckeye:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2545204
I guess OJ Simpson doesn’t count since he wasn’t really an athlete when it all went down.
January 7th, 2010 at 5:04 am
Alston or Arroyo, they provide nearly identical stats and abilities as Chamlers(via Basketball Reference and 82games)…while Chamlers is playing on his cheap rookie contract. Alston and Arroyo will lead the Heats to nowhere because we had all seen their celling. Unless Heats come out saying Chamlers won’t develop anymore, paying extra money for the identical players while cutting the develop time of their asset is a stupid thing to do. They are pretending they are doing something so that they can increase their chance to keep Wade, but the reality is adding Alston or Arroyo won’t change the fact that Heats is a .500 team. Either way they are going to make the Playoff and exit after first round and that’s not going to be the factor which gonna change Wade’s mind. Phil, I would love to see you write an article on this matter(or include this example at least). It’s going to be a powerful article(like Abbett’s achieve on Durant’s +/-) if you can throw in stats, money and W-L results. With this great example, it could well be the second impact piece to make the Basketball a sane sport…Looking forward to!
January 7th, 2010 at 5:55 pm
I’d think Skip would make things even worse at Miami, with his penchant for ball hogging & chucking which neither Arroyo or Chalmers are guilty of.
January 8th, 2010 at 9:08 am
Hibbert might be an interesting sell high candidate, though I could be a few days late in mentioning it. He’s shown that he plays really well when Murphy’s injured, but gradually reverts to abject sucktitude when Murph’s stealing all his rebounds.
With Murphy about to return, could be a great time to jettison the Doc…
OTOH, if he does revert to poor play it could be a great time to “buy low” or pick him up from waivers if dropped, as Murphy’s a possible trade target to a contender such as Cleveland.
January 8th, 2010 at 3:16 pm
Will be interesting to see which PG Miami sits. My guess it’ll be Arroyo. Alston wasn’t brought in to keep the seats warm. You also don’t give up on Chalmers yet. Arroyo just makes good sense for security, etc.
Yeah, Andrew, Hibbert has got to be considered a sell high anytime he has a nice stretch of games (as the bout of inconsistency will still rear its ugly head). However, I really think they’re catching onto his importance (as evidenced by the win over Orlando). Still say it’s more than 50/50 Murphy gets moved. They want to cut payroll being a non-playoff team and he’s their easiest big asset to move.
January 8th, 2010 at 5:26 pm
I’m a happy man! Danny Granger is back tonight (and so is Troy Murphy). Pacers starting lineup of Watson, Head, Granger, Murphy and Hibbert. Will be very interesting (and hopefully not too painful) being a Head/Hibbert owner or fan.
January 8th, 2010 at 6:08 pm
Thanks for the heads up, Oleh. Swapped Murphy for Barnes in one starting lineup.
January 8th, 2010 at 8:00 pm
Barnes looks like he has some real injury problems – separated ligaments in his hands or something – that he’s trying to play through.
Btw, Foye & Miller starting for the Wizards today.
January 9th, 2010 at 12:59 am
^ Thanks for the heads up, Andrew. That observation might push Barnes to the old Cut List this week.
January 9th, 2010 at 1:40 am
Heh, what’ll happen to all these helpful posts when we’re fighting hammer & tongs in the FFA league next year
January 9th, 2010 at 4:08 am
Today we got to see just what Dorell Wright can do in the starting lineup – at SG while Wade played PG. Pity it was only an experiment until Skip joins the team.
January 9th, 2010 at 8:07 am
I didn’t realise Rafer started at PG – thanks Yahoo for stuffing up the box score! Wright still played well though.
Come on QRich, retire or break a leg!
January 9th, 2010 at 5:35 pm
@Andrew – Those helpful posts will be around. However, that info will probably be old news by the time your eyes read it.
January 9th, 2010 at 7:00 pm
Haha, yeah before I write anything about any player I make any roster adjustments first. Sorry, fellas!
It reminds me of a comment someone posted at the Fantasy Basketball Cafe. Someone was explaining how they identify potential sleepers. They responded with: “I just pick up whoever RedHopeful adds.”
January 9th, 2010 at 8:09 pm
Barnes’s injury can’t be that serious or he wouldn’t be playing, let alone starting, but his production’s really dropped off. He’s also gone back to an even time share with Peaches, which pretty much kills his fantasy value.
January 9th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
Hehe, and of course having said all that Barnes puts in a good game
January 10th, 2010 at 12:05 am
Seems like Luther Head’s reign never really got off the ground. It’s apparent that Rush (for defense) and Dunleavy (for offense) will keep his minutes limited. Wouldn’t be surprised if O’Brien makes a change with the starting lineup.
BTW, AJ Price is worth a look. Dedicated fans have been clamoring for him to get a chance and he had a nice breakout game tonight.
January 10th, 2010 at 4:13 am
If AJ starts he looks very promising, but first he has to beat out Earl Watson.
Luther was needed for his offense with Granger & Murphy out, but there doesn’t seem much point him starting any longer and it looks like his minutes will drop substantially. Pity – I was riding the Luther wave this week only to see it brought to a premature end.
Hibbert’s once again started his slide now that Murphy’s back. A few more duds & he might soon be hitting the waiver wire
January 10th, 2010 at 5:34 am
It’s good to see AJ Price has his quick first step back… those knee issues he had at UConn actually slowed him a bit last year. I think it’s amazing that guys like him and Ty Lawson are 190lbs (that’s what they were at the Combine) and are still lightning quick attacking the basket.
Beating Earl Watson for a starting PG job is basically a sure thing. Sort of like Eddy Curry eating that last donut. AJ’s decision making is still suspect (ie: jacking the trey when the game was close)… but he was having his way with the OKC defense.
Do you guys remember when Brandon Jennings went on YouTube and was saying how it’d be a joke playing behind Chris Duhon. We know what Earl can (or cannot) do… AJ has some major talent to bring to Indy and it’d be a shame if Earl kept him off the court.
January 10th, 2010 at 5:57 am
Jacking the trey when the game is close – I thought that was JOB’s game plan? All the other Pacers execute it to perfection
I guess beating out a veteran when you’re clearly more talented should be a formality, but Price is a 2nd round rookie after all – lots of coaches wouldn’t dream of handing him the PG reins no matter what he did. I get the impression with JOB that he’d prefer to play a vet, could be wrong though.
January 10th, 2010 at 10:51 pm
[...] has had a nice run over the past two weeks is Matt Barnes. You may recall Barnes being featured in last week’s preview article by my distinguished colleague, RedHopeful. Pretty much everything Oleh said then still stands. Over [...]