Preview: Week 10
Plonden gets two thumbs up for being able to peer into the future. No, not for making any solid picks, but rather realizing we could use another writer or two around here. Haha! Honestly, we both happened to be without solid computer access for most of the week – hey it’s the holidays, right? For this, we apologize but we vow to get back to posting multiple articles every week.
Ok, on to the good stuff! Hopefully, some of you were able to nab Leandro Barbosa, Yi Jianlian, Jameer Nelson or Tyrus Thomas returning from injury. If not, keep on reading then as you probably have a need to replace some dead wood on your rosters.
Week Ten Schedules
Four Games: CHA, CLE, IND, LAL, MIN, NYK, OKC, PHI, SAC, SAS
Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, MEM, MIA, MIL, NJN, NOH, ORL, PHO, POR, TOR, UTA, WAS
Two Games: DET, LAC
ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)
DeJuan Blair (SF/PF/C – 11%) – Everyone’s favorite preseason rookie is finally getting minutes including a season high of 35 against the Knicks this past Sunday. Apparently not everyone has jumped all over him yet so check your leagues now. His per 36 numbers are fantastic – close to 60 FG%, 14.6 points, 13 rebounds, .9 steals and 1.3 blocks.
James Harden (PG/SG – 38%) – The last 6 games, James is averaging just about 28 minutes a game. Over that time span, he’s averaging 13.2 points, 1 3ptm/steal, 3.7 boards, 2.2 assists and 1.2 TO’s. It appears his role will be consistent going forward so expect these numbers to remain (in case you’re wondering, ziguana has him ranked 87th the last 12 days which includes the dismal 41.7 FG%).
Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 29%) – Soon to be fired Vinnie Del Negro has put Kirk into the starting lineup (not that it really mattered considering he’s been over 30 minutes a game since his return from injury). Over the last 5 games, Kirk has averaged 11 points, 1.6 3ptm, 4.6 boards and 3.8 assists. It’ll be interesting to see what a new coach decides to do, but he’s worth owning at least in the interim as he’s admitted he’s more comfortable in a starting role.
Juwan Howard (SF/PF/C – 10%) – With Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla done for the year, Juwan has been pushed into a prominent role. Most likely, the Blazers will pick up another big man but in the meantime give him a look for solid FG% and good rebounding. Since becoming a starter, he’s put up 8.7 points, 10 boards on 54 FG%.
Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 22%) – Him again?!? Unfortunately yes. First, he’s looking at a four game week so regardless of the subpar play, he should be able to put up useful numbers over the course of the week. Second, both Mike Dunleavy (sufferring from lack of strength in his legs) and Dahntay Jones (return to mediocrity?) have been awful. Look for him to continue to get solid minutes contributing 3’s/steals/blocks with decent boards at his position. Naturally, be aware he’ll most likely hurt your team’s %’s.
CUT LIST
Tyson Chandler (C – 44%) – If Tyson hadn’t given you a reason to kick him to the WW with his substandard play thusfar this season, his latest stress reaction in his foot probably should. Considering he struggled with foot problems the past season and he still hasn’t felt 100% after offseason surgery, there is a good chance it’ll linger well into the rest of this season.
Tracy McGrady (SG/SF – 62%) – It should be obvious the Rockets and Tmac are and will not be on the same page for the rest of the season. The Rockets decided to sit him down for a few games so he left the team to spend time with his family (uh, ok). Prior to this, he wasn’t seeing even 8 minutes a game. Time for everyone the end their love affair with him as it’s completely up in the air when his situation will improve whether through a trade or a Rocket’s injury.
WATCH LIST
Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 30%) – Ryan gets the “watch list” treatment because it’s unsure how significant his production will be going forward. Prior to his really solid stretch just prior to his injury, he was largely an inconsistent mess. Considering the Wolves won 3 of the 6 games he missed (and Damien Wilkins hasn’t been all that bad), I can’t see Rambis thrusting him into any prominent role.
Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 10%) – I know Plonden told you to cut him a week ago, but you’ve at least got to put him back on your radar. The Pacer’s could very well be considered the worst team in the league at the moment as they’ve lost 6 in a row including two embarrassing losses in their last 2 games. Consequently, I could see the Pacers start off loading some of their higher salary players, but none more so than Troy Murphy. No Troy means excellent minutes and production from Tyler (if you can stomach the FG%) – 36 minute per – 17.5 points, 9.6 boards, 1.2 steals with only 1.6 TO’s.
Serge Ibaka (C – 3%) – Allowing a pass in the Thunder’s last game, Serge has been playing admirably well. In a four game stretch, he’s seen a little over 24 minutes a game and averaged 10.5 points, 8.5 boards, 1.2 blks on 62 FG%. I expect his role to remain pretty solid as both Nenad Krstic and Nick Collison lack a lot of ability necessary many a night against NBA competition.
C.J. Miles (SG/SF – 4%) – Yeah I know he’s been horrid his last 2 games (2 for 15 FG’s), but don’t give up hope yet. The Jazz need his production as Wesley Matthews will be more inconsistent going forward while Kyle Korver is still having knee problems. I expect Miles to be a good source of points, 3’s and steals this week as the Jazz face the Wolves, Thunder and Nuggets.
Earl Watson (PG – 6%) – Another complete failure the last 2 games, Earl should be given a chance for at least this upcoming week (as I mentioned the Pacers are looking at a 4 game week). Considering TJ Ford has all but been written off by Jim O’Brien, Mr. Watson has a good chance to rebound as the coach relies on a veteran leader to help the Pacers turn about their recent woeful play. Expect solid 3’s, assists and steals out of him against the Bulls, Grizzlies, Wolves and Knicks.
STAY THE COURSE
Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 50%) – Hitting only 4 out of his past 24 field goals, will make you want to drop Ersan faster than a hot potato, but I ask you to reconsider the notion for 3 reasons. One, his opportunity won’t be taken away as the Bucks aren’t going anywhere fast so they’ll stick with their youth. Two, he’s got Hakim Warrick behind him. Three, team leaders Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut are as brittle as they come.
Marreesse Speights (PF/C – 34%) – After a 28/9 performance against the Clippers, Marreesse appears to have gone on hiatus (4.5 points, 4 boards the last 2 games). This might be a nice opportunity for you to jump on him as some owner has lost the faith but you shouldn’t. Besides his fantastic ability, he is too good of a fit under Eddie Jordan so expect a return to strong numbers in the near future.
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS
Nazr Mohammed (C – 4%) – If Nazr is available, nab him in deep leagues. While Tyson Chandler is slated to only miss a week, I expect his foot to hold him back much longer. In the meantime, expect similar production to his last 2 game averages of 14 points, 8.5 boards, 1 steal/board with excellent FG% and TO numbers.
Jeff Pendergraph (SF/PF – 0%) – Until the Blazer’s are able to bring in another big man, Jeff will be relied on to assist Juwan Howard down the low. Scary, I know but he’s worth a look for some extra points, rebounds and defensive numbers all done in an efficient manner (based on summer league production).
MYSTERY MAN
Delonte West (PG/SG – 20%) – In keeping with last week’s new category, is there anyone more worthy of a mention? To start the year, it wasn’t even certain when, if at all, he’d be back on the court. Now that he is racking up more 20+ minute games than DNP’s, the question is will he achieve any consistency to be worth owning in the average fantasy league – especially in the 3 point category (1 made 3 the entire month!!!)? I say yes. As he and his teammates continue to acclimate to one another, his role will likely increase. After all, the Cav’s have won 9 of their last 10 and it can be argued he was their second most valuable player last season. In addition, it’s no surprise confidence is the last thing he needs to achieve (the motorcycle stunt and his wrist injury). However, it’s getting there as both the coach and teammates are noticing.
December 28th, 2009 at 6:47 pm
Hi Red, great to see another update
I grabbed Grizzly Blair, but there’s reason to be cautious as he’s not guaranteed as much PT when Bonner returns in a few weeks. OTOH perhaps he’ll cement his role as the starter, but Pops does love playing veterans.
To continue my tradition of pointing out some other guys you may have missed, Jonas Jerebko is at least worthy of watch list status imho. Even with Prince and RIP back he put in a good performance playing at PF in his last game, and with CV suffering foot problems JJ will continue to get opportunities to produce.
The other player I thought deserves a mention is another JJ – Jarret Jack. He’s playing well as the starter, and though its possible Jose could return soon many people feel he’d be better suited to a 6th man role. With JJ starting the Raptor’s defense is better and Turkoglu’s point forward abilities are finally put to use.
December 28th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
Thanks drew! Good to be back posting something ANYTHING. I really wanted to put Jonas in but his 2 game week really turned me off. I do agree he could be roster worthy in standard leagues with more games as coach looks like he’ll continue to start him at PF.
Probably should have included Jack but for some idiotic reason I expected Calderon to be back. He’s definitely worth riding till Jose reappears.
December 29th, 2009 at 1:02 am
Something else I’ve noticed recently – a decline in Grant Hill’s minutes, and a corresponding increase in Jared Dudley’s. Not having seen any Suns games in the last month, I was wondering if anyone could tell me whether they play the same position, and if its possible Dudley could be gradually taking over from Hill?
December 29th, 2009 at 1:21 am
Also just noticed that CJ Watson started the 2nd half in place of Curry, and is running up some nice stats (6 steals so far).
CJ’s been playing a lot at SF lately, where he’s been very quiet. If he gets big minutes at PG/SG he could quickly be relevant again. Who knows what Nellie’s thinking though?
December 29th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
I don’t think Jared will takeover for Hill. Hill is the Suns firecracker. In the first quarter, he’s usually the guy just taking it strong to the hole. He seems to be using a ton of energy purposefully due to the shorter minutes. In addition, Dudley has been on the floor either in crunch time at Hill’s or Frye’s expense. That bodes well for now, but you’ve gotta think if he hits a slump, his minutes drop.
Btw, how about J. Dudley last night? Besides the 3’s, noticed him take it strong to the hole a few times and nab 7 boards.
CJ is definitely a tossup – as you said drew – who knows what Nellie’s brain is processing. He’s definitely a deeper league kind of guy but I think he’s iffy for std leagues. With Biedrins/Turiaf back, AR did see minutes at the 4 while Mag’s at the 3 in last night’s game. Considering Ellis hardly sits, Nellie still likes to give time to Curry/Morrow. This tells me Nellie does play matchups or at the very least likes to change it up for the opponent.
December 29th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
What the – Blair has way too many knicknames. The insanity has to stop already!!
He was called “Big Fella” (or just Fella) at Pittsburgh
During Summery Camp they called him Frigidaire-Blair and Blair Force One (BFO)
Then you’ve got McDyess calling him “DeBeast” (Coach Pop also called him The Beast earlier this season).
And now you call him Grizzly Blair? AAahhhh!!
By the way, Dudley is getting the minutes because of his defense. Hill is 37 years old and his ability to really clamp down on somebody has diminished quite a bit. Barnes doesn’t even give up that much on the offensive end since he’s got the range to space the floor and he sets some good screens.
December 29th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
Lol, I had a brain fart and was thinking of Matt Barnes instead Dudley… haha. By the way, Dudley and Barnes were basically the same player. I can see why PHO let him go during the off-season (Barnes made a few more K than Dudley).
December 29th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
Hehe, how about The Blair Beast Project?
December 29th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
Haha, just added all of the D. Blair nicknames to BFFA’s nicknames page. I like Grizzly Blair the best.
http://www.basketballfreeforall.com/nicknames
Dudley is a MUCH better defender than Barnes and brings a lot more to the table in terms of intangibles and locker room chemistry. I had much higher hopes for Barnes before last season. If anyone saw last night’s game against the Lakers and caught that jump ball between Dudley and Andrew Bynum it perfectly encapsulates everything Studley brings to the table. Dude has a mensa-level B-Ball IQ and I hope the Suns keep him until he retires. I couldn’t possibly be any higher on the kid. Barnes brings more of an enforcer-style thuggish defense. Duds is all smarts and effort.
December 29th, 2009 at 11:44 pm
Deep league alert: Suns trade Alando Tucker to the T-Wolves for Jason Hart (who was immediately waived by the Suns). With the T-Wolves tanking, Tucker could be given a chance to audition for minutes. Problem is he can’t shoot, which is what Minnesota should probably be looking for. They already have 2’s and 3’s that can’t shoot worth a damn.
December 30th, 2009 at 12:20 am
Pity it wasn’t the originally planned Hart for Devin Brown trade, as that would have seen either Thornton or Collison suddenly jump to the fore as the new starting Hornets SG.
December 30th, 2009 at 2:06 am
Yet another game where CJ Watson’s minutes outnumber Curry’s – he didn’t start, but yet again he finished while Curry sat. Put up another interesting stat line too. If CJ ever starts taking more shots he could really get interesting..
December 30th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
@ Andrew: I saw a few minutes when they had Collison alongside Paul… it just didn’t work so well since that made for a way smaller back court than even Golden State’s starting duo (couple of 6-0 Hornets versus 6-3 Warriors). I was originally hanging onto Collison in my keeper league hoping we’d see a tiny-dudes back court work out… but it was just looking really bad with the two of them at the same time. The risk/reward for DC is limited this year unless Paul goes out with a season-ending injury.
December 30th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
I saw yesterday’s game vs the Rockets. I think the problem was also the small frontcourt the Hornets ran for most of the 1st half – why they thought Songaila was a better option than Mek I’ll never know, and Landry certainly enjoyed pushing him around. A small back court will never work without good shot blockers to back them up.
Thornton seems to be ignored on offense now. Paul just waves him to a corner & ignores him, which is a terrible waste of MT’s abilities.
December 30th, 2009 at 6:16 pm
Charlie Villanueva isn’t talked about in this post, but I thought it was funny his latest blurb across Rotoworld. Apparently Kuester is getting frustrated by V’s missed defensive assignments. hahahahahaha I swear I thought Joe Dumars knew Charlie couldn’t play defense… it’s not like it’s Charlie’s fault he is inept on that end of the court. It’d be like benching Chuck Hayes for being too short.
http://www.detnews.com/article/20091230/SPORTS0102/912300440/1127/rss13
…
After the game, Villanueva said, “I’m not going to suit up so they can monitor my minutes. I’m suiting up because I feel I can play.”
On Wednesday, Villanueva said he and Kuester talked about “what I need to do, what I need to improve this team. I’ve been struggling the past couple of games. I missed some defensive assignments (Tuesday) and he took me out because of that. I understand it. You move on.”
…
December 30th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
@Andrew – spot on about Thornton. As far as Mek, they’ve been treating him like he’s radioactive in the 4th quarter. The Flower regime keeps thinking it’s better to leave the paint wide open due to his inefficient FT shooting.
@John-O – couldn’t agree more. CV was only average at times under Skiles so I’m not sure what the complaint is. Heck I’d figure you want someone of his caliber playing alongside Big Ben and Kwame.
December 31st, 2009 at 12:15 am
Nate in Portland deserves Coach of the Year. I have no idea how he’s doing it, but (so far) Howard and Pendergraph are dominating the boards against Kaman and Camby. Wow.
So what’s Pendergraph’s nickname going to be? Pendergraph Express? Inkblot on my Pendergraph Paper? Jeff?
December 31st, 2009 at 3:06 am
Lol – you jinxed him John-O. LaMarcus sprained an ankle but not figured to be serious. Supposedly, Nate and his what, 6-7 healthy players were just laughing about it at half time.
On a fantasy note, Luther Head continues to play well and exploded tonight with 30 points among other things.
December 31st, 2009 at 4:04 am
Indeed, who let Luther out of his cage? And after a string of woeful performances, Hungry Hungry Hibbert’s starting to put it together again as well. Perhaps its Murphy’s absence?
December 31st, 2009 at 11:05 am
Luther Head is a guy I want to see follow-up with another big performance before I get on the bandwagon. But definitely a guy to watch with the Pacers’ lineup in flux.
December 31st, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Indeed Phil – I was pointing this out for deep league’s who have room to take a flier.
December 31st, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Looking through Head’s game log, it seems whenever he’s gotten significant PT he’s produced pretty well, with just the odd heat check game here & there.
If he keeps outplaying Jones & Rush at SG this could be really interesting.
December 31st, 2009 at 3:44 pm
IMO, Luther’s been extremely inconsistent no matter what team he’s on. He was a huge tease in Houston, but his small stature and general… um… brain farts really mitigate his potential since scoring points but coughing up points on the other end tend to get coaches pissed off (Charlie V!). I didn’t see the IND/MEM game but if he was actually effectively running the offense then he definitely needs to get picked up. But if he is still the same old undersized guard who lacks PG skills, then he won’t amount to much more than what you saw out of Juan Dixon.
December 31st, 2009 at 7:13 pm
From what I understand, Earl Watson was running the offense and Luther was doing an AI impersonation at SG.
December 31st, 2009 at 9:31 pm
Back to the Kings again, it looks like Martin will be out a few more weeks at least, but at some stage he will be back. Right now we have Casspi@SF, Greene@SG, and both are playing well. Casspi is by far the more mature player of the two, but Greene has star potential and is dramatically improving game by game. If it weren’t for Kevin, both look like decent fantasy prospects imho.
We also have Noc at SF turning in the occasional big game & trying to prove he’s Lebron minus the passing.
So back to the old question. When Kevin’s back taking 35 min per game at SG, who goes back to the bench, who loses out on PT (not necessarily the same thing), and if one of them retains his role and PT will he still get the same number of shot attempts?
I don’t even want to think about what happens when Garcia’s healthy.
December 31st, 2009 at 9:48 pm
I get the feeling the Kings will make a move at some point, probably to get another big body. Assuming no moves, I like Casspi to keep his value long term with Greene the most likely to get demoted. Although admittedly, I haven’t watched too many Kings games lately so I don’t have much of a sense of how well Greene has played recently.
January 1st, 2010 at 10:42 pm
Krypto N8. Enough said.
Oh, and on a lesser note, Matt Barnes is getting more minutes as a starter, despite SVG saying he wouldn’t, and he’s doing pretty well.
January 2nd, 2010 at 3:29 am
Wow Nate! He was floating on the waiver wire in my deep 16 team league and I soo wanted to pick him up but who knew the next time he’d play. Lesson: next time Nate says he’s going to do something – BELIEVE (he said he’d be on the court soon).
Oh yeah, if you’re in the mood to go see a movie, Avatar really is fantastic.
January 2nd, 2010 at 7:10 am
Another guy I was going to mention – Rasual Butler looks like he’s secured the starting job over Thornton, and he’s in a good patch of form.
January 2nd, 2010 at 2:14 pm
IMO, if you pick up Nate and he puts up another decent game trade him ASAP. Owning that guy is almost as frustrating as owning Marcus Camby (I say almost, because nobody sucks more to own than Marcus).
You never know what you’ll get from him on a given night and if his game is off then it’s pretty bad. Look over the 2 seasons prior to this year… there were really only 2 or 3 full months where he actually played every game during that month. And even when when he is playing his stats are all over the place with little consistency and lots of 8 minute outings.
The only benefit I see for all the DNPCD’s is that it has kept him fresh for the Fantasy playoffs. Nate has traditionally sucked hard in April as he gets tired from his 120% energy level playing style.
January 2nd, 2010 at 9:09 pm
I decided to suffer and watch the Pacers/Wolves game (yes, it is a horrible matchup)… You’re right about Head, they have him at the two and he hardly handles the ball. It’ll be interesting to see how he matches up against 2-guards that actually play good defense. Rambis is currently going with a small backcourt of Flynn/Sessions so Head is finding easy spots for jumpers.
AJ Price also looks really good at the point. If the Pacers season goes awry they may start to give him more minutes. TJ Ford has inexplicably vanished and the Pacers’ announcers are already about Earl Watson becoming a coach someday.