Preview: Week 8
Well we’re more than a quarter through the season so it’s probably going to get more difficult finding significantly helpful players if you participate in active leagues. Instead, now is the time to keep a close eye on injuries. When a player goes down or is just hobbling, it usually means something positive for at least one of his teammates. Another item to keep in mind is that December 15th is the first day players signed this past off season can be dealt. Between now and the trade deadline (February 18th), expect teams to maneuver to either put themselves in better position for the playoffs or wave the white flag and start thinking about next year.
Week Eight Schedules
Four Games: CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, NOH, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, TOR, WAS, UTA
Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, GSW, MIA, MIL, PHX, SAS
Two Games: NONE
ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)
Erick Dampier (C – 34%) – If your team needs help with rebounds or blocks, Dampier is your man. Despite the glitch with his arm over a few weeks ago, he’s played extremely well when he’s gotten the minutes, as evidenced by the 35 rebounds the last two games. Without a doubt, he appears to be a contract year player so take advantage of him the rest of this season. Just keep in mind there will be matchups that limit him in certain games like against the Suns, Warriors or Knicks.
Jarrett Jack (PG/SG – 27%) – If your team is in need of guard help, you should pounce on Jack immediately. There is a good chance Jose Calderon might be missing a ton of time in the coming future as his hip is giving him problems. If he does miss significant time, the Jack-of-all-trades will be a wonderful source of points, assists, 3’s and FT% – everything you want out of a starting PG.
Joel Przybilla (C – 36%) – It’s rare to have possibly two excellent center prospects sitting on the waiver wire, but that’s what you may have this week. With just a 36% ownership, it’s obvious a number of fantasy managers haven’t jumped all over the Vanilla Gorilla upon hearing about Greg Oden going down for the rest of the year. When Oden has missed time in the past, Joel has stepped up and contributed excellent boards and solid blocks. Portland will lean on him heavily the rest of the year; consequently, so should you.
Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 23%) – So far this season, Brandon has done everything in his power to try to force himself off of most rosters. However, he continues to be a tough habit to kick. Why? Opportunity. Danny Granger is in the midst of missing anywhere from 4 to 6 weeks at the least. Meanwhile, Mike Dunleavy is going to continue to slowly be worked back into starter-like usage. Lastly, Dahntay Jones doesn’t possess a strong perimeter game, but more importantly, took a hard fall in last night’s game hurting his shoulder. Although he says he’s fine, he could be slowed down enough this week whereby Rush emerges as a fantastic contributor during the upcoming 4 game week.
CJ Watson (PG/SG – 15%) – I’m confused by the low ownership of Mr. Watson. I guess we need to call into Sherlock Holmes to solve this mystery, even though it doesn’t appear too mystifying. Since getting over the swine flu, CJ Watson has played fantastic ball. In the last 8 games, ziguana.com has him ranked as the 33rd best player as he’s put up solid numbers in all 9 standard categories. With the minutes he’s been getting, it’s obvious Nellie and crew have an affinity for him so go ride this guy while he’s hot!
CUT LIST
Will Bynum (PG/SG – 31%) – The last few games, “Will the Thrill” has been sidelined with a bum ankle. More troubling, with the Pistons on the verge of getting Richard Hamilton and Ben Gordon back and Rodney Stuckey finally hitting shots, Bynum’s minutes appear headed back to the low 20 range. If you do the math, his nice run appears to be over. Just keep him in mind the next time you hear about any injury/trade rumors regarding the Piston’s back court.
Nate Robinson (PG/SG – 36%) – If the 5 straight DNP’s haven’t helping you decide, let me tell you it’s time to move on. The final straw appeared to be fraternizing with Dwight Howard prior to the start of a game against the Magic. D’Antoni has recently stated he doesn’t plan on changing things either. Why should he? The Knicks are currently on their best winning streak since D’Antoni’s arrival in the Big Apple. I don’t have to remind anyone that Nate should be picked up at the first signs of court time considering his fantasy explosiveness.
Al Thornton (SF/PF – 58%) – This drop is more in line with the thinking that owners should be preparing to cut ties with Al in the coming weeks. Although Blake Griffin’s return has recently been delayed, Coach Dunleavy has expressed he might be the teams new starting forward. If Camby doesn’t get traded, that should spell the end for Thornton’s significance in standard leagues.
WATCH LIST
Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 5%) – It’s a shame the Israeli sensation can’t get off the watch list, but the depth of the Sacramento Kings is to blame. Regardless, he should continue to be an asset for points, 3’s, FG% and rebounds. Lately his defensive numbers have vanished, but I expect him to start contributing in these areas again considering his length and style of play. The big question mark is the inevitable return of Kevin Martin, but worry about that when the time comes.
Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 9%) – “Pyscho T” appears to have carved a consistent role off the Pacers bench. The last 3 games, he’s averaged over 17 points, 7 boards and 1.6 steals. Think DeJuan Blair here because low minutes (low 20s) won’t kill his value. This guy gets it done and he could help you if you’re pressed for forward production.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (SF/PF – 4%) – Usually when you’re one of the coaches favorites and get over 30 minutes a game, you’re worth owning in standard leagues. However, this Prince isn’t the case. He is the Bucks no glory guy where he’ll play tough defense and bring fantastic intensity – too bad that rarely translates well for fantasy purposes. However, despite this, he’s bound to fall into some numbers. Deep leaguers should definitely considering owning him, but standard leagues should probably just pay attention to whether he can get into any kind of groove regarding any type of production in coming games.
Luke Ridnour (PG – 39%) – There is no other explanation other than Luke has found the force. Through more than the quarter of this season, he just can’t miss as evidenced by the 51.8 FG%. His previous season high? 43.3%. The reason he’s on the watch list though is playing time. As the Bucks have gotten healthier, his minutes have dropped measurably (under 18 the last 4 games). Most players can’t do a whole lot with limited time so expect Luke to follow suit shortly.
Martell Webster (SG/SF – 10%) – I’m kind of getting tired about writing about this guy, but due to the rash of Portland injuries, he’s borderline worth owning in standard leagues. He’s semi-capable of doing a lot of things: scoring, 3’s, rebounds and defensive stats, but, for whatever reason, he can’t do any of them consistently. Perhaps someone/something will get through to him where that’ll change, however, don’t hold your breath as I expect his maddening play to continue.
STAY THE COURSE
Mario Chalmers (PG – 65%) – Admittedly Mario hasn’t found his groove for much of the entire first quarter of the season, but don’t give up hope. I expect Coach Spo’ to attempt to get him going as the season progresses plus Rio will probably stop getting into so much foul trouble early on in games. His outside jumper is much more efficient this season and with no real challengers to his skill set, Chalmers will continue to be given significant time.
Boris Diaw (SF/PF – 77%) – The arrival of Stephen Jackson has perhaps put Diaw into a noticeable funk, as evidenced by a drop in his numbers across the board. It’s not too surprising that his usage would suffer, but don’t make too much out of this in such a small sample size. First and foremost, realize that he’s currently in the midst of a significant slump as his shot hasn’t been falling. Considering the Bobcats have no other decent options at PF his minutes will continue to be strong so just ride this out.
COMING BACK FROM INJURY
Plonden’s mentions of Yi Jianlian (PF – 1%) and Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 40%) still apply. Also, now is the time to probably grab Jameer Nelson (PG – 66%) if he happens to be available.
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS
Jose Juan Barea (PG – 5%) – Recently, Mr. Barea has supplanted Rodrigue Beaubois in the Maverick’s starting lineup. Prior to that, he had a 3 game stretch of non-existent play so it’s conceivable another owner let him go. Considering Howard’s still coming back from injury and the Coach’s penchant for Jose, he could be useful in the short term for some points, 3’s, assists and steals.
Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 4%) – Really wanted to put “Buckets” on the watch list, but considering that many deep leaguers probably have recently let him go, I wanted him in this section of the article. Thornton has a 4 game week coming up and his shot has recently returned. I expect at least solid points and 3’s out of him, but look for more. Chris Paul has been enamoured with this kid since he was drafted and is recently trying to get him to do more – rebound, drive to the basket, etc. Hopefully this translates into better boards, steals and a more meaningful FT% in the near future.
Damien Wilkins (SG/SF – 1%) – If Ryan Gomes‘ ankle/knee injury last night forces him to miss any time, Damien looks to be the beneficiary. He’ll give a little bit of everything, but most likely it’ll be short lived as Gomes’ injury didn’t appear to be serious.
Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 1%) – Almost forgot to add this guy – thanks for the reminder Andrew! Recently, Wright has gotten solid run for a few reasons. One, Quentin Richardson continues to miss time due to injury. Two, Wright seems to have improved his play including an improved jumper and better decision making. He may be indeed be worth a speculative add if you have the roster space.
December 13th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
Hi Red, excellent summary as always
Couple of comments (in no particular order):-
Chalmers is a worry – apart from increased efficiency his actual on-court play seems to have regressed. Unless he improves I’m looking for Dorell Wright to eat up more of his PT as a point forward.
Diaw’s ownership is dropping, might be time to look to pick him up at some point, but for whatever reason he just isn’t firing this year.
Varejao might be worth looking at. He was benched because he wasn’t much threat on offense, but lately he’s been pick & rolling quite efficiently (and helped destroy my head 2 head matchup this week).
CJ Watson has two deterrents – he’s a no-name D Leaguer, and he comes off the bench. I wish he’d get a few more shot attempts per game, but the Warriors are a mess so it’ll continue to be highly variable. I love his defensive stats though.
December 13th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
Oh, and I wouldn’t bank on Granger just being out 4-6 weeks. If he does return that quickly, good chance he’ll injure the foot again & be out for the season. Its a nasty painful injury that’s difficult to heal 100%.
December 13th, 2009 at 8:19 pm
Thanks for the comments Andrew – especially mentioning Wright! I forgot I had wanted to include him after his breakout game a few games ago.
No doubt Chalmers and Diaw are worrisome, but that’s why I put them in Stay the Course. These guys have a pretty good track record so dumping them for the next hot guy just doesn’t appear that wise at this point. Naturally it depends on who is sitting there on the WW.
AV has definitely turned it on but his 47% ownership missed our cut-off. Once the solid adds 40% and under guys start disappearing, I’ll start adding a few higher ownership guys.
Yeah – I’m not super hopefully on Granger keeping to the minimum of that timeline. I’ve read that typically recover time is usually between 7-12 weeks. If he was to miss 6 weeks, that’d be 23 games so no doubt regardless of what the timeline ends up being, it’s very severe to Granger owners.
December 13th, 2009 at 8:44 pm
… unless, like me, they managed to trade the injured Granger for Gallo & Deng
December 13th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
Also, Wright is not a threat to Chalmers while QRich is out, as Wright will play at SF. With QRich healthy and starting, Wright will spend time at PG as he did in the breakout game. He’s turning it on again today btw.
December 13th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
Great post, Red!
As a Chalmers owner myself, I am pretty damn close to kicking him to the curb. Is this a classic “sophomore slump” we’re seeing here? He put up another pedestrian line tonight (4 points, 5 boards, 5 assists with poor efficiency).
December 14th, 2009 at 12:22 am
Hang onto him a bit longer plonden. It’d be one thing if Chalmers is struggling and the Heat are winning, but that’s not the case. My thinking is Coach Spo + Wade should know and will try to get a few more of his guys going including Mario. In keeping up with the Heat, a lot of fans feel as though Spo has had something akin to a muzzle on him thus far (much more so than any sophomore slump argument). Interestingly, in the game he scored 30 points, he did practically all of the damage in the 2nd half after they were down 20! That just tells me he’s definitely got it but hasn’t been utilized properly.
December 14th, 2009 at 12:44 am
There’s probably something in that, as Spo’s been pulling Beasley on every error as well & refusing to let him play out the 4th quarter. It seems quite likely that his treatment of both Beasley and “Snake” are hurting their confidence right now, though whether that means the situation will change for the better sometime is anyone’s guess.
Quick question for you all: I currently hold Ilyasova & Thad Young, want to pick up Diaw (someone dropped him), but can’t for the life of me decide who to drop, or whether I even should…
December 14th, 2009 at 10:34 am
@Andrew: Yeah, I’m not a fan of not giving your young stud solid minutes in crunch time either. At least they seem to try to get Beasley going in most games early. Wish they’d be as concerned about their future PG?
I’d probably tell you to stand pat if those are your two worst players. I like Young’s prospects for the rest of the season the best. Ersan is still rebounding quite nicely playing alongside Bogut and dropping 3’s. Since Diaw’s assists have vanished, his value isn’t special anymore.
December 14th, 2009 at 11:02 am
^ I agree with Red. Definitely not Thaddeus and probably not EI at this point. Ersan seems to be limited by foul trouble more than anything but his combination of boards and threes makes him a solid fantasy contributor.
December 14th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Yeah Skiles loves hustle, and Ersan gets a lot of offensive boards.
Does anyone think that Delonte West is going to get into the starting lineup? He is playing better than Parker. What is the hold up?
December 14th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
@lastemp3ror – Probably the same arguments apply prior to West’s meltdown. He just simply fits better coming off the bench as he’s better at facilitating offense. With Lebron and Mo in the starting lineup, having a spot up shooter (50% from beyond the arc) + good length on defense fits well at the start. Where West can hopefully make up the minutes is being there in crunch time…
December 14th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
Hey guys, Kate Fagan just recently tweeted that Lou Williams is saying he’ll be back December 26th. She’s going to try to confirm it at tonight’s game since nothing official has been released.
December 14th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
Thanks Red – if you hear anything can you post it here please?
Also thanks everyone for the advice above. Ersan’s FG% hurts me & I also have Bogut & Jennings making for a glut of Bucks, yet its hard to ignore his potential. He’s getting so many shot attempts, if he just starts landing them he’ll be an absolute monster.
December 14th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
Dunleavy starting tonight in place of Dahntay Jones (haha told you to pick up Rush for the week!) Jrue Holiday in place of Elton Brand (as a Brand owner, I’m hoping it’s just the matchup against GSW and the starting lineup fails miserably).
December 14th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
It’ll be really interesting if Lou does return early. Jordan previously said that Lou will start next to AI. If he still intends to start Lou, who will sit down?
December 14th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
Indeed Andrew. Since Jrue is getting the start tonight, I expect he’s thinking Sweet Lou comes back and slides right in. Brand looks like the obvious loser at the moment. Gonna make a toast tonight that the Sixers keep losing and EJ gets fired in the near future.
December 14th, 2009 at 8:59 pm
Wow, after this quarter from Young there’s no way I’m dropping him for a washed up Boris
December 14th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
No word on Lou?
December 14th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
Kate Fagan – prior to the game – “Williams wasn’t in the locker room and Sixers coach Eddie Jordan said the timetable for Williams’ return has not yet been altered.”
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/deep-sixer/
December 14th, 2009 at 11:46 pm
Will be interesting to see what the Sixers do in their next game. If they start Jrue again, irrespective of matchups, then it might be worth it to pick up Lou just in case he’s not that far away. It might also be time to start selling Brand
December 15th, 2009 at 12:36 am
Funny quote from Elton Brand: “No disrespect, but, Mikki Moore, he gets to start and I don’t.”
http://twitter.com/deepsixer3/statuses/6684083404
Couldn’t agree with him more. I pray either Elton gets traded out of there or Eddie Jordan is booted out of Philly.
December 15th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Brand on the bench while Speights is still hurt hmmmm. The Wizards should trade Saunders for Jordan.
December 15th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
Or perhaps trade Jamison for Brand
Don’t think the Wiz want Jordan back!
In the absence of news about Calderon & after reading Jordan’s comments about continuing to start Jrue, I’ve dropped Jack for next week & picked up Lou Will.
December 16th, 2009 at 12:13 am
Last time the big 3 in Washington were all healthy, Jordan was coaching the Eastern All Star team
Maybe not everyone in Washington wants him back but I am sure some of the players do.
December 16th, 2009 at 1:36 am
I doubt Brendan Haywood wants him … nor Gilbert Arenas for that matter, with the comments that he & Jordan have made about each other in the media.
Its an interesting idea though. Why don’t teams trade coaches? It’d certainly save money compared to firing & hiring new ones all the time.
December 16th, 2009 at 10:40 am
It would certainly be interesting if teams could trade coaches. Now we’re on to something!
I imagine Chicago wouldn’t mind moving Vinny too…
December 16th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
Brand benched again tonight, and … Speights is back. I feel for Brand owners, I really do – the last week or so was the time to sell him.
December 17th, 2009 at 12:30 am
Wow. I am speechless. Speights is definitely bad news for Brand’s value. How long to EB starts demanding a trade out of Philly?
December 17th, 2009 at 1:06 am
To look away from Philly atm – Morrow’s game seems to have entirely deserted him since he took a break for a family funeral. He is woeful bad. Do owners hang tough or cut their losses?
December 17th, 2009 at 1:28 am
Hawes dropped from Kings starting lineup, doesn’t play until 2nd half. Noc moves to PF, Casspi comes in at SF.
Looks like Westphal’s sending Hawes a message, be interesting to see if he continues with that lineup – if so, Casspi would be a wonderful pickup.
December 17th, 2009 at 1:40 am
I’d very much like to see eventual Kings lineups of Evans, Martin, Casspi, Greene, Thompson or (depending on matchups and Hawes’s form) Evans, Martin, Casspi, Thompson, Hawes. Beno’s proving an excellent 6th man, and Garcia’s still to return as well…
December 17th, 2009 at 1:44 am
I’m gonna hang onto Morrow in the few leagues I’ve got him. He’s such a good shooter that I’m certin this has to be temporary. His efficiency along with those 3’s is just too good to pass for the next flavor of the week.
I love Omri and his ridiculous shooting motion! Not sold standard leagues should be nabbing him as I completely agree Hawes is currently being punished (plus Jamison isn’t a std PF).
I don’t even want to talk about what’s going on in Philly as it makes my blood boil. Just want to say that Brand is not washed up. When EJ took the job he made all sorts of comments on how he was going to make it work with Philly’s $$ man. ARGH – LIAR! EJ’s got only one template and if the pieces don’t fit, it’s ugly.
December 17th, 2009 at 2:01 am
Yeah though what worries me with Morrow isn’t so much him, its his team-mates, or rather the style of me-first offense they run with minimal ball movement. When Morrow’s hot, they find him & he runs up a nice score, but usually when he’s cold (or they just forget about him) he barely even gets any shot attempts (eg tonight 1-3 in 32 minutes so far). He’d do brilliantly in a system where he could come off screens, but that’s not going to happen at Golden State.
Omri putting up a nice statline tonight, though inefficient by his standards. Westphal’s a very flexible “go with whatever works” coach, so its hard to say whether Omri’s role as a starter will continue. I guess it might depend on whether the Kings win tonight
December 17th, 2009 at 11:25 am
It is amazing to think of the depth the Kings will have when Garcia and Martin return. They will be deep everywhere, except probably at the five. What a surprising season for the Kings!
Keep an eye on Billups’ MRI results. If he misses a few games Lawson could be a nice plug-in.
December 17th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
Lou Will participating in full contact practice, and AI’s hurt & getting MRIs.
December 18th, 2009 at 12:52 am
Watched a lot of the 4th quarter of the Heat game and D. Wright was quite active. It’s too bad QRich is back because Wright looks like he could develop into a nice multi-cat fantasy player. Still definitely worth an add in deep leagues.
December 18th, 2009 at 11:46 pm
Omri started again, put up a good line again. If he keeps doing this he’ll definitely be worth picking up, as it’ll be hard to see him benched again.
December 18th, 2009 at 11:50 pm
Massive, huge performance from Lowry today. If only he could do that all the time! Almost certainly got all the PT due to matching up with Dallas’s 3 PG lineup.
December 20th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
^ Lowry dropped a stinker to follow up his ridiculous line last week. I put him on this week’s preview anyway with the caveat that he should be picked up immediately if Aaron Brooks ever goes down.