Preview: Week 4
Yet another week has passed and there were more changes to the fantasy landscape. Chris Paul, Travis Outlaw, Josh Howard, Kelenna Azubuike and Marreese Speights went down this week. Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, Eric Gordon, Courtney Lee and Troy Murphy continued their Mr. Invisible impressions. At least Antwan Jamison and Rashard Lewis will be sure to return this week. Also, can’t go without mentioning Brandon Jennings. He is the reason why NBA League Pass just might be worth it as it’s highly unlikely most of us will even have an opportunity to watch Bucks’ games.
Week Four Schedules
Four Games: ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, MIA, MIL, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, TOR
Three Games: BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, LAC, LAL, MEM, NJN, NYK, PHI, PHI, SAC, SAS, UTA, WAS
Two Games: MIN
ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)
Will Bynum – He’s got a juicy four game schedule and both Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton are not expected to play during the road trip. Although Bynum’s numbers will likely take a hit when Rip gets back, he still might be worth owning as he’ll probably still get around 25 minutes a game and contribute decent scoring stats, assists and steals.
Toney Douglas – Over the last week, Toney has been the Knicks best guard. It’s not saying much when you check the competition but it is very noteworthy. D’Antoni’s grey is becoming more noticeable by the day and he’s tired of it. Currently, he is re-evaluating the entire rotation and it is expected he’ll go with the youth. I expect Toney to continue to get strong playing time and help fantasy owners in scoring stats, efficiency and steals.
Rudy Fernandez/Martell Webster – Funny how in one week Martell goes from the drop list to the add list. Thanks Outlaw! With Travis sidelined for at least 6 weeks, both of these guys will probably be worth owning. Martell has a golden opportunity to really seize some time as it’s not expected the Blake/Miller/Roy trio to continue starting. If Webster is able to start knocking his shot down with any regularity, he’ll put up very serviceable numbers across the board. Rudy on the other hand is a perfect fit for the 6th man so that should continue. However, his minutes are going to get a bump up so nab him if you really need help with 3’s and steals.
Chris Douglas-Roberts – He licked the swine flu in no time and has already logged 35 minutes in the Nets last game. Pick him up if he’s available because the Nets are in dire need of his potential contributions. He’ll be rewarding owners as soon as this coming week in points, efficiency, steals and rebounds.
Thabo Sefolosha – There is no denying it, he has a major role in the Thunder’s rotation because of his defensive abilities. It’s a great sign that he’s still been getting a ton of time even though his shot has been way off of late (6-25 in the last 4 games). While he’ll never be a volume shooter, he will help fantasy managers in 3’s, boards and defensive categories.
CUT LIST
DJ Augustin – Seems DJ is going through the motions of a second year player. There were high hopes entering the season but he’s gotten off to a slow start and it appears Larry Brown won’t help him. The other night, DJ took a shot off a pick and roll instead of passing to the open player and Coach promptly yanked him. With Raja Bell attempting to play through his injuries and Flip Murray back, Augustin will be pressed to find consistent minutes.
Chris Duhon – Chris was never meant to be a fantasy relevant player, but that changed the day he put on a Knick uniform. While he has the ability to put up some nice numbers on occasion, he hasn’t even been close thus far this season. D’Antoni hasn’t kicked him to the curb yet, but I expect the next game or two to be a nice barometer for the next few months. If he shows signs of snapping out of it, hang on to him as Coach will undoubtedly stick with him. If not, send him packing.
Josh Howard - Well that didn’t take long. Howard is already out indefinitely with rumors claiming he’ll be out until the end of December. Considering the surgery was back in May and he’s still not right, I don’t suggest standard leagues to stick by this brittle body.
WATCH LIST
Darren Collison – Darren might be a nice plug in option for at least this upcoming week, but I’m not sold on him. He struggled in his first start against the Hawks and scary as it sounds, Bobby Brown outplayed him. It’s easy to envision him going from a bad game to average to bad to good to bad again. Also, after this week, the Hornets will have two straight weeks of just 2 games so I assume there should be a better interim option out there at this time.
JJ Hickson – The Cavaliers moved him into the starting lineup to shake things up a bit after a disappointing start to the year. Somewhat surprisingly, JJ has come through with flying colors. In their last game against Utah, he put up 20 points, but more importantly, he received 38 minutes on the floor. If this continues, then he’ll most likely be worthy of ownership in standard sized leagues.
Marcus Thornton - Last week, I had him in my Deep League Specials section, but this week he gets a bump up. It’s no secret that the Hornets are struggling especially on the offensive end. Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Devin Brown and James Posey have looked awful too many times. With Jeff Bower responsible for drafting Marcus, I believe he’ll get his share of chances at significant playing time rewarding owners with points, 3’s, FT% and steals.
STAY THE COURSE
Andris Biedrins – Horrid start for sure. Combine that with a lousy back injury that seemed to be perpetuated by Nellie’s lack of sense, he’s giving fantasy owners absolutely nothing right now. However, according to Ziguana, he put up Round 5 value last season. Considering the Warriors have no other viable center, he’ll jump back into the rotation once he’s deemed healthy.
John Salmons – He couldn’t have gotten off to a worst start – under 32% from the field thus far. However, don’t make the mistake on either dropping him or selling low as he’s a proven efficient shooter. Despite his struggles, he’s averaging 38 minutes a game so it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a valuable asset on your team.
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS
Eddy Curry, Jordan Hill – I’ve got a strong feeling one of these two guys will be relevant as soon as this coming week. David Lee at center seems worse than last year as his opposition is running layup drills around him. With Darko Milicic apparently not a factor, one can expect D’Antoni to next look to these two guys. Hill has shown flashes of late that he’s got some game but he still has a number of things to learn (as indicated by his foul rate). Curry has been a laughing stock for such a long time but the Knicks are desperate. He’s lost a ton of weight and might be serviceable until his next injury.
CJ Watson – In the world of Nellie, even fodder can turn into gold. Not surprisingly, Stephen Curry has already landed on the end of the bench so CJ has been able to receive some fantastic minutes the last two games (27 and 34). Subsequently, he has taken full advantage of it by playing very well and there is a decent chance it’ll continue in the short term.
November 16th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Sounds like CJ Watson has the H1N1… Does this make Acie Law Nellie’s next big rising star?
I’d say this was sarcasm, except Nellie is insane and will probably give Acie 48 minutes.
November 16th, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Yeah John-O heard the same thing this morning. However, with Law just getting traded with Sjax to Charlotte the last hour, at least we don’t have to worry about him.
If CJ Watson gets over his illness, he now seems like a fantastic speculative add for deeper leagues.
November 16th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Just learned from Kate Fagan’s tweets:
http://twitter.com/deepsixer3
that Brand is still on EJ’s hitlist. Will be interesting to see if Jason Kapono, Willie Green or Jason Smith emerge as primary beneficiaries.
November 16th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
Lol – There is only 1 organization worse run than the Warriors, and Jackson found his way there. Chandler, Jackson, Henderson, Augustin, and Gerald need to form a support group.
I bet Nelson is going to ask an AP photographer to take multiple SJax-with-asad-face-while-sitting-on-the-bench-in-a-fourth-quarter-blowout photos to hang in his office.
November 16th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
RE: Staying the course with Biedrins…
From what I’ve read, his injury is likely to last months. I’m not worried about whether or not Biedrins can produce when healthy but I am worried about when that will be.
November 16th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
And with Jackson gone, does that mean Morrow will start at SF, and that he won’t be frozen out of the offense anymore? Definitely one to watch. Azubuike’s gone for the season, leaving a big hole in their scoring. I’d expect Nellie to start Vlad as well – a PF that can shoot the 3, how could he resist?
JJ Hickson apparently did a lot of training with Lebron over the offseason, and Lebron had a lot to do with his ascension to the starting lineup. Nearly all of JJ’s points are assisted by either Lebron or Mo, as teams try to double on them & leave JJ open. If this continues and his rebounding/blocks pick up then he’ll be a must-have. I can’t help comparing this to Jackson/Monte’s treatment of Curry and Morrow…
November 16th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
Btw Acie’s off to the Bobcats too, so he’s not going to be much use fantasy-wise. I’d expect Jackson’s numbers to take a dip, taking into account the Bobcats slower offense and Crash being the predominant scorer.
November 16th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
@Andrew: In a perfect world, S-Jax’s efficiency (FG% and turnovers) will improve to offset any decrease in scoring he might have. That being said, I think the Bobacts brought Jackson in to be a scorer, as they are currently last in points per game (82.4) and last in pace adjusted offensive ratings (99.4 points per 100 possessions).
Also, J.J. Hickson has had 81.8 percent of his points assisted. Nice call.
http://hoopdata.com/advancedstats.aspx
November 16th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
@Bonky: I believe Red is suggesting to stay the course on Biedrins until you hear more definitive news on his specific injury. I saw the same reports you did and the timelines vary wildly. But no sense in cutting an upper-middle round pick without hearing the full details. If it turns out to be a less serious case, AB could be back with enough time to produce. Don’t hit the panic button just yet.
November 16th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
@plonden, I worry about Biedrins. He played badly for Latvia in the offseason, and wasn’t happy about being the subject of multiple trade rumours. He started the season looking disinterested, out of shape and playing like a zombie, and that was before his injury. If I held him (and thankfully I don’t) I’d be trying hard to trade him, though I can’t imagine there’d be many takers.
November 16th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
Btw, just another snippet I thought I’d share – its rumoured Troy Murphy will come off the bench when he returns, as the Pacers don’t want to mess with a successful starting lineup. Also Dunleavy is apparently practicing with the team now.
November 16th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Oh, and sorry about the rapid-fire posts, but Ryan Anderson’s another one to watch. Lewis is expected to start at PF with Barnes/Pietrus at SF for their defence, but they’ve got a logjam on the bench at PF with Anderson and Bass, plus the Magic play best with 4 good outside shooters.
Lewis used to be an SF – if SVG doesn’t like the team’s play with him @ PF and Barnes @ SF, its very possible Lewis could move to his old position and Anderson return to the starting lineup. Even if he doesn’t, Anderson’s shooting and offensive rebounding could (I repeat, could) see him get significant PT. As I said, one to watch. Glad no-one in my league reads this blog
November 17th, 2009 at 10:35 am
Andrew, I agree that Biedrins has been a huge disappointment and I am also worried. But if you drafted him, you either sell him for peanuts or you stick it out until we get more definitive news. For me, the only option is to hang tough until we know more and then evaluate. It will probably make sense to cut your losses at some point but I don’t think we’ve reached that point yet.
Thanks for the snippets. For the Magic’s forward rotation, I am watching but probably not buying any of those guys going forward. Too many mouths to feed. I imagine they rotate big games depending upon matchups and cancel out each others’ fantasy values. But definitely a situation to monitor.
November 17th, 2009 at 1:47 pm
@Andrew
Murphy to come off the bench? Can you share the source of this info please?
Thank you
November 17th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Thanks for the responses…WOW.
Yeah, plonden pretty much nailed it for me regarding Biedrins. Guy can be a flat out stud so the only way I see a team dropping him right now is someone with like 3+ injuries or an H2H team in/close to the cellar. Otherwise, you’ve gotta give him more time.
Ryan Anderson is a good watch for right now as Van Gundy will play with all those SF/PF’s to see what is the best unit w/Howard, Lewis, Carter and Nelson. Personally I don’t feel any of them emerging and it’ll be up and down for him all year.
After watching some of the Bucks game last night, Ersan Ilyasova should be an add. Warrick continues to struggle and with Ersan finally rebounding like a machine and avoiding so many PF’s he looks really good going forward. The return of Redd might his scoring a bit but it appears Moute/Ilyasova are the Bucks best tandem at the forward spots.
Hopefully owners have dropped AI (don’t see him landing in NY) and avoided Bell (surgery sounds like great possibility). If Anthony Randolph, Anthony Morrow or Steph Curry are on the WW, pick them up!
November 17th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
@lastemp3ror
http://blogs.indystar.com/pacersinsider/archives/2009/11/make_it_four_in.html
It’s more speculation at this point since the Pacers have been playing so well (4-0) with Jones in starting lineup and Granger at PF. I personally don’t believe it will happen. Both Jones or Rush seem like they’d make for fantastic 6th men and I’m sure O’Brien would agree.
November 17th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Just read that Jameer Nelson is out 4-6 weeks so those needing PG help should look Jason Williams way.
Also, anyone catch that Monta Ellis appears to be headed out of GSW despite Bell agreeing to undergo season ending surgery? How good do Morrow, Curry, Randolph and Maggette look now?
November 17th, 2009 at 4:28 pm
Jameer Nelson out 4-6 weeks with a torn miniscus. Looks like J-Williams is now Orlando’s starting point guard and is worth a speculative add if you have a roster spot.
EDIT: Red beat me to it.
November 17th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
@Redhopeful
Thanks for the link.
I also added Ilyasova. He had some stand out performances in the preseason as well. Plus, like you said, Warrick has had several chances to solidify his starting position, and failed. Not gonna lie, I am also bias towards turkish players
November 17th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
@lastemp3ror: http://twitter.com/Wells222 – Mike Wells quoting a Jim O’Brian comment re Murphy off the bench.
Coaches can, of course, change their minds without prior notice so we won’t know till it happens.
I also added Ilyasova (gotta love rebounding PFs who shoot lots of 3s), and am looking forward to actually starting Morrow soon. The Warriors still have terrible problems – very thin at SG/SF, and Ellis looks like becoming a cancer on & off the court. Morrow & Randolph’s production will skyrocket if Curry starts & brings the ball up (not Ellis!).