Basketball Free For All

With Yao Ming officially down and out for the 2009-10 NBA season, fantasy managers in keeper and dynasty formats all have an interesting dilemma. Similar dilemmas play out each season, with recent examples being Elton Brand in 2007-08 and Gilbert Arenas in 2008-09. Dealing with injuries is one of the keys to fantasy success and is more complicated in dynasty and keeper formats.

In laying out the basics of keeper and dynasty strategy, the main thing to remember is that the fundamental goal every season is to win a championship. Anything less than a gold trophy can be considered a failure; there is no prize for rebuilding. However, winning the ultimate prize is easier said than done, especially when you lose one of your top players, such as Yao, for the entire season.

As always, league settings play a large role in how to handle the Ming Dilemma. Each individual situation is different and there is no one-size-fits-all approach to handling Yao Ming this season. The reason Yao Ming is such an interesting case study is because he is a bona fide first round talent in virtually every format when healthy. This makes the decision of whether to cut your losses and move on much more difficult.

Let’s take at some of the possible scenarios and examine the different methods of dealing with the Ming Dilemma.

Already Own Yao Ming

The greatest dilemma falls on the owners who already have Yao on their rosters as a keeper. In dynasty league formats, you have no choice but to hang on to Yao Ming and waste a roster spot carrying him all season. In dynasty formats, most managers have dead weight at the end of their rosters. Dynasty formats allow managers to carry project players for long periods of times as the players develop and improve.

In keeper leagues, the dilemma is more pronounced and is greatly affected by individual league settings and team makeup. In general, the more keepers a league allows, the more it makes sense to hang on to Yao. Extremely deep keeper leagues (10+ teams) are more akin to dynasty leagues than to shallow keeper leagues, which are strategically closer to redraft leagues.

Stacked teams are less likely to be forced into keeping Yao Ming or another injured superstar. These teams can sacrifice some long-term value for a worse player who will provide an immediate positive impact. At risk of sounding like a broken record, the point in any league is to win this season. Thus, if you have other viable keeper options, do not hesitate to get rid of Ming or another injured superstar.

One important caveat to note. For any league with an injured-reserve spot (or multiple IR spots), it almost universally makes sense to hang on to Yao Ming or another injured superstar. In these formats, Yao’s dead weight can be carried for most of the season without affecting your ability to compete for a title.

Yao is on the Waiver Wire

In some keeper leagues, Yao has already ended up on the waiver wire. Maybe he wasn’t drafted at all, or maybe he was jettisoned in favor of a guy who has played at a high level during the preseason. However he ended up there, inevitably managers start to wonder whether it makes sense to pick him up because it is a keeper league.

In most cases, it does not make sense to pickup Yao Ming if he is currently on the waiver wire. At this juncture in the season, your number one all-consuming goal should be winning the another trophy for your trophy case. Ming’s dead weight is a serious drag and greatly hinders this goal. In order to win, you need every advantage you can get.

I would recommend picking up Yao off the waiver wires in only two scenarios this season. The first is extremely positive medical news featuring a much quicker recovery timeline than expected. To take advantage of this, keep a close eye on any medical reports out of Houston and be prepared to act on a moment’s notice.

The second scenario occurs when your team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Once this occurs, it makes complete sense to drop no-upside players, such as Antonio McDyess, in order to make room for Yao. In keeper and dynasty leagues, the season is not over when you are eliminated from the playoffs. Instead, managers are greatly rewarded for picking up possible breakout candidates for next season and rostering them for the offseason. Then, you can monitor offseason developments and have more flexibility to make deals at the keeper deadline. A good example of this is owners who picked up Anthony Randolph at the end of last season for his scorching finish. Those managers were rewarded with a keeper quality player in leagues of five or more keepers.

Trade for Yao?

Similar to the situation in which Yao Ming is on the waiver wire, it can make sense to trade for Yao Ming. When mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, it is open season on lowball offers for injured studs. If the managers that owns an injured studs is competing for a trophy, they will most likely trade an injured stud for a much worse player in order to get production that can help them win now. In this case, a trade is mutually beneficial for both teams as one team improves in the short term and one team improves  in the long term.

Conclusion

From much injury experience, I can attest that it is very, very difficult to carry dead weight for an entire season and still win a championship. Thus, the Ming Dilemma is a serious one that will have serious ramifications on your team’s success in the short and long term. Keep Yao only when it makes sense to do so. These strategies don’t only apply to Yao Ming — they also work with any injured superstar.