Basketball Free For All

Everyone loves to hate on referee’s.   It’s practically a national pastime all over the world.   These guys are the main reason why your favorite team happens to lose a close game – at least that’s what many fans like to believe as it’s easier to hate on the whistle blowers than our beloved players.  Well, this upoming NBA season, there are many writers proclaiming the hate will probably grow exponentially.

So far the biggest topic of conversation during the preseason games has been about the officiating.  Specifically, everyone seems to be pointing towards the substantial increase in the amount of fouls, and thus, free throws being awarded.

After the first week of the NBA preseason, there is a decided difference in the officiating by the league’s replacement referees.

Games are taking longer, in part because the fouls called and free throws attempted are the most in at least the last three preseasons the NBA’s regular referees were working.

Compared to the first 21 games last preseason, fouls called are up 15.5%, free throws attempted are up 18.9% and games are taking six minutes longer.

Source:  USA Today

Couple  this with the last time the league had to deal with replacement referees, it’s not surprising everyone is shaking in their Converse Nikes, Reeboks and Addidas.

In 1995, the N.B.A. assembled a makeshift staff of officials from the Continental Basketball Association and pro-am leagues. The preseason opened with just 41 referees and the league was forced to use two-man crews, instead of the standard three.

Source:  New York Times

Players openly criticized the 1995 replacements and expressed relief when the lockout ended.  For instance, Charles Oakley stated that they needed 5 replacements to make up for 1 locked out referee.  Chris Webber simply said “Hallelujah.”

On the surface, there indeed seems to be cause for concern especially the alarming deviation in the recent statistics.  Not surprisingly, like a California wildfire, people were quick to hop on the replacement-referees-must-go bandwagon.  However, from my research, you’ll see it’s been quite a bit overblown.

First, in the USA Today article, you’ll notice a chart at the bottom of the page which reveals the author decided to take a somewhat skewed view of the statistics.  He is correct in stating there is a significant difference between this year and last.  However, when you also include 2006 and 2007, the personal foul differential becomes less drastic.  For the first 21 games of the last 3 seasons (2006-08), there was an average of 54.2 fouls per game.  When compared to the first 21 games of 2009, the personal fouls have only increased by just under 10%.

Second, and probably the more significant factor, the replacement referees should be viewed something akin to rookies.  Most of them have never called a regular NBA game.  Thus, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that these guys have had somewhat of a rough start.

However, do not despair and compare these guys to the last group of replacement referees in 1995.  The new batch are much improved and here’s why.  One, the 1995 group had very little experience having only called games in a handful of Continental Basketball Association and, dare I say, pro-am games.  On the contrary, the majority of the 2009 replacements have called games in either the D-League or the WNBA.  Consequently, they are already ahead of the game with an extensive knowledge of NBA rules.

They have been trained by N.B.A. personnel for years, learning N.B.A. mechanics and play-calling expectations, said Joel Litvin, the league’s president for league and basketball operations.

Source:  New York Times

Two, back in 1995, the replacements only worked in two man crews since the league couldn’t scrounge enough amateurs together.  It’s no wonder they were overwhelmed as the had to call games a man down!  This time around, that won’t happen as the NBA will have a full complement of 60 referees.

I guess the question becomes, can these new guys adjust, and more importantly, quickly enough to be ready for the start of the regular season?  Well, in calculating the last 20 NBA preseason games (Oct 10-13), the average personal fouls called has dropped to 53.75 per game.  That’s only 4.2% more than last season.  Moreover, when pitted against the prior 3 year average of 54.2 PF’s per game, the increase folks?  There isn’t one as the number of fouls have dropped by about 1%.

In watching a few preseason games, I haven’t noticed all these supposed bad calls.  Rather, it seems like the game has been called quite accurately.  Could this really be such a bad thing?  Think about it.  No more star preferential treatment.  Favoring the powerhouses like the Lakers or Celtics  3+ step layup/dunks.  And my favorite – goodbye floppers!

While I never want to advocate the locked out referees be permanently replaced, fresh blood isn’t a bad thing.

17 of the N.B.A.’s current referees began as replacements. That group that includes some of the league’s most respected referees, as well as some of its most controversial.

Source:  Hoopinion

Also, replacements should bring a greater objectively as they don’t carry decades worth of NBA bias.  Consequently, once the lockout ends, the NBA should maintain strict standards in officiating.  Those that fail to meet expectations should be displaced by one of those replacements.