The Etroit Pistons?
It is truly rare to be able to sense a catastrophic event before it happens. However, for those carefully attuned to the recent offseason developments in the NBA, Detroit seems poised on the brink of the abyss.
Talk about piling on. It’s no secret that Detroit is in trouble in these oh-so-tough economic times (median sale price for a house in Detroit these days is $8,000; and no, that number is not missing any zeroes).
But taking a step back and examining the moves the Pistons have made to assemble the 2009-10 Pistons, it is clear that the old Pistons are truly gone. With Rasheed Wallace and Chauncey Billups gone, the perennial Eastern Conference Finalists have been forever changed, and most certainly for the worse.
It is understandable that Joe Dumars and the Pistons wanted change. After so much disappointment and so many letdowns following their 2004 NBA Championship, it was inevitable that they would overhaul their roster. But change for the sake of change is not improvement and that is exactly what the Pistons’ roster moves have felt.
The point of any change is to make the team better. Any roster move (applies to both fantasy and real life) that does not make the team better, either in the present or future, was a bad move.
So let’s break down the Pistons’ offseason moves to see if there is reason to believe this team has improved during the 2009 offseason.
Coaching Change
After a disappointing 2008-09 season, rookie head coach Michael Curry was canned in favor of another rookie head coach, John Kuester. But what do we know about John Kuester and can we expect his tenure to be different from Curry’s rookie season as a coach?
Kuester has a long track record as an assistant coach in the NBA, including working for Hall of Fame Head Coach Larry Brown on the Pistons’ 2004 championship squad and for Brown’s entire tenure as head coach in Philadelphia. More recently, Kuester worked with the Pistons’ Eastern Conference rival the Cleveland Cavaliers under head coach Mike Brown.
Kuester’s most recent, and most famous role was of Mike Brown’s offensive coordinator with the Cavaliers last season, a season that saw the team jump from 19th (and a very ugly 19th, at that) in offensive efficiency to fourth last season with Kuester joining Cleveland’s ranks.
Yes, the Cavaliers enjoyed a solid season from new addition Mo Williams, Lebron James improves, and the club also got a full year’s run out of Delonte West; but the shape of the Cleveland offense was markedly different with Kuester on board, something you couldn’t completely pin on personnel changes and internal development. Kuester had these guys in the right places.
Source: Yahoo!
No doubt about it, the 2008-09 Cavaliers were much better offensively than the 2007-08 version. That is a statistical fact. What is up for debate is how much of that is due to the continued development of Lebron James, how much is due to the addition of Mo Williams and first full season of Delonte West and how much is due to Kuester’s X’s and O’s.
Watching Cleveland’s offensive sets last season, basically every play revolved around putting the ball in Lebron’s hands and clearing out the lane. Lebron was the primary playmaker and rarely played off the ball, where his athleticism allows him to be deadly. Don’t underestimate the impact of the addition of Mo to the Cavalier’ success. With Williams on board, James had another guy he could trust to take big shots and initiate the offense instead of relying solely on himself.
One word is notably absent from discussions of Kuester’s assistant coaching gigs: defense. With all of his experience assisting Coach Larry Brown, you hope that Brown’s defensive philosophy has rubbed off on Kuester. For defense more so than any other factor is going to be the key to the fate of the Pistons’ 2009-10 season. And that is mainly due to the roster changes that were made over the last few months in Detroit.
Roster Changes
The current Detroit roster marks the start of the new era (i.e. end of the Rasheed Wallace era in Detroit).
Out: Rasheed Wallace; Allen Iverson; Antonio McDyess; Amir Johnson; Arron Afflalo; and Walter Herrmann.
In: Charlie Villanueva; Ben Gordon; Chris Wilcox; and Ben Wallace.
Rookies: Austin Daye; Deron Washington.
With all the changes, the depth chart looks fairly different from last season. (Not seeing Sheed on the Pistons roster just seems strange; beware).
PG: Rodney Stuckey, Will Bynum
SG: Richard Hamilton, Ben Gordon, Deron Washington
SF: Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye
PF: Charlie Villanueva, Jason Maxiell
C: Chris Wilcox, Kwame Brown, Ben Wallace
The main problem with the Pistons new makeup is that most of the players they lost were known to be decent defenders, especially Wallace and McDyess. And the players they took on, Villanueva, Gordon and Wilcox, are not known for being great defenders (to be politically correct). But that is all opinion.
What do the numbers say?
In trying to compare the outgoing players, offensive and defensive efficiencies are useful for comparing players on different teams that play at different paces, which can skew raw statistics. Comparing the net difference between a player’s offensive efficiency (O-Rating) and defensive efficiency (D-Rating) to show their net impact on the court.
Looking at the minutes is very important when consulting statistics such as these because in general a small sample is much less reliable than a larger sample. It’s probably wise to take any advanced statistics with a grain of salt for any player who logged less than a thousand minutes. Like most statistics, the bigger the sample size the better.
First take a look at the players the Pistons have added to the roster.
*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.
| Incoming | O-Rating | D-Rating | Net | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Villanueva | 106 | 110 | -4 | 2095 |
| Ben Gordon | 107 | 107 | 0 | 2999 |
| Chris Wilcox | 108 | 108 | 0 | 1049 |
| Ben Wallace | 106 | 94 | 12 | 1314 |
And compare them to the outgoing players.
*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.
| Outgoing | O-Rating | D-Rating | Net | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasheed Wallace | 108 | 101 | 7 | 2123 |
| Allen Iverson | 105 | 105 | 0 | 1970 |
| Antonio McDyess | 106 | 103 | 3 | 1866 |
| Amir Johnson | 117 | 100 | 17 | 911 |
| Arron Afflalo | 106 | 108 | -2 | 1234 |
| Walter Herrmann | 112 | 110 | 2 | 633 |
On the face of it, the exchange of players seems like it would be a negligible difference (excluding players who played less than 1000 minutes last season). The incoming players are a combined +8 and the outgoing players are a combined +8 as well. Everything seems to be in perfect harmony, right?
Wrong.
There are two main reasons why: Ben Wallace and Chauncey Billups.
First, let’s deal with Big Ben. Wallace’s career is clearly on its last legs and thus he can be expected to play a rapidly diminishing role on the team as time progresses. As the single biggest positive on the incoming side, this means that the incoming +8 is actually skewed and is only positive solely because of Wallace.
The more bearish you are on Wallace’s future performance, the worse this exchange of players looks. To put it in perspective, the exchange made the Pistons defensively worse off in the medium and long term (-4 excluding Big Ben).
Continuing with the long term perspective, let’s revisit the franchise altering trade of Billups for Iverson. Yes, I know McDyess was a part of that trade but he ended up back with the Pistons after negotiating a buyout and returning to D-Town. So this trade was Billups for Iverson, straight up.
Using mathematical properties, we can substitute Billups for Iverson in the outgoing chart.
*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.
| Outgoing | O-Rating | D-Rating | Net | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasheed Wallace | 108 | 101 | 7 | 2123 |
| Antonio McDyess | 106 | 103 | 3 | 1866 |
| Arron Afflalo | 106 | 108 | -2 | 1234 |
| Amir Johnson | 117 | 100 | 17 | 911 |
| Walter Herrmann | 112 | 110 | 2 | 633 |
| Chauncey Billups | 118 | 106 | 12 | 2789 |
With the Billups effect accounted for as well, suddenly the outgoing players are a +20 (again excluding players with less than 1000 minutes) and the incoming players are either a +8 or -4 depending upon how you view the impact of Ben Wallace for both next season and the future. This gives the entire transaction a net impact of either a -12 overall or a shocking -24.
The Verdict
On paper, it appears that the Pistons’ recent makeover has actually made them worse off overall. The big x-factor will be rookie head coach John Kuester. Teams can overcome having poor defensive players on them through superb coaching. In some cases, however, the defensive liabilities are just too great to overcome. This might be one of those cases. But make no mistake, Kuester has a chance to be a truly great coach one day.
Regardless, it is clear that the 2009-10 Pistons have huge potential. Train wreck potential (see also Memphis Grizzlies, 2009-10). For the Pistons faithful, let’s just hope that Joe Dumars hasn’t taken the D out of Detroit once and for all.
September 29th, 2009 at 1:07 am
I think you’re being too kind in assessing Charlie V’s defense. I’m not an NBA coach – but really – a one eyed squirrel could spot the flaws in Charlie’s defensive ability. I think it’s depressing to hear people talk about how effective Charlie is at cleaning the glass and somehow equate those statistics to defensive prowess. Even Zach Randolph can average 10 boards a game… and he’s asleep most of the time when defending the half-court.
Charlie and others like him are more concerned about boxing out on the weak side to grab boards than actually filling lanes and playing team defense. did anyone (yes this is a stretch) watch a Bucks game last year? It’s so easy to see why Skiles was so hesitant to start Charlie over Mbah a Moute, and why he rarely used Charlie during crunch-time.
If an athletic player posts up on Charlie – he needs a teammate to help. If a player runs a screen and roll off of him, then either someone is going to get a clean jumper or someone is getting a layup. If a player drives anywhere near the lane, he should look for Charlie to be caught in no-man’s land and get an easy assist. But even if he doesn’t pass there is no fear of someone on the weak side sneaking in for a block. Charlie is absolutely worthless on defense.
You guys don’t believe me? Watch this one Youtube clip of Bucks vs Lakers. This is the horror show Bucks fans had to put up with last year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im3jRuUqLlg
0:11… Charlie just stands there looking stupid as he completely forgets that he’s supposed to be guarding Odom. Trust me, his defense gets worse. Much worse.
0:42… V gets caught up in transition and ends up picking up Kobe on the wing. I agree with the easy argument that this is a tough cover. But watch as Charlie just gives Kobe 7 feet of space for a pull-up J. Zero effort in the half-court after actually hustling back on transition. I just don’t understand.
1:07… Mbah a Moute gets isolated on Kobe and forces Kobe to his right towards 3 Bucks defenders. Watch V do “matador defense” as he gives Kobe access for a lay in. I’m not kidding – he literally steps out of Kobe’s path. If he had just stood there with his arms up, then he would have stopped the layup.
1:21… again on transition… Lamar starts a drive from the top of the arc with Charlie caught patrolling the lane. He makes no move cut off Odom even though he could could see Odom start to drive to the left. Instead Charlie moves to box out Gasol hoping for a rebound.
1:26… Ariza gets a wide open J. This open shot isn’t Charlie’s fault. What is Charlie’s fault is that he neglects to think about what just happened when Ariza released the shot. The Bucks were completely out of position to get a defensive board since Charlie vacated his box-out assignment (Odom) to dive at Ariza. So Charlie decides he’s going to go run a fast break while the Lakers score on an offensive board. It’s funny watching Charlie re-enter the camera view at 1:32.
1:34… To be honest I can’t tell what is going on here. The Bucks appear to be playing zone except Charlie is anchoring the paint. We see Elson come across the lane to pick up a cutting Gasol. What looks more likely here is that V moved to double-team Odom and got completely lost. Really. Analyze the play and try to figure out why Charlie is standing in the paint. It makes no sense.
1:40… okay so I don’t want to rip on Charlie V for this one… after all he’s caught trying to stop Kobe 1:1 on a fast break. But look at the score. Somehow the Bucks are up by 3 (how the Bucks are up at this point is troubling if you’re a Lakers fan). I don’t care if Charlie has 5 fouls – he needs to make a hard play for the ball and show the Bucks won’t play dead. This play just punctuates the lack of intensity… and it all goes downhill after this.
1:59… I am just flabbergasted that Skiles doesn’t get fired after games like this. The Bucks are still up by 2 with 8:00 left. But inexplicably, they have no Center on the cuort to match up with Gasol for the. W. T. F. But phil Jackson is no dummy. He posts up Gasol on Mbah a Moute and compltely vacates the strong side. Are the Bucks on the weak side smart enough to help Mbah a Moute and double Gasol the moment he gets the ball on the block? (hint: the answer is no). This is just sad. sad. sad. sad.
2:09… The exact same thing happens a few seconds later, but this time Charlie V is iso’ed on Gasol. This isn’t an example of Charlie V doing a horrible job (although remember that Charlie is 6-11 while Mbah a Moute is 6-8). I’m just reinforcing the fact that I hate what I’m watching as the Bucks blow a game they could have won.
2:27… this one is subtle. Charlie V is tasked with picking up Gasol 22 feet from the basket. Under normal situations I’d say that Charlie can give Gasol a pretty big cushion. Except Charlie V can (or at least he should be able to see/hear) see that Charlie Bell just got owned on a hard cut by Kobe. Heck, Kobe could have pushed off. But either way… Charlie makes no effort to push up on Gasol in order to make it harder for Pau to dish the ball. Simply, Charlie doesn’t do the subtle things to help his team.
Multiply this debacle by 82 and you’ll see why Charlie V sucks on defense. Maybe the Pistons will go with a “what defense?” attitude like the Knicks/Warriors and this is a moot point. But it’s not an opinion that Charlie V is horrible on defense. It is a fact.
September 29th, 2009 at 2:04 am
I just want to explain some things that were just pointed out to me.
At 0:11 It could be argued that Charlie is helping his teammate who vacated Gasol when they doubled on Kobe. But I still contend this is a lapse on V. This is because Charlie is caught in no-man’s land, and his cover is on the strong side of the court. The correct defensive response is that RJ is responsible for switching over from the weak side, and indeed you can see that RJ slides over. If RJ had stayed at home then I’d say this was a no-win situation for Charlie and it was unfair to pick on him.
At 1:26 I have no problem with Charlie making a move at Ariza to contest the jumper. What I am saying is that Charlie should have stayed on defense and switched to cover Ariza once the Lakers got the offensive rebound. Unfortunately he was more preoccupied with trying to get a layup on a fast break that didn’t happen. Had Charlie stayed back, the Lakers would have had to reset instead of Ariza cutting in for a layup.
At 1:40 I said I didn’t want to Rip on Charlie. I take that back. I really wanted to rip on Charlie.
At 1:59 it seems there are 3 Bucks who are all equally horrible at defense. But I am still singling out Charlie V as the biggest failure here. He’s the closest weak-side defender when it’s clear that Gasol is about to take Mbah a Moute to school. Charlie V is the player that should have moved in to aid Mbah a Moute with baseline help. The Bucks as a team shouldn’t have even waited for Gasol to start making moves – they should have closed on him when he got the ball. Yes, there was a risk that Gasol would pass out of a double to find an open player; but then that’d be a lapse in team defense overall – not something that I would blame on Charlie.
September 29th, 2009 at 4:34 am
Nice breakdown John. You got a hobby dawg?
September 29th, 2009 at 8:54 am
@Reno: LOL — John-o’s comment definitely gets the award for longest comment in BFFA history.
@John-o: 1:07 “I’m not kidding – he literally steps out of Kobe’s path. If he had just stood there with his arms up, then he would have stopped the layup.”
That was my favorite one. He literally runs out of Kobe’s way.
1:26 – CV running back into the frame is great.
1:34 – LMAO at CV in the middle totally confused.
Great breakdown, John-o. If I ever need some video analysis, I think I know who to turn to.
For the record, I wasn’t trying to be too kind on old Charlie. I was trying to let the numbers do the talking instead of my observations. I had NBA league pass last year so I unfortunately watched 15-20 Bucks games and did pick up on exactly how awful CV is defensively. What I found really telling about the whole situation was the fact that the Bucks didn’t even extend CV a qualifying offer for fear that he might actually stay in MIL.
For the record, I think Ben Gordon is almost as bad defensively as CV (although really tough to be worse than Charlie; you would probably have to try to be worse defensively than CV). That is why this team is headed for disaster unless Kuester can pull off a coaching miracle.
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