Sleeper: Kelenna Azubuike
It’s never easy to recommend a Golden State Warrior as a potential sleeper candidate (see Nelson, Don). But despite the schizophrenic coach, Kelenna Azubuike (SG/SF) looks primed to follow-up last season’s mini-breakout campaign with another solid fantasy season.
Over the past few seasons, the Warriors have had a pretty erratic run. They soared to new heights after knocking off the 67-15 (.817) Dallas Mavericks in the 2007 Playoffs. A year later they lost star guard Monta Ellis (PG/SG) in a moped accident for all but 25 games of the 2008-09 season. They don’t call him Moped Monta for nothing.
Infamous forward Stephen Jackson (SG/SF) even rehabilitated his career image in the Bay after the Malace in the Palace. Hell, he even became a team captain of the Warriors. And now, even Jack’s fed up with Nelson and all of his antics and has publicly demanded a trade out of basketball purgatory.
Warriors coach Don Nelson told ESPN.com that he has no plans to strip Jackson of his captaincy in the wake of Jackson’s recent disclosure that he wants to be traded to Cleveland, New York or one of the three Texas teams.
It has been widely speculated since Jackson’s comments that the Warriors would seek to trade him — less than a year after awarding him a three-year contract extension worth $28 million early last season — but Nelson confirmed in a brief conversation Monday that “Jack is still my cap.”
“I’ve talked to him,” Nelson said as he prepared to travel to Chicago for the annual preseason meeting of the National Basketball Coaches Association.
“I don’t anticipate any problems.”
Source: ESPN
Before you get too high on S-Jax next season, it is important to remember who we are dealing with here. Don Nelson is the undisputed king of subterfuge and the bait and switch in the NBA.
I don’t anticipate any problems.
Interpreting the Nellie speak, it is clear that Jackson’s days are numbered as a Warrior. That much is crystal clear from Nelson’s thinly veiled threats on Jackson’s well being.
I don’t anticipate any problems getting rid of his body.
One thing’s for sure, the Golden State Warriors certainly know how to keep their basketball interesting.
Amidst all the turmoil playing for the league’s most fickle coach, Azubuike has quietly improved in each of his first three seasons in the Association. Last season, his per-36 minutes stats were pretty nice and understated, in a roto-friendly kind of way.
He averaged 16.1 points on .464/.808 percent shooting, 1.4 threes, 5.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.4 turnovers. What is nice to see is his defensive production and he even has three/block/steal club potential with good percentages from the field and line.
Pretty decent baseline for next season’s production.
Regardless of whether Jackson is a Warrior or not, Azubuike is slated to get over thirty minutes per game, which is enough for him to be fantasy relevant in most formats. Last season, in 32.1 minutes per game, Azubuike’s averages were good for 72nd overall in per game value and 67th overall in cumulative value according to Basketball Monster (he appeared in 74 games last season).
Not bad for a guy whose average draft position so far this season is an absurd 151st overall (Buser Sports) and a Yahoo! O-Rank of 158th overall.
Regardless of whether or not Stephen Jackson remains a Warrior next season, Kelenna will have solid fantasy value, and seems to be a good across-the-board value pick. But if you are one the managers that drafts Azubuike (or handcuffs him to S-Jax) and Jackson heads for greener pastures, you’ll end up getting mid-level production out of a late round selection. And in fantasy basketball, there is nothing more valuable than being able to find and draft guys that outproduce their draft position.
September 16th, 2009 at 2:05 am
I am not sure if I am entirely sold. Even if SJax leaves the City by the Bay, the rotation could shake out like this (assuming a trade brings in no swingmen):
PG: Monta Ellis/Stephen Curry
SG: Kelenna Azubuike/Anthony Morrow
SF: Corey Maggette/Devean George
Still fairly deep, but I was totally unaware of his Francisco Garcia and Shane Battier-esque 1/1/1. It makes Buike seem like a new and improved Jason Richardson. Still, AR was not the only Anthony to have a nice outing in the Summer League, and George is still a solid vet.
September 16th, 2009 at 8:47 am
I agree that it is still hard to tell what will play out and Golden States’ depth chart is always fluid. But if he gets 30 minutes a night, he will be fantasy relevant.
I think Morrow is a real threat to eat into KA’s minutes but like I said in the beginning of the post it is really hard to recommend one of Don Nelson’s players as a sleeper.
The reason I am willing to recommend KA is because of his ADP. Being so low, you can take a late round flier on him. If it doesn’t pan out, dump him a few weeks into the season for a hot pickup off the waiver wire.
September 16th, 2009 at 10:16 am
True. Looks like I’ll be looking to draft him now thanks to you haha.
September 16th, 2009 at 11:18 am
KA is definitely not a bad gamble because he can be had so late. Grab him in round 12 and dump him early in the season if he doesn’t pan out. If he works out, gravy.
September 17th, 2009 at 12:18 am
Definitely worth a round 12 pick, but not a ranking in the 70s. He may start at SG and play 30+ a night, but Jack, Morrow and Randolph could well be the starters leaving KA fighting for bench minutes with Curry and Maggette. He only got PT last year because of injuries, plus he tends to be a black hole on offence, so I really don’t think he’s one of Nellie’s favourites.
But hey, its Nellie, so who knows?
September 17th, 2009 at 4:52 am
how did you get any inclination that jack’s days are numbers in gstate from what nellie said?? you’re really overblowing nellie’s antics here. just because he’s been a headcase as a coach doesn’t change how jax is valued in the open market. his contract makes him very difficult to deal, even if the warriors were actively looking to do so (which i don’t even think is the case). buke is a nice value pick anywhere past 100th overall but you can offset any potential jack deadline talk with the return of monta and the development of AR. gotta look at things from all angles here.
September 17th, 2009 at 8:34 am
@Andrew: I agree that KA will not be touching a ranking of 70s this season but I think he should definitely outperform his ADP. Part of the reason is his defensive production, which is often overlooked. I probably have underestimated how much Randolph/Morrow are going to eat into KA’s minutes but I don’t think Curry should eat into KA’s minutes. Curry will take most of Crawford’s minutes and Ellis might even sop some of those up as well.
Wait, I thought Nellie loved anyone who was a black hole on offense?
@jphan: A lot of what I said about Nellie was trying to be tongue in cheek (fail). I don’t really think that Jack will get moved. But I think it is worth taking a late round flier on KA just in case, especially if you drafted SJ already and have a deep bench. Like you said though, I probably should have made it a point to state exactly how unlikely the chances of SJ getting moved are.
I’m not really worried about Monta’s return and how it affects KA because I think he gets a piece of Crawford’s minutes (he played 38.6 minutes per game). But, like I said earlier, I probably underestimated the impact that Randolph’s breakout will have on Buke and how much he will eat into KA’s minutes.
Thanks for the comments, Andrew/Justin. Someone’s gotta keep me honest!
September 18th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
yeah the point on monta and AR was its effect on buke’s spot on the offensive totem pole, not the minutes.
September 19th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
Good point, Justin. But I could still see KA having some fantasy value even if he gets knocked down the offensive totem pole. If his efficiency from the field increases as his points per game drop and he maintains his defensive production, he would still have a nice all-around line (minus assists) for a late round pick.
Do you agree with that assessment or think that KA is going to be unrosterable next season?