Basketball Free For All

It was just two short months ago that the basketball world stood still, as one of the most shocking and unexpected stories broke –- Trevor Ariza was going to be a Houston Rocket.

OK, so it isn’t Yao Ming and his career threatening foot injury, or LeBron James blatantly talking about hinting that he might be looking somewhere other than Cleveland to set up court in 2010 (pardon the pun). But listening to all the hype, you would have thought that Trevor Ariza going to the Rockets was breaking news.

Hot off the presses type stuff. Ariza was the new media darling. And with that title came all the scrutiny and analysis of his decision to leave the World Champions.

Was it the right thing to do? Was he really feeling under appreciated in the locker room?

Or was he a victim of his own hype, all the while listening to his agent,  the “other” David Lee, dangle both virtue and dollar signs in front of him at the same time – “it was never about the money;” Lee said when interviewed, “it was about respect.”

Respect.

Fast-forward two months. LeBron James has “officially” put Dunk-gate to rest. Yao’s foot is miraculously healing well enough that he may even be able to come back as early as April of this season. And the Rockets, even though they are in rebuilding mode, are looking forward to a fast-paced, up-tempo, exciting brand of ball, while being led by the likes of Luis Scola and Shane Battier. One Houston beat writer even commented that Aaron Brooks might even be the Man.

Wait a minute! What ever happened to Trevor Ariza?

With positive medical news for both Tracy McGrady and Yao, the Trevor Ariza drama has simply vanished. Talk about respect. No more glitz and glamor, no more spotlight.

So what does this mean for Ariza, and more importantly for his impact in Houston?

There’s no denying the potential is there. As a bench guy, Ariza’s impact in L.A. was minimal. But towards the end of last season, when he became a starter, he excelled in a way that he had not done since, well… ever. Looking at splits, Ariza started 20 games for the Lakers averaging 10.1 points on .479/.806 percent shooting, 4.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.1 turnovers per start.

His free throw percentage was actually fantastic considering the fact that he’s a career .661 percent free throw shooter. His 1.9 steals per game made him a defensive lock. And he did this all with only 28 minutes per game. Just thinking about what he could do with the consistent 30 plus minutes a night he should see in Houston makes fantasy owners drool with anticipation.

But that’s fantasy –- reality is a bit less cut-and-dry here.

First off, Ariza’s coming to a Rockets team that is missing its two All-Atar mainstays. Yao will be out indefinitely, that much we know – what we don’t know is what he’ll be like when he comes back. Common sense dictates that Yao should be fine, and he should come back strong for next season. Of course, common sense also dictated that Ariza stay in L.A., and that sure didn’t happen!

Then there’s the McGrady factor. Knee-Mac T-Mac is coming off a knee injury that kept coming back, eventually causing him to shut it down in the middle of February last season. He’s been working out with Chicago trainer Tim Grover (so hot right now), and all indications are that he’s ahead of schedule. Listening to the Rocket’s General Manager Daryl Morey you might even think he may be ready for the season opener.

Rockets general manager Daryl Morey was in Chicago recently, checking on the progress of Tracy McGrady. Morey told the Houston Chronicle that McGrady looked very good, and is “way, way ahead of schedule.”

“He’s already playing,” Morey said. “I don’t think anyone could have predicted he would be playing now. He still has a long way to go. There is a lot of rust to shake off.”

Source: Sporting News via Yahoo! Sports

So what do these two situations have to do with Trevor Ariza?

Well, nothing really – and then a lot.

Fantasy-wise, Ariza takes a hit offensively with a healthy Yao and T-Mac on the floor at the same time. But even though he loses offensive touches, it won’t cut into his playing time, so his defensive production should be as good or better than it was in L.A.

But given the circumstances of the upcoming season, Ariza should see a huge bump in value. It’s very possible that all of his stats could go up, with the exception of maybe field goal percentage. This loss in field goal efficiency could be due to the fact that he’s likely to take more shots than he usually would (thus taking worse shots) while also facing more defensive pressure than he’s ever faced in his five year career.

If he can keep his free throw shooting percentage up in the high seventies or low eighties, he becomes a very attractive pick-up who could give a fantasy team points,  threes, as well as those ever-elusive steals.

But if Trevor Ariza takes it upon himself to try and be the Man in Houston, those solid numbers that many are all expecting could go by the wayside. They may not even happen at all. And listening to some in the media, that may not be too far fetched of an idea. Two months ago, it was fresh on everyone’s mind:

Ariza’s only NBA mistake occurred this week, when he followed the lead of his misguided agent, David Lee. By joining the Rockets as a miscast free-agent star, the kid now faces the possibility of a career filled with disillusionment and mediocrity, not to mention anonymity.

Source: Los Angeles Times

And there’s where the reality sets in.

Ariza will not, and probably should not, be the main focus in Houston. That’s simply not his game. Once McGrady and eventually Yao return, Ariza should settle into a role of defensive stopper while providing outside shooting and slashing. It should be very similar to the role he had in L.A. with one exception – he’ll be seeing starter’s minutes. Quality starter’s minutes, not just the 28 minutes per game he got in Los Angeles. That is how Ariza flourishes on the basketball court.

Regardless of all the hype, regardless of all the mixed messages being sent by the Rockets, Ariza and the media, the bottom line is that fantasy owners need to enjoy it while it lasts, because Trevor Ariza may never have a better situation. Rocket fans, however, will need to understand that this team is going to struggle with everything –- winning, losing, identity — the whole nine yards.

But after this season, when the dust has settled and we’re all talking about the 2010 free agent class, Houston will have gained a valuable young role player and a proven Champion. It will be remarkably similar to Ariza’s role in L.A., except he’ll be starting and playing more than 28 minutes per night. And that will definitely be a great thing for him, for Rockets fans and for fantasy managers alike.

It’s all going to come down to how he responds. How he plays this season.

His actions and attitude will dictate whether people, both fantasy players and fans, take note of Trevor Ariza. Whether they file him away for future reference or put him on the top of their cheat sheets.

Whether or not by this time next year, they’ll be asking that same question.

Trevor who?