Bulls Eye!
Photo by Matthew West
Chicago’s veteran center Brad Miller was acquired from Sacramento last February in a trade that also netted fellow playoff standout and fantasy waiver wire standout John Salmons. In return, the Bulls sent Andres Nocioni and Drew Gooden. Both players would play vital roles in what would become one of the greatest, and longest, playoff series of all time.
That series was really a coming out party for Salmons. Prior to the trade to Chicago, Salmons had been wallowing in basketball hell.Where is basketball hell, you ask? Of course it’s Memphis Charlotte Sacramento.
In his first significant minutes in the playoffs of his career (the eight games with the Sixers don’t count; he only played 20 minutes total), Salmons proved that he deserves a starting spot on a contender in the NBA. And at 29 years of age, it couldn’t have come at a better time. Salmons (more or less) maintained his regular season averages of 18 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists. However, his efficiency from the field suffered. This is most likely a result of playing the Boston Celtics, which is known for having one of the better defenses in the league (good for second in the league in terms of defensive efficiency in 2008-09), despite Kevin Garnett’s absence.
Beyond the numbers, what was really impressive about Salmons from watching the Bulls-Celtics series was his composure, execution under pressure and hustle on both ends of the floor during the series. He played as a veteran should, despite it being his first (real) appearance on the national stage, and his play warrants universal recognition and respect among basketball fans and analysts.
Salmons’ teammate in both Sacramento and Chicago has faced a similar combination of disrespect and neglect throughout his career. At his prime, Miller was an All-Star caliber center, although not one of the top tier big men. From the recent aforementioned playoff series, Miller is most likely remembered for getting mugged by Boston’s Rajon Rondo in crunch time. And then also for subsequently bonking two free throws. It’s hard to blame the guy as he was visibly shaken from the flagrant foul hard foul from Rondo and subsequent medical treatment.
But people often overlook his follow-up performance in Game Six: 25 points while shooting 8 for 9 from the field, 2 for 2 from deep and 5 for 5 from the charity stripe. Oh, and he also chipped in 10 boards, 1 assist, 0 steals and 2 blocks with four turnovers. And Salmons also dropped 35 in that same game, which would end up being a one point victory for the Celtics extending the series to a much anticipated and ultimately slightly disappointing Game Seven in Boston.
After close examination of Miller’s advanced statistics, it is clear that he is quite valuable to the Bulls. According to 82games’ statistics by position, Miller was good for a +7.4 PER advantage per-48 minutes than his counterpart on opposing teams. Compare Miller’s net gain with Drew Gooden’s positional statistics from last season while playing for the Bulls. At the power forward position, Gooden was a -4.4 PER drain on the team and an even worse -5.8 when playing the center position. Considering that these two players were swapped in the same trade, the statistical difference becomes even more clear.
Miller’s on/off court statistics from his time in Chicago were impressive as well. The on/off court statistics from 82games provides a comparison for how the team performs with a certain player on the court and how they performed without a player on the court. On a per-48 minute basis, the Bulls had a net gain of +7.2 points per-100 possessions. Chicago also had a net gain of +2.1 defensive rebounds per 100 possessions. In terms of per-100 possessions, these gains are actually quite significant.
In a nutshell, Game Six helps illustrate how valuable both Salmons and Brad Miller can be in the right system and with the right supporting cast. In hindsight, it is quite clear that Chicago hit the bulls eye with the trade that netted them Miller and Salmons from the Kings.
August 25th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
From a fantasy point of view, Salmons looks very promising this season. Miller, though, I’m not sure of – he’s not getting any younger and I worry about the potential for injuries if he played long minutes.
There’s talk of Deng playing some PF, which if true would mean less time for Noah at PF and Miller at C. A lot also depends on whether TT improves too, which is always an enigma.
Anyway, nice article, lots of food for thought
August 26th, 2009 at 9:33 am
Andrew, good point: I probably should have gone more in depth into their individual fantasy values next season. I think you are right on the money about Salmons. According the the average draft position the Buser pulled together, he is getting taken around 76th overall. He easily outperformed that last season (in both per game and cumulative value) and will do so again. I am very bullish on Salmons next season.
Regarding Miller, not so much. He is being drafted late (131st) and that is definitely where he should go. Chicago has depth with Noah, Thomas and Miller, plus Deng possibly grabbing some spot minutes at the four and you are right to be skeptical of Miller. However, he is still a decent option for 11 points, 8 boards and 3 assists. If one of the other bigs go down, Miller would definitely get an increase in value.
TT: I won’t touch this guy anymore. Too inconsistent in my book. I love Noah for next season; he pulls boards down like a maniac. I also like Deng to have a bounce back year next season, hopefully putting up the efficient lines from a couple of years ago.
August 27th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Well written, Phil. For this upcoming season, I am a bit concerned that Salmon’s shot regresses some. First, guy connected on over 41% of his 3’s last season. Prior to that, he broke 35% just once. Second, his scoring and consequently his FG% are REALLY becoming dependent on his jumper (just check out 82games from last year on the Bulls, the Kings and the year before). Hopefully when that jumper is off, he’ll remember to make a conscious effort to take it to the rim.
Love Miller. Is there a better 2nd string Center in the league who fits like a glove with their offense?
August 27th, 2009 at 9:54 pm
Not really endorsing this theory yet but could Salmons’ high 3PT% be due to his team makeup instead of something Salmons is doing? To rephrase, perhaps Salmons is getting the most open looks he’s ever gotten before? I think it is fair to say that this is the first team that Salmons has played big minutes for that is actually pretty decent. Chicago definitely has some depth.
Salmons’ shooting details is definitely interesting (gotta love 82 games). The trend towards more jumpshots is definitely noticeable. I can always count on Red to look deeply at the numbers, which is definitely awesome. But did you notice that as the percentage of jumpshots increased, so too did his effective FG%?! I don’t really have an explanation, just found it interesting. I’d definitely be interested to hear your take on that aspect. I also noticed that the assisted percentage went up as well, which gives me a clue as to why his efg% might have gone up as well…
The only other second string centers I like as much as Miller arew Przybilla (awesome low post defense) and Gortat (wishing he was in DAL next season). I love Miller’s game and I think it’s a shame more people don’t respect him more.
August 27th, 2009 at 11:50 pm
Yeah, I did notice the eFG%. Obviously his confidence was high and much of it was due to what you stated – probably got a bunch of excellent looks. No doubt having Rose create and really draw defenses towards him helped. Also, the Bulls really finished the season on a high. Rose and Gordon both played well down the stretch so it seems the whole team was riding a high?
I’m not really trying to shoot down the possibility of another similar year out of Salmons but you’ve gotta wonder. First, can the Bulls build on last season? Young team had some success – will it translate into this year? Second, I REALLY believe having Gordon on the opposite side of the floor helped. Defenses had to swarm him on the perimeter. With Rose doing his thing, Salmons seemed to have benefited from such lethal backcourt mates. With Gordon gone, I feel all those open looks are going to dwindle. Bulls will have no other deadly outside shooter (until Hinrich comes into games). Third, we really don’t know Salmons mental makeup – how will he endure adversity? Is he a guy who succeed under pressure? Salmons seemed to be the guy in the shadows last season, but now it’s his show from the perimeter. The Bulls are expected to be in playoff contention – something the Kings never did. Gordon took a lot of shots from Chicago fans/media for a lot of poor shooting nights. It didn’t really deter him. He kept on putting them up. If Salmons hits a rough patch, how will he react?
August 31st, 2009 at 10:19 pm
The missing Gordon argument is a valid one. That’s for sure. I expect Rose to step up and fill some of Gordon’s role, Pargo to pick some slack (he is certainly not gun shy; that much is for sure), and a resurgent Deng to fill some of the role. I also expect Salmons to fill some of Gordon’s old role as well. I truly do expect a team effort. But, I don’t think Gordon’s departure will have such a negative affect on Salmons’ efficiency and overall production.
However, the difference between your viewpoint and mine is how we interpret Salmons’ career path. For me, Salmons is a guy who has worked his way into a major role on a playoff team. He plays with a chip on his shoulder from always being doubted. He had an opportunity due to injury (increased minutes) and he made the most of it becoming at first a waiver wire wonder and secondly a household name in casual NBA circles after the Boston-Chicago series. The guy’s a winner and I fully expect him to step up and rise to the challenge.
I don’t think your view of his career trajectory is quite as positive. I could be wrong though (on all counts). Only time will tell on this one and I think, honestly, it could go either way. Remind me about this one near the end of next season. It will be an interesting re-visit.
September 7th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
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