Basketball Free For All

Sorry for the delay guys, but there was a football game yesterday and it happened to include my favorite team – the New Orleans Saints.  With their monumental win, there had to be an equally impressive celebration on my part.  Laissez le bon temps rouler!

As you’ll notice with this upcoming week’s schedule, it’s a short week (yeah it’s the All-Star game!)  In addition, NBA teams will be pressured to make a trade or two with the deadline less than two weeks away.  Likewise, you should be making your final adjustments with your fantasy lineups.  Whether you’re looking to add extra firepower for the upcoming playoffs, improve on a category or two or just looking to upgrade possible keepers, now is the time to act.

Week Sixteen Schedules

Four Games: NONE

Three Games:  ORL

Two Games: ATL, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, LAC, LAL, MIA, MIL, MIN, NJN, NOH, PHI, POR, SAC, SAS, UTA

One Game:  BOS, HOU, IND, MEM, NYK, OKC, PHX, TOR, WAS

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Taj Gibson (SF/PF – 11%) – With Tyrus Thomas continuing to fall out of favor, look for Taj to maintain his solid run.  Sure he’s dealing with plantar fasciitis, but this injury has been with him since the summer and it looks like it won’t knock him out like it did Joakim Noah.  Consequently, expect him to have strong rebounding/block games many a night with the occasional solid FG% and points.

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 27%) – The last six games, Ryan has averaged 14.2 points (on 53.6 FG% and 76.9 FT%), 2.5 3ptm, 4.0 rebounds, 1.0 steals and a minuscule .3 TO’s.  With the Timberwolves riding a previously thought impossible 4 game winning streak, look for his usage to continue to be solid.

George Hill (PG/SG – 29%) – Sure Tony Parker may be back, but it appears it isn’t going to dent Mr. Hill too much as Popovich will continue to start him at SG.  Case in point, the last two games, he’s averaged 33.5 minutes which includes 19 points and 2.5 3ptm per contest.  Usually he’s also good for solid percentages and a few defensive numbers.

Antonio McDyess (PF/C – 21%) – Nothing flashy here, but if you’re interested in consistent rebounds and FG% with almost zero turnovers, Antonio is your man.  His last 7 game average:  10.4 points (on 56.5 FG%), 6.7 rebounds and .7 TO’s.  If he’s truly feeling in better condition, I also expect his defensive numbers to pick up somewhat.  However, just be sure to temper expectations just a bit.  He plays next to Tim Duncan plus I don’t see any reason why Popovich won’t continue to give the bench solid minutes (DeJuan Blair, Matt Bonner).

CUT LIST (No need to shed a tear)

Lou Williams (PG – 61%) – Provided Allen Iverson’s kid was really sick and he returns, many owners should consider dropping Sweet Lou.  When Eddie Jordan has it out for you, you’re not going to play.  Just ask Elton Brand owner’s earlier in the year.  Or how about presently hopeful Marreese Speights‘ fans?  Even Willie Green is ahead of Williams at the moment so being the 4th Philly guard in the rotation for a team that has just won 4 straight, I don’t like his chances at solid fantasy production for at least the next few weeks.

WATCH LIST (Deep Leagues pounce, but standard leagues first weigh the options)

TJ Ford (PG – 31%) – TJ’s two game audition since his benching went VERY well over the weekend as he averaged 15.5 points (on 72.2 FG% and 100 FT%), 1.5 3ptm (!?!), 3.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.0 steals.  Jim O’Brien now faces a very difficult decision, but it’s hard to imagine TJ not being back in the rotation after his stellar play.  If you’ve got room, he makes for a solid speculative pick at this point.

Donte Greene (SG/SF – 5%) – Donte is relevant again (averaging over 31 minutes the last 5 games – 13.8 points, 1.4 3ptm and 5.2 boards), but it’s anyone’s guess as to how long it’ll last.  Personally, I don’t trust Paul Westphal much and neither should you.  Outside of Tyreke Evans and Kevin Martin, seems like everyone else must prove they deserve court time come each game.  Ride him if need be but be prepared to move on.

Ryan Hollins (PF/C – 4%) – Since moving into the starting lineup (4 games), Ryan has averaged 13.5 points (on 61.8 FG%) and 1.0 blocks but little else (3.5 rebounds – ick!)  He’s definitely worth a flier in deeper leagues but I’m very hesitant to recommend him in standard leagues.  Playing next to Al Jefferson and Kevin Love doesn’t leave too many paint scraps so expect this type of production to continue.

Ramon Sessions (PG – 23%) – Don’t look now, but Ramon is making a push for the majority of minutes at point guard in Minnesota.  The last eight games, Ramon has averaged 11.0 points (on 50 FG% and 81.5 FT%), 2.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.1 steals with only 1.3 TO’s.  It’s apparent to many fans that he should replace Jonny Flynn as the team’s starter as he gives them their best chance to win.  It’ll be interesting to see if Rambis gets the blessing by the front office to go this obvious route.

STAY THE COURSE (Don’t jump ship just yet)

Mike Conley (PG – 61%) – In a league or two, I’ve noticed fellow managers have jettisoned this Memphis point guard.  No doubt he’s strung together some very poor performances (5 game stretch:  7.2 points (on 27.1 FG%) 0 3ptm, 2.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists).  However, it should be taken with a grain of salt as I fully expect him to get back into the swing of things.  Conley has been an instrumental part of the Grizzlies resurgence this season and he’s not about to be benched in favor of either of their backup point guards.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIAL (Name(s) that could be flying under the radar in your deep league)

Rodrigue Beaubois (PG/SG – 1%) – This past week, Maverick’s coach Carlisle stated that Rodrigue would at least start getting all the backup minutes at point guard (move over JJ Barea).  Then, in the Maverick’s last game, the rookie almost helped the Mavericks beat the Timberwolves by putting up 17 points (on 6 of 10 from the field, 4 of 5 from downtown) and 2 steals. Looks like Phil was right to promote him this preseason!

The Mavs brass is almost as enamored of Beaubois’ attitude as his unique athleticism. And that’s saying something, considering the kid has a 6-10 wingspan, quickness that compared favorably with Devin Harris‘ during predraft tests and a 39-inch vertical leap.

Source:  ESPN

Anthony Tolliver (PF/C – 2%) – Yeah, we’ve been here before, but I still really like him.  This past Saturday, the Golden State Warriors decided to sign Anthony for the rest of the season while disposing of Speedy Claxton’s 5.2 million dollar expiring contract.  While a questionable choice for sure, it shouldn’t take away from how the organization thinks he’ll help this team the rest of the year.  Opportunity knocks!  Factoring in Nellie’s VladRad disdain, Tolliver not having to look over his back for a contract and more time to get comfortable in GSW, I think he’ll put up some very serviceable numbers throughout the rest of the year.

MYSTERY MAN

Ben Gordon (SG – 86%) – Although he’s admittedly still not 100%, Ben claims he is getting close.  A recent outburst of 26 points with 4 3ptm against Indiana seem to support this notion, but should you trust him?  I have a hard time saying yes.  Groin injuries for quite high jump shooters are a bad mix.  More importantly, as the article mentions, the playoffs most likely aren’t happening so why should Gordon continue to play with pain and suffer further setbacks?

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It appears much of the Hornets’ remaining season will hinge on Darren Collinson (Dimes) and Marcus Thornton (Buckets).  If you’ve followed the Hornets closely either at At The Hive or Hornets 247, you would have picked up on these novel but very appropriate nicknames given to New Orleans rookie back court.  However, if you haven’t, don’t worry, I’ll more than introduce you to the league’s best young yet mostly unknown duo.

AND

Pretty easy to remember, right?  If not, don’t worry, every fan is going to get to know them pretty quick as it was announced yesterday Chris Paul will indeed undergo arthroscopic knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus.  Although no formal timetable has been announced, it is believe CP3 will miss approximately one month.  In the past this was similar to armageddon for Hornet fans, but this season it’s not the case.  In the 11 games CP3 has already missed, the Hornets have gone 5-6.  During these games, Darren Collison has put up an averages of 14.6 points (on 40.4 FG% and 90.7 FT%), .7 3ptm, 8.4 assists, 3.4 rebounds and .9 steals.  Now that’s solid considering the Hornets took Dimes 21st in last year’s NBA draft!

Amid a little less hoopla, Marcus Thornton will also be heavily relied on to carry the team.  Prior to CP3’s injury, this was already the plan as the team traded away Devin Brown for cap relief just a week earlier.  So far through 6 starts, Buckets has averaged 19.7 points (on 46.2 FG% and 88.9 FT%), 2.7 3ptm, 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.2 TO’s, .8 steals and even .5 blocks.  In addition, I expect his non-scoring statistics to increase as well as he gets more comfortable in his role especially assists if he is forced to backup Dimes at the point.

So where did these guys sprout from?

Dimes comes from a very accomplished background.  Both of his parents are renowned track and field athletes.  His mother represented Guyana in the 1984 Summer Olympics while his father represented the same South American country in the Pan American Games.

At Etiwanda High School in California, he led the team to a 31-2 his senior season including a USA Today ranking of number 2 in the country.  He garnered some prestigious acclaim including being named a McDonald’s All American Top 40 and a Top 100 Sporting News Player.

At UCLA, Darren spent 4 full years (3 of which ended in Final Four runs) refining his skills posting averages of 11.5 points  (on 47.5 FG% and 85.1 FT%), 4.1 assists and 1.6 steals in just under 30 minutes.  After his junior season, he made the Associated Press’s third All American team and was named the Most Outstanding Player of the Pac-10 Tournament.

Coming out of college, Dimes simply wasn’t regarded as highly as other PG’s due to his physical size and unorthodox shooting style:

Weaknesses: His smaller size (body strength) makes it easy for bigger guards to have their way with him … Needs to hit the weight room and get stronger if he wants to hold his own at the next level … Has added some strength over the past few years, but it’s obvious he doesn’t have the body type to hold much muscle mass … Has a very unorthodox jumpshot that could make extending his range difficult. Also has a slow release due to his elaborate shooting motion … Must show that he can hit shots consistently at the NBA level, also needs to improve on his catch and shoot ability because right now most teams would look to sag off on him … Really needs to focus on using his smarts at the next level on the defensive end to make up for his small frame … Struggled to close out games in his senior year. Doesn’t appear to be a guy with great go-to ability … Lack of improvement in senior year brings his upside into question … While an above average on ball defender on the college level, concerns persist that bigger and stronger pro PGs will be able to exploit his lack of height and body strength …

Source:  NBA Draft Net

Not surprisingly, many scouts were not drooling over him as he seemed to lack the type of upside most teams want out of their picks.  As a Hornet’s fan, we say thank you!  We’ll take a guy who is the most experienced and winningest PG in the entire draft.  In his senior year, he had the 3rd highest FG% among his top peers and was the second best finisher with 1.26 points per possession.  He’s lightning quick (thanks mom and dad), regarded as a fantastic on the ball defender and a very good ball handler.  It’s no wonder he’s been able to step right into CP3’s enormous shoes and this team really hasn’t missed that much of a beat!

Marcus Thornton’s background isn’t shabby either.  While he doesn’t have famous athletic parents, his first cousin happens to be Al Thornton.  In addition, a ton of credit should go to one of his two brothers, Beanie who claims to have taught him that deadly jump shot.

While Buckets was a scoring machine at Tara High School in Baton Rouge, it was his play as a junior college player at Kilgore College that put him in the national spotlight.  In 2007, he was selected to be a first team All-American Junior College player by averaging 26.9 points and 6.5 rebounds.

The following year he turned down a host of renowned coaches including Bill Self of Kansas and Gary Williams of Maryland to attend his hometown school, LSU.  Buckets quickly became their best player as he averaged 19.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.4 steals.  He improved on those numbers in his final year of eligibility by racking up 21.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.6 steals.  He was named the Consensus SEC Player of the Year and was a Wooden Award Finalist.

Consequently, scouting reports glowed about his potential as a scorer at the next level, but many of them also felt he’d be nothing more than a role player:

Weaknesses: At 6-4 he is an undersized SG and does not have a great wingspan to make up for it … Athletically, he is decent, but will be facing more athletic players on a regular basis at the next level … Might have to become strictly a shooting specialist … Lacks the polish and natural game on the perimeter (he is not the most skilled player off the dribble) … Unless it’s off of a catch, he has a hard time creating separation using the dribble … Struggles finishing in the lane because he lacks the athleticism and body control to finish over the top of help defenses … His FT shooting has dipped to a subpar 74.5%, it may be a question of concentration, because he is far too good of a shooter to not shot over 80% … Because of his size, he may be a liability defensively, people will be able to shoot over top of him with ease (although his strength will definitely help) … Has moments where he looks strictly for his own shot, becoming predictable and hurting his team’s offense

Source:  NBA Draft Net

Well, lo and behold, Marcus fell all the way to the middle of the 2nd round as the 43rd player selected in last year’s NBA draft.  However, the Miami Heat were not very keen on him so they ended up trading him to the New Orleans Hornets.  Make this thank you numero duo!  All Marcus has done is prove he’s easily the Hornets most dynamic offensive threat not named CP3.  While he’s still working on his ball-handling, defense and playmaking abilities, most fans have no doubts he’ll continue to improve.

What should we expect the rest of the year?

It is supposed to be very rare for a team to have any success when they are led by one, let alone, two rookies in the backcourt.  Well, Dimes and Buckets failed to get that memo as they still have the Hornets on pace to make this year’s playoffs in the difficult Western Conference.  Not to take anything away from CP3, but it has been a revelation watching these two get after it to such a degree that has been infectious upon the rest of the squad.  Peja Stojakovic appears to be moving and cutting more akin to his days in Sacramento.  James Posey seems rejuvenated after his dreadful start to the year.  David West’s shoulders aren’t sagging since he’s not forced to carry the team during another CP3 absence.

I’m not going to go as far to say that we’ll make the playoffs regardless how many more games CP3 misses.  However, I do know this Hornet’s ballclub is now more than one or two players deep as evidenced by wins against Atlanta, Memphis and Phoenix with Chris on the sidelines.  Subsequently, they should better be able to handle typical adversity that tests most NBA teams during the course of a season.  So fans, stick together – the playoff picture hasn’t shut yet!

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Golden State Warriors fans had to be displeased watching Brandon Jennings take the League by storm right out of the gates this season knowing that their team passed him up to draft another promising young guard. However, they now understand why, as Stephen Curry has been playing at an incredibly high level amidst incredible adversity. Over the past month, Curry has posted first round value while averaging 19.5 points on .484/.879 percent shooting, 2.4 threes, 4.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.6 turnovers. Congratulations if you drafted Curry or snagged him off the wire early on in the season but this kid definitely deserves to be recognized for his outstanding play as of late.

Season Tracker

The season is 56 percent complete.

Week 15 Schedules

Four Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DEN, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIL, NJN, NOR, POR, SAC, WAS

Three Games: CHA, CLE, DAL, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, SAS, TOR, UTA

Two Games: MIN

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 37%) Since being included in last week’s preview post, Rush’s ownership rate has jumped eleven percent, meaning managers are starting to take notice and add him to rosters. If he is still available in any of your competitive leagues, now is your last chance to grab him. Over the past week, Brandon has averaged 14.8 points on .452/.800 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 5.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.4 blocks and 1.6 turnovers in 36.4 minutes per game. His response to being promoted into the starting lineup has been encouraging as evidence by the upward trend with his minutes. [TOR DET @MIL]

Drew Gooden (PF/C – 26%) For a third or fourth center, you can do a lot worse than Drew Gooden these days. Over the past six games, he has made a solid impact in limited minutes (22.4 per game). Over that span, he has averaged 11.4 points on .548/.833 percent shooting, 0.2 threes, 7.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Plus, Gooden is just one Erick Dampier injury away from seeing 35 minutes a night so stash him away if you can make room on your bench. [@UTA GSW MIN]

Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 20%) Since Devin Brown departed for the Windy City, Thornton has been on an offensive tear as the Hornets’ starting shooting guard. In the three games since, he has averaged 19.0 points on .556/.889 percent shooting, 3.0 threes, 2.7 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.0 turnovers.  Most importantly for New Orleans, two of these three games were wins so Marcus should be locked into the starting lineup for the foreseeable future. The rookie’s value comes from threes, points, field goal percentage, turnovers and free throw percentage so snag him if you need a scoring guard off of the waiver wire. [PHX OKC PHI @CHA]

George Hill (PG/SG – 20%) Hill’s been on our radar for a while now but the latest Tony Parker injury has really solidified his role over the next couple of weeks and makes him a good short-to-medium term play. In his ten starts this season, Hill has averaged 15.9 points on .472/.711 percent shooting, 1.2 threes, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.1 turnovers. The sophomore from IUPUI provides similar value to Thornton, although I’d probably roll the dice with Marcus first as his role looks more secure for the long term. [@SAC @POR @LAC]

Nicolas Batum (SG/SF – 6%) Batum has looked really good for the Trailblazers in the three games he’s played since returning from his shoulder injury. He’s played so well, in fact, that he has outplayed starter Martell Webster, who is playing at an extremely high level lately himself, and has many calling for him to be moved into the starting unit. This season, he has averaged 21.7 minutes per game, 11.3 points on .667/1.00 percent shooting, 1.0 threes, 4.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.7 turnovers. Before you rush right out and pick him up, consider a couple of factors. One, it was all done without Brandon Roy and two, head coach Nate McMillan loves his offensive spark off the bench. But if you have anyone you can safely cut at this point, Batum makes a nice prospect to stash on your bench. [CHA @UTA SAS LAL]

Watch List

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 30%) Butler just keeps getting it done this season and has been a mainstay of our weekly previews at BFFA this season. Over the past week, he put up top 75 value while averaging 12.3 points on .391/1.00 percent shooting, 1.5 threes, 2.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. On the season, he has posted cumulative value just outside the top 1oo and yet only has 30 percent ownership. Pick him up if you need a three point specialist who contributes slightly in the defensive categories without bringing turnovers. [@CHI @ATL SAS]

Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 28%) Just when you thought his early-season run was over, Ersan has quietly been putting up solid numbers again in limited minutes. Recently, Ilyasova has been seeing between 15 and 25 minutes per game and has posted some marginal lines, including a 15 point, 6 rebound effort against Philadelphia in only 20 minutes. Right now, all he needs is for his minutes to return and he’ll provide quality stats once again so keep him on your watch list until you see his minutes rise into the 30’s again. [@MIA @ORL @NYK IND]

Antonio McDyess (PF/C – 20%) The veteran big man is finally finding his niche in San Antonio and his production is increasing as a result. He has been moved back into the starting lineup during the past two games and has averaged 28.0 minutes per game, 14.0 points on .813/.400 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.0 steals, 0.5 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. Overall, he provides decent big man production off the wire so give him a look if you can handle his poor free throw percentage (albeit on low attempts). [@SAC @POR @LAC]

Goran Dragic (PG/SG – 17%) The Slovenian lefty has played the best basketball of his career lately and single-handily willed the Suns to a victory against the Golden State Warriors. He has also set (and then re-set his career high) in scoring (32 points) over the past few games. He is playing with a ton of confidence lately and has at times has led some extremely productive stretches for the Suns second unit. Watch Goran’s minutes closely over the next few games, as they have been in flux lately as the slumping Suns try and remember how to win basketball games. [@NOR @DEN @SAC]

Arron Afflalo (SG – 13%) It’s rare to find someone who is putting up top-60 value over the past month with such low ownership levels. However, Afflalo’s numbers don’t jump out at you but instead are based upon his efficient statistical line. Over the past month (14 games), Arron has averaged 29.3 minutes per game, 11.9 points per game on .517/.842 percent shooting, 2.2 threes, 3.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.4 blocks and 1.4 turnovers. Pick up AA if you need a nice boost in threes while providing positive value in the efficiency categories (field goal percentage, free throw percentage, turnovers). [SAC PHX @LAL @UTA]

Taj Gibson (SF/PF – 11%) If you are looking for help in boards and blocks, look no further than rookie Taj Gibson. Gibson has had decent stretches of fantasy value this season and at this point it is clear that he is ahead of Tyrus Thomas in Chicago’s pecking order. If you need proof, just peruse their respective game logs and compare their minutes in recent games. With TT’s contract expiring, it is clear they are trying to move him for another piece and that Gibson is a player they are trying to develop for the future. If Thomas gets moved and no big man comes back in the deal, Taj should see an increased role and will provide good value in boards and blocks going forward. [LAC @PHI @MIA ATL]

Ryan Anderson (SF/PF – 10%) Keep an eye on Ryan Anderson after Saturday night’s victory over the Atlanta Hawks. Anderson put up a decent line of 16 points on .636 percent shooting, 2 threes, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, o steals, 0 blocks and 0 turnovers. With the Magic under-performing and the wing rotation far from set in stone, head coach Stan Van Gundy could shake up the rotation and minutes with Ryan being a main beneficiary. [MIL WAS @BOS]

Deep League Special

Terrence Williams (SG/SF/PF – 8%) In deep leagues, finding top 100 value off the waiver wire can often be difficult and requires constant vigilance, foresight and some luck. Rookie Terrence Williams has been beginning to show some signs of life recently in New Jersey. On the season, his minutes have generally been trending downward. However, with nothing to play for except ping-pong balls this season, the Nets will increasingly give their young pieces more minutes. Scanning Williams’ game log, you begin to see some evidence of this with T-Will the Thrill getting 15 minutes, 30 minutes and 28 minutes in his last three games. With minutes, comes production so keep an eye on this situation or make a move if you are in a deep league. [DET @TOR @BOS @DET]

Keyon Dooling (PG – 2%) Never underestimate the injury-proneness of New Jersey’s Devin Harris, who is currently sidelined nursing a sore wrist. Harris has a history of taking extended periods of time off with weak injuries so Dooling’s run may be longer than initially expected. Keyon holds decent value for deep leagues with Devin ailing, averaging 9.3 points on .423/1.00 percent shooting, 1.3 threes, 2.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.0 blocks and 2.3 turnovers per game. [DET @TOR @BOS @DET]

Cut List

Mike Bibby (PG – 76%) It is pretty safe to say that Bibby’s best years (in fantasy and real life) are in the rear view mirror. However, many owners are still clinging to past memories instead of current production. Over the past month, Bibby has been outside of the top 200, with pedestrian averages of 24.9 minutes per game, 7.3 points on .396/.727 percent shooting, 1.1 threes, 1.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.0 blocks and 0.9 turnovers. This kind of production does not justify 76 percent ownership so it stands to reason that owners are clinging to name recognition instead. Outside of the deepest of leagues, there are probably better options out on the waiver wire so cut ties with the aging floor general and get some fresh blood. [@OKC LAC CHI @WAS]

Stay the Course

Robin Lopez (PF/C – 40%) Last week, Channing Frye reminded owners that his run isn’t quite over yet. But does that mean Robin Lopez’s run is over then? Not necessarily. With the promise he showed recently, you should give the FroLo experiment a few more games before throwing in the towel on it. Tonight, the Suns play the Houston Rockets, which is a gold-mine for opposing centers. If you can hold on to Robin until the Amare Stoudemire saga plays out, you could be greatly rewarded for your patience as Lopez would be a huge beneficiary of any Stoudemire trade that does not net a big man in return. [@NOR @DEN @SAC]

Buy Low

Brandon Roy (PG/SG – 99%) Brandon Roy has proven to (paradoxically) been both injury-prone and a warrior at the same time. He does not have a body that can routinely take the punishment of an 82 game schedule without breaking down at some point. However, he is one of those guys that would do anything to stay on the court including playing through injuries and ailments to give his team the best chance of winning games. With Roy currently sidelined with a hamstring injury with a murky timeline, you might be able to pry Roy from his owners based upon fear of this injury being more serious than initially expected. With that in mind, you don’t want to pay fair value for Roy in case this happens, making BRoy a solid buy-low candidate. [CHA @UTA SAS LAL]

Sell High

Andrew Bogut (C – 86%) When an injury-prone big man starts posting first round value, it is a warning sign that now might be a good time to sell high for a more consistent and less injury-prone player. Remember that when selling high, you want to take advantage of a player who is performing well above a level you can reasonably expect them to sustain for the remainder of the season. Bogut is a classic example right now. Over the past two weeks, he has posted top ten value averaging 18.9 points on .648/.767 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 10.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 3.1 blocks and 2.8 turnovers per game. It is pretty unreasonable to expect this to continue for the next few months so move him for a first or second round talent if you can get another manager to bite on his unbelievable recent production. [@MIA @ORL @NYK IND]

Mystery Man

Paul Millsap (SF/PF – 80%)  It’s pretty much mandatory that you mention Carlos Boozer anytime you mention Paul Millsap these days. Carlos Boozer. Glad we got that out of the way. Anyways, Millsap has been producing more consistently recently and went absolutely bananas with Boozer sidelined with a calf strain. In Carlos’ absence, he put up 32 points on .647/.909 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 14 rebounds, 7 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks and 2 turnovers. Wow. Although Boozer is most likely going to be around for the rest of the season, head coach Jerry Sloan recently commented on the need to get more minutes for Paul. Millsap is this week’s mystery man because it is hard to say whether this is a sell high moment or whether Paul will be able to continue to produce at such a high level. Millsap has proved that he can produce at a high level when he is given the minutes. [DAL POR DEN]

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As we arrive at the mid-point of the season, it becomes apparent that the early season success of a few players is more than just a fluke hot start. These players may have been decent contributors in the past but never gained mainstream attention outside of their own team’s fan base. These are the players that should be considered for the Most Improved Player Award.

Maybe it’s increased playing time, a coaching change or an injury to a star player that opens the door for an increased role. Or, maybe it is simply natural improvement from long hours in the gym during the offseason. Whatever the reason, these guys are playing at a high level and are demanding attention from both their NBA peers and the fans. Last season, Pacers forward and franchise player, Danny Granger, took the honors, averaging a fantasy-friendly line of 25.8 points on .447/.878 percent shooting, 2.7 threes, 5.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.4 blocks and 2.5 turnovers.

This year, there are a number of worthy candidates who have stepped up their respective games and become household names in the process. Channing Frye has played at a very high level after his disappointing stint in Portland and Kevin Durant has somehow managed to expand his game even further, willing the Thunder into the playoff picture a few seasons too early. When talking about the most improved player this year, however, two names should be included in the discussion: Houston’s Carl Landry and Memphis’ Marc Gasol.

Carl Landry has done an amazing job of playing the role of a potent offensive force off the bench with Yao Ming hurt and Tracy McGrady in purgatory. He is third in the League in points scored in the fourth quarter (just over six points) bested only by Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James. His efficient scoring has been a major factor behind the continued success of the young Rockets team, with Landry’s field goal percentage of .552 good for ninth in the League and his true shooting percentage of .625 good for seventh.

The somewhat dimunutive forward (listed as 6′9”) has become the spark plug off the bench for the curiously successful and star-less Houston Rockets. Playing in limited minutes (27.2 minutes per game), Landry has taken on the role of not only providing an offensive boost for his team but is also staking his claim on the defensive end of the court as well. His season averages of 16.4 points on .551/.853 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 5.4 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.9 blocks and 1.7 turnovers (bold denotes career highs). Just imagine if he was seeing over 35 minutes per night. Or, just look at his per-36 minute averages, which come out to 21.4 points and 7.1 rebounds.

Despite all of this, his offensive numbers have dipped slightly in January. This is probably the result of the fact that teams are now more aware of Landry’s offensive potential and go-to crunch time scorer status. He is showing up more prominently in the pre-game scouting reports and is routinely seeing double teams now when he gets near the paint. However, Landry has managed to adjust his game to the increased defensive pressure by cutting his turnovers and keeping nearly the same assist rate in January.

Landry has become an important part of the Rockets rebuilding effort and should be a fixture in their future as a result. He is tougher than bullets and is about as resilient as they come. His high-caliber play this season combined coupled with team success should make him an ideal candidate for Most Improved Player Award consideration.

Next up on the MIP watch list is the other Gasol brother, Marc. When the Grizzlies’ brain trust decided to make the mega-deal that sent Pau Gasol to Los Angeles and forever shifted the balance of power in the West in the process, few of Memphis’ faithful were excited about the prospect of receiving Pau’s younger brother as the main compensation for their All-Star power forward/center. Marc was treated as the red-headed step child to Pau’s first born status and was not believed to be as skilled or athletically gifted as his older sibling. In fact, Marc has a bigger frame than his older brother, making him more of a true center than his brother.

Despite the public lashing of Memphis General Manager Chris Wallace from both Grizzlies fans and league executives alike, Marc has done a nice job of proving his worth. In fact, he is beginning to force people to reconsider the “lopsided” deal that caused outrage throughout the League when it was announced (Lakers fans excluded, of course).

As the starting center for the Grizz, Marc has improved his game in basically all facets from his rookie year (which wasn’t too shabby either). In just over 35 minutes per game, he currently averages 15.1 points on .604/.692 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists,  1.0 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.1 turnovers (bold denotes career highs). Coming into the season, it was apparent Gasol had not only worked on his game in the off season but he also put in some major work in the gym getting his conditioning right and losing the excess weight. He looks like he is no longer frequenting the local McDonalds and has become a prime physical specimen, distancing himself from Glen Davis comparisons.

As a result, little Gasol has taken his offensive game to the next level and is scoring very efficiently from the field. He leads the league in true shooting percentage at .643 and is second in field goal percentage at .604. He has also become an effective post presence and defensive game changer. This season, he is more comfortable playing with his back to the basket, is blocking more shots and has an impressive 20.6 percent defensive rebounding rate.

The Grizzlies have become one of the better story lines of the 2009-10 season, to the surprise of, well, pretty much everyone. After starting out a dismal 1-8 they have gone 23-11 since. The failed Allen Iverson experiment is now in the rear-view mirror and this young squad is starting to make some noise in the wild, wild West. The Grizzlies are showing a more team-oriented play by nearly every major contributor on the team (Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Zach Randolph) and Marc is no exception. A ton of credit has to be given to head coach Lionel Hollins (Coach of the Year Award perhaps?) for turning this young squad around over the past couple of seasons.

The simple fact that Gasol is able to co-exist in the post with Randolph should put him in the running for at least some kind of award. But to be fair, Randolph has been spectacular in his own right. He has become a model citizen (a far cry from his Jail Blazers days) and has been an extremely vital part of the team’s new-found success. It’s hard to improve on a double-double but Randolph has somehow elevated his intensity this season and is playing at an All-Star level and is even playing unselfish, team-first basketball. Paired with the more svelte Gasol 2.0, they have made quite the front court tandem that could lead the Grizzlies to their first playoff birth since the 2005-06 season (there has been total roster turnover since then) and could even make for a pretty tough first round draw. It’s even kind of scary when you remember the 7′3″ Hasheem Thabeet is on the bench waiting for his own time to man the paint.

Both Carl Landry and Mark Gasol have stepped their games up to a new level this season and deserved to be applauded for their hard work on and off the court. They are both playing at a high level and are contributing significantly to their respective team’s success . Both should be legitimately considered viable candidates for the Most Improved Player Award this season.

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Before we get to the good stuff, I just wanted to mention that we’ve experienced some trouble on the website as hackers thought we were an enviable target.  We have to assume they were unhappy with Plonden’s advice, but regardless, we lost Deebo’s post/comments and I’ve had to redo this week’s preview (that’s why it was late).  Regardless, lesson to be learned – BACK UP everything you do somewhere!

Okay, enough about the weasels as we’re here to talk about basketball!  First off, we’ve got games galore as most teams are playing 4 games this week.  Second, we’ve got tons of player issues that still need to be resolved.  The following players have all recently missed a game and if they miss anymore, look for the guys in parentheses to be useful in the short interim: Joakim Noah (Brad Miller, Taj Gibson), David West (Darius Songaila), Delonte West (Daniel Gibson).  Also, supposedly we’ll discover the fate of Gilbert Arenas for the rest of the season while JR Smith is having problems in Denver (at least he’s slated to play tonight!)

Week Fourteen Schedules

Four Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DEN, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIA, MIN, NOH, NYK, ORL, PHI, PHO, POR, SAS

Three Games:  CHI, DAL, DET, MIL, NJN, OKL, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS

Two Games:  NONE

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Carlos Delfino (34%) – Not sure why owners have been so slow to flock to this cash cow as Ziguana has him ranked 5th overall the last 10 days.  I guess averages of 18.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 3.6 3ptm and 2.0 steals aren’t worth a spot on your roster.  Granted, in no way do I think he’ll sustain these averages the rest of the year, but it appears he’s emerged as one of Skile’s favorites.  In addition, with Michael Redd done for the year and Ersan Ilyasova continuing to struggle, the Bucks will keep giving him plenty of opportunity to contribute.

George Hill (9%) – This dynamic young guy has started the last 3 games and it looks like he may stick.  Coach Popovich has lately been dropping praises his way so it’s obvious he’s moved ahead of Keith Bogans and Roger Mason on the depth chart.  Also, don’t forget Tony Parker has been struggling with the everyone-seems-to-be-getting-it plantar fasciitis.  In the meantime, there is a good chance he’ll continue to put up solid points and 3ptm on strong shooting percentages to go along with useful rebounds, assists and steals.

Brandon Rush (27%) – Funny thing has happened in Indiana.  With the return of Danny Granger, it appears Mr. Rush has decided to finally cash in on some of his preseason sleeper status.  We know he’s already been good for the surprising rebounds and defensive numbers on occasion to go with little TO’s, but, now he’s found his shooting touch.  Over five of the last six games (discounting one game due to 5 fouls limiting him to under 15 minutes), he’s averaged 14.4 points (on 65.8 FG% and 100 FT%), 2.4 3ptm, 4.6 rebounds and 1 block.  Might as well enjoy the ride with him while it lasts.

Marcus Thornton (5%) – He’s certainly been back on everyone’s radar as he’s been averaging 12.4 points (on 48.3 FG% and 92.9 FT%), 1.4 3ptm, 3.4 rebounds, .8 steals and .8 TO’s the last 9 games.  However, that production is about to go up as Devin Brown was traded to Chicago today for Aaron Gray.  Considering James Posey will likely be kept as a reserve and Morris Peterson is irrelevant, Thornton will see a nice spike in his minutes (last 9 games – 22.3 min) to probably something in the neighborhood of 30 a game – probably enough to be pickup worthy in standard leagues.

Anthony Tolliver (3%) – What?  I’m advocating a guy fresh out of the D-League?  You betcha!  The Warriors currently field around 8 healthy bodies and that includes 3 D-Leaguers’.  However, one of them has enough game to help you in fantasy leagues.  World meet Mr. Tolliver.  He’s supposedly the most NBA-ready Development League Player, and, thus far, he’s shown it in his limited stint as a member of the fantasy friendly Golden State Warriors.  In watching Saturday’s GSW-PHO matchup, he easily bested his opponent – Amare Stoudemire.  Another fantastic sign – Don Nelson loves this kid.  With Vladimir Radmanovic still out and GSW lacking any kind of true power forward, it seems highly likely the Warriors are going to sign him for the rest of the season and, in the short term, he’ll help out any fantasy owner with multi-cat awards of points, threes, rebounds to go along with solid %’s and decent defensive numbers.

CUT LIST (No need to shed a tear)

Ronnie Brewer (60%) – Ronnie deserves mention here because his role seems to be getting reduced by the day.  His minutes have decreased with each passing month: November (37.12) to December (31.41) to January (26.41).  With Kyle Korver, CJ Miles, Wesley Matthews and Andrei Kirilenko all healthy, they’ll continue to steal more minutes as Brewer remains a bigger than usual offensive liability.  In addition, it appears the Memphis Grizzlies are very interested in trading for him whereby he’d be relegated to the bench.

WATCH LIST (Deep Leagues pounce, but standard leagues first weigh the options)

Arron Afflalo (6%) – He’s worth a look now as J.R. Smith has been in a massive slump of late where this past Saturday it came to a head as he played a season low 12 minutes.  It was reported he walked off the court and Denver contemplated suspending him.  However, news was just released that danger was avoided, but he’s not out of the woods yet.  If he continues to play poorly, George Karl will have no choice but go with Afflalo who has easily had his best month as a member of the Nuggets:  11.8 points (on 52.2 FG% and 81.3 FT%), 2.1 3ptm, 2.9 rebounds, .9 steals and 1.4 TO’s.

Rudy Fernandez (22%) – Seems a perfect storm is brewing in Portland, whereby Rudy could come out a short-term winner.  Brandon Roy is in the midst of missing at least 4 games, Jerryd Bayless is dealing with a recently injured ankle and Steve Blake has strong potential to vanish most games.  If Rudy happens to snap out of his shooting funk, he could put up fantastic points, 3ptm and steals with decent rebounds and assists.

Goran Dragic (2%) – Leandro Barbosa underwent surgery to have his troublesome cyst removed so he’ll be out at least a month.  Jason Richardson hasn’t been firing on all cylinders meanwhile Steve Nash has mentioned feeling arthritic.  Combine all this with Dragic’s surprising effective play of late and we’ve got a potential fantasy commodity on our hands as he’s bound to get a sizable boost in minutes going forward.  Check out his 36 minute averages this year:  16.3 points (on 46 FG%), 1.8 3ptm, 4.4 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.6 steals.  Me likey.

Marreese Speights (14%) – No, pre-injury Marreese hasn’t shown up yet, but there is still hope going forward.  First, his minutes have been trending upward and he recently put up 14 points with 3 steals and 3 blocks in only 25 minutes of play.  Second, he is the Sixers main back up to Elton Brand (injury risk) and Samuel Dalembert (foul prone/trade risk).  Concievably at any time, the floodgates could open so it might make sense to pack away this fantasy force.  In the meantime, he should at least put up serviceable numbers.

STAY THE COURSE (Don’t jump ship just yet)

Channing Frye (73%) – Recently, Alvin Gentry inserted Robin Lopez into the starting lineup thereby demoting Channing to the bench.  As a reserve in 4 games, he’s only averaged about 17.5 minutes, scary indeed.  However, I wouldn’t suggest punting Frye to the curb – especially if he fits your fantasy team’s needs.  Robin Lopez is bound to struggle at times while Frye will emerge out of his January funk (37.9 FG%) to where at worst it’ll be an effective timeshare between the two big men.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIAL (Name(s) that could be flying under the radar in your deep league)

Jerry Stackhouse (2%) – If he’s still available in your larger than standard league, I’d advise you to pick him up.  First, it appears he still has game as evidenced in his first 3 appearances.  Second, Skiles has increased his minutes every time out with a high of 28 their last game.  Third, there isn’t much resistance on the roster as his main competition are guys like Charlie Bell and rookie Jodie Meeks.

BUY LOW

Jason Thompson (81%) – Simply put, he isn’t as bad as the January splits would lead you to believe.  His main issue has been too many personal fouls; consequently, his erratic playing time has put him into a shooting slump.  The Kings have shown a much higher tolerance to his growing pains rather than Spencer Hawes so they will stick by the young fellas’ side.  As long as you don’t mind his questionable FT shooting, he is currently an excellent buy low candidate as I fully expect him to get back in the saddle.

SELL HIGH

Corey Maggette (85%) – This one is fairly obvious, but I feel too many owners have become TOO enamored with his recent astounding play.  Sure over the last month per game averages, Yahoo has him ranked 5th.  That’s what 27.9 points (on 58.2 FG% and 90.6 FT%), 6.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists and .8 steals will do for you.  However, I think there isn’t a good chance of it continuing for most of the rest of the season.  First, Maggette has steadily missed a decent chunk of games every year due to injury.  Even Don Nelson has mentioned he’d rather keep him to around 30 minutes a game.  Second, the Warriors will get healthier consequently his minutes and thus his usage (like shot attempts) will invariably go down.  Go ahead and see if you can swing him for a top player before the window closes ala Brandon Jennings style.

MYSTERY MAN

Chris Duhon (53%) – I’m not even sure if Chris Duhon knows what to expect anymore.  We’ve seen the highs and low from him last year, but it hasn’t been anything like this season.  In October and November, he never even came close to sniffing a 30FG%.  Then in December we saw it jump to 43.2% and basketballmonster.com had him ranked 64th in per game stats.  Flip the calender and in January he’s back to another mendoza number – 30.8%.  My feeling is that the Knicks continue to keep him in the starting role simply because they have no one else suitable to run the offense to D’Antoni’s liking.  They continue to support him hoping that his confidence magically reappears.  However, my gut feeling is the longer the paltry play continues the more likely Donnie Walsh brings in anybody to finish the season.  If you’re in a roto league, you can chance him on the bench.  However, in H2H, I’d assume you can find a better option so make the move.

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Ask any casual NBA fan (weekend warriors who get their basketball news from Gametime) to name the top three defenses in the League and you’ll usually get some combination of the Boston Celtics, the San Antonio Spurs, the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers. How many people mention the Charlotte Bobcats? Well, only those with their finger on the pulse of the Association, as the Bobcats have clawed their way to the the top of the defensive food chain under the guidance of hall of fame head coach Larry Brown.

Last season, Charlotte finished the season as the seventh best defense overall and finished outside the playoffs after being very much in the hunt with a few weeks left in the season. They ended up 35-47 with the tenth best record in the Eastern Conference after losing seven of their last eight games of the season. If the playoffs were to start today, the Bobcats would be the sixth seed in the East after their victory over the Sacramento Kings on MLK Jr. Day.

Oh, and did I mention that it would mark the first time in franchise history that the Bobcats made the playoffs?

This season is shaping up to be a truly historic one for the Bobcats, who have undergone dramatic changes since joining the League in 2004 as an expansion team. Only Gerald Wallace remains from the original roster. As presently constructed, Crash is the heart and soul of the entire Bobcats franchise and will be representing the Bobcats at ASG weekend in Dallas. As of now, he is only participating in the Slam Dunk Contest but will most likely be a coach’s selection as a reserve (overdue). The co-leader of Charlotte is the newly-acquired Stephen Jackson, who plays the role of complementary star very well, playing physical defense in Coach Brown’s system alongside Gerald.

Charlotte’s Defense

Charlotte’s defense has been getting more aggressive as the season progresses and centers around tons of ball pressure. They have been putting lots of pressure on the ball in the backcourt, and having been doing so early and often. They have also been trapping hard and have even been able to trap successfully in the middle of the court, which is extremely difficult to do successfully. In the paint, the Bobcats’ help defense is exceptional with the athletic wings playing the passing lanes and blocking shots and the other players rotating accordingly. On pick and rolls, Charlotte is able to switch, as virtually all of their players can guard multiple positions effectively.

In short, the Charlotte Bobcats are the Bizarro Phoenix Suns. No, seriously. Charlotte is 2nd in defense and 26th on offense. The Suns are first in offense and 29th in defense. Both teams play significantly better at home, with their records being pretty similar at home. Charlotte’s main problem is finding a way to win on the road and finding a way to bring the same defensive intensity in other teams’ buildings.

Focusing in on Charlotte’s defense further, the Bobcats have a defensive rating of 101.2, which puts them behind only the Los Angeles Lakers in defensive efficiency this season. Compared to the League average of 106.8, this provides a differential of -5.6, which puts the Bobcats and Lakers on pace to finish somewhere near the top thirty in terms of defensive efficiency differential over the past 25 years. Not bad at all.

Using Dean Oliver’ four factor analysis, we can break down the Bobcats’ defense further to see what the numbers can tell us about their defense and what makes it special. To summarize his analysis, Oliver posited that the four most important factors for team success is shooting, rebounding, turnovers and fouls. On the defensive end of the spectrum, the analysis is how well Charlotte can stymie the other team’s pursuit of the four factors.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

Charlotte is an above-average team in terms of effective field goal percentage allowed, allowing an eFG% of .490, which is good for eleventh overall. This is not what makes their defense elite, but is certainly not a detriment. Looking closer, Charlotte plays better defense at certain zones of the court. At the rim, the Bobcats allow opponents to shoot .593, which is the eleventh best at this area. From outside the rim to ten feet, Charlotte forces a measley .390 field goal percentage, good for fifth overall and agrees with the general perception that they defend the paint well. From ten to fifteen feet, the Bobcats allow .395 FG%, which is good for 16th overall. From 16 to 23 feet, they allow only .387 percent of shots to go in, putting them at tenth overall. On the perimeter, they allow .508 eFG%, making them the eighth best team at contesting the three. In terms of limiting opponents from getting high percentage looks, the only area of the court that Charlotte excels in defending is the paint. Everywhere else they are generally above-average but not exceptional.

Turnover Percent

The second of Oliver’s four factors is turnovers, with us being interested in how well Charlotte forces turnovers. Here is where Charlotte’s defense is at it’s best. The Bobcats force opponent turnovers on .156 percent of their possessions, which is the second best mark in the League after only the Golden State Warriors. In contrast, the Warriors gamble in order to force their turnovers with the end result often being a Warrior ending up way out of position and giving up an easy bucket to the other team. The Bobcats force turnovers without gambling through aggressive ball pressure, playing the passing lanes and effective trapping by their athletic guards and wings.

In terms of individuals, take a look at some of the team leaders in steal percentage. The team’s starting point guard, Raymond Felton, leads the team, stealing the ball on 2.9 percent of the opposing team’s possessions. Fittingly, Jax and G-Wall are tied for second on the team, coming up with the steal on 2.1 percent of the opposing team’s possessions. For Wallace, this can actually be considered a down year for him in terms of his thievery, as he set a career high in both steals per game (2.5) and steal percentage (3.7) in 2005-06. This is Charlotte’s bread and butter on the defensive end of the floor and what makes their defense truly special.

Rebounding

The next factor is rebounding, or more specifically, defensive rebounding. Despite missing Tyson Chandler for significant portions of the season (only appeared in 25 of 39 games), the Bobcats have still played the defensive glass extremely well, snagging .750 percent of the defensive boards (sixth overall). Considering the other players to log time at center for the Bobcats (Nazr Mohammed, Boris Diaw and Dasagana Diop) and their defensive rebound percentages, it is hard to imagine how they are sixth overall. The main reason? Gerald Wallace. In fact, his defensive rebounding statistical improvement in his ninth season is considered to be one of the greatest statistical aberrations in basketball. Wallace currently stands at fourth in the Association in defensive rebounding, eighth in total rebounds, fifth in rebounds per game and ninth in defensive rebounding percentage.

Free Throws (Fouls)

The final factor is free throws, but can be also be viewed in terms of fouls. From the offensive side, Oliver pointed out the frequency of free throw attempts and the rate at which they are converted are vitally important to team success. This is expressed as FT/FGA. On the defensive end, team’s are successful by playing hard-nosed defense without fouling. As a team, the Bobcats have a FT/FGA rate of .207, which is good for seventh in the League. Again, not elite but definitely above-average. In terms of individuals, the Bobcats main defensive players do not foul frequently. Tyson Chandler (when healthy) averages 3.2 fouls per game, Wallace 2.8 and Diaw 2.7, which is impressive considering their aggressive style of defensive play.

Conclusion

Recently, the national basketball audience is starting to warm up to the Bobcats, and with good reason. Recently, the Bobcats embarassed both the San Antonio Spurs (92-76) and the Phoenix Suns (125-99) en route to winning eight of their last nine games. The Bobcats deserve to be respected, especially at home, where they are 17-4 for the fourth best home record in the League. The respect is a good start for a franchise that has been completely devoid of it for virtually their entire history.

Beyond simple respect, Gerald Wallace deserves to be considered for the Defensive Player of the Year Award for his role as the defensive leader of the second best defense in the Association. In terms of individual Defensive Rating, Gerald’s 97.2 is second only to reigning DPOY Winner, Dwight Howard. In terms of Defensive Win Shares, Wallace is first overall with his defense contributing an estimated 3.5 wins to the Bobcats 20 wins this season.

Crash is a game changer on both ends of the floors and is about to break out onto the national stage in Dallas (if his recent ankle injury isn’t too serious). Wallace should be rewarded with DPOY award due to Bobcats’ team success and his role as leader on the defensive end of the floor.

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After week twelve, we’ve officially reached the half-way point of the regular season, which means it is mid-season adjustment time. Now is a perfect time to evaluate your team’s cumulative performance and assess your strengths and weaknesses. For head-to-head leagues, check your punting strategy and consider whether it makes sense to adjust your strategy going forward. For roto leagues, now might be time to consider big trades to shore up any weaknesses. Any team can be improved with the right moves; just don’t make the classic mistake of making a move for the sake of, well, making a move.

Season Tracker

The 2009-10 season is 48 percent complete.

Week 13 Schedules

Four Games: CHA, CHI, DAL, DET, GSW, IND, LAC, LAL, MIA, MIL, MIN, NJN, NOR, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHO, POR, SAC, TOR, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CLE, DEN, HOU, MEM, NYK, SAS,

Two Games: UTA

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Luke Ridnour (PG – 38%) Since Michael Redd went down with his ACL/MCL injury version 2.0, Ridnour has averaged 13.8 points on .409/.933 percent shooting, 1.3 threes, 1.8 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.8 turnovers in 28.5 minutes per contest. Taking a step back, Ridnour is 82nd in cumulative value over the entire season so he should have higher ownership. Grab Luke if you are looking for assists and threes on good percentages with low turnovers, which makes him a nice end of the bench point guard.

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 29%) Barnes has been one of the few bright spots lately for the struggling Magic. He’s been a warrior playing through injuries while stuffing the stat sheet and providing solid fantasy production off the wire. Barnes has even become a leader for the Magic as he recently called out his teammates’ lack of heart and hustle. Over the past week, Matt’s hustle led to averages of 15.3 points on .581/.600 percent shooting, 2.3 threes, 7.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.0 turnovers (good for top 25 in per game value). Expect Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy to reward Barnes’ effort on and off the court with 30+ minutes a night.

DeJuan Blair (SF/PF/C – 28%) Grizzly Blair is certainly earning his catalog of nicknames in his rookie campaign. With Coach Gregg Popovich giving Tim Duncan his first DNP-CD of the season, Blair responded in beastly fashion dropping 28 and 21 on the Thunder’s face. Expect more Duncan DNP-CDs for the balance of the season, especially on the second night of back-to-backs, and expect more burly lines from DeJuan in those games. He is a walking double-double and will have occasional eye-popping performances on the glass.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 26%) Just when Butler makes you contemplate cutting him after three mediocre performances on the road, he drops 33 points (tied his career high) at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who happen to have the League’s fifth best defense this season. Not too shabby. He has been seeing a steady 30 minutes a night this season and has had a few strong stretches of play over the course of the first half of the season. Butler is primarily a three point specialist but, as the Cleveland game proves, has potential for big scoring nights.

Watch List

Delonte West (PG/SG – 21%) Against all odds, West looks like he might be starting to pull it together this season despite his ongoing legal troubles. It’s not quite time to move on West in standard formats but he is worth keeping an eye on in case he starts consistently putting up his ultra-efficient lines of yesteryear. Monitor Delonte’s minutes and performance in Cleveland’s three games this week and pull the trigger (pun intended) if he continues to produce.

Robin Lopez (PF/C – 7%) After a couple of DNP-CDs, RoLo has put together back-to-back strong performances, amassing an impressive nine blocks. With the Suns in a serious mid-season rut, look for coach Alvin Gentry to redistribute minutes and possibly even make lineup changes. With all signs pointing to the Suns looking for a defensive game changer, Lopez is the natural selection for the honors. As a guide, take a look at his per-36 minute averages this season of 12.7 points on .552/.571 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.8 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.3 steals, 3.0 blocks and 2.1 turnovers. If Robin continues to get good burn he could prove to be a great source of big man-stats off the wire. The other player to keep an eye on is rookie Earl Clark as he has also given Coach good minutes recently.

Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 3%) Looks like the rook finally found his shooting touch again. Thornton had a tough stretch where he failed to reach double digits in scoring since before Christmas. He has done it in each of the past five games while averaging 12.4 points on .479/.857 percent shooting, 2.0 threes, 4.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers, which is good for top 70 in per game value over the past week. If the Hornets fall much farther out of the playoff picture in the competitive Western Conference, Coach Jeff Bower will likely give his young guys an increased role in order to promote their development with an eye towards the future.

Vladimir Radmanovic (SF/PF – 5%) / Devean George (SG/SF – 0%) Somebody has to lace ‘em up for Golden State. Neither player is that exciting nor has much upside, but at least one of them is in line for decent minutes simply by the process of elimination. The one basic truth of fantasy basketball is that minutes are a prerequisite for fantasy value. Vlad-Rad is the more promising of the two, but has been sidelined for the past two games with injuries of his own. Golden States’ unparalleled injury woes this season have forced coach Don Nelson to giving George a season high 19 minutes on Friday night. Yuck.

Deep League Special

DeAndre Jordan (PF/C – 3%) / Craig Smith (PF/C – 3%) The Clippers front line is starting to show some cracks, despite their depth at the four and five. Blake Griffin is out for the season with his kneecap injury. Chris Kaman is a big man with back issues and is currently listed as doubtful for Monday’s game against the Nets. As back issues tend to linger, Kaman’s day-to-day status could extend beyond the current week. Smith has stepped up big time in the past couple of games (16.5 points per game) but is dealing with injury issues of his own. Keep an eye on these two players as one or both of them should have decent value as long as Kaman is sidelined.

Kris Humphries (SF/PF – 2%) The recent trade that sent Humphries to the New Jersey Nets opened the door for an increased role for him. So far, the early returns are looking good and Kris could end up being a strong play going forward. In his two games as a New Jersey Net, Humphries has averaged 12.0 points in .400/.750 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.0 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers  in 22 minutes per game. Unfortunately for the Nets, the Nets are 0-2 since gaining Humphries, but that is not really a surprise considering how historically bad this team is. If Kris gets good run in another couple of games and provides decent production, his ownership level will start trending upward.

Jordan Hill (SF/PF – 3%) At this point, Hill probably only deserves deep league watch list status. But in coach Mike D’Antoni’s world, things can change rapidly, as Jordan’s teammate Nate Robinson learned the hard way earlier this season. But after Hill’s strong showing against Detroit on Saturday (he was a +17), D’Antoni is leaning towards giving Hill a chance to earn significant minutes. Looking at his per-36 minute stats from this season, (warning: small sample size alert; based upon only 117 career minutes) Hill averages 16.3 points on .545/.625 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.2 steals, 2.2 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. It is also important to note that he is averaging 6.8 fouls in that same time  span.

Amir Johnson (SF/PF – 3%) Amir is another promising young forward who is worth monitoring right now. In Sunday’s early game against the Mavericks, Johnson put up 10 points on .556/.000 percent shooting, 0 threes, 8 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 1 block and 1 turnover in about 22 minutes. After the game, Amir was praised by Coach Jay Triano for his defense against Dirk Nowitzki. Unless you play for the Golden State Warriors, playing solid defense is one sure-fire way to force your way into the rotation.

George Hill (PG – 6%) The sophomore point guard out of IUPUI is turning heads around the Association based upon his strong play this season, especially on the defensive end of the floor. Defense and Pop are like peas and carrots. As a result, Hill has gotten strong run the past few weeks and has logged time at both guard positions. Over the past five games, Hill is averaging 10.8 points on .575/.667 percent shooting, 0.8 threes, 2.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.4 blocks and 0.8 turnovers in 29.4 minutes. This recent production put Hill just outside the top-1oo in per game value over the past week.

Stay the Course

Omri Casspi (SG/SF/PF – 50%) Casspi has had a hell of a run for the Sacramento Kings, who absolutely killed it in the 2009 NBA Draft. Unfortunately, Kevin Martin has returned to put the buzz kill on Omri’s feel-good rookie campaign. In the two games since K-Mart returned to action, Omri has seen single digit field goal attempts (resulting in back-to-back six point games), although his minutes are still relatively stable. Casspi’s production was too good to respond to these stink bombs by cutting him. At least give it two more games before giving Casspi the old heave-ho.

Cut

Beno Udrih (PG/SG – 56%) Like Casspi, Beno has also been affected by Kevin Martin’s return to action on the hardwood. Unlike Casspi, it is probably time to thank Beno for all of his hard work and hand him a pink slip. The primary difference between Casspi and Udrih is that as a guard, Udrih is more directly affected by Kevin’s return and the impact is completely negative. It’s hard to recommend cutting a player who has posted top-75 cumulative value through the first half of the season but that value was based largely upon Martin’s absence and the Kings’ need for someone to replace his scoring.

Buy Low

Josh Smith (SF/PF – 99%) After a scorching start to the season, Smoove has cooled down a bit over the past couple of weeks. Perfect opportunity to buy low, especially considering the fact that Smith has performed better after the All-Star game throughout his career. Josh’s recent numbers have been subpar, with him putting up 12.7 points on .467/.543 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.9 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.3 turnovers over the past couple of weeks. Some impatient owners may be starting to panic so throw out a lowball trade offer to the Josh Smith owner in your league and see if he bites.

Sell High

Corey Maggette (SG/SF – %) The injury-thinned Golden State Warriors are having to lean heavily on their few healthy players with Monta Ellis and Maggette handling the heaviest workloads. Over the past couple of weeks, Maggette has been one of the hottest players in the league, averaging an impressive 29.3 points per game on .556/.915 percent shooting, 0.2 threes, 7.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.0 blocks and 2.3 turnovers in nearly 40 minutes per game. These staggering numbers are good for first round value, which is unrealistic for Corey to keep up for the balance of the season. At some point the Warriors will get more healthy bodies back and Maggette’s role will decrease meaning his value is probably at it’s apex right now.

Mystery Man

Chris Duhon (PG – 64%) Duhon’s recent play has been putrid. Positively wretched for a starting point guard in the NBA. However, it is hard to cut bait with him knowing that he has started in all 40 of the Knicks’ games this season and will most likely continue to do so for the remainder of the season. After all, Duhon has proven to be a streaky player and is probably poised for a productive stretch of games. Duhon is an extremely frustrating player to own who does just enough to keep you from cutting him from week to week. The outlook is cloudy with a high chance of frustration.

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As I’m sure you remember, Greg Oden will once again miss the rest of the season due to another horrific injury.  This time he fractured his left knee cap.  First, it was a right knee injury in his rookie season that led to microfracture surgery.  Last year, he missed 15 games due to a bone chip in his left knee and 6 games to a foot sprain.  It’s no wonder Blazer fans are scared out of their minds as they’ve gone through big man troubles with Bill Walton and then Sam Bowie.  So what does the future hold for Greg Oden?  Specifically, can he take some precautions to significantly reduce the liklihood of injury?  On a broader note, is it feasible to eliminate the injury prone label from all NBA players?

To best determine the propensity of injury, we need to go beyond the simple misconceptions such as some players are simply more prevalent that others.  Consequently, we’re going to turn to everyone’s favorite subject – science!  Surprisingly, Newton’s Third Law of Motion is quite applicable in which every action there is an opposite and equal reaction.

The kinetic chain is made up of the muscular, skeletal, and nervous systems, which work together to allow optimum function.  If any component of the system is out of balance, it leads to a complex dysfunction.

Muscles work most efficiently in specific positions.  They have an ideal length-tension point or position from which they can produce the most force.  If a muscle is “stuck” in a lengthened or shortened position, then force production decreases.

Likewise, joints also function in an ideal position.  During movement, two joint surfaces roll, glide, or spin on one another.  The path of instantaneous center of rotation is the path that one joint takes on another during motion—think of the head of the humerus moving on the glenoid fossa of the scapula as you lift your arm over your head.

Muscles and joints have sensory receptors that are constantly sending proprioceptive feedback to the central nervous system.  When the muscles are the right length and the joints are moving correctly, the central nervous system receives the correct information to allow optimum performance.

However, if muscles are too short or too long, they change the position of the joints to which they attach.  Both muscle length and altered joint position change proprioception to the central nervous system.  This altered kinesthetic awareness leads to synergistic dominance, reciprocal inhibition, athrokinetic inhibition, and decreased flexibility.

Source:  Momentum Media

So in English, it would appear human bodies need to be in a lot of correct positions in order to minimize failure, and thus, injury.  So did Greg exhibit the correct positions?  Definitely not, according to one non-medical pain relief site, as Greg was in trouble even before he left the ground:

What’s cool is it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see postural imbalances.  When we look at Greg Oden and his history, things become very clear: he’s been told his right leg is longer than the left (if I was able to look at him, we’d probably see that it’s actually a hip disparity (hip elevation/tilt imbalance) that is causing the leg to appear longer when it’s really not), his feet turn out (evert), his right shoulder is lower than his left, and his knees do not line up with his ankles and hips.

Source:  EGOSCUE Portland

So one can surmise that Greg Oden has had to make a lot of compensations for the way his body is built when landing and jumping.  Can it really matter that much?  How about a resounding YES!

The knees are designed to point straight ahead in-line with your hips and ankles and vertically aligned one-on-top-of-the-other.  If your right foot turns out and your right knee turns in and your left side lines up the way it’s designed to, which knee do you think you are going to injure?  Yes, the right knee.  It’s just basic physics – all about forces, action-reaction, friction, and stress.  If joints line up correctly you easily distribute forces through the structures the way they are designed, the proper action-reaction in the bones and muscles occurs, and friction and stress on the body are minimal.  Joints don’t line up?  Hello friction, stress, pain and injury.  Misaligned joints are injuries waiting to happen.

Source:  EGOSCUE Portland

It has been proven that most basketball injuries occur in the second half, whether in the NBA or NCAA.  This tells us that repeated instances of physically harmful activity can add up and increase the likelihood of failure due to fatigue.  So really a rigorous NBA schedule of 82 games really only leaves the question of when.

What are athletes to do then?  There is no denying that Greg Oden has worked hard in his rehabbing after every injury.  Greg Oden has even done pilates to better condition his body.  However, considering his injury track record it appears to have been to no avail.  I posit that he’s simply not undertaken the correct steps of rehabilitation.

Muscles move bones. So it is a muscle imbalance issue.

Didn’t Greg Oden rehab his muscles after his last knee injury and surgery?

He got stronger, that’s for sure. But not in proper balance. The problem with the conventional approach is people think let’s just get in the weight room as get as strong as we can. Let’s get as fast as we can. Let’s get as flexible as we can. And we think that means he’s rehabbed.

Source:  EGOSCUE Portland

There are numerous tests and exercises that can be done.  For those interested, here is just one example:

Squat Jumps

Athlete will stand with feet shoulder width apart, spine neutral, eyes looking straight ahead with knee and hip joints flexed.  Hands are initially above the head to start a counter movement before the jump.  In a quick and controlled movement, the athlete will drive the arms down along the body and perform a squat.  When the athlete has reached parallel in their squat, they will rapidly extend through the hips and knees to perform a jump.  The athlete will land on the balls of their feet with knee and hip joints flexed to absorb the impact of the landing.  Complete 5-6 reps working toward perfect form every time.

Source:  Sparq Training

All of this seems so simple, but how can we be sure NBA players already aren’t taken the proper precautions to injury?  Well, Tim Grover discovered that one of the NBA’s best player over the last decade has been basically doing it all wrong – Tracy McGrady.

His whole body was imbalanced from basically his shoulder blades down to his feet,” Reavy says. “He was developing a lot of back problems … He was developing strength in an imbalanced fashion. And what I see in Tracy, in general, he had no core strength, he couldn’t hold a plank.

Source:  ESPN Chicago

According to Grover, it’s no wonder that McGrady has had to deal with so many injury issues during his career.  Since we still don’t know whether putting Tracy in the proper positions will eliminate his penchant for injury, we’ll look at a more suitable model of proper form and function leading to fewer injuries – the Phoenix Suns.

The Phoenix staff works to avoid player injuries by correcting body imbalances with flexibility exercises and corrective therapy. That process – like the Suns’ partnership with the Mesa-based National Academy of Sports Medicine – is nothing new. The Suns started it seven years ago. Three years later, they had cut injury treatments 62 percent.

Source:  AZCentral.com

Their most shining example has to be Grant Hill.  During a 5 year period (2000-05), Grant missed 275 games (that’s only 135 games played).  He was 33 and it appeared doctors had no solution in keeping his ankles and feet healthy.  Well, since becoming a Phoenix Sun, he has missed 12 games in the last 3 years.  Difficult to not be a believer!

Although it appears this new wave of prevention is gaining steam, it isn’t happening quickly enough.  This year we’ve been saddened by the season ending injuries of Greg Oden and Blake Griffin.  In addition, we may have witnessed Michael Redd’s last game played this year as he recently tore the same the knee ligaments he did a year ago.  I question how many more injuries have to occur before every team mandates their players receive the best training from the knowledge of human movement science, functional anatomy, physiology and kinesiology.

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Everything that follows is said with the utmost respect, as a true fan of Amare Stoudemire and the Phoenix Suns. After all, he has recovered from both the dreaded microfracture and an even more devastating freak eye injury, either of which would probably cause some players to consider retirement. The guy has been through a lot in his eight years of service on the front lines of the NBA. That’s what makes everything that has to be said that much more difficult.

But it needs to be said.

This season Stoudemire is averaging 20.9 points on .567/.756 percent shooting, 8.8 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 0.8 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.8 turnovers, which is right in line with his career averages, although admittedly down from his peak season (2007-08). However, it feels a little disappointing sometimes watching Amare play because he has all the physical gifts and basketball fundamentals to be one of the top five players in the game today. Top five. And yet he’s not.

What makes me sad is that the only thing keeping Amare from being a top five player in this league for the next five years is himself. It’s that simple. In fact, you can change the fate of the entire Phoenix Suns franchise from being a one-and-done playoff pushover to a legitimate contender in the loaded Western Conference in five easy steps.

1. Stop jawing at the referees.

Sometimes, you aren’t going to get the benefit of the doubt. Other times, you won’t get the superstar calls or the home cooking. You may even get downright screwed by the officials but talking to the refs never pays off for you, Amare. If you miss the bucket because you thought you were fouled and start talking instead of getting back you force your teammates to play five-on-four on defense. Which is a death sentence in the NBA, no matter who your opponent is.

If you have a legitimate gripe, cool off and let your diplomats, two-time MVP Steve Nash and the elder statesman Grant Hill, handle the situation with the officials during a dead ball. Or, let head coach Alvin Gentry take care of the situation in his own (sometimes belligerent) way. Better yet, channel that anger and frustration into intensity and focus on the court. Let those emotions be the motivation for you to elevate your game on both the offensive and defensive sides of the floor.

2. Avoid ticky-tack fouls and techs.

Once you start giving the refs the stink eye and getting in their ear, they become more likely to call ticky-tack fouls and technical fouls. It happens without fail. The referees are human, just like everyone else, and respond vindictively to negative treatment. These ticky-tack fouls are so costly for a couple of reasons. First, they remove your defensive presence out of the game by forcing you to not contest as many shots in order to avoid picking up further fouls. Fouls (for paint dwellers) should always be used to prevent a high percentage look or punish someone for trying to score in the paint. Otherwise, it is a wasted foul.

Even more importantly, these cheap fouls give other teams opportunities to pick up free points, which you just can’t do if you are a team that is notorious for giving up big leads to mediocre teams. For that reason alone, avoid technical fouls too. Techs are especially annoying because they are so easily preventable and more often than not lead to free points. It really is a cut and dried lose-lose situation. Especially in crunch time — the consequences are exponentially higher in crunch time.

3. Pursue every board and loose ball.

One of the few things that has been killing the Suns this season is the battle of the (defensive) boards. The Suns are a lowly 29th in the League in defensive rebounding rate, which is an estimate of the number of defensive rebounds a team snags while on the floor (ahead of only the Warriors). Remember, when you fail to get the defensive board you allow the other team second chance points. Giving up second chance opportunities severely limits a basketball team’s chances of winning (to put it nicely).

When a ball gets loose, sacrifice your body and hit the deck to reduce the number of second chances you allow opposing teams to have. When your team consistently loses the battle of the turnovers, you just can’t win against the League’s elite teams in a seven game series. Extra possessions are so costly. In games that are often decided by a only point or two, a defensive rebound or recovered loose ball early in the game truly can swing the outcome of a game or even an entire playoff series.

4. Contest every shot.

Good team defense starts with the point and ends with the center; these two positions anchor a team’s defense. Unfortunately for the Suns, their starting point guard is a defensive liability of the highest magnitude. Most Suns fans didn’t even realize how good Shawn Marion was at guarding his own man while also helping with Nash’s guy until he was playing in South Beach alongside Dwyane Wade. With no one to cover up Nash’s mistakes on the perimeter, players get more opportunities at higher percentage looks closer to the basket.

Especially at the rim. That is where it hurts the most and ironically is also where STAT can have the biggest impact. Right now, the Suns allow opposing teams to shoot .603 percent at the rim (good for 25th overall). For reference, the Celtics only allow .557 at the rim. Granted, the blame does not fall solely on your shoulders; fellow starting big man Channing Frye is equally culpable but gets more of a pass for being a little more grounded than you.

Following steps one and two would allow you, Mr. Stoudemire, the opportunity to make a much bigger impact while protecting the paint. By avoiding foul trouble and also the referees’ ire, you could be much more aggressive coming from the weak side altering shots and drawing charges in the lane to bail the guards out. These little things would help go a long way towards lifting the Suns from a terrible defensive squad to an average defensive team. Simply having an average defense would allow Phoenix’s league-leading offense a shot of winning the game night in and night out.

5. Demand the same from teammates.

Steps one through four are the easy steps as they amount to you matching the effort exerted on both ends of the floor. They involve you looking at yourself in the mirror and correcting some of the flaws in your game and thereby maximizing the Sun’s chance at success.

Step five is arguably more difficult than steps one through four combined, but is also arguably the most important of all of the steps. It is difficult because it requires leadership and comes with the often uncomfortable job of having to hold your teammates accountable for mistakes and mental lapses. It requires you to lead by example both during games and during practices.

As currently constructed, the Suns have solid defensive role players on the bench: Jared Dudley, Louis Amundson, Goran Dragic, Jarron Collins and Robin Lopez are all capable defenders. You, Amare need to set a high standard for yourself and the team and then everything else will fall in place. Nash is the unchallenged alpha dog on the offensive side of the floor. He he gives the Suns their identity, he makes them click. Conversely, you have the unique opportunity to do the same for the team on the other end of the floor.

For a role model, look no further than Boston’s Kevin Garnett; just don’t be such a dick. That’s not what Suns fans are about. He exemplifies the spirit of steps one through five, even though he may get carried away sometimes. The fact is, KG is intensely passionate and takes great pride in the work he puts in on defense. Many young big men could steal a page or two from his playbook.

You do this, steps one through five, and you give yourself and your franchise a chance to make a deep postseason run. You don’t and you are watching basketball in June from your couch, like the rest of us chumps. If you follow these simple steps, you’ll also play your way into a max contract and will be financially set for the rest of your life. It’s a win-win situation if you ask me but in the end the choice is Stoudemire’s and Stoudemire’s alone.

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Week 11 was dominated by the Gilbert Arenas saga finally coming to a head, leaving owners with tough decisions to make about whether to hold or fold their Agent Zero hand. More on that dilemma and the fantasy fallout below. Beyond that, we saw Danny Granger and Troy Murphy return to the starting lineup for the Pacers, altering the fantasy landscape in Indy for the thousandth time this season. Along with the Golden State Warriors, the Pacers have been one of the most unpredictable fantasy teams so far this season.

Season Tracker

The 2009-10 season is 44 percent complete.

Week 12 Schedules

Four Games: DET, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, NOR, NYK, OKC, PHX, SAS, UTA, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, ORL, PHI, SAC, TOR

Two Games: NJN, POR

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 38%) For some inexplicable reason, Hinrich is still under the 40% ownership threshold despite being moved into the starting unit recently. In his eight starts this season, Hinrich averaged 12.1 points on .412/.769 percent shooting, 2.1 threes, 4.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Another key statistic to look at with Captain Kirk is his three point percentage, as the Bulls are desperate for outside shooting. As a reserve, he has shot a pedestrian .322 percent from downtown. As a starter, he has shot an impressive .459 from long range. Hinrich deserves pretty much universal roster consideration.

Erick Dampier (C – 37%) For the entire season, Dampier is putting up top-100 value while providing decent production for a third or fourth string center. His season averages are 8.0 points on .667/.582 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 turnovers. Dampier is a four category specialist (FG%, REB, BLK, TOs) while being a negative in the remaining five categories. He finally appears to be getting healthy again after having to deal with “wear-and-tear” of the left knee. Give Damp a go if you are looking for traditional big man stats and can handle his low scoring.

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 27%) There has been widespread speculation that Gomes would be moved into Minnesota’s starting five sometime relatively soon. Regardless of whether or not he is starting, Ryan should get enough burn to provide fantasy value, especially for those looking for decent scoring off the waiver wire. Over the past two games, Gomes has averaged 15.0 points on .458/.875 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Gomes, while normally primarily simply a scorer, has shown flashes of stat-stuffing. Add Ryan if you have a dropable player to see if he can improve upon his recent strong play.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 21%) Some players just don’t get much respect, whether it be in real life or in fantasy basketball. Apparently, Rasual Butler is one of those players as his actual value and ownership percentage are definitely out of whack. Over the past two weeks, a period that saw Butler play in six games and average over 34 minutes per game, he posted top-50 value. During that period Rasual averaged 12.8 points on .467/.857 percent shooting, 2.5 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. Butler is a nice glue guy, providing a nice boost in threes on low turnovers while also providing decent blocks for a guard-eligible player.

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 21%) Another player that has had a nice run over the past two weeks is Matt Barnes. You may recall Barnes being featured in last week’s preview article by my distinguished colleague, RedHopeful. Pretty much everything Oleh said then still stands. Over the past two weeks, Matt has averaged 13.4 points on .600/.778 percent shooting,1.1 threes, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.4 turnovers.

Rafer Alston (PG – 18%) Alston has to feel like the luckiest player in the NBA right now; it is an absolute certainty. Rafer was waived by the league’s worst team, the 3-33 New Jersey Nets, and signed with the 18-16 Miami Heat, who are currently the fifth best team in the East. In his first game in a Heat uniform (this season), he immediatley leap-frogged both Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers and joined the starting unit. Skip is in line for big minutes for the Heat and should be a good choice for threes, assists and steals if you can handle his offensive field goal percentage.

Ronny Turiaf (PF/C – 6%) It’s always a gamble recommending any Golden State Warrior these days but Turiaf feels like a very strong player for a couple of reasons. First, Anthony “Everyone’s Favorite Sleeper” Randolph recently went down with an ankle injury with no official timetable released yet. However, the injury appears to be relatively serious so we can assume he’ll miss all of this week’s games. Second, fellow big man Andris Biedrins has struggled getting up to speed since returning from his groin injury that sidelined him for most of the season. By default, Turiaf becomes one of the Warriors primary big men in the rotation and he should be an excellent source of blocks off the wire.

Watch List

J.J. Redick (PG/SG – 16%) With Vince Carter out with an injured shoulder, Redick immediately gets upgraded to watch list status. In Carter’s absence, Redick posted a strong line against the Atlanta Hawks dropping 17 points on .583 percent shooting, 3 threes, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. He has even been praised by Coach Stan Van Gundy recently for his play throughout the entire season. In fact, Redick has been really solid over the past four games seeing over 28 minutes per and averaging 16.5 points on .422/.895 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.5 turnovers.

Flip Murray (SG – 5%) If you are looking for cheap scoring off the waiver wire, there may not be a better option out there than Murray. RIght now, Flip is locked-in and playing excellent basketball for the Bobcats. Over the past week, Ronald is ranked well inside of the top fifty players averaging 17.3 points on .550/.933 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.5 turnovers in four games. His percentages are excellent, making his scoring and threes that much more valuable.

A.J. Price (PG/SG – 1%) A.J. officially proved that he belonged in this league after being selected in the second round of this season’s draft. Price set multiple career-highs against the Thunder on Saturday including minutes played, points scored and threes made. In that watershed game, Price posted 23 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 3 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, o blocks and 2 turnovers. With the Pacers going nowhere this season and both Earl Watson and T.J. Ford playing themselves out of the rotation, Price is poised to carve himself a nice niche for the Pacers.

Deep League Special

Donte Greene (SG/SF – 4%) Greene’s window of opportunity is rapidly closing. With Kevin Martin due back sometime relatively soon, Greene will likely take a hit in touches, minutes and production. Thus, Donte should only be viewed as a short-term band-aid in deeper leagues. Over the past two weeks, he has put up top-100 value, making him an extremely valuable pickup in deep formats. In that same span, he averaged11.4 points on .489/1.00 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.0 turnovers.

Keyon Dooling (PG – 2%) At this point in his career, Dooling is a proven commodity, with a decade of experience in the Association. Playing for a relatively young and inconsistent team, he is a veteran presence on and off the court. While he is still rounding into game shape after having offseason hip surgery, Dooling finally showed signs of life recently when he dropped 21 points on the Hornets on Friday. His career per-36 minute stats are 13.3 points on .420/.798 percent shooting, 1.o threes, 2.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.1 turnovers and are a good guide if Dooling were to consistently get big minutes either due to injury of a teammate or simply due to the inconsistent play of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts.

Jon Brockman (SF/PF – 1%) If awesome nicknames were a fantasy category, the Brockness Monster would be a category carrier. But alas, we are left with having to rely on actual production on the basketball court. In that respect, Brockman’s toughness and football-like build have translated to him being an absolute beast on the boards and earning his fresh nickname (12.8 rebounds per-36 minutes). Recently, Brockman even got the starting nod against Denver pushing teammate and general fantasy disappointment Spencer Hawes to the bench. Grab the rebounding monster if you need help on the glass.

Cut List

Larry Hughes (SG/SF – 39%) The Knicks have won three of their last four games. Hughes has seen four consecutive DNP-CDs. Coincidence? I think not. Larry, welcome to Coach Mike D’Antoni’s dog house. Make yourself comfortable; you’re gonna be here a while.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 20%) It is hard to recommend a player for cutting who posted such nice fantasy value earlier in the season. However, barring a trade involving either Elton Brand or Samuel Dalembert, Speights is most likely going to be without fantasy value. If you want further proof that his run is (for now) over, check out his minute totals for his past four games: 6:22; 9:51; 12:01 and 11:11.

Luther Head (PG/SG – 12%) What a difference a week can make. Last week, he was on our Add List. This week he is on our Cut List. That is Luther Head’s career in a nutshell.

Buy Low

Caron Butler (SG/SF – 98%) With Agent Zero suspended indefinitely, Butler has moved up the food chain a notch in Washington. Butler’s best seasons of fantasy value have come with Arenas on the sidelines so there is hope to believe that he will resume his productive ways of the past (top five in per game value in 2007-08 when Arenas only played 13 games; top 30 in per game in 2008-09 when Arenas only played two games). At this point in the season, Butler has posted only top-75 value so it is a decent bet that he will have a much better second half of the season with Arenas most like done for the year.

Pau Gasol (PF/C – 99%) It may be hard to consider top ten player a buy low but that is exactly the case with Pau. Having missed a decent number of games this season with hamstring injuries on both legs, many owners are getting tired of the Lakers’ kid glove treatment of Gasol. When owners are frustrated or are struggling in the standings, you can often get a good deal for the right player. Throw out a solid second-round talent for Pau and see if the other owner bites. You may end up with one of the best big men in both fantasy and in real life.

Sell High

Samuel Dalembert (C – 64%) The problem with selling high is that nobody wants to do it because owning a hot player is so much fun. It’s why we play fantasy sports. However, with a guy like Sammie, if you can get enough value for him you have to pull the trigger. Over the past two weeks, Dally has been a top five talent. Stop and let that sink in. TOP FIVE. During that span, he has averaged 10.9 points on .667/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. He will never be able to keep this pace up for the rest of the season, especially not with Eddie Jordan waiting in the wings to screw everything up. SD is the qunitessential sell high right now.

Lamar Odom (SF/PF – 89%) With Pau out for at least one more game, your window to move Odom for maximum value is limited. Over the past week, Odom has been positively beastly, putting up a rugged 14.0 points on .548/.700 percent shooting, 0.8 threes, 15.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 turnover. Wow. In that span of four games, Odom has been a top ten player in per game value so throw out some trade offers and see if you can get a bona fide stud in return for Mr. Kardashian.

Mystery Man

Gilbert Arenas (PG – 73%) At only 73 percent ownership, the Great Arenas Exodus of 2010 has begun. Let’s face it, the chances of Gilbert playing again this season are slim. However, it is not so cut and dried as to whether he should be simply kicked to the curb; thus, Agent Zero is this week’s Mystery Man. In standard sized, non-keeper, head-to-head leagues Arenas can probably be safely dropped at this point. In roto leagues, where it is easier to carry dead weight, it probably makes sense to stick it out with Gil for a bit until we have more concrete timelines. In deeper formats, it makes more sense to hang on to Gibert if your team can afford to maintain a dead roster spot. Finally, in keeper and dynasty formats, dropping Arenas is not recommended until we hear exactly how harsh his final punsihment will be. Gilbert’s future with the Wizards and the League is truly a mystery at this point so weigh your options carefully before you decide to part ways with this dynamic guard.

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